The South Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative’s Third Thursday Web Forum

Vegetation Dynamics Projections to Inform Conservation in the Southeast

Thursday, October 18, 2012

Third Thursday Web Forum Agenda

Introductions Updates Monthly Topic: Vegetation Dynamics

Projections to Inform Conservation in the Southeast

Questions & Discussion of Monthly TopicQuestions & Discussion of SALCCClose

Introductions

Amy Keister, GIS CoordinatorLaurie Rounds, Gulf Coast Landscape

Conservation LiaisonGinger Deason, Information Transfer

Specialist/Forest Service LiaisonJen Costanza, Postdoctoral Associate,

Biodiversity and Spatial Information Center (BASIC), NCSU

Updates

Second Biological Objectives Workshop underway

Draft indicators process web comments due today

Interim video report – Sea Level Rise and Coastal Species – on web

Socioeconomics Workshop development committee being formed

www.southatlanticlcc.org

a tour of new spatial data products

SALCC

Third Thursday Web Forum

SALCC

Third Thursday Web Forum

a tour of new spatial data products

SALCC Introduction

In this three part webinar series we will explore newly available spatial

products that predict future conditions

• 6/21/12: Urban Growth• 8/16/12: Sea level rise • 10/18/12: Land cover

SALCC Introduction

The SALCC is a forum in which the private, state and federal conservation community…

develops a shared vision of landscape sustainability

cooperates in its implementation; and

collaborates in its refinement

Mission:Create a shared blueprint for

landscape conservation actions that sustain natural and cultural

resources

SALCC Introduction

What is the Blueprint?An interactive, living plan that

describes the places and actions needed to meet the SALCC’s conservation priorities in the

face of future change

Conservation Priority = Measurable indicator of success

SALCC Introduction

*calculated from the NOAA medium resolution digital vector shoreline

About the SALCC area

• Portions of 6 States

• 89 million acres

• 92% private land

• 18,700 miles of coastline*

SALCC Introduction

Why is the SALCC interested in these spatial data?

To achieve our mission, we need to be able to understand and model the forces that drive

change on the landscape

The spatial data products we are highlighting cover the entire

SALCC area and as far as your staff knows, these are currently the best data available for our

region

Do you know of other comparable data that cover our

entire region?

Vegetation dynamics projections to inform conservation in the

SoutheastJennifer CostanzaOctober 18, 2012

Vegetation dynamics: extent

DSL Project Overview

Coordinated research project between • USGS Coop Units of NC and AL • Atlantic Coast Joint Venture • NCSU Biodiversity and Spatial Information Center

Aim: Predict landscape-level change effects on avian habitats in SE due to urban growth, succession, disturbance, climate change, and conservation programs

Included Vegetation dynamics, Sea level rise (SLAMM) and Urban growth (SLEUTH) modeling

SERAP Overview

CLIM

CLIM

CLIMHabitat

Change in Coastal Areas

UrbanizationVegetation Dynamics

Avian OccupancySpecies-Habitats

Relations

Hydrologic Response

Fish and Mussel Occupancy

MANAGEMENT ALTERNATIVESLand Acquisition

Habitat RestorationPurchase Irrigated

CroplandRiparian Improvement

Improve Irrigation efficiency

Propagation/Translocation

Adaptation Strategies

CLIMATE

CHANGE

COASTAL

TERRESTRIAL

AQUATIC

Modeling approach

• Location of habitat types• Successional stage• Vegetation structure

ForcingsCurrent Spatial Conditions

Spatially-explicit landscape projectionsVegetation succession and disturbance,

sea level rise, urban growth: through 2100

• Climate effect on wildfire• Urban growth (SLEUTH)• Sea level rise (SLAMM)

• State-and-transition models for 150+ ecological systems and land cover types – VDDT / TELSA

• Based on models developed by LANDFIRE• Include succession, disturbances and management

P1

P2 P3

Transitions

young pine

forest

middle-aged forest

old forest

Annual transition probabilities

States

Spatially-explicit based on landscape mapAdd states, change transitions in response to changes

P4 P5 P6

Vegetation dynamics models

Clearcut pine

forestP7

Annual probabilities from recent wildfire records:Surface fire 0.02Replacement fire 0.0006

Longleaf pine ecosystem model

A1FI climate scenario wildfire probability multiplier

95% confidence interval

Climate change effect on wildfire

Incorporating SLEUTH and SLAMM

SLAMM (sea level rise)

SLEUTH (urban growth)