The Society of OR

EURO ReykjavikJuly 2006

Michael Trick Tepper School,Carnegie Mellon

About this talk Personal Perspective from

Time with INFORMS Online President of INFORMS Vice President of IFORS

Primarily a US perspective Not a research talk!

Main Sources

Plus additional from social capital research

Definition Social Capital : measures of the

value of social networks. Those tangible substances that count

for most in the daily lives of people: namely good will, fellowship, sympathy, and social intercourse [Hanifan, 1916]

Social Capital Value we get from interactions, even if

no obvious learning (human capital) gets done Economic Capital in bank account Human Capital in head Social Capital in structure of relationships

(Portes) Generally the result of ongoing,

repeated interactions

Illustration

Information

Social Capital

Information Exchange

Social Capital Not a “fuzzy”, “feel-good” concept, but

a measurable aspect of life with clear economic and social implications. Careful studies show executives with larger

networks advance faster Those who volunteer time are healthier Joining a society is “equivalent” to quitting

smoking As illustrated, cause and effect can be

problematic

Types of Social Capital Bonding: interactions that bind a

group together Bridging: interactions that work to

combine groups Both important but have different

implications (for getting a good job, wide social networks are often better than close-knit families)

Why is Social Capital Important/Useful?

“Lubricant” that makes interactions go (like money in economic transactions)

Leads to Trust Reciprocity Cooperation Institutional Effectiveness

Examples of activities Working for Political Party Serving as officer in a club Church Attendance Membership in professional

organization Entertainment at home Bowled in a League

Decline of Social Capital 1970-1995

Worked for political party

7% 2.8%

Served as officer in club

10% 6%

Attended Church 42% 36%

Member of Institute of Architects

41% 28%

Entertained at home 14 9

Bowled in a league 69/ 1000

31/ 1000

Further Sign? INFORMS Membership

1994 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Total 13,100

11,752

11,058 10,499

10,532

10,208

10,536

10,437 10,314

Student 2700 2253 1985 1755 1731 1782 1998 2105 2116

Retired 325 492 504 516 525 522 524 506 504

Decline of Social Capital By almost any measure, the

activities that lead to social capital are declining after having reached a peak in 1950-1970 period

Decrease is strongest in youngest cohorts (relative to involvement of others at that age)

Exceptions Even possible exceptions are not

encouraging Some membership organizations

have grown (Greenpeace and the like from 8/1000 to 37/1000). Membership is essentially fundraising

“Small group movement”: growth limited to “inner-directed” AA and other self-help

What about the internet? No evidence in data yet Lots more talking, little listening Few examples of true social capital

building (issues with lack of social cues)

Huge issue remains: how can we use these technological advances to create real communities (some more thoughts later)

Effects of this decline Society is measurably more

doubtful of others (people don’t trust each other as much)

People break “little laws more” (at a set of stop signs in NY, stopping went from 38% in 1978 to 1%)

Charitable giving has decreased Many more signs of breakdown

Why? Many suspects, no one reason Careful study does remove some

possibilities: hard to blame internet when the decline from 1970 is steady

Pressures of time, money, sprawl at work. Key issues are television usage and generational shifts

Pressures of Time and Money

Those with heavy time demands are more likely to be active civically and professionally Busy people spend less time reading

books, sleeping, and (particularly) watching TV

Increasing financial anxiety during period, however decreases engagement

Pressures of Time and Money

Full time employment by women (attributable virtually entirely to financial pressures) decreases civic involvement (Porter: “Although the mothers of the current generation of American adults were usually not part of the paid labor force, they engaged in many socially productive functions. As their daughters have assumed a greater share of work outside the home, one might have expected their sons to assume a greater share of other social responsibilities but … that has not happened”)

Sprawl and mobility Rural and small towns have been

“hotbed” of activity: now decreasing

More time spent in commute gives less time for other activities. Speed is actually up, which causes formerly self-contained towns to become bedroom communities

Television and technology

There are now 2.4 TV sets per household, and the average household watches TV 7.5 hours/day

Isolated and isolating activity that correlates most strongly with other measures of social disengagement

Trick’s TV situation: 5 TVs

TV Usage: “TV is my primary form of entertainment”

Strongly Agree

Strongly Disagree

Volunteered 4.1 9.1

Letters written 12 18

Club meetings 5 9

Worked on community project

1.5 3

Gave finger to another driver

3 1.4

Causation? Some interesting studies of 3

northern Canadian communities in the 1970s, one with no TV, one with one channel, and one with five.

Participation in community activities was sharply higher in “no TV” town

Generational Shifts Two ways these changes could

come about: uniform across all ages or replacement of “civic generation” with a less civic generation

Data is clearly in favor of the latter. Matches with TV results

Relevance to OR Professionals?

Clearly an important issue for society

Bowling Alone received widespread media coverage

Is there special relevance to OR/MS professionals?

YES! (I think)

Importance of Social Capital

Communication with colleagues for Jobs New methods Support Ongoing

information

Communication externally for Funding Initiatives Professional

Growth

Implications: Unique for OR

By our nature, we are Alone in our organization, or part of a

small group Dependent on outside interactions to

generate projects, ideas, creative research directions

It is arguable that OR professionals are more dependent on social capital than many other professions

Recognition of importance:OR Practitioners

Individual or small group consulting requires network (see Fred Murphy’s comments in Interfaces, 2005)

Theurer: never take a long-term job since it destroys the network

But this cannot be done alone!

Recognition of Importance:Conferences

INFORMS Conference participation has grown from a total of roughly 3000/year in two conferences to 3500 in just one.

This conference is 2.5 times the projected size

Recognition of Importance:Research

Harder to evaluate Lots of awards/recognition for

applications such as HIV/AIDS Policy input Nontraditional application areas

Effect of Bowling Alone conclusions

Society membership is a poor measure of importance of an area. Don’t point to INFORMS membership numbers for support for the thesis that OR is weakening.

Instead, the reverse may be true: OR may be weakened by lack of emphasis on social capital issues (just as many aspects of social welfare are weak in states with little social capital).

Effect of Bowling Alone conclusions (cont.)

Societies may likely require more professional support to offset decreased volunteer effort.

Decreased opportunities for “bridging” social capital

“Mispricing” of social capital opportunities due to lack of experience.

Offsetting these effects

First step in solving a problem is to recognize one exists.

Recognize social capital as a key component of our professional lives and increase supply

Offsetting Effects Some evidence that “Golden Era”

of social capital (30s-50s) was a response to needs

Perhaps we will see a similar counter-veiling force in response to current decrease

We can help things along!

Offsetting the Effects Increase social capital activities

Structured lunch tables at conferences Additional opportunities for members of our

profession, particularly young ones Create cohorts of “bonded” individuals

within the larger community (viz. the “small group movement”). Dunbar’s number: 150

Increase rewards and professional recognition for “social capital” activities

Hide social capital activities in other actions

Good Example!

What kind of interactions willtake place?

It is not about thehiking!

Create Social Capital (bonding!)

Understand social capital issues in the communities we create (user groups, cross-functional teams, professional societies, etc.) Do not overemphasize knowledge

over interaction Recognize individual reluctance Create opportunities

Tell people what we do(bridging!)

Doesn’t have to be own work Have 3 or 4 good stories, and tell

them as often as you can Great opportunity at this colloquium

to collect stories Don’t be shy, modest, analytical

(all those things OR people normally are)

Offsetting the Effects Be leaders in exploiting new

technology to create mixed online/live communities Offset time/ sprawl effects Move beyond the “individual” aspects

of the web to discover social capital aspects

Illustration

Web pages

True interaction

New Technologies: New Opportunities?

“New” technology for web Open source development Wiki Blogs Crowdsourcing Social Network Sites

Open Source Development

Creation of software or systems with broad access to the end products sources

Anyone can study, change and improve software

Group of those doing these form a community

Open Source Development

Social Capital involves Goodwill Mutual support Shared language Common beliefs Sense of mutual obligation

Open Source creates communities One very healthy one in OR: COIN-

OR

www.coin-or.org

Key aspects relative to social capital: COIN-OR

Ongoing interactions across a variety of software packages

Differing goals/objectives/interests/skills Support infrastructure (including

support of an INFORMS subdivision) like email lists, wiki, foundation support, etc.

Periodic meetings face-to-face Great example of a community with

associated social capital effects

Wiki Website that allows users to add,

remove, edit most content easily Open source approach to content

creation

www.wikipedia.org

Social Capital Wikis generally create a community

of creators/users (with little distinction)

Able to cross boundaries easily Spawn conferences, etc

Great opportunity in OR: Create an OR wikipedia

Blogs A weblog or blog is a website with

regular entries are made and presented in reverse chronological order

Generally commentaries by one or a few people on a particular subject

http://mat.tepper.cmu.edu/blog

Social Capital and blogs Limited interaction: ability for

readers to add comments

66 posts generated 52 comments (about half from me)

Social Capital Aspects of Blogs

Accessible way to generate “bridging” capital

Linkages outside the field Accessible to those outside the field

About 1000 different readers per month Part of social capital, but not key Most social capital is among bloggers!

Crowdsourcing Sourcing relying on unpaid or low-

paid amateurs who use their spare time to create content, solve problems, do R&D Contrast with outsourcing Buzzword coined by Wired magazine

Related to wiki, open source, etc. but less cooperative

www.innocentive.com

OR? No current OR version

Good opportunities, though! Problem/solution focus

Variety of skills needed Relatively low cost of entry

Social Capital Aspects Openness prevents “insider bias”:

promotes bridging social capital Currently more “human capital”

based than “social capital” based Offers entrée into other groups

Social Network Sites Sites such as friendster.com and

(particularly) myspace.com aim to allow people to create their own social networks

Incredibly popular (Myspace has more than 88 million users, 5th busiest site in world)

Interactive network of blogs, profiles, photos, and internal email

www.myspace.com

Social Capital aspects Currently stresses the social (some

are a bit more business oriented) Cuts down on barriers Real interactions? Or just an

online version of “WAZZUP!! WAZZUUUPPP!!”

A little too early?

Conclusions Social Capital is important Traditional Social Capital activities are

decreasing, to the detriment of societies

This is particularly important for OR New technology may be pushed to

create new social capital structures

Enough lecturing: let’s aim for some social capital! Questions?