The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2011 …cii-resource.com/cet/FBC-TUT8/Presentations/Pillot_Christophe.pdf · The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2016-2025

The Rechargeable

Battery Market and

Main Trends 2016-2025

Director, AVICENNE ENERGY

Christophe PILLOT

March 20th, 2017

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Presentation Outline • The rechargeable battery market in 2016 • The Li-ion battery value chain • Li-ion battery material market • Forecasts & conclusions

https://advancedautobat.com/conferences/automotive-battery-conference-Europe-2016/index.html

https://advancedautobat.com/conferences/automotive-battery-conference-Europe-2016/index.html


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The rechargeable battery market 2016-2025

March 20th, 2017 Fort Lauderdale, FL, USA

AGENDA

The market in 2016 by technology, applications & battery suppliers Li-ion components market & value chain

Raw materials market Supplier / customer relationship Raw material cost New entrants strategy Raw material road map 2000-2030

xEV market in 2016 xEV forecasts up to 2025 Industrial, stationary & ESS applications 2016-2025 Rechargeable battery market forecasts up to 2025

2


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AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO

HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTS

HEV powered by Lithium ion battery

forecasts from 2008 to 2016

EV sold, in million units, worldwide,

2010 - 2020

0

1

2

3

4

5

2010 2015 2020

Nu

mb

er o

f EV

so

ld w

orl

dw

ide

( M

illio

n)

Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011

3

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Mill

ion

HEV

po

we

red

by

LIB

IIT 2007

IIT 2008

IIT 2009

IIT 2010

AVICENNE 2007 REALITY

AAB (2012)

AVICENNE 2007-2012

ROLAND BERGER (2011)

IIT (MARCH 2010)

ROLAND BERGER (2012)

DEUTSCHE BANK (2012)

IIT (MARCH 2011)

AAB (2008)

AAB 2015


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THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY

DYNAMIC

0

1000

2000

3000

2000 2016

Mill

ion

Un

its

/ ye

ar

Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million)

Li-ion

NiMH

165 M Portable

PCs

195 M Tablets

0

100

200

300

400

2000 2016

Mill

ion

Un

its/

Ye

ar

Portable PC sold per Year (Million)

Li-ion

2,6

0,15

0

1

2

3

2000 2016

$/W

h

Li-ion 18650 cell price ($/Wh)

6 900

178 000

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

2000 2016

Ton

s

Tons of cathode active materials

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2017 4 2016: AVICENNE Estimation


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THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET

1990-2016

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

80 000

90 000

100 000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016

MW

h Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)

Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of industry

investments



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0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

450 000

500 000

MW

h

Others (Flow battery, NAS, …) Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lead Acid

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

19

90

19

95

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

16

MW

h


1990-2016 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share)



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1990-2016

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

19

902

000

20

052

010

20

1320

142

015

20

16

Bill

ion

US

$

Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)

Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lead Acid

65 BILLION US$ in 2016 – Pack level1

5% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (2000-2016)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1990

2000

2005

2010

2013

2014

2015

2016

Bill

ion

US$

OTHERS

AUTOMOTIVE

INDUSTRIAL

E-BIKES

POWER TOOLS

PORTABLE

SLI

SLI: Start light and ignition batteries for cars, truck, moto, boat etc…

PORTABLE: concumer electronics (cellular, portable PCs, tablests, Camera, …), data collection & handy terminals,

POWER Tools: power tools but also gardening tools

1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included

INDUSTRIAL • MOTIVE: Forklift (95%), others • STATIONARY: Telecom, UPS, Energy Storage System, Medical, Others

(Emergency Lighting, Security, Railroad Signaling,, Diesel Generator Starting, Control & Switchgear,

AUTOMOTIVE: HEV, P-HEV, EV OTHERS: Medical: wheelchairs, medical carts, medical devices (surgical power tools, mobile instrumentation (x-ray, ultrasound, EKG/ECG, large oxygen concentrators



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IN 2016: US $ 65 BILLION

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000EV, E-Bus

Portable

SLI

Others

Marine

Medical devices

Seismic

ESS

UPS

Telecom

Other Motive

Forklift

Power Tools

E-Bikes

1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

Lead Acid LIB Others

Other Applications

Marine

Medical devices

Seismic

ESS

UPS

Telecom

Other Motive

Forklift

Power Tools

E-Bikes

US $ 22,8

Billion for

“other”

applications



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WORLDWIDE BATTERY SALES BY

CHEMISTRY, UNITS, 1995-2015

The worldwide rechargeable battery

market, Million cells, 1995-2016

Which cell are we talking about?

Front Edge Technology, Inc

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

19

95

19

97

199

9

20

01

20

03

20

05

20

07

20

09

20

11

20

13

20

15

Mill

ion

cel

ls

NiCd NiMH Li-ion GS Yuasa International / Lithium Energy Japan



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CHEMISTRY, MWH, 1995-2016

-

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

80 000

90 000

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

MW

h

Li-ion

NiMH

NiCd

The worldwide rechargeable battery market, in volume,

MWh, 1995-2016

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2017

2006-2016 (CAGR): +17%

NiCd: -3% per year

NiMH: +1% per year

Li-ion: +22% per year

10 2016: AVICENNE Estimation


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CHEMISTRY, M$, 1995-2016

-

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

M$

Li-ion

NiMH

NiCd

The worldwide rechargeable battery market, in value, M$,

1995-2016 (1)

(1) Cell level

2006 – 2016 CAGR):+13%

NiCd: - 6% per year

NiMH: + 2% per year

Li-ion: +16% per year



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EACH BATTERY TECHNOLOGY HAS ITS

SPECIFIC ABSOLUTE ADVANTAGES Lead Acid

Nickel Cadmium

NiCd Nickel Metal Hydride

NiMH Conventional Laminate

Lithium-Ion

...On

Advantage of ...

• energy density • Operating temperature • Self discharge rate • Reliability (progressive

extinction)

• Gravimetric energy density

• Volumetric energy density • Self discharge rate

• Gravimetric energy density • Volumetric energy density • Voltage output • Self discharge rate

• Higher cyclability • Voltage output • Price

• Gravimetric energy density

• Volumetric energy density

• Gravimetric energy density • Volumetric energy density • Voltage output • Self discharge rate

• Higher cyclability • Voltage output • Price

• Operating temperature range

• Higher cyclability • Self discharge rate • Price

• energy density • Operating temperature • Higher cyclability • Voltage output • Self discharge rate

• Gravimetric energy density • Volumetric energy density • Self discharge rate • Design characteristics

• Gravimetric energy density • Volumetric energy density • Self discharge rate • Design characteristics

• Gravimetric energy density • Volumetric energy density • Operating temperature • Self discharge rate • Design characteristics

Lead Acid

Nickel Cadmium NiCd

Nickel Metal Hydride NiMH

• Higher cyclability • Price • Safety • Recyclability


• Higher cyclability • Price • Safety • Recyclability

• Price • Safety • Discharge rate • Recyclability

• Higher cyclability • Price



• Volumetric energy density • Higher cyclability • Price

• Gravimetric energy density • Volumetric energy density • Design characteristics • Safety • Price


• Higher cyclability

Conventional

Laminate Lith

ium

-Io

n

• energy density • Self discharge rate • Voltage output • Design characteristics



• Price

• Volumetric energy density

• Gravimetric energy density • Volumetric energy density • Self discharge rate • Voltage output

Absolute advantages



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JAPANESE, CHINESE & KOREAN

MARKET SHARE Japanese market share (value) decreasing: from 84 % of the market

in 2000 to < 30% in 2016

13 (1) Excluding lead acid batteries

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

Battery(1) market by country

JapanKoreaChina

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

LIB market by country

JapanKoreaChina

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2017 2016: AVICENNE Estimation


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NICD BATTERY: MARKET SHARE IN 2016

IN VOLUME WORLDWIDE

SANYO-PANASONIC

39% SAFT 6%

GOLD PEAK 4%

BYD 36%

OTHERS 15%

The worldwide NiCd battery

market Company market share

in 2016 in volume – 830 M cells

SANYO-PANASONIC is leading

the market Companies Million cells

SANYO-PANASONIC 320

SAFT 50

GOLD PEAK 40

BYD 300

OTHERS 120

TOTAL 830

Fumio Ohtsubo (Panasonic) & Seiichiro Sano (Sanyo) January 8th, 2012 SANYO-

PANASONIC 58%

SAFT 8%

GOLD PEAK 4%

BYD 24%

OTHERS 6%

In volume

In value

14 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2017 2016: AVICENNE Estimation


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NICD IN 2016

MAIN APPLICATION: POWER TOOLS 830 M cells – 2250 MWh

526 M$1

CAGR 2006/2016

-3% per year in volume

-6% per year in value

All the applications are decreasing

Competition with NiMH & Li-ion

New application (?)

Energy storage

ABB Inc., Fairbanks, Alaska, 27 MW/15 minutes

Note: 1 Portable applications, power tools and emergency lighting only:

industrial application as well as energy storage are excluded

Power Tools 71%

Security lighting

11% Others 18%

NiCd by application worldwide, % in value, 2015

15 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2017 2016: AVICENNE Estimation


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NIMH BATTERY: MARKET SHARE IN

2016 WORLDWIDE

8%

24%

16% 4%

11%

17%

20%

The worldwide NiMH battery market

Company market share in 2016 in

volume – 1020 M cells

16 Note: Market in value at the cell level – 1,45 B$ at the pack level

Note: 1 PEVE: Primearth EV Energy (PEVE) The company was known as Panasonic EV Energy Co until 2 June 2010. The company was formed in 1996 as a joint venture between Toyota and Panasonic, with Panasonic holding 60% of the capital. Panasonic sold 40.5% of the company to Toyota. PEVE is the supplier of the NiMH battery packs for Toyota’s hybrids, as well as for Honda (Civic hybrid and first generation Insight) hybrids. The company also provides the NiMH prismatic battery modules for the General Motors

² Japan's Sanyo Electric Co sold part of its battery operations to FDK Corp a Fujitsu Ltd unit, for 6.4 billion yen ($70 million) to satisfy antitrust regulators ahead of its planned takeover by Panasonic Corp at the end of 2009.

OTHERS

1

62%

4%

12%

8%

5% 9%

OTHERS

1

The worldwide NiMH battery market

Company market share in 2016 in

value – 1150 M$



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NIMH IN 2016

MAIN APPLICATION: HYBRID VEHICLES 1 020 M cells – 2 700 MWh

1.15 B$(1)

CAGR 2006/2016

+2% per year in Volume

+2% per year in value

17

(1) Cell based market – 1,45 B$ at the pack level

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

% o

f H

EV b

atte

ry in

NIM

H r

eve

nu

es

M$

NiMH battery market worldwide in value % for HEV application

Others HEV % of HEV in NiMH sales

Portables, retails 30%

HEV 70%

NiMH battery by applications, worldwide, % in value, 2016



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LI-ION BATTERY: MARKET SHARE IN

2015/2016 WORLDWIDE

The worldwide Li-ion battery market

Company market share in 2016 in volume

(small cells only) 5675 M cells

18

Others for Small cells: Chinese suppliers like First new Energy, Zhuoneng, Tenpower, DLG… For Auto market: CALB, Microvast, Guoxuan, Optimum Nano, Wanxiang, and many others

(1) Cell level. LIB battery pack market: > 20 B$ in 2015 and 24,4 B$ estimated for 2016

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2016

The worldwide Li-ion battery market

Company market share in 2015 in value(1)

– 18,4 B$ (Estimated at B$ 20,6 in 2016)

24%

7%

8%

19%

9%

5%

9%

3% 9% 13%

5%

16%

13% 6%

9%

6%

19%

Others Others


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MAJOR LI-ION MANUFACTURERS

YEARLY PRODUCTION 2001-2016 Samsung SDI & LG Chem are growing very fast

Panasonic acquired Sanyo in Dec 2009


19

SONY

Panasonic

BYD

LG Chem

SDI

LISHEN

BAK

ATL

COSLIGHT 0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Mill

ion

cel

ls /

Yea

r


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CYLINDRICAL LI-ION BATTERY (SMALL CELLS)

Cylindrical LIB market Company market share in

2016 in volume: 2330 Million cells (+6%)

SANYO-PANASONIC, SDI & LG will share the

market

20 Note: 1 ppm: piece per minutes Source: Interviews with LG, SAMSUNG, SANYO-PANASONIC, AVICENNE Energy Analyses 2016

Key success factor • Production speed (-> cost)

• Performances

• Customer (Portable PCs) access

LG

SDI

PANASONIC

0 200 400 600 800 1000Ah / min

Production Speed: 18650 – 2,8Ah cells

220 ppm

300 ppm

200 ppm1

-

1 000

2 000

3 000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Mill

ion

ce

lls

18650 cells for Portable PC & others 18650 for TESLAAssumptions: TESLA sold 35 kEV in 2014, 55 kEV in 2015 and 100 kEV in 2016

Cylindrical cells (M) by mfg.

-

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

PANASONIC-SANYO PANASONIC - TESLA Sony SDI LG Others

Others

In 2016, TESLA demand represent more than 20% of the Cylindrical cells demand

Panasonic for


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PRISMATIC LI-ION BATTERY (SMALL CELLS)

Prismatic LIB market Company

market share in 2016 in volume:

980 Million cells (-8%)

Prismatic cells (M) by Mfg. :

SAMSUNG is leading

21 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2016

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016

Panasonic-Sanyo SDI LG BYD LISHEN BAK OTHERS

Others


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LI-LAMINATE BATTERY (SMALL CELLS)

Laminate battery market Company

market share in 2016 in volume:

2 350 Million cells (+7%)

Pouch cells (M) by Mfg. SONY, ATL

and SAMSUNG are leading this

market

22 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2016

15%

23%

17%

15%

8%

15%

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Panasonic-Sanyo Sony SDI

LG BYD LISHEN

BAK ATL Others

Others


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LI-ION IN 2016 - MAIN APPLICATIONS

23

(1) Cell level Others: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes… Source: AVICENNE Energy 2016

+78 000 MWh - 20 600 M$ (1)

5 675 M small cells

CAGR 2006/2016

+22 % per year in Volume

-

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

80 000

90 000

200

020

01

200

220

03

200

420

05

200

620

07

200

820

09

201

020

11

201

220

13

201

420

15

201

6

M W

h

Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2015

Others

Industrial,ESS

Auto, E-busChina

Auto, e-busExcl. China

Electronicdevices

Phones 17%

Portable PC 66%

Portable Electronics

17%

2000: < 2GWh

2016: 78 GWh

Electronic devices

40%

Auto, E-bus Excl. China

13%

Auto, E-bus China 30%

Industrial, ESS 6%

Others 11%


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LI-ION IN 2016 - MAIN APPLICATIONS CAGR 2006/2016


Cell: +15,5% per year in value

Pack: +16% per year in value

24 Source: AVICENNE Energy 2016

-

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

20

052

006

20

072

008

20

092

010

20

1120

12

20

132

014

20

152

016

M$

Li-ion cells

M$, Worldwide, 2005-2016

Others

Industrial,ESS

Auto, E-busChina


Electronicdevices -

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

201

42

01

52

01

6

M$

Li-ion Packs M$, Worldwide, 2000-2016

Others: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes…

+78 000 MWh - 20 600 M$ (1)

5 675 M small cells


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25

CELLULAR PHONES MARKET

> 2 000 M LIB CELLS IN 2015

NOKIA

MOTOROLA / LENOVO

SAMSUNG

LG

APPLE

Huawei

Xiomi

0

100

200

300

400

500

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

M c

ellu

lar

ph

on

es/

year

NOKIA MOTOROLA / LENOVO

SAMSUNG LG

APPLE Huawei

Xiomi

+2000 M cell phones sold in 2015 (+4% CAGR)

Source: AVICENNE Energy 2016

Samsung Galaxy & I-phone change the game

2015 > 2000 M Phones

2012 1630 M Phones

Pris. 45%

Lam. 55%

LIB cell format (Volume) 2015

Nokia 6%

Motorola 4%

Samsung 20%

LG 4%

APPLE 11%

ZTE 3%

Others 44%

Huawei 5%

Xiaomi 3%

Nokia 28%

Motorola 3%

Sony-Ericsson

2%

Samsung 21%

LG 6%

APPLE 5%

RIM 3%

ZTE 4%

Others 28%


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CELLULAR PHONES/LIB SUPPLIERS

RELATIONSHIPS 2015 Cellular Phone makers / battery suppliers

relation


Smartphones ie laminate LIB increasing

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

iPodiPhone

IPadMac

TOTAL

ATL SDI LG SONY LISHEN PANASONIC

APPLE needs in 2015

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Nokia

Samsung

LG Chem

APPLE

ZTE

XIAOMI

Panasonic Sony SDI LGC

-

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

2 000

2 200

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

M c

ells

/ Y

ear

Battery market for cellular phones worldwide, 2000-2015, in Volume

(M cells)

LIB La.

LIB Pr.

NiMH

150

110

250

M cells

15

525


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27

PORTABLE PC MARKET

960 M LIB CELLS IN 2015 165 M portable PCs sold - 2014/2015: -5% Market outlook 2015

Note: Excluding Tablets & convertible or hybrid portable PC + tablets

Uncertain macro & weakness in both consumer & commercial growth

No sign for end-customer demand recovery

Decrease due to cannibalization by tablets

Small overall decrease only thanks to Emerging market growth

Increase of Ultra-thin Portable PCs

Cyl. 78%

Lam. 22%


-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

0

50

100

150

200

250

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

M P

ort

able

PC

/ye

ar

Dell HP ToshibaAcer Lenovo AsusAPPLE Others Growth/years

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

% o

f P

ort

able

PC

so

ld

16in

15in

14in

13in

11-12in

Netbook



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28

TABLET MARKET

> 500 M CELLS IN 2015

0

50

100

150

200

250

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

M t

able

ts /

year

Others

Samsung

Apple

Tablets sold (Million) - Apple leadership Market Outlook 2015

Decrease in 2015 (-10%), and 2016 (-6%) Market driven by

mature market (77%) consumer market (90%)

Apple (27%), Samsung (17%), Asus (5%), Acer, Lenovo, Amazon are the key competitors Increasing part of convertible (Tablets+PC): 16,6 M in 2015 (8 % of the market) Source: Gartner, IDC, Display search

Others 2015: Asus 8 M, Lenovo 11 M, Amazon 5,2 M…

ASP tablets drop From $636 in Q4 2010 to < 300 $ in Q4 2015

636 607 616 550 522 508 500 480 449

405 370 345 335 330 325 320 315 310 305 300 295 200

400

600

800

Q4 2010 Q4 2011 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015Ave

rage

Pri

ce (

US

$)

iPad Non i-Pad Total

Lam. 100%




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29

POWER TOOL MARKET

LIB DEMAND IS GROWING

0

20

40

60

80

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

Power Tools (Million/year)

Power tools market is growing Power tools suppliers

TTI 13%

B&D 14%

Bosch 15% Makita

12% Sumec

9%

Metabo 7%

OTHERS 30%

Power tools maker market share (2015)

Others: Jingding (3.6 M), Panasonic (0.5 M), Hitachi (2.4 M), Hilti (2M)…

Power tools maker battery choice

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Bosch

TTI

Sumec

Jingding

HILTI

M power tools

NiCd

NiMH

Li-ion

LIB penetration in power tools

0%

20%

40%

60%

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

% of power tools equiped with LIB

Cyl.; 100%




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30

LIB BATTERY SHORT TERM TRENDS

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

> 3Ah

2,8Ah

2.6Ah

2.4Ah

2.2Ah

2.0Ah

1.8Ah

<=1.6Ah

18650 battery capacity* Cellular phones battery capacity

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

> 1800 mAh

1600 mAh

1400 mAh

1200 mAh

1000 mAh

800 mAh

*1C rate or laptop type 18650 cells

Cylindrical/Prismatic/Laminates in 2016

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Cylindrical Prismatic Laminates

Others

TESLA

E-bikes

Power Tools

Tablets

Portable PCs

Cellular

Cylindrical/Prismatic/Laminates

-

1 000

2 000

3 000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

M c

ells

/ye

ar

Li-ion Cyl Li-ion Pr

Laminate Li-ion Cyl excl Tesla

Li-ion cylindrical: “Tesla impact”: 180 M cells in 2013, 300M in 2014, 430 M in 2015 and 600 M cells in 2016 (Avicenne Assumptions)



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31

BATTERY PRICE IS DECREASING In 10 Years 80% price decreasing despite a

fluctuating Co price

Average LIB cell price ($/Wh)

Source: UMICORE, march 2011

18650 oversupply ratio is decreasing thanks to

TESLA

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

-

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

Ove

r su

pp

ly R

atio

M c

ells

/Y

ear

Standard Demand TESLA

Production Capacity Oversupply ratio

-

0,20

0,40

0,60

0,80

1,00

2005 2010 2015

Cylindrical Prismatic Laminate

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1Q

09

4Q

09

3Q

10

2Q

11

1Q

12

4Q

12

3Q

13

2Q

14

1Q

15

4Q

15

M c

ells

/m

on

th

BAK

ATL

Lishen

E-One

LG

SDI

Cylindrical Production capacity 09/11: from 150 to

250 M cells/month



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LIB: THE BIGGEST PART OF THE COST

IS RAW MATERIALS RAW MATERIALS ACCOUNT FOR 50 TO 70% OF LIB CELLS BUSINESS

RAW MATERIAL COST IMPACT DRASTICALY ON THE BATTERY MAKERS PROFIT

32

Note: Average mix of cylindrical, prismatic & laminate cells

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%P

rod

uct

ion

co

st

LIB Cost structure for TESLA & 40 Ah EV pouch cell NMC

Operating profit

Proces Yield

Depreciation

SGA, overhead

R&D

Utility

Labor

Material

Cathode cost 22%

Anode cost 6%

Electrolyte 6%

Separator 7%

Other materials

11%

Depreciation 14%

Direct labor 4%

Energy, utilities

4%

R&D 6%

Sales & Adm 3%

Overheads 3%

Warranty 3%

Margin 7%

Cell Process Yield, Scraps

4%

Average cost structure of Li-ion cell in 2016

Sources: AVICENNE ENERGY 2017


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LI-ION VALUE CHAIN – MARKET DEMAND

33

CATHODE

184 OOO T in 2016

Revenues: 4 B$

CAGR 06/16: +22%

ANODE

>88 000 T

Revenues: 0,9 B$

CAGR 06/16: +12%

ELECTROLYTE

>86 000 T

Revenues: 1,1 B$

CAGR 06/16 : 19%

SEPARATOR

1 300 M m²

Revenues: 1,3 B$

CAGR 06/16 : 18%

CELL

MANUFACTURERS

Revenues:

20,6 B$

Gross margin:

<10%

ANCILLARY

Revenues: 1,3 B$

PACK

MANUFACTURERS

Revenues:

>24,4 B$

Gross margin:

<10%



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34

LIB CATHODE MATERIAL

Cathode raw materials market

LiCoO2 (LCO)

LiMn2O4 (LMO)

LiMPO4(1) (LFP)

Li[NixMnyCoz]O2 - NMC

Li[NixCoyAlz]O2 – NCA Source: SANYO, March 2011

(1) M= Fe or Mn

Source: LME

0

50

100

150

$/k

g

Ni & Co price 2003-2015

Ni

Co

Source: Mitsubishi, Batteries 2012 – Nice ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15


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NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD:

CATHODE ACTIVE

MATERIALS NEEDS Cathode active materials for LIB in Tons, 2000-

2016 (Demand)

(…)

LEADERS:

39 307

47 556

15 918 15 668

65 709

-

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

16

Ton

s LFP

LMO

NCA

NMC

LCO

Rationales

In 2016, LCO is used in pouch cells for electronic devices: smartphones, tablets, ultra thin portable PCs

NMC is used in other electronic devices & xEV

NCA is used by 18650 Panasonic cells in Tesla cars and as a blend with LMO in other xEV

LMO is mostly used as a blend with NMC in xEV

LFP is used in xEV, e-buses in China and for industrial applications

35


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36

LCO DEMAND: CAGR 2015-2025:+5% LCO demand details LCO Offer in 2015

LCO summary of outlook


LCO Price forecasts

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

Ton

s

LCO: Tablets, Smartphones

Others

Industrials

E-bus

xEV China

xEV

Power Tools, E-bikes

Other Electronics

Portable PCs

Smart Phones, Tablets

Internal 2% Nichia

9% Umicore

15%

B&M 10%

Easpring 6%

Reshine 15%

L&F 15%

Other China

8%

Others 2%

Shan Shan 9%

PULEAD 9%

19

29

19 21 21

14

9

7 6 5

0

10

20

30

40

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

$ /

kg

Material Others

Demand: LCO was used in most of the pouch cell lithium ion batteries for electronic devices like smartphones & tablets. Most OEM (Samsung, Apple, etc..) confirm that LCO will be the first choice for the future. Then, for portable PCs, penetration of LCO will increase thanks to thinner high end portable PC using pouch cells. LCO will not be used in large format cells where NMC is preferred.

Price: if the metal price are stable from 2016 to 2025, small cost decrease thanks to scale economy. Suppliers: Umicore, L&F, and main Chinese (Pulead, ShanShan, Reshine) will keep the lead. Not sure that Nichia will stay at the top.

Assumption: 2016-2025 : Co price stable @ 28$/kg – Lithium carbonate stable @ 10 $/kg


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37

NMC DEMAND: CAGR 2015-2025: +15% NMC demand details NMC Offer in 2015

NMC evolution


NMC Price forecasts

Assumption: 2016-2025 : Co price stable @ 28$/kg – Lithium carbonate stable @ 10 $/kg - – Ni stable @ 12$/kg

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

2010 2015 2020 2025

Ton

s

NMC: Electronics, EV, others Others

Industrials

E-bus

xEV China

xEV


Other Electronics

Portable PCs


Nichia 9%

Umicore 15%

Internal 17%

L&F 6%

ShanShan 11%

KLK 2%

Others 12%

Jinhe 9%

Xiamen Tungsten

8%

Kelong 4%

Easpring 4%

Tianjiao 3%

20

30

40

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024

$ /

kg

NMC 532 NMC 622 NMC 811 NMC 111

0%

50%

100%

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

811

622

532

111

Demand: Except xEV in China, NMC is driven by xEV: Nissan will switch from NCA-LMO to NMC for example. Then, Toyota, Mitsubishi, Honda all choose NMC. From 2012 to 2016 the clear trend was to switch from LMO-NMC 75/25 to LMO-NMC 25/75. LG, Panasonic and Samsung agreed that NMC will be the 1st choice for xEV first in Japan, US and Europe, and then, in 2020 in China. Price will decrease thanks to process manufacturing improvement. Suppliers: Umicore, L&F, and main Chinese (ShanShan) will keep the lead. LG and Samsung will outsource more (Internal part will decrease). As new entrant, BASF try to be on this market since 2011. There market share may increase.

NMC summary of outlook

ELEC

AUTO

IND OTH


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38

NCA DEMAND: CAGR 2015-2025: +11% NCA demand details NCA Offer in 2015

NCA evolution


NCA Price forecasts

Assumption: 2016-2025 : Co price stable @ 28$/kg – Lithium carbonate stable @ 10 $/kg - – Ni stable @ 12$/kg

Demand: NCA are also used in electronic devices, in prismatic and cylindrical cells. Main NCA users in electronic devices are Panasonic, Sony and Samsung. They will keep using NCA but LCO will stay the first choice. Panasonic and Samsung confirm that they supply more and more power tools mfg with NCA (from 15% in 2015 to 25% in 2025). Other NCA usage is of course for the TESLA. We do not think TESLA will switch for another technology in the next years.

Price decrease thanks to better mfg. process

Supplier: Sumitomo will keep the lead thanks to Panasonic / Tesla. Toda Kogyo market share will probably increase thanks to BASF partnership.

NCA summary of outlook

ELEC

AUTO

IND

OTH

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

2010 2015 2020 2025

Ton

s

NCA: Tesla Others

Industrials

E-bus

xEV China

xEV


Other Electronics

Portable PCs


Toda Kogyo 16%

Sumitomo 58%

Nihon Kagaku Sangyo

13%

Ecopro 5%

Others 8%

0

10

20

30

40

50

2010 2015 2020 2025

$ /

kg

Material Others

0%

50%

100%

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Ni 90%

Ni 87%

Ni 83%


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39

LFP DEMAND: CAGR 2015-2025:+8% LFP demand details LFP Offer in 2015

LFP summary of outlook


LFP Price forecasts

LFP demand is driven by xEV, E-Bus in China, e-bikes and Stationary application. Chinese industrial agreed that E-bikes, e-bus and stationary app will use LFP for the next 10 years. The cost and the life time are the main criteria and Energy density is not so important. Then, Chinese xEV mfg. (BYD, Kandi, Zotye, Baic, Chery…) told us that they will switch from LFP to NMC.

Price: Process manufacturing cost will decrease. Pulead forecast price @ 11-12$/kg in 2025.

Suppliers: Pulead will probably increase market share thanks to new contract with BYD and others Chinese battery mfg.

Assumption: 2016-2025 : Lithium carbonate stable @ 10 $/kg

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

2010 2015 2020 2025

Ton

s

LFP: Industrial, E-Bus Others

Industrials

E-bus

xEV China

xEV


Other Electronics

Portable PCs


INTERNAL 36%

JOHNSON MATTHEY

8% ALEEES 7%

STL 8%

Pulead 9%

Zhuoneng 8%

Tatung 3%

Others 21%

Internal: BYD, Hefei Guoxuan High Tech Power source (Gxgk), Huanyu Power Source Co., Ltd., LG, A123 (Wanxiang EV Co., Ltd), Hi Power - Others: Hunan Haorun Technology, Henan Tianke, Likai , Tiehu Energy and many others

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2010 2015 2020 2025

$ /

kg

Material Others

AUTO

E-BUS IND

OTH


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40

LMO DEMAND: CAGR 2015-2025:+10% LMO demand details LMO Offer in 2015

LMO summary of outlook


LMO Price forecasts

Demand: LMO is almost never the first choice for Lithium ion cathode. But, LMO is low cost and bring stability to the cathode. LMO is used in power tools and will be used, blended with NMC. So, for the future, LMO demand will be mostly driven by NMC/LMO blended cathode used in EV worldwide, EV in China to replace LFP (2020) and later E-bus in China (2025).

Price: LMO price decreased a lot from 2010 to 2015. We think we almost achieve the lowest possible level.

Suppliers: Most of the supply will stay in China (ShanShan, Qyanyun, …).

Assumption: Lithium carbonate price 2016 – 2025 stable @ 10 $/kg

AUTO

E-BUS

IND

OTH

0

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

2010 2015 2020 2025

Ton

s

LMO: AUTO Others

Industrials

E-bus

xEV China

xEV


Other Electronics

Portable PCs


Nichia 5%

Nippon Denko

4% Yuan Yuan

5%

JGC 12%

Qyanyun 14%

ShanShan 9%

Others 18%

Reshine 9%

Mitsui 12%

POSCO ESM 12%

0

5

10

15

2010 2015 2020 2025

$ /

kg

Material Others


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CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIAL

FORECASTS 2000-2025 Cathode active materials

2000-2025 - Tons

Cathode active materials in 2016

> 180 000 Tons

41

ASSUMPTIONS:

Portable devices: 2015-2025: +6% per year in volume

HEV: 4,8 M HEV/year in 2020 - 35% LIB, 6,8 M HEV in 2025 90% LIB

P-HEV: 0,4 M P-HEV/year + 0,5 M in China in 2020, 0,6 M in 2025 + 1M in China, 100% LIB

EV: 0,6 M EV/year in 2020 + 1M in China, 1M/year + 1,5 M in China in 2025, 100% LIB

Industrial & stationary: 2015-2025: +16% per year

Assumption: Tesla keep NCA chemistry and have a relative success (200 000 EV sold per year in 2025 – TESLA forecast 500 000)

LCO 21%

NMC 26% NCA

9% LMO 8%

LFP 36%

Cathode active materials in 2025

400 000 Tons

LCO 16%

NMC 41%

NCA 10%

LMO 9%

LFP 24% 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

-

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

450 000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Ton

s

LCO NMC NCA LMO LFP China (%)


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42

ANODE ACTIVE MATERIALS

> 88 000 TONS IN 2016 LIB Anode Materials

Source: Hitachi Chemical

Source: Sanyo, March 2013

LIB Anode market, (Tons)

LIB Anode Materials

Source: A. Jossen, IRES 2007

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500


0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

To

ns

LTO

Si or Sn Type

Amorphous Carbon

Artificial Graphite

Natural Graphite


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ANODE FOR LIB IN 2016

43

Natural graphite become a commodity

Source: Hitachi Chemical

(…)

NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD: LEADERS:

Hard Carbon Soft Carbon Graphite

Capacity (/g) 400 mAh/g 250 mAh/g 325-375 mAh/g

Capacity (/cc)

++ 0 +

Power ++ + 0

Stability ++ + 0

Cyclability ++ + 0

Precursors Petroleum Pitch, Resin,

cellulose, wood,

coconuts…

Petroleum coke

Natural or petroleum

coke

COST 2015->2020

25 -> 20 $/kg 20->15 $/kg 7-13-> 6-10 $/kg

SUPPLIERS KUREHA HITACHI HITACHI BTR…


Natural Graphite

46%

Artificial Graphite

43%

Amorphous 7%

Si or Sn Type 2%

LTO 2%

Carbon for LIB anodes by type (2016)


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44

NATURAL GRAPHITE: CAGR 2015-2025: +3% Natural Graphite demand details NG Offer in 2016

NG summary of outlook NG Price forecasts

Demand: small growth because new app. Need artificial Gr. This demand may change if the price decrease is more important for NG compare to AG. Price: The price will decrease fast because the supply is huge. Already over supply in China ( Capacity: BTR 30 000 Tons, Zichen: 10 000 Tons, Shinzom: 10 000 Tons, Sinuo: 8 000 Tons, Qingdao: 8 000 Tons, Jianxi Zhentuo: 7000 Tons, Kimwan: 5 000 Tons…). Then, a lot of new projects in China and Canada: Focus Graphite > 40000 Tons/year (2020*), Northern Graphite > 20 000 Tons/year (after 2018*) Syrah Resources Ltd. > 80 000 Tons (2020*)

Suppliers: BTR and new Chinese (Zichen thanks to ATL, - Shinzom thanks to BYD, CATL – Sinuo etc…). New entrant like Focus Graphite, Northern Graphite, or Syrah Resources Ltd. May change the market share in the future

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Ton

s

HITACHI 11%

Shenzhen BTR 49% Mitsubishi

16%

Nippon Carbon

4%

POSCO Chemtech

4%

Others 16%

CHINA 65%

OTHERS 35%

Typical Product D50= 16 mm 350 mAh/g

5% irreversible cap. BET: 1m²/g

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2010 2015 2020 2025

$ /

kg


* Subject to financing


[email protected]



45

ARTIFICIAL GR.:CAGR 2015-2025: +15% Artificial Graphite demand details Artificial Graphite Offer in 2016

Artificial Graphite summary of outlook


Artificial Graphite Price forecasts Demand: The demand will increase fast thanks to xEV market. Long life time requirement involve high level of purity and high consistancy, difficult to achieve with Natural Graphite.

Price will decrease fast thanks to better process efficiency, new process

Supply: Thanks to the best quality, Hitachi will keep the lead but Chinese main suppliers market share will increase (ShanShan mostly).

Production Capacity: Hitachi: 15 000 Tons, ShanShan: 15 000 Tons project in Lingang Park (Shanghai) to add 20 000 Tons/year, Mitsubishi: 7 000 Tons, JFE: 7000 Tons, Showa Denko: 3000 Tons

0

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

140 000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Ton

s HITACHI 31%

Shanshan 38%

Mitsubishi 9%

JFE 11%

Showa Denko

5%

Others 6% CHINA

45% OTHERS 55%

Typical Product D50= 20 mm 365 mAh/g

1-5% irreversible cap. BET: 0,5m²/g

0

5

10

15

20

25

2010 2015 2020 2025

$ /

kg


[email protected]



LIB SEPARATOR MARKET 2016

LIB separator market, M$ - CAGR 2006/2016: +13% Supplier, market share in 2016

46

Others: Shanghai Energy, Newmi, JGP, TDK, In house (BYD), Mingzhu, Tianfeng, Yiteng, BNE…

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

M$ Mm²

ASAHI 17%

TORAY 15%

SUMITOMO 6%

ENTEK 4%

SK 9% CELGARD

8%

UBE 6%

Senior 3%

Green 3%

Others 19%

Jinhui 4%

W-Scope 6%


In February 2015, ASAHI announced that they will acquire all Polypore shares in the Energy Storage

segment: Asahi Kasei to pay around $2.2billion to purchase Polypore’s battery separator business


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ELECTROLYTE SUPPLIERS/CUSTOMERS

> 86 000 TONS IN 2016 LIB electrolyte market, Tons,

CAGR 2006/2016: +26%

LIB electrolyte supplier, market share in

2016

47

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016

Ton

s

Portables electronics Power Tools

E-bikes Automotive (12v, HEV, PHEV, EV)

Auto & E-Bus China Industrial

Note: (1) GTHR: Zhangjiagang Guotai-Huarong

Ube 4% Mitsubishi

12%

In-House 9%

Tomiyama 3%

PANAX-ETEC 8%

Zhangjiagang Guotai-

Huarong 15%

Mitsui 3%

Jinniu 8%

Capchem 14%

Shanshan 8%

Soulbrain 5%

TINCI 6%

Others 5%



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BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS

2016-2025

Portable PCs, net-book, Ultra-book Cellular Phones, Smart-phones Tablets Camcorders Cordless Tools, Gardening tools Digital Camera Games, MP3 Cordless Phones Shavers, Toothbrush, RC Cars E-bikes Power tools Security lighting Vehicles: HEV, P-HEV, EV Industrial motive (forklift) Industrial stationary (UPS, Telecom) Medical Energy Storage (Small / large)

Applications covered Parameters analysis

48

Main segment trends

Power need trends (volume, weight, capacity, running time)

Penetration rate for each Chemistry, each form factor,

2016 -2025 Forecasts

OEM strategies and positions

Main drivers & limiters


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49

PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES

FORECASTS 2010-2025

-

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000 OTHERS

INDIA

ASIA

CHINA

JAPAN

EUROPE

USA

Cellular phones demand (M Units)

CAGR 2010-2025: +4%

Cellular Phones market Drivers

Emergent market

Renewal ratio increase

Smartphone penetration increase

LIB cells for cellular phones trends

Laminates ratio increase

Increase of Thickness

Increase of >1400 mAh capacity

LIB cells demand 2010-2025

Polymer penetration: 20% -> 75%

0%20%40%60%80%

100%

Polymer

Prismatic

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses


[email protected]



50

PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES

FORECASTS 2010-2025

0

100

200

Emerging

Mature

Portable PCs demand (M Units)

2016-2025 – Almost stable

Portable PCs market trends

Mature market stable or decreasing

Growth driven by Emerging market

Ultrabook is increasing

ASP decreasing (<499$ Portable PCs increase from 25% in 2010 to 40% in 2015

Excluding Tablets and convertibles (Tablets + PC) Source: IDC, Gartner, AVICENNE Energy

LIB cells for portable PCs trends

Thinner cells

Pouch cells penetration increasing from 7% in 2010 to 40% in 2025

> 2800 mAh for Premium/corporate

2.2 Ah for consumer, emerging market


LIB cells demand 2014-2025

Polymer penetration: 20% -> 40%

0%20%40%60%80%

100%

Laminate

Prismatic

Cylindrical

Cyl. 76%

Lam. 24%


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2025 LIB FORECASTS FOR PORTABLE

ELECTRONIC DEVICES

2000-2025 LIB market, MWh, by

application (3C)

2000-2025 LIB market, M cells,

by form factor (3C)

51

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

M c

ells

/yea

r

Li-P Li-ion Pr

Li-ion Cyl Takeshita - March 2013 (1)

(1) Source: Takeshita, Battery Japan 2013 BJ-3 conference Slide p 4 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses

CAGR 16-25: + 6%

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

20

00

2005

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

MW

h

Otherr PortableElectronics

Tablets

Portable PCs

Cellular Phones


[email protected]



X-EV MARKET

Why x-EV ?

Definition & segmentation

X-EV worldwide in 2015

By country

By car makers

By battery chemistry

X-EV forecasts

AVICENNE ENERGY & other analyst forecasts

Battery chemistry forecasts

Battery cost forecasts

X-EV battery forecasts

52


[email protected]



0

50

100

150Million barrel per day

Price of the WTI1 barrel of oil, US $

MAJOR DRIVER: CO2 regulation worldwide: From

2013 to 2014 Oil price decrease but HEV sales

increase by 5%, P-HEV by 30% and EV by 60%

53

WHY X-EV ?

Petroleum consumption worldwide

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

4

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

19

73

20

05

20

07

20

09

20

11

20

13

20

15

20

17

Gas

olin

e P

rice

– $

/Gal

lon

Cru

de

Oil

Pri

ce -

$ /

Bar

rel

Source: Energy Information Administration, US Government

Source: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html

Note 1 WTI: West Texas Intermediate

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

190

2012 2015 2020

CO

2 E

mis

sio

n (

g/km

)

Europe USA Japan China


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54

HEV, P-HEV & EV

DEFINITION & SEGMENTATION

Note: Micro HEV are not in the HEV statistics & HEV forecast

EV & HEV MARKET

EV 25 kWh

HEV 0.6-2 kWh batteries

MICRO HEV*

MILD HEV

MEDIUM HEV

FULL HEV

P HEV 10 kWh batteries

CITROEN C2, C3 BMW 3Series

Fiat 500 Hyundai i10 Hyudai i30

Kia Smart for2

Toyota Yaris Toyota Auris VW Passat

…..

GM Saturn Vue GM AURA

GM MALIBU HONDA ACCORD

HONDA CIVIC INSIGHT

MERCEDES S400

TOYOTA PRIUS

TOYOTA CAMRY FORD ESCAPE FORD FUSION

MILAN GM YUKON GM TAHOE

NISSAN ALTIMA 0%

50%

100%

0 $ 5 000 $ 10 000 $ 15 000 $

Fuel saving Vs. Cost

HEV

P-HEV

EV


[email protected]



HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2016

1,8 M HEV

HEV sold per year, M units, worldwide,

2000 - 2016

Penetration of hybrids in the global sales,

2000-2016

55 Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY Micro hybrid not included

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

2,0

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

Mill

ion

TOYOTA OTHERS

USA

JAPON

EUROPE 0%

10%

20%

30%

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16P

enet

rati

on

of

HEV

Growth 2014-2015: +2% From 1,8 M to 1,84 M HEV

Gazoline price impact on HEV market in

the US

0

1

2

3

4

0

200000

400000

600000

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

Gas

olin

e $

/ G

allo

n

HEV

sal

es p

er y

ear


[email protected]




BY CAR SUPPLIER

Total HEV Vehicles

1,8 Million HEV in 2016

HEV sold per year, M units per

car manufacturers, 2000-2016

56

Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY

Micro hybrid not included

Others: GM, Porsche, Mercedes, Mazda, Audi, Subaru etc…

TOYOTA 70%

HONDA 15%

FORD 4%

NISSAN 3%

HYUNDAI KIA 3%

VW 1%

OTHERS 4%

TOYOTA

HONDA

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

‘ 00

0 H

EV s

old

TOYOTA HONDA


[email protected]




BY CAR SUPPLIER TOP 2: TOYOTA, HONDA OTHERS: FORD, VW, HYUNDAI, …

57

FORD

GM

HYUNDAI NISSAN

VW

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

‘ 00

0 H

EV s

old

FORD GM HYUNDAI NISSAN VW

Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY


TOYOTA

HONDA

0

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

‘ 00

0 H

EV s

old

TOYOTA HONDA


[email protected]



HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2016 BY COUNTRY

USA 19%

EUROPE 18%

JAPAN 54%

OTHERS 9%

Total HEV Vehicles

1,84 M in 2016

HEV sold per year, M units per

country, 2004-2016

58

USA

EUROPE

JAPAN

OTHERS

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016




[email protected]



PHEV SOLD WORLDWIDE

World excl. China growth +14%

Chinese Growth + 26%

China is leading the P-HEV

market thanks to high incentives

59 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis, 2017

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

P-H

EV (

un

its)

OTHERS CHINA

SAIC

BYD

OTHERS

AUDI

PORSCHE

HYUNDAI

VOLVO

DAIMLER

BMW

HONDA

MITSUBISHI

VW

FORD

TOYOTA

GM

+18%

US 24%

JAPAN 2%

EUROPE 38%

CHINA 30%

Others 6%

USA

Japan

Europe

China

Others

-

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

P-H

EV (

un

its)


[email protected]



EV SOLD WORLDWIDE

World excl. China growth +15%

Chinese Growth + 68%

China is leading the EV market

thanks to high incentives

60 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis, 2017

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

P-H

EV (

un

its)

Other ChinaGACDongFeng NissanChanaJMCCHERYJACGeelyBAICZhidouZotyeKandiBYDOthersBOLLOREPSAHondaMITSUBISHIDAIMLERGMFordKIAVWSMARTBMW

+38%

US 15%

JAPAN 3%

EUROPE 21%

CHINA 55%

Others 6%

USA

Japan

Europe

China

Others

-

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

P-H

EV (

un

its)


[email protected]



NEV* DEVELOPMENT IN CHINA

362 100 PHEV & EV sold in

China in 2016

PHEV & EV evolution

61

PHEV 23%

EV 77%

*NEV=PHEV+EV (New Energy Vehicles)

BYD 29%

KANDI 2% Zotye

15%

BAIC 14%

GEELY 4%

JAC 3%

CHERY 5%

JMC 3%

Changan 1%

TESLA 2%

SAIC 4%

OTHERS 18%

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aou Sep Oct Nov Dec

PH

EV &

EV

sal

es

(Un

its)

2014 2015 2016


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XEV BUSES MARKET IN CHINA

24000 16000

88000 116000

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

EV Bus

PHEV Bus

xEV buses market in China:

132 000 xEV Buses sold in 2016

Rationales

62

The Chinese government is working on addressing environmental issues. Central and local governments are engaged in subsidy policies to promote EV/PHV/FCV as new energy vehicles. The amount of subsidy for EV/FCV with low environmental impact is set high. As the subsidy policy is announced to be carried out until 2020, it is predicted that this market will be on an expansion trend centering on EV. However, due to the occurrence of the case of receiving subsidies illegally in 2015, the government has begun to strictly control the production of new energy vehicles after 2016.


[email protected]



XEV BUSES MARKET IN CHINA

xEV buses market in China:



63

YUTONG 18%

KINGLONG 21%

ZHONGTONG 12%

BYD 5% DONGFENG

5%

GOLDEN DRAGON

4%

FOTON 3%

ANKAI 1%

ASIASTAR 1%

OTHERS 33%

The new energy bus market in China is mainly made up of EV with a large amount of subsidy from the government, and there are many cases where older makers also produce PHV.

As a result of the illegal receipt of subsidy occurred in 2015, publication of the company name and administrative guidance (penalty) from the government were carried out. Consequently, several makers including King Long have significantly reduced their market share in 2016, and old makers such as Yutong and Zhong Tong are expanding their market shares.

YUTONG 15%

KINGLONG 6%

ZHONGTONG 12%

BYD 3%

DONGFENG 1%

GOLDEN DRAGON

2%

FOTON 3%

ANKAI 4%

ASIASTAR 1%

OTHERS 53%


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LIB FOR AUTOMOTIVE

VALUE CHAIN

64

The largest share of the value (40%) comes from cell components

Cell manufacturers & OEM alliance may be the winning model but comes with high risk if the wrong cell manufacturer is selected

Tiers 1- cell manufacturers alliance: most of them disappear (eg. Saft-Johnson Controls, Bosch-Samsung, Enerdel-Delphi…)

Tiers 1- OEM alliance on Battery are not successful

Panasonic and LG Chem, cell manufacturers develop raw -material in-house and make the pack integration for OEM

On a different scale, Toyota, BYD or BOLLORE are fully integrate

1

2

3

5

4

6

Comments

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY 2016


[email protected]



65

LIB MANUFACTURING INVESTMENTS 2009-2015

10-12 B$ WORLDWIDE >50 GWh invest from 2011 to 2014)

> 7 B$ invested from 2014 to 2017 by TESLA (5), BYD (1,2), ATL (1)

TESLA Plant, Nevada, Feb 2015


TESLA GIGA FACTORY, Dec 2016

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

PANASONIC

NISSAN Motor US

Sony

BYD

LG Chem

JCI

A123

Sanyo

Ener1

Nissan-Renault (Fr)

Dow Kokam

GS YUASA

SB Limotive

Hitachi Vehicle Energy

Lithium Energy Japan

Rusnano-Thunder Sky

LG Chem

Nissan - Renault (UK)

Toshiba

Blue Energy

Nissan-Renault (Port)

Lishen

BAK

SAFT US

SAFT

Hitachi Vehicle Energy

AESC Japon

NEC Tokin

Mitsubishi H.I.

SK Energy

Panasonic EV

LiTec GmbH

TESLA (2014-2017)

BYD (2013 - 2015)

ATL (2014 - 2017)

M$

Total Investment (M$) made for LIB manufacturing

(Invest end 2016)

Average 2012-2014 Investments: 250 $ / kWh

2014 – 2017 TESLA, ATL, BYD

Investments: 150 $ / kWh


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TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS

IN LIB INDUSTRY

The research and development in this industry is very long and time consuming. Time to market to commercialize a new material is long. Remember that the first Li-ion battery was launched by Sony in 1991 with LCO cathode, graphite, LiPF6 electrolyte & polyolefin membrane. It was 20 years ago. LTO was invented by Matsushita in 1993 (22 years ago) Lithium iron phosphate was invented in 1995 (20 years ago). So, it takes between 10 & 20 years to commercialize a new material in the battery industry.

66


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BATTERY TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP

67

Batteries take a long time to develop; to reach the

automotive market, another 4 to 5 years are needed

Source: Avicenne Energy analysis


[email protected]



TIME TO MARKET FOR NEW MATERIALS

68 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY 2016


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SAFETY ISSUES

69

Li-ion and LMP are not thermally stable what raises serious safety

concerns In the 80’s, lithium metal batteries were put into the markets (Moli Energy). Their further development has for a long time been slow because of a low cycle efficiency and safety issues: High chemical reactivity and a low melting point enable strong chemical reactions, even explosions. In the charging-discharging process, lithium metal can form dendrite and accumulate on electrodes. The growing lithium dendrite could puncture the separator and result in an internal short circuit. Except BOLLORE, all the companies developing Li metal batteries cancelled their projects

B

ac

kg

rou

nd

M

ob

ile

Li-ion batteries for mobile devices mostly used a Lithium Cobalt Oxide Cathode and liquid

electrolyte.

In case of overcharging or short-circuit (contact between anode & cathode) a chain reaction

starts -> heating & gasing -> fire (“Thermal runaway”)

In 2006, SONY had to recall millions of portable PCs for total costs of 400 million USD, more

than there profit-to-date

Au

tom

oti

ve

A

irc

raft

Boing 787: The fire that burned near the tail of a parked Boeing 787 in Boston was caused

by an overheating Lithium ion battery pack. The battery fire could have been hot enough to

melt the carbon-fiber reinforced plastic that makes up the plane’s shell.

CONSEQUENCES: All the 787 worldwide are grounded. Considerable losses for Boing.

With new cathode chemistry, most of the automotive today on the markets experienced safety concerns: (1) BYD Taxi in China with a lithium iron phosphate cathode (2) GM Volt in the US with a LG Chemical battery using LMO cathodes (as a result of a crashed tested Chevrolet Volt caught three weeks after the testing !) (3) PRIUS P-HEV in the US (converted from HEV Prius by a local engineering company without any authorisation by Toyota)



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LIB BUSINESS

RECALLS SLASH BATTERY PROFIT

70

More & more incidents & accidents

All the battery makers and the OEM are concerned

Recall cost impact drastically the battery business and the profitability

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

Op

era

tin

g p

rofi

t/R

eve

nu

e

RECALL SLASH BATTERY PROFIT

Sanyo

MBI

BYD

SGS

Sony

NEC

Maxell

LGC

SDI

Average



[email protected]



SAFETY IS A SINE-QUA-NON SELECTION

CRITERIA FOR BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES

71

Some technologies are already out of the game due to

stability issues



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LIB BATTERY COST

Raw material cost (Co, Mn, Ni, Al, Cu, …) Anode, cathode, Electrolyte , separator, binders, Cu & Al foil, etc… cost structure :

CAPEX, labor cost, R&D Marketing, Adm, Overhead, margin)

Raw material needs / mAh Electrode process Yield Assembly Process Yield Cell manufacturing cost Module manufacturing cost Pack assembly cost …

Costs analysis Battery price in 2016

$/kWh

72

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

LIB18650

cell

LIB EVCell

LIB packfor EV

LIB HEVcell

LIB packfor HEV



[email protected]



LI-ION BATTERY COST

2015-2025 LIB cell average cost (40 Ah pouch)

(EV design ; NMC cathode)

LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST FOR

EV

73 * For Production > 100 000 packs/year

(1) Active materials only

2020 2025 2015

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Ce

ll

Pac

k

Ce

ll

Pac

k

Ce

ll

Pac

k

$ /

kW

h

Pack Cost

CellManufacturing

Other Materials

Separator

Electrolyte

Anode

Cathode0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2010 2015 2020 2025

$ /

kW

h

Margin

Warranty

Overheads

Sales & Adm

R&DEnergy, utilities

Direct labor

Depreciation

Scraps

Others

Separator

Electrolyte

Anode (1)

Cathode (1)



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LIB PRICE FORECASTS

74 Source: Rapidly falling costs of battery packs for electric vehicles, Nature Climate Change , March 2015

Avicenne Energy

http://rameznaam.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/Nature-Climate-Change-Batteries-Cheaper-than-2020-Projections.png


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HEV FORECASTS

2000-2020

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25H

EV p

enet

rati

on

(%

of

tota

l car

sal

es)

USA EUROPE JAPAN

OTHERS WORLD

HEV MARKET: <2 M units in 2016 – 2,5 M in 2020 – 3,3 M in 2025

75

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Mill

ion

USA EUROPE JAPAN OTHERS




[email protected]



0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

2010 2015 2020 2025

Mill

ion

car

s

E-Bus Others

E-Bus China

EV in China

P-HEV in China

EV

P-HEV

EV, P-HEV, EV 2025 FORECASTS

2016 forecasts: HEV, P-HEV & EV market forecasts up to 2025

76

Thanks to very high incentives, China change the game

0,9 1,8

2,5 3,3

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2010 2015 2020 2025

Mill

ion

car

s

E-Bus Others

E-Bus China

EV in China

P-HEV in China

EV

P-HEV

HEV

HEV, PHEV, EV & E-Bus PHEV, EV & E-Bus

0,69

1,6

3,1


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TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND

2025 FORECASTS Li-ion for EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery

needs (MWh)

CAGR 2016-2025: +14%

Li-ion for EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery

needs (M$)

CAGR 2016-2025: +8%

77

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2010 2015 2020 2025

M W

h

12-48 volts SLI HEV PHEV

EV EV & PHEV China E-bus China

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2010 2015 2020 2025

M $




[email protected]



X-EV BATTERY MARKET

2000 – 2025 IN M$

78

Pack Level

CAGR 2015-2025: +8%

Cell Level

CAGR 2016-2025: +8%

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

2010 2015 2020 2025

M $



0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

22000

24000

2010 2015 2020 2025

M $




[email protected]



35 MILLION MICRO-HYBRIDS CAR IN

2020 Micro-hybrids car market

2010-2020

Advantages of micro-hybrid

compare to HEV

79

Powered by Advanced lead acid batteries

Much more profitable than full HEV: 8 to 10 times less expensive than full HEV to save 5% gasoline instead of 20% (4 times less)

Much more impact on CO2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2010 2015 2020

Mill

ion

Micro-hybrid car sold per year

AVICENNE

OptimisticScenario

JD Power

Valeo

Micro-hybrid Full HEV

Battery Advanced lead acid

NiMH or LIB

Cost ($) 300 3000

Fuel saving 5% 20%

Million Vehicle sold per year in 2020

> 35 2,5


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HEV, P-HEV AND EV REALITY OF THE MARKET WILL

BOOST MICRO HYBRID AND ADVANCED LEAD ACID

BATTERIES

80

Stand

ard

Lead acid

Batteries

2010 2015 2020 AFTER

Li-ion

batteries

NiM

H

ba

tterie

s

STANDARD CAR

88.5% EV

P-HEV

FULL

HEV

1%

MILD

HEV

0.5%

MICRO

HYBRIDS

10%

Ad

vanced

Lead

acid

NiM

H

STANDARD CAR

44%

MICRO HYBRID

50%

EV

P-HEV

1,5%

FULL HEV

2,5%

ULTRA

BATTERY Li-Air, Li-S, Fuel Cells Li-ion


[email protected]




1990-2015 Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Lead acid batteries: The most important market (90% market share)

81 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2016

Lead Acid Batteries 2016

+360 GWh for > US $ 33 Billion

62%

32% 6%

SLI

Industry, ESS

Others

26%

22%

23%

29%

Telecom

UPS

OtherStationary, ESS

Motive

Industrial Batteries

55 GWh for US $ 11 Billion

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

US$

B

Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)

Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lead Acid

% In value

% In value

medical, e-bikes


[email protected]




IN 2016: US $ 65 BILLION

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000EV, E-Bus

Portable

SLI

Others

Marine

Medical devices

Seismic

ESS

UPS

Telecom

Other Motive

Forklift

Power Tools

E-Bikes


0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

Lead Acid LIB Others

Other Applications

Marine

Medical devices

Seismic

ESS

UPS

Telecom

Other Motive

Forklift

Power Tools

E-Bikes

US $ 22,8

Billion for

“other”

applications



[email protected]



TOTAL POTENTIAL MARKET (M$, PACK LEVEL1)

Application details US$ 22,8 Billion in 2016 (1)

83

E-Bikes 13% Power Tools

9%

Forklift 13%

Other Motive 1%

Telecom 14%

UPS 12%

ESS 13%

Seismic 1%

Marine 2% Others

14%

E-Bikes Power Tools

Forklift Other Motive

Telecom UPS

ESS Seismic

Medical devices Marine

Others


2- Other App: Military, aerospace, Oil & Gas, Railways, Aviation, Utility metering,…


1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 10 11 6


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MARKET SEGMENT SYNTHESIS

TEMPLATE

84 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses

LIB market in value

2012/2025 - CAGR

Battery market in value

2012/2025 - CAGR

LIB main drivers &

limiters

Battery market by Area

LIB market by Area

LIB Penetration in % of

total device

LIB market in M$

Major competitors

Major customers

Most important performances characteristic, ASP, Average capacity

LIB most valuable improvement LIB form factor

ASP in 2012 & 2020


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85

1- E-BIKES LIB: FROM US$ 1,8 BILLION IN 2016 TO 3,2 IN 20201 – CAGR: +16%

0

2000

4000

6000

LIB

Market 2016-2020 (US $, Million) – CAGR: 11% Main drivers

E-bike in China: Banning of gasoline powered motorcycles in china boost e-bikes: “Necessary”

In US, Europe and Japan, “Green image”, sport, leisure, transportation: “Environment & Health”

LIB penetration in China from 6 to 14%

Main Limiters

In Japan, US and Europe, E-bikes are already equipped by Li-ion

In China the only parameter to choose a battery is the cost

Chinese E-bike ASP: 320 $/kWh: very difficult to penetrate this market


Performances characteristic

1- Cycle life

2-Energy density

3- Low cost

Average Capacity:300 Wh

Battery needs

Most valuable improvements 1- Price decrease 2- Cycle life 3- Fast charge Form factor: from cylindrical to Laminate No standardization

LIB needs

0%

50%

100%

201

2

201

3

201

4

201

5

201

6

201

7

201

8

201

9

202

0

LIB Penetration (% device)

China US, EU, Jap

Note: 1- Pack level – 2- A Johnson Matthey affiliate

-

2 000

4 000

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

LIB market (M$)

CHINA Others

Competitors

BMZ (Germany)

AXEON2 (UK)

HITECH (Taiwan)

Phylion (China)

…

Customers

Bosch,

Panasonic

Bion-X

TranX-Z

+ > 500 e-bike mfg.

ASP1 : 2012: 600 $/Kwh 2020: 400 $/kWh

ASP : 2012: 80 $/kWh 2020: 75 $/kWh

4% 13%

81%

2%

LIB 2020 by Area US

Europe

China

Others

12%

39% 42%

7%

LIB 2016 by Area US

Europe

China

Others


[email protected]



86

2- POWER TOOLS LIB: FROM US$ 1,4 BILLION IN 2016 TO 1,9 B IN 20201 – CAGR:+8%

0

1000

2000

3000

Li-ion

NICd

Market 2016-2020 (US $, Million) – CAGR:+5% LIB Main drivers

Higher voltage

NiCd substitution

NiCd regulation

Cordless power tools & gardening tools market increase (+4% per year)

Higher energy density, less weight

LIB main Limiters

LIB average sales price

Reliability

High rate discharge

Fast charge

Life time


Important characteristic:

1- Higher power & capacity

2-Fast recharge

2012 ASP NiCd: 350 $/kWh

2012 ASP LIB: 550 $/kWh

Average Capacity: 60 Wh

Battery needs

Most valuable improvements

1- Price decrease

2- Fast charge

3- High rate discharge

Form factor: Cylindrical

No standardization

LIB needs

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

LIB Penetration

Note: : 1- Pack level

-

1 000

2 000

2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

LIB market (M$)

Customers Bosch

B&D

TTI

Makita

Jingding

Hilti

…

ASP1 2012:560 $/Kwh 2020: 390 $/Kwh

ASP: 2012: 335 $/kWh 2020: 275 $/kWh

Battery 2013 by Area

>75% of the power tools are made in China

But, battery pack could be made on the end-user area (Ex: Bosch – Axeon Poland)

LIB 2020 by Area

Power tools will be made in China

Local demand in Europe, US, next to the end user to increase flexibility & Just in Time mfg.

Competitors

Cell/Pack Mfg.: TOP3: Samsung, Panasonic, Sony (> 75%)

Pack makers: AXEON (Bosch),


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87

3- MOTIVE INDUSTRIAL: FORKLIFTS2 LIB: FROM US$ 160 MILLION IN 2016 TO 275 IN 20201 – CAGR: 15%

0

2000

4000

6000

LIB

Lead Acid

Market 2016-2020 (US $, Million) – CAGR:7% Main drivers

Where economies are healthy, they reflect strong motive power production

Europe & US got high E-forklift ratio compare to Asia

LIB higher life time (* 3 to 5)

Multiple shift operation where battery change is required (time consuming)

Main Limiters

Low penetration of E-forklift in Asia High LIB capital price (x 5 compare to lead acid) Safety concerns in two of the lift truck types, sit-down rider and high reach, the counterbalance for the lift truck is supplied mainly by a lead acid battery


important characteristic

1-high charge/discharge rates and capacity

2-high life time, range,

Average Capacity: 22 kWh

Battery needs Most valuable improvements

1- Price 2- Convince customers on “total cost of ownership”

Form factor: large format prismatic – size standardization

LIB needs

0%

5%

10%

LIB Penetration

Note: : 1- Pack level 2- Including all kind of Material handling equipment

-

200

400

LIB market (M$)

Customers For lead acid, After market represent 60% of the market: lot of different customers (industrials)

For LIB, OEM Forklift: TOYOTA, Kion , Jungheinrich, NACCO , Crown, Mitsubishi Caterpillar

42% 51%

7%

LIB 2020 by Area

US

Europe

ASP 2012:550 $/kWh 2020: 365 $/kWh

ASP 2012:150 $/kWh 2020: 144 $/kWh

Battery 2012 by Area Europe – largest producer of motive power batteries – has higher percentage of electric vs. gas trucks (75%) than in N. America (64%) – China: High % of Gas/propane trucks (> 80%)

Competitors Lead Acid & LIB: Enersys (35%), Exide (10%), East Penn (10%), Hoppecke (10%), Crown (10%)

LIB systems: BMZ, Lithium Balance, …


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88

4- STATIONARY: TELECOM MARKET LIB: FROM US$ 0,5 BILLION IN 2016 TO 1,1 IN 20201 – CAGR > 20%

-

2 000

4 000

6 000

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

LIB

Lead Acid

Market 2016-2020 (US $, Million) – CAGR: +7% Main drivers

LIB developed for new equipment

Increased Bandwidth requirements

Wireless Market driving growth

Strong Network Growth in China, India, E. Europe & S. America

2G-> 3G -> 4G … need new equipment's

LIB: Specially in Hot climate

main Limiters

Lead Acid Vs. Li-ion…

Lead Acid capital cost 5 times cheaper

Total cost of ownership could be compare with Lead acid

14% 28%

20% 14% 16% 8%


China

Europe

US

India


Most important performances characteristic

1- Hot T°C performances

2- Customized for the new Equipment network

Average Capacity: 5-10 kWh modules (100 Ah)

Battery needs

Most valuable improvements 1- Capital costs 2- Safety Proof 3- Reliability

Customized battery developed for new equipment

LIB needs

0%

10%

20%

LIB Penetration

Note: : 1- Pack level

-

1 000

2 000

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

LIB market (M$)

Customers Not so many customers; big telecom carriers in each countries

16% 21%

19% 19% 20% 5%

Battery 2020 by Area ChinaEuropeUSIndiaOthers

ASP 2012: 600 $/kWh 2020: 400 $/kWh

ASP 2012: 200 $/kWh 2020: 185 $/kWh

Competitors Lead Acid & LIB: Enersys (35%), Exide (10%), and local suppliers in each countries

LIB systems: “large companies” : SAFT, others?


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89

5- STATIONARY: UPS MARKET LIB: FROM US$ 0,27 BILLION IN 2016 TO 0,55 IN 20201 – CAGR: 19%

-

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

20

20

LIB

Lead Acid

Market 2013-2020 (US $, Million) – CAGR: +4% Main drivers

UPS Drivers: New Data Storage Centers Mobile Society

LIB drivers: Less volume, less place > Life time

LIB is more needed where data are sensitive Li-ion battery could also help to save electricity during peak time

main Limiters

Safety could be an important issue here


Most important performances characteristic

1- Back-up at high current

2- weight, volume

3- life time

Average Capacity: 3-5 kWh modules

Battery needs

Most valuable improvements 1- Convince on Safety 2- Capital Cost 3- Reliability

Form factor: Cylindrical New development for new equipment

LIB needs

0%

5%

10%

LIB Penetration

Note: UPS: Uninterruptible Power Supply APC: American Power Conversion

-

500

1 000

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

LIB market (M$)

Customers Few leaders/many products: Emerson/Liebert, Schneider/APC, Eaton Powerware, Gamatronic, Riello

ASP 2012:600 $/kWh 2020: 400 $/kWh

ASP 2012: 200 $/kWh 2020: 170 $/kWh


China

Europe

US

India

Battery 2020 by Area ChinaEuropeUSIndiaOthers

Competitors Lead Acid & LIB: Enersys (35%), Exide (10%), and local suppliers in each countries

LIB systems: local companies providing > services


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ESS SEGMENTATION

90

Services provided by Energy Storage System (ESS)

Regulation

Arbitrage Investment deferral

Grid independent power supply

• Reconcile momentary differences caused by fluctuations in generation and/ or loads – Frequency regulation – Voltage support – Load following/ ramping support – Power quality

Back-up and reserves

• Provide emergency power when utility power is not available – UPS (Uninterruptible power

supply) – Power continuity – Reserves to face lose of one

generator

Black start • Provide an active reserve of power

and energy to (re)start power generator

• Store energy when the price of electricity is low and releases it on the grid when prices are high

• Enable deferral of utility investments by using relatively small amounts of storage – Congestion relief – Avoid infrastructure investment

• Provide electricity power supply in an area not connected to the grid e.g. – Rural community – Based stations powered by Solar

energy

On grid services

Off grid services



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ESS SEGMENTATION

91 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY 2016


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ESS REQUIREMENTS

92

On structuring parameters: discharge time and average power, segments

highlight different patterns

Source : AVICENNE Energy, 2016


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ENERGY STORAGE SOLUTIONS

93

Mapped on discharge time and power, technologies will appear suitable for certain

segments only

Source: AVICENNE Energy, 2016


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ESS MARKET & FORECASTS

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

2015 2025

MW

H

Generation and T&D segments (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12)

UPS (18)

Power continuity, Telecom (17)

ESS End Users (13, 14, 15, 16, 19, 20)

From 36 GWh to 65 GWh in 2025

CAGR: +6%

ESS excl Telecom & UPS

CAGR: +13 to 15%

94 Source: AVICENNE Energy, 2016

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2015 2025 2025 Opt(1)

MW

H

Generation and T&D segments (1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12)

ESS End Users (13, 14, 15, 16, 19, 20)

Li-ion 28%

Others 72%

Li-ion 52%

Others 48%

(1) If LIB cost is < 150$/kWh, the market could be much more important


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LI-ION BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS

95



From 78 GWh in 2016 to

210 GWh

CAGR 2016/2025


-

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

M W

h

Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2015

Others

Industrial,ESS

Auto, E-busChina


Electronicdevices

2016: 78 GWh

2025: 210 GWh

Electronic devices

40%


13%


Industrial, ESS 6% Others

11%

Electronic devices

26%


15%


Industrial, ESS 8%

Others 16%

16%

17%

18%

13%

6%

CAGR 15/25


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LI-ION BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS CAGR 2016/2025 +13 % per year in Volume

Cell: +7% per year in value

Pack: +8% per year in value


-

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

200

0

200

5

201

0

201

5

202

0

202

5

M$

Li-ion cells M$, Worldwide, 2000-2025

Others

Industrial,ESS

Auto, E-bus China

Auto, e-bus Excl.ChinaElectronicdevices

-

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

45 000

50 000

200

0

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

20

20

25

M$

Li-ion Packs M$, Worldwide, 2000-2025


11%

11%

12%

8%

0%

CAGR 15/25


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TAKEAWAYS

97

Others: Automatic handling equipment, forklifts, back-up, UPS, Telecom, medical devices, Residential ESS, Grid ESS, …

Li-ion battery is driven today by Automotive & Industrial applications

In 2012, most of the car makers (except Toyota) switch to Li-ion for HEV

P-HEV, EV and E-buses will be powered by Li-ion: 11 B$ market in 2016 - 17 B$ in 2020 & 22 B$ in 2025 with high numbers in China (2016: US$ 2,8 Billion for xEV and US$ 3,7 Billion for xE-Buses)

EV expectations attract large Chemical companies

New materials are needed to meet Automotive standards

HEV will account for less than 3% of the auto sales in 2020

P-HEV & EV < 2% by 2020

Micro-hybrid will achieve >50% in 2020/25

Lead acid battery will be the first market in 2025 in volume, but Li-ion market will be higher than Lead acid from 2020.

A very small EV market in the automotive world will represent a huge market for batteries

New LIB applications: UPS, Telecom, Forklift, Medical, Residential ESS, Grid ESS: CAGR > 10% in the next 15 years

ESS will reach 10 Billion $ market at the pack level in the next 5 years

ESS market could be much more important if the price of LIB at the system level is under 150 $/kWh

RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET

WORLDWIDE 2000-2025

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

MW

h

Others

LIB

NiMH

NiCd

Lead Acid

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025Lead Acid (+3%) NiCd (-6%)NiMH (-7%) LIB for 3C (+0%)LIB for xEV (+10%) LIB for Others* (+10%)

25B$ 30B$

61 B$

80 B$

> 95 B$

210 GWh

270 GWh

475 GWh

610 GWh

16

10

44

(CAGR 2016-2025)

22

(Pack level) 2,8

43B$

350 GWh

Battery Market 2010-2025

CAGR = +5% / Li-ion>+8%


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THANK YOU

Christophe PILLOT

AVICENNE ENERGY

[email protected]

Phone: +33 1 47 78 46 00

Mobile: + 33 6 88 82 79 49

98

Documents

The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2011 …cii-resource.com/cet/FBC-TUT8/Presentations/Pillot_Christophe.pdf · The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2016-2025