The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends … Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2014-2025 Director, AVICENNE ENERGY Christophe PILLOT 32nd INTERNATIONAL BATTERY SEMINAR

The Rechargeable

Battery Market and

Main Trends 2014-2025

Director, AVICENNE ENERGY

Christophe PILLOT

32nd INTERNATIONAL BATTERY

SEMINAR & EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Presentation Outline • The rechargeable battery market in 2014 • The Li-ion battery value chain • Li-ion battery material market • Forecasts & conclusions


[email protected]

The Rechargeable Battery Market and


32nd INTERNATIONAL BATTERY SEMINAR

& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

AGENDA

The market in 2014 by technology, applications & battery suppliers

Li-ion battery value chain Raw materials market

Supplier / customer relationship

Raw material cost

New entrants strategy

Raw material road map 2000-2030

xEV market in 2013/2014

xEV forecasts up to 2025

Could Lithium ion replace lead acid for industrial applications?

Rechargeable battery market forecasts up to 2025

2


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO

HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTS

HEV powered by Lithium ion battery

forecasts from 2008 to 2014

EV sold, in million units, worldwide,

2010 - 2020

0

1

2

3

4

5

2010 2015 2020

Nu

mb

er o

f EV

so

ld w

orl

dw

ide

( M

illio

n)

Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011

3

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mill

ion

HEV

po

we

red

by

LIB

IIT 2007

IIT 2008

IIT 2009

IIT 2010

AVICENNE 2007

REALITY

AAB (2012)

AVICENNE 2007-2012

ROLAND BERGER (2011)

IIT (MARCH 2010)


DEUTSCHE BANK (2012)

IIT (MARCH 2011)


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

4

THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY

DYNAMIC

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2015

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2000 2014

Mill

ion

Un

its

/ ye

ar

Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million)

Li-ion

NiMH

170 M Portable

PCs

230 M Tablets

0

100

200

300

400

500

2000 2014

Mill

ion

Un

its/

Ye

ar

Portable PC sold per Year (Million)

Li-ion

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

2000 2014

Ton

s o

f ca

tho

de

/ Ye

ar

Tons of Li-ion Cathode per year

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

2000 2014

$/W

h

Li-ion 18650 cell price ($/Wh)


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET

1990-2015

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

1990 2000 2010 2012 2013 2014 2015

MW

h

Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)

Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

5

2015: Estimations Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2015

Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of industry

investments


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

450 000

19

90

20

00

20

10

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

MW

h


Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lead Acid

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

19

90

20

00

20

10

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

MW

h


1990-2015

Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share)

6

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2015

2015: Estimations


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015


1990-2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

19

90

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

13

20

14

20

15

Bill

ion

US

$


Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lead Acid

60 BILLION US$ in 2014 – Pack level1

5% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (1990-2014)

7

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1990

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

13

20

14

20

15

Bill

ion

US$

OTHERS

AUTOMOTIVE

INDUSTRIAL

E-BIKES

POWER TOOLS

PORTABLE

SLI


SLI: Start light and ignition batteries for cars, truck, moto, boat etc…

PORTABLE: concumer electronics (cellular, portable PCs, tablests, Camera, …), data collection & handy terminals,

POWER Tools: power tools but also gardening tools

INDUSTRIAL

• MOTIVE: Forklift (95%), others

• STATIONARY: Telecom, UPS, Energy Storage System, Medical, Others (Emergency Lighting, Security, Railroad Signaling,, Diesel Generator Starting, Control & Switchgear,

AUTOMOTIVE: HEV, P-HEV, EV

OTHERS: Medical: wheelchairs, medical carts, medical devices (surgical power tools, mobile instrumentation (x-ray, ultrasound, EKG/ECG, large oxygen concentrators

1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included

2015: Estimations


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015


IN 2014: US $ 60 BILLION

Portable

Automotive

SLI

0

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000Others

SLI

Automotive

Portable

Other Applications

Marine

Medical devices

Wheelchair

Medical Cart

Other Stationary

Seismic

ESS

Other Stand-by

UPS

Telecom

Other Motive

Forklift

Power Tools

E-Bikes

8

Battery market in 2014 (M$)

1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included


0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

Lead Acid LIB

Other Applications

Marine

Medical devices

Wheelchair

Medical Cart

Other Stationary

Seismic

ESS

Other Stand-by

UPS

Telecom

Other Motive

Forklift

Power Tools

E-Bikes

US $ 20

Billion for

“other”

applications


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

WORLDWIDE BATTERY SALES BY

CHEMISTRY, UNITS, 1995-2015

The worldwide rechargeable battery

market, Million cells, 1995-2015

Which cell are we talking about?

9

Front Edge Technology, Inc

2015: estimation data

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

199

5

199

7

199

9

200

1

200

3

200

5

200

7

200

9

201

1

201

3

201

5

Mill

ion

ce

lls

NiCd NiMH Li-ion

GS Yuasa International / Lithium Energy Japan


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015


CHEMISTRY, MWH, 1995-2015

-

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

70 000

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

MW

h

Li-ion

NiMH

NiCd

The worldwide rechargeable battery market, in volume,

MWh, 1995-2015

2015: estimation data

2004-2014(CAGR): +16%

NiCd: -2% per year

NiMH: +6 per year

Li-ion: +21% per year

10


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015


CHEMISTRY, M$, 1995-2015

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

20000

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

M$

Li-ion

NiMH

NiCd

The worldwide rechargeable battery market, in value, M$,

1995-2015

Note: Cell level

2004 – 2014 CAGR):+12%

NiCd: -6% per year

NiMH: + 9% per year

Li-ion: +14% per year

11


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

EACH BATTERY TECHNOLOGY HAS ITS

SPECIFIC ABSOLUTE ADVANTAGES

12

Lead Acid

Nickel Cadmium NiCd

Nickel Metal Hydride NiMH Conventional Laminate

Lithium-Ion

...On

Advantage of ...

• Gravimetric energy density • Volumetric energy density • Operating temperature

range • Self discharge rate • Reliability (progressive

extinction)

• Gravimetric energy density

• Volumetric energy density • Self discharge rate

• Gravimetric energy density • Volumetric energy density • Voltage output • Self discharge rate

• Higher cyclability • Voltage output • Price


• Volumetric energy density

• Gravimetric energy density • Volumetric energy density • Voltage output • Self discharge rate

• Higher cyclability • Voltage output • Price

• Operating temperature range

• Higher cyclability • Self discharge rate • Price


range • Higher cyclability • Voltage output • Self discharge rate

• Gravimetric energy density • Volumetric energy density • Self discharge rate • Design characteristics

• Gravimetric energy density • Volumetric energy density • Self discharge rate • Design characteristics


range • Self discharge rate • Design characteristics

Lead Acid

Nickel Cadmium NiCd

Nickel Metal Hydride NiMH

• Higher cyclability • Price • Safety • Recyclability


• Higher cyclability • Price • Safety • Recyclability

• Price • Safety • Discharge rate • Recyclability

• Higher cyclability • Price



• Volumetric energy density • Higher cyclability • Price

• Gravimetric energy density • Volumetric energy density

(potentially) • Design characteristics • Safety • Price


• Higher cyclability

Conventional

Laminate

Lith

ium

-Io

n


• Volumetric energy density • Self discharge rate • Voltage output • Design characteristics



• Price

• Volumetric energy density

• Gravimetric energy density • Volumetric energy density • Self discharge rate • Voltage output

Absolute advantages


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

JAPANESE, CHINESE & KOREAN

MARKET SHARE

Japanese market share (value) decreasing: from 82 % of the market

in 2001 to < 40% in 2014

13

(1) Excluding lead acid batteries

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%1

99

41

99

51

99

61

99

71

99

81

99

92

00

02

00

12

00

22

00

32

00

42

00

52

00

62

00

72

00

82

00

92

01

02

01

12

01

22

01

32

01

42

01

5

Rechargeable battery(1) market by country

Japan

Korea

China

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

LIB market by country

Japan

Korea

China


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

CYLINDRICAL LI-ION BATTERY

SANYO-PANASONIC

39%

SAMSUNG 29%

LG 18%

SONY 7%

OTHERS 7%

Cylindrical LIB market Company

market share in 2014 in volume:

1925 Million cells (+3%)

SANYO-PANASONIC, SDI & LG

will share the market

14 Note: 1 ppm: piece per minutes Source: Interviews with LG, SAMSUNG, SANYO-PANASONIC

Key success factor • Production speed (-> cost)

• Performances

• Customer (Portable PCs) access

LG

SDI

PANASONIC

0 500 1000 1500Ah / min

Production Speed: 18650 – 2,8Ah cells

400 ppm

400 ppm

350 ppm1

-

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Mill

ion

ce

lls

18650 cells for Portable PC & others 18650 for TESLA

Assumptions: TESLA sold 35 kEV in 2014, 55 kEV in 2015 and 100 kEV in 2016

-

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

PANASONIC-SANYO Sony SDI LG Others

Cylindrical cells (M) by mfg.


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

PRISMATIC LI-ION BATTERY

SAMSUNG SDI 26%

SANYO-PANASONI

C 15%

LG 19%

MAXELL 12%

BAK 7%

LISHEN 8%

BYD 8%

OTHERS 5%

Prismatic LIB market Company

market share in 2014 in volume:

1200 Million cells (-5%)

Prismatic cells (M) by Mfg. :

SAMSUNG is leading

15


-

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Panasonic-Sanyo SDI LG

BYD LISHEN BAK

OTHERS


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

LI-LAMINATE BATTERY

SONY 15%

ATL 16%

SAMSUNG SDI 13% LG

Chemical 12%

LISHEN 8%

BAK 2%

BYD 5%

PANASONIC 3%

OTHERS 26%

Laminate battery market

Company market share in 2014

in volume: 2 220 Million cells

(+32%)

Pouch cells (M) by Mfg. SONY,

ATL and SAMSUNG are leading

this market

16


0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

Panasonic-Sanyo Sony SDILG MAXELL BYDLISHEN BAK ATL


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

LI-ION IN 2014

MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK

17

2015 estimation data

-

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 00020

0020

0120

0220

0320

0420

0520

0620

0720

0820

0920

1020

1120

1220

1320

1420

15

M W

h

Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2014

Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others

-

5 000

10 000

15 000

20 000

25 000

30 000

35 000

40 000

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

M W

h

Li-ion Battery sales, MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2014

Tablets Power Tools Camcorders

Digital Camera Video Games MP3

Toys Auto Household devices

E-bikes Others

5 400 M cells –46 000 MWh

13 600 M$ (2)

CAGR 2004/2014

+21 % per year in Volume

+14% per year in value


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

LI-ION IN 2014

MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK

CAGR 2004/2014

+20 % per year in Volume

+14% per year in value

18

Note: (1) 2013: Avicenne Forecasts (2) Cell level

-

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

M $

Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2000-2014 (1)

Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

M $

Li-ion Battery sales, M$, Worldwide, 2000-2014 (1)

Automotives Tablets Power tools

Camcorders Digital camera MP3

Games E-Bikes Others

5 250 M cells – 45 000 MWh

13 300 M$ (2)


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

19

CELLULAR PHONES MARKET

> 1980 M LIB CELLS IN 2014

NOKIA

MOTOROLA

SAMSUNG

APPLE

0

100

200

300

400

500

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

M c

ellu

lar

ph

on

es/

year

NOKIA MOTOROLA SAMSUNG LG

APPLE RIM ZTE SONY

+1800 M cell phones sold in

2013 (+7% CAGR)

Samsung Galaxy & I-phone

change the game

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Standard Smartphones

(2012/2013 growth) + 13%

-23%

+13%

+67% +25%

NOKIA 14%

SAMSUNG 25%

APPLE 8%

LG 4%

HUAWEI 3%

ZTE 4%

Others 42%

2013 1800 M Phones

NOKIA 33%

SAMSUNG 20%

APPLE 3%

LG 8%

RIM 3%

ZTE 4%

Others 29%

2010 1400 M Phones

Pris. 50%

Lam. 50%

LIB cell format (Volume) 2013


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

CELLULAR PHONES/LIB SUPPLIERS

RELATIONSHIPS

- 100 200 300 400 500

Nokia

Samsung

LG Chem

APPLE

ZTE

M cells in 2013

Sanyo Sony SDI LGC Lishen ATL

2013 Cellular Phone makers /

battery suppliers relation

20

Smartphones ie laminate LIB

increasing

-

200

400

600

800

1 000

1 200

1 400

1 600

1 800

2 000

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

M c

ells

/ Y

ear

NiMH LIB Pr. LIB La.

0 50 100 150 200

iPod

iPhone

IPad

Mac

M Cells in 2013

ATL SDI LG SONY LISHEN

APPLE needs in 2013


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

21

PORTABLE PC MARKET

990 M LIB CELLS IN 2014

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

0

50

100

150

200

250

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

M P

ort

able

PC

/ye

ar

Dell HP Toshiba

Acer Lenovo Asus

APPLE Others Growth/years

195 M portable PCs sold

2012/2013: -3%

Market outlook 2014

Note: Excluding Tablets

Uncertain macro & weakness in both consumer & commercial growth No sign for end-customer demand recovery Decrease due to cannibalization by tablets Small overall decrease only thanks to Emerging market growth

Increase of Ultra-thin Portable

PCs

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2010 2011 2012 2013

% o

f P

ort

able

PC

so

ld

16in

15in

14in

13in

11-12in

Netbook

Cyl. 80%

Pris. 1%

Lam. 19%



[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

22

TABLET MARKET

> 550 M CELLS IN 2013

0

50

100

150

200

250

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

M t

able

ts /

year

Others

Samsung

Apple

Tablets sold (Million)

Apple leadership

Market Outlook 2013

High growth driven by rapid ASP drop

Growth driven by mature market (77%)

consumer market (95%)

Apple (33%), Samsung (20%), Asus (6%), Acer, Lenovo, Amazon are the key competitors Source: Gartner, IDC, Display search – 2013: AVICENNE Estimation

ASP tablets drop

From $636 in Q4 2010 to $335 in Q4 2013: - 47% in 36 months

636 607 616 550 522 508 500 480 449

405 370 345 335

200

300

400

500

600

700

Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012 Q4 2012 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2013

Ave

rage

Pri

ce (

US

$)

iPad Non i-Pad Total

Lam. 100%



[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

23

LIB BATTERY SHORT TERM TRENDS

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

> 3Ah

2,8Ah

2.6Ah

2.4Ah

2.2Ah

2.0Ah

1.8Ah

<=1.6Ah

18650 battery capacity* Cellular phones battery capacity

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

> 1800 mAh

1600 mAh

1400 mAh

1200 mAh

1000 mAh

800 mAh

< 800 mAh

*1C rate or laptop type 18650 cells

Cylindrical/Prismatic/Laminates

in 2013

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Cylindrical Prismatic Laminates

Others

TESLA

Power Tools

Tablets

Portable PCs

Cellular

Cylindrical/Prismatic/Laminates

-

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

M c

ells

/ye

ar

Li-ion Cyl Li-ion PrLaminate Li-ion Cyl excl Tesla

Li-ion cylindrical: “Tesla impact”: 150 M cells in 2013, 300M in 2014, 600 M in 2015

Higher capacity, thinner battery, Pouch cells have the highest growth


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

24

BATTERY PRICE IS DECREASING

DRASTICALLY

In 10 Years 80% price decreasing

despite a fluctuating Co price

Average LIB cell price ($/Wh)

18650 oversupply ratio is

decreasing thanks to TESLA

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

-

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

Ove

r su

pp

ly R

atio

M c

ells

/Y

ear

Standard Demand TESLA

Production Capacity Oversupply ratio

0,00

0,20

0,40

0,60

0,80

1,00

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Cylindrical Prismatic Laminate

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1Q

09

2Q

09

3Q

09

4Q

09

1Q

10

2Q

10

3Q

10

4Q

10

1Q

11

2Q

11

3Q

11

4Q

11

M c

ells

/m

on

th

BAK

ATL

Lishen

E-One

LG

SDI

MAXELL

SONY

PANASONIC

SANYO

Production capacity 2009/2011:

from 150 to 250 M cells/month

Note- Q4 2013: Cylindrical: 0,17 $/Wh ; Laminates: 0,3$/Wh 0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140$

/kg

Ni & Co price 2003-2015

Ni

Co

Source: LME ‘03 ‘04 ‘05 ‘06 ‘07 ‘08 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11 ‘12 ‘13 ‘14 ‘15


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

LI-ION VALUE CHAIN – MARKET DEMAND

25

CATHODE

105 OOO T in 2014

Revenues: 2,5 B$

CAGR 04/14: +16%

ANODE

57 000 T

Revenues: 0,8 B$

CAGR 03/13: +14%

ELECTROLYTE

44 000 T

Revenues: 0,68 B$

CAGR 04/14 : 20%

SEPARATOR

695 M m²

Revenues: 1,15 B$

CAGR 04/14 : 18%

CELL

MANUFACTURERS

Revenues:

13,6 B$

Gross margin:

<10%

ANCILLARY

Revenues: 0,7 B$

PACK

MANUFACTURERS

Revenues:

19,6 B$

Gross margin:

<10%

BINDER

7 100 Tons

Revenues: 0,2 B$

CAGR 08/13 : 15%


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD:

CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIALS NEEDS

BY CHEMISTRY

Cathode active materials for LIB

in Tons, 2000-2014 (Demand)

26

(…)

LEADERS:

Internal 3% Nichia

13%

Umicore 16%

B&M 10%

Easpring 6%

Reshine 16%

L&F 16%

Other China

8%

Others 2%

Shan Shan 10%

LCO – >45 KT (2014) NMC1 – > 35 KT (2014)

Nichia 11%

Umicore 24%

Others 5%

Internal 11%

L&F 6%

ShanShan 8%

Reshine 3%

Other China 8%

TODA 4%

SUMITOMO 16%

NKS 4%

LMO – > 18 KT (2014) LFP – > 10 KT (2014)

Nichia 7%

Nippon Denko

8% Other

5% Internal

5%

JGC 16%

Qyanyun 11%

ShanShan 9%

Other China 31%

Reshine 8%

Tatung 12%

Aleees 18%

Other Japan

5%

Internal 6%

Clariant 5%

A123 10%

Formosa 8%

Valence 6%

Others 30%

1- Including NCA

SUPPLY

-

20 000

40 000

60 000

80 000

100 000

120 000

200

020

01

200

220

03

200

420

05

200

620

07

200

820

09

201

020

11

201

220

13

201

4

Ton

s

LFP

LMO

NCA

NMC

LCO


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

CATHODE ACTIVE MATERIAL

FORECASTS 2000-2025

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

2000 2005 2010 2013 2015 2020 2025

Ton

s

LFP

LMO

NCA

NMC

LCO

Cathode active materials

2000-2025 - Tons

Cathode active materials in

2014: 105 000 Tons

27

ASSUMPTIONS:

Portable devices: 2013-2025: +11% per year in volume

HEV 4,8 M HEV/year in 2020 - 35% LIB 6,8 M HEV in 2025 90% LIB

P-HEV 0,4 M P-HEV/year in 2020, 0,7 M in 2025 100% LIB

EV 1M EV/year in 2020, 1,5M/year in 2025 100% LIB

Industrial & stationary 2013-2025: +16% per year

Assumption: Tesla keep NCA chemistry and have a relative success (200 000 EV sold per year in 2025 – TESLA forecast 500 000)

LCO 40%

NMC 22%

NCA 9%

LMO 19%

LFP 10%

Cathode active materials in

2025: > 350 000 Tons

LCO 30%

NMC 25%

NCA 10%

LMO 12%

LFP 23%


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

28

ANODE ACTIVE MATERIALS

57 000 TONS IN 2014

LIB Anode Materials

Source: Hitachi Chemical

Source: Sanyo, March 2011

LIB Anode market, (Tons)

LIB Anode Materials

Source: A. Jossen, IRES 2007

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

To

ns

LTO

Si or Sn Type

Amorphous Carbon

Meso-Phase

Artificial Graphite

Natural Graphite


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

ANODE FOR LIB IN 2014

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

SANYO

SONY

PANASONIC

SDI

LGC

BYD

Lishen

Maxell

ATL

BAK

A123

Others

ARTIFICIAL

MCMB

NATURAL

Amorphous

METAL

29

Natural graphite become a commodity

Note: MCMB: Mesocarbon Microbeads

Source: Hitachi Chemical

Natural Graphite

64%

Artificial Graphite

26%

MCMB 4%

Amorphous 4%

Si or Sn Type 1%

LTO 1%

Carbon for LIB anodes by type (2013)

(…)

NEW ENTRANTS ON THE FIELD: LEADERS:

Hard Carbon

Soft Carbon

Graphite

Capacity (/g)

400 mAh/g 250 mAh/g 325-375 mAh/g

Capacity (/cc)

++ 0 +

Power ++ + 0

Stability ++ + 0

Cyclability ++ + 0

Precursors Petroleum Pitch, Resin,

cellulose, wood,

coconuts…

Petroleum coke

Natural or petroleum

coke

COST 2012->2020

30 -> 25 $/kg

25->20 $/kg

15 -> 10 $/kg

SUPPLIERS KUREHA

HITACHI HITACHI BTR

& many others


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

LIB SEPARATOR MARKET 2014

LIB separator market, M$,

CAGR 2004/2014: +17%

LIB Separator supplier, market

share in 2014

30

Others: TDK/Nitto Denko, Foshan Jinhui Hi-Tech, Shenzhen Senior Technology Material, Xinxiang Green next Energy, Dupont,…

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

M$

Evonik, TEIJIN, HIFUTURE, UBE-MAXELL (…)


ASAHI 25%

TORAY 23%

SUMITOMO 1%

ENTEK 3%

SK 13%

CELGARD 14%

UBE 7%

Others 14%


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

ELECTROLYTE SUPPLIERS/CUSTOMERS

44 000 TONS IN 2014

LIB electrolyte market, Tons,

CAGR 2004/2014: +23%

LIB electrolyte supplier, market

share in 2014

31

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Ton

s

Cellular Portable PC TabletsPower tools E-bikes HEVPHEV EV Others

Note: (1) GTHR: Zhangjiagang Guotai-Huarong


Zhangjiagang Guotai-Huang JINNIU

UBE 5% Mitsubishi

Chem 14%

In-house 9%

Tomiyama 3%

PANAX-ETEC 13%

GTHR 15% Mitsui

3%

Jinniu 8%

Cap Chem 8%

ShanShan 7%

Soulbrain 7%

Others 8%


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

LIB ELECTROLYTE MARKET 2014

Electrolyte Battery makers &

suppliers relation in 2014

Electrolyte maker sales

2005-2013

32

Ube

Mitsubishi

In-House

Tomiyama

PANAX (2)

GTHR

Mitsui

Jinniu Capchem Shanshan Soulbrain

-

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000

5 000

6 000

200

5

200

6

200

7

200

8

2009

201

0

201

1

201

2

201

3

Ton

s Ube Mitsubishi In-House

Tomiyama PANAX GTHR

Mitsui Jinniu Capchem

Shanshan Soulbrain

(2) Panax-Etec bought Samsung Chiel activities in 2010 (1) Full electrolyte formulation in-house

0 5000 10000

Sony

Panasonic

SDI

LG Chem

BYD

Lishen

Maxell

ATL

BAK

A123

NEC

YUASA (LEJ)

Yuasa (BEC)

TOSHIBA

Others

Tons

Mitsubishi Chem In-house Tomiyama

PANAX-ETEC GTHR Mitsui

Jinniu Cap Chem ShanShan

Soulbrain Others


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS

2014-2025

Portable PCs, net-book, Ultra-book Cellular Phones, Smart-phones Tablets Camcorders Cordless Tools, Gardening tools Digital Camera Games, MP3 Cordless Phones Shavers, Toothbrush, RC Cars E-bikes Power tools Security lighting Vehicles: HEV, P-HEV, EV Industrial motive (forklift) Industrial stationary (UPS, Telecom) Medical Energy Storage (Small / large)

Applications covered Parameters analysis

33

Main segment trends

Power need trends (volume, weight, capacity, running time)

Penetration rate for each Chemistry, each form factor,

2013 -2025 Forecasts

OEM strategies and positions

Main drivers & limiters


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

34

CELLULAR PHONES

FORECASTS 2010-2025

-

1 000

2 000

3 000

4 000 OTHERS

INDIA

ASIA

CHINA

JAPAN

EUROPE

USA

Cellular phones demand (M Units)

CAGR 2010-2025: +6%

Cellular Phones market Drivers

Emergent market

Renewal ratio increase

Smartphone penetration increase

LIB cells for cellular phones

trends

Laminates ratio increase

Increase of Thickness

Increase of >1400 mAh capacity

LIB cells demand 2014-2025

Polymer penetration: 50% -> 75%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Polymer

Prismatic

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses

Cyl. 25%

Pris. 25%

Lam. 50%



[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

35

PORTABLE ELECTRONIC DEVICES

FORECASTS 2010-2025

0

100

200

300

400

Emerging

Mature

Portable PCs demand (M Units)

2010-2025 CAGR: +4%

Portable PCs market trends

Mature market stable or decreasing

Growth driven by Emerging market

Ultrabook is increasing (20(1) to 60% in 2013(2))

ASP decreasing (<499$ Portable PCs increase from 25% in 2010 to 33% in 2012

(1) Samsung & AVICENNE (2) Intel Source: IDC, Gartner, AVICENNE Energy

LIB cells for portable PCs trends

Thinner cells

Polymer penetration increasing from 7% in 2010 to 28% in 2025

> 2800 mAh for Premium/corporate

2.2 Ah for consumer, emerging market

LIB cells demand 2010-2025

Polymer penetration: 7% -> 28%

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Laminate

Prismatic

Cylindrical


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

2025 LIB FORECASTS FOR PORTABLE

ELECTRONIC DEVICES

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

2000

2005

2010

2013

2014

2015

2020

2025

MW

h

Others

Household

Toys

MP3

Video Games

Digital Camera

Camcorders

Cordless Phones

Tablets

Portable PCs

Cellular Phones

2000-2025 LIB market, MWh, by

application (3C)

2000-2025 LIB market, M cells,

by form factor (3C)

36

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

M c

ells

/yea

r

Li-PLi-ion PrLi-ion CylTakeshita - March 2013 (1)

(1) Source: Takeshita, Battery Japan 2013 BJ-3 conference – Slide p 4 Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

X-EV MARKET

Why x-EV ?

Definition & segmentation

X-EV worldwide in 2013 By country

By car makers

By battery chemistry

X-EV forecasts AVICENNE ENERGY & other analyst forecasts

Battery chemistry forecasts

Battery cost forecasts

X-EV battery forecasts

37


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

SAFETY ISSUES

38

Li-ion and LMP are not thermally stable what raises serious

safety concerns

In the 80’s, lithium metal batteries were put into the markets (Moli Energy). Their further development has for a long time been slow because of a low cycle efficiency and safety issues: High chemical reactivity and a low melting point enable strong chemical reactions, even explosions. In the charging-discharging process, lithium metal can form dendrite and accumulate on electrodes. The growing lithium dendrite could puncture the separator and result in an internal short circuit.

• CONSEQUENCES: Except BOLLORE, all the companies developing Li metal batteries cancelled their projects

Bac

kg

rou

nd

M

ob

ile

Li-ion batteries for mobile devices mostly used a Lithium Cobalt Oxide Cathode and liquid

electrolyte.

In case of overcharging or short-circuit (contact between anode & cathode) a chain reaction

starts -> heating & gasing -> fire (“Thermal runaway”)

CONSEQUENCES: In 2006, SONY had to recall millions of portable PCs for total costs of

400 million USD, more than there profit-to-date

Au

tom

oti

ve

A

irc

raft

Boing 787: The fire that burned near the tail of a parked Boeing 787 in Boston was caused

by an overheating Lithium ion battery pack. The battery fire could have been hot enough to

melt the carbon-fiber reinforced plastic that makes up the plane’s shell.

CONSEQUENCES: All the 787 worldwide are grounded. Considerable losses for Boing.

With new cathode chemistry, most of the automotive today on the markets experienced safety concerns:

(1) BYD Taxi in China with a lithium iron phosphate cathode (2) GM Volt in the US with a LG Chemical battery using LMO cathodes (as a result of a crashed tested Chevrolet Volt caught three weeks after the testing !) (3) PRIUS P-HEV in the US (converted from HEV Prius by a local engineering company without any authorisation by Toyota)


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

SAFETY IS A SINE-QUA-NON SELECTION

CRITERIA FOR BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES

39

Some technologies are already out of the game due to

stability issues


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

LIB BATTERY COST

Raw material cost (Co, Mn, Ni, Al, Cu, …)

Anode, cathode, Electrolyte , separator, binders, Cu & Al foil, etc… cost structure :

CAPEX,

labor cost,

R&D

Marketing, Adm, Overhead, margin)

Raw material needs / mAh

Electrode process Yield

Assembly Process Yield

Cell manufacturing cost

Module manufacturing cost

Pack assembly cost

…

Costs analysis Battery price in 2013

$/kWh

40

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

LIB18650

cell

LIB EVCell

LIB packfor EV

LIB HEVcell

LIB packfor HEV


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

BATTERY & POWER ELEC. COST IN EV

41 AVICENNE ENERGY - CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION

€ 8,250 -€ 18,100

€ 5,500 -€ 8,000

€ 50 -€ 300

€ 1,000 -€ 2,500

€ 100 -€ 400 € 50 -

€ 400

HV batt. Pack for EV€ 8,150 -€ 15,100

€ 150 -€ 350 € 900 -

€ 1,250

€ 150 -€ 350

€ 150 -€ 250 € 300 -

€ 500

€ 1,500 -€ 3,000

Charger

DC/DCconverter

InverterRectifier

GeneratorInverter

HV battery

cell Packaging material

LV batterypack

CoolingSyst

HVCables &

Connectors

Batt.MagtSyst

Batt.Packaging

Manuf.

Overall

HV batt. CELL

for EV

0 €

2 000 €

4 000 €

6 000 €

8 000 €

10 000 €

12 000 €

Power Elec

Pack Manufacturing

BMS

Thermal Mgmt + packaging

Cell manu

Cell Active Hybrid 5 Volt Bluecar Leaf

HEV P-HEV EV


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

LI-ION BATTERY COST

2013-2020

LIB cell average cost (36Ah pouch)

(EV design ; LMO/NMC cathode)

LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST

FOR EV

42

* For Production > 100 000 packs/year

(1) Active materials only

2015* 2020* 2014*

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Ce

ll

Pac

k

Ce

ll

Pac

k

Ce

ll

Pac

k

$ /

kW

h

Pack Cost

CellManufacturing

OtherMaterials

Separator

Electrolyte

Anode

Cathode0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2014 2015 2020

$ /

kW

h

Margin

Warranty

Overheads

Sales & Adm

R&D

Energy, utilities

Direct labor

Depreciation

Others

Separator

Electrolyte

Anode (1)

Cathode (1)


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

HEV FORECASTS

2000-2020

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

HEV

pen

etra

tio

n (

% o

f to

tal c

ar s

ales

)

USA EUROPE JAPAN

OTHERS WORLD

HEV MARKET: 2,5 Million units in 2015 – 5 M in 2020 – 7 M in 2025

43

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Mill

ion

USA EUROPE JAPAN OTHERS

Micro hybrid not included



[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

LONG TERM HEV FORECAST

FROM 3 TO 8 M HEV IN 2020

44

AVICENNE ENERGY FORECASTS ARE REALISTIC

COMPARE TO OTHER ANALYSTS

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Compilation, February 2013

Micro hybrid not included

AVICENNE

Roland Berger

Credit Suisse (2010)

Deutsche Bank (2010)

AAB

Pike Research

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2010 2015 2020 2025

Mill

ion

HEV

wo

rld

wid

e /

Year


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

X EV FORECASTS

2011-2020

EV sold, in million units,

worldwide, 2010 - 2020

EV impact on the LIB & raw

material market is HUGE

45

IIT, March 2011 Fort Lauderdale IIT, March 2010 Fort Lauderdale Deutsche Bank , Electric Cars: Plugged In 2 – Nov 2009 Roland BERGER, Oct 2011, Batteries 2011 Cannes AAB, AABC Europe, Mainz, June 2011

4

50

45

400

1000

10000

25000

1 10 100 1 000 10 000 100 000

Mobile Phone

Portable PC

Power Tools

E-bikes

HEV

P-HEV

EV

Average Wh per device

0

1

2

3

4

5

2010 2015 2020

Nu

mb

er o

f EV

so

ld w

orl

dw

ide

( M

illio

n)

AAB (2012)

AVICENNE 2007-2012


IIT (MARCH 2010)



IIT (MARCH 2011)


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

XEV 2025 FORECASTS

0,9

2,5

5

7

0,15

0,5

0,65

0,37

1

1,5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2010 2015 2020 2025

Mill

ion

car

s

EV

P-HEV

HEV

HEV, P-HEV & EV market

forecasts up to 2025

LIB penetration in HEV

2010-2025

46

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2010 2015 2020 2025

NiMH LIB


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND FOR AUTO

FORECASTS

EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery

needs (MWh)

CAGR 2013-2020: +23%

47 (1) Pack level Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2013

Rechargeable battery market for

Auto(1), M$ for x-EV 2000-2025

CAGR 2014-2020: +14%

-

10 000

20 000

30 000

40 000

50 000

60 000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

M W

h

NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV

LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV

-

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

20 000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025M

$

NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV

LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

35 MILLION MICRO-HYBRIDS CAR IN

2020

Micro-hybrids car market

2010-2020

Advantages of micro-hybrid

compare to HEV

48

Powered by Advanced lead acid batteries

Much more profitable than full HEV: 8 to 10 times less expensive than full HEV to save 5% gasoline instead of 20% (4 times less)

Much more impact on CO2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2010 2015 2020

Mill

ion

Micro-hybrid car sold per year

AVICENNE

OptimisticScenario

JD Power

Valeo

Micro-hybrid Full HEV

Battery Advanced lead acid

NiMH or LIB

Cost ($) 300 3000

Fuel saving 5% 20%

Million Vehicle sold per year in 2020

35 3.5


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

HEV, P-HEV AND EV REALITY OF THE MARKET WILL

BOOST MICRO HYBRID AND ADVANCED LEAD ACID

BATTERIES

49

Stand

ard

Lead acid

Batteries

2010 2015 2020 AFTER

Li-ion

batteries

NiM

H b

atte

ries

STANDARD CAR

88.5% EV

P-HEV

FULL

HEV

1%

MILD

HEV

0.5%

MICRO

HYBRIDS

10%

Ad

vanced

Lead acid

NiM

H

STANDARD CAR

44%

MICRO HYBRID

50%

EV

P-HEV

2%

FULL

HEV

4%

ULTRA

BATTERY Li-Air, Li-S, Fuel Cells Li-ion


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

0

50 000

100 000

150 000

200 000

250 000

300 000

350 000

400 000

450 000

1990 2000 2010 2013

MW

h


Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lead Acid


1990-2013

Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share)

50


Lead Acid Batteries

330 GWh for US $ 30 Billion

64%

33% 3%

SLI

Industrial

E-bikes

24%

22%

12%

40% 2%

Telecom

UPS

OtherStationary

Forklift

Othermotive

Industrial Batteries

54 GWh for US $ 10 Billion


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

BATTERY FOR OTHER APPLICATION

US$ 18 BILLION1 MARKET

51




Battery Market M$

Power Tools 1400

E-bikes 2290

Industrial

Motive

Forklifts 3 570

Others 180

TOTAL MOTIVE 3 750

Stationary

Telecom back-up 2 900

UPS 2 400

Misc. Standby 315

ESS 450

Seismic (1) 210

Other Stationary 1090

Total STATIONARY 7 370

TOTAL INDUSTRIAL 11 120

Medical Cart 150

Wheelchair 47

Medical Device (1) 1150

Marine 450

Others 1 000

TOTAL 17 600

(1) 500 M$ for Li-ion - Source: Zprime 2011

Portable

Automotive

SLI

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000SLI

Automotive

Portable

OtherApplicationsMarine

Medical devices

Wheelchair

Medical Cart

Other Stationary

Seismic

ESS

Other Stand-by

UPS

Telecom

Other Motive

Forklift

Power Tools

E-Bikes


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015


IN 2013: US $ 54 BILLION

Portable

Automotive

SLI

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000SLI

Automotive

Portable

Other Applications

Marine

Medical devices

Wheelchair

Medical Cart

Other Stationary

Seismic

ESS

Other Stand-by

UPS

Telecom

Other Motive

Forklift

Power Tools

E-Bikes

52




0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

Lead Acid LIB

Other Applications

Marine

Medical devices

Wheelchair

Medical Cart

Other Stationary

Seismic

ESS

Other Stand-by

UPS

Telecom

Other Motive

Forklift

Power Tools

E-Bikes


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

TOTAL POTENTIAL MARKET ANALYZED

IN THE SURVEY (M$, PACK LEVEL1)

Application details US$ 18 Billion in 2013

53

E-Bikes 12%

Power Tools 9%

Forklift 20%

Telecom 17%

UPS 14%

Medical devices

6%

Marine 3% Other App 6%

E-Bikes

Power Tools

Forklift

Other Motive

Telecom

UPS

Other Stand-by

ESS

Seismic

Other Stationary

Medical Cart

Wheelchair

Medical devices

Marine

Other App (2)


2- Other App: Military, aerospace, Oil & Gas, Railways, Aviation, Utility metering,…

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY 2013

1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 10 11 6

Battery Market M$

Power Tools 1400

E-bikes 2290

Industrial

Motive

Forklifts 3 570

Others 180

TOTAL MOTIVE 3 750

Stationary

Telecom back-up 2 900

UPS 2 400

Misc. Standby 315

ESS 450

Seismic (1) 210

Other Stationary 1090

Total STATIONARY 7 370

TOTAL INDUSTRIAL 11 120

Medical Cart 150

Wheelchair 47

Medical Device (1) 1150

Marine 450

Others 1 000

TOTAL 17 600


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

“OTHER APPLICATIONS”

10 B$ POTENTIAL MARKET1

0

2 000

4 000

6 000

8 000

10 000

12 000

14 000

16 000

18 000

Lead Acid LIB

Other Applications

Marine

Medical devices

Wheelchair

Medical Cart

Other Stationary

Seismic

ESS

Other Stand-by

UPS

Telecom

Other Motive

Forklift

Power Tools

E-Bikes

54



For Power tools, NiCd batteries are used rather than lead acid batteries

1- Pack level

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

Lead Acid LIB


> U

S$ 1

0 B

> U

S$ 7

B


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

LI-ION CELL & PACK MARKET DETAILS

Li-ion cell market (B$) Li-ion Pack market1 (B$)

55

1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included

2- Others: Batteries for Power tools, E-bikes, Industrial, medical…

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis 2014

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

2005 2010 2013 2015 2020 2025

Others (2)

Automotive

Portable

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

2005 2010 2013 2015 2020 2025

Others (2)

Automotive

Portable

Portable: from 28 to 83 GWh

Automotive: from 6 to 50 GWh

« Others »: from 5 to 30 GWh

2013 -2025


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

TAKEAWAYS

56

Others: Automatic handling equipment, forklifts, back-up, UPS, Telecom, medical devices, Residential ESS, Grid ESS, …

Li-ion battery is driven today by Portable PCs & electronic devices (smartphones, tablets) For HEV, the battery technology is today the NiMH In 2012, most of the car makers (except Toyota) switch to Li-ion P-HEV & EV will be powered by Li-ion: 6 B$ market in 2015 - 11 B$ in 2020 & 15 B$ in 2025 EV expectations attract large Chemical companies New materials are needed to meet Automotive standards HEV will account for less than 5% of the automotive sales in 2020 P-HEV & EV < 2% by 2020 Micro-hybrid will achieve >50% Lead acid battery will be the first market in 2025 in volume & value A very small EV market in the automotive world will represent a huge market for batteries New LIB applications: UPS, Telecom, Forklift, Medical, Residential ESS, Grid ESS: CAGR > 15% in the next 15 years In 2020, Energy storage will represent less than 5% of the total battery market

Battery Market 2010-2025

CAGR = +10%

RECHARGEABLE BATTERY

MARKET WORLDWIDE

2000-2025

2000 2010 2020 2025

MW

h Others

LIB

NiMH

NiCd

Lead Acid

2000 2005 2010 2013 2015 2020 2025

Lead Acid (+4%) NiCd (-5%)NiMH (-4%) LIB for 3C (+3%)LIB for xEV (+16%) LIB for Others* (+16%)Others

25 B$

54B$

64 B$ 83 B$

> 100 B$

280 GWh

380 GWh

575 GWh

775 GWh

18

10

13

52

32

(CAGR 2012-2025)

15

(Pack level) 4,3


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

THANK YOU

Christophe PILLOT

AVICENNE ENERGY

[email protected]

Phone: +33 1 47 78 46 00

Mobile: + 33 6 88 82 79 49

57

About

AVICENNE ENERGY

AVICENNE ENERGY

JANUARY 2015

Christophe PILLOT

[email protected]

+33(0)1 4778 4600


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

AVICENNE PROFILE

Creation: 1992, by Ali MADANI

Headquarter: Paris

Liaison Office: Japan, USA

AVICENNE Energy Director: Christophe Pillot

5 consultants A Madani C Pillot JP Salvat X Zhang A Yassari

Information for Growth - Powering your company’s market strategy

with in-depth research

60

The Rechargeable Battery market

23rd Edition

Customized

survey


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

OUR BUSINESS STORY

61

1992 •AVICENNE Creation

1994

•AVICENNE advised French Industry Ministry on the European battery business opportunities

•AVICENNE open its office in JAPAN

1999 •« BATTERIES » congress 1st edition in Paris

2003 •AVICENNE work on the due diligence process for the sales of SAFT by ALCATEL

2008 •AVICENNE: expert witness in the NTT-Hydro Quebec conflict

2009 •AVICENNE presented its market forecasts to industrials (CIAPS) in Beijing – China

2010 •Avicenne developed partnership with BATTERY JAPAN •20thEdition of “The rechargeable battery market worldwide 2010-2020

2011 •AVICENNE Energy division is created •13th Edition of BATTERIES Congress

2012 •21st Edition of “The rechargeable battery market worldwide 2011-2025

2014

•23rd Edition of our Battery Market Syrvey

•16th Edition of BATTERIES Congress in NICE, France

• 1 month mission in China: Qinghai EV Rally, CIBF, 50 companies visited


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

OUR METHODOLOGY

MARKET & STRATEGIC ANALYSIS

Primary Research Secondary Research

Executive Interviews Vendor Briefings Product Demos and Tours

Company News & Financials Technology & Product Specs Government Data Economic, Demographic Data

Consumer Surveys Business Leader Surveys

Case Studies Reference Customers

Qualitative Quantitative Strategic

Business Models & Trends Technology Issues Policy & Regulatory Factors Competitive Landscape Profiles of Key Players

Company News & Financials Technology & Product Specs Government Data Economic, Demographic Data

SWOT Analysis Gap Analysis Business Plan Value Proposition Due Diligence Merger & Acquisition

Track valuable Information's

Strategic Analysis

Presentation of the results

Q&A with customers

Customer Evaluation

INFORMATION COLLECTION

SUP

PLY

SI

DE

DEM

AN

D

SID

E


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

METHODOLOGY: EXTENSIVE FIELD RESEARCH TO

RETRIEVE & CROSS CHECK INFORMATION

In Depth analysis Of applications

Cross Check Analysis

Battery Makers

OEM

Raw materials suppliers

Environment & recycling

BMS

Electronics

Substitution technologies

Conferences & Exhibitions

Top management contact network > 19 000 contacts


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

CUSTOMIZED & MULTICLIENT SURVEY

FOR ALL THE VALUE CHAIN

Raw Materials

BMS & Electronics

Cooling Systems

Power Electronics

Batteries

Source : Photo from BASF


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

MORE THAN 200 REFERENCES

WORLDWIDE 3M A123 AIR LIQUIDE AIR PRODUCT AHLSTROM ALCATEL AMPEREX (ATL) APPLIED MATERIALS ARKEMA AROS SECURITIES ARC ASHLAND ATL AMPEREX AT KEARNEY AUSTRIAN INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY AXEON BAIN BASF BATTERY ASSOCIATION OF KOREA BAYER BLACK & DECKER BHP BILLITON BRAND LICENCING PARNERS (BLP) BOURNS BOSCH BOOZ BRUCKNER BUHLER GMBH BYD CABOT CALL2RECYCLE CAP X CATELLA CARBONE LORRAINE CARLYLE CATELLA CATERPILLAR INC. CDN COBALT CEA/LITEN CELGARD CHEMETALL CHEMISHE FABRIK BUDENHEIM CIBA CIAPS CHINA COGEMA CONOCO PHILIPS CRU GROUP CSC CHALLENGE STRATEGY CHANGE DELTA DGA

DIALOG SEMICONDUCTOR DOW CHEMICAL DOW CORNING DUPONT DURACELL EDF ELECTRO ENERGY ENER 1 ENERGIZER EOLITE EPCOS OHG ERAMET ETC AB FACOM FALCON BRIDGE FAIRSHILD SEMICONDUCTOR FAMEART FIST FLORIDIENNE DE CHIMIE FMC FORTU POWER CELL FRANCE TELECOM FREUDENBERG VLIESSTOFFE SE & CO FRAUNHOFER INSTITUTE FULTON INNOVATION GAIA GIL IMPORT BATTERIES LTD. GS MELCOTEC HC STARCK HILTI HITACHI MAXELL HOLLINGSWORTH & VOSE CIE HONEYWELL HPL (HIGH POWER LITHIUM) HUTCHINSON ICC NEXERGY IER IGL EXPORT. INTERNATIONAL COMPONENT CORP. INTERNATIONAL RECTIFIER INTEK INTEL INTERSIL INCO ISRAEL CONSULTING ITRI ITS JBC JETRO JOHNSON CONTROLS

JOHNSON MATTHEY KODAK KRUGER LAZARD LECLANCHÉ LEGRAND LG CHEMICAL LION CELLS LITTLE FUSE LILIPUCIAN LYNAS CORP MATSUSHITA MICROSOFT MTI MICRO FUEL CELLS MOLTECH MOLYCORP MOMENTIVE MOSAID TECHNOLOGIES MOTOROLA MUNSTER UNIVERSITY NANOCYL NCCP – RUSSIA NEC NITECH NKKPC NORILSK NICKEL NOVALED NTK POWERDEX OLIVER WYMAN OMG INC ORANGE OSKR PANASONIC PHILIPS PHOTON PK & WISE PLEXTRONICS POWER GENIX PRAYON PRISMARK PSA RAYOVAC RECHARGE RENAULT RHODIA ROLAND BERGER ROSKILL INFORMATION SERVICES SAFT SAGENTIA SAINT GOBAIN

SAKTI SAMSUNG SDI SANIK SCHRODER VENTURE SCOTENT ENTREPRISE SEPCELL SFPZ SHENZHEN HIGH POWER TECHNOLOGY SCHOTT AG SKC SQM SVE - DASSAULT SOLVAY SONY STIBAT STORCK STRATEGY ANALYSIS TERRAROSSA CAPITAL TIGER GLOBAL TODA KOGYO TOTAL TOTAL WIRELESS SOLUTION TOYO TOYOTA TREOFAN TYCO UMICORE UNIROSS URALELEMENT US NAVY VARTA VOLTRACK WACKER CHEMIE AG WARBURGPINCUS WILDCAT WORLD INDUSTRIAL INFORMATION CENTER WR GRACE & CIE YASLAMEN ZEBRA ZPOWER

65


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

SPEAKER, CHAIRMAN OR WORKSHOP

MODERATOR

Extended Battery Life Working Group on battery technology development for mobile devices Meeting Tokyo Japan , Dec 2014 – 1h30 Presentation “The battery market for mobile 2013-2025”

BATTERIES 2014, FRANCE – (1999-2014) Owner, chairman & speaker “The battery market 2013-2025”

INTERNATIONAL Li-ion BATTERY SUMMIT – Dec 2013, Shenzhen, China “The Li-ion battery raw materials market 2012-2020”

AABC Europe, Mainz (2012, 2013, 2015) “The Lithium ion raw material battery market 2010-2020”

THE INTERNATIONAL BATTERY SEMINAR - FLORIDA Fort Lauderdale, Florida , March 2014 – 2h tutorial

“HEV, PHEV & EV market 2010-2020 ; Battery is the key” (From 2004 to 2014)

EVER 2009, 2011, MONACO “Challenges for EV market in Europe”

EVS 2011, 2013 “Battery market for automotive industry”

CIAPS (China Industrial Association of Power sources), BEIJING, Dec 2009 “Advanced battery market & raw materials worldwide”

Advanced Battery for Vehicles, IQPC, Frankfort, 2009, 2010, 2012 Chairman & speaker,

“The battery business 2009-2020”

EET-2008 European Ele-Drive, MOTOR SHOW GENEVA, International Advanced Mobility Forum – Geneva Motor Show (Professor Gaston Maggetto Award: C. Pillot as the best rated paper & presentation by EET-2008 Scientific Reviewing Committee)

“The HEV & EV market trends & main challenges”

China Industry Battery Fair 2006, 2010, 2014 “The Chinese battery Industry”

…

Tens of INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCES per year

https://powersources.net/florida/28th.html


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO

HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTS

0

1

2

3

4

5

2010 2015 2020

Nu

mb

er o

f EV

so

ld w

orl

dw

ide

( M

illio

n)

EV sold, in million units, worldwide,

2010 - 2020

Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale

2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011

67

HEV powered by Lithium ion battery forecasts from 2008 to 2012

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

1,4

1,6

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mill

ion

HEV

po

we

red

by

LIB

IIT 2007

IIT 2008

IIT 2009

IIT 2010

AVICENNE 2007

REALITY AAB (2012)

AVICENNE 2007-2012


IIT (MARCH 2010)



IIT (MARCH 2011)


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

BATTERIES 2015

3 days congress in France (Paris, Nice, Cannes)

17th Edition (first edition in 1999)

500 attendees

40 Booths Battery makers, raw materials suppliers, IC & BMS suppliers, tests, machining, coating,

80 international experts: Researchers, industrial process, marketing, financials,

www.batteriesevent.com


[email protected]




& EXHIBIT

March 9, 2015

SUMMARY

A small team dedicated on the battery industry since almost 20 years

Working with large group worldwide: FMC, Umicore, Dupont, Dow, Panasonic, LG, Samsung, JCI, Nokia, Bosch, Siemens, Toyota, Renault, …

Synthetic presentation to management & CEO of major groups

We will help and support your growth

Knowledge

Methodology

Expert Network

Flexibility

Documents

The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends … Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2014-2025 Director, AVICENNE ENERGY Christophe PILLOT 32nd INTERNATIONAL BATTERY SEMINAR