- to phase out the sale of liquid skimmed milk for pig feeding gradually by reducing aid, and to cancel the scheme altogether within two years;

- to dispose of any surplus skimmed milk powder created by incidental downward fluctuations of total disappearance of non-fat dry matter through sales out of intervention stocks for pig feeding. These sales can be managed according to market developments; the sales of liquid skimmed milk cannot;

- to face any shortage of skimmed milk powder created by

incidental upward fluctuations of total disappearance of non-fat dry matter through sales out of intervention stocks for calf feeding;

- to keep intervention stocks at a minimum safety level of some 300,000 t.

I am aware that policy making in the dairy sector is considerably complicated by the existing surplus of milk fat. My approach has been based on the non-fat dry matter situation alone. The implications of the milk fat surplus I will gladly leave to somebody better qualified than I am.

The pull of the market place: identifying consumer needs STEPHEN W E L L S T h e Consumer Connect ion Limited, 16 Henriet ta Street, L o n d o n W C 2 E 8QH

Some of the techniques used in market research are described, whereby consumer needs are identified and guidance can be given on the development ofbrands to meet these needs. Quantitative and qualitative methods must be used together, with typicalconsumer representatives involvedat all stages in the generation, development and evaluation of new product proposals.

The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate how market research can identify consumer needs and then assist in the building of brands to meet these needs - and brands rather than products.

Emphasis will be placed on the practical aspects of setting up and conducting appropriate research. Particular emphasis will be given to the ways in which it is important to integrate qualitative methodologies, rather than use them separately.

The range of approaches covered is obviously not exhaustive but is illustrative of the ways in which consumers can become involved in the generation, development and subsequent evaluation of new product ideas. While the different approaches and techniques are described chronologically within the process, i t would, of course, be wrong to assume that every idea or project has to evolve in this particular way.

However, it is important to have a model of the approaches that can be used, and a notion of when they are best employed, in order that deviations from such a system can be challenged and then justified or otherwise.

AN OVERVIEW OF THE PROCESS The process is: - integrated: a ‘club sandwich’ of qualitative and quantitative

approaches; - sequential: cut-offs can occur a t any point, so that research

investment develops in line with company commitment; - not designed to be a ‘hurdle course’, concerned only with

the elimination of products with weaknesses. On the contrary, emphasis is placed on concept/product optimi- zation, so that ideas with flaws fall naturally by the wayside.

The stages in the process are shown diagrammatically in Figure 1 .

FOCUS ON SPECIFIC STAGES O F THE PROCESS ‘State of the nation’ research The purpose of this stage is to identify broad changes in consumer attitudes and behaviour to predict, where possible, what might happen in the future and to place in context more specific movements identified within defined areas of interest in

QUALITATIVE QUA N TITA TIVE

STATE OF THE NATION RESEARCH

(DESK RESEARCH)

GENERATIVE RESEARCH (USING EXTENDED CREATIV GROUPS)

BATCH RESEARCH

PRODUCT SCREENING (CENTRAL LOCATION

OR IN-HOME)

POSITIONING DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH

PRODUCT EVALUATIOF (IN-HOME)

PACK CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT

QUANTITATIVE PACK TESTING

ADVERTISING DEVELOPMENT

MARKETING MIX

\ TEST RESEARCH MARKET / NATIONAL LAUNCH

Fig. I . An overview of the research stages

50 Journal of the Society of Dairy Technology, Vol. 39, No. 2, April 1986

order to identify opportunity areas for new product development (NPD).

In practice, a further very important use of ‘state of the nation’ research has been further to elucidate movements recorded by panel research (eg, TCMNeilson) and to assist in the postulation of crude hypotheses concerning what might happen in the future, that is, a crude form of ‘gap analysis’.

The research can be undertaken either ad hoc to initiate a development project or on an annuallbiannual basis to provide continuous input for NPD activity.

It consists principally of extended group discussions, lasting around 2-2% h. The participating sample is very carefully selected to take account of important demographic and attitudinal factors, for example, sex, area, social class, age, working status, possession of children, home ownership, thriftiness and experimentalism.

- Broad attitudes to the economy/state of the nation; the way it is all seen to be going. What are the key indicators, eg, unemployment Y inflation v balance of payments v interest rates, etc.

- How is this affecting consumers on a personal basis; what has changed in the last year; and what is expected to occur in the next year (eg, holidays v durables v food v entertain- ment/leisure expenditure)?

- Reactions to quantitative data. Is there really more fruit juice being consumed and, if so, by whom and when? (What is the fate of Pot Noodles or of quarg?)

- Sorting of relevant markets into area of growth and decline. What are the key factors? To what extent does switching inter v intra markets occur?

Having identified a number of opportunities, there is then a need to explore these areas in greater depth. However, it is advisable a t this stage to conduct some desk research in order to identify the potential size of opportunity areas identified. Generative research using extended creative groups This is generally used at the beginning of a defined project to generate, and subsequently to screen to some extent, a large number of ideas within the defined area of the project. Furthermore, it involves consumers a t an early stage in the development process.

A limited number (almost always never more than four) of extended creative groups (ECGs) is used. Each group has the following characteristics: - Duration is 3-4 h. - Two group leaders are present. - There are eight respondents who are:

Question areas include:

- socially outgoing, - creative, - allocated to sub-groups of two respondents and en-

- Extensive use is made of projective techniques, eg, psycho- drawing, role playing, role confrontation, analogy; and of brainstorming/synectics techniques drawn from manage- ment science.

- Opportunities are provided for active participation by marketing, advertising and R & D personnel within these sessions. Creative people can also produce instant visual/ verbal material to introduce a further dynamic into the groups.

In addition to respondents generating new product ideas, there is the opportunity to screen (or use as building blocks for other concepts) a large number of product ideas, some of which should be a bit ‘loony’ in order to introduce more radical notions into the mix. Up to 30 have been handled with reasonable success; any more may become tedious.

The length of the session affords scope for synergy and product/brand development based on: consumers’ ideas, product samples, existing products and other creative input, which can usefully include advertising, in order to help identify an appropriate ‘mood’ for product ideas - the beginning of

couraged to get to know each other.

brand development. Each session generally culminates in a ‘forced fit’ of the best ideas, eg, a description of a market mix, including advertising.

In practice, one 01- two sessions are conducted and then formally reviewed before further ECGs are undertaken, often with modified materiaVformats.

At this stage benchlhome economist samples are often very useful in helping one to understand and develop an idea. Batch research The purpose of batch research is primarily to identify potentially fruitful ideas a t an early stage of development and also to provide input for the development of different positionings of these ideas, researched subsequently.

Up to a dozen ideas have been featured in this type of work, which is generally based on extended conventional group discussions, each lasting between 2 and 2% h.

Experience has shown that richer information tends to be produced when quite dissimilar ideas are featured. This means that: - respondents have no opportunity to give a ‘thumbs down’ to

- interest is maintained throughout a long session. Naturally careful respondent selection is important, but the

sample profile has to be sufficiently broad to allow full discussion of a wide range of subject matter.

The form of the stimuli is crucial. Essentially, concepts have to be seen to be ‘real’; tangible, even if rough. While ‘telling’ rather than ‘selling’, these stimuli must be emotionally as well as

an entire area;

rationally based - just like any brand.

‘conventional’ concept board is that shown in Figure 2. Experience has shown that the most useful form

BRAND NAME r ‘CONCEPT’

DESIGN

COPY LIVELY BUT NOT ,ADVERTISINGESE. ( >60 WORDS)

I SUMMARY LINE

of

Fig. 2. Typical concept board

From time to time other stimulus material has been used, including: - before and after boards, ie, problem/need stated on the first

board (and respondents’ spontaneous suggestions for solutions elicited), with full concept expressed on the second board (expressed much as described above);

- ‘spoof press releases’ consisting of words only with the editorial content adding verisimilitude and providing an opportunity for dletail;

- mock-up press advertisements can be useful when more emotionally based products are being developed.

Perhaps more than in any other work, in ‘batch research’ the commitment of the researcher to the development of ideas is crucial. The researcher must be very well briefed to become steeped in the subject. The researcher must then be prepared to think on hidher feet and to introduce instant variations to featured ideas during the course of the research.

Overall, the emphasis in this research should not be on screening out ideas but rather on giving full expression to the ability of consumers naturally to develop the more appealing ones

Journal of the Society of Dairy Technology, Vol. 39, No. 2, April 1986 5 1

Product screening Some feedback on product requirements will already have Seen derived from the qualitative batch work. Bench samples will have been produced.

Now is the time to get the product development programme under way. It is highly desirable that the same researchers undertake the product development work in order that the concept and product work is fully integrated, so that every opportunity is created for synergy. This reflects a widely held belief that every successful brand is based on a combination of emotional and rational product attributes.

This initial product screening stage can take many forms. If a large number of options (say, more than 617) are available, it then may take the form of a ‘Q sort’. But this allows little or no opportunity for sampling, the views of respondents being based on appearance and/or smell.

Alternatively, a taste test may take place at a central location. While this is satisfactory for one to six products, it is not really desirable for assessing products where convenience will play a large part in their success, for example, recipe products/con- venience foods, where the product performance can vary a great deal according to how and when the product is used.

In-home testing is preferable, but it is much more expensive, especially when a large number of product options is involved.

Of course, sensory testing based on magnitude estimation techniques can be an option, especially where an R & D department has a trained panel. The use of magnitude estimation provides an efficient way of screening options as well as setting guidelines for product optimization. But it is not a substitute for in-home testing. Positioning development research This defines the most appealing combination of claims and overall imagery for a product. It is not used to select one ‘winner’ from a number of conceptual approaches.

This research tends to take the form of conventional group discussions, each lasting for 1y4 to 1% h.

The sample structure must precisely reflect the intended target audience for the product, as, at this stage in the development process, this should have been defined fairly closely.

The stimuli used in this sort of research resemble those featured in ‘batch research’, ie, each combining some emotional and natural elements. Their form should encourage respondents to cross fertilize/‘mix ’n’ match’, ie, recombining product claims in pack configuration with brand names. In practice, four to five boards have worked well in this type of work.

Involving product trial has often proved very useful at this stage, either in the groups or in-home. A design involving the combination of pre-placement and repeat groups facilitates obtaining reactions:

PRODUCT- CONCEPT CONCEPT- PRODUCT

In this way: - the product is used as a further and compelling stimulus for

- areas of synergy and dissonance between product and

Product evaluation This is the time when options have been refined, based on feedback from the earlier stages of research, and the requirement is now to establish the extent to which the product can stand alone. In short, is it good enough? No imposed imagery will ever add sufficient value to sustain a poor product - certainly not long enough to make it profitable.

And so this evaluation has to be rigorous and diagnostic to facilitate subsequent product optimization. This stage of research is almost certain to involve: - in-home testing; - sufficiently large sample sizes to facilitate analysis by key

subgroups (eg, heavyllight users of the product field);

discussion and as a source of claidimagery; and

positioning can be identified at an early stage.

- the use of validated scales designed to provide an absolute

- monadic assessment of product(s); - some open-ended responses; and, preferably, - an element of extended usage. It is crucially important to set agreed action standards prior to the research taking place. Those involved in the project must then be prepared to retest revised formulations if necessary.

Pack concept development (qualitative) This is a stage at which key elements of the conceptual positioning are drawn and produced.

Its purpose is to define a pack design which communicates the core of the product’s appeal and distinctiveness, and which reflects the appropriate tonal qualities of the intended brand.

The development typically takes the form of conventional group discussions among key target consumers, defined on the basis of previous concept and product research in terms of usership, psychographics and demographics. Again, more than one qualitative project may be necessary before the correct balance of the pack is achieved. More than one candidate pack may then be taken forward to the next stage of research.

Quantitative pack development The qualitative pack research will have defined the emotional, factual and functional elements which are required in the pack design but it will not have established the effectiveness of the design in terms of impact and stand-out in a competitive store context, or communication of brand name and key productdbrand attributes.

This stage usually takes the form of a central location test, in which target consumers are exposed to the pack in a competitive context to determine impact, and then in isolation to establish more detailed aspects of communication.

Advertising development This wide and often contentious issue has, in itself, been the subject of many papers. Suffice it to say here that advertising development research is now almost exclusively qualitative in nature, as the issues being investigated tend not to be those which are susceptible to resolution by structured questioning. Little (pre-launch) research on finished commercials tends now to be conducted, given the lack offacility to change a film once it has been shot.

Early involvement in the NPD process by an advertising agency is often desirable, provided control of the project remains firmly in the hands of the manufacturer.

Marketing mix research This stage forms a dress rehearsal for the test market. It is not a ‘press preview’: frequently too many changes have still to be made to the marketing mix for such a finalization of details.

The underlying purpose of the marketing mix test is to identify areas of weakness and inconsistency in the total marketing mix, covering: - product positioning and imagery - packaging, advertising and price - in particular, investigating how product and the rest of the

- pinning down the precise profile of the key target audience - assisting in the setting of sales targets.

The marketing mix research is best conducted in two stages: firstly, a qualitative pilot test usually based on a combination of repeatlpre-placement conventional group discussions, which provides the opportunity for introducing a range of new material, if necessary, in order to optimize what is featured in the quantitative research; and, secondly, a quantitative project.

- recruitment of target consumers to a central location - viewing a finished/rough advertisement - exposure to the proposed pack

(as opposed to relative) evaluation;

mix interact

This quantitative research typically involves:

52 Journal of the Society of Dair,v Technology, Vol. 39, No. 2, April 1986

- placement of product for in-home trial - re-interviewing on reactions to product/concept - extended use/re-interviewing. The research design is very flexible so that it is possible to test a number of options using matched samples, for instance, two product options, two price levels.

Test market It is important to consider the test market as still part of the learning phase and one that, at least, is conducted in a ‘real life’ situation. For instance, there is now an opportunity to test different levels of advertising support, even different products within controlled test areas.

The key criterion of assessment in a test market is that of repeat purchase. It is in this area that pre-launch simulated work is at its weakest.

Quantitative test market measuring tools need to be developed in advance of the test launch in order that bench- mark data are provided. As in pre-launch quantitative research, the setting of action standards is critical if the research is to be effective as an aid to decision making.

Qualitative research (mainly in the form of in-depth interviews) among loyal users as well as rejectors can be particularly rewarding as a way of assisting in the fine tuning of a brand in preparation for national launch.

National launch This is, of course, the l’inal stage, to which everything has led. One must hope that, as a result of the previous work, it is a commercial success.

SOME CONCLUDING THOUGHTS It is necessary to avoid definitions of markets based on manufacture. Consumers should be invited to define the markets, so avoiding ‘marketing myopia’.

The whole NPD programme should be conducted in an environment where the best ideas can flourish. The ‘hurdle course’ mentality should be avoided, and consumers should be involved actively in the process so that i t is one of continuous learning.

‘Real’ stimuli should be used wherever possible, avoiding any stimuli that might be seen as over-intellectualized or over- rationahzed.

Qualitative and qmntitative research, product and concept work, should be integrated by using one team of researchers whose members are experienced in, and committed to, the new product development process.

‘Action standards’ :should be set to ensure that research is thought through.

Finally, the imposition of unnecessary time pressures should be resisted.

Milk and cream: a review of recent market trends PETER G HARRIS National Dairy Council, 5-7 John Princes Street, London W1M OAP

There have been substantial changes in the market for liquid milk in the past few years. Within an overall decline in consumption there has been a marked shvt to lower-fat milks. The market-for UHT milks is still low but is increasing. The cream market has also changed considerably, UHT cream now accounting for 20% of total sales. The reason is its long keeping quality. Fresh cream is still perceived as a quality product for use on special occasions.

The last few years have witnessed some of the fastest and most dramatic changes in the history of the household markets for milk and cream.

QUANTITY AND TYPE OF MILK Since 1980, the total liquid milk market in England and Wales has declined by 4% (Table l), or at an average of 1% per annum. The household market, representing just under 90% of the total, has shown a decline of 5.7%, the trend being towards more households of a smaller size, and per capita consumption is naturally down less a t 5.3%. There are a number of factors behind this trend, which began 10 years ago:

TABLE 1 Liquid milk market in England and Wales

1980 1984 % lo6 litres lob litres Change

Total liquid milk 6354 6107 -3.9 Consumption:

Households Per head per week

5702 5378 -5.7 3.8 3.6 -5.3

pints pints

Sources: M.M.B. AGB/Attwood

TABLE 2 Household purchases of milk (type shares)

1980 1985 %pt. (Aug.) Change

Whole Pasteurized Homogenized Sterilized Channel Island

Low fat Skimmed Semiskimmed

UHT

86.4 75.6 -10.8 3.3 2.8 - 0.5 5.5 4.3 - 1.2 2.4 1.3 - 1.1 0.3 0.6 + 0.3

0.6 i:: 14.4 +13.8

Others (eg, untreated) 1.4 1.1 - 0.3

Source: AGB/Attwomsd

- fewer young children, - more working housewives, so, - less milk is used in tea (milk’s highest usage area), - more substitutes, - heavy competition from carbonated and soft drinks

manufacturers, - considerable anti-fats publicity against dairy products.

It is perhaps surprising and encouraging how well the market has held up in face caf these trends.

Journal of the Society of Dairy Technology, Vol. 39, No. 2, April 1986 53