Baseline and Mitigation Strategy

for Thai RAC

The Rational for a NAMA in the

Refrigeration, Air Conditioning and

Foam Blowing Sector

page 1

Dietram Oppelt, Proklima

Bangkok, 26th July 2012

15.8.2012 Seite 2 Page 2

Baseline and Mitigation Strategy

for Thai RAC

Background – Climate Impact

Refrigeration and Air Conditioning

Refr

ige

rati

on

+ A

C

Fo

am

s

ODP

Direct Emissions

Indirect Emissions

15-20% of

world

electricity

consumption!!*

CO2

eq.

CO2

HFC

CFC,

HCFC

*IIR, 2002

15.8.2012 Seite 3 Page 3

Baseline and Mitigation Strategy

for Thai RAC

Background – From CFC, HCFC to HFC U

NE

P/W

MO

Ozo

ne

Asse

ssm

en

t, 2

00

6

(ODPs) (GWPs)

CO2 = 1 CFC-11 = 1

Climate Ozone

HFCs have no effect on the ozone layer, but are potent greenhouse

gases.

15.8.2012 Seite 4 Page 4

Baseline and Mitigation Strategy

for Thai RAC

There are climate-friendly alternatives!

Refrigerant Group Atmospheric

life

ODP GWP

R11 CFC 130 1 4000

R12 CFC 130 1 8500

R22 HCFC 15 .05 1500

R134a HFC 16 0 1300

R404a HFC 16 0 3260

R410a HFC 16 0 1720

R507 HFC 130 1 3300

R717 NH3 - 0 0

R744 CO2 - 0 1

R290 HC < 1 0 8

R600a HC < 1 0 8

High GWP

“Drop-Ins”

Low GWP

Natural

Refrigerants

15.8.2012 Seite 5 Page 5

Baseline and Mitigation Strategy

for Thai RAC

There are alternatives for (nearly) all

applications!

Mobile AC

HC

Domestic

Ref.

CO2,

HC HC

AC

CO2/

HC

Foams

NH3

Industr.

Ref.

CO2

Comm.

Ref.

15.8.2012 Seite 6 Page 6

Baseline and Mitigation Strategy

for Thai RAC

-

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

4.500

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Mt

CO

2e

q

Other Foam

Stationary AC Mobile AC

Domestic refrigeration Commercial refrigeration

Refrigerated transport Industrial refrigeration

Global demand (mainly for AC) will drive

demand for refrigerants (unabated) )

AC demand

- more people

- moving in cities

- warm and humid climates

- warmer world

- more wealth

- more ACs,.....

Similar drivers for

- commercial refrigeration

- industrial refrigeration

- mobile AC and refrig.

15.8.2012 Seite 7 Page 7

Baseline and Mitigation Strategy

for Thai RAC

AC Multi

Split

systems A5

AC Split

systems

A2

AC Split

systems A5

Industrial

A5

Industrial

A2

… and often they make better economics!

World 2020 Scenario

15.8.2012 Seite 8 Page 8

Baseline and Mitigation Strategy

for Thai RAC

Strong reduction possible … to a large extent

without additional costs to the society

-

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027

Mt C

O2eq

HFC

cons

umpt

ion

BAU t CO2e RED t CO2e

15.8.2012 Seite 9 Page 9

Baseline and Mitigation Strategy

for Thai RAC

-

500

1.000

1.500

2.000

2.500

3.000

3.500

4.000

4.500

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Mt

CO

2e

q

• Room AC China/ India

(HC R290)

• Central Chiller Mauritius (NH3)

HPMP XPS Foam Sector Plan China

(HC, CO2)

… addressing alternative solutions in key

countries and subsectors ..

• Mobile AC – South Africa

- trans. Refrigeration (CO2)

• Commercial Refrigeration – SA

(NH3, CO2)

• Domestic Refrigeration –

Swaziland (HC)

15.8.2012 Seite 10 Page 10

Baseline and Mitigation Strategy

for Thai RAC

Moving from demonstration projects to sectoral

approaches

Sector development CFC HCFC HFC LOW GWP + EE applications and systems

International Cooperation

Financial Cooperation

Economic Cooperation

Capacity building/

NAMAs

Management/

Support

Networks

• Strategy development

• Institutional building

• Pilot projects

• Standards/ labelling

• Qualification/

training

• Technology transfer/

partnerships

(R&C, PPP, JV, ... )

• Institutional partner-

ships/ universities

• Co-Financing

• MRV

• Public relations

• Dissemination of

results

15.8.2012 Seite 11 Page 11

Baseline and Mitigation Strategy

for Thai RAC

Overcoming the barriers

Financial Technical Institutional

Refrigeration

and AC

- ODP

- CO2 eq

- Energy

Consumption

15.8.2012 Seite 12 Page 12

Baseline and Mitigation Strategy

for Thai RAC

The Funding challenge

$1.334 billion

$800 million

Required funding to meet

10% reductions for all Art.

5 countries in 2015

Expected

MLF

funding

(current

and next

replenish

ment)

Unavoidable, non-

incremental costs

Climate + Ozone

Benefits Additional

Financing for

non-

incremental

costs

Source: World Bank,

Geneva 2010

15.8.2012 Seite 13 Page 13

Baseline and Mitigation Strategy

for Thai RAC

The technology challenge

Technology Promote Natural

Refrigerat Applications

Technology transfer +

partnerships

Safety Make systems fully safe

Know How Transfer

Standards

Allow best climate solutions

International exchange of standards

15.8.2012 Seite 14 Page 14

Baseline and Mitigation Strategy

for Thai RAC

The Institutional Challenge

Montreal Protocol

• CFC and HCFC

• Effective conrols/ sectoral

• Effective financing (incremental costs)

• No CO2eq focus

UNFCCC

• Includes HFC

• No mechanism for HFC control

15.8.2012 Seite 15 Page 15

Baseline and Mitigation Strategy

for Thai RAC

CFC and HCFC phase-out under Montreal Protocol

+ effective ODP phase out

- Limited CO2eq impact of alternative systems

- No HFC yet

HFC under UNFCCC

- Reported not managed

- 8% growth New approach MP + NAMA

- Combined HCFC +HFC

+ ODP and CO2eq

+ Refrigerants and Systems

+ Sectoral + NAMAs

What is required towards a step change