The Role of Planning in The Role of Planning in Economic CrisisEconomic Crisis

Crisis, What Crisis?Crisis, What Crisis?

• 10% unemployment forecast through 2010• 1 million “discouraged” workers – 3x 4/2009• 15 million unemployed• 6.5 million out of work more than six months• 1.8% GDP growth, 4th Quarter 2009• Vermont foreclosures jumped 17% in 2009

– 60% between 2007 and 2009• 2011 Shortfall in State Revenues $150 M

When traditional planning fails…When traditional planning fails…

• Complexity • System Shocks • Resilience• Learning

"Vast confusion waits, as doth a raven on a sick-fall'n beast."

Shakespeare, King John

Communities are Complex SystemsCommunities are Complex Systems

It’s a New Day! Renewal and Regeneration Open Change Learning for Mastery Linear Causality Self-Organizing Systems

Upwardly Mobile Growth and Development Complicated Systems Cyclical Causality Incremental Change Experts and Models Early Intervention

The Establishment Complex Systems Conservative Structure Resistance to Change Experiential Learning Direct Action Changing the Rules

Revolution Rapid Change Chaotic Dynamics Experimental Learning Resilience Planning Redundancy Emergency Management

System ShocksSystem Shocks

ResilienceResilience

Formal definition:

The capacity of a system to absorb disturbance and re-organize while undergoing change so as to still retain essentially the same function, structure, identity and feedbacks

Source: Brian Walker, CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems & The Resilience Alliance

Community System Characteristics …Community System Characteristics …• Human Needs and feedback drive the systems

• Assets = Need satisfiers (programs, structures, policies, etc.)

• Emergent Properties = The whole is greater than the sum of its parts

• Patterns of behavior over time (trends) provide clues to leverage points

• Leverage = Big results for small efforts

Coping with ComplexityCoping with Complexity• The system is always more complex that

you think it is.

• The obvious problem-solving solution is probably wrong, and will make the situation worse.

• Develop a rich picture – an advantage of multi-stakeholder involvement.

• You need to learn your way forward rather the traditional reliance on planning.

Learning the way forwardLearning the way forward• Level One: Doing things right.

– Following directions Adhering– Crisis Management Adapting– Expert Learning Relating

• Level Two: Doing things better.– Experiential Learning Experiencing– Systematic Improvement Experimenting

• Level Three: Doing better things.– Co-Creating Connecting– Purpose-driven Dedicating

Learning at the Speed of ChangeLearning at the Speed of ChangeT

echn

olog

ical

and

Soc

ial

Cha

nge

Time

Normal, Incremental Planning & Learning

Adaptive, Transformational Learning

Strategies for Change

Current paradigm:

Planning the way to the future

New paradigm:

Learning the way to the future

Planning the Way to the FuturePlanning the Way to the Future

• Projecting the Past onto the Future

• Focus on Infrastructure and Land Use

• Predicting and Controlling Change

• Risk Management

Learning the Way to the FutureLearning the Way to the Future

• Vision driven• No Quick Fixes • Holding creative tension• From Problem Solving

to Building Assets• Imbued with respect

and humility

Planning a Sustainable CityPlanning a Sustainable City

Sustainable DevelopmentSustainable Development

““development which development which meets the needs of the meets the needs of the present without present without compromising the ability compromising the ability of future generations to of future generations to meet their own needs” meet their own needs”

Five Community Systems …Five Community Systems …• Social and Human Development

• Governance System: Empowerment and Responsibility

• Economic System: Labor and Income

• Infrastructure and Built Environment: Material Reproduction

• Environmental Systems: Ecological Services

Stakeholder ProcessStakeholder Process

Community OutreachCommunity Outreach

EventsEvents

PublicityPublicity

Vision Statement Vision Statement Montpelier is a small and vibrant community nestled in the

mountains of central Vermont. With foresight and determination, we are poised to do great things in the decades to come.

Our vision is to excel as a creative and sustainable community. More specifically, we seek to safeguard the natural environment and enhance our small-town setting. We aspire to strengthen community and regional ties and expand civic participation. We aim to encourage learning and cultivate good jobs.

Together, we will strive to meet present needs and leave a worthy legacy to future generations. We hope that other communities might take inspiration from our vision and values — and the ways we put them into action.

What is Wealth?What is Wealth?

• The possession of well-being• Wealth = your needs are met

Human Needs

health and well-beinghealth and well-being

empowerment and empowerment and responsibilityresponsibility

economic securityeconomic security

ecological integrityecological integrity

efficient services and efficient services and infrastructureinfrastructure

Fundamental Economic FlowsFundamental Economic Flows

• WaterWater

• FoodFood

• EnergyEnergy

• MoneyMoney

Montpelier ProjectsMontpelier Projects

• Food Systems CouncilFood Systems Council• District EnergyDistrict Energy• Time Bank/Care BankTime Bank/Care Bank

• Increase local food securityIncrease local food security

• Food Justice – eradicate hunger Food Justice – eradicate hunger

• Improve markets for local farmersImprove markets for local farmers

• Increase access to safe, healthy foodIncrease access to safe, healthy food

• Educate consumers about local foodEducate consumers about local food

• Identify and advocate for related policiesIdentify and advocate for related policies

Food Systems Council GoalsFood Systems Council Goals

Food CurrencyFood Currency

• Farm StandFarm Stand

• Electronic payment Electronic payment gatewaygateway

• Food storage currencyFood storage currency

• Food creditsFood credits

• Business opportunitiesBusiness opportunities

District EnergyDistrict Energy

District EnergyDistrict Energy

Possible Plant sites Possible Plant sites and buildings to and buildings to be servedbe served

Clean Energy Assessment DistrictClean Energy Assessment District

• $3 million fund for renewables and energy $3 million fund for renewables and energy efficiency measures outside of the area efficiency measures outside of the area served by the plantserved by the plant

• Half for efficiency – 100 properties with Half for efficiency – 100 properties with approximately 20% savingsapproximately 20% savings

• Half for renewables – 50 renewable facilities Half for renewables – 50 renewable facilities displacing 25% of energy demanddisplacing 25% of energy demand

Time Bank: Onion River ExchangeTime Bank: Onion River ExchangeHelp at HomeHelp at Home

WellnessWellness

Home RepairHome Repair

CompanionshipCompanionship

Education Community Education Community ActivitiesActivities

Arts, Crafts, and MusicArts, Crafts, and Music

TransportationTransportation

RecreationRecreation

Business ServicesBusiness ServicesEinstein discovers that time is

actually money…

REACH ProgramREACH Program

• Elder care bankElder care bank• Aging in Place/ Aging in Place/

CommunityCommunity• Social insurance Social insurance • Make a time Make a time

commitment every commitment every monthmonth

• Receive services Receive services from communityfrom community

The Learning OrganizationThe Learning OrganizationAt the heart of a learning organization is a shift of mind

--from seeing ourselves as separate from the world to connected to the world, from seeing problems as caused by someone or something 'out there' to seeing how our own actions create the problems we experience. A learning organization is a place where people are continually discovering how they create their reality. And how they can change it.

Peter Senge