The Presidential Election

Electoral College

Constitution

• USC calls for a presidential election every four years– 56 elections have been held like clock work since

1789• Even during civil war, two world wars,

economic depressions• Unmatched in world history

The Presidential Campaign

• Campaigns are organized chaos• Dominate the news for months leading up to

election day• Campaigns focus on swing voters and

battleground states• Also focus on Electoral College

Swing Voter

• People that have not made up their minds at the beginning of the race

• Approximately 1/3 of all voters• Are open to persuasion by

candidate

Battleground States

• States in which the race is too close to call• Either candidate could win.

Presidential Debates

• Debates are the highlight of the campaign• Both major parties now agree to them.• 1960 first debate between Richard Nixon and

John F. Kennedy

Nixon - Kennedy Debate

• Four televised debates– Basically joint appearances

• Credited with given Kennedy the edge it a very tight race

• Nixon did not come across well on T.V.

The Election

• Least understood point in American political process

• As people cast their votes – do not vote directly for President

• Instead vote for presidential electors

The Election

• Constitution provides for the election of the President by the Electoral College

• Framers expected electors to use their own judgment in electing president

• Today, electors are expected to vote for their party’s nominee

• Meet the Constitutional requirement – but far from how Framers intended!

Choosing Electors

• Electors are chosen by popular vote on the same day everywhere– The Tuesday after the first Monday in November

every fourth year. • In all states except Maine and Nebraska,

electors are chosen on a winner take all basis– Candidate that wins popular vote gets 100% of

electoral vote– Maine and Nebraska do proportional electoral vote

Counting Electoral Votes

• Constitution sets the date must be the same in all states.

• Monday after the second Wednesday in December

• Each state counts votes and send it by registered mail to the President of the Senate– Current Vice President**

• Counted before a joint session of Congress

If no Candidate Wins a Majority

• Need 270 of the 538 votes today to win• Election goes to the House of Representatives

to decide– 1800 – Thomas Jefferson & Aaron Burr– 1824 – John Quincy Adams & Andrew Jackson

• Each state is given one vote – today 26 votes required to win.

Flaws in the Electoral College

1. Winner of the popular vote is not guaranteed to win the presidency

2. Electors are NOT guaranteed to vote in accord with popular vote

3. Any election might have to be decided by House of Representatives

First Major Defect

• Winning popular vote doesn’t mean you are president

• Winner-take-all aspect of the electoral college– 2012: Obama wins Virginia’s 13 electoral votes win

1.8 million Virginians did not vote for him!• Two electoral votes granted to each state

regardless of population (Senators)– California – one electoral vote = 677,345 people– Montana – one electoral vote = 187,875 people

2000 Election

Al Gore• Popular vote = 50,999,897• Electoral Vote = 267

George W. Bush • Popular Vote = 50,246,002• Electoral Vote = 271

Bush v. Gore

• Brought an end to the contest 2000 race• Various methods of recounting Florida votes

was a violation of the equal protection clause of the USC

• 5-4 decision along party lines?• Gave Bush Florida’s 25 electoral votes • Bush won Florida by 537 votes

Second Major Defect

• Nothing in the Constitution requires electors to follow the popular vote

• Some states have laws requiring it– Probably unconstitutional though

Third Major Defect

• House of Representatives to choose in case non one wins majority of Electoral College

• Two Party system – happened twice

• With a strong third party race- highly likely to happen more often!

Third Major Defect

• Each state is given one vote• Every state has equal say regardless of

population!

Proposed Reforms

• The District Plan• The Proportional Plan• Direct Popular Vote*• National popular vote Plan

• * would require Constitutional amendment

District Plan

• Each state would choose electors as it does members of Congress

• Two electors would cast votes in line with state’s popular vote (Senators)

• States’ congressional districts would cast votes in line with district’s popular vote

• State must write law to put into effect– Maine and Nebraska now use this method

Proportional Plan

• Each candidate would receive a share of each State’s electoral vote equal to his or her share of the state’s popular vote.

• Candidate 62% of popular vote in a state with 20 electoral votes gets 12.4 electoral votes

• State must write law to put into effect

Direct Popular Election

• Abolish the Electoral College• Majority or plurality of voters in nation would

determine President• Negatives:– Requires Constitutional amendment– Candidates would focus on big states or cities– Potential voter fraud– Minorities would lose influence

National Popular Vote

• States to make changes to electoral college• Wouldn’t require a constitutional amendment• States electoral votes would go to the

candidate that wins national popular vote• Several states have agreed to this plan• Negatives:– Still disenfranchises those who did not vote for

winning candidate

In Defense of Electoral College

• It is a known process• System identifies the new president quickly

and certainly– Usually the night of national election

• Does present a major obstacle to a third party candidate– Helps promote the two-party system