The Punter

Issue 1— Spring

Featuring — Cheltenham, The Lincoln, Grand National & Look

Ahead To The Flat Season

My name is Lee Keys and I would like to wish you a warm welcome to the first edition of ‘The Punter.’ This will hopefully be the first of many quarterly publications and I hope that you will gain knowledge and a lot of pleasure from reading this publication.

‘The Punter’ will be co-written with fellow betting

professional Guy Ward, whom I’m sure some of you will know as ‘Maths.’ I’ve known Guy several years and in my opinion he is the best judge I have come across when it comes to flat racing. In this issue Guy tackles The Lincoln and looks forward to the 2003 Flat turf season while I will be providing an extensive preview of the Cheltenham Festival and taking an ante post view on the Grand National. There are also articles from freelance writers and other betting professionals, covering different aspects of the horse racing world. I hope you find this issue an enjoyable and informative read. Lee Keys Editor

Index

Websites: http://www.prostaking.com http://www.mathematician-betting.co.uk E-mail: lee.keys@prostaking.com guy@mathematician-betting.co.uk

Cheltenham Festival Preview

Supreme Novices Hurdle 3 The Arkle 4 Champion Hurdle 6 William Hill Nat Hunt Handicap Chase 8 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Handicap Chase 9 Pertemps Handicap Final 10 Tuesday Summary 11 Royal & Sun Alliance Novices Hurdle 12 Royal & Sun Alliance Chase 14 Queen Mother Champion Chase 16 Coral Cup 18 National Hunt Chase 19 Mildmay Of Flete Handicap Chase 20 Weatherbys Champion Bumper 21 Wednesday Summary 22 JCB Tiumph Hurdle 23 Bonusprint Stayers Hurdle 25 Tote Cheltenham Gold Cup 27 Christies Foxhunters Chase 29 Grand Annual Handicap Chase 30 Cathcart Challenge Cup 31 County Hurdle 32 Thursday Summary— Competition 33 David Greenwood’s Cheltenham Preview 34 Grand National Ante Post Preview 40

Look Ahead To The Flat

Beginners Guide To The Flat 43 The Pitfalls Of Horse Ownership 47 Lincoln Handicap Preview 50 Newmarket Workwatcher 64 The Sprint King 66 Analysis Of Racing Tipsters 69 1000 Guineas Ante Post Preview 78 No Risk Arbitrage Exchange Betting 88

2:00 Gerrard Wealth Management Supreme Novices' Hurdle (Class A) Grade 1 (4yo+) 2m½f (2m110y)

Recent Trends: Year Form Horse Age Wt SP Trainer ‘02 1111 Like A Butterfly 8 11-3 7-4F C Roche (Ire) Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Deloitte & Touche Novices Hurdle (30) ‘00 11 Sausalito Bay 6 11-8 14-1 N Meade (Ire) Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Naas Novice Hurdle (44) ‘99 111 Hors La Loi 4 11-0 9-2 M C Pipe Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Wragge & Co Finesse Hurdle (45) ‘98 31 French Ballerina 5 11-3 10-1 P Flynn (Ire) Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Navan Maiden Hurdle (34) ‘97 11 Shadow Leader 6 11-8 5-1 C Egerton Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Newbury Novices Hurdle (31) ‘96 311 Indefence 5 11-8 25-1 Mrs J Pitman Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Nottingham Novices Hurdle (31) ‘95 02134 Tourist Attraction 6 11-3 25-1 W Mullins Last Race (No Of Days) 4th Punchestown Novice Final (23) ‘94 10143 Arctic Kinsman 6 11-8 50-1 N Twiston-Davies Last Race (No Of Days) 3rd Dovecote Novices Hurdle (17) ‘93 12 Montalcino 6 11-8 5-1 P Flynn (Ire) Last Race (No Of Days) 2nd Leopardstown Novices Hurdle (79) Key Statistics: We’re looking for a horse placed or preferably successful on it’s last start. Ideally a lightly raced 5 or 6 yo that is reasonably fresh and not raced within thirty days— if trained in Ireland then all the better.

The Brief

Edward O’Grady saddles likely favourite BACK IN FRONT, who is currently trading at the rather skinny price of 5/2. That said it’s difficult to knock the claims of the favourite, who finished over thirteen lengths in front of chief market rival Thisthatandtother in the Champion bumper at the festival last year. His progression over hurdles has been quite marked— starting back in November when an excellent second to Royal & Sun Alliance Hurdle leading fancy Hardy Eustace in a Grade 1 Hurdle. He looked in good shape when trouncing some decent looking novices at Limerick last time and certainly has the pace to cope with the demands of a race like this. Also to his advantage is his effectiveness on all types of ground and it’s difficult not to envisage a very bold showing— rates the strongest chance of the meeting for me. A THISTHATANDTOTHER victory will no doubt have implications on the Champion Hurdle market as Rhinestone Cowboy easily brushed him aside at Wincanton. On what he’s actually achieved over hurdles this year, Paul Nicholls’ charge is entitled to be favourite but I just don’t think the horse has any more Improvement in the locker. That coupled with the fact that Back In Front thrashed him in the Champion bumper last year and Paul Nicholls’ dreadful record at the Festival (just 3/69). Couple that with the fact that just two seven year olds have been successful since 1973 and it’s hardly the ideal profile. However before you start logging onto the exchanges I do not recommend laying Thisthatandtother. The main rea-son being that these two stand head and shoulders above what is a very weak looking field. If you take into account that the Martin Pipe trained Puntal is sixth in the betting at 12/1 that tells you the strength of

Conclusion With ground conditions of no concern to BACK IN FRONT he has to be the selection and should prove difficult to beat. If 3/1 became available on the day then I would be stepping in but I think this is most

BEST ODDS: Back in Front 5/2 Thisthatandother 6/1 Kicking King 10/1 Well Chief 10/1 Joeur D'Estruval 12/1 Puntal 14/1 Inca Trail 14/1 Tardar 16/1 Mutakarrim 20/1 Rosaker 20/1 Lirfox 20/1 Chauvinist 20/1 Mise Rafturai 25/1 Supreme Developer 25/1 Arch Stanton 25/1 Jaboune 33/1 Limerick Boy 40/1 Khetaam

2:35 Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Chase (Class A) Grade 1 (5yo+) 2m

Recent Trends: Year Form Horse Age Wt SP Trainer ‘02 F111F Moscow Flyer 8 11-8 11-2 Mrs J Harrington (Ire) Last Race (No Of Days) Fell Baileys Arkle (44) ‘00 11 Tuitchev 7 11-8 8-1 N J Henderson Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Sandown Novices Chase (66) ‘99 21221 Flagship Uberalles 5 11-0 11-1 P Nicholls Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Kingmaker Novices Chase (24) ‘98 11311 Champleve 5 11-0 13-2 M C Pipe Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Ascot Novices Chase (34) ‘97 112 Or Royal 6 11-8 11-2 M C Pipe Last Race (No Of Days) 2nd Noel Novices Chase (70) ‘96 112F2 Ventana Canyon 7 11-8 7-1 E O’Grady (Ire) Last Race (No Of Days) 2nd IAWS Novices Chase (22) ‘95 F1211 Klairon Davis 6 11-8 7-2F A Moore (Ire) Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Baileys Arkle (43) ‘94 11 Nakir 6 11-8 9-1 S Christian Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Huntingdon Novices Chase (31) ‘93 1B11 Travado 7 11-8 5-1 N J Henderson Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Kempton Novices Chase (52) Key Statistics: Ideally a horse that finished first or second on it’s latest start. The horse should be aged between five and seven and not had a run less than three weeks beforehand.

The Brief

AZERTYUIOP heads the market for a small but select renewal of The Arkle. At the time of writing just ten will go to post but even still at 13/8 this is possibly the worst value I’ve seen at the festival. His claims are there for all to see and he has looked most impressive in his outings over fences to date. He’s a French bred that has all the right tools to become a champion, is blessed with a turn of foot and has obvious claims of boosting his trainer Paul Nicholls’ dismal festival record. If I lay Azertyuiop on the betting ex-changes then it is not because I don’t like his chances, simply that his price is too short. My Idea of the Arkle winner is the Hen Knight trained IMPEK, who even now at the time of writing looks good value at 5/1 or bigger. This horse has always promised to be a superstar but has often come up short. However the switch to fences appears to have done the trick because he’s yet to taste defeat—putting up his most impressive performance last time when defeating latest market springer Le Roi Miguel. It was a performance that really left a mark in my mind as at the time Le Roi Miguel was supposedly the equal of Azertyuiop in the Paul Nicholls pecking order. Yet Impek overcame connections fears about the soft ground and the weight for age and penalty concession of eleven pounds to his younger rival. From a form perspective he is the equal of Azertyuiop if taking that performance literally. Why is he 5/1? - There are many that say that Impek cannot go left handed (beaten in all four starts left handed— albeit over hurdles) and the fact that he’s looked tricky at the start. I do not see the latter as a problem because he’s jumped off on each occasion he’s played up and given not an inch of ground away in the process. The left handed theory hangs in my mind until he can prove otherwise. At 13/8 and 5/1 there is no comparison. I’ve already backed Impek ante post at 7/1 so I won’t be getting involved further on the day. ADAMANT APPROACH is the principal hope of the Irish and despite his nine years of age tag not fitting into the correct statistics, he should not be written off. He was very impressive on his last start just after Christmas and has always appealed as the type to do better over fences than hurdles. However more of a concern is the form of his trainer Willie Mullins, whose yard is having a touch time of late and that would put me off at around the 5/1 mark. LE ROI MIGUEL fits the criteria statisically of an Arkle winner but one has only to look at the Sandown

The Brief

form to see that Le Roi Miguel has it all to do with Impek. That said he’s a young horse and there’s further room for improvement. He has pace to burn and the recent money for the horse is quite justified at odds of 16/1 (currently 10/1) and he could be the dark horse of the race. I was suitably impressed with HAND INN HAND at Kempton last time but his effectiveness at today’s trip in this company has to be put into question. The trip at Kempton was two miles and five furlongs, that said he would have probably won had it been two miles. Henry Daly has already said that he would be re routed to the Cathcart should conditions be on the quick side and despite him being a really nice prospect I can’t entertain him here. ISIO has been brought along quietly by Nicky Henderson and could well be the fly in the ointment. He’s impressed with the way he jumps and travels and his trainer knows exactly what it takes to win an Arkle having recent success with Travado and Tuitchev. His overall form is obviously below that of most of this field but he has yet to be tested and the only way we will find out how good he is, is on Tuesday. FARMER JACK smart as though he is does not look good enough to win an Arkle and his current odds of 5/1 look way too short with regards to this opposition and I will be laying him at around this price.

Conclusion

I’ve already backed IMPEK for the Arkle at 7/1 and he rates as the value and the bet form me at a current price of around 5/1. Azertyuiop has just about the best claims in the race but at 13/8 I will be a layer (favourites don’t have a great record in this race). Another I will also be taking on at his current price is Farmer Jack, who looks a notch short of being an Arkle winner— he makes no appeal at around 5/1.

BEST ODDS: Azertyuiop 7/4 Farmer Jack 13/2 Adamant Approach 7/1 Impek 7/1 Isio 10/1 Bust Out 12/1 Montalcino 16/1 Hand Inn Hand 16/1 Le Roi Miguel 16/1 Vol Solitaire 20/1 Telemoss 25/1 Stage Af-fair 25/1 The Gatherer 33/1 Stars Out Tonight 33/1 Tysou 40/1 Ricardo 100/1

3:15 Smurfit Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy Showcase Race (Class A) Grade 1 (4yo+) 2m½f (2m110y)

Recent Trends: Year Form Horse Age Wt SP Trainer ‘02 2331 Hors La Loi III 7 12-0 10-1 J R Fanshawe Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Kingwell Hurdle (19) ‘00 1211 Istabraq 8 12-0 8-15F A P O’Brien (Ire) Last Race (No Of Days) 1st AIG Champion Hurdle (51) ‘99 1111 Istabraq 7 12-0 4-9F A P O’Brien (Ire) Last Race (No Of Days) 1st AIG Champion Hurdle (51) ‘98 1111 Istabraq 6 12-0 3-1F A P O’Brien (Ire) Last Race (No Of Days) 1st AIG Champion Hurdle (51) ‘97 20111 Make A Stand 6 12-0 7-1 M C Pipe Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Tote Gold Trophy (31) ‘96 11 Collier Bay 6 12-0 9-1 J A B Old Last Race (No Of Days) 1st AIG Champion Hurdle (51) ‘95 1 Alderbrook 6 12-0 11-2 K C Bailey Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Kingwell Hurdle (19) ‘94 21131 Flakey Dove 8 11-9 9-1 R J Price Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Berkshire Hurdle (9) ‘93 223 Granville Again 7 12-0 13-2 M C Pipe Last Race (No Of Days) 3rd Christmas Hurdle (78) Key Statistics: Ideal profile here is a last time out winner that is a single figure price in the betting aged between six and eight.

The Brief

Twelve of the last thirteen Champion Hurdlers had won on their latest start— of the horses that are less than 20-1 in current bookmakers lists only Hors La Loi and Landing Light fail to match this criteria. Certainly this is the most intriguing Champion Hurdle that I can remember. RHINESTONE COWBOY is the novice that everyone is talking about, Will he won’t he?. His form to date does not entitle him to win a Champion Hurdle but it is the manner of his victories that suggest that we could have the next Istabraq upon us. The one major concern for me is his hurdling, in each of his races to date there has been at least one bad mistake. The pace they go in the Champion Hurdle is usually fre-netic and that will certainly put extra pressure on that department. There is one thing for certain whether the ‘Cowboy’ is successful or not— his current odds of 2-1 look far from generous given that he’s yet to take on any horse outside of Novice company. His defeat of Thisthatandtother at Wincanton was blood-less and his starting price will very much depend how that horse performs in the Supreme Novices Hurdle earlier on in the day. If Thisthatandtother wins then Rhinestone Cowboy will go off around the 2-1 mark but I can see him drifting right out to around 7-2 should that horse disappoint. We should also take into account trainer Jonjo O’Neill’s comments as he rates stablemate Intersky Falcon the better of the two but that is certainly open to question. If my life depended on it and I was popped the question— Are you a layer or a player at 2-1 then I’m a definite layer. INTERSKY FALCON is the preferred choice of trainer Jonjo O’Neill who has been quick to jump on journalists who think that the Champion is just a one horse race. My own personal feelings is that he shouldn’t be a shorter price than Rooster Booster whose form looks slightly superior. The key for me will be the ground. If it’s soft then I’m pretty sure Rooster Booster will beat him, if it comes up good or quicker then he could be really dangerous. In my opinion the quicker ground will suit this horse far better than his major rivals and his quick hurdling and front running tactics will make him a hard horse to pass. ROOSTER BOOSTER is arguably still overpriced after showing a level of form this season way beyond anything he’s achieved in the past. His best performance and the best form of any in this field came when he beat the Jonjo O’Neill trained Quazar in a handicap hurdle over course and distance giving that horse

The Brief

eighteen pounds in weight and a nine length thrashing. That performance really does stand out along with the fact that he loves Cheltenham with the hill really playing to his hold up tactics. He seems to relish a strong pace as he proved when hacking up in the County Hurdle last year and providing there is enough juice in the ground to slow down the speed merchants in front then he’s going to prove very dangerous in the closing stages. Without a doubt he makes more appeal than his principal rivals at this stage at odds of around 6-1. LIKE A BUTTERFLY like Istabraq won the AIG Champion Hurdle on her latest start battling on in tena-cious fashion to get the better of the brilliant Limestone Lad in the closing stages. She is unquestionably an outstanding mare but unless conditions place a sufficient emphasis on stamina then she should be overlooked. After all on good ground on the first day last year she would probably have been beaten in The Supreme Novices and will almost certainly be found wanting in this field given similar conditions. FLAME CREEK is the apple of Noel Chance’s eye at the moment and I keep getting drawn to the fact that the big man turned down the chance of a penalty kick in the Tote Gold Trophy to give the horse the best possible chance of being trained to the minute and fresh for the big one. He’s always maintained that Flame Creek would be top class but primarily as a chaser rather than a hurdler. He’s certainly in this race on merit though like the favourite Rhinestone Cowboy has plenty to prove in terms of form and hurdling ability. Chance has always maintained that this horse would improve for better ground yet the smart form he’s shown has been on soft ground. So there could be and should be plenty of improvement in the locker and I would rather back this horse at the 12/1 available than take the 2/1 about the ‘Cowboy’. I will be surprised if any of HORS LA LOI, LANDING LIGHT or MARBLE ARCH prove good enough this time round. Hors La Loi won arguably the worst Champion Hurdle in living memory last year where Istabraq pulled up after two flights and surely Valiramix would have eaten them all for breakfast had he not broken down approaching two out. Landing Light for me has regressed and Marble Arch, who probably has the best prospects of this trio is always likely to come up short at this level.

Conclusion

I’ve already backed ROOSTER BOOSTER at 7-1 each way and that is where my money would still be at this stage. The result of this race very much depends on under foot conditions, if it rides fast then I would definitely have a saver on INTERSKY FALCON. I am also looking to lay RHINESTONE COWBOY on the exchanges at around the 2-1 mark because I cannot see the horse going off any shorter, he looks poor value at this price. Likewise under quickish conditions I will also be laying LIKE A BUTTERFLY place only via the exchanges. If you are after a bigger priced selection then I would put up FLAME CREEK, who although has plenty to prove is in very capable hands and could be ‘that something special.’

BEST ODDS: Rhinestone Cowboy 9/4 Intersky Falcon 4/1 Rooster Booster 6/1Like-A-Butterfly 9/1 Flame Creek 14/1 Hors La Loi 16/1 Landing Light 18/1 Marble Arch 20/1 Puntal 25/1 Laveron 25/1 Ada-mant Approach 33/1 Copeland 33/1 Westender 33/1 In Contrast 33/1 Santenay 33/1 Scottish Memories 40/1 Scolardy 50/1 Self Defense 100/1 Holy Orders 100/1 Bob What 100/1

4:00 William Hill National Hunt Handicap Chase (Class A) Grade 3 (5yo+) 3m½f (3m110y)

Recent Trends: Year Form Horse Age Wt SP Trainer ‘02 133 Frenchmans Creek 8 10-5 8-1 H Morrison Last Race (No Of Days) 3rd Great Yorkshire Chase (45) ‘00 PU12 Marlborough 8 10-3 11-2 N J Henderson Last Race (No Of Days) 2nd Racing Post Chase (17) ‘99 10 Bettys Boy 10 10-2 25-1 K C Bailey Last Race (No Of Days) Upl Mildmay/Cazalet Chase (66) ‘98 042F4 Unguided Missile 10 11-10 10-1 G Richards Last Race (No Of Days) Upl Ladbroke Trophy (45) ‘97 P1P Flyers Nap 11 11-2 20-1 R Alner Last Race (No Of Days) Upl Singer & Friedlander Ch (31) ‘96 U121 Maamur 8 10-0 13-2 Capt T Forster Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Forbra Gold Cup (12) ‘95 332 Rough Quest 9 10-3 16-1 T Casey Last Race (No Of Days) 2nd Wincanton Hcap Chase (5) ‘94 2F141 Antonin 6 11-10 4-1F Mrs S Bramall Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Racing Post Chase (17) ‘93 2P1 Givus A Buck 10 10-8 11-2 D R C Elsworth Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Newbury Hcap Chase (11) Key Statistics: Experience holds the key here and horses aged between eight and ten and an appearance at either a Grade 1 track or in a decent handicap last time holds sway. The Irish have a poor recent record in this event.

The Brief

For me this race throws up the best bet of the meeting from a ‘Value’ point of view. The Jonjo O’Neill trained JOSS NAYLOR looks an outstanding wager at around the 7 or 8-1 mark and I can easily see this going off no bigger than around 4-1. Jonjo O’Neill’s improving chaser has the perfect profile for this race being an eight year old with good form at a Grade 1 track last time out. Six of the last eleven winners had already been successful at Cheltenham. Joss Naylor has the look of a handicap snip off his current weight of 10-9 after his defeat of Sun Alliance and Cathcart contender Tarxien. Last season he finished a good second to Ilnamar in the Coral Cup over hurdles under soft conditions. He could well have further Improvement over fences and in time should prove much better than a handicapper. The one negative could be the ground as he wouldn’t want conditions on the quick side but at this stage it doesn’t look like being fast ground on the Tuesday so there should be no problems. I will be covering the handicaps in greater detail in the daily dossier which is FREE— just register at http://www.prostaking.com for daily updates throughout the Cheltenham meeting.

Conclusion

If you can get the 8-1 about JOSS NAYLOR for this race then take it because this horse will be one of the steamers of the meeting. He has an outstanding chance at the weights and with luck in running it’s hard not to see him going close. Rates the best bet of the meeting for me from a value perspective.

BEST ODDS: Joss Naylor 7/1 Ad Hoc 12/1 Youlneverwalkalone 12/1 Youre Agoodun 14/1 Montreal 14/1 Harbour Pilot 16/1 Horus 16/1 Foly Pleasant 20/1 Bounce Back 20/1 Southern Star 20/1 Haut Cercy 22/1 Foxchapel King 22/1 Exit To Wave 25/1 Historg 25/1 Shamawan 25/1 Royal Auclair 25/1 Carbury Cross 25/1 Risk Accessor 33/1 Royale de Vassy 33/1 Burlu 33/1 Iznogoud 33/1 First Gold 33/1 Satchmo 33/1 Maximize 33/1 The Bunny Boiler 33/1 - others 40/1 or more

4:40 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Amateur Riders) (Class B) (5yo+,0-140) 3m½f (3m110y)

Recent Trends: Year Form Horse Age Wt SP Trainer ‘02 1 The Bushkeeper 8 11-2 9-2F N J Henderson Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Huntingdon Hcap Chase (19) ‘00 12341 Honey Mount 9 9-12 8-1 R Alner Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Forbra Gold Cup (12) ‘99 1 Celtic Giant 9 10-0 20-1 L Lungo Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Musselburgh Hcap Chase (17) ‘98 42220 In Truth 10 9-9 20-1 S Gollings Last Race (No Of Days) Upl Grimethorpe Hcap Chase (10) ‘97 3322 King Lucifer 8 11-5 7-2 D Nicholson Last Race (No Of Days) 2nd Racing Post Chase (17) ‘96 22212 Stop The Waller 7 9-11 16-1 F Murphy Last Race (No Of Days) 2nd Kelso Hcap Chase (11) ‘95 11102 Flyers Nap 9 9-10 11-1 R Alner Last Race (No Of Days) 2nd Sandown Hcap Chase (25) ‘94 23310 Fighting Words 8 10-0 9-2F J T Gifford Last Race (No Of Days) Upl Racing Post Chase (17) ‘93 22323 Strong Beau 8 9-8 6-1 D Nicholson Last Race (No Of Days) 3rd Huntingdon Hcap Chase (33) Key Statistics: We’re looking for a lightly weighted eight or nine year old ideally at least placed on it’s latest start. Recent form appears to be important and horses should have ran within the last month. Another race where the Irish give best to their British counterparts.

The Brief

At this stage I would be looking to side with the Paul Webber trained SPINOFSKI, who looks to be a stronger and better chaser this year. This half brother to Party Politics was on the weak side when first sent over fences a couple of years ago. His last two starts have convinced me that he’s finally fulfilling his potential and I was particularly impressed with the way he kept on behind Ibis Rochaelais at Sandown last time. Ibis Rochelais is currently 7-1 favourite for this race but the selection is six pounds better off for three lengths and more crucially has proved that he goes well for an amateur rider in the past. He was going well in this race last year when virtually brought down at the twelfth and was sent off a well backed 15-2 chance. Another year on his back and coming into the race with a stronger profile tempts me to back him at around the 12-1 mark. IBIS ROCHELAIS is closely matched with Spinofski but the weight pull, price and age factor give the edge to the selection. Only one seven year old has been successful in the last twelve runnings and although he looks as if further improvement is on the cards I can see him found wanting from an experience point of view. *Stay clear of the Irish in this race— There has been no Irish trained winner since 1983.

Conclusion

Nothing concrete at this stage but SPINOFSKI is my idea at this stage as one who could run very well. Whatever the scenario anything at around 12-1 or bigger is value and I will be having a small play at those

BEST ODDS: Ibis Rochelais 7/1 Putsometnby 9/1 Silver Steel 10/1 Spinofski 12/1 Moor Lane 12/1 Back On Top 14/1 Rith Dubh 14/1 Samuel Wilderspin 14/1 Timbera 14/1 Burlu 16/1 Fnan 16/1 Montreal 16/1 Jurancon II 16/1 Kemal's Council 20/1 I Can Imagine 20/1 Turn Two 20/1 Ceanannas Mor 20/1 Skippers Cleuch 20/1 Red Guard 20/1 Carryonharry 20/1 Katarino 20/1 Lord Jack 20/1 Tonocco 20/1 Royale De Vassy 20/1 - others 25/1 or more

5:20 Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle) (Class A) (Listed Race) (5yo+) Winner £ 3m1½f (3m1f110y)

Recent Trends: Year Form Horse Age Wt SP Trainer ‘02 341 Freetown 6 11-2 20-1 L Lungo Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Ayr Novices Chase (31) ‘00 41001 Rubhahunish 9 11-2 8-1 N Twiston-Davies Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Tote Scoop Six Hcap Hurdle (38) ‘99 200 Generosa 6 10-1 12-1 J Hassett (Ire) Last Race (No Of Days) Upl Pierse Hurdle (66) ‘98 111 Unsinkable Boxer 9 10-12 5-2F M C Pipe Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Doncaster Novices Hurdle (45) ‘97 31F1 Pharanear 7 11-9 14-1 D Nicholson Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Rendlesham Hurdle (17) ‘96 00211 Great Easeby 6 10-1 7-1 W Storey Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Kempton Hcap Hurdle (53) ‘95 111 Miracle Man 7 10-11 9-2F C Weedon Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Tote Scoop 6 Hcap Hurdle (38) ‘94 003 Tindari 6 10-9 20-1 J M Jefferson Last Race (No Of Days) 3rd Wetherby Hcap Hurdle (38) ‘93 41131 Fissure Seal 7 11-4 14-1 H De Bromhead (Ire) Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Fairyhouse Hcap Hurdle (16) Key Statistics: Horses aged between six and nine that were succesful on their latest start and come into the race relatively fresh. Those not raced for a month or more doing best suggesting that they have been laid out for the race.

The Brief

Hot favourite for the race IRIS GIFT will be all the rage in certain quarters and he appears to be thriving at the minute. So much so that connections are still considering the Stayers Hurdle, although Jonjo is apparently more in favour of going for this race. From a form point of view Iris Gift looks strong after defeating the useful Tees Components in most impressive fashion on his last start. However looking at the profile of past winners Iris Gift certainly has a fair bit to do. He is set to carry 11-12 in this, which is certainly not beyond him but horses coming into the race after a break fare better and Iris Gift can hardly have been laid out for the race in running so close to the festival. He makes no appeal to me at around the 9-2 mark! Instead I have an inkling for the likely O’Neill second string in INCHING CLOSER, who looks decidedly unexposed and looks the type who could improve into a useful staying handicapper. Inching Closer hasn’t been seen out since hacking up over two and a half miles at Haydock in February. The form of which looks pretty good after subsequent wins from Deep Water and a 2nd place from Talarive. The ease at which he did it that day was most taking and he literally could be anything. A useful performer on the flat he was first purchased for 50,000 guineas from Neville Callaghan and then sent to Ferdy Murphy, who managed to get a win out of him on his final start at Sedgefield before he moved on to Jonjo. He’s a versatile horse with regards to ground and trip and his hold up tactics will prove beneficial in a race such as this. At current prices he looks worth a small interest.

Conclusion

I’m a layer of IRIS GIFT at current prices of around 9-2 and I’ll be having a small interest at the 10-1 available about INCHING CLOSER, who is unexposed and looks more than capable of upsetting his

BEST ODDS: Iris's Gift 9/2 Ravenswood 6/1 Chopneyev 8/1 Keepatem 8/1 Inching Closer 10/1 Farinel 14/1 Rostropovich 14/1 Royal Emperor 14/1 Perkys Pride 16/1 Creon 16/1 Rapid Deployment 20/1 Fair-wood Heart 20/1 Native Estates 22/1 Proper Squire 22/1 Moss Harvey 25/1 No Discount 25/1 Ballylusky 25/1 Jacdor 25/1 Dubai Seven Stars 25/1 Guard Duty 25/1 - others 33/1 or more

Where’s My Money Going At The Festival — Tuesday (Day One)

A mythical £100 is given to me to bet on each day at the festival. The idea is to show a profit over the three days and hopefully it will give you a guide to my confidence levels on each race. 2.00 - BACK IN FRONT £30 WIN 2.35 - IMPEK £10 WIN 3.15 - ROOSTER BOOSTER £10 EACH WAY 4.00 - JOSS NAYLOR £20 WIN 4.40 - SPINOFSKI £5 EACH WAY 5.20 - INCHING CLOSER £10 WIN Total Stake: £100

The ‘Punter’ is YOUR magazine, without your input it wouldn’t exist so please feel free to e-mail us your views and comments on what YOU would like to see in the magazine. E-mail Lee Keys or ‘Maths’ at; lee.keys@prostaking.com guy@mathematician-betting.co.uk We will be pleased to hear from you. Also if you are a budding journalist and feel that you can add to the overall quality of ‘The Punter’ then we would also like to hear from you. If you’re THAT GOOD you might even get paid for your efforts, so please feel free to e-mail either Lee or ‘Maths’ at the addresses above.

2:00 Royal & SunAlliance Novices' Hurdle (Class A) Grade 1 (4yo+) 2m5f

Recent Trends: Year Form Horse Age Wt SP Trainer ‘02 1 Galileo 6 11-7 12-1 T George Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Kempton Novices Hurdle (18) ‘00 11111 Monsignor 6 11-7 5-4F M Pitman Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Warwick Novices Hurdle (25) ‘99 11111 Barton 6 11-7 2-1F T D Easterby Last Race (No Of Days) 1st River Don Novices Hurdle (46) ‘98 1111 French Holly 7 11-7 2-1F F Murphy Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Sidney Banks Novices Hurdle (34) ‘97 2111 Istabraq 5 11-7 6-5F A P O’Brien (Ire) Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Deloitte & Touche Nov Hurdle (38) ‘96 2212 Urubande 6 11-7 8-1 A P O’Brien (Ire) Last Race (No Of Days) 2nd Leopardstown Nov Hurdle (59) ‘95 11411 Putty Road 5 11-7 7-1 D Nicholson Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Warwick Novices Hurdle (22) ‘94 11321 Danoli 6 11-7 7-4F T Foley (Ire) Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Deloitte & Touche Nov Hurdle (41) ‘93 10222 Gaelstrom 6 11-2 16-1 N Twiston-Davies Last Race (No Of Days) 2nd Chepstow Novices Hurdle (39) Key Statistics: Five and six year olds have dominated and must have won or finished second on their latest start. Experience is an advantage and you should look for a horse with a minimum of four runs or more that season.

The Brief

At current odds of 7-2 the Edward O’Grady trained PIZARRO has plenty to prove. That might be a bold statement since he defeated the current Champion Hurdle favourite Rhinestone Cowboy in the Champion Bumper last year. However his overall form this year does not entitle him to be a 7-2 chance no matter how you look at it. On overall hurdles form he falls someway behind of that achieved by compatriot Hardy Eustace and looks to be priced up on that defeat of the ’Cowboy’ last March alone. Pizarro actually inflicted the only defeat on that super mare Solerina and on that form he is a leading candidate but no more than that at this stage. He’s only raced on ground softer than good but connections believe he will improve for better ground. COOLNAGORNA’S chances very much depend on the weather as he’s far from certain to reproduce his high class form under any sort of ground quicker than good to soft. His form stands head and shoulders above the opposition; A twenty nine length thrashing of the Nicky Henderson trained Calling Brave at Newbury in The Challow Hurdle is testament to that as Calling Brave subsequently made Foreman pull out all the stops in the Frank Pengelly Novices Hurdle at Kempton last month. If the ground comes up soft or heavy on the day then Coolnagorna will take plenty of stopping but given his frame and running style I severely doubt his ability to be as effective on decent ground. HARDY EUSTACE on the book is the leading contender all bar Coolnagorna. However at the time of writing it is most disconcerting to see the horse drift markedly with Corals out to the 8-1 mark. This is Either a mistake or the Barking firm have had their card mark a little better than anyone else. If you take a strict line with Solerina then Pizarro has the edge as Solerina defeated Hardy Eustace by two lengths at Leopardstown. That gives a four length advantage to Pizarro if you take the form line on its merit, however Hardy Eustace was beaten by Solerina over a shorter trip and there’s no doubt he’s a better horse over further. He acts on good ground or softer and is bound to be a leading player in an open looking event.

The Brief

LORD SAM will have to brush up his jumping if he is to be successful at this level. He’s got away with some sloppy jumping in lesser company but will be found wanting if it doesn’t improve. That said if it does improve then he is going to be a force because this horse has got an amazing engine. There were sev-eral times at Kempton last time where it looked as if his jumping had got the better of him yet he kept on responding and finding more as he defeated the Jonjo O’Neill trained Sh Boom and the Nicky Henderson trained Chauvanist. Victor Dartnall feels he can go on and become a champion but I feel although he could run really well he could be found wanting in this company at this stage of his career. I will be very surprised if FOREMAN manages to win this as he’s been well beaten by the likes of Puntal earlier in the season and a six length defeat of Calling Brave hardly entitles him to be as short as 10-1 in the betting. DOUBLE HONOUR was my ante post choice at 14-1 before he was beaten at Kempton by Foreman and Calling Brave and I have to say I was very disappointed by that performance. He’s plenty to prove now and the statistics are very much against him with twelve of the last thirteen winners having had at least four starts and eleven of the last thirteen winners successful on their last outing. I can live in hope!!!

Conclusion

This has the look of a very trappy event and if I was forced to have a bet now then it would be the Dessie Hughes trained HARDY EUSTACE at the 8-1 available with Coral. However with him drifting like that it puts me off quite a bit. I can’t really have Pizarro at the price and I would only back Coolnagorna if the ground came up testing while Lord Sam cannot win a championship race if his jumping hasn’t got any Better.

BEST ODDS: Pizarro 7/2 Coolnagorna 4/1 Hardy Eustace 8/1 Kicking King 8/1 Lord Sam 8/1 Sh Boom 12/1 Foreman 12/1 Chopneyev 14/1 Nil Desperandum 18/1 Supreme Developer 20/1 Supreme Prince 20/1 Saitensjohn 25/1 Chauvinist 25/1 Tardar 25/1 Double Honour 25/1 Calling Brave 33/1 Hi Cloy 33/1

2:35 Royal & SunAlliance Chase (Class A) Grade 1 (5yo+)

Recent Trends: Year Form Horse Age Wt SP Trainer ‘02 21F2 Hussard Collonges 7 11-4 33-1 P Beaumont Last Race (No Of Days) 2nd Huntingdon Nov Hcap Chase (34) ‘00 212 Lord Noelie 7 11-4 9-2 Miss H C Knight Last Race (No Of Days) 2nd Kempton Nov Chase (53) ‘99 U2011 Looks Like Trouble 7 11-4 16-1 N Chance Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Sandown Nov Chase (27) ‘98 11 Florida Pearl 6 11-4 11-8F W Mullins (Ire) Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Dr P J Moriarty Chase (38) ‘97 1U3 Hanakham 8 11-4 13-2 R J Hodges Last Race (No Of Days) 3rd Jim Ford Challenge Cup (20) ‘96 12112 Nahthen Lad 7 11-4 7-1 Mrs J Pitman Last Race (No Of Days) 2nd Reynoldstown Chase (27) ‘95 231 Brief Gale 8 10-13 13-2 J T Gifford Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Pendil Novices Chase (18) ‘94 42111 Monsieur Le Cure 8 11-4 15-2 J A C Edwards Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Pendil Novices Chase (18) ‘93 11112 Young Hustler 6 11-4 9-4 N Twiston-Davies Last Race (No Of Days) 2nd Worcester Conditions Chase (14) Key Statistics: All of the last ten winners had won or been placed on their latest start and preferably is a six to eight year old trained in this country as the Irish have a poor record in this event.

The Brief

Three interesting stats that I dug out have quite a significance on the selection here; No Reynoldstown Winner (Keen Leader) has followed up since 1973. No Feltham Winner (Jair Du Cochet) has ever followed up in this race. There have been only two Irish successes in this race since 1973. KEEN LEADER has the heavy burden of the Reynoldstown statistic to overcome in his bid to justify favouritism for this race. This horse has looked a complete machine when routing some decent novice company this season. However the one factor apart from that dreadful statistic that would play on my mind is that he’s had two visits to Cheltenham and fell both times (once over hurdles and one once, this season over fences). He could just be horse that is not suited to the ups and downs at Cheltenham after all he’s a raw boned tall type of horse that might just be suited to a more flat galloping track. I would also say that cut in the ground will be essential if he is to show his best form so all in all not the sort of reading that makes him a 9-4 chance in my book. JAIR DU COCHET took the Feltham Chase at Kempton In breathtaking style over Christmas. However it all went wrong in the Reynoldstown at Ascot last time when he fell behind Keen Leader. He was going just as well at the time but all of the last eleven winners of this race had finished in the frame on their latest start. That aside he’s looked a very smart chaser but whether his French jockey Jaques Ricou will be up to the demands of a Championship Chase at Cheltenham is another matter. IT TAKES TIME has already looked a class act over fences when he trounced The Bajan Bandit and Claymore at Haydock with the minimum of fuss. However that form isn’t as good as first thought and his ever contracting price of around 4-1 is starting to look rather short. Two factors to put you off at that price is whether the horse genuinely stays three and a quarter miles (didn’t find more than Sir Rembrandt when beaten by him at that trip on his chasing debut). Also consider his hold up running style— which means he’s always likely to find trouble or get hampered by fallers, this is not ideal in big fields.

The Brief

TARXIEN for me lacks the fluency in his jumping to be a serious contender for such a contest as this. I also feel that he hasn’t the overall quality to win at this level given that he was beaten by Joss Naylor (my leading fancy for the William Hill off 10-9). There is no way that Joss Naylor is in the class of Keen Leader, so Tarxien has it to do. For me the Irish are lacking in a class act for this event and their poor overall record in this race suggests we should be looking elsewhere for the winner. The one I really feel could run a huge race at what looks a bigger price than what he should be is the Nicky Henderson trained IRISH HUSSAR. His trainer has always held him in the highest regard although things haven’t exactly gone to plan for him this season. He made a successful debut over fences when showing a nice turn of foot to beat Ask Henry at Wincanton but then ended up sore after a loose horse cannoned into him after the line. The initial plan was to go to Kempton for The Feltham, which shows in what regard connections hold him. His next start came in a competitive handicap chase at the track where he probably would have finished second to La Landiere had he not fallen three out. His jumping was far from fluent that day but he’s put in some impressive Sessions on the schooling grounds and has had a confidence booster at Leicester since.

Conclusion

Given the unfavourable statistics surrounding the market leaders and the poor value about the Martin Pipe trained It Takes Time I will get involved to a modest level on the Nicky Henderson trained IRISH HUSSAR, who is no 33-1 chance. Hussard Collonges had a similarly quiet route last year and had fallen in his penultimate start and then was beaten in a handicap chase on his latest outing. Whatever happens there is certainly more to come from Nicky Henderson’s charge and he’s certainly worth an interest at long odds.

BEST ODDS: Keen Leader 5/2 Jair Du Cochet 9/2 Beef Or Salmon 9/2 It Takes Time 11/2 Tarxien 10/1 Le Coudray 12/1 Barrow Drive 14/1 Bannow Bay 14/1 One Knight 16/1 Joss Naylor 16/1 Telemoss 20/1 Monsignor 20/1 Be My Belle 25/1 Eskimo Jack 25/1 Bold Investor 33/1 Moss Harvey 33/1 Stars Out To-night 33/1 Iris Royal 33/1 Ask Henry 33/1 Indian Scout 33/1 Pietro Vanucci 33/1 Sudden Shock 33/1 An-other General 33/1 Over The Bar 33/1 Irish Hussar 33/1 - others 40/1 or more

3:15 Queen Mother Champion Chase (Class A) Grade 1 (5yo+) 2m

Recent Trends: Year Form Horse Age Wt SP Trainer ‘02 1 Flagship Uberalles 8 12-0 7-4F P Hobbs Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Tingle Creek Chase (95) ‘00 0133 Edredon Bleu 8 12-0 7-2 Miss H C Knight Last Race (No Of Days) 3rd Elmbridge Hcap Chase (39) ‘99 1 Call Equiname 9 12-0 7-2 P F Nicholls Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Victor Chandler Chase (53) ‘98 1101 One Man 10 12-0 7-2 G Richards Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Ascot Chase (35) ‘97 F Marthas Son 10 12-0 9-1 Capt T Forster Last Race (No Of Days) Fell Emblen Chase (18) ‘96 1FU2 Klairon Davis 7 12-0 9-1 A L T Moore (Ire) Last Race (No Of Days) 2nd Punchestown Hcap Chase (42) ‘95 110F2 Viking Flagship 8 12-0 5-2F D Nicholson Last Race (No Of Days) 2nd Emblen Chase (19) ‘94 2211 Viking Flagship 7 12-0 4-1 D Nicholson Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Game Spirit Chase (28) ‘93 12022 Deep Sensation 8 12-0 11-1 J T Gifford Last Race (No Of Days) 2nd Marston Moor Chase (39) Key Statistics: Profile here needs to be a horse coming into the race on the back of a win or a place and have had sufficient time to get over their exertions. Horses older than the age of ten have struggled in the past to make an impact.

The Brief

A fascinating renewal and although hardly a youngster at the age of nine the Jessica Harrington stable star— MOSCOW FLYER is going to be very hard to beat. The performance he put up in the Arkle last year always suggested that the cream of the crop of the two mile chasing division would be vulnerable to his turn of foot in the big one. The twenty length defeat of the improved Kadarann earlier in the season is now starting to make impressive reading as Paul Nicholls charge has subsequently improved beyond recognition by taking a handicap (albeit fortuitously) and then landing the Game Spirit Chase beating Lady Cricket and Cenkos. Moscow Flyer has had two simple tasks since then and will enter this race as fresh as a daisy. He goes on good ground or softer and he should stamp himself as the best two miler in Training— he is reportedly in fantastic shape. TIUTCHEV has been brought back steadily by new trainer Martin Pipe and looked on good terms with himself when winning The Ritz Club in impressive fashion. It is remarkable to think that this horse nearly died from colic just over a year ago and it would be a fairytale for connections if Tiutchev followed up his 1999 Arkle win. The horse has the ingredients to win a Champion— a dcent cruising speed coupled with a turn of foot though I feel that his current odds of around 6-1 are only fair and I wish I had stepped him just a week ago where 12-1 was still available in a place. Represents just fair value at this stage! CENKOS is another Paul Nicholls runners that I will be siding against. He simply didn’t get home in last years Champion Chase and there should be no reason why this year will be any different. He has never been the best of jumpers and would have to be foot perfect to even make the frame in my opinion. Has to have soft ground to show his very best and rates poor value at current odds. EDREDEON BLEU is a credit to his trainer and to national hunt racing. He has the heart of a lion and is a class act. However at his age you have to question whether he has enough speed to lie up with the best of the two milers. I have always felt his optimum trip is two and a half miles and his optimum conditions is quick ground, not for me I’m afraid.

The Brief

FLAGSHIP UBERALLES did many pundits a favour when successful in this race last year. For the best part of the race he was off the bridle and didn’t look the winner till jumping the last. His jumping can be often ragged and he’s had his fair share of physical problems. He jumped poorly in the Tingle Creek and didn’t stay in the King George. If the ground came up soft then that would increase his cahnces but I can’t see ‘The Flaghsip’ producing an encore. Incidentally he’s been purchased by legendary owner J P McManus and it remains to be seen if that is a good piece of business or not. KADARANN has made significant progress this year to earn quotes of around 6-1 for the race. I feel that is down to the liabilities of the bookmakers who laid the horse at 40-1 to a telephone tipster before his win in the Game Spirit last time. He was apparently trained to the minute for that race and for me that was Kadarann’s Champion Chase. It puts it into perspective when this horse was trounced twenty lengths by Moscow Flyer earlier in the season and would have been beaten by Golden Alpha in a handicap chase had that horse not fallen. An unlikely winner!

Conclusion

The 3-1 chalked up by Corals about MOSCOW FLYER seems reasonable value. If every horse ran to the best of their ability then Moscow Flyer would win so 3-1 although not exactly the value bet of the year is certainly worth a modest investment. I think Jessica Harrington’s stable star wins this by default because there are too many question marks surrounding the opposition and he is the logical choice.

BEST ODDS: Moscow Flyer 11/4 Cenkos 6/1 Tiutchev 8/1 Kadarann 8/1 Flagship Uberalles 9/1 Edre-don Bleu 11/1 Florida Pearl 12/1 Native Upmanship 14/1 Seebald 16/1 Lady Cricket 20/1 Young Devereaux 28/1 Geos 33/1 Latalomne 33/1 Dark 'N Sharp 40/1 Wahiba Sands 66/1 Killultagh Storm 66/1 Strong Run 66/1 Turgeonev 66/1 Redemption 100/1 Macs Gildoran 100/1

4:00 Coral Cup (Hurdle) Showcase Handicap (Class A) Grade 3 (5yo+) 2m5f

Recent Trends: Year Form Horse Age Wt SP Trainer ‘02 04U Ilnamar 6 10-5 25-1 M C Pipe Last Race (No Of Days) U/R Doncaster Hcap Chase (46) ‘00 11P3 Whats Up Boys 6 10-3 33-1 P Hobbs Last Race (No Of Days) 3rd Uttoxeter Novice Hurdle (39) ‘99 0 Khayrawani 7 11-3 16-1 C Roche (Ire) Last Race (No Of Days) Upl Ascot Hurdle (117) ‘98 000 Top Cees 8 10-0 11-1 Mrs J R Ramsden Last Race (No Of Days) Upl Ayr Handicap Hurdle (46) ‘97 121 Big Strand 9 10-0 16-1 M C Pipe Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Haydock Handicap Hurdle (19) ‘96 11 Trainglot 9 10-3 11-2 J G Fitzgerald Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Tote Scoop6Hurdle (38) ‘95 03 Chance Coffey 10 10-0 11-1 P O’Donnell (Ire) Last Race (No Of Days) 3rd Boyne Hurdle (24) ‘94 3001 Time For A Run 7 11-8 11-1 E J O’Grady (Ire) Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Leopardstown Hcap Hurdle (10) ‘93 11 Olympian 6 10-0 4-1JF M C Pipe Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Imperial Cup (4) Key Statistics: Good recent form isn’t vital here as some winners have been laid out for the race and have had ‘prep’ runs down the field. The one consistent trend is a horse at the bottom of the handicap, who has been lightly raced— no more than four previous starts that season.

The Brief

A couple of statistics that stand out here are that NO horse has ever won from a higher mark of 144 (pretty pointless as top weight this year is rated 141) and NO horse has had more than four starts that current season. It is a notoriously difficult event with many unexposed horses that have been laid out for the race and form doesn’t necessarily mean a great deal. More recently three of the last four winners have all been unplaced on their latest start. A speculative but interesting choice for me at this stage would be the Paddy Mulllins trained BOB WHAT. This horse could be improving at the ripe old age of nine. At first this seems difficult to believe but there’s every reason to think that this horse is better than ever and even potentially thrown in off his current mark of 130. He hasn’t run for 157 days but that’s no bar to success as Khayrawani proved in ‘99. This horse finished second to Champion Hurdle second favourite Intersky Falcon at Tipperary in October beaten by just a length and a half with In Contrast over ten lengths back in third. Form if taken at face value leaves him absolutely thrown in off his current mark. There are arguments for saying he’s flattered but connections obviously don’t feel that way because he’s still entered in the Champion Hurdle. However I prefer to give him the benefit of the doubt at the prices as the time before that he showed improved form to win a Listed Handicap Hurdle at Tralee. I wouldn’t advised getting involved at this stage unless there is a non runner no bet rule (in other words you get your money back if he doesn’t run). If you can get a bet under those terms then 25-1 is well worth taking.

Conclusion

At this stage a small each way bet on BOB WHAT at around the 25-1 mark wouldn’t go amiss providing you can bet with the non runner money back rule.

BEST ODDS: Korelo 7/2 xenophon 9/1 Yeoman's Point 12/1 Ravenswood 12/1 Emotional Moment 12/1 Spectrometer 14/1 Chopneyev 16/1 Quazar 16/1 Camden Tanner 16/1 Chauvinist 20/1 Safari Paradise 20/1 Double Honour 20/1 Tardar 25/1 See You Sometime 25/1 Bob What 25/1 Farinel 25/1 Samon 33/1 Arabian Moon 33/1 Creon 33/1 Miss Cool 33/1 Tucacas 33/1 Valerio 33/1 Campaign Trail 33/1 Chicuelo

4:35 133rd Year of The National Hunt Chase Challenge Cup (Amateur Riders' Novices' Chase) (Class B) (5yo+) 4m

Recent Trends: Year Form Horse Age Wt SP Trainer ‘02 23221 Rith Dubh 10 11-11 10-1 J J O’Neill Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Huntingdon Nov Hcap Ch (19) ‘00 F24U2 Relaxation 8 12-0 8-1 H Daly Last Race (No Of Days) 2nd Warwick Nov Chase (25) ‘99 14 Deejaydee 7 12-0 13-2 M Hourigan (Ire) Last Race (No Of Days) 4th Deloitte & Touche Nov Hurdle (38) ‘98 11 Wandering Light 9 12-7 10-1 Capt T Forster Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Ludlow Nov Hcap Chase (115) ‘97 21314 Flimsy Truth 11 12-7 33-1 M Weston Last Race (No Of Days) 4th Uttoxeter Hcap Chase (32) ‘96 33F10 Loving Around 8 11-13 10-1 E J O’Grady (Ire) Last Race (No Of Days) Upl Fairyhouse Nov Hcap Chase (16) ‘95 13431 Front Line 8 12-7 7-1 J J O’Neill Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Nottingham Novice Chase (15) ‘94 34B12 Christmas Gorse 8 12-4 14-1 N A Gaselee Last Race (No Of Days) 2nd Notingham Hcap Chase (43) ‘93 30U02 Ushers Island 7 12-4 15-2 J H Johnson Last Race (No Of Days) 2nd Eider Hcap Chase (25) Key Statistics: Looking for a horse aged between seven and ten that was at least placed on it’s last start and has shown consistent form throughout the season. Favourites have a poor record but horses at 10/1 and under have produced good returns.

The Brief

Four statistics against the short priced favourite STORMEZ, the first is his age (6) as nine of the last twelve winners were either seven or eight year olds. The second is the poor record of favourites although we shouldn’t be looking for a massive price because only one previous winner has started bigger than 14-1. The third is Martin Pipe’s record in the race 0/11 and the fourth is that he is Martin Pipe’s best bet of the meeting— surely a curse in itself :+). Stormez is head and shoulders above this field on the book but I can’t entertain him at around 5-2 given the poor statistical analysis and also the fact that there are one or two promising types open to a significant amount of improvement. Nicky Richards’ LORD JACK fits this profile after an excellent run when finishing third to Iris Bleu in the Agfa Diamond Chase at Sandown— staying on really well up the hill suggesting there will be plenty of Improvement to come when tried over this marathon trip. Prior to that he thrashed The Rile giving him weight up at Ayr and if conditions look like they are going to be testing then Trevor Hemmings’ son of Mister Lord will be galloping right to the line. His form is about ten pounds below that of Stormez but with the improvement to come from the step up in trip he could well be the value. Jonjo O’Neill is bidding to follow up last years win with DRUIDS GLEN, who has a similar profile to last years winner Rith Dubh. He looks to have his fair share of temperament but that didn’t stop Rith Dubh last year and this horse just does enough in his races. If the useful amateur JT McNamara takes the ride then he would be one for the shortlist.

Conclusion

No prices available at the time of writing but I like the look of LORD JACK and he would be my selection at this stage.

5:10 53rd Year of The Mildmay of Flete Challenge Cup (Handicap Chase) (Class A) (Listed Race) (5yo+) 2m4½f (2m4f110y)

Recent Trends: Year Form Horse Age Wt SP Trainer ‘02 P5 Blowing Wind 9 10-9 25-1 M C Pipe Last Race (No Of Days) Unpl Elmbridge Hcap Chase (39) ‘00 24P1 Dark Stranger 9 10-3 14-1 M C Pipe Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Leicester Hcap Chase (19) ‘99 111 Majadou 5 11-0 7-4F M C Pipe Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Lingfield Novices Chase (40) ‘98 3111 Super Coin 10 10-0 7-1 R Lee Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Chepstow Inter Chase (25) ‘97 0PF02 Terao 11 10-7 20-1 M C Pipe Last Race (No Of Days) 2nd Haydock Hcap Chase (18) ‘96 2F1 Old Bridge 8 9-7 14-1 A Turnell Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Warwick Hcap Chase (24) ‘95 32112 Kadi 6 10-4 11-2 D Nicholson Last Race (No Of Days) 2nd Pendil Novices Chase (18) ‘94 224 Elfast 11 11-4 8-1 J Webber Last Race (No Of Days) 4th Racing Post Chase (18) ‘93 11022 Sacre D’or 8 11-0 7-1 N Tinkler Last Race (No Of Days) 2nd Sandown Hcap Chase (27) Key Statistics: Anything trained by Martin Pipe has to merit serious consideration. Anything that hasn’t run within the last six weeks can be ruled out as good recent form — win or placed last time is important. We should also look for a horse that is at the middle to bottom end of the handicap.

The Brief

The Irish have a poor record in this event yet the favourite ROSS MOFF is considered by many to have an outstanding chance here. I personally cannot entertain a horse round here that has fell on his previous two starts around tracks that take less jumping than round here. Of the Martin Pipe contingent I think the most interesting should he take his chance is MR COOL, who looks favourably treated over fences. He has improved this season over hurdles and last season he had showed a level of form over fences that suggests he would be competitive from his current chase rating. I’m not sure whether his running style will be suited to a race such as this but his trainer is adept at switching codes and getting them ready for the big event— Ilnamar at 50-1 in the Coral Cup is testament to this. A particularly strong fancy for me here in the shape of the Sue Smith trained GOGUENARD at a very tempting 25-1. This gelding has really thrived since the transformation from Nicky Henderson to Sue Smith, which is a surprise in itself. However Sue Smith is very underrated as a trainer and she is certainly getting the best out of this French bred, who promised plenty for Henderson but often failed to deliver. He was impressive at Haydock in the way he battled on to the line to beat Red Striker and the form has a solid look to it with consistent front runner Il ’Athou in third. Prior to that he was an excellent third behind Hussard Collonges and Truckers Tavern in The Peter Marsh, which was all the more meritous because he simply failed to last home over the three miles in testing ground. He fits the criteria of the race perfectly and rates as my second best bet behind Joss Naylor at the entire festival. Goguenard can go well here before having a crack at the Martell Grand National.

Conclusion Had GOGUENARD been trained by a fashionable Irish trainer, Pipe or still with Henderson then he would

BEST ODDS: Ross Moff 8/1 Shamawan 10/1 Go Roger Go 10/1 Davids Lad 11/1 Lady Cricket 12/1 Hermes III 12/1 Claymore 12/1 Europa 12/1 Horus 14/1 Ballinclay King 14/1 Master Tern 14/1 Fondmort 14/1 Poliantas 14/1 Arctic Copper 16/1 Armaturk 16/1 Royal Auclair 16/1 Scots Grey 16/1 Cyfor Malta 16/1 Young Spartacus 16/1 Fadalko 20/1 - others 25/1 or more

5:45 Weatherbys Champion Bumper Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Class A) Grade 1 (4-6yo) 2m½f (2m110y)

Recent Trends: Year Form Horse Age Wt SP Trainer ‘02 1-1 Pizarro 5 11-6 14-1 E O’Grady (Ire) Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Naas Bumper (17) ‘00 1 Joe Cullen 5 11-6 14-1 W Mullins (Ire) Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Tralee Bumper (282) ‘99 134 Monsignor 5 11-6 50-1 M Pitman Last Race (No Of Days) 4th Newbury Bumper (32) ‘98 1 Alexander Banquet 5 11-6 9-1 W Mullins (Ire) Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Gowran Park Bumper (25) ‘97 1 Florida Pearl 5 11-6 6-1 W Mullins (Ire) Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Leopardstown Bumper (76) ‘96 1 Wither Or Which 5 11-6 11-4 W Mullins (Ire) Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Leopardstown Bumper (72) ‘95 11 Dato Star 4 10-12 7-2 J M Jefferson Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Haydock Bumper (18) ‘94 30-1 Mucklemeg 6 11-5 7-2F E J O’Grady (Ire) Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Naas Bumper (111) ‘93 21 Rhythm Section 4 10-11 16-1 H Scott (Ire) Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Leopardstown Bumper (46) Key Statistics: Martin Pipe has never been renowned as a trainer of bumper horses and it would pay to concentrate on a lightly raced Irish challenger, no more than two starts that had won last time out— preferably a five year old and trained by W Mullins or E J O’Grady.

The Brief

The one solid opinion I have here is that Martin Pipe is not a trainer of bumper horses. There are those that say that he’s never had any top class ones to work with but I don’t think his training methods are suited to these immature but potentially top class youngsters. Take Vodka Bleu for example, getting rave reviews in Ireland and it was rumoured that David Johnson paid six figures to acquire the son of Pistolet Bleu from Eddie Hales. Yet his performance on his first run for Pipe was a battling win by a head in a modest Haydock bumper. His record in the Champion Bumper adds credence to the argument 0/11 and I wouldn’t touch the strongly fancied LIBERMAN with a bargepole. Take Rhinestone Cowboy out of that bumper and the form is useful but nothing out of the ordinary and he certainly doesn’t warrant being as short as 3-1. The fact that Ruby Walsh has chosen ROYAL ALPHABET over the very impressive Newbury winner CORNISH GALE is a tip in itself. I was really taken by Cornish Gale yet Walsh has chosen the Willie Mullins runner and who can argue with that given Mullins’ outstanding record in the race (4 wins). He’s only had the one start and the form isn’t anything out of the ordinary but he did do it in impressive fashion, showing a smart turn of foot to win decisively. In what is an impossible event in which to gain a form angle this is the best I can offer at this stage.

Conclusion

A race that I don’t get overly involved in as obviously the form book has little meaning in a race like this. The token choice then is the Willie Mullins trained ROYAL ALPHABET at the 7-1 with Coral.

BEST ODDS: Liberman 3/1 Cornish Rebel 11/2 Back To Ben Alder 7/1 Royal Alphabet 7/1 Mark The Man 12/1 Govamix 14/1 Bourbon Manhattan 14/1 The Boys In Green 16/1 Sixo 16/1 Davenport Democrat 20/1 Control Man 25/1 King Player 25/1 Carrick 25/1 Dooley 25/1 Widemouth Bay 33/1 Dempsey 33/1 Miller's Bay 33/1 The Kop End 33/1 Patriarch Express 40/1 The Joker 40/1

Where’s My Money Going At The Festival — Wednesday (Day Two)

A mythical £100 is given to me to bet on each day at the festival. The idea is to show a profit over the three days and hopefully it will give you a guide to my confidence levels on each race. 2.00 - HARDY EUSTACE £10 WIN 2.35 - IRISH HUSSAR £10 WIN 3.15 - MOSCOW FLYER £30 WIN 4.00 - BOB WHAT £5 EACH WAY 4.35 - LORD JACK £10 WIN 5.10 - GOGUENARD £10 EACH WAY 5.45 - ROYAL ALPHABET £10 WIN Total Stake: £100

2:00 JCB Triumph Hurdle (Class A) Grade 1 (4yo) 2m1f

Recent Trends: Year Form Horse Age Wt SP Trainer ‘02 01212 Scolardy 4 11-0 16-1 W Mullins (Ire) Last Race (No Of Days) 2nd Cashmans Novices Hurdle (32) ‘00 21141 Snow Drop 4 10-9 7-1F F Doumen (Fr) Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Adonis Novices Hurdle (19) ‘99 111 Katarino 4 11-0 11-4F N J Henderson Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Adonis Novices Hurdle (19) ‘98 P1011 Upgrade 4 11-0 14-1 N Twiston-Davies Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Sandown Novices Hurdle (27) ‘97 11 Commanche Court 4 11-0 9-1 T M Walsh (Ire) Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Punchestown Novices Hurdle (25) ‘96 1122 Paddys Return 4 11-0 10-1 F Murphy Last Race (No Of Days) 2nd Sandown Novices Hurdle (39) ‘95 311 Kissair 4 11-0 16-1 M C Pipe Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Windsor Novices Hurdle (26) ‘94 11111 Mysilv 4 10-9 2-1F D Nicholson Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Adonis Novices Hurdle (19) ‘93 2111 Shawiya 4 10-9 12-1 M O’Brien (Ire) Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Punchestown Novices Hurdle (25) Key Statistics: Seven of the last nine winners contested novice hurdles at Sandown, Kempton or Punchestown on their last start. The selection must have finished either first or second on it’s latest start and within the last six weeks.

The Brief

The statistic regarding the track where a horse last ran before contesting this race really catches the eye here. It makes sense that Kempton is among the featured tracks as I’ve always maintained that it teaches a juvenile hurdler far more than racing anywhere else. Generally at Kempton you are racing at pace and always on the turn so it teaches a horse to jump at speed. This stands them in good stead with regards to the Triumph Hurdle where it is often run at a frenetic pace and horses that have run at Kempton have usually experienced such race conditions. As we know it doesn’t always work like that and it was disappointing to see the Adonis Hurdle run at such a crawl this year as it’s often proved a very informative trial with three of the last nine winners of the Triumph actually successful in that race. WELL CHIEF was the winner of the Adonis but Martin Pipe’s charge was given a peach of a ride by McCoy, who simply outrode his colleagues in keeping Well Chief close to the slow pace. He then quickened at a crucial moment and I’m pretty sure that he is flattered to have won the race like he did. David Johnson the horses’ owner was as surprised as anybody because he said that the horse doesn’t do a tap at home and DON FERNANDO was their number one choice for the Triumph before the Kempton race. Well Chief also has an engagement in the Supreme Novices Hurdle on the first day so it is not certain that he will even take part here. There has been a lot of ante post interest in the Nicky Henderson trained SAINTSAIRE, who was beaten by Well Chief at Kempton but didn’t get any sort of run and to be perfectly honest it wasn’t Mick Fitzgerald’s finest hour as he was caught out by the race tactics. However I really feel that Saintsaire is a horse of some potential and those that have backed the horse ante post shouldn’t rip up their tickets just yet. This horse showed a devastating turn of foot when winning on his debut at Newbury and hasn’t had the races run to suit in both runs since. French breds have gone well in this race in the past and with the race likely to be run at a furious pace this should play right into the hands of Santsaire. I certainly wouldn’t put anyone off having a small bet at 12-1. DON FERNANDO is the ante post favourite and has shown what a tough sort he is and importantly the form is in the book. However you just feel that there will be one or two just too good for him and I fancy

The Brief

Santsaire to turn the tables on their Cheltenham running. There has been good money for the Irish raider GOLDEN CROSS, who at the time of writing is trading at around the 7-1 mark. He has looked the part in his races to date and showed a smart turn of foot when landing the Grade Three Winning Fair Juvenile Hurdle at Fairyhouse. The time before he found MUTINEER just too good at Leopardstown but could be progressing past that rival. It is difficult to evaluate how good exactly the Irish runners are this year and iif it comes up soft on Thursday then both Mutineer and Golden Cross both have claims— though neither may appreciate quicker ground. At current odds of 10-1 RED WINE makes no appeal whatsoever. True he was improving on the flat and won the November Handicap but so did Batswing and that didn’t make him into a star hurdler. I feel the form of his win at Newbury was nothing out of the ordinary and he could be found wanting from an experience point of view. He is priced up purely on his flat form! The one I really like at a price is the French raider LILIUM DE COTTE, who I believe is 25-1 with William Hill yet only 12-1 with Ladbrokes. In my view Ladbrokes are nearer the mark and Hills are wrong as this has always been the target for this classy French bred. He made an eyecatching debut in Britain at The Tripleprint meeting when beaten narrowly by Don Fernando. He then failed to give his running at Chepstow and bounced back with a good performance at Sandown, form which looks more solid than that of Red Wine. He looked as though he was going to win very easily that day and had to be driven right out suggesting that his trainer left him a bit short. He’s three quarters of a length to find with the 5-1 favourite on the book and his trainer is confident of breaking his festival duck with Lilium De Cotte.

Conclusion

Not a race to get heavily involved in as it looks a very difficult race to solve but I think the case has been made for supporting LILIUM DE COTTE at five times the price of the favourite when only three quarters of a length separate them on the book. An each way play is the call and the advice is to shop around for some good each way terms as some bookmakers pay on the first five in the Triumph.

BEST ODDS: Don Fernando 7/1 Golden Cross 8/1 Well Chief 8/1 Red Wine 10/1 Saintsaire 12/1 Money Train 16/1 Old California 16/1 Mutineer 16/1 Nas Na Riogh 20/1 Mughas 20/1 Spectroscope 25/1 East Ty-coon 25/1 Lilium de Cotte 25/1 Starzaan 33/1 Andy Gin 33/1 Fortune Island 33/1 Kenilworth 33/1 The Last Cast 33/1 Lewis Island 40/1 Dashing Home 40/1 Fantastic Champion 40/1 Le Duc 40/1 Mistanoora 40/1 -

2:35 Bonusprint Stayers' Hurdle (Class A) Grade 1 (4yo+)

Recent Trends: Year Form Horse Age Wt SP Trainer ‘02 111 Baracouda 7 11-10 13-8F F Doumen (Fr) Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Rendlesham Hurdle (20) ‘00 12 Bacchanal 6 11-10 11-2 N J Henderson Last Race (No Of Days) 2nd Cleeve Hurdle (47) ‘99 002 Anzum 8 11-10 40-1 D Nicholson Last Race (No Of Days) 2nd Rendlesham Hurdle (19) ‘98 24124 Princeful 7 11-10 16-1 M Pitman Last Race (No Of Days) 4th Tote Scoop6 Hcap Hurdle (40) ‘97 213 Karshi 7 11-10 20-1 Miss H C Knight Last Race (No Of Days) 3rd Newbury Hcap Hurdle (34) ‘96 - Cyborgo 6 11-10 9-1 M C Pipe Last Race (No Of Days) 2nd Stayers Hurdle (363) ‘95 12211 Dorans Pride 6 11-10 11-4F M Hourigan (Ire) Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Boyne Hurdle (25) ‘94 41 Balasani 8 11-10 9-2JF M C Pipe Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Rendlesham Hurdle (19) ‘93 023R2 Shuil Ar Aghaidh 7 11-5 20-1 P Kiely (Ire) Last Race (No Of Days) 2nd Boyne Hurdle (16) Key Statistics: Six, seven and eight year olds hold the call, coming into the race in good form. Selection must have won or placed on it’s latest start.

The Brief

It’s hard to believe that BARACOUDA is only eight years old because he seems to have been around for years. Thierry Doumen— his pilot has come in for all sorts of stick over the years from, some of which was warranted, some not. Whatever you say about him, he gave this horse an absolute peach of a ride last year in a race that played to his strengths. If they go a decent gallop again this year, which is usually the case then I can’t really see past this horse despite the presence of the great LIMESTONE LAD. Doumen was nearly in danger of being lynched at Ascot just before Christmas when Tony McCoy pinched what looked an unassailable lead on Mr Cool in The Long Walk Hurdle. Baracouda’s class just got him there right on the line and it spared Thierry a major embarrassment. A similar scenario followed when Deanos Beano was given an easy lead in The Rendlesham at Kempton and McCoy’s skill in the saddle proved too much for the tactically naive Frenchman. Those sort of tests didn’t suit the great horse nor his jockey for that matter. However this race will be different, although Doumen has to negotiate the undulations of Cheltenham, the one thing he won’t have to worry about is pace. Baracouda will never win his races by big margins but I can’t see what will turn him over this year providing he gets his fair share of luck in running. His price doesn’t seem good value at the moment and because the Irish will steam into Limestone Lad on the day a much bigger price should be obtainable on the day about this horse. LIMESTONE LAD has already achieved ‘Greatness’ however for me there are sufficient doubts whether he’s going back to Ireland with the silverware and mantle of Champion stayer. The only way I would give this horse a major chance is if the ground came up very testing as he really is very, very good under such conditions. That coupled with his aversion to travelling and the fact that he’s now eleven years old there are two factors which would stop me from supporting a horse at such a price in a Championship race. The purist and the neutral will be baying for a Limestone Lad win but unless the official going is Soft or worse then for my money Baracouda will beat him. CLASSIFIED is now at the right age and is progressing nicely but he falls way short of the form that Baracouda has shown and his current odds of around 5-1 are an insult. He’s got plenty more to find with either Limestone Lad or Baracouda and if either of those two run up to their best then he won’t be winning.

The Brief

GALILEO is trying to emulate Cyborgo by winning this race on his reappearance. This is going to be a very tough ask for this classy Polish import. I backed Galileo at 12-1 to win The Royal & Sun Alliance last year and I have a soft spot for this horse. He has a wonderful turn of foot but taking on the likes of Accomplished and battle hardened horses like Baracouda and Limestone Lad he makes no appeal at a shorter price than he was for his race at the festival last year.

Conclusion

It has got to be BARACOUDA though as I said in The Brief, the best policy is to back him at starting price because the money for Limestone Lad should force his price artificially high. No value at 6-4 but I envisage at least 2-1 on the day which is nearer the mark.

BEST ODDS: Barcouda 2/1 Limestone Lad 3/1 Bannow Bay 7/1 Classified 7/1 Gallileo 10/1 Iris's Gift 12/1 Coolnagorna 12/1 Ilnamar 14/1 Brother Joe 20/1 Liss a Paoraigh 25/1 Deanos Beeno 25/1 Native Emperor 25/1 Stromness 33/1 Chopneyev 40/1 Eternal Spring 40/1 Vishnu 50/1 Milligan 50/1 Over The Bar 50/1 Crazy Horse 66/1 Sudden Shock 66/1 The Bajan Bandit 66/1 Teaatral 66/1 - others 100/1 or more

3:15 Tote Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase Showcase Race (Class A) Grade 1 (5yo+) 3m2½f (3m2f110y)

Recent Trends: Year Form Horse Age Wt SP Trainer ‘02 122 Best Mate 7 12-0 7-1 Miss H C Knight Last Race (No Of Days) 2nd King George VI Chase (78) ‘00 31P1 Looks Like Trouble 8 12-0 9-2 Noel Chance Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Pillar Property Chase (47) ‘99 41P3 See More Business 9 12-0 16-1 P F Nicholls Last Race (No Of Days) 3rd Pillar Property Chase (47) ‘98 0111P Cool Dawn 10 12-0 25-1 R H Alner Last Race (No Of Days) Pulled Up Agfa Chase (40) ‘97 4F Mr Mulligan 9 12-0 20-1 Noel Chance Last Race (No Of Days) Fell King George VI Chase (77) ‘96 1F11 Imperial Call 7 12-0 9-2 F Sutherland (Ire) Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Irish Henessy Gold Cup (31) ‘95 111 Master Oats 9 12-0 10-3F K C Bailey Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Pillar Property Chase (47) ‘94 3333 The Fellow 9 12-0 7-1 F Doumen (Fr) Last Race (No Of Days) 3rd Racing Post Chase (19) ‘93 22111 Jodami 8 12-0 8-1 P Beaumont Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Irish Henessy Gold Cup (32) Key Statistics: Look for horse that finished in the frame in the following races on it’s latest start— King George VI, Pillar Property Chase, Irish Henessy Gold Cup.

The Brief

The trouble is when trying to preview a race of this stature and at this stage is that all the value has gone. All in all this isn’t a vintage Gold Cup though I feel there is one piece of excellent value left, which should be taken prior to the day. BEST MATE attempts to be the first horse to win back to back Gold Cups since L’Escargot in 1971 and looking at the opposition he has every chance of doing so. This horse is without doubt a very classy performer but he isn’t the superstar that some make him out to be. He was all out to win the King George from MARLBOROUGH, who without doubt put in the performance of his life, form which doesn’t make you reach for the cards and want to start punting him at a best price of 7-4. There are 7-4 shots every week that are better value than what Best Mate is to win The Gold Cup. Some would argue saying that his level of consistency puts him in with a great chance of retaining his crown, however there have been several short priced defeats in this race, Desert Orchid, Carvills Hill, The Fellow and See More Business all names that spring to mind and although I can see him winning I cannot back him at the price. For me 2-1 is his price, 5-2 would be value and if pressed I would be a layer at 6-4. The only concern to Best Mate would be if the ground came up very soft because I’m not so sure he would see out the three and a quarter miles on testing ground. BEEF OR SALMON has become Best Mate’s chief rival after two dazzling displays in Ireland. There’s no doubting that this first season chaser has all the attributes to become a future champion. He has a change of gear and has shown a high level of form in what is his first season over fences. It’s amazing to think that on only his fourth start over fences he’s winning an Irish Hennessy with his head firmly in his chest. That sort of puts to bed the ‘first season novice’ factor— although I do accept that the contours of Cheltenham provide a different sort of test than Leopardstown and it does unhinge horse that have any flaws in their jumping ability. However I’ve not really seen any evidence to suggest that Beef Or Salmon would struggle at Cheltenham as he travels really well in his races. He’s unexposed as a chaser and at this sort of stamina sapping trip which will suit. There are judges who feel the quick pace could count against him but I feel it could play into his hands and he has the ideal jockey in Timmy Murphy to carry out the waiting tactics that will be employed. At current prices I would rather back Beef Or Salmon at 4-1 than

The Brief

Best Mate at 7-4, though to be honest neither look any sort of value and my money will be going elsewhere. HUSSARD COLLONGES does not look good enough to land a Gold Cup. Beaten off a mark of 154 in the Hennessy and unlike the Gold Cup winner Jodami, also trained by his handler— failed to give the weight away in the Peter Marsh. There’s no doubt that Hussard Collonges is a very decent horse but he is no Gold Cup winner. He jumps accurately and his bold front running style should see him figure throughout the race but if Beef Or Salmon or Best Mate run to their best then the best Peter Beaumont’s charge can hope for is third place. Normally Pillar Chase winners command plenty of respect in a Gold Cup but BEHRAJAN is not for me I’m afraid. There’s no doubt that this horse is quirky and there’s been several occasions when he’s shirked the issue when the chips were down in the closing stages. No matter how well Behrajan is travelling in the race it will be the hill that finishes him off at this level. He basically won the Pillar by default as he beat a non stayer, a horse that didn’t go in the ground and a horse that didn’t give his running. Makes no appeal even at current odds of 16-1. COMMANCHE COURT has attracted support in recent days and Ted Walsh’s charge has no doubt been laid out for this as he comes into the race fresh and in good order. There is no doubt he would have made more of a race of it with Best Mate last year had he not fluffed the second last. He has a better profile statistically than Best Mate as three of the last twelve winners had run in the previous years Gold Cup but hadn’t won. Incidentally he had five starts last year before attempting to win the Gold Cup whereas this time round he has had just the two. A prep race over two miles followed by a facile win in The Newlands Chase at Navan. He’s a sound jumper, who stays well and has the experience of the rough and tumble race that this often becomes. He makes quite a bit of each way appeal at the 12-1 offered by Victor Chan-dler and if the going comes up on the soft side of good then this horse has every chance of going one bet-ter in what looks a weak year.

Conclusion

The 12-1 about COMMANCHE COURT will not be available on the day and I really feel that Ted Walsh’s ten year old can reverse the form with Best Mate and take the Blue Ribband back to Ireland,

BEST ODDS: Best Mate 7/4 Beef Or Salmon 4/1 Hussard Collonges 10/1 Commanche Court 12/1 Behrajan 16/1 Keen Leader 16/1 See More Business 20/1 Valley Henry 20/1 Chives 25/1 Colonel Braxton 25/1 Marlborough 25/1 Truckers Tavern 33/1 Rince Ri 33/1 Harbour Pilot 33/1 It Takes Time 33/1 First Gold 40/1 Cyfor Malta 50/1 Barton 50/1 Lord Noelie 50/1 Whitenzo 50/1 Florida Pearl 50/1 Le Coudray 50/1 - others 66/1 or more

4:00 Christie's Foxhunter Chase Challenge Cup (Class B) (5yo+) 3m2½f (3m2f110y)

Recent Trends: Year Form Horse Age Wt SP Trainer ‘02 43 Last Option 10 12-0 20-1 R Tate Last Race (No Of Days) 3rd Newbury Hunter Chase (13) ‘00 221 Cavalero 11 12-0 16-1 H J Manners Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Warwick Hunter Chase (12) ‘99 111 Castle Mane 7 12-0 9-2 Miss C Bailey Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Warwick Hunter Chase (12) ‘98 F11 Earthmover 7 12-0 3-1 R Barber Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Newbury Hunter Chase (13) ‘97 2F Fantus 10 12-0 10-1 R Barber Last Race (No Of Days) Fell Didmarton Pt To Pt (13) ‘96 1 Elegant Lord 8 12-0 3-1F E Bolger (Ire) Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Leopardstown Hunter Chase (31) ‘95 11 Fantus 8 12-0 8-1 R Barber Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Larkhill Open Pt to Pt (26) ‘94 11 Double Silk 10 12-0 2-5F R Wilkins Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Warwick Hunter Chase (14) ‘93 31 Double Silk 9 12-0 12-1 R Wilkins Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Warwick Hunter Chase (14) Key Statistics: Look for a horse that was succesful on it’s latest start within the last fourteen days. Avoid horses that are trained professionally and horses aged twelve or more. Selection must also not have had more than three starts during the current campaign.

The Brief

The current crop of hunters do not look anything special with just the one exception. It seems a long time ago that we had a ‘Double Silk’ graduating through the hunter chase scene, however that is until I saw KINGSCLIFF bolt up at Wincanton recently and I have to say that this horse looks a future star. He travelled with consummate ease and effortlessly pulled thirty lengths clear of Family Business, who has since finished seventeen lengths third behind the useful Storm Damage. He’s a big rangy type of gelding that shouldn’t have any problem whatsoever with the Cheltenham fences and he has since won a point to point in emphatic fashion. There is no doubt in my mind that this horse could go on to great things under rules and who knows? - it could even be the Gold Cup next year. Professionally trained runners have a poor record in this event and although EARTHMOVER is the form choice he looks up against it from the age factor and ‘Granddad’s’ don’t fare very well in this type of event. If something goes wrong with the favourite then the one who looks overpriced is the ten year old gelding COUNTY DERRY, who was chasing Earthmover when coming down at the last at Chepstow recently. He would have been beaten but not by much and he seems to be better this time around than when he was fifth in this race last year. He does however need soft ground to show his form but he would run a big race given such conditions and if around 14-1 on the day would be worth a saver under such conditions.

Conclusion

Impossible to get away from KINGSCLIFF, who looks by far and away the best prospect to come out of the Hunter Chase scene for a while. He rates the day’s best betting proposition.

4:35 131st Year of The Cheltenham Grand Annual Challenge Cup (Handicap Chase) (Class A) (Listed Race) (5yo+) 2m½f (2m110y)

Recent Trends: Year Form Horse Age Wt SP Trainer ‘02 321 Fadoudal Du Cochet 9 10-0 6-1 A L T Moore (Ire) Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Red Mills Trial Hurdle (26) ‘00 111 Samakaan 7 10-11 9-2F Miss V Williams Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Newbury Novice Chase (12) ‘99 F3 Space Trucker 8 10-1 7-2F Mrs J Harrington (Ire) Last Race (No Of Days) 3rd Leopardstown Hcap Hurdle (11) ‘98 4111 Edredon Bleu 6 11-6 7-2F Miss H C Knight Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Sandown Hcap Chase (28) ‘97 434 Uncle Ernie 12 11-4 20-1 J G Fitzgerald Last Race (No Of Days) 4th Haydock Hcap Chase (19) ‘96 1142 Kibreet 9 10-12 7-1 P Hobbs Last Race (No Of Days) 2nd Elmbridge Hcap Chase (38) ‘95 111P Sound Reveille 7 10-10 7-1 C P E Brooks Last Race (No Of Days) P/UP Arkle Trophy (2) ‘94 43342 Snitton Lane 8 10-0 33-1 W Clay Last Race (No Of Days) 2nd Doncaster Hcap Chase (12) ‘93 F0322 Space Fair 10 11-1 5-1 R Lee Last Race (No Of Days) 2nd Doncaster Hcap Chase (22) Key Statistics: Horse must have won or placed last time out with a recent run (within a month). Market leaders have a good record and it will probably pay to look at the first five in the betting— preferably no older than nine.

The Brief

This is usually very competitive though I’m quite keen on the chances of FADOUDAL DU COCHET to claim back to back successes in this race. He won this race off a six pounds lower mark than last year but looks better than ever at the moment after his second to Arctic Copper in the Grade Two Newlands Chase at Naas. He excels in this type of event because of the strong gallop that is usually set as he likes to travel just off the pace and make his move on the scene late. The Naas form is very solid indeed and with there being very few up and coming two mile chasers this year, he holds sound claims in the race again and looks a big price at the 12-1 with Coral. DARK N SHARP hasn’t gone on like I thought he would do from last year and to me he has it all to do as he was beaten fair and square by Fadoudal last year yet is eight pounds worse off at the weights so if someone could explain to me why this horse is half the price of Arthur Moore’s ten year old gelding then answers on a post card please. One thing’s for sure he isn’t in the same kind of form as the selection and if the ground comes up soft then he will struggle to see the race out. SHAMAWAN looks the type to win a good handicap and has to be respected off what looks a winning mark. PALARSHAN is capable of better form than he’s shown but he will need the ground to come up testing if he’s to make an impact as he’s looked sure to benefit from two and a half miles. His jumping also comes into question for me which will definitely be tested at this sort of gallop. GOLDEN ALPHA is capable of winning a race like this also as his form ties in with Arkle favourite Azertyuiop so a bold showing from that horse will see his odds shorten dramatically for this. ESKLEYBROOK is one of my Favourites but this is where his winning ways end. He’s a front runner and he will struggle to get his own way here and off top weight he’s going to struggle— he will also be amateur ridden.

Conclusion Several can be fancied here but currently there is no better value than Arthur Moore’s FADOUDAL DU COCHET at 12-1 with Coral and I really feel he will be hard to keep out of the shake up.

5:10 Cathcart Challenge Cup Chase (Class A) Grade 2 (5yo+) 2m5f

Recent Trends: Year Form Horse Age Wt SP Trainer ‘02 F11 Royal Auclair 5 10-11 2-1F M C Pipe Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Timeform Nov Hcap Chase (47) ‘00 P Stormyfairweather 8 11-12 11-2 N J Henderson Last Race (No Of Days) P/U Tripleprint Gold Cup (96) ‘99 1331 Stormyfairweather 7 11-3 9-1 N J Henderson Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Doncaster Novice Chase (22) ‘98 21112 Cyfor Malta 5 10-8 9-4F M C Pipe Last Race (No Of Days) 2nd Scilly Isles Novices Chase (40) ‘97 1111 Sparky Gayle 7 11-3 3-1F C Parker Last Race (No Of Days) 1stAyr Novices Chase (33) ‘96 21313 Challenger Du Luc 6 11-3 10-1 M C Pipe Last Race (No Of Days) 3rd Kempton Novices Chase (53) ‘95 11P33 Couton 8 11-7 11-2 O Sherwood Last Race (No Of Days) 2nd Ascot Chase (36) ‘94 11 Raymylette 7 11-0 7-4 N J Henderson Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Warwick Novices Chase (37) ‘93 24223 Second Schedule 8 11-3 6-1 A L T Moore (Ire) Last Race (No Of Days) 3rd Arlington Premier Final (33) Key Statistics: Horse must be relatively fresh and not raced within a month with either win or placed form on it’s latest start. Avoid horses older than eight and stick to a British trained runner.

The Brief

At the time of writing it is almost impossible to provide a preview for this race due to the high number of double entries. Trainers have not yet made it clear which horses they will be running in this race and I feel it is unprofessional to give an analysis where it isn’t certain where a particular horse will run. Full daily updates throughout the Cheltenham festival can be found at http://www.prostaking.com where it is FREE of charge.

5:45 Vincent O'Brien County Hurdle (Handicap) (Class A) Grade 3 (5yo+) 2m1f

Recent Trends: Year Form Horse Age Wt SP Trainer ‘02 00422 Rooster Booster 8 11-1 8-1 P Hobbs Last Race (No Of Days) 2nd Tote Gold Trophy (33) ‘00 04011 Master Tern 5 10-3 9-2F J J O’Neill Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Kelso Novice Hurdle (13) ‘99 102 Sir Talbot 5 10-0 10-1 J A B Old Last Race (No Of Days) 2nd Cheltenham Hcap Hurdle (97) ‘98 24031 Blowing Wind 5 11-8 15-8F M C Pipe Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Imperial Cup (5) ‘97 43304 Barna Boy 9 10-12 14-1 N J Henderson Last Race (No Of Days) 4th Newbury Hcap Hurdle (34) ‘96 12341 Star Rage 6 10-0 14-1 J Harris Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Carlisle Hcap Hurdle (3) ‘95 01223 Home Counties 6 10-12 14-1 D J Mofatt Last Race (No Of Days) 3rd Newcastle Hcap Hurdle (26) ‘94 00222 Dizzy 6 10-0 12-1 P Monteith Last Race (No Of Days) 2nd Ayr Hcap Hurdle (6) ‘93 12231 Thumbs Up 7 10-2 16-1 N J Henderson Last Race (No Of Days) 1st Worcester Novices Hurdle (28) Key Statistics: Three important statistics here– horse must be at least placed on it’s last start, trained in Britain and suited to hold up tactics as this race is always run at a furious gallop. Despite the race always being ultra competitive it is generally a fancied runner that wins.

The Brief

If we haven’t made a profit by now then we’re in trouble because this is usually a very competitive affair and the one that takes my eye at what should be a decent price is the Nicky Henderson trained GREEN IDEAL, who will be very much suited by the end to end gallop that this race is usually run at. Indeed whatever your final choice for this race you must only consider horses that are held up off the pace as nine of the last ten winners have been ‘hold up’ horses. Nicky Henderson knows what it takes to win a County Hurdle having won it twice and in Green Ideal we have a horse that will be suited by the end to end gallop as he takes a decent hold in his races and he likes to come from off the pace. He’s had plenty of problems with his wind in the past and I wouldn’t be backing this horse if the ground ended up testing or very soft as he’s better on good to soft or good ground. However he showed that those problems were firmly behind him with an excellent effort to finish second to the smart Our Vic at Wincanton. That form looks very solid indeed as Brooklyns Gold and World Wide Web have since come out and won while Reviwer, Firestone and Rigmarole finished second on their next starts. All of these finished behind Green Ideal and I’m positive there’s a decent handicap in this one from his current mark.

Conclusion

Unfortunately there are no ante post prices at the time of writing but providing the ground is no worse than good to soft then I will be backing GREEN IDEAL to win this race.

Where’s My Money Going At The Festival — Thursday (Day Three)

A mythical £100 is given to me to bet on each day at the festival. The idea is to show a profit over the three days and hopefully it will give you a guide to my confidence levels on each race. 2.00 - LILIUM DE COTTE £5 EACH WAY 2.35 - BARACOUDA £10 WIN 3.15 - COMMANCHE COURT £10 EACH WAY 4.00 - KINGSCLIFF £25 WIN 4.35 - FADOUDAL DU COCHET £10 EACH WAY 5.10 - ????? £10 WIN 5.45 - GREEN IDEAL £5 WIN Total Stake: £100

FREE TO ENTER CHELTENHAM COMPETITION

WIN A FREE £100 BET FOR SATURDAY 15TH MARCH

Rules Simply select a horse in each of the following three races during the Cheltenham Festival. Champion Hurdle (Tuesday), Champion Chase (Wednesday), Gold Cup (Thursday). You must select one horse only for each race and have a £100 stake to play with on the three races. The winner will be the one that accumulates the most profit at SP. However if Lee Keys or ’Maths’ manage to beat everybody with either of their three rec-ommendations then nobody wins. Can you do better than the professionals? Once you’ve decided on your selections and stakes send them to admin@prostaking.com. They must reach us by 1pm Tuesday 11th March, any unclear or late entries will be void and our decision is final. Lee Keys Entry ‘Maths’ Entry Rooster Booster £20 win Landing Light— Marble Arch Moscow Flyer £50 win Moscow Flyer Commanche Court £30 win Best Mate (2 x £50 Trebles)

CHELTENHAM PREVIEW

By David Greenwood

‘David Greenwood is a freelance broadcaster and journalist working with the William Hill

organisation as well as Team Talk. He is also an experienced presenter at William Hill Radio and his excellent knowledge of the horse racing game will of no doubt be of benefit to you throughout the Cheltenham festival’.

Well I must admit that I was a little nervous writing this piece, knowing how comprehensive

the rest of the preview was likely to be I was anxious not to let the side down. I also wanted to try and avoid simply going over old ground, to do this I will take a good look at some of the unfancied horses in depth as well as pointing out some horses that have mainly been overlooked but have massive chances. The theory being that there will be so much written about the market leaders in the big races that there won’t be an edge. Remember that you have to bet against the crowd to make a profit at this game and backing every favourite at Cheltenham will be a quick way to the poorhouse. I have had to take a gamble on the going as it will have a massive bearing on re-sults, writing this around 2 weeks before the start of the festival I have assumed the going for the festival will be good (last year the meeting started with good to soft going however there was rain on the Monday night). If this is the case then I think we have a massive edge as nearly all the tri-als for the festival have been on soft ground or worse. The great thing about the festival is that every horse is trying added to this there are many horses running on unsuitable ground in fact it is true to say that if it wasn’t for being the festival they wouldn’t be running at all. It is also true to say that due do a reputation gained on soft going as well as liabilities built up these horses are falsely priced.

Although I am sure Lee will have his views on the big 3 races I felt that it wouldn’t do any

harm to give my views after all you will hear hundreds of views on the big 3 races.

CHAMPION HURDLE RHINESTONE COWBOY will be favourite, I am not a fan, always likely to make mistakes, no value in price, only ever been in 1 proper race and got beaten. I am not of the view that he would have won the bumper the winner Pizzaro seemed to have a bit in hand. Williamson has won the champion hurdle before on, Alderbrook but doesn’t appear to be making the same noises this year. Added to this he wont like lively ground ( ran once at Cheltenham this season on good and never looked comfortable eventually winning a neck at odds of 2/11 beating a collection of poor horses, this is a lay for me at under 11/4. Williamson’s riding style has made this horse look bet-ter than he really is in my opinion, there is no doubt he is useful but the highest rating I could give him would be 145 and he is running up against horses in this race rated 160 plus. Of the 2 stable mates I prefer INTERSKY FALCON (top novice last season, has greater experi-ence over his stablemate) he will love good ground; he is a lightly framed horse who’s best ever performance for me came at Aintree last year. Done nothing wrong at all this year and I thought he looked good on boxing day at Kempton, dithering in front before quickening away and win-ning well ( that race would have taught the horse a lot and I feel you need to be battle hardened to win the champion). Reportedly working extremely well at home of the fancied runners this would be the one for me. Jockey Charlie Swan is sounding very confident and after all he should know what a champion hurdler feels and travels like. I would expect to see this horse to drift in the betting on the run up to the race as the hype horse is RHINESTONE COWBOY. Both will be trying as different owners own them and this is the blue ribald event. If they are battling it out over the last I would expect Intersky to come out victorious. (Ladbrokes have been ducking In-tersky for the last 6 months.) On Friday 5th of March Jonjo came out and said that he favoured

Intersky Falcon over the cowboy. He points out that Intersky has a better action for good ground, “I would go for Intersky, he has experience, he is a quicker jumper and he’s beaten Champion hurdle horses in the trials on the way through. He has the experience, he is a quicker jumper and he’s beaten Champion Hurdle horses on the way through.” ROOSTER BOOSTER has improved throughout the year, likes Cheltenham won the Vincent O’Brien county handicap hurdle at the festival last year beating The Gatherer and Ben Ewar in a driving finish rated 144 at the time. No surprise to see the horse improve last year with the horse previously trained by N MITCHELL AND RIDDEN BY SOPHIE MITCHELL (I’ve always consid-ered her a 10lb penalty ((that’s probably being kind)) and she struggled to get on with this quirky character). For me the horse has been well campaigned this year by Philip Hobbs who has landed some nice prizes early on however the form at Cheltenham in November when landing an easy success beating Quazar 9 lengths is overrated. Since then there have been 2 successes both in ordinary fashion. I cant have this for the champion, it’s a tricky ride who is a high class handicapper (placed in tote gold trophy last season) but not a champion hurdle winner, always likely to make a mistake at the wrong time. Raceform feel the horse likes big fields and they de-scribe him as genuine, having watched his latest run at Sandown many times I feel a Timeform squiggle is required. He has now had a long season and I would be surprised to see rooster win but if ridden with restraint may run into a place. LIKE A BUTTERFLY- Ran once this year and beat Limestone Lad difficult to value that form, won the supreme novice hurdle last year, arguably a lucky winner. I am not sure what to make of LIKE A BUTTERFLY, ground and track wont be a problem but this horses price holds little ap-peal, (around 8/1) considering the horse it beat a neck last year WESTENDER is a 33/1 chance. It wouldn’t be the biggest surprise in the world if she won but I’m not convinced. Charlie Swan will ride LIKE A BUTTERFLY and he knows his way round Cheltenham. FLAME CREEK - Noel Chance rates this highly and has laid FLAME CREEK out for the race, this horse used to destroy Flagship Uberalles on the gallops and will love good ground, trainer has backed it to win the champion and bypassed the tote gold trophy (big prize would have been thrown in and a short price to win). Great performance in heavy ground at Cheltenham when rated 130. This horse has a very high cruising speed has been lightly raced only 6 races in his life and is a big player here. Its latest run at Haydock was simply astonishing blundering 3 out and still making a useful field look very ordinary on a line through the French furze this horse has the beating of Intersky Falcon. This is a lively outsider and has a big each way chance. Now lets rule a few out KOPECK, Wont run, horse has problems and sums up trainers luck after losing his brother rouble last year. ADAMANT APPROACH is 25/1 for the champion but will probably run in the Arkle, even if con-nections do choose the champion option its unlikely that he will be quick enough. GALILEO won the Royal and Sun alliance last year beat over the bar 3.5 lengths, hasn’t been seen since. Not quick enough for 2 miles on good ground despite top class polish flat form. Form of stablemate Kombinacja has been next to useless and she used to beat Galileo on the flat in Poland. PUNTAL, hyped up by Mark ‘The Couch’ Winstanley last summer as being a champion hurdle contender, form has been average throughout the year and this has no realistic chance in the champion. MARBLE ARCH, ran very well is last years champion but has shown little this year, did win a

race on the all weather however difficult to see what that proved. Not convinced it truly stays two miles and although Hughie Morrison is a great trainer it will be a minor miracle if he’s placed this year. (Timmy Murphy set to ride) LANDING LIGHT , 5th in the race last year, this is a moody horse that didn’t go a yard first time out when beaten a distance by Baracouda, finished 2nd to Rooster last time out with first time blinkers. The blinkers did there job but even at his absolute best this horse isn’t good enough to win the champion (he is well exposed, no room for improvement) and I wouldn’t back this one with counterfeit. Others that you can rule out with complete confidence are EPITRE, SELF DEFENCE, IBERUS (expensive David Johnson purchase looks another Magnus, will be lucky to win a seller let alone a champion hurdle), and Balapour. Now we can look at the outsiders with a good chance, HORS LA LOI 111 Ok it hasn’t shown much this season, well to be fair it’s shown next to nothing however the horse is best in fast run races, best in the spring and best round Cheltenham. Yes he was a lucky winner last year but he has less to beat this year, the horse was no where near fit on boxing day or on his latest start at Wincanton (Was carrying plenty of condition on both occa-sions and looked wrong in coat) 16 lengths behind rhinestone, not given a hard ride. Now unless the horse has turned sour which from what the stable have been saying he hasn’t then he has a massive chance and will arrive at the races with a live chance. Saying all that you are having to take a leap of faith with the horse and just have to hope the sun and Cheltenham bring the horse back to life. Couldn’t put you off backing the horse but wouldn’t be backing it myself. Update- (Reportedly worked brilliantly last week according to trainer however I have spoken to a contact in the Fanshawe camp who still doesn’t feel the horse is any where near right and told me it would be a surprise if he was even placed.) WESTENDER - Without doubt this is the outsider for me, currently trading at 33/1, the faster the ground the better for Westender, this horse also loves going left handed (best form over jumps at Cheltenham). He has a similar profile to Alderbrook on the flat and jumps well. The horse was beaten at the festival last year by a neck by LIKE A BUTTERFLY which looks good form (giving her 5lb and running on ground softer than ideal.) Raceform, comment for that race was, “Led af-ter 3rd, headed 2 out and slightly outpaced rallied strongly to press winner flat just held: backed, 11 week absence: back to best and a very smart effort considering this winner 5lbs: loves Chel-tenham and a sound surface, open to more improvement and will win more valuable hurdles.” The horse has run just once this year beaten 9 lengths by flame creek giving that runner a stone on heavy ground, this is the racing post analysis “Another competitive contest and people looking for Champion Hurdle clues had WESTENDER as a benchmark, although ground worries seemed to be borne out as the top weight went away. This was still a meritorious return on unfavourable ground and the way he jumped and ran until tiring suggests he has come back as good as ever. His form entitles him to a serious chance of making the frame in the Champion Hurdle in an open year.” In my opinion this horse is value at 33/1, he is the forgotten horse, however the Pipe team will want to win this race more than any other after the tragedy of last year and this horse has clearly been aimed at this race. I firmly expect Mc coy to take the mount (turned down the ride on MAR-BLE ARCH other Pipe runners including COPELAND (one run in Tote Gold Trophy never travel-ling) and PUNTAL Have been disappointing this season. Iberus is a million to 1 shot.

Selections: WESTENDER and INTERSKY FALCON, I would add a note of caution to Westen-der, there seems to be a small doubt as to whether he will run in the race. If you are going to back him wait for the day of the race.

Queen Mother Champion Chase Wednesday

MOSCOW FLYER is favourite having won the Arkle last year beating SEEBALD who re-opposes, again this wont be carrying my money always likely to make a mistake has a poor com-pletion rate and is far too short for such a competitive race. KADARAAN, for the past 4 months all the training for this horse is carried out by Jeremy Young as Paul Nicholls could not get a tune out of him; Young is the assistant trainer and has clearly had the desired effect on KADARAAN. The Isiris tipping line put this horse up at 40/1 forcing his price down to 20/1, victory over Cenkos and Lady Cricket left the horse priced at around 6/1. I have close connections with this stable and before the horse beat Cenkos I rang a stable girl (knows nothing about betting but knows a fast one from a slow one,) who knows the time of day to ask her about the horse. She said to me that Kadaraan was flying and that Cenkos had been below par for the past 2 months and was showing nothing at home. Interestingly Nicholls was trying to play down the gamble and has stuck by Cenkos. I only have 2 possible explanations, firstly he doesn’t want to get a reputation as a gambling trainer and secondly he doesn’t want to admit that Young has improved the horse 2 stone in 4 months after Nicholls had been struggling to find the key to the horse for 3 years. The horse is very very hard to weigh up. In effect the horse has found a new lease of life and the form at the start of the season when Moscow Flyer destroyed it is for me now irrelevant. I personally think the horse has a massive chance if the ground comes up good, even taking into account Cenkos wasn’t firing it still had Lady Cricket and Just Jasmine way behind and they are useful horses. I am not sure which way the price of the horse will go, the big 3 all have big liabilities and therefore have taken no chances with the horses price, (I was told without ante post liabilities it would be an 8 or 10/1 chance), they may play in the ring on the day to try and offset those liabilities however I doubt it. With a race such as this there should be plenty of money flowing around the books to even them out. Will probably start at 7/1 at that price I would just keep a watching brief. The problem is KADARAAN ruins the race from a punting point of view, he is in effect unex-posed. I couldn’t have Cenkos; he is still flat at home and is far too short in the market. I also couldn’t have Flagship, he is past his best, Native Upmanship finished 2nd last year however my view is that he needs further, not quick enough for top class 2 mile races finds 3 miles too far, should be campaigned at 2m 4. Saying that it wouldn’t surprise me if he ran into a place. I would love to see EDREDON BLUE win but I cant see it happening, his second in the tingle creek was a fair run but the form of that race hasn’t worked out. We know from past performances that he is a top class performer who is best on good ground however I have the feeling that he is now just past his best and will struggle. Florida Pearl is another horse who cant win for me, been showing nothing all year and this appears a desperation move. One horse that does have a chance at a big price is Seebald, 2nd to Young Deveraux in what was effectively the Victor Chandler was a good performance, Seebald was conceding over a stone and was ridden by Rodi Greene who is a 10lb inferior jockey to AP. This Horse has now had a nice break, likes Cheltenham, and has already given Moscow Flyer a serious race. With-out doubt this is the each way horse of the race at 14/1. On the day I would expect this to be an 8/1 chance at best, possibly less if the Pipe / Mc coy team are on form. Since I wrote this the owners of Tiutchev have decided to have a go at the race rather than sending the horse for prep in Japan. The horse failed to concede 23lb to Eskleybrook but was then impressive when win-ning the Ritz club. Now Tiutchev runs riding plans for Seebald are up in the air and it just adds a

further complication to the race. I can’t come up with a firm selection for the race but will probably lay Cenkos if I can lay him at under 13/2. Florida Pearl has now also been confirmed a runner which adds another imponderable to the race and this is a race to watch rather than bet in.

Gold Cup BEST MATE was available at 7/4 with Fred Dones until they reportedly took a £50,000 bet on the horse. I was amazed to hear this as in my experience they don’t want to take a bet more than £25, they are developing a website and it will be interesting to see what sort of bets they take on that when up and running. Anyway every one knows best mates form he has done every that Henrietta has asked on him this year and he has a massive chance. If I was pricing this race up I would put BEST MATE in at 4/6. BEEF OR SALMON ; every one has there own opinion over whether or not novices are capable of winning the Gold Cup in there first season, I give the horse no chance, I have layed the horse at 6.2 and will probably be laying this again on the day. He has won a series of relatively soft races in Ireland all on soft ground. He has run twice on good ground in his career and has been beaten both times. He has never travelled across the Irish Sea and is really going to struggle in this level being only a novice. His price is far too short for what he has achieved and I cannot have him at all. Of the rest Hussard Collonges is one of the most overrated horses in training, for me he has never been top class and has little to no chance, his form at Wetherby behind Marlborough is questionable and a defeat at the hands of Truckers Tavern (another no hoper in the big race,) again exposed him for what he is a decent handicapper who isn’t top class. I will be laying this a place only at anything under 7/2. Commanche Court, put up by a tipping line and is hence under priced, has been laid out all year for this race and on his second in this race last year must have a big chance. Trainer was moan-ing that the bookies had the horse underpriced which indicates to me that it is fancied by con-nections. Don’t be surprised if this runs another big race; remember this trainer produced Pappil-ion for the National with little previous seasonal form. I would expect this horse to be in the places may well be second again. Rince Ri the stablemate still hasn’t recaptured his form after 2 bouts of colic in the summer, now appears to be being aimed at the Grand National. See More Business defies his age, 3rd last year however difficult to see him placing here. Valley Henry is a classy horse on good ground and beat chives last time out, highly rated by Paul Nicholls and sure to be popular with punters, (Big Mac has been talking this horse up for 6 months and will do so again on the lead up to the big race.) (Update) Wont now run, prefers flat track and owner has see more business in the race.) Selections. Best mate or Commanche Court.

Bits and Bobs

Charlie Mann told me that Merchants Friend will run in the Irish National and not at the festival, he feels it has an excellent chance of winning the Irish National but the horse is a tricky ride. If you are thinking of backing Limestone Lad in the stayers a quick note of caution is that the horse is a very poor traveller, last time he made the trip across the Irish Sea he didn’t eat for 5 days. Clearly this gives baracouda a massive edge. I personally feel that baracouda will start around the 5/2 mark and at that price he would definitely be value. However saying that be care-ful with the going Baracouda is best on soft ground and wouldn’t want it too quick. In the Arkle Azertyuiop is a good thing and is a banker of the meeting for me. In the supreme novice hurdle Back in front has a massive chance, he is a 5/4 chance on my book. His form is good, won a 17 runner maiden hurdle, noted as a sound jumper, finished third in the champion bumper and has won on firm as lively as good to firm. Timeform Info. Having spoken to a good friend who works for the Timeform organisation I have a couple of bits of info. Never - Owned by Sir Peter O Sullivan this is a long way clear on ratings in the county hurdle; ANDY GIN- strongly backed by those at the top of the Timeform spectrum, these boys know there stuff and this looks a lively outsider for the triumph... This horse is definitely worth a few pounds each way. Generally a 33/1 shot.

Well finally I just want to wish everyone a profitable 3 days.

Saturday April 5th 3:45 Martell Cognac Grand National Chase Showcase Handicap (Class A) Grade 3 (6yo+) £ 4m 4f

Recent Trends: Year Form Horse Age Wt SP Trainer ‘02 053360 Bindaree 8 10-4 20-1 N Twiston-Davies Last Race (No Of Days) Upl Cheltenham Hcap Chase (25) ‘00 14552F Red Marauder 11 10-11 33-1 N B Mason Last Race (No Of Days) Fell Haydock Hcap Chase (42) ‘99 005043 Papillon 9 10-12 10-1 T M Walsh (Ire) Last Race (No Of Days) 3rd Leopardstown Hcap Hurdle (20) ‘98 55105 Earth Summit 10 10-5 7-1F N Twiston-Davies Last Race (No Of Days) 5th Haydock Hcap Chase (35) ‘97 231112 Lord Gyllene 9 10-0 14-1 S A Brookshaw Last Race (No Of Days) 2nd Uttoxeter Hcap Chase (23) ‘96 F22F12 Rough Quest 10 10-7 7-1F T Casey Last Race (No Of Days) 2nd Gold Cup Cheltenham (16) ‘95 3625 Royal Athlete 12 10-6 40-1 Mrs J Pitman Last Race (No Of Days) 5th Doncaster Hcap Hdl (35) ‘94 P10 Minnehoma 11 10-8 16-1 M C Pipe Last Race (No Of Days) Upl Gold Cup Cheltenham (23) Key Statistics: (Since 1970) Age: 8yo 4 9yo 10 10yo 5 11yo 8 12yo 5 Weight: No horse has carried more than 11-0 to victory in the last eighteen years. We are looking for a mature horse that is tough and has been quite heavily campaigned that year. In the last six runnings all winners had run at least five times that season. Winning form isn’t vital and stamina in the pedigree is more important.

The Brief

There’s no doubt that SHOTGUN WILLY was impressive on his comeback in the Red Square Handicap at Haydock and I also had information a long time ago that Shotgun Willy was being trained for this. He is a class act but he has 11-7 to carry and no horse has managed that for eighteen years. The recent profile of winners suggests a busy campaign and yet this horse will go to Aintree on the back of one run. He should have no problems staying the trip but his stable have a poor record in the race and he doesn’t represent much value at current odds, that said he’s likely to be well backed by the public and could go off favourite on the day. Stable mate AD HOC was going really well down the back straight in this race last year and so far has been solely campaigned over hurdles to protect his handicap mark. He is due to race at the Festival this week in the William Hill Hcap Chase and a bold showing in that will see his odds shorten in the betting. His profile is far more convincing than that of his stable mate and with the weights likely to rise he’s going to carry above the dreaded eleven stone. CHIVES will be attempting to carry the mantle of running in the Gold Cup and trying to follow up in the National. A big showing at Cheltenham this week will see his odds tumble dramatically. However although he’s bred to be suited by the test at Aintree he does lack experience and I will be looking elsewhere for the winner. GUNNER WELBURN’S chance depends on the ground and he is not one to be interested in at his current odds. This horse has to have soft ground and is nowhere near effective under faster conditions. He confirmed his well being with a smooth success at Newbury but he looks averagely treated and if you fancy him then it would be best to wait for the day itself. GINGEMBRE has a mountain to climb carrying 11-7 and would only run in the race anyway if the ground was good or better. Rates poor value at current odds!

The Brief

BINDAREE will be trying to win back to back Nationals, only five horses have ever done this going right back to 1839. The last one to do it was the great Red Rum and it is this statistic that Bindaree will have to live up to if he is to do it. I can’t see it personally and there are others that are better handicapped. IRIS BLEU has been clobbered by the handicapper for his win in the Agfa Diamond at Sandown earlier in the season where I’m sure Tom Scudamore would have been spoken to by Pipe for winning by 23 lengths. The horse has ran well since off his new mark when third to Shotgun Willy at Haydock but he’s always going to be vulnerable to a better handicapped horse from now on. KINGSMARK is another that makes little appeal ante post because of his preference for softer conditions and I’ve always felt that this is a small field horse anyway. He’s not one to be interested in. Saturday’s impressive Sandown winner KILLUSTY has attracted attention in the market but he’s had plenty of training problems and it is generally a tough horse that wins at Aintree, there is no room for horses with dodgy pins round here. My advice for the big one is to take the 33-1 with Ladbrokes about the James Joseph Mangan trained Irish raider MONTYS PASS. This horse is actually running today in a hurdle race at Naas and at the time of writing the result is not known. This is the final piece of preparation for the big one and I don’t expect fire-works today this is merely to put the horse right. Montys Pass is proven on all types of ground and his form looks very solid. He finished third to More Than A Stroll in the Munster National, form which is starting to look very good indeed. Arctic Copper finished second and that horse defeated big Grand An-nual hope Fadoudal Du Cochet in the Newalnds Chase at Naas. Prior to that run he was victorious in the Kerry National at Listowel on fast ground beating the now Jonjo O’Neill trained Putsometnby by two lengths. This has always been the target and his profile fits the criteria for the National perfectly. I am just sorry that I didn’t beat Pricewise in the Racing Post, who advised this horse at 40-1 on the 5th March.

Conclusion

MONTYS PASS is the ante post advice for the Grand National at 33-1 with Ladbrokes.

A Look Ahead To The

2003 Flat Turf

Season

The Flat Season For The Beginner

The Flat Season Starts at the end of March and ends During Early November. There will be Thousands of horses Trained by Hundreds of trainers racing for many varied prizes on 35 Differ-ent courses during these months and the First Rules you must learn if you want to stay afloat are these. Rule 1) there is always somebody after your Money and they usually get it Rule 2) You Trust Nobody Rule 3) you Do Not have a Divine Right to Win Rule 4) You Need to Read Rules 1 to 3 Again I tend to advise a very cynical approach to "freshmen” Gamblers. This is always the best policy until you are happy that you can trust people as there are undoubtedly the odd times when you can trust people and prosper. However until that burden of proof is proven beyond reasonable doubt you will do well to approach the game with cynicism and Respect. Let’s face it; there is al-ways someone after your money. Bookmakers want your business. They don’t want to take all your money, but they want a fair share of it on a regular basis .Trainers Want your Money if you are considering Ownership. Even If you do buy a horse you are still not buying your position in the "Elite” of the game, you are still seen as a small irrelevant cog in a very big wheel. You rarely hear the Full Truth from either Trainers or jockeys. Newspapers and Racing Publications want your Money to sell you their wares. Tipsters want your money. Some Tipsters are the lowest form of Humanity and don’t assume that anything anyone says is accurate, correct or even Legal. Everybody is in the same boat. Its Self interest all the way. It’s about how much you can get out of the game and how little you can give away at times. I Am the Only person in the game you can trust. If you believe that then go any re- read the rules again. You don’t Trust anyone until they have proven themselves over a period of time.

‘It is a game where you can be a factory worker and still have opinion’s just as valid a billionaire stockbroker.’

If you approach the game in the right manner, you will see why it is the Sport of Kings and why a Tramp has as much right to enjoy the beauty of the game as a King of Kings. The Feeling of bet-ting winners, pitting your wits against the enemy Through the millennia we have come to love and respect the horse's beauty, speed, power, stamina, grace and loyalty. You will see horses of the highest class bred from the Purest Blood lines over many centuries all racing for the top prizes in International competition. It is a game where you can be a Factory worker and still have opinion’s just as valid as a Billion-aire stockbroker, and watch that opinion proves to be correct as Your Horse wins. Without mov-ing into advanced Topics such as Breeding, Handicapping or Betting Professionally the aim here is to give The Novice Punter a Framework in which he they can understand what will happen be-tween March and November. In the next few pages I will be looking simply at the various Classes of races and where they stand in the game and the Variety of abilities that horses have. Future Magazines will see more advanced topics.

Ratings We Judge the ability of horses for many reasons. We do this for betting purposes, Breed-ing purposes, Accuracy and because it is a sport. We judge them by Ratings. Each horse ( That has ran at least 3 times) is given an official rating by the Handicapper , regardless of whether he’s a Top Horse that is far too good to run in handicaps or a slow coach who will never win a race . This helps us to judge horses and allow them to find out what races they should be racing in. The Official Handicappers job is hard and his ratings are only individual opinions. His Brief is to rate horses so accurately that if they ran in handicaps they would all Dead Heat to-gether which illustrates how hard it is. All you really need to understand is that horses are rated on their ability and the range in their ratings goes from 0 to 130 +.A Classic winning horse, such as Alex Ferguson’s Rock of Gibraltar, will be worth Millions and will have a rat-ing around the 130,s. A Very Poor animal that struggles to win a race and who looks to be devoid of any ability will be rated at the other end of the scale and may be rated only 20. These types, and every horse between them Race in many different races over the sea-son. Here is a rough table that explains the types of racing in England and the approxi-mate ratings of the horses that are eligible to race in them.

CLASS of RACE

RATING BAND

(Approximate) Group 1 130+ Group 2 125+ Group 3 120+ Listed Race 115+ Conditions Race Any Classified Stakes Any Class A Handicap 0-115 Class B Handicap 0-110 Class C Handicap 0-100 Class D Handicap 0-90 Class E Handicap 0-75 Class F Handicap 0-70 Class G Handicap 0-65 Maiden Races Any Claiming Races Any Selling Races Any Nurseries Two Year Olds

TYPES OF RACES

CLASS DESCRIPTION OF CLASS GROUP 1 Group 1 Races are Championship races that the best horses try and Win. They include the 5 Classics and many other Championship races at different dis-tances throughout the year. There are normally only a handful of genuine Group 1 Horses each year at Each Distance. GROUP 2 Group 2 is the Highest standard of race a horse can win apart from a Group 1 Race. Group 2 Winners are Generally Better than Group 3 Winners although You will see Horses Move in and out of each Group Grade as they Target themselves at future races. Group 2 Winners are high class horses with proven established form. GROUP 3 Group 3 Races are the 3rd Highest Grade of race a Horse Can win. A Typical Group 3 race may be made up of one or two horses dropped from Group 2 Com-pany, and several hopefuls graduating as winners of listed races or even winners of High Class Handicaps. LISTED CLASS Listed Races Bridge the Gap Between High Class Handicaps and Group Races. It is not a Great Leap from a listed Class winner to go on and try and win a Group 3 race and it is done frequently. Handicap winners can also often move up to Listed suc-cess easily at times. You usually find a mixture of improving horses and established older horses and it often pays to go with the Improving types rather than the Horses failing at Group 3 level. CONDITIONS RACES These races make up the Entire Non Handicap program below Listed Class. People often make the mistake of assuming that Conditions Races are just the sin-gle type of race. In fact they are comprised of Many types of race such as Maidens) .These in-clude Auction races , Classified Races, Selling races, Races limited to Amateurs and Appren-

tices . These races are “Open “races and to run you just have to have a horse that does not ex-ceed a certain Rating. Conditions races are invariably numbered Class B , C or D MAIDEN RACES Maidens are horses that have yet to win a race under the rules of racing. Once you win a race you are no longer a Maiden. These races are either for horses of the same age, or for horses of all ages. In this case there is a weight allowance for younger less experienced horses and that weight allowance is on a sliding scale and changes every fortnight throughout the year on the assumption that the younger horses mature during the season. You see many unraced and lightly raced horses start their careers in Maiden races. There is a diverse quality of races. Some Maiden races are High Quality affairs and some are very poor. HANDICAP RACES Horses that have ran 3 times are allotted a “handicap “mark by the handicapper if it has not already Won. Handicaps are the Bread and Butter races on the Rac-ing Card and the range of talent is enormous. You can have High Class Handicaps contested by horses rated up to 115 and yet you can have very low quality handicaps. The Lowest Handicap race is for horses rated 0-60 although many are rated a lot lower than 60. There is a sliding scale ( See Previous Diagram) that are numbered from Class A , B, C, D , E , F and Finally G .Obviously the Better Class horses contest the Higher Grade and Horses move in and out of each grade as their rating allows. The Official Handicapper will rate an improving horse regularly and allot a higher rating forcing that horse into higher grades. A Class E Winner may have to race against Class D Horses. Equally a horse that is fail-ing to win races off their handicap mark is dropped in the ratings to allow them to compete in lower grade in attempt to win a race. You see a couple of horses each year make huge improve-ment and go all the way through the handicap stages and improve beyond recognition. Handicap Races are generally seen as the most competitive of all races but there are many exceptions. CLAIMING RACES Claiming races are at the Low end of the Quality scale .They are seen as superior to Selling Class races but you can also see Claiming races that are far bet-ter than some Handicaps . These races are different in that the Horses trainer “handicaps “ his own horse in each race .Trainers are asked to “Nominate “ the amount of money they are pre-pared to allow someone else to “Claim” their horses for . Therefore the Lower the weight that a trainer wants his horse to carry , and therefore the greater chance of victory , also results in the horse being able to be bought cheaply if it does win , by someone else. If a Trainer does not want to Lose his horse, he can allot it a high weight which reduces his chance of victory. SELLING RACES Selling Races are the Bottom of the Pile and contested by the lowest class of horse. Sometimes you can have Selling handicaps or just Selling races at level weights. The Winner of a Selling race is then Auctioned after the race to the highest bidder. Many Owners who win sellers and don’t want to Lose them at the subsequent auction Buy their own horses back at the auction and they pay a commission to the racecourse. NURSERY RACES Nursery Races are Handicaps for 2 year old horses only. They work in a similar way to Handicaps for older horses although they have to have achieved a cer-tain placing in a previous race to qualify for a Nursery. These are the Races that you will be watching in the next few months up to November and how they are formulated and what types of horse can race in those races. It is only a basic guide and future editions of the magazine will see more advanced topics.

Horse Ownership and Hidden Costs

Some of you may be Race Horse Owners. Others may aspire to be and have looked into it in the past. My Year of ownership was not an experience that I’d care to repeat in terms of the costs in-volved. I Thought That I would just give you a taste of the exact costs that I faced in my venture . You often hear Pundits and Trainers talking about the Costs of ownership , but do they really tell you the full truth ? What about the Hidden extras ? If a Trainer charges you £200 a week to Train your horse, does that mean that your Bill is only £800 a month ? If many of us take a Car to a garage , and the Mechanics Diagnose multiple problems that we had previously never heard of , how can we be sure that the problems are genuine, and how can we be sure that the costs of the repair are fair and legitimate unless we are experts and experienced at the business ? I Thought I would give you the Full 1 Year Costs of owning my racehorse and all the Hidden Costs involved. Naturally every horse is different and every Training Bill will be different as horses and trainers are individuals and many different circumstances can happen .You will see from the Following Costs just how diverse the costs can be and how it is impossible to be sure whether your horse really needs all the treatment that is given to them . All owners have different experiences based on their personality and what they want . I have to say I felt like I was paying for somebody else’s child. If you did that you would not be certain how much Nappies would cost, Calpol, Clothes, shoes , Food , Health products, Babysitters, nannies and all sorts of things would cost .You would just get a bill each month and pay for the Lot !!! The same is true of owning a horse in my opinion . Bills Flood through like they are going out of fashion and you have no real idea whether you can trust the trainer, whether the treatment is necessary, why they have had it and what result it has had. When I service my car the mechanic always rings with an estimate and what the problems are , and asks if I would like it fixed . That’s expected and the Norm. However a Trainer will not treat you like that in my experience although I am sure some treat their owners differently .

‘All owners have different experiences based on their personality and what they want . I have to say I felt like I was paying for somebody else’s child’.

One example of my horse was that he had the occasional bad back. I did not receive a phone call saying “ Hello, your horse needs some back treatment , and I feel we ought to get some back manipulation therapy . Its £60 a visit and we need a week’s and although it is in the horses best interests , I felt I ought to warn you that your bill will rise next month” Rather than that, you get the Bill a month later and it leaves you not only holding a hatred for V.A.T, It leaves you wondering whether it was genuine, whether the horse needed the treatment in the first place, or whether you were being turned over by a person who knows so well that you have no chance of ever finding out !! Good luck to you if you try it . I only wanted to share my experiences and give the Full picture . Below is my yearly costs and the Broken Down costs over the 12 months and they don’t even include a £1 a Mile Charge for Transport from stables to the races !!! Even My Accountant told me I was the most stupid of all his clients in owning a horse .

YEARLY BILLS V.A.T TOTAL COST

13,837.20 2421.51 16258.71

Bills No Of Items Annual Costs VAT Total Cost Reasons Training Fees 52 £9,880 £1729 £11,609 Agreed Rate £190 Week Blacksmith 12 £693.00 £121.27 £814.27 New Shoes £57.75 a visit Vitamin Supplemnt 12 £144.00 £25.20 £169.20 Health Supplement £12 monthly-Propolis Bee Pollen 12 £48.00 £8.40 £56.30 Anti Bacterial Supplement £4 Month Copper 24 £144.00 £25.20 £169.20 Skeleton Supplement £6 Fortnightly Massage 12 £48.00 £8.40 £56.30 Massage

For the horse £4 monthly Back Manipulation 28 £1680 £294.00 £1974.00 Curing Muscle Displacement £60 per visit Wormer 8 £120.00 £21.00 £141.00 Removal of Worms £15 Per Dose Horse Dentist 2 £70.00 £12.25 £82.25 Routine Check Ups £35 a Visit Racecourse Gallop 1 £25.00 £4.38 £29.38 Every Gallop

Racecourse £25.00 Clipping 1 £20.00 £3.50 £23.50 Winter Clipping charges New Rug 1 £30.00 £5.25 £35.25 Supplies for Stable and bedding Stable Lad Exp 12 £200.00 £35.00 £235.00 £25 x Each time the horse races Racing Plates 12 £312.00 £54.60 £366.60 £25 x Each time the horse races Trainers Expenses 12 £300 £52.50 £352.50 £25 x Each time the horse races Flu Vaccination 1 £33.20 £5.81 £39.01 Yearly Vaccination For Flu

Scoping 2 £90.00 £15.75 £105.75 Horse was Scoped Twice. HIDDEN EXTRAS Travelling Costs The Costs for me were £ 1.00 a Mile from the Stable to Each Individual Racecourse on each run.

LINCOLN HANDICAP

Doncaster March 22nd

The Freephone Stanley LINCOLN Showcase Handicap (Class B) (4yo+) 1m Year Winner Draw1st Draw2nd Draw3rd Draw4th Ran Ground 1991 Amenable 23 7 2 14 25 Soft 1992 High Low 17 5 6 22 24 Good 1993 High Premium 5 6 9 4 24 Gd/Fm 1994 Our Rita 6 7 5 22 24 Gd/Fm 1995 Roving Minstrel 11 23 4 10 23 Gd/Fm 1996 Stone Ridge 6 7 15 1 24 Soft 1997 Kuala Lipis 21 6 4 10 24 Gd/Fm 1998 Hunters Brora 23 12 6 5 23 Good 1999 Right Wing 8 11 7 22 24 Gd/Fm 2000 John Fernley 1 2 21 8 24 Good 2001 Nimello 1 6 2 4 23 Soft 2002 Zucchero 7 6 13 12 23 Gd/Sft THE Freephone Stanley Lincoln Handicap (March 22nd) is the first of many cavalry Charges on the flat season and some say it is the hardest handicap to take apart and that’s probably true. However despite the Draw not being known yet, or the Ground, I want to get the Short listed run-ners that may be great value come the day itself. Statistically there are better races from which to get the winner but we do have some help. In This Column I aim to get the list of Potential winners down to a very small list and Hope to find some Ante Post Value.

Index to Pin-Point the Winner of the 2003 Lincoln

A) Statistics B) Breaking the Statistics Down

C) Elimination stage 1 D) Elimination stage 2

E) Subsection Rejections F) The Penultimate Shortlist G) The Winner and Reasons

STAGE (A)

LINCOLN STATISTICS

1) Ideally you want a Low draw (stalls 1 to 8), or else a draw in the highest third (17-24) 2) You need a runner that has winning form at The Distance of 8 furlongs 3) Colts and Geldings are preferred ahead of Fillies who don’t win 4) Statistics suggest All Weather Runners have a slight edge on Grass Runners 5) History and Class Demand you Rule out the Runners rated 100 or above 6) History and Class Demand you Ignore Horses rated Less than 80 7) The Ideal Rating of the winner should fall between 85 and 97 (A Very safe alternative would be between 82 and 99) 8) Paul Cole Has the best record in recent years with 3 wins 9) Good Recent form is Vital and placed in any of its last 3 races is a key trend 10) Don’t bet horses aged 7 or over in the Race

STAGE B

BREAKING THE STATISTICS DOWN

(1)DRAW BIAS

Ideally you want a Low draw (stalls 1 to 8), or else a draw in the highest third (17-24) This year’s race has a safety limit of 24 horses so we can divide the Draws into 3 Quintals of 1-8, 9-16 and 17-24. The recent Record of the First 4 Home is in the Table at the start of the analysis and you can see that Low Draws do dominate these days. Results indicate that a high draw was a considerable advantage in the early years but now LOW Drawn horses are favoured. Overall 18 of the 38 Lincoln winners have started from a single-figure (far-side) draw, including 8 of the last 10. Stalls 12 to 20 have not recorded a Winner in the last 10 years as they race up the disad-vantaged middle of the course and tend to Miss out on any Draw Bias. In the Last 10 Years stalls 1 to 8 have produced 7 winners obviously we don’t know what the Draw is at this stage but this can be reflected upon when you make your final selection.

(2)DISTANCE

2) You need a runner that has winning form at The Distance of 8 furlongs Although it is fair to say that Horses have won this race since 1990 without having previously won at the Distance, the strike rate of such horses is very low and the horses that have never won at the distance before have accounted for about 44% of the runners. Since 1990 The Lincoln Winner had proven winning form at a Mile on 10 Occasions Since 1990 The Lincoln Winner Had NO Proven winning form at a Mile on only 3 Occasions . Stamina is Vital in this straight Mile and an ability to stay 9f is a bonus.

(3)SEX

3) Colts and Geldings are preferred ahead of Fillies who don’t win.

Going back to 1990 and analysing the Sex of the Winner, and the Number of runners each repre-sentative has achieved points the way to the Make Gender as seen below.

Sex Number of Wins Number of Runners Colts 4 63 Fillies 0 21 Geldings 5 146 Horses 2 58 Mares 2 16

(4)PREPERATION

4) Statistics suggest All Weather Runners have a slight edge on Grass Runners

Recent trends have suggested that your horse has a better chance if it has raced on the All Weather this winter. Whilst this is not imperative, the results of horses coming straight from the all weather, and the Flat, Favour the Sand Runners . It makes it almost twice as likely that the Winner of the Lincoln comes from the All Weather and not the Grass.

Last Race Number of Wins Number of Runners All Weather 7 100 Grass 6 187

(5)HISTORY and CLASS

5) History and Class Demand you Rule out the Runners rated 100 or above It’s very sensible to Rule out the Runners rated 100 or above on the day. Only 1 Winner in recent years was rated above 100 (Right Wing) who went on and won 4 listed races And 2 Group Races later in his career. You probably want to have that ceiling of 100 as the weight. Very Few horses Good enough to defy “100 “here turn up to race.

FINISHING POSITION OF EVERY RUNNER RATED 100 OR MORE SINCE 1993

21 4 5 10 21 3 10 Won 17 22 24 5 18 23

(6) History and Class Demand you Ignore Horses rated Less than 80 This is mainly for 2 Reasons. Firstly Horses rated Less than 80 are unlikely to get to race as they are Out of the Handicap and are in danger of being disqualified from running as they are only al-lowing 24 runners for safety purposes. To get a run they have to hope that there are non runners from horses above them in the weights. Invariably the runners under 80 tend to race in the Spring Mile, which is the Consolation race. Secondly only 4 Horses Rated less than 80 have finished in the First 5 home since 1993. Those years were perhaps significantly 1993, 1994 and 1995 and the race has Got Classier since then.

(See the tables in Statistic 7)

(7)RATINGS RANGE

7) The Ideal Rating of the winner should fall between 85 and 97

(A Very safe alternative would be between 82 and 99)

You can see from the Following figures that In recent years the Lincoln is now a classier race and that the race is now Won by slightly better horses than was the case several years ago .IF You stay with Horses rated between 82 and 92 You would have found the winner 7 times in the last 8 years . What I would suggest is that you increase that "Top Band” of "92 “and raise it to "97" to accom-modate both the increase in quality and the fact that the weights may or may not go up. The 50 Horses that have finished 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th or 5th in the last 10 years were dominated by horses rated between 85 and 97. In Fact 30 of the 50 horses, and most winners filled these criteria and with the Race getting better as years go by; it is probably wise to stay with this range as the race is improving. OFFICIAL RATINGS OF THE FIRST 5 HORSES IN EACH LINCOLN SINCE 1993 Year Winner Runner-Up Third Fourth Fifth 2002 91 83 98 90 87 2001 89 92 90 100 104 2000 90 87 104 95 85 1999 100 90 87 89 81 1998 90 84 95 85 100 1997 86 89 85 83 86 1996 87 89 86 83 91 1995 82 87 87 84 79 1994 76 82 85 85 86 1993 80 96 76 79 74

(8)PAUL COLE

8) Paul Cole Has the best record in recent years with 3 wins His Full record is 9+21+W+W+12+W+8 But this would be a weak statistic as it’s unrealistic to ex-pect Cole to train the winner Every year and this Statistic is not lost on Odds Compilers who will adjust the odds down to accommodate the Statistic.

(9)RECENT FORM

9) Good Recent form is Vital and placed in any of its last 3 races is a key trend Despite the Competitive Nature of the race History tells us that the Winner does not have several Duck Eggs (000) Next to their name, and you really want a horse that has been at Least placed in any one of his recent 3 races. Good Recent Form is important

(10)AGE

10) Don’t bet horses aged 7 or over in the Race The Following table shows you the Age of the First 5 Horses Home in each of the last 10 years. You can see from the following Age Table that by Far the best age groups are 4, 5 and 6 year olds. From the 50 Horses to Finish between 1st and 5th Place since 1993 a massive 46 were aged 4, 5 or 6 and that’s a Trend worth sticking with. AGE OF THE FIRST FIVE HORSES HOME IN EVERY LINCOLN SINCE 1993

Date Winner Second Third Fourth Fifth 2002 6 4 7 7 4 2001 5 4 6 4 5 2000 5 5 6 5 5 1999 5 5 6 6 5 1998 8 6 4 7 4 1997 4 4 4 4 4 1996 4 5 5 4 4 1995 4 4 5 6 4 1994 5 4 5 4 5 1993 5 4 4 5 5

STAGE C ELIMINATION STAGE 1

I have already assessed the Runners and have taken out the Following Horses at my first Elimi-nation stage .This stage is a simple 3 Pronged Attack on the Strongest Statistics. a) Horses that don’t fall into the Ideal Weight Category (rated between "85" and "97") b) I have eliminated all the Fillies in the race as we have yet to see a recent winner c) Horses that are outside the Age of 4, 5 or 6 years old have been eliminated

We have been Left with the Following List of 43 Potential Winners Adiemus Akshar Albashoosh Alfarid Atlantic Ace Atlantic Rhapsody Broadway Score Cats Whisk-ers Certain Justice Colisay Contract Courageous Duke Diamond Max Digital Dumaran Finished Article Football Crazy Funfair Golden Chalice Highland Reel Internationalguest Island Light Jabaar Jewel of India Lingo Lord Protector Nashaab Oakley Rambo Pablo Passing Glance Pen-tecost Private Ben Rafferty Sahaat Salute Scent of Victory Scottys Future Selective Spanish Don Temple of Artemis Winning Venture Zarin Zawrak.

STAGE D ELIMINATION STAGE 2

This List can soon be whittled down as we have yet to consider The Following 3 Stats.

A) Non-Distance Winners B) Horses with Lack of Good recent form

C) Horses who have not raced on the sand. I Think with the above 3 Statistics a deal of care is needed. A Horse May not have WON at 8 fur-longs but may have been beaten in a photo at the distance and its crude to automatically disre-gard them. It would also be Crude to Throw out horses that have not raced on the sand just be-cause the record of these horses are slightly inferior in recent years .You could also argue that just because a Horse has not shown any form in his previous 3 starts does not necessarily follow that He cant do so in the race . You have to tread carefully or the Winner May slip between your fingers. Therefore I am Eliminating ANY Horse (from the shortlist) that has failed on at least Two of the Three Statistics and Giving any horse that Just fails on one of the Criteria the benefit of the doubt , Unless they are Patently out of form and have been for some time . I also want to Rule out horses that are unraced in Over 12 months as that means they have missed the whole of last season. I Am also Ruling out Horses that have Downgraded stables since the Last season as Horses thought generally Good enough to win a Big Prize like this are usually retained by their previous stable and Not rejected and moved on to smaller trainers .

Further Eliminations

Eliminated are Albashoosh Atlantic Rhapsody Pentecost Winning Venture Football Crazy Lingo Scent of Victory Scottys Future Courageous Duke Lord Protector Temple of Artemis Rafferty Spanish Don Zawrak Contract Jabaar

STAGE E SUBSECTIONS REJECTIONS

So where we now and how close are we to finding the Winner? The List after Elimination Stage 1 has left us with 43 possible winners. After Elimination Stage 2 we have eliminated a further 16 horses. We are still left with 27 Runners that can win the race. I have to get this list down further. I am doing this by creating some “Subsections rejections". These are Reasons WHY Certain horses or trainers can confidently be expected NOT To win this race as there patterns in their form, record, or training regimes. I Have Decided to Create 4 Subsections in an attempt to cre-ate a Final Shortlist. The 4 Subsections are described in Detail shortly and they are Listed Below.

4 Subsections

1) Eliminating the "Doubtful Runners” 2) Eliminating Stables with Poor Strike Rates

3) Eliminating Trainers with Poor Records in March 4) Eliminating FORM + PROFILE Horses

The Shortlist of 27

Pablo Dumaraun Broadway Score Sahaat Atlantic Ace Selective Funfair Colisay Private Ben Diamond Max Passing Glance Nashaab Salute Certain Justice Zarin Adiemus Golden Chalice Finished Article Internationalguest Island Light Akshar Oakley Rambo Highland Reel Cats Whiskers Jewel of India Digital Alfarid

ELIMINATING SUB SECTIONS

a) Eliminating "Doubtful Runners” ALFARID is eliminated as he is a long way from certain to make the Cut in the race off 7st 10lbs and may not run. PRIVATE BEN is eliminated as he is Irish, has yet to race in England and may not run having been hurdling for a while now. Both can be seen as Unlikely runners .JEWEL OF INDIA (Rated 85) and DIGITAL (Rated 85) are also far from likely to get in this race off 7st 13lbs and may also be out of the handicap. We have not seen horses rated so low win this race since 1995 and as explained before the race has got better since then. Neither horse has won off his Current Handicap mark and both look below the class required. DIGITAL was well beaten in the race last year and is an exposed type and JEWEL OF INDIA is more likely to take up hurdling engagements having moved to Phillip Hobbs. DUMARAN Looks a Doubtful runner as well. He Won a Newbury Handicap off “91" and was raised to "97”. Andrew Baldings classy gelding then went Hurdling and ran his next 4 races over the sticks. The Trainer was recently quoted as saying "His owner, Jeremy Hitchens, is keen for him to go hurdling. I think he'll make a marvellous jumper. We hadn't really thought of him as a potential hurdler until towards the end of the Flat season, Fortunately, he has taken to hurdling very well indeed. He thoroughly enjoys it and could be pretty good. " . There must be every chance they Persevere with a Hurdling Campaign rather than go back to the Flat off a Career High Handicap Mark especially as Balding has multi Options in the race already . Finally Michael Stoute has declared FUNFAIR a Non Runner already.

b) Eliminating Stables with Poor Strike Rates MW Easterby is a trainer that I would be pretty confident about Ignoring based on his long term record under these circumstances. His runner is CATS WHISKERS and this is ruled out as a po-tential winner. I want to eliminate this horse as MW Easterby has such a poor record, a low strike rate and he doesn’t appeal as a Lincoln Winning Trainer. He also has poor statistics with runners at Doncaster and His horses usually need their first races of the season. His Strike rate on his seasonal debutants are 4% and He just does not cut the mustard for me with CATS WHISKERS Especially as the horse has a career high mark in the race .

c) Eliminating Trainers with Poor Records in March ZARIN, SELECTIVE, ISLAND LIGHT and COLISAY can be eliminated from our ever decreasing Shortlist for these reasons. Trainers are Creatures of Habit. They have set routines that work for them and they tend to Follow these routines each year and it will help us Reduce our shortlist by taking notice of these routines. I Want to Ignore the runners from the following stables.

Alec Stewart, Michael Stoute and Joe Naughton I am eliminating SELECTIVE, ISLAND LIGHT and COLISAY From Alec Stewarts Stable .The last thing you want is to bet a Non Runner if you are playing in the ante post markets. That’s why I want to Eliminate Alec Stewarts Runners. This is because Alec Stewart rarely gets winners until at least April and May .He simply does not have runners in March as he takes things easy with his stable string and they are Far from wound up so early in a season, and his runners can be seen to be either of the following.

a) Potential non runners b) Attempting to defy strong stable trends, or...

c) Unlikely to be at their best so early in the season. Look at Alec Stewart’s record early on in each season since 1998 and it will be clear.

ALEC STEWARTS EARLY STRIKE RATE Month Winners Runners March 0 0 April 8 31 May 16 93 June 16 95 You can see that Alec Stewart has not had any horse ready to race by Doncaster or March. He simply takes longer than most to “warm up “ and although its fair to say that this does not dis-prove his ability to target one horse at the race , I also feel that Stewarts runner often need their first race and he does not ask then to do too much too early . His main runner appears to be SE-LECTIVE. This is a likeable sort but first time out horses from this yard don’t run well and despite the evidence to the contrary , SELECTIVE Will be a soft ground horse possibly racing on faster ground than ideal . Michael Stoute is One of the Most Brilliant Trainers in the game, but Stoute has never won the Lincoln, as it comes too early for him to be bothered with .Look at Stoute’s record in March, April and May in the Following table going back since 1998. This is why AKSHAR has to be eliminated from the Possible winners list.

MICHAEL STOUTES EARLY STRIKE RATE Month Winners Runners March 0 0 April 21 126 May 75 308 June 79 337 Stoute has NEVER had a runner in March in the last 5 years. (He did have one on sand which lost a few years ago) and this is because his stable routine is geared to getting his string to peak in Late April and Early May to coincide with the Big Newmarket fixtures.

Joe Naughton has just started training again after a long absence and he trains ZARIN Who I am eliminating. Its not because he is a poor trainer, but because Naughton and ZARIN Have too much against them. Naughton has a very poor record with horses after an absence so its safe to assume that the horse is not certain to be fully wound up. ZARIN Since then has changed train-ers twice making it 4 trainers to have trained this horse within about 10 races and Joe Naughton is the Latest. ZARIN Must also have soft ground which he may not get on the fastest drying course in England.

d) Eliminating FORM + PROFILE Horses Finally I want to whip out horses that I don’t fancy to win the race from the remaining runners. OAKLEY RAMBO from Richard Hannons stable does not make much appeal to me. He has been out of form in recent starts, which is not a good factor to take into the race and nothing he has done recently when racing on sand at Lingfield suggests he is a Lincoln winner and he races off a career high handicap mark. SALUTE is another "rejected”. I Don’t think this is a Miler, He needs 10 furlongs and James Eustace has said as much several times last year. He won as a ju-venile at a mile and his campaign last year was geared up to 10 furlong handicaps. He is also on a stiff handicap mark following a couple of decent placed efforts.

STAGE F

THE PENULTIMATE SHORTLIST

Pablo B Hills 97 Broadway Score John Hills 97

Sahaat J Osborne 95 Atlantic Ace Bryan Smart 94 Diamond Max P D Evans 93

Passing Glance A Balding 93 Nashaab R Beckett 92

Certain Justice Paul Cole 90 Adiemus Jeremy Noseda 89 Golden Chalice A Balding 89

Internationalguest G Magnusson 89 Finished Article D Ellsworth 89 Highland Reel D Ellsworth 86

We now have 13 runners left in our Analysis from the original list. Normally it would get Harder now to reject horses, but the Strength of some of the above, make the rejection of the rest easier. Its Time to say Goodbye to a few of them and I have rejected the Following horses with Reasons given below.

SAHAAT. ATLANTIC ACE. NASHAAB. DIAMOND MAX.

FINISHED ARTICLE. INTERNATIONALGUEST.CERTAIN JUSTICE PABLO

The 8 Rejections SAHAAT has to be a confident rejection from the remaining short listed runners. It is very hard to see this horse being well handicapped off “95 “. We can only assume that as his form is mainly in France in small fields in soft ground. Champion All Weather owner Paul Dixon bought this for an undisclosed sum from John Hammond in France with a view to winning some nice prizes this year but off “95” it may be asking too much to win this. Sahaat has yet to win a handicap , he has yet to face a field of over 13 runners and the 3 biggest fields he has faced have all resulted in him being unplaced . He ran his first race in England at Lingfield. He was easily beaten by ADIEMUS

that day and that horse is 11lbs better off in the Lincoln and its very hard to see him coping. Last time he ran well at Wolverhampton when 2nd, but again that was a slow field, conditions race and there is nothing in his make up to suggest he will cope with this sort of task. Sahaat Made the “Final 13 “but he is now confidently rejected.

ATLANTIC ACE has made the Final list of 13 horses but is now rejected and Eliminated from that List off a Handicap mark of “94 “. The reasons are mainly circumstantial but they are solid. Firstly a Career High Handicap mark 5lbs higher than his best ever mark. Secondly although he is versatile with his Going requirements, he is a better horse in the summer on fast ground and that is why he was targeted last year to peak in the summer. We didn’t see him until June where he won at Goodwood and that track appears to be his ideal racing track as he loves the undula-tions. He wont get the same feeling at Doncaster. Another factor against him is the style of run-ning he has. He is a hold up runner and a horse that is a tactical nightmare, in that he likes to find trouble around tight corners and come very late and there must be a doubt that a wide straight mile just does not suit him .He is certain to have bigger and better targets in mind Later in the year and this simply does not look his type of race and it comes as no surprise that he was well beaten in the race last year off an 11lb lower weight than he will be racing from this year. He is also quite more exposed than a lot of the runners and there may not be much im-provement left in him if any at all. He is eliminated at the penultimate stage.

NASHAAB is confidently rejected from the list of 13. This horse is basically a very hard horse to win with. He needs cover and to be in a pack of horses and then get all the luck in running, and even when he does get the run of the race he still does not seem to win. The Last time he did win was 19 months ago off a rating of “76 “. Since then a very frustrating portfolio sees form figures of 02003304626844376240. However he hasn’t come down the weights, he’s risen to “92”. He is very exposed now as a 6 year old and I think he needs too much to go his way to be seriously considered here. DIAMOND MAX is a further rejection from the Final 13 runners. One of his problems is that he simply must have Soft ground and it would be a waste of time running him on fast ground. He is also a horse that has shown signs of deterioration. It has now been 17 months since he last won a race. He was badly handicapped. He did win off “84” and then won a listed race in France which prompted the handicapper to put him up to a Draconian rating of 100. This is why his trainer has kept him to Hurdles and conditions races without any luck .He has dropped back down to “93” , but that is still 9lbs higher than his best previous handicap win and he is exposed, and looking like regressing rather than progressing .He fails in his final challenge to make the last shortlist. FINISHED ARTICLE is another David Elsworth runner. He looks harshly handicapped off “89” and this is due to his being placed 10 times in decent handicaps in the last 18 months and shifting up the weights. He has won a 0-80 and a 0-85 but there are doubts about the style of race he runs and the class of opposition. Its clear to see that he has not won in Class B Com-pany. He has tried 6 times and has been unplaced 5 times and placed once in a race where the leaders went off too fast and set the race up for the hold up horses. That in essence, is his other problem. He has to be held up, waited with and come late and he is simply too complicated a horse, to exposed a horse and too unproven a horse in this class to rely on. He will always win races, but perhaps not this race and he is another eliminated from the list. INTERNATIONALGUEST is a soft ground horse. He has won 2 handicaps last October off “78” and “83” and he is being asked to defy a Career high mark of “89” in the Lincoln. Trainer George Margarson has nominated this race as the aim some time ago stating “I am contemplating whether to give the four-year-old an outing before Doncaster.” It depends on the horse - he would

probably run better with a previous outing," he said.” I may take him for racecourse gallops rather than a race because there aren't many races suitable for him as he's really a soft-ground horse. He's been kept on the go since November and is very well in himself. “Personally whilst confident that fast ground renders him a no hoper, I also feel he will be outclassed in the Lincoln. They were talking last Autumn in terms of the horse now being badly handicapped and being forced into conditions races. He goes up in weight, Seriously up in class, and unless it was a quagmire I would say he lacked the Class to win. PABLO is regrettably on the list of Final Rejections. When he won at Newmarket in November he had “Lincoln” written all over him. The Racing Post commented that “PABLO was able to land a sizeable gamble in ground conditions that were ideal for him. He was settled just off the pace but came through strongly under Michael Hills to lead over a furlong out and galloped all the way to the line”. That was a decent run and came after a previous win off a Handicap rating of “83 “ ear-lier in the year at Sandown on soft ground. With PABLO, You could probably forgive him the fact he races off a Career high handicap mark today of “97”. What you can not forgive him for, would be drying fast ground as this appears to be essential to his chance. He has flopped on fast ground before and it needs mentioning that Doncaster is the fastest drying track in the country and that Fast ground is a serious possibility. It Has to be Soft to give him a chance and as he is a short price and uncertain to run he is rejected. CERTAIN JUSTICE scraped into the Final list of 13 as he was the Paul Cole runner. On the negative side is a serious stamina doubt and that’s why I now reject him. Being from Cole’s sta-ble, he was always going to be underpriced in ante post betting lists and at 121 he is not value for me. He was a very good juvenile when unbeaten, but that left him very badly handicapped off “105”. It took him 27 months to win again, and that was only after he had dropped to a rating of “82 “. That race at Newmarket was at 7 furlongs on his ideal soft ground; He was raised to “88” and lost his next 2 races, the last being behind PABLO in the November race that provides the strongest form for this race with Passing Glance, Nashaab, and Highland Reel all in attendance. Certain Justice “just” stayed the mile that day but was beaten buy a genuine miler and although 8lbs better off with Pablo for a 2.5 length beating it wont be easy to reverse the form at 8 furlongs in a cavalry charge like the Lincoln. Paul Cole has always doubted his ability to race at a mile. He said last April that “6 furlongs could be his best trip “.The horse has also had setbacks in his time and does need soft ground to be at his best , and that wont help with stamina. I Just think He wont get the trip, so I am happy to pass him up.

STAGE G

THE WINNER AND REASONS

We are Down To 5 Runners as Potential Winners.

GOLDEN CHALICE 20/1 ADIEMUS 8/1

BROADWAY SCORE 40/1 HIGHLAND REEL 33/1

PASSING GLANCE 33/1

GOLDEN CHALICE GOLDEN CHALICE is the Dark horse of the race and the horse that will win the Lincoln if the Ground turns up soft. This horse, (assuming soft ground) will be my strongest bet Ever in the race .This is a VERY Good horse, and his recent homework has been of the highest order ac-cording to information I have received. The Big Problem is that the horse wont run if the Ground is on the Fast side. This horse nearly won on his Nottingham 3 year old debut at 10/1 but ran green and met a good horse who later in the year was rated 98. He then hated fast ground at Ripon when 2nd again on his next start and on his 3rd racecourse start at Windsor ran into a Mi-chael Stoute hotpot that spent the rest of the year in listed class. In fact the 3rd that day won a listed race shortly afterwards and multiple winners were behind. Up to then he had been unlucky not to have won his maiden and was given a handicap mark of 79. He went straight into handicap company and ran second again. There was nothing ungenuine about him. The winner is a highly rated handicapper and the ground was again too fast for him. He Finally won his maiden by 5 lengths at Goodwood (value for 10 lengths) from a horse that won next time. His next start was on Firm ground which did not suit in a 0-90 handicap and his final start was a devastating win in a 0-83 handicap by 4 lengths landing a gamble. Racereaders that day from the Post commented that “GOLDEN CHALICE was well backed and left a disappointing effort at Goodwood well be-hind with a thoroughly convincing display from the front. Explaining the improvement in form, Emma Balding said: "The ground is the key. He was very disappointing at Goodwood but the ground was much firmer than we realised and he hated it. Willie [Ryan] said he could hold his own in better company under the right conditions. "Timeform were equally impressed saying he looked a “useful horse in the making that would be of interest even from a much higher mark “. We never saw GOLDEN CHALICE again last year. Andrew Balding recently stated that he sus-tained a Pelvic injury and missed the autumn. He also said he would win a lot more races. Re-ports of his homework this year have been passed on to me by a generous source. He has been working with a reliable gallop companion rated 103 and working all over him pulling clear in his work. His rating of “89” is nothing like his true ability on soft ground and granted that surface, will be the winner of the Lincoln.

HIGHLAND REEL

HIGHLAND REEL Was runner up in the 2001 Lincoln to Nimello and missed the race last year through a bacterial infection and I just wonder if he has not missed his chance. I Don’t think he is exactly thrown in as he has not won since he won a maiden as a 3 year old in early 2000.After that maiden, he was rated 92 at peak (the rating he had in Nimello’s lincoln in 2001. He has since failed to win a race, and yet he has only been dropped 6lbs. This was not from winning in handicap company, he has never done that Before, and he has paid the price for the occasional placed effort in high class handicaps. He is very inconsistent, He will need soft ground, and he will need to run his best race in some time to win the race. When he came 2nd in 2001he was an unexposed 4 year old and now he just smells like a horse whose potential has not been reached. He does go well fresh though and is a lively outsider at 33/1 if its soft and he is well drawn. On Soft Ground in Spring when Fresh he will run above his price and could surprise many here.

ADIEMUS

ADIEMUS is the Big Gun of the race Lets face it, He is the Machine that won the All Weather Derby before coming runner up in this race last year off “83” and he is currently in preparation for the same two races now. He attempts to defend his Sand crown in a week’s time and then its Doncaster off a 6lbs higher mark .The Bottom line with this horse is this. Whether you like his price of 8/1 or not, it is actually value and he Has to be involved in the staking plan. If ADIEMUS

Wins this race then you should NOT Lose any money and he is a certainty for the staking plan. He has only ran twice since last years Lincoln. This was due to a setback last summer that was not serious. This horse was favourite for the Lincoln before and after the weights, and his 2 sand “warm-up” races for the All Weather Derby were both high quality and from a horse that is Far from at Peak. Only 2 races matter to this horse and he is about to run in both. Ideally it is best to play Ante Post when a horse has no further races to take in before the race, as so much can change during a race and the preparation of one. However even defeat in the All Weather Derby would not concern me especially with Lingfield so open at the moment. On Sand the horse is rated 104 yet on Grass he is rated only a mere 89. He may be a better sand horse but there is no way he is 15lbs inferior on Grass and he is a very well handicapped horse that loves the race , nearly won it last year and off a 6lbs higher mark is still very well handicapped. Don’t forget the public gamble last year. He was punted down to 5/2 favourite and even before the race there were doubts about his participation as he was in danger of missing the cut. This year the 7/1 and 8/1 is begging to be taken because he is a Very Good Favourite that has the class , acts on any ground and who has been laid out for the race . If He wins you must be in a position where by you can not lose.

BROADWAY SCORE

BROADWAY SCORE is my Idea of the Winner and the Best Value In the race if the ground rides on the Fast side. All 3 of his Career wins have come when the ground rode fast and that’s im-perative. He has been as big a price as 50/1 this week with plenty of 40/1 and 33/1 available and that’s a massive price for a horse that is the right age and is proven on all the main statistical re-quirements and a horse that is certain to run in the race and what is more a horse that has al-ways been at his best when “Fresh “. As a 3 year old Broadway Score Won on his maiden but also suffered an injury which restricted his number of races to 2.First time out as a 4 year old last April He won a Classy looking 0-87 off “85”. His connections commented after the race that “He injured himself on the gallops as a 3 year old but he's grown up and we're hoping he'll be a really nice horse to go to war with this year." Broadway Score then went to Newmarket over 10 fur-longs but the race came too quickly for a horse that wants time between his races. Next Stop was Sandown and a very decent Runner up in a Class B 0-101 handicap which put him spot on for the Royal Hunt Cup at Ascot off “92 “. He finished mid pack that day after being badly hampered. He then won at Windsor making the most of the summer fast ground and John Hills stated after the race that “He could be a better horse fresh at around a mile”. He ran a couple more times af-ter that abroad and we did not see him until he had a spin at Lingfield in December when ham-pered. He does have a Career high handicap mark today, but he’s a late developer, a Front run-ner which always helps in this race and his form is underrated by many and if he gets his vital Fast Ground, he could lad them a merry dance under perfect conditions of being Fresh .On Fast Ground He will very nearly win the Lincoln and at 33/1+ he is huge value. Read Some recent Press Cuttings from John Hills and you will begin to fancy him at his price. Hills stated recently that "Broadway Score is on schedule for the Lincoln and I'm happy with him - he looks a picture and he's slowly building up in his work. I would imagine he'll go straight for the race rather than have prep - I might take him for a gallop around Lingfield. I think he's a horse who is a worthy candidate for the Lincoln. He's a horse who runs good races when he's had a break. He won first time out last year and we can probably have him near spot on first time out although, if it was very heavy, it might find him out."

PASSING GLANCE

PASSING GLANCE is trained by a very shrewd operator in Andrew Balding and deserves full re-spect I Can see him pinching a Place at big odds as long as the Ground remains on the Fast Side of Good .He's a half-brother to Kingsclere and was described as the stables best 3 year old last year . This horse is best on fast ground and is a Front runner. He is also game and consistent and always tries his heart out .If You look at his form, it shows wins at 6f, 8f and 9f yet the stable are confident that he doesn’t truly stay a mile on soft ground and that 7f is his best trip .That is the main reason why he Only scrapes into my 1, 2, 3 on Fast Ground as there are a lack of fast ground alternatives. I just feel that a front runner on a stamina sapping track will be too much for him if it rode Soft. I Have to address the fact that his wins at 8 and 9 furlongs “On paper” at least suggest stamina aplenty .When he won at 9 furlongs it was a strange race on a strange track. Goodwood wouldn’t be the stiffest track in the world and Passing Glance was able to dictate terms as other horses met trouble behind, and he was out on his feet inside the final furlong .Doncaster on a wide track and possibly dead ground wont suit a front runner so well. When he won at a mile at Newmarket, the ground was very firm, it was a small field and he got away from them. He has been flattered to win at 8 and 9 furlongs and the key for me comes from Martin Dwyer who rode him over a mile at Doncaster In September. Dwyer got off the horse and stated “I was cruising a furlong out but he did not get home and I ran out of petrol. I have told the trainer that he’s best at 7 furlongs “ Much as I Love his stable and respect the horse, unless it rode lightening fast and he got first run and a head start I would expect his stamina to fail. However He can get the Trip on fast ground and he is talented enough to frame should it ride fast.

THE CONCLUSION So there we have it .A Very long road to get here and now it is time to make the Decision from the 5 horses we have left. I Have already told you that You must be aware of the Draw and the Ground before you can be very confident, but as things stand I cant know what they will be. Therefore I am Concluding the Race with 2 Possible scenarios. The First will be my 1,2,3 on Fast Ground and Should the Ground be on the soft side I have also produced my best 3 selections as well . Personally I will only be betting my Main Selection and My Danger from the nominated 1st 2nd and 3rd. The Winner of the Lincoln on Fast ground will be Broadway Score or Adiemus The Winner of the Lincoln on Soft ground will be Golden Chalice or Adiemus

FINAL LINCOLN SELECTIONS ON GOOD OR FAST GROUND 1) BROADWAY SCORE JOHN HILLS 40/1 2) ADIEMUS JEREMY NOSEDA 8/1 3) PASSING GLANCE ANDREW BALDING 33/1 NB If any selection is badly drawn (see stats) then Feel Free to Revise the 1,2,3 FINAL LINCOLN SELECTIONS ON GOOD TO SOFT OR WORSE GROUND 1) GOLDEN CHALICE ANDREW BALDING 16/1 2) ADIEMUS JEREMY NOSEDA 8/1 3) HIGHLAND REEL DAVID ELSWORTH 33/1 NB If any selection is badly drawn (see stats) then Feel Free to Revise the 1,2,3

ON THE NEWMARKET GALLOPS We approached a well connected Newmarket Work watcher who lives in Newmarket and Spends several mornings at the Crack of dawn watching horses Gallop. We commissioned him to produce a list of horses to follow this Flat season that had wintered really well and whose connections were confident would pay their way in the next few months. These are his unedited thoughts and we hope you enjoy them. The Gallop Watcher has asked to be kept anonymous and we are respecting that wish.

Waldmark M Stoute Piano Star M Stoute Xema H Cecil La Scala H Cecil Act of Duty D Loder Saponi W. Haggas Dubrosky J.Fanshawe Ice Palace J Fanshawe Selkirk Grace E Dunlop Urowells E Dunlop Foretold J Noseda Lodger J Noseda As usual, Newmarket finds itself top-heavy with untapped talent as spring approaches. Following a dry February, local trainers have been able to utilise the preferred grass facilities on which to prepare their steeds, many of which will see the racecourse for the first time at Craven meeting here in April. Having been Champion trainer in 2001 and runner up again last year, Sir Michael Stoute is never short in the three year old department and looks to have a strong hand in the 1000 Guineas this time around, a race that has eluded him since Musical Bliss obliged in 1989.Although his Group 2 winner Russian Rhythm, who has wintered well, has a favourite's chance, don’t be surprised if her less exposed stablemate WALDMARK emerges as a live outsider in the run up to May 4th. Narrow winner of a Kempton maiden on her only start, the daughter of Mark of Esteem looks to have done particularly well over the winter months and looks well worth a tickle at around 33-1 at time of writing. She is sure to get a Mile. Stable jockey Kieran Fallon, who has already sat on Waldmark this winter, has also got familiar with the unraced PIANO STAR, a colt by Darshaan. Owned by Khalid Abdulla, PIANO STAR was held in some regard at Freemason Lodge last summer but failed to make the racecourse af-ter a few minor niggles. He could be worth keeping an eye on when he finally sees the light of day in something like the Museum Maiden Stakes here next month. He holds an Entry in the Derby.

Henry Cecil may be a light of former years in the numbers game but still has Abdullah’s patron-age and has bold plans to enter a couple of his unraced fillies in the 1000 Guineas. XEMA, a daughter of Danehill has showed plenty of toe in her prep work on Warren Hill since Christmas and could debut in the seven furlong fillies’ maiden at the Craven. Bred to stay further is Henry Cecil’s LA SCALA, a near black daughter of Theatrical, with whom stable jockey Rich-ard Quinn has struck up a notable association in recent weeks. Down the hill at Godolphin Stables, David Loder is preparing for his final turf season at the head of the juvenile arm of the Dubai based organisation. Given some three-year olds to keep him busy in the meantime, Loder has made an impact on the all-weather of late but is waiting to unleash the likes of ACT OF DUTY until the turf gets into full swing. An untried son of the now deceased Mr Prospector, ACT OF DUTY will do well to justify his $3.6M price tag but has shaped well enough at home to make his presence felt in the premier league come summer. William Haggas has been another local in fine form on the sand of late but plans to keep his re-cent impressive Southwell winner SAPONI under wraps until the turf gets underway. Easy winner over a mile that day Haggas has a handicap at Pontefract on April 8th in mind as a first stop for his progressive four-year old. Soft ground will hold no fears. James Fanshawe should be in for a big year in 2003 after a significant increase in numbers over the close season and stable star Soviet Song currently looking cherry ripe for the 1000 Guineas. Indeed the "skeleton”, as he is known locally, has had to lease another yard to accommodate an expanded team of nearly 120 of which DUBROVSKY warrants a particular mention. Already a winner, this flashy chestnut was put away after easily landing his maiden at Warwick last summer and is tipped to reap the benefit in handicaps this spring. Stablemate ICE PALACE has yet to dispense with her maiden tag but is expected to make up into a decent miler this summer, a trip her prolific half-sister Palatial never got. She would not be as Precocious as her relative but She is a lovely mover and will win races. Across town, Ed Dunlop is eager to make amends for a modest season in 2002, a bleak year that has left a legacy of underexposed types at Gainsborough Stables for the new term. Amongst those in the latter category is SELKIRK GRACE, an encouraging third in a mile maiden at HQ at the backend, who may yet give his owner Sir Alex Ferguson something to cheer if Manchester United fails to land a trophy this season. Equally promising is UROWELLS, a Saddlers Wells colt who still holds the Derby engagement, who showed plenty at home last summer and is expected to step up considerably on his sixth at Ascot last July. As usual, Jeremy Noseda is set to hit the turf running in late March on the back of another suc-cessful spell on the all-weather in recent weeks. Amongst the grass squad waiting to return early doors is FORETOLD, a scopey son of Darshaan, who wasn't beaten far when last of four in a de-cent York maiden last October. Put away after that effort, FORETOLD has progressed physically through the break and could do some damage over ten furlongs plus this year. From a similar mould is LODGER, a son of Grand Lodge, who may need an even stiffer test if he is to confirm the promise of his sole start in a Newmarket maiden at the backend.

TIPSTER REVIEW It’s time now to review a New Racing Service that is starting and joining the large number of tip-ping services out there. In past Magazines I have reviewed a number of services and put them under the spotlight, and I intend to do the same in future editions. There is not a genuine Monitor-ing Service in the industry that can cast a wide net and assess a large number of services and Proof them for potential clients and there is a massive vacuum. Whether it will ever become fi-nancially viable for an independent individual to do this, and take on the hard work that it involves is doubtful but the current state of play where services proof to the racing post who are depend-ant on advertising revenue, and websites connected to tipsters with a vested interest in furthering their sales is a long way from ideal and fair to the customer.

SPRINTKING

Sprinting is a new style of racing service. They certainly interest me as I am drawn to numbers and a mathematical approach and I think they are well worth a serious review. What I did not want to do, is follow the Tried and Tested method that leaves readers unsure if they have been spammed and duped, or whether they are seeing a great opportunity before their very eyes . Therefore, I will conduct the Review in a new and fresh manner and demand that the service proves them at least some of the way by analysing a race in advance, rather than Claim Past successes.

The review of SPRINTKING consists of 2 parts Part 1 will see Sprintking state their case, what they do and why, describe their service in their own words and try and make a case for you joining. Part 2 will be a Q+A Session where I shall ask them some Questions and Answers And try and fill in any gaps.

SPRINTKING in Their Own Words

“Sprinters Take It In Turns Don’t They”?

How many times have you heard a so-called expert say that? f you agree with the above state-ment then you should carry on following the flock of punters who miss out on BIG opportunities for profit every year. If, however, like me you believe that there is an answer, then SPRINTKING might be the Service for you. SPRINTKING will guide you through the maze of imponderables that Sprints present. Class pre-vails in all walks of life and Racing is no different. All horses have a Class level that they can compete and win in: knowing this is the key to CONSISTENT Winning. SPRINTKING will pinpoint the horses that will and won’t be winning. Many of you reading this may use speed figures when rating a horse’s performance. I believe they have their uses, but on their own, have had their day. What most punters ignore and what I feel to be the most crucial aspect of Past form is the CLASS OF RACE the figure was earnt in.

SPRINTKING’S CLASS RATINGS

Offer you a completely NEW understanding of a horse’s form cycle. Instead of letters indicating the level of past races, I use a UNIQUE NUMERICAL FORM OF RATING combined with a com-

plete knowledge of track and draw bias. Sceptics will no doubt say “Prove it “ I could give you many examples of winning bets from last season, but why should you believe me? Other tipsters have promised big profits with glossy mail shots but have failed to deliver on customer service and results. Take advantage of the FREE TRIAL PERIOD with SPRINTKING and see for yourself. You won’t be disappointed.

Rob @ SPRINTKING ‘Where class figures’

sprintking@tims01.freeserve.co.uk

PART 2 Questions and Answers Q Do you arrive at your selections through any form of “ratings “? A Yes, We use our individual class ratings combined with detailed analysis of the draw and any other factors that we feel are relevant Q Explain what you mean about form being crucial only to the “Class of Race” the figure was earned in A It’s simple really. As an example, we Rate the Class of Every Race with a specific Rating. If a horse comes 2nd in a race, that we have awarded a Race value of 168 to, and then races in a Race that we have given a Rating of 182 , you would not expect the horse to run the same race. As a horse Progresses to a higher level of sprinting more tactical speed is needed and the same applies to horses racing in races that we have awarded Lower class ratings to. A horse with good tactical speed at a lower level is always worth considering and very often they produce excellent value bets Q Why should anyone subscribe to your service? A That is the big question isn’t it? That is why there is a Free Trial period so you People can judge for themselves. The service offers a complete and comprehensive days Analy-sis including full back up via e-mail. Q Why is your service any different from the Many in the market place? A We do our homework. Hours are spent studying and watching videos and rating past Races and going back and adjusting races to ensure our figures are as accurate as possible. We be-lieve in the power and reliability of our Class ratings and we believe that they will set Sprintking apart from any other Service. Q What criteria does a Bet have to meet before you advise it to clients? A There are no specific rules that are cast in stone. We do normally like to satisfy 4 criteria be-fore we advise a Bet. On our Class Ratings we are looking for a drop in class of at least 10 points from the horse’s previous race. We also insist on a positive draw. Ideally good previous Form at the track in question always attracts our attention. Value also comes into the argument

Q Why do you say that Speed Figures have had their day? A We didn’t. What we said was that ‘on their own’ speed horses have had their day and should never be used as an isolated tool. More often than not Speed Horses always attract the saturated money .We prefer to go against the crowd and bet the Class horses. Naturally sometimes the horse in question is both the Speed and class horse. Q What type of Gambler would be best suited to Sprintking. Would it suit the Novice punter or the more Skilled and experienced punter? A We feel the service should suit anyone interested in profit Q If You have a method that delivers big profits, why don’t you just bet the selections yourself and retire in luxury? A Speaking for myself, I have always wanted to earn money from something I enjoy doing and most people are the same .I enjoy the study and its challenges. Q Why hasn’t your method been discovered before bearing in mind the millions of sys-tems and gamblers out there? A Were they not saying that when Speed Figures were first used as a betting tool? It has taken us years to develop our methods and fine tune them and most people just want get rich schemes. Q You have agreed to offer a Free Trial. Where can people test your service? A Interested parties just need to send an e-mail to sprintking@tims01.freeserve and put Free subscription as the subject heading.

‘1995 To 1998’ A Personal Pilgrimage Through The World Of The Racing Tipster By Maths If you read the many internet forums you get a feeling that HALF The Racing fraternity Loves tip-sters and cant function without them and the Other Half considers them one step down on the ladder from a Pimp. Whilst being a Tipster, not an occupation I enjoy at all, I have been asked hundreds of questions over the years about my service, other services, and my thoughts on what people should do. I Thought I would expose myself here by writing an article of my own experi-ences with Tipsters and the Very Long Journey I’ve taken. I Hope you enjoy it, it’s my experi-ences and many of them may also be yours. I have subscribed to, or hard access to the lot in my day. Subscriptions services, letter bets , re-lays , premium rate lines, odds to services, consultants , pay as you win , the Good, the Bad and the Very Ugly , and I will take you back to my First Tipster , back in 1985, and still going today .That was MARTEN JULIAN. I first Met Martin at Leicester races and was talking to him about his Dad who I remember was a Vicar, and found him a genuine and nice man. He had 5 Premium rate lines in those days and I was a frequent caller. George Mason the old Newmarket Gallop Watcher had one of the lines, and in the days where Premium rate lines were reasonable I loved the MARTEN JULIAN service. In the Mid 1980,s his speciality was Guy Harwood’s stable which housed Cacoethes, Dancing Brave, Ella Aristokrati, Warning and some marvellous horses. You could completely rely on Julian then to mark your card about Harwood’s horses. I was still Green as Grass and had no concept of value. He gave me an unraced Harwood 2 year old called Robak and told me it was a “machine “. That was the First time I had heard that adjective for a horse and It has stuck with me ever since and I associate it with Julian. Robak won at 4/9 on its Chester de-but, but in those days I was easily impressed. I also remember Him telling me a horse in the Cra-ven that could not win, as it had been working like a “Stuffed Pigeon “. Watching the Horse flop in the race was fascinating to me as the horse did actually race like it was a stuffed Pigeon and it had a huge, fat, unfit carriage and I knew then that he could only have known that through di-rectly seeing the horse work. In My Current service, I call my strongest investments “Best Bets of the Day“. MARTEN JULIAN called his bets the same. It is no coincidence. The “Bearded Scribe “as we used to call him taught me a lot. He was genuine and honest and I have nothing bad to say about him. Over the years I feel he is not as effective as he once was, and I would not sub-scribe now, but he runs a Classy publishing service from Kendall and I always buy his Chelten-ham and Ascot Bulletin Books, Give him my best wishes and reminisce fondly. Shortly after that I was doing the “Relay “circuits and getting the bets of about 30 services every day and scrawling them down on my newspaper and I went through the laborious task of monitor-ing them, recording results, finding where certain services ticked and where others failed .I See many people do the same things now and I feel like telling them they are wasting their time. My Research did not lead me to significant discovery, but I was lucky in so far as my Telephone Calls in those days were heavily subsidised and it was not costing me a lot. I Cringe now at the excitement I used to get from a” 5 Star “bet from Darren Crofts TOP HORSE who was a benefactor of my telephone calls as was all the other Newstel services like DON ARMSTRONG , ALEX GORRIE , RAY GOLDSTEIN and the rest of them .DON ARMSTRONG could go 12 months without a winner and then make such a huge profit on one day that you could wipe out all losses and still have profit to spare .You needed a rather large bank though and if you were busy on that “good “ day then it would have been tempting to commit suicide. ALEX GORRIE was another I hated as I couldn’t understand a word he said and everytime he said he had some “Anside Anfarmation” I just laughed. I was working as a clerk in the betting ring at New-market’s July Course when he landed his BIG STING years ago. Gorrie had 3 horses running that day. A French raider that won at 100/30, another winner and his own horse (May have been

Durham) which was 7/1 with Chandlers in the morning and won at 7/4 at a night meeting. The Coup was legendary in its day And a bookmaker told me the horses after the first two won , but I did not bet the last leg .He has not reached those pinnacles again since. Gorrie remains a bril-liant marketer but just a poor tipster in my opinion. I know a trainer that he had a horse with and he told me that he rarely ever rung the stable to enquire about the horse and he never once tried to get information about other stable runners. Whatever he does, he is still there with full page ads and whilst the Butt of many jokes over the years, he is at least still about. I never rated the Newstel services and my experiences with them were brief and unmemorable. I moved on from the above services to THE RACING TELEGRAPH in the Late 1980,s. My God, it is a good job that my Telephone Bills were heavily subsidised at the time or bankruptcy would have loomed large .The RACING TELEGRAPH are still going strong advertising on Ceefax on Channel 4 and they brought you Long messages form Newmarket that almost made you wet yourself in anticipation . CLIFF WOOF ran the service. He was famous for riding SHERGAR in his Gallops At home I remember. I have done Sales jobs in the past, and I have friends in Sales but to this day I have never heard a sales pitch Like Cliff and Michael at the Racing Telegraph. On the Positive side of my experiences of the service, they gave me some superb winners at Big Prices. If any of you remember the old “Maximum Bets “from THE RACING TELEGRAPH you may remember the confidence you felt from superb prices and long winning runs. At the time I did “feel “ as if they were at the centre of Newmarket .The Liverpudlian Accent at the start of the mes-sage and the excitement involved as they kept you on baited breath to wait for “The Maximum “ was electric. The Problems were the Long Messages and the Cost of the Calls and naturally the Maximum bets were always the LAST Bet you heard once the phone had been totting up several minutes. Brilliant Marketers but shameless in their attitude to the Dialogue and Message and Very often the Clichés would pad the message out several minutes .When you rang, the First thing you heard was “This is , the Racing Telegraph, and I can tell you that … … … ” . The tone of voice, the scripting was very addictive and it took me far longer than it should have to Ditch them. I Could not cope with 9 bets a day though and I finally decided to Drop them after feeling that EVERY Bet was so strong, so pumped up, so well spun to me, so brilliantly marketed and ex-plained that I could not associate anymore between the Strongest bet or the weakest. Even the less fancied Tips were sold to me like certainties, and I just could not understand what to bet, when to bet and how to stop calling. Cliff Woof could sell Peace in Palestine. The Ceefax ad-verts were pages long as well, winner after winner advertised with all the old classics such as “this cant get beat “etc. I know they fell foul of the advertising standards agency once. I would not recommend the service with my hand on my heart to anyone, but they did give me some fabulous winners in their day (about 15 years ago) and I look back at them very much as a learning experi-ence. Once you had taken their best sales pitch and survived, you felt that you could deal with any salesman in the future. They still tip now. I did think about subscribing to the old private ser-vice donkeys years ago, but I could not afford it at the time. They have their place in the Tipsters Hall of Fame and I remember them far more fondly than I ought to do, or that my Phone Bill sug-gested I should. I was still doing the Relays. They became less relevant as I went along but I always kept my hand in with them and use them even now on occasions if I need to monitor anything in particular or find out the origins of a gamble. I did them all in turn. KEITH NICHOLSON, SUREWIN, but I had my problems there and settled with RELAYRACING and JC RACING because they were nicer people and more genuine. MARK HOLDER was never a service I used outside the Relay lines. I remember him as reason-able and I could understand his methodology quite easily. He at least did have a methodology rather than the services who just claimed inside information with no proof that it was true. I Thought Mark batted pretty straight and gave a reasonable service but also felt his bets were based upon artificial concepts like Price, and wondered how solid the foundations were with him.

Some describe him as an intelligent service and from my recollection of him years ago I would not argue with that without knowing whether he ever turned a profit. I did once “accidentally” come across MARK HOLDER’ PRIVATE COUP LINE .I supposes I can’t grumble as I had not paid a fee and it was certainly interesting. I bet someone reading this remembers this gamble. There may have been others. The One I remember was a horse called something like Miss Pop-pycock, or Miss Poppleton or a similar name. I wish I could remember. What I do recall is that Holders father in law Richard trained a horse in the same race, and the temptation was to as-sume it was that horse before you rang back at the last minute for the name of the horse!! I Re-member the horse was priced up in the sporting life at something like 20/1 and once then line was updated, (after numerous call backs and false alarms) the horse opened about 12/1. I was in a Stanley Racing shop ready to strike and before I could write out the slip the horse went 8/1, 6/1, 9/2, 3/1 in quick shows as I had never seen before . I had some 8/1 each way which at the time was bitterly disappointing as I was expecting 25/1.I Remember the horse being “off” for its life and trying desperately hard but failing to land the bet for Holder and his clients , and all the Free mon-gers like myself. A Day wasted, and I have had many of those since. I never fancied joining MARK HOLDER but in the great scheme of things there were plenty more days wasted. As an enthusiastic young punter I once paid what seems now an obvious Con , just a few pounds ( I think it was only £5 ) for the right to Listen in to a Private Gamble ran by a service based in Newmarket and connected indirectly to trainer Conrad Allen . Once I Posted the money I had a letter back asking me to ring a premium rate line every day. That was obviously never mentioned beforehand! I fell for it then. I was then the sort of person who would go for a Curry, get served a dead cold dog and still not complain. Every few days I’d ring to get Running plans and All they ever said was “runs next week “ or “were looking for a race soon “ and occasionally they said the horse was entered to run but pulled out on the day. I reassured my naïve mind that at least they were trying to find the right race. The Horse never ran. After about 8 months awaiting this “Life changing 33/1 gamble “There was a message on line saying the Horse had broken down and was dead. I still don’t know to this day if the horse ever existed other than in the twisted imagina-tion of a Scamster. Had I been paying the Phone bills they would have been hundreds of pounds more. I dealt with a Private tipster called Tim Sullivan for a while. His stuff was above average But too many short prices and it was not a money making exercise. He was straight though and that’s half the battle. I Also monitored a service ran by a JOHN MARTYN Called TMR RACING who were an enjoyable service to follow and paid their way for a few months. I never made any money but JOHN MARTYN sounded to a raw amateur at the time as if he knew what he was doing. I Later read on an internet message board that he may have been very good at convincing me, but he cant have been at convincing the judge as He allegedly fell foul of the Tax people . In the Mid 1990’s I was ringing an interesting service from Birmingham Called STAR INFORMA-TION SERVICES run by an Irish guy called PATRICK WOOTON. The service had a main line and an update line which were nothing special at all, but he had a 3rd line on a Non Premium rate number called the TISSUE AND MOVEMENT LINE which high-lighted where all the major money was going early in the morning. What amazed me about that line was that it was on at 9am before most bookmakers were even taking bets in those days and I could not understand where these hot money horses were coming from. I Knew a few came from Ireland and overall I would say that 30% of the market movers were dead ducks, and wrong, at least 70% were well backed and worthy of consideration. A Skilled Arber nowadays would be able to sort the wheat out from the Chaff and make that service pay. I did not learn till years later how He could tell us where hot money went before bookmakers opened. I was told, and I don’t know if this is true or not but he was getting the bets from Ringing on course bookmakers at

home who were sitting over breakfast tables across the midlands laying shrewd “in the know “ punters early prices so that they could get their own cards marked. Rumour had it that One Bir-mingham Bookmaker who I have seen on the Betfair Chat Forum was one of those layers in the past although that is only hearsay. I did enjoy that Tissue Line as in those days I was excited by “inside” information and had yet to come to the discovery I made years later about Primary and Secondary information. Service that I monitored over a 2 year period ran into the hundreds. I did not follow many of the services at all with my own money as I would have needed a bank roll like Chan Canasta. Ser-vices I watched but which never tempted me included SAFE BET, JOE BATES, A1 RACING, JEFF KNIGHT, PAUL JAMES, WORKRIDER, INTERFORM and FINEFORM. They must never have got past my sub conscious and I never felt anything but indifference towards them. I did have mates who were also into the “Tipping “scene in the 1990’s and they fell foul of EDWARD KNIGHT’S service and their experiences left me in doubt that me and Mr Knight should never do business together . I had also managed to get the phone line of the MARY REVELY RACING CLUB and spent 6 months ringing that service every time they had a runner. I don’t know what everyone else expected from a stable line but it did not meet my expectations as you were never told anything you did not know yourself in my opinion and I never made anything out of that , in fact I felt like they were a liability to me personally. Talking of lines run by Trainers, the great COLIN TINKLER’S FULL CIRCLE was the service that everyone had to get years ago. Barmy as a fruitcake was Colin. He was addicted to short priced horses and he had big bets on them all. I can’t believe he won money at the game but his sermons on the phone line were legendary. He pulled some strokes in his time but he was so likeable you could not help liking him. After one maximum bet loser he had the Cheek to update his line with music old song “Don’t Worry, Be Happy” by Bobby Mc Ferrin which is the last thing you wanted to hear after a Maximum bet loser. Tinkler was an enigma. He never won me a bean, I soon learnt that short prices were not for me and I ended up ringing FULL CIRCLE only for Colin Tinkler and his one liners with no interest in the slow horses they owned that eventually got slower and slower. He once claimed he told his racing secretary, a young blonde girl to look on page 682 ceefax for the declarations and find out what was running tomorrow, only for her to come back with names like Paprika, Cumin and Olive Oil. Tinkler, knowing that these were not horses that were declared to run, investigated and found out that she had looked on the wrong Teletext station and copied a Recipe thinking they were horses. Whether that was true or not is not important, it just summed up Tinkler as a joy to listen to, but dangerous to follow with your hard-earned. His last throw of the dice was MONOMORE whom he backed to win a Million pounds in the Grand National. I Remember the horse coming 4th I think many moons ago. I don’t want to get into areas of libel with anyone, so I won’t mention services that I could elabo-rate more on, but suffice to say I had no interest in GARY WOODWARD or MATTHEW THOLE as racing advisors. I did ring DANNY BLOOR a few times but he left me cold and I hated the de-livery and hated the way he constantly said “make no mistake about that “after every sentence. I soon left him alone, make no mistake about that. I was still very much on a learning curve though with Tipsters. Due to the fortunate fact that my telephone calls were almost subsidised I had managed to ring hundreds over a long period of many years and I was soon learning fast. I had not found one yet that I could rely on to make me money, but the crucial lesson was that I was getting closer to finding out that none of them could over a long period of time and that’s very important to learn and only then can you go on the jour-ney of self discovery that ends with you working 10 hours a day picking your own, or simply con-tinuing to lose money. I was not prepared to consider the latter. One thing I loved in the late 1980,s and early 1990.s was the LETTER BETS From people like GERALD SWAIN, MARTIN WELLS, J D BLAKE and ALAN CARFAX. You will have seen the Full page advertisements in the trade press about 2 horses Saturday letters with amazing printed

results going back weeks before them. I was in love with that style of Tipster years ago. I Sub-scribed to Alan Carfax years ago. I think it was 1988 as I remember his spring double included the National winner Rhyme and Reason. What I could not understand was this. His adverts were in the weekly papers most weeks, so I can only assume that the results must have been genuine or else complaints would have followed. His record, on paper was astonishing and even a £10 double on a Saturday would have produced a massive yearly profit. I felt that I had to give CAR-FAX a try, and I sent my subs off. Most 22 year olds as I was then were getting excited by Porn, Drink and Women, but I never felt the same thrills as when the Postman delivered my letter from Carfax on the Friday before the Saturdays 2 horses ran. I Read that letter more times than a United Nations resolution and I felt sure I was privy to the secret inside news that would make me money. We all have different levels of enjoyment with tipsters, but those Letter bets thrilled me more than the French Maids uniforms that were interesting my friends. So did Alan Carfax win me money over my 10 Saturday letter bets? In truth I can’t really remember, but I do recall getting a high level of non runners and there was never a Saturday where both bets won. I joined the others over the next 2 years for further series of 10 letter bets but they did not work out and I did not make a profit. Nowadays when you join the likes of those tipsters, the “Saturday tipsters” It’s not the same. You get a premium rate number to ring on Saturday morning which seemed disappointing and seedy. GERALD SWAINE has just coincidentally written to me this week. He has listed his entire 2002 record of Saturday Doubles. From the 34 Saturdays in the March-November season I notice that he is claiming that from 34 weeks, he landed winning doubles on weeks 1,2,5,8,9,11,12,13,15,17,18,19,21,23,24,25,26,29,30.31 and 34. Now that in my book makes a 100% record on 21 of the 34 weeks. The shortest winning double was 8/1 and the results are so unbelievable they can’t be true. My Colleague Lee from Pro Staking, co author of this magazine was telling me about his experi-ences with Swaine. He joined him as a 16 year old in 1989 and his first “Letter bet” contained an 8/1 winner ( Sparrows Hair) from Barry Hills stable and a 3/1 loser. Lee experienced the same thrills as me with the letter bets but he also told me he subscribed to a series of 20 further Letters and NONE of them had a winning double, the prices got dramatically shorter and he never resub-scribed. In our day these were fascinating experiences with Tipsters and when I See newcomers to racing joining new services and testing them out, and asking each other which ones to join, I often want to scream at them and tell them how they are wasting years and how I cant fast track them, but I also remember the pleasure of services like the above gave me and the Thrill involved, much as they all turned out to be a disappointment in time. I did a review for a past magazine on MARTIN WELLS last year and his series of bets were disappointments, lost money and I believe he sold my address to a home marketing company. I Think what these guys do is take it in turns to adver-tise , so that every few months one of the services has gone “Underground” and they then reap-pear months later writing to us claiming the fantasy that SWAINE Has just asked me to swallow. IF I subscribed, I would be disappointed with results and then come Autumn no doubt Another Letter – Better will appear then who is currently underground now. Nice little syndicate, but be-lieve me you can’t make money with this form of tipster. One of my rare successes with Tipsters came from a mystery phone line that I rang every week on a non premium rate number. I had come across it by chance in the winter of 1989-1990. It was called the RUMBLE RACING CLUB and it was updated every Sunday night by trainer TOBY BALDING. I came across it and rang it and it was all about this 1 horse that was being laid out for a race in 6 months time. We were told to ring back every Sunday for the weekly reports on this horse. Each week BALDING Said it would not get beaten on its intended race in March which was several months away. It was getting me excited. It ran 3 times that season and was beaten 12, 24 and 27 lengths on each occasion. BALDING kept saying “Don’t Worry today was not the aim, its only march that matters “. I was getting excited by this, I had only been betting

about 5 years but I knew I had something here. March came and it was Mares Only Handicap fi-nal at Newbury and the horse was called REACH ME DOWN. On that day in March he hacked up by 4 lengths landing a big gamble, and it was one of my best ever wins. Hindsight and experi-ence tells me the horse had not been “off “all year and he had brilliantly laid this horse out all win-ter for Newbury and the Gamble was landed and I won enough to pay off all my debts that spring. It was the best of times and much as I don’t bet his runners anymore if I can help it, Toby Bald-ing was one of the best trainers this game has ever seen in his day. I Tried THE SWEENEY once after reading outrageous claims but the call was too long, the spin put Alistair Campbell to shame and basically I hated the service from that day and I never rang him again .Someone does though as the adverts are still there in the Weekender every week. One Tipster that had a lot of Class was RUSSEL CLARKE. I was not a member of his service and I did not follow his business but I read many an article he wrote in many different places and he taught me a lot .I heard he moved abroad, I don’t know if that was true but some people are worth paying to learn things from, and he was one of those people. He could probably save you years of learning and hundreds of losers by listening to his wisdom. You did not even need to follow his selections to learn .I Cant vouch for his bets or prof-itability but I understand on good authority he was profitable and his “Extra” articles and scribing’s were valuable in their own right. I Spent 9 months with PREMIER RACING in 1995. I will admit the claims interested me and I thought the service was pretty straight. It was run by a Manchester United fanatic called Adrian with a Polish surname that escapes me. Strong claims, well run service, looked professional, and I did enjoy the service and I would say that it met 80% of my expectations. I may have been a few quid in front after about 30 bets but it was not much and I was fighting ahead with some good value prices and at SP the service would have been just behind. I thought they were a good solid “mid table” tipster that could hold their own but who could not deliver that extra special ingredient that was needed. Many have their stories to say about COLIN DAVEY but I was lucky to miss the Years with this Tipster. His reputation on the internet is constantly placed into question, and whilst I have heard much about him and have assumed plenty more I have no idea of the service he had from first hand experience. I consider that my Good Fortune. STEVE LEWIS HAMILTON was another service that I had no real insight into. I had seen his re-sults and new a lot about him, but I felt his costs were far higher than they deserved to be and He never appealed to me as worth pursuing after I saw him at Leicester races one day. I saw his stake on a horse and I had to question the message I should take about his confidence in that horse judging by the low stake he had .It did not strike me as a bet to have will full confidence. I met his marketing manager once in Liverpool. Malcolm, from the Cotton exchange buildings swore blind that Lewis was the best judge he had ever marketed, but I failed to see what the fuss was about myself and he talked a good game but he was not for me. I’ve since seen him several times on Television and I find that to me he comes across trying to preach the Clichéd ridden gospel that false professionals like to preach about forming a tissue and obtaining value. I felt he was the kid of man that spent hours tweaking his tissue. He lives 30 miles from me now and I’m told by people who know him that he is a decent man, but he did not look the type of man I’d want to receive betting advice from. The racing service that I spent the most amount of time with was ISIRIS RACING. No doubt con-troversial, some say the best service there has ever been before, others refute that but there is no doubt that This service is one of the most significant ones and I was with them about 4 years for most of each of those years having spent a lot of time tracking their pin numbers down and trying to stay in the service because I was certainly not going to pay for them. Trying to stay “In” the service run by this eccentric genius from the outside was like trying to follow a Ferrari in a

chevette. Looking back I was one of the “pirates “that Booth hated and tried to outsmart. I was like the journalist Jack McGee in the Incredible Hulk who spent years tracking down the Hulk but was always one step behind. I Respected Booth a great deal. I feel I had the better of him over the years and he certainly won me money. Booth did have his victories over me. He tried to ag-gressively stop the Piracy by giving false and misleading bets deliberately including that “infamous” Treble maximum bet that was designed to hurt the pirates like myself who were not genuine members. Booth hurt me that day as I fell for the bet, but it was not a problem and I de-served the punishment. It was a battle and there are always casualties of war and he won that battle. Overall though I had the better of him and I won money from the service and learnt a lot from Booth. I Look back now and understand that every service has a shelf life that they can be successful and I now don’t feel ISIRIS is the same service. After his incarnation at her majesty’s pleasure the service never held the same interest and once you have a year out of the game it can take you 2 years to get back into it successfully. Winning money for others is not easy. At his best Booth was the best I’ve ever seen at doing this, but his day is passed in my opinion and my interest in the service died a long time ago. I have a couple of friends who asked me to join HENRY RIX as a 3rd Leg which I did under pro-test. I was not that interested in Rix but when he left the Racing Post as their main tipster it was like Mass Hysteria and people were flooding to pay the Big Fees at the time .My friends stopped ringing in after a few weeks. From memory the service got off to a bad start and spent a serious amount of time losing before it was turned around. Rix spent a long time in the doldrums before he started clawing back. He tipped a 40/1 winner at the 1999 Cheltenham Festival but many of us had long since gone by the wayside and lost interest in the service. I personally detest services like this. The big Aloof, Expensive ,Inaccessible and Unaccountable type of blockbuster like this just does not work in my opinion .Services like these are only interested in long term figures and adverts that confirm a winning service . They don’t care about long losing runs as they automati-cally assume that every member has a separate bank for their betting, follows every bet to the let-ter, gets on at top price without fail and only notices how their betting banks are doing after a year. The truth is far different. Those that have betting banks are always shuffling money in and out of them, people don’t always follow tipsters to the letter and rarely when they miss prices, and people don’t cope well psychologically well with long losing runs. If You tip 100 people 20 con-secutive losers and then give them a 25/1 winner you have made then a significant profit, but only if you have not knocked them out with the long losing run .People talk about it being the “individual’s” choice to join and bet but I don’t always buy that theory. The same scenario happened with MEL COLLIER as it did with RIX. I had to write an article for a previous magazine and I was monitoring Collier in the early part of his service. I had by then lost all interest in racing services from a subscriber’s perspective and had more interest from a moni-toring perspective. I Looked at Collier’s first few weeks and on my figures he had 1 winner from 34 bets at 7/1 with a couple of horses placed each way .I have no idea whether Collier is now showing a profit but I’ll bet long odds on that his original members are not all still around. I tried Asparagus once and hated it and I feel the same about the TIMEFORM PHONE BETS which was another service I had been syndicated in by friends. We looked at about 30 bets and there were about 3 or 4 winners around the 7/2 price range. It did not work out for us several years ago and since then I have never heard anyone who says they make profits through this service. These types of services do not deliver as they are not there to deliver .They are not cre-ated to deliver, they are just Spin Offs and marketing gadgets to earn them money. It was the same when I reviewed JIM MCGRATH in his new service. He has 12 winners from 74 bets and a huge loss with long losing runs and this is offered as the main expert of the longest established form bible the game has ever seen. I was fast losing interest in racing services by the mid-late 1990’s. Lets face it I had been at it al-most 13 years trying to find the Holy Grail .By about 1997-1998 the only person I was regularly following was NICK MORDIN . There are certain people in this life that commit crimes that de-

serve punishment, but some of them deserve clemency for services they have performed in the past .MORDIN is the strongest case for Clemency that I have ever seen. I think Nick was never a top class tipster at any stage, but he was electric, thought provoking and innovative and he gave you more than winners. He Taught. You can’t buy the things he could teach you and he changed the way I looked at racing. I was not on my own, there is an army of Mordonites that were brought up on his gospel and many disciples still follow his teachings. He almost stopped me looking at tipping services single handily and taught me how to teach myself and not to be afraid to express myself in study. I Know that sounds a bit American but the man was unique and you did chal-lenge yourself from his teachings. The MORDIN Diocese is split into many factions now. Many still stay loyal to the Man, Many have left his calling and moved on and many have come full cir-cle and have started to question his original findings. Personally I have moved so far away from Mordin now I almost don’t recognise myself in those past days. I have never rated him as a Tip-ster as he doesn’t care enough about the factors that his clients do, that is Strike Rate, Profit, avoiding losing runs and keeping ahead. His Service became an intellectual caricature of itself. It was clear to me he was Intellectualising and that the reasons why he selected his bets became far more important than the bets themselves. If you look at MORDINS Record in Tipping horses, its is awful and a long way behind some of the more corrupt services. He is a desperate tipster, and he is fast in Decline. However he is fiercely honest, incredibly dedicated and has forgotten more than most will ever know and his status in the game is legendary and whilst he couldn’t make a profit for anyone, he is a True Great and I can forgive the man just about anything. I never left Mordin. Nobody leaves Mordin in the same way that Policeman never retire and your Headmaster is always your headmaster. You just expose yourself less and less to him. I did this quickly and moved into areas myself that were working for me and at that stage I was showing a regular profit at betting in the mid 1990’s. Since I started Mathematician Racing, time seems a distant old friend and I have stopped moni-toring and following tipsters bar the odd service here and there. To the percentage of you that hate tipsters and would never follow them I would simply say that you will already know that you are not doing anything wrong by staying in the group of people you are currently in. I won’t con-cede that you are right as I know you are wrong as there are winning services out there, but you are right to be sceptical and reticent to trust any tipster and your scepticism will probably protect you rather than harm you. To the other 50% of you, I would say I understand that Passion and enjoyment you get from be-ing in racing services. I have felt it over my 13 years (1985-1998) of being a serial subscriber, a member, a Pirate, Monitor, a voyeur or a non subscriber or whatever label you can put on me, and I recognise it in many of you. Try and understand how the industry works though. Try and see that only a very small number of people can win “Other “people money. Try and understand that there is Primary and Secondary information. My Personal journey of tipsters is detailed and what strikes me is that almost All of the services that I Have come into contact with and tested over the years are still in business now. These services were running in 1985 and in 1998 and the majority of them still run now. Have they made their clients half as much as they have made themselves? I doubt that and I would not steer you in any of the above service’s direction. Win-ning Services are out there but you can count them on one hand and none of them will last for-ever. The Shelf life is short if you are committed. The effort needed to win money for others will only be made by the very unique, very insular and very determined and many decent services will stop short and sell out, turn native and go for the fast buck and fail to fulfil their potentials. You will come to the end of the road eventually. It took me years to win money at racing regularly and years to understand that Tipsters were only a very small part of that and nothing more .Try and imagine that you are the Chairman of a Football Club and the success or failure of that club over a period of time reflects the success or failure of your own betting. As chairman you make the fi-nal decisions. Your Club (your betting history) will be determined by the decisions you make as Chairman. When you appoint your manager, you are appointing your Tipster. View them as Foot-ball Managers and remember that of all the clubs in the league, only a few can win major

honours. Very few managers succeed or make the club successful over many years. Very few stay in employment long at the same club delivering even the modest of success, and in the end very few stay loyal to the club and most only stay loyal to themselves. Finally remember that you get out of this game what you put into it, you need to invest in yourself and your betting like the Chairman has to invest in his club and what success you do find is usually short lived and never lasts long.

1000 GUINEAS

An Ante Post Guide to the First Classic Newmarket Sunday May 4th

Latest Betting

5/1 SOVIET SONG J.Fanshawe 5/1 RUSSIAN RHYTHM M.Stoute 7/1 SIX PERFECTIONS P.Bary 16/1 INTERCONTINENTAL A Fabre 20/1 KHULOOD J Dunlop 25/1 ETOILE MONTANTE Mme C Head-Maarek 25/1 GEMINIANI B Hills 25/1 LOVING KINDNESS Godolphin 25/1 NAYZAK M.Stoute 33/1 L’ANCRESSE R.Charlton 33/1 REACH FOR THE MOON A. O’Brien 33/1 WALDMARK M Stoute The 1000 Guineas has been the hardest Classic to decipher in recent years. The Table Below il-lustrates the hard task that’s set Ante Post Punters. The Last 3 winners have been Horses that were very hard to fancy at 14/1 11/1 and 14/1. In Fact going back to1993 the Favourite has only won 3 of the 10 Renewals and that was once with a Joint –Fav. There has also been a large number of Big Priced Placed Horses. PRICES RETURNED SINCE 1993 Year Winner Second Third 1993 4/1 6/1 33/1 1994 12/1 20/1 6/1 1995 5/1 3/1 F 5/1 1996 10/11F 9/1 8/1 1997 5/1 50/1 16/1 1998 10/3JF 9/1 8/1 1999 4/1 F 16/1 11/1 2000 14/1 66/1 6/4 F 2001 11/1 13/2 10/1 2002 14/1 28/1 6/1

ROLL OF HONOUR

1985 Oh So Sharp Kris - Oh So Fair 1986 Midway Lady Alleged - Smooth Bore 1987 Miesque Nureyev - Pasadoble 1988 Ravinella Mr. Prospector - Really Lucky 1989 Musical Bliss The Minstrel - Bori 1990 Salsabil Sadler's Wells - Flame of Tara 1991 Shadayid Shadeed - Desirable 1992 Hatoof Irish River - Cadeaux d'Amie 1993 Sayyedati Shadeed - Dubian 1994 Las Meninas Glenstal - Spanish Habit 1995 Harayir Gulch - Saffaanh 1996 Bosra Sham Woodman - Korveya 1997 Sleepytime Royal Academy - Alidiva 1998 Cape Verdi Caerleon - Afrique Bleu Azur 1999 Wince Selkirk - Flit 2000 Lahan Unfuwain - Amanah 2001 Ameerat (GB) Mark of Esteem (IRE) - Walimu (IRE) 2002 Kazzia (GER) Zinaad (GB) - Khoruna (GER) There is a Wonderful roll of honour in past years with some lovely Fillies taking this Prize such as Cape Verdi, Bosra Sham and Ravinella. Since 1999 the quality seems to have decreased and its clear that either we are Due a Vintage Crop of 3 Year old Fillies or that the Better 3 Year olds are saved for later in the year and trainers feel that this Classic comes too soon in the season . Yes KAZZIA Won the Oaks but it was substandard and it’s interesting that AMEERAT, LAHAN, WINCE, LAS MENINAS and CAPE VERDI All failed to win another race after landing their 1000g and it took SAYEEDATI two Years to win again after her triumph. This year we may just have that Classic Vintage, and we are certainly due a filly of the highest class to match up with the Colts who have dominated the Mile races as 3 year olds with horses like Rock of Gibraltar. This year there is a strong French Presence with at least 3 leading contenders Headed by SIX PERFEC-TIONS who headed the International Classifications last year.

INTERNATIONAL CLASSIFICATIONS Rating Horse Sex Owner Trainer Trained

121 Six Perfections (FRA) F Niarchos Family P.Bary FR 117 Airwave F Henry Candy & Partners H.Candy GB 116 Etoile Montante (USA) F K Abdullah C Head-Maarek FR 116 Russian Rhythm (USA) F Chevely Park Stud Sir Michael Stoute GB 115 Le Vie Dei Colori (GB) F Scuderia Archi Romani R.Brogi ITY 114 Soviet Song (IRE) F Elite Racing Club J.R Fanshawe GB 112 Danaskaya (IRE) F Ballylinch Stud J.S Bolger IRE 112 Luvah Girl F Team Valor R. Charlton GB 112 Wunders Dream (GB) F J.Ellis J.G Given GB 111 Intercontinental (USA) F Mr K. Abdulla A. Fabre FR 110 Alamshar (IRE) F H H Aga Khan J. Oxx IRE 110 Casual Look (USA) F W S Farish Iii I. A Balding GB 110 Geminiani (IRE) F Mrs E Roberts B.W Hills GB 110 Romantic Liason F Godolphin Saeed Bin Suroor GB 110 Yesterday (IRE) F Mrs John Magnier A.P O'Brien IRE 110 Zinziberine (USA) F Mme A Fabre A. Fabre FR

The International Classifications are an end of season Ritual to identify the top horses each year and from last years top 2 year old Fillies you will see that SIX PERFECTIONS Has been clearly rated Top of her age and sex. The 2nd horse in the list (AIRWAVE) Is a sprinter and has no Clas-sic Pretensions this year. On her Form and Profile the Ante Post price about SIX PERFECTIONS was massive , but you have the big problem that her trainer Pascal Bary seems to detest our Guineas and he never seems to run his best horses anywhere but France , which is disappoint-ing as he was assistant trainer to Mark Prescott in his early days . The INTERNATIONAL CLAS-SIFICATIONS are no more than someone’s opinion though and hardly to be taken as an accu-rate guide. There was an old system years ago that provided many previous Guineas winners by insisting that you had to have a horse that was given a rating over a certain number in the Inter-national Classifications, as anything below that number seemed to lack the Class to win the race. That system has been let down though in recent years and the old profile of a Group 1 Winning juvenile coming out and winning the Nell Gwyn Stakes and then the Guineas before starting fa-vourite for the Oaks seemed to have died with OH SO SHARP in 1985 . These days, winners are just as likely to come from Maidens and have No Previous Group 1 Form, and that makes “winner finding “very hard indeed. In fact, you almost feel the winner of the 1000g contest is parallel to a Competition of who wins the Top Prize at the Chelsea Flower Show. It’s simply about “Which Blossoms Best on the Day“ The Record of Trainers in the race does not offer much help. Since Henry Cecil’s Decline you can probably only assume Runners for Godolphin, Stoute and Aidan O Brien and Only 2 winners in the last 10 have come from all these 3 stables. Both were Godolphin successes and one was a 20/1 outsider. It is the hardest classic to Call and Trainer form does not appear to be the Key to the race, as the Following Table Illustrates.

TRAINERS 10 YEAR RECORD

Trainer 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 Godolphin W 2 18 5 + 10 W 5,10 3 3 - - J. Dunlop 2 - 15 - 9 - 7 2 4 - A. O Brien 4 + 7 3 8 15 2 - - - - - M.Stoute 3 5+13 3 17 3 3 6 7 15 7 J. Gosden 12 4+ 8 W 3+4 - 8 - - 8+11 4 J. Fanshaw - - 10 - - - - - - - French Runners - 7 - 18 5 4 - 6 3 - R. Hannon 17 14 14 20 6+7 - - 11 2 6 M Channon 16 6 4+17 7 - - - 13 - - L Cumani 8 - 9 - - - 11 14 6 12

PROFILE OF THE LAST 10 WINNERS The interesting points are… …

1) 5 of the Last 10 winners were beaten on their latest start 2) Previous Form Abroad is not a negative factor 3) The Nell Gwyn stakes is out of fashion as a Significant trial 4) Only 1 Winner in the last 10 years had previously won a Group 1 Race 5) Only 1 Other Winner had even Won in Group 2 Company 6) Only 1 Filly in the last 10 years was unbeaten going into the race 7) 6 of the Last 10 winners had been beaten at least twice before 8) The last 2 winners were “First-time-out” that year 9) Only 5 of the Last 10 winners had EVER Won a Group Race before. 10) The Ante Post Winter Favourites are not enjoying a good spell in this race.

THE MARKET LEADERS

SOVIET SONG J.R Fanshawe GB Elite Racing Club

Conclusion: I strongly expect something will improve past her this year And She is poor value to win at Newmarket

SOVIET SONG Was rated 4th in the International Classifications as a 2 year old. She is unbeaten in all her starts as a juvenile and headed ante post lists over the winter. Statistically she has plenty against her. She went unbeaten through the progressive routes of winning her Maiden, then a listed race then Group 1 race, but the Statistics show that Group1 winners have only won once in the last 10 years at Newmarket, only 1 unbeaten horse won in the same time period and over half the winners of this race since 1993 had not even won on their latest start. I know it is an assumption, and not easy to justify but is it really likely that a horse that’s owned by the Elite Rac-ing Club and their 10,000 members are going to land the 1000 Guineas? Are you romantic enough to imagine and wish for the Winners enclosure at Newmarket filled with the Elite Racing Club and their entourage devaluing out Classic ? I am not. Call it snobbery but come the race you will realise that it was only a Dream. Is it not more realistic that in line with past winners of this race, the best juvenile fillies were lightly raced backward types that deliberately missed Group1 Company in their 1st season? My best guess is that SOVIET SONG was the benefactor of the better fillies avoiding her. She will go straight to Newmarket without a prep race so she should not shorten too dramatically in the betting. Fanshaw was quoted as saying recently that “She's a filly who doesn't take a lot of getting ready and it's a long year.” I don't want to run her under her Group 1 penalty and she is unlikely to go for one of the trials." James Fanshaw has not got a strong record with Group 1 Fillies and I think it was significant that last year Godolphin did not attempt to purchase her when the previous year they had bought Grandera from the same stable. She will at least stay the mile but no further and she won’t be inconvenienced by fast ground on the day or in the unlikely event it turns soft. Per-sonally I think she has many questions to answer and I don’t see her as the winner come May 4th

RUSSIAN RHYTHM M Stoute Cheveley Park Stud

Conclusion: Smacks of Group 1 Class but all the evidence is that her peers will catch her up and overtake her and too many factors could be against her at Newmarket

RUSSIAN RHYTHM was bought for 440,000gns by Stoute and Chris Richardson of the Cheveley Park Stud as she was the horse that stood head and shoulders above any other horse at the Houghton Sales. “I have always had a good feel for her," said her trainer. "It doesn't always work out, but she was always imposing and athletic. Everybody who rode her, when she was cantering early on, liked her, and you knew from the first time she went into work that she was going to be a decent standard of filly.” RUSSIAN RHYTHM Was always viewed as a top class prospect and rumours of her excellence preceded her debut at Newmarket. She then went and won a Group 3 race and earnt a 10/1 quote for the Guineas. Very few will forget her run at York in the group 2 when badly hampered and boxed in before Fallon executed a brilliant turn of foot to beat her ri-vals. She was devastating that day visually and shot to favouritism for this race but it needs to be said that she only beat sprinters that day and that the substance of juvenile form is largely irrele-vant in this race over the last few years. She lost her unbeaten record In the Cheveley Park (Group 1)but she was found to be in season and there was a slow pace that day and she was never going to beat Airwave at 6 furlongs that day .At this stage confidence in her dropped as SOVIET SONG had just won the Fillies mile and big things were happening in France as well. I Don’t think she did anything wrong on her last start and think she is a far more exciting candidate than SOVIET STAR . There is no doubt she is a Group 1 Filly, she has an imposing physique and devouring stride And she was rated Joint 2nd best Filly in Europe as a juvenile. She is not without her Flaws though. I have strong reservations about her at Newmarket in May though. Her price at 5/1 is skinny enough just for starters. From a statistical viewpoint she shares the same statistical problems that Soviet Star shares in that she has been campaigned in all the top 2 year old races and may not have the same improvement as some of the lighter raced unexposed fillies. Fallon gave the clues away by saying “She feels like a three-year-old at the moment and she's definitely got serious ability. You only have to look at the times of her races - she ran the final furlong of the Lowther faster than Kyllachy in the Nunthorpe”. She will train on but you have to wonder how much more can come from her. I would also worry that Being a Kingmambo, and a huge horse she may not be comfortable running on lightening fast ground coming into the Dip on Guinea’s day. Michael Stoute raised this issue himself before the Chevely Park where she lost her un-beaten record. Her strong points are her strong physique and turn of acceleration and her laid back temperament. She is also very likely to get the Mile, but at her price she looks only average value for the Guineas and the niggling worry is that the rest of her generation will have caught her up over the winter.

SIX PERFECTIONS Pascal Bary FR Niarchos Family

Conclusion: If she runs, and its soft then she will win easily but it won’t be soft and she won’t run and she is a poor bet before the day. This Brilliant French Filly was rated the best of her sex last year and Topped the International Classifications by a massive 4lbs. Several decent judges and handicappers agreed with that as-sessment despite the Brilliance of some of the British Fillies. Pascal Bary's daughter of 1994 Ju-venile champion Celtic Swing posted three impressive wins, the most noteworthy coming on her final start when she brushed aside a decent Prix Marcel Boussac field from Etoile Montante. The Racing post looked at her performances over the winter and declared that “Her level of form would have been good enough to secure eight renewals of the 1,000 Guineas in the past decade, including the last four “. The plaudits didn’t stop there. Notable Breeding expert Tony Morris stated “SIX PERFECTIONS has sound claims to be considered best of her age and sex in Europe. Looks sure to train on and prove a live Guineas candidate in 2003. She is by some way the best we have seen so far by the one-time European two-year-old champion Celtic Swing, who has now served six northern hemisphere seasons “.

Her only defeat was on her debut when she was beaten first time out at Chantilly, when the five-and-a-half-furlong trip may have been too sharp. She then went and won a listed race in France leaving a striking impression in her six-length victory quickening up well. SIX PERFECTIONS Moved up to Group 3 Company next time and won easily. Pascal Bary said after the race that “She has the most perfect temperament and can both stay and accelerate. A mile will be no problem for her and she had the race wrapped up a long way out." Her final start was in the Prix Marcel Boussac when devastating in taking the Group 1 prize. She is certainly a Brilliant prospect but with here we run into serious concerns. Firstly Pascal Bary dislikes running his best horses in our Guineas and does not send many over to our shores. He has won 3 French Derby’s but refuses to send runners over to Epsom and his representatives in the Guineas have also been conspicuous by their absence. The other big worry is that she would have serious question marks at Newmarket on fast ground. Being a daughter of Celtic Swing she should generally prefer a bit of cut in the ground. She has no experience at all on fast ground and it seems highly likely that the French Guineas is a more suitable target for her and Bary will most likely target her there. If she comes, and it’s soft then she wins the race. It’s highly likely that she will neither get soft ground nor come and she is not the horse to be betting until the day of the race.

INTERCONTINENTAL A. Fabre FR Mr K. Abdulla

Conclusion: She is not France’s Number 1 but can they win our Classic with their reject even in a vintage French year? I Doubt it and she should not be good enough. INTERCONTINENTAL looks a high class filly in the making and it remains to be seen whether she comes over to England and contests the guineas. Unlike Six Perfections Her trainer won’t be afraid to come, and this Full sister to Banks Hill will love the fast ground at Newmarket. She is waiting for that ground; she has not had it yet. She won her first 2 starts easily at 30/100 on dead ground in small fields beating very little and she looked nothing more than a decent prospect. She then took on the colts in a Group 1. It seemed a very bold and significant move by Andre Fabre to throw Intercontinental in with the colts in the Grand Criterium, but it almost came off, with a close third place to Hold That Tiger and Le Vie Dei Colori .As a filly against colts that was a class run and its easy to see why she was rated the 2nd best French Filly last year, albeit some way behind Six Perfections. Raceform were not convinced stating she did not go through with her efforts that day but nevertheless it was an excellent run. Whether she races in France and goes for their guineas, or comes over to ours may yet be determined by the ground and it may be that she goes wherever Six Perfections does not, but whilst she remains a top class prospect she does not appeal as an ante post bet with doubts about her target, and doubts that France will have produced the English 1000g win-ner with their 2nd best filly. Could they really have 2 horses capable of beating all out fillies in May?

KHULOOD John Dunlop Hamdan Al Maktoum

Conclusion: Strongly suspected to Fall just short of Group 1 Class and never taken seri-ously by her stable as a potential Classic winner. KHULOOD is a John Dunlop Filly and a magnificently bred daughter of Storm Cat. She is simply a front runner who loves to bowl along in front and she will try and make all at Newmarket and

see if she can stay the mile. She ought to just about stay it but her style of running does cast that in doubt. John Dunlop responded that "Whether she stays or not is down to her, she's pretty lively. She could stay a mile, but she has got a lot of speed." She won her Ascot maiden, which worked out well before flopping at odds on at Salisbury. There were 2 excuses that were put forward for her Salisbury defeat. Firstly there is the theory that she needed to be out in front yet she resented being held up. The other theory was that she hated the rain softened ground. Nothing concrete ever came to light and it remains a mystery. KHULOOD then won her final race of the year in Listed class by 4 lengths when breaking Dr Devious's seven-furlong juvenile course record and running her rivals into the ground . She is an interesting prospect but I see her as likely to be lacking Group 1 Class. My Main reason is that John Dunlop has been in slow decline for a long time now. The heady days of Salsabil are a long time ago and Dunlop’s quality has reduced over the years. His Group race wins have reduced in number al-most every year since 1998 and it strikes me that KHULOOD was never thought of in classic terms and the horse was not given any fancy entries last year. She wasn’t even entered in the Cheveley Park and that’s not the sign of a John Dunlop Group 1 filly and she looks below Classic standard.

ETOILE MONTANTE Mme C Head-Maarek FR K Abdullah

Conclusion: Similar type to Intercontinental and clearly not the best French horse and vic-tory at Newmarket would take extraordinary winter improvement. Mme C Head runs several horses at Newmarket but this filly looks to be flattered and I would not see her as a Guineas winner. She is a half-sister to a sprinter who stayed a mile and the Guineas trip should be her maximum trip. She owes her 3rd Place status in the International Classifications to her defeat behind Six Perfections who swept her aside in the Prix Marcel Boussac. She came into that Group 1 as the winner of a newcomer’s race in France and a Minor event and ran with credit when stepped up to Group 1 Company. Her 1st test as a 3 year old will be in France and she will probably go where Six Perfections does not. She fits very much in the mould of Intercontinental as France’s second string of talent and if she wins at Newmarket it will mean that France wins without racing its true star and that would be a body blow to the English. She should appreciate fast ground which does increase her chance of running on May 4th.

LOVING KINDNESS Godolphin Saeed Bin Suroor Conclusion: Her prospects of landing the Fillies Classic currently look like a sick joke and her position in the betting is only due to her being Frankie’s ride. LOVING KINDNESS started her Career with Pascal Bary winning minor events in France and she was expected to easily cope with Group 1 Class in the Prix Morny in August. She started “even money” to beat Elusive City that day but she folded tamely and could not run her race. Ear-lier in the year she had been looking special and worked with 3 year olds. Connections could only offer the excuse that she did not run her race. She tried to redeem her reputation against Hold That Tiger and Intercontinental in the Grand Criterium but she disappointed again and by then Classic pretensions were looking very ambitious. In Stepped Godolphin who bought her. Simon Crisford commented that “She's a Group-winner already and, long-term, she's going to be a great acquisition to the broodmare band,". Godolphin wintered her and brought her out this February in the Moonshell Mile, a race they have won both times. They wanted to make it a clean sweep and ran 4 horses that day but Loving Kindness could only manage 5th place and came only 3rd of the Godolphin quintet. She was tongue tied at Ned El Sheba and she does not look the progressive

filly that she threatened to be at one stage. Its far too early to say that Godolphin wasted their money but surely Classic aspirations are in tatters and her position in the Guineas betting is a joke, but done so only because she may be Frankie Dettori’s ride at Newmarket and he did take the race with the unfancied Kazzia last year at 20/1. It would take amazing things to happen to see her win and the Vibes from Godolphin are all negative.

THE UNEXPOSED CHALLENGERS

Whilst it is naturally going to take a great amount of luck to find the winner of the 1000g from a large selection of unraced and unexposed talent, it is probably a necessary task to try. Remember the statistics at the start. Half the winners of this race were beaten last time, Only 1 of the last 10 winners had won a Group 1 race before and Only 1 more had won a Group 2 race. In the last 10 years only 1 Filly has been unbeaten, over half have been beaten more than once in their careers and half have never won in Group Class before winning. It is possible the race is changing and the days of the Juvenile Champion winter-ing as Favourite before winning the Nell Gwyn and then the Guineas died in the mid 1980’s with Oh So Sharp .History demands that we search in the dark and for the obscure to try and finds the winner and I have not yet looked at a horse that I am tempted to bet in the race from the “Proven Group horse “. Running through Ante Post lists, we come to NAYZAK at 25/1. She is a Daughter of Silver Hawk and trained by Michael Stoute and she looked highly promising before suffering in-jury and was forced to miss the end of the season. I don’t like the form much or the injury and The Newmarket Correspondent that has written in this magazine tells us that both Russian Rhythm the ante post favourite and WALDMARK are ahead of her in the pecking order on home work at Stoute’s. With WALDMARK I am very tempted to make her the bet at 33/1 having had confirmation of her wintering well. She was after all impressive on her debut, entered in the Chevely Park and Fillies Mile last year. However more detailed study of her pedigree suggests that she looks more of an Oaks Filly and she will probably need 10-12 furlongs this year. Her Dam won the German St Leger over 14 furlongs and Newmarket’s mile may be against her. I see her as an Oaks bet rather than a Guineas bet. BILLBILL is an unraced daughter of Storm Cat trained by David Loder but she is easy to pass up as an unraced filly as it has been many years since one triumphed at Newmarket. Jeremy Noseda’s CASSIS does not fit the profile of a Classic winner and looks far too exposed already and below Group 1 Class. DANASKAYA and EGO are priced up in some lists for the classic but omitted from others. Both are well held by Russian Rhythm and EGO in particular looks a sprinter and far from certain to stay the trip or even try it. HI DUBAI Looks easily held by NAYZAK and has it all to do. L’ANCRESSE is a Roger Charlton filly that needs time and will look to de-velop into an Oaks horse and the Mile will be too sharp and too early for her.

THE VALUE

GEMINIANI 25/1 REACH FOR THE MOON 33/1

Barry Hills has the 25/1 shot GEMINIANI in ante post lists and this daughter of King of Kings is unbeaten after winning twice at Goodwood both times. She won an average maiden (You don’t often get this yard having 1st time out juveniles winning) and then raced

in the Prestige stakes beating 2 unbeaten Fillies and the Cherry Hinton Winner. Connections were talking her up after the race as a Filly with Class and Scope and a Filly that would be better on a Flatter track. The Form of that race looks excellent and was given a Massive boost when The Runner up MAIL THE DESERT came out and won the Group 1 Moyglare Stud stakes at the Curragh. The 3rd that day HUJA RAN Soviet Song to 3 lengths in the Fillies Mile when patently not staying and on a line through that filly GEMINIANI Comes out very well with the ante post favourite. It was therefore a disappointment that she was cast in her Box in September and missed the rest of the season. Before that injury Barry Hills had nominated the Fillies Mile or the Marcel Boussac as likely options. She is a lovely big filly and remains of great potential and if she winters well she could be value at 25/1. The downside with her would be very fast ground at Newmarket and that could be against her. You also have to wonder what Barry Hills has in mind for her and whether his stable will be as slow starting as they were last spring. GEMINIANI certainly makes the short list though and she has stayed constant at 25/1 and 20/1 for the race since last August yet is available at 33/1 with Ukbetting. REACH FOR THE MOON 33/1 is surely overpriced simply because she is an Aidan O Brien trained runner. She won her maiden at Cork easily enough prompting connections to declare that "We've always thought highly of her and she won very nicely “. The Runner up only won a nursery but that can hardly be held against the winner. REACH FOR THE MOON was then laid out for the Group 1 Mylar Stud Stakes and was morning favourite for the race before being withdrawn due to coughing like so many of the Ballydoyle juveniles at the time. She had a lay off of 2 months before being sent to the Fillies Mile where she started at 9/1 to win the Group 1 race. She probably was not 100% ready to do herself justice that day. Aidan O’Brien stated before the race that “She isn't long back in work and, while she seems to be in good form and should like the ground, this is really a learning process for her.". REACH FOR THE MOON was stepping up from Maiden Company to Group 1 Company and she ran with credit in finishing 3rd to SOVIET SONG having been forced to travel widest in the straight. She lacked experience and race fitness and it was an encouraging effort. With this Filly we have a horse trained by the best trainer in Europe, at 4 times the price of the Favourite for the Guineas and when you consider she was only 3 lengths behind her at Newmarket in a Group 1 having had an interrupted preparation , its not a tall order to see her improve dramatically over the winter . She is a £1,650,000 yearling and a half-sister to Agnes Digital and with the Magnier-Tabor connection it’s not hard to like her at 25/1

Conclusion

Both GEMINIANI at 25/1 and REACH FOR THE MOON at 33/1 look to be the Value in the race and a split stake bet to small stakes would appear to be the best option at this very early stage.

WEBSITE OF INTEREST

Being heavily involved with Racing and with a healthy interest in Ante-Post betting I thought I’d share an invaluable Website that I use. It is permanently on my desktop and I

find it an invaluable tool for both Ante Post and Arbing Opportunities.

WWW.NEWSNOW.CO.UK This is a Live News-feed service started in 1997. It scans hundreds of websites every 5 minutes and monitors breaking news in from thousands of the Internet's most important online publications, including international, national and regional titles, newswires, maga-zines, press releases and exclusively online news sources. I use it solely for Horse Rac-ing and it’s a perfect opportunity to get Breaking News stories and Quotes, clippings and opinions instantly before the masses read about it over breakfast the next day. It is a free service, and offers a Search facility and if you want to find out which horses are injured, or find out the latest stable plans it can be an excellent resource for the serious gambler. I just scroll through to the Horse Racing section and check the site regularly to gain the edge that you need in a fast moving sport.

No Risk Betting On The Betting Exchanges By Lee Keys Arbitrage Equipment/Key Skills Required ?? ADSL High Speed Internet Connection ?? Additional TV Monitor for monitoring price changes ?? Keyboard/Mouse Skills ?? Quick Thinking/Head For Figures

Just like the financial markets playing the betting exchanges is a competitive arena and sharp thinking and awareness are needed in order to maximise profits. The best way to find a solution to a problem is to first iron out any weaknesses. It pays to be honest with yourself and if you’re fairly slow with a keyboard or a mouse then it would pay long term to learn to touch type or improve your speed around the computer. Likewise if you’re a little slow when it comes to working with figures then the ‘arb’ calculator supplied with this man-ual will help you work more efficiently. Remember there are no barriers to success with the right application and the will to overcome the improbable. What Is Arbitrage? Arbitrage is a common trading term used in the financial markets and more recently the betting exchanges. In laymans terms the word ‘arbitrage’ means to offset a sum of money already traded whereby giving you a situation where you will profit regardless of the result of a particular event. This is without doubt the best form of trading using the betting ex-changes and it’s an important weapon in your armoury to succeed when embarking on your career as a professional trader. Throughout this chapter I will be showing you how arbitrage works and the methods in which I use to achieve no/low risk profits on a daily basis. Below is a written example of a successful arbitrage; £100 back Mr Dow Jones @ 3.90 – Returns if bet successful = £390.00 Now using the betting exchange we would offset our investment. £100 lay Mr Dow Jones @ 3.30 – Loss if bet successful = £330.00 As you can see we have a risk free profit of £60.00 should Mr Dow Jones win the race.

It is possible to tinker with the profit margins with your arbitrage and your ‘arb’ calculator will help you with your staking to return your required profit. I will go into further detail regarding staking and profit later in the chapter, for now we’ll concentrate on the basics. Firstly there are two types of arbitrage; ?? No Risk

?? Low Risk (trading)

No Risk Arbitrage No risk arbitrage is a simple process where a simultaneous transaction guarantees a profit on your investment. Watching the bookmakers prices and comparing them with the prices on the exchanges opens up opportunities for no risk trading on a daily basis. Bookmaker Watch The idea here is basically to bet horses that are bigger prices with the bookmaker and a smaller price to lay back with the betting exchange. This requires alertness and a keen eye. You should be checking prices constantly from as early as 9.30am right up until and during racing for suitable no risk arbitrage opportunities.

1) Open as many accounts with as many online internet bookmakers as possible. If you are stuck as to how to do this go to http://www.oddschecker.com and you will find links to all the major bookmaking firms. Also keep an eye on the teletext for bookmakers that do not have internet betting facilities like Stan James. It is particularly important that you have access to as many bookmaking accounts as possible as this will only in-crease opportunities and profitability in the long term.

2) It is recommended that you keep three quarters of your betting bank in your betting ex-

change account because this is where you will be laying horses to win. If you need to lay 5/1 to a £100 stake then you will need £500 to cover the lay. The other quarter should sit in your bank account ready for use with the bookmakers when you’re back-ing horses to win.

How Do I Spot A No Risk Arb? Look for the early price races at http://www.oddschecker.com and compare the bookmakers prices with the prices on the betting exchange. If the price is bigger with the bookmaker than what is available on the lay side on the exchange then a ‘no risk arbitrage’ is a possibility. There are three possible problems before completing the ‘arb’.

1) Check that the price with the bookmaker isn’t too good to be true. Most bookmakers have a ‘palpable error’ rule, where when a clear mistake has been made they have the right to void the bet. If in doubt please check before placing the bet, ie if 20/1 is offered when only 10/1 is offered elsewhere then it is more than likely that it is a ‘palpable er-ror’. The last thing you want to do is place £100 at 20/1 with the bookmaker before proceeding to lay £100 at 16/1 on the exchange only then to find out that the book-maker has voided the bet.

2) The betting exchanges charge as much as 5% commission on all winning bets so make sure that there is sufficient profit in the bet to make you a profit as well as

covering the commission. 3) Check that there is sufficient volume waiting to be matched on the exchange before

placing the bet with the bookmaker. Occasionally there may be a time when there are others that have snapped up all the money waiting to be matched on the exchange be-fore you. For all you know it could well have been me. ;+)

Below is a written example of a ‘no risk arbitrage I completed at last year’s Cheltenham festival; At 8.40am I placed a £25 win bet on Mutakarrim to win the 2.00 race at odds of 50/1 with Vic-tor Chandler. I followed this up with a further £75 at 40/1 with Betabet. I had now a £100 stake at average odds of 42.5/1. At 9.45am I laid the full £100 stake on the betting exchange at average odds of 36/1. I now have a risk free bet on Mutakarrim in the 2.00 at Cheltenham. If the horse wins I make £650(before commission), if the horse gets beaten I lose nothing. However if you consider that Mutakarrim is probably a genuine 25/1 chance (or in percentage terms 3.85%) this means that there is a 96.15% chance that Mutakarrim is not going to win the race. So for all our efforts in ob-taining the arbitrage we don’t make any money. To solve this problem we alter our stake and re-turn levels. Setting The Correct Return Levels From Your Arbitrage An important part of arbitrage trading is making sure that you maximise your potential returns on each trade. My way of doing things may not be mathematically correct but generally I make sure that I earn a profit on each arbitrage. With the Mutakarrim trade I laid a further £18 at 34/1, which gave me a profit no matter the out-come of the race; I have staked a total of £100 on Mutakarrim to win at 42.5/1 I have staked a total of £118 on Mutakarrim to lose at 35.7/1 If Mutakarrim wins the race we profit £4250.00 from the bookmakers and we pay out £4212.60 via the betting exchange for a profit of £37.40. If Mutakarrim gets beaten we lose £100 to the bookmakers and we collect £118 (before commis-sion) from the exchanges for a profit of £18.00. All in all we stand to make a profit of at least £18.00 whatever the outcome of the race. It’s a far cry from winning the £650 if Mutakarrim was successful on the original trade but we have to be realistic. Mutakarrim could only be expected to win around four out of every one hundred races so that means that ninety six times out of a hundred we would end up with nothing. The psychol-ogy is important when entering any kind of trading or investing and when you see your bank growing it has a positive effect on the mind. Obviously it’s an advantage to have knowledge of the form book when working out how to set your return levels but if you have no knowledge of horse racing it isn’t a problem. The one simple rule is to always leave yourself a profit whatever the outcome of a race. You should always set the profit in favour of the horse getting beaten, unless of course the horse is odds on. If the horse is odds on then it means that the horse has a greater than 50% chance of winning the race and you should set a greater profit about the horse winning.