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The Results are In!
Child Outcomes for OSEP EI and ECSE Programs
Donna SpikerEarly Childhood Outcomes Center
at SRI International
October 13, 2011(CCSSO-SCASS Meeting)
San Francisco, CA
What we will cover
• Quick review of the reporting requirement and state approaches
• Share the national data• Describe how the national data were computed• Discuss the quality of the national data• Discuss next steps for states• Framework and self-assessment (briefly. …)
2Early Childhood Outcomes Center
3Early Childhood Outcomes Center
OSEP Reporting Requirements: Child Outcomes
• Positive social emotional skills (including positive social relationships)
• Acquisition and use of knowledge and skills (including early language/ communication [and early literacy])
• Use of appropriate behaviors to meet their needs
4Early Childhood Outcomes Center
OSEP Reporting Categories
Percentage of children who: a. Did not improve functioningb. Improved functioning, but not sufficient to move nearer
to functioning comparable to same-aged peers c. Improved functioning to a level nearer to same-aged
peers but did not reach itd. Improved functioning to reach a level comparable to
same-aged peerse. Maintained functioning at a level comparable to same-
aged peers
3 outcomes x 5 “measures” = 15 numbers
Illustration of 5 Possible Paths
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56
Age in Months
Sco
re
Maintained functioning comparable to age peers
Achieved functioning comparable to age peers
Moved nearer functioning comparable to age peers
Made progress; no change in trajectory
Did not make progress
The Summary Statements
1. Of those children who entered the program below
age expectations in each outcome, the percent who
substantially increased their rate of growth by the
time they turned 3 years of age or exited the
program.
2. The percent of children who were functioning within
age expectations in each outcome by the time they
turned 3 years of age or exited the program.
6Early Childhood Outcomes Center
State Approaches to Outcomes Data
Approach Part C (56
states/jurisdictions)
Preschool(59
states/jurisdictions)
COS 7 pt. scale 41/56 (73%) 37/59 (63%)
One tool statewide 7/56 (13%) 9/59 (15%)
Publishers’ online analysis
3/56 (5%) 6/59 (10%)
Other 5/56 (9%) 7/59 (12%)
Early Childhood Outcomes Center 8
Note: Based on 29 States with highest quality data
Social relationships Knowledge and skills Action to meet needs
a 0.016548176502116 0.0148974177446063 0.0145225115393539
b 0.179791044501509 0.199542744006337 0.174681665026758
c 0.185932320590048 0.247993957138402 0.214074779812331
d 0.294138593838747 0.369311305766879 0.370708975497374
e 0.323587775084598 0.168236271568794 0.226016769460911
3%
8%
13%
18%
23%
28%
33%
38%
Estimated Data for Part C, 2009-10
Early Childhood Outcomes Center 9
Note: Based on 29 States with highest quality data
Social relationships Knowledge and skills Action to meet needs
SS1 0.70973347275746 0.742180533377054 0.755546347980436
SS2 0.61772636892334 0.537547577335669 0.596725744958282
5%
15%
25%
35%
45%
55%
65%
75%
Estimated Summary Statement Data for Part C, 2009-10
Early Childhood Outcomes Center 10
Social relationships Knowledge and skills Action to meet needs
a 0.0173423475321513 0.0182367034048671 0.0164717096861928
b 0.114520004403404 0.133727833654954 0.108153036923834
c 0.281561785450637 0.32470410889358 0.208844242808853
d 0.343437919521324 0.343977608174791 0.356458315050576
e 0.243152978902516 0.179335862613809 0.310081127789364
3%
8%
13%
18%
23%
28%
33%
38%
Estimated National Data for Early Childhood Special Education, 2009-2010
Note: Based on 33 States with highest quality data
11Early Childhood Outcomes Center
Note: Based on 33 States with highest quality data
Social relationships Knowledge and skills Action to meet needs
SS1 0.825777563121165 0.814823334298583 0.819365394291995
SS2 0.586590898423841 0.523313470788598 0.666539442839937
10%
30%
50%
70%
90%
Estimated National Summary Statements for Early Childhood Special Education, 2009-2010
Criteria for States with Quality Data
1. Low percentage of missing data
2. No odd patterns in “a” or “e” categories
3. Did not use questionable data collection methods
12Early Childhood Outcomes Center
Problem with Missing Data
• We don’t know how well the data the state has represent the entire state.
• If the data are representative, the percentages for the a to e Progress Categories and the Summary Statements won’t change as data are added on more children.
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Can we trust these data?
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Pattern checking for validity
• Checking across years–How do the 2009-10 compare to the
data for 2008-09?• Checking across methods
–How do the data for all states compare to states with highest quality data?
15Early Childhood Outcomes Center
All states 19 best All states 29 bestFFY 08-09 FFY 09-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
64.570.2
64
71
SS1: % who IncreasedGrowth Rates
Part C, Outcome A: Social Relationships
All states 19 best All states 29 bestFFY 08-09 FFY 09-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
6761.3
64.761.8
SS2: % who Exited at Age Expectations
Part C, Outcome B: Knowledge and Skills
All states 19 best All states 29 bestFFY 08-09 FFY 09-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
8070.4
76.6
68.1
74.2
SS1: % who Increased Growth Rates
All states 19 best All states 29 bestFFY 08-09 FFY 09-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
5953.9 55.8 53.8
SS2: % who Exited at Age Expectations
Part C, Outcome C: Meets Needs
All states 19 best All states 29 bestFFY 08-09 FFY 09-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
69.7
76
68.1
75.6
SS1: % who Increased Growth Rates
All states 19 best All states 29 bestFFY 08-09 FFY 09-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
64.660.5 61.5 59.7
SS2: % who Exited at Age Expectations
Part B Preschool: Social Relationships
All states 15 best All states 33 bestFFY 08-09 FFY 09-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
77.282.7
79.7 82.6
SS1: % who Increased Growth Rates
All states 15 best All states 33 bestFFY 08-09 FFY 09-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
61.758.7
62.158.7
SS2: % who Exited at Age Expectations
Part B Preschool: Knowledge and Skills
All states 15 best All states 33 bestFFY 08-09 FFY 09-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
76.282.7
78.381.5
SS1: % who Increased Growth Rates
All states 15 best All states 33 bestFFY 08-09 FFY 09-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
55.851.2
55.552.3
SS2: % who Exited at Age Expectations
Part B Preschool: Meets Needs
All states 15 best All states 33 bestFFY 08-09 FFY 09-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
75.381.6
78.181.9
SS1: % who Increased Growth Rates
All states 15 best All states 33 bestFFY 08-09 FFY 09-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
67.8 67.2 66.7 66.7
SS2: % who Exited at Age Expectations
What do these data tell us?
• Nationally, a high proportion of children who receive Part C and ECSE services are showing greater than expected progress.
• Nationally, many (over half) are exiting the program functioning like same age peers in at least one of the outcomes.
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Using data at state level……
• Never intended to compare states• OSEP wants states to begin by comparing
own data to past data• States set targets to compare yearly
performance to those targets• States implement program improvement
activities• OSEP looking at data in monitoring visits
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Linkages to other state EC efforts……
• Some states are beginning to develop linkages between these OSEP data and other assessment in their states, for example:– Colorado’s Results Matter– Results Matter in Nebraska– Kentucky Early Childhood Data System (KEDS)
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Colorado’s Results Matter
25Early Childhood Outcomes Center
Supporting States in Building a Child Outcomes Measurement System
(just briefly………)
Framework and Self-Assessment
• FRAMEWORK– Set of components and quality elements– Provides the structure for the self-assessment
• SELF-ASSESSMENT – Scale that provides criteria for levels of
implementation within each quality element– Rating assigned based on level of
implementation within each element
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Early Childhood Outcomes Center 28
Additional Information & Questions
Additional information:
www.the-eco-center.org
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Questions