The Role of the Project Manager: Uncertainty in the Project Environment

The Role of the Project Manager:

Uncertainty in the Project Environment

Authored by:Kedisa Johnson

September 8, 2010

Tuesday, August 30, 2011

AbstractThis paper seeks to address the role of the project manager and challenges associated with crises and uncertainty in the project environment.

Additionally, the crisis management skills that a project manager need to possess are explored within the context of the learning environment.

The paper also seeks to highlight how organizations and management can foster learning for project managers.

The specific statements from Lecture 1 are as follows: “Dealing with crises: since projects focus on producing a unique product or service, new obstacles continually arise. Crises frequently occur without warning, making it critical for the project manager to have good crisis management skills. The ability to cope with uncertainty and change is vital” (Warbuton, Lecture 1, 2010).


Uncertainty in the project environment can influence the outcome of a project

Uncertainty in the project environment can influence the outcome of a project.

The term uncertainty is defined by Stoelsnes and Bea (2005) as a “situation where the outcome is not known” and further echoes and references Van Home’s (1966) definition of the term stating that “uncertainty exists when the probability of a particular outcome is not known (Stoelsnes and Bea, 2005 p.19).

Stolesnes and Bea (2005) explicitly differentiates uncertainty from risk, arguing that risk “is the probability of an undesirable outcome, while uncertainty exists when the prior outcome of a random event is not known” (p.19).

From this perspective, the project manager can better manage and or assess risk by implementing certain inputs and regulating particular outputs.

Risk, in this regard, differs both from crisis and uncertainty in the project environment.


Uncertainty management is key in addressing crises in the project environment

Addressing crises in the project environment can be examined through the lens of what Stoelsnes and Bea (2005) refer to as uncertainty management: “a systematic ongoing process that involves identifying, addressing, describing, evaluating, action planning, monitoring and updating with regard to general conditions and their inherent uncertainty” (p. 19).

These general conditions that the authors speak of are a categorized list of eight conditions that can influence project accomplishment and outcome.

General conditions are “of predictable and unpredictable internal, external and technical conditions that can influence project accomplishment” (p. 20).

These include the following:

1. Human conditions (competence, motivation, etc.)2. Organizational conditions (communication, project organization,

etc.)3. Management conditions (project management,site management,

etc.) 4. Cultural conditions (conduct, values, etc.)5. Political conditions (rules, regulations, demands, etc.)6. Technical conditions (old, new, etc.)7. Economic conditions (currency, marked, etc.)8. Weather and natural conditions (soil conditions, wind, etc.)

Stoelsnes, R. , & Bea, R. (2005). Uncertainty management of general conditions in a project. Risk Management: An International Journal, 7(2), 19-35.


Uncertainty management and crisis management skills are learned

So how does a project manager develop crisis management or uncertainty management skills?

Since crisis management involves dealing with threats typically after they have occurred, a project manager, from my perspective, should be able to answer the question: where or what is the core of the problem?

A project manager need the techniques required to identify, assess, understand, and cope with a serious situation, especially from the moment it first occurs to the point that recovery procedures begin.

Although not from a technical background, my experience managing projects has revealed that a learning environment throughout the project cycle must be created in order for a project manager to develop the knowledge of how to identify, assess, understand and cope with uncertainty.

These skills aren’t necessarily inherent from a common sense approach, they must be learned.


Uncertainty management requires a continuos evaluation process

Stoelsnes and Bea (2005) suggests that project managers should engage in an evaluation process of general conditions structured into an uncertainty management process. This process is an ongoing evaluation in six steps:

1.Establish a team2.Address, define and estimate3.Evaluate results4.Action plan5.Monitor6.Update

This process or model is arguably one that is suitable across industries and disciplines, the nonprofit sector included.

This six step process typically occurs during the year-end strategic planning process at a nonprofit organization.

The strategic plan is a working document that gives insight into not only what projects the organization will engage in for the upcoming year, but is also the standard document from which all operations are managed and metrics measured both in the short and long-term.

Due to the nature of non-profits (most are service as opposed to product oriented), the strategic plan is the guiding document a project manager will use through all projects undertaken by the organization--as all projects more or less must be mission driven.

Stoelsnes and Bea (2005) in describing their uncertainty management process, highlights the foundation of strategy planning in a well organized and well managed nonprofit organization: “going through the process for the first time is most often more time and resource demanding than going through it later. The frequency and the timing of the process are dependent on the precision that is sought and on the willingness to invest in precision with regard to uncertainty that may influence project accomplishment” (p. 22).




















Uncertainty management should be implemented before and during a project period

When a new program or project, for example, is introduced and needs to be implemented as a part of the overall strategic plan, management must decide the level of precision with which that new program or project will be implemented.

Management, along with the project manager, must identify all the general conditions that can directly or indirectly influence the new program or project.

The six step uncertainty management process must be applied--as there is a tremendous amount of uncertainty as to whether or not the new program or project will be seamlessly aligned with existing ones.

Stoelsnes and Bea (2005) argue that independent of the precision that is sought and of the willingness to invest, it is recommended that this (six step evaluation) is an ongoing process that is done both before and during the whole project period.

It is also recommended that there is a “review after the project is finished, so that lessons can be learned” (p.22). The exploration of lessons learned need not be a singular process for the project manager, but the entire team.

This is especially true for nonprofit organizations who run the risk of repeating costly mistakes--manifested in either a loss of finances or talent.

Of the eight general conditions, Stoelsnes and Bea (2005) consider human (competence, motivation); organizational (communication, project organization); and management (project and site management) the most manageable, hence, not the easiest to improve, but rather require constant improvement.


Uncertainty management requires organizational leadership

Williams (2003) argues that “learning from projects is an i m p o r t a n t r e q u i r e m e n t f o r t h e p r o j e c t - o r i e n t e d organisation” (Williams, 2003, p. 450).

In the case of nonprofit organizations, it is essential for senior management to engage with both midlevel and field staff in not only the strategic planning process, but also the uncertainty management process (Stoelsnes and Bea, 2005).

Often times, this is where the breakdown in human, organizational, and management conditions occur.

If there is a disconnect between field staff or project managers who engage in the daily management of projects and programs of the organization, without the opportunity to engage with mid and senior level management in an organizational, lessons-learned conversation, the project manager’s ability to deal with change or enhance his or her crisis management skills is hindered.

Most non-profits or businesses for that matter, usually do not carve out the time to delve into such a process. Williams (2003) argues that “it appears a common experience that the next bid or the next project needs attention immediately and is too urgent to allow a significant amount of time for reflection. However, that is essentially a management decision: whether to do more projects, or to give sufficient resources for reflecting and learning and thus gain more from each project and so do future projects better (p.450).

In conclusion, although it is the sole responsibility of the project manager to see a project through from initiation to completion, it is arguably the responsibility of an organization to create an environment where necessary leadership skills like crisis and uncertainty management can be learned.

Williams, T. (2003). Learning from projects. The Journal of the Operational Research Society, 54(5), 443-451.


ReferencesStoelsnes, R. , & Bea, R. (2005). Uncertainty management of general conditions in a project. Risk Management: An International Journal, 7(2), 19-35.

Williams, T. (2003). Learning from projects. The Journal of the Operational Research Society, 54(5), 443-451.

Van Home, J. (1966) Capital-budgeting Decisions Involving Combinations of Risky Investments. Management Science. Vol. 13, No. 2, 84-92.

Photo and Image Credits:Slide 3-Image retrieved from www.lifehacker.com Slide 5-Image retrieved from http://www.floodsite.net Slides 6 and 7 image retrieved from http://what-when-how.com Slides 4 and 8 images retrieved from personal istockphoto library


About

Kedisa Johnson earned a BA Degree in Literature and Culture from UCLA, and has seven years of experience in nonprofit program management. She is a graduate of the Riordan Volunteer Leadership Development Program sponsored by the Los Angeles Junior Chamber of Commerce, and is currently pursuing a MS Degree in Project Management.


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The Role of the Project Manager: Uncertainty in the Project Environment