The rise and fall of South African industry:

What has South Africa’s two nationalisms achieved?

By Moeletsi MbekiJuly 2009

Afrikaner nationalism: It’s main agenda was to ensureAfrikaner people caught up with English speaking whiteSouth Africans and to reduce the influence over South Africaof British Imperialism.

• Educate Afrikaner population• Raise poor Whites from poverty to skilled worker status• Build transport and communication infrastructure to bring

agricultural closer to its main markets in the cities• Promote Afrikaner entrepreneurs and state industrial

enterprises so as to provide jobs for Afrikaner professionals and tackle sanctions

• Attract other foreign investors besides the British especially into manufacturing sector

• Compensate to high White labour costs by driving down Black labour costs.

Black nationalism: The main agenda of Black nationalism was to achieve political equality between the races by restoring democracy that had been initiated by the British at the Cape Colony in the mid 19th century and to equalise the standard of living between Blacks and Whites while maintaining intact the inherited capitalist economic system.

•Negotiate a democratic system that was acceptable to Whites in general and to owners and controllers of South Africa’ economic commanding heights.

•Agree to sunset clause for the White civil service.•Follow neo-liberal economic policies to stabilise public

finances and national currency.•Accept Black Economic Empowerment and Affirmative

Action proposed by big business.•Drive income re-distribution to Black middle class and

social welfare to Black masses.

Economic Outcomes: 1909 to 19941. Afrikaner nationalism drove policies that led to the

industrialisation of South Africa in order to provide employment for Afrikaners.

2. Over time Afrikaner nationalism constructed society which was living on borrowed time because of inherent instability became a race against time to reduce the Afrikaner people’s dependence on the state.

Economic Outcomes: 1994 to 20091. Black nationalism’s main economic achievement became

wealth re-distribution in order to promote Black household consumption.

2. The promotion of increased household consumption resulted in greater imports of consumer goods leading to the partial de-industrialisation of South Africa.

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

CHINA

RUSSIA

INDIA

BRAZIL

SOUTH AFRICA

Consumer spending as percentage of GDP Bric comparison

% of GDP

Source: OECD

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1980 1985 1990 2000 2006

ZIM

RSA

Manufacturing as percentage of GDP: 1980 to 2006

South Africa - pinkZimbabwe - blue

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

Middle incomecountries

Netherlands

Ireland

European Union

South Africa

Employment trends in South Africa and elsewhere, 1980-2006

Source: World Development Indicators as reported in the WEFA data set

Source: Employment (1980=100) from International Labour Statistics (ILO)

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

19

801

981

19

821

983

19

841

985

19

861

987

19

881

989

19

901

991

19

921

993

19

941

995

19

961

997

19

981

999

20

002

001

20

022

003

20

042

005

20

06

Ireland Netherlands South Africa

Consumer spending as percentage of GDP

Developed Countries

• .

 

Compliments Financial Mail

Production and Employment Trends in SA Footwear Industry

Year Local Production Imports Employment

2006              20.35%     79.65% 10 100

2005                16.95%       83.05%

1995                47.91%           52.09% 23 600 (1997)

1985               78%             22%

Source: South African Footwear and Leather Industries Association

Breakdown of South Africa’s merchandise exports

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

pe

r ce

nt

share

Minerals Basic metals Basic chemicals & refinery products Pulp & paper Motor vehicles & parts Other goods exports

Source: Quantec

China's exports to SA

40%

15%

9%

9%

7%

6%

4%

2%

8%

Machinery & car components

Textiles

Footwear

Chemical products

Agricultural produce

Base metals or articles thereof

Mineral products

Building material

Other manufactured products

Source: Emerging Market Focus (Pty) Ltd 2004

SA exports to China

45%

26%

7%

5%

3%

8%

6%

Base metals & articles thereof (steel)

Mineral products

Chemical products

Paper pulp

Basic raw materials

Machinery, equipment, car & motorcomponents

Other

Source: Emerging Market Focus (Pty) Ltd 2004

Maths and science output of the SA schooling system

• Provide competent management to state owned enterprises such as SABC, SAA, Transnet and the Land Bank.

• Address erratic service delivery to its primary

Constituency in the black townships.

• Create modern passenger and freight transport system.

• Reorganise the commercial agricultural sector in order to restore food security and overcome the country’s dependence on food imports.

What the ANC failed to do between 1994 and 2009

What the ANC failed to do between 1994 and 2009 continued

• Achieve effective management of the country’s borders to stop a flood into South Africa of illegal immigrants from neighbouring countries which led to the xenophobic riots.

• Stop the de-industrialisation of the country in order to combat unemployment.

• Review affirmative action programmes which are contributing to the country’s brain drain.

• Address the HIV/AIDS pandemic which is leading to a sharp decline in the population’s life expectancy.

What the ANC failed to do between 1994 and 2009 continued

• Redesign the expensive education system that is unable to produce the skills required by employers.

• Develop policies to overcome rampant crime as well as corruption.

• Implement programmes that bring government closer to the people by implementing electoral reforms that increase the accountability of elected officials.

• Manage the country’s urbanization process to eliminate formal settlements and bring work places closer to workers’ residential areas.