The science, economics, equity and politics of global warming

Bob WatsonBob Watson

Fleagle LectureFleagle Lecture

University of WashingtonUniversity of WashingtonSeattle

May 1, 2007May 1, 2007

aa

The science is robustThe science is robust

Don’t expect the problem Don’t expect the problem to go awayto go away

Climate ChangeClimate Change• Climate change is both a development and global Climate change is both a development and global

environmental issue, which undermines:environmental issue, which undermines:• environmental sustainabilityenvironmental sustainability• poverty alleviation and the livelihoods of the poorpoverty alleviation and the livelihoods of the poor• human healthhuman health• personal, national and regional securitypersonal, national and regional security

• Climate change is an inter- and intra-generational Climate change is an inter- and intra-generational equity issue:equity issue:

• developing countries and poor people in developing developing countries and poor people in developing countries are the most vulnerablecountries are the most vulnerable

• the actions of today will affect future generations the actions of today will affect future generations because of the long life-times of the greenhouse because of the long life-times of the greenhouse gases and the inertia within the climate systemgases and the inertia within the climate system

Climate Change Resilient DevelopmentClimate Change Resilient Development

Climate change resilient development requires Climate change resilient development requires implementation of cost-effective mitigation and implementation of cost-effective mitigation and adaptation strategiesadaptation strategies

It requires integrating considerations of current It requires integrating considerations of current climate variability and projected changes in climate in climate variability and projected changes in climate in sector and national economic planning – project and sector and national economic planning – project and policy designpolicy design

While there is a need to minimize the emissions of While there is a need to minimize the emissions of greenhouse gases, it must be recognized that access greenhouse gases, it must be recognized that access to affordable energy in developing countries is a pre-to affordable energy in developing countries is a pre-requisite condition for poverty alleviation and requisite condition for poverty alleviation and sustainable economic growth –therefore, the sustainable economic growth –therefore, the challenge is to develop and utilize cost-effective low-challenge is to develop and utilize cost-effective low-carbon energy technologies (production and use)carbon energy technologies (production and use)

Climate ChangeClimate Change• The composition of the atmosphere, and the The composition of the atmosphere, and the

Earth’s climate has changed, mostly due to Earth’s climate has changed, mostly due to human activities (highly certain), and is human activities (highly certain), and is projected to continue to change, globally and projected to continue to change, globally and regionally:regionally:

• Increased greenhouse gases and aerosolsIncreased greenhouse gases and aerosols• Warmer temperatures Warmer temperatures • Changing precipitation patterns – spatially and temporallyChanging precipitation patterns – spatially and temporally• Higher sea levels – higher storm surgesHigher sea levels – higher storm surges• Retreating mountain glaciersRetreating mountain glaciers• Melting of the Greenland ice capMelting of the Greenland ice cap• Reduced arctic sea iceReduced arctic sea ice• More frequent extreme weather eventsMore frequent extreme weather events

• heat waves, floods and droughtsheat waves, floods and droughts• More intense cyclonic events, e,g., hurricanes in the AtlanticMore intense cyclonic events, e,g., hurricanes in the Atlantic

Temperature RecordsTemperature Records(Deviation from 1951- 1980 mean)(Deviation from 1951- 1980 mean)

Source: NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies Surface Temperature Analysis at  data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/

Ice Melt in GreenlandIce Melt in Greenland

Source: http://cires.colorado.edu/science/groups/steffen/greenland/melt2005/

Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/spl/hi/picture_gallery/05/sci_nat_how_the_world_is_changing/html/1.stm

Andean GlaciersAndean Glaciers

Hurricane TrendsHurricane Trends

Source: Webster et al, SCIENCE 16 September 2005

Tem

per

atu

re c

han

ge

C 1.0

0.5

0

-0.5

Observed temperature change overNorth America, Asia and Europe

and model simulation with natural and man-made factors

1900 2000

observations Natural factors Natural + man

1900 2000

North America Asia Europe

The Global Climate of the 21st Century

Source: IPCC, Climate Change, 2001

……and temperatureand temperature

Some Areas are Projected to Become Some Areas are Projected to Become Wetter, Others DrierWetter, Others Drier

Annual Mean Precipitation Change: 2071 to 2100 Relative to 1990

Recent Concerns Recent Concerns Compared to the IPCC TAR, there is greater clarity and reduced Compared to the IPCC TAR, there is greater clarity and reduced

uncertainty about the impacts of climate changeuncertainty about the impacts of climate change

A number of increased concerns have arisen:A number of increased concerns have arisen:• Increased oceanic acidity likely to reduce the oceans capacity Increased oceanic acidity likely to reduce the oceans capacity

to absorb carbon dioxide and effect the entire marine food to absorb carbon dioxide and effect the entire marine food chainchain

• A regional increase of 2.7A regional increase of 2.7ooC above present (associated with a C above present (associated with a temperature rise of about 1.5temperature rise of about 1.5ooC above today or 2C above today or 2ooC above pre-C above pre-industrial level) could trigger a melting of the Greenland ice-capindustrial level) could trigger a melting of the Greenland ice-cap

• Possible destabilization of the Antarctic ice sheets becomes Possible destabilization of the Antarctic ice sheets becomes more likely above 3more likely above 3ooC – the Larson B ice shelve is showing signs C – the Larson B ice shelve is showing signs of instabilityof instability

• The North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation may slow down or The North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation may slow down or even shut downeven shut down

Climate change is already Climate change is already affecting natural and social affecting natural and social

systemssystems

Why Climate Change is a Serious Why Climate Change is a Serious Development IssueDevelopment Issue

In this decade over 3 billion people in developing countries are likely to be affected by climate related disasters

People in developing countries are affected at 20 times the rate of those in developed countries

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

Nu

mb

er

aff

ec

ted

(M

illio

ns

)

Dev'ed

CIT

Dev'ing

LDC

All countries are vulnerable to climate change but the poorest countries and the poorest people within them are most vulnerable. They are the most exposed and have the least means to adapt.

Source: World Bank analysis based on CREDA data.

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

year

%

-30

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

rainfall variability

GDP growth

Ag GDP growth

Ethiopia

Preliminary results from : A Country Water Resources Assistance Strategy for Ethiopia

From Claudia Sadoff

Climate variability is already a major Climate variability is already a major

impediment to developmentimpediment to development

Climate ChangeClimate ChangeHuman-induced climate change is projected Human-induced climate change is projected to:to: Decrease water availability and water quality in many arid- Decrease water availability and water quality in many arid-

and semi-arid regions – increased risk of floods and droughts and semi-arid regions – increased risk of floods and droughts in many regions (the Stern Report concluded that the in many regions (the Stern Report concluded that the

fraction of land in extreme drought at any fraction of land in extreme drought at any one time could one time could increase from 1% to 30%)increase from 1% to 30%)

Decrease the reliability of hydropower and biomass Decrease the reliability of hydropower and biomass production in some regionsproduction in some regions

Increase the incidence of vector- (e.g., malaria and dengue) Increase the incidence of vector- (e.g., malaria and dengue) and water-borne (e.g., cholera) diseases, as well as heat and water-borne (e.g., cholera) diseases, as well as heat

stress mortality, threats nutrition in developing countries, stress mortality, threats nutrition in developing countries, increase in extreme weather event deathsincrease in extreme weather event deaths

Decrease agricultural productivity for almost any Decrease agricultural productivity for almost any warming in warming in the tropics and sub-tropics and adverse impacts on fisheriesthe tropics and sub-tropics and adverse impacts on fisheries

Adversely effect ecological systems, especially coral reefs, Adversely effect ecological systems, especially coral reefs, and exacerbate the loss of biodiversityand exacerbate the loss of biodiversity

Changes in available waterChanges in available water

Source: Maarten de Wit and Jacek Stankiewicz, Science 31 March 2006, http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/figsonly/311/5769/1917

Crop yields are projected to decrease in the tropics Crop yields are projected to decrease in the tropics and sub-tropics, but increase at high latitudesand sub-tropics, but increase at high latitudes

Percentage Percentage change in average change in average crop yields for a crop yields for a mid-range climate mid-range climate change scenariochange scenario

Even as soon as Even as soon as 2020 crop yields 2020 crop yields in SSA and parts in SSA and parts of Asia are of Asia are projected to projected to decrease by up to decrease by up to 20%20%

Drivers of biodiversity loss growingDrivers of biodiversity loss growing

Consequences of Ecosystem Consequences of Ecosystem Change for Human Well-beingChange for Human Well-being

Climate Change and ConflictClimate Change and Conflict

• Tens of millions of people displacedTens of millions of people displaced Low lying deltaic areasLow lying deltaic areas Small Island StatesSmall Island States

• Food shortages where there is hunger and famine Food shortages where there is hunger and famine todaytoday

• Water shortages in areas already with water shortagesWater shortages in areas already with water shortages• Natural resources depleted (e.g., coral reefs, forests), Natural resources depleted (e.g., coral reefs, forests),

loss of ecological goods and servicesloss of ecological goods and services• Increased incidence of diseaseIncreased incidence of disease• Increased incidence of severe weather events Increased incidence of severe weather events

Climate Change, coupled with other local Climate Change, coupled with other local and global environmental issues can lead to and global environmental issues can lead to

local and regional conflictlocal and regional conflict

Mitigating Climate ChangeMitigating Climate Change

The Economic and Financing The Economic and Financing ChallengeChallenge

What is Dangerous Anthropogenic What is Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference with the Climate Interference with the Climate

System?System?

Deciding what constitutes “dangerous anthropogenic Deciding what constitutes “dangerous anthropogenic interference to the climate system” is a value judgment interference to the climate system” is a value judgment determined through socio-political processes informed by determined through socio-political processes informed by scientific, technical and socio-economic informationscientific, technical and socio-economic information

The basis for determining what constitutes “dangerous The basis for determining what constitutes “dangerous anthropogenic interference” varies by region and sector and anthropogenic interference” varies by region and sector and depends upon:depends upon:

• the impacts of climate change, which depends on the the impacts of climate change, which depends on the rate and magnitude of climate change, and rate and magnitude of climate change, and

• adaptive and mitigative capacityadaptive and mitigative capacity

Emissions Paths to StabilizationEmissions Paths to StabilizationSource: Stern Review

Projected Impacts of Climate Projected Impacts of Climate ChangeChange

Source: Stern Review

Largest EmittersLargest Emitters: : Developed & Developed & DevelopingDeveloping

20552005

14

7

Billion of Tons of Carbon Emitted per Year

1955

0

Stabilization TriangleCurre

ntly pro

jected path

Flat path

Historical emissions

2.0

2105

Easier CO2 target~850 ppm

Tougher CO2 target

~500 ppm

The Stabilization Triangle

O

Interim Goals

Today and for the interim goals, global per-capita emissions are ≈ 1 tC/yr.

O

Developed Country Per capita Emissions far Exceed Developing Country Per Capita Emissions

OECD and non-OECD sharesOECD and non-OECD shares50-year view50-year view

SourceI Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American, September 2006, p.56

+60%

-60%

+140%

+60%

GHG Flow Diagram: Global GHG Flow Diagram: Global EmissionsEmissions

Source: WRI, Baumert et al, 2005

Potential technological optionsPotential technological options

• Efficient production and use of energy: coal plants (e.g., re-powering old inefficient plants and developing IGCC); vehicles (e.g., fuel cell cars) and reduced use of vehicles (e.g., mass transit and urban planning), buildings, and industries

• Fuel shift: coal to gas

• Renewable Energy and Fuels: Wind power; solar PV and solar thermal; small and large-scale hydropower; bio-energy

• CO2 Capture and Storage: Capture CO2 in the production of electricity followed by geological storage (e.g., IGCC – CCS)

• Nuclear fission: Nuclear power

• Forests and Agricultural Soils: Reduced deforestation; reforestation; afforestation; and conservation tillage

• Other GHGs: Methane, nitrous oxide, halocarbons and tropospheric ozone precursors

US$/ t-CO2

-20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Biomass Steam

Geothermal

Solar Thermal

Nuclear

Large Hydro

Wind

Small Hydro

CCGT

CCS

Supercritical Coal

IGCC

Solar PV280 to 465

Costs of Reducing Carbon Dioxide Emissions relative to Costs of Reducing Carbon Dioxide Emissions relative to sub-critical coal (life-cycle)sub-critical coal (life-cycle)

A key challenge is to reduce the cost of IGCC and CCS, which A key challenge is to reduce the cost of IGCC and CCS, which are still pre-commercialare still pre-commercial

Baseline and low-carbon projected energy Baseline and low-carbon projected energy scenarios for non-OECD countriesscenarios for non-OECD countries

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

wind

hydro

nuclear

gas-cs

gas

oil

coal-cs

coal

TWh

-16000

-12000

-8000

-4000

0

4000

8000

12000

16000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

wind

hydro

nuclear

gas-cs

gas

oil

coal-cs

coal

TWh

BaselineBaseline Low carbon scenarioLow carbon scenario

COCO22 would stabilize at about 450 ppm in the low carbon scenario, would stabilize at about 450 ppm in the low carbon scenario, requiring an investment of ~$30 billion/year in electricity generationrequiring an investment of ~$30 billion/year in electricity generation

Only three sources of funding for mitigation are available:Only three sources of funding for mitigation are available:(i) voluntary actions, (i) voluntary actions, (ii) international grants, e.g., GEF(ii) international grants, e.g., GEF(iii) carbon trading.(iii) carbon trading.

Resource levels and funding strategies limit GEF’s ability to scale Resource levels and funding strategies limit GEF’s ability to scale up market transformation and bring-down capital costs of up market transformation and bring-down capital costs of technologies for shift to a low carbon economy - to play a technologies for shift to a low carbon economy - to play a significant role in transitioning the world to a low-carbon economy significant role in transitioning the world to a low-carbon economy would require an increase in funds by a factor of ten or morewould require an increase in funds by a factor of ten or more

Carbon trade is likely to confer the biggest flow of funds to Carbon trade is likely to confer the biggest flow of funds to developing countries - between US$20 and $120 billion per year, developing countries - between US$20 and $120 billion per year, but requires a long-term global regulatory framework (i.e., a 2050 but requires a long-term global regulatory framework (i.e., a 2050 target) with differentiated responsibilities – with intermediate target) with differentiated responsibilities – with intermediate targets - new business models are neededtargets - new business models are needed

New financial instruments are required, especially to ensure New financial instruments are required, especially to ensure market continuity post 2012 - EU has sent a vital signal by market continuity post 2012 - EU has sent a vital signal by extending the time-frame of their carbon trading system extending the time-frame of their carbon trading system

Funding for mitigation activitiesFunding for mitigation activities

International policyInternational policy A long-term (2030 – 2050) global regulatory framework, A long-term (2030 – 2050) global regulatory framework,

involving all major emitters, with an equitable allocation of involving all major emitters, with an equitable allocation of responsibilities – with intermediate targetsresponsibilities – with intermediate targets

Kyoto plus 5 years will not provide the right signals to the Kyoto plus 5 years will not provide the right signals to the private sector or national governmentsprivate sector or national governments

Expand range of eligible CDM activities, including avoided Expand range of eligible CDM activities, including avoided deforestation, green investment schemes, energy efficiency deforestation, green investment schemes, energy efficiency standards, and exploring sectoral and programmatic approachstandards, and exploring sectoral and programmatic approach

Key challenges include engaging USA, China and IndiaKey challenges include engaging USA, China and India Opposition by some OECD countries to provide financial Opposition by some OECD countries to provide financial

assistance to rapidly developing countries, e.g.,Chinaassistance to rapidly developing countries, e.g.,China

Adoption of low-carbon technologies with an emphasis Adoption of low-carbon technologies with an emphasis on energy efficiency, the commercialization of CCS and on energy efficiency, the commercialization of CCS and second generation bio-fuelssecond generation bio-fuels• increase investment in public and private sector energy R&Dincrease investment in public and private sector energy R&D

Summary of the Major Mitigation ChallengesSummary of the Major Mitigation Challenges

Adapting to Climate ChangeAdapting to Climate Change

Development Perspective on Development Perspective on AdaptationAdaptation

The risks associated with a changing and more variable climate are The risks associated with a changing and more variable climate are increasing (e.g., storms, floods, droughts), resulting in both economic increasing (e.g., storms, floods, droughts), resulting in both economic losses and loss of human lifelosses and loss of human life

Climate change is an additional risk in developing countries which are Climate change is an additional risk in developing countries which are already stressed, adversely impacting on water resources, agriculture, already stressed, adversely impacting on water resources, agriculture, human health, coastal zones and ecological systemshuman health, coastal zones and ecological systems

Poverty reduction agenda:Poverty reduction agenda: Failure to adapt adequately to climate Failure to adapt adequately to climate variability and change is a major impediment to poverty reduction – variability and change is a major impediment to poverty reduction – chronic losses are as important as catastrophic losseschronic losses are as important as catastrophic losses

Adaptation to climate change must be recognized as part of the Adaptation to climate change must be recognized as part of the development process and not separate from it– adaptation is a process development process and not separate from it– adaptation is a process

A climate risk management approach: take account of the threats and A climate risk management approach: take account of the threats and opportunities arising from both current and future climate variability in opportunities arising from both current and future climate variability in project designproject design

The process must be country driven and focus on national needs and local The process must be country driven and focus on national needs and local

prioritiespriorities

Cost of AdaptationCost of Adaptation Estimates of the costs of inaction cover a huge range:Estimates of the costs of inaction cover a huge range:

$10Bs to $100Bs per year in developing countries by mid century$10Bs to $100Bs per year in developing countries by mid century GDP losses range up to about 10% for developing countries for a GDP losses range up to about 10% for developing countries for a

doubling of atmospheric COdoubling of atmospheric CO22

A preliminary assessment shows that tens of billions dollars per A preliminary assessment shows that tens of billions dollars per year of ODA & concessional finance investments are exposed to year of ODA & concessional finance investments are exposed to climate risksclimate risks

Comprehensive project planning and additional investments to Comprehensive project planning and additional investments to climate-proof development projects will require at least $1 billion climate-proof development projects will require at least $1 billion per yearper year

Primary public financial instruments available, which are Primary public financial instruments available, which are technically adequate –but funds flowing through them need to be technically adequate –but funds flowing through them need to be substantially increasedsubstantially increased ODA – currently only a few percent directly for adaptation ODA – currently only a few percent directly for adaptation GEF special funds for adaptation – rising to c. $100M paGEF special funds for adaptation – rising to c. $100M pa Adaptation Fund funded by a 2% tax on the CDM – < $100M paAdaptation Fund funded by a 2% tax on the CDM – < $100M pa

The political issue is who pays – industrialized or developing The political issue is who pays – industrialized or developing countriescountries

The Political SituationThe Political Situation

The Kyoto ProtocolThe Kyoto Protocol • All industrialized governments, except the US and Australia

have ratified the Kyoto Protocol, which contains:

• A commitment to reduce GHG emissions, on average, by about 5% between 2008-2012 relative to 1990

• The flexibility mechanisms – carbon trading

• Land-use, land-use change and forestry activities (limited)

• Funding mechanisms to assist developing countries

• The US stated that the Kyoto Protocol was flawed policy because it was neither fair nor effective and not in the best interests of the US • scientific uncertainties – Article 3 (precautionary principle)• high compliance costs – inconsistent with IPCC• ineffective without the participation of the large developing

countries

Differentiated ObligationsDifferentiated Obligations It has argued by the US that the Kyoto Protocol is neither fair nor It has argued by the US that the Kyoto Protocol is neither fair nor

effective because developing countries are not obligated to effective because developing countries are not obligated to reduce their emissions, i.e., its not in the self-interest of the US reduce their emissions, i.e., its not in the self-interest of the US energy companiesenergy companies • FairnessFairness - This is an equity issue - the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol - This is an equity issue - the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol

will have to decide what is fair and equitable, recognizing that:will have to decide what is fair and equitable, recognizing that: about 80% of the total anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse about 80% of the total anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse

gases have been emitted from industrialized countries (US is gases have been emitted from industrialized countries (US is currently about 25% of the global emissions – 36% of Annex I currently about 25% of the global emissions – 36% of Annex I emissions);emissions);

per capita emissions in industrialized countries far exceed those per capita emissions in industrialized countries far exceed those from developing countries; from developing countries;

developing countries do not have the financial, technological and developing countries do not have the financial, technological and institutional capability of industrialized countries to address the institutional capability of industrialized countries to address the issue; andissue; and

increased use of energy is essential for poverty alleviation increased use of energy is essential for poverty alleviation • EffectivenessEffectiveness - Long-term stabilization of the atmospheric - Long-term stabilization of the atmospheric

concentration of greenhouse gases cannot be achieved without global concentration of greenhouse gases cannot be achieved without global reductions, hence the issue is whom should do what in the short-term reductions, hence the issue is whom should do what in the short-term recognizing the long-term challengerecognizing the long-term challenge

Beyond KyotoBeyond Kyoto• Without the US taking real action to limit their GHG emissions it is Without the US taking real action to limit their GHG emissions it is

doubtful that there will be a second commitment period – some doubtful that there will be a second commitment period – some OECD countries will withdraw and large developing countries, i.e., OECD countries will withdraw and large developing countries, i.e., China and India will not be willing consider any commitmentsChina and India will not be willing consider any commitments

• Without a commitment of governments to limit GHG emissions Without a commitment of governments to limit GHG emissions beyond 2012 (the end of the first commitment period) the carbon beyond 2012 (the end of the first commitment period) the carbon market will remain soft and the private sector is unlikely to enter market will remain soft and the private sector is unlikely to enter in a meaningful mannerin a meaningful manner

• The real question for governments is whether to:The real question for governments is whether to:

• set an emissions target for a second commitment period set an emissions target for a second commitment period (2013-2017) (2013-2017) oror whether to set a long-term stabilization whether to set a long-term stabilization target for climate change (e.g., 2target for climate change (e.g., 2ooC above the pre-C above the pre-industrial level) or some other long-term framework – industrial level) or some other long-term framework – a long-term target is needed to send the appropriate a long-term target is needed to send the appropriate signal to the private sector and the carbon marketsignal to the private sector and the carbon market

• this would require a global emissions target – the challenge this would require a global emissions target – the challenge would be to agree on intermediate emissions targets and an would be to agree on intermediate emissions targets and an equitable allocation of emissions rightsequitable allocation of emissions rights

US SituationUS Situation

No meaningful action by US AdministrationNo meaningful action by US Administration

Bipartisan draft legislation in Congress – House and SenateBipartisan draft legislation in Congress – House and Senate

State action – California and NE StatesState action – California and NE States

Evangelicals promoting actionEvangelicals promoting action

Most Presidential candidates pro-actionMost Presidential candidates pro-action

Major multi-national companies adopting voluntary targetsMajor multi-national companies adopting voluntary targets

Movement in the right direction, but a long way to goMovement in the right direction, but a long way to go

Overall ConclusionsOverall Conclusions Increased access to energy is critical for poverty alleviation and economic Increased access to energy is critical for poverty alleviation and economic

growth – hence a major challenge to engage China and India growth – hence a major challenge to engage China and India

Climate change undermines development, environmental sustainability Climate change undermines development, environmental sustainability and the Millennium Development Goalsand the Millennium Development Goals

There are cost-effective and equitable solutions, but political will and There are cost-effective and equitable solutions, but political will and moral leadership is neededmoral leadership is needed

The future is in our hands - we can limit changes in the Earth’s climate, The future is in our hands - we can limit changes in the Earth’s climate, but the changes in policies, practices and technologies required are but the changes in policies, practices and technologies required are substantial and not currently underwaysubstantial and not currently underway

Public amd private sector decision-makers need to take a longer-term Public amd private sector decision-makers need to take a longer-term perspectiveperspective

Advances in science and technology are required, with the emphasis on Advances in science and technology are required, with the emphasis on multi-disciplinary research – S&T capacity must be strengthened in multi-disciplinary research – S&T capacity must be strengthened in developing countriesdeveloping countries

The scientific community needs to learn to communicate better with civil The scientific community needs to learn to communicate better with civil society, decision-makers and the mediasociety, decision-makers and the media

Directions for the WorldDirections for the World