Upload
quilla
View
25
Download
0
Tags:
Embed Size (px)
DESCRIPTION
The Suburban Chicago Residential Market -- An Overview --. Presented by G. Tracy Cross President, Tracy Cross & Associates, Inc. September 20, 2012. New Home Sales. U.S. (1) Chicago. 2004 1,203,00031,843 Year-Over-Year+10.6%+13.1% 2005 1,283,00033,287 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
Citation preview
The Suburban Chicago Residential Market-- An Overview --
Presented by G. Tracy CrossPresident, Tracy Cross & Associates, Inc.
September 20, 2012
New Home Sales
2004 1,203,00031,843Year-Over-Year +10.6%+13.1%
2005 1,283,00033,287Year-Over-Year +6.7%+4.5%
2006 1,052,00025,105Year-Over-Year -18.0%-24.6%
2007 776,00015,377Year-Over-Year -26.2%-38.7%
2008 485,0006,361Year-Over-Year -37.5%-58.6%
2009 374,0003,552Year-Over-Year -22.9%-44.2%
2010 322,0003,101Year-Over-Year -14.1%-12.7%Variance From 2005 -74.9%-90.7%
2011 305,0002,932Year-Over-Year -5.3%-5.4%Variance From 2005 -76.2%-91.2%
2012 358,000(2)
3,196Year-Over-Year +17.3%+9.0%Variance From 2005 -72.1%-90.4%
U.S.(1) Chicago
(1) Single family home sales.(2) Seasonally adjusted, annualized rate YTD June.Source: Tracy Cross & Associates, Inc.
Trends in Production New Home Salesby Product Type
1Q94
2Q94
3Q94
4Q94
1Q95
2Q95
3Q95
4Q95
1Q96
2Q96
3Q96
4Q96
1Q97
2Q97
3Q97
4Q97
1Q98
2Q98
3Q98
4Q98
1Q99
2Q99
3Q99
4Q99
1Q00
2Q00
3Q00
4Q00
1Q01
2Q01
3Q01
4Q01
1Q02
2Q02
3Q02
4Q02
1Q03
2Q03
3Q03
4Q03
1Q04
2Q04
3Q04
4Q04
1Q05
2Q05
3Q05
4Q05
1Q06
2Q06
3Q06
4Q06
1Q07
2Q07
3Q07
4Q07
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
02,0004,0006,0008,000
10,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,00022,00024,00026,00028,00030,00032,00034,00036,000
Total Single Family Townhome/Condominium
Total Sales (SAAR)
Note: DeKalb County, IL and Kenosha County, WI included starting 2nd Quarter 2003.Source: Tracy Cross & Associates, Inc.
New Home Sales Chicago Region-- Suburban Area --
Year Total
1993 15,815 8,925 6,8901994 15,161 8,424 6,7371995 16,919 9,329 7,5901996 17,027 9,822 7,2051997 17,135 9,807 7,3281998 18,840 11,069 7,7711999 19,742 11,556 8,1862000 20,132 11,727 8,4052001 22,717 12,820 9,8972002 23,185 13,995 9,1902003 24,861 14,281 10,5802004 25,699 14,208 11,4912005 25,761 14,374 11,3872006 19,354 10,392 8,9622007 11,302 5,873 5,4292008 4,880 2,655 2,2252009 2,913 1,464 1,4492010 2,508 1,219 1,2892011 2,326 1,203 1,123
2012(1) 2,667 1,622 1,045
(1) Seasonally adjusted, annualized rate YTD June.Source: Tracy Cross & Associates, Inc.
CondominiumFamilySingle Townhome/
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
26,000
28,000
Total Single Family Townhome/Condominium
Total Sales
(1) Seasonally adjusted, annualized rate YTD June.Source: Tracy Cross & Associates, Inc.
New Home Sales Chicago Region-- Suburban Area --
(1)
Source: Tracy Cross & Associates, Inc.
Northern CorridorNorthwestern CorridorWestern CorridorSouthwestern CorridorSouthern CorridorCity of ChicagoDeKalb County, ILKenosha County, WI
McHenry County
Kenosha County, WI
Northern Lake County
South CentralLake County
NorthShore
Near North
City ofChicago
Southern CorridorSouthwestern Corridor
EasternDuPage County/WesternCook CountySouthwestern
DuPage County/Aurora/Kendall County
St. Charles/Batavia/Geneva
DeKalbCounty
Northern DuPage County
Arlington Heights/Palatine/Wheeling
Schaumburg/Hoffman Estates/Streamwood/Elk Grove Village
Northern Fox Valley
The Chicago Region’s 17 Representative Submarkets
Chicago Metropolitan Area 14,598 1,229 1,638 -91.6 -88.8City of Chicago 224 26 16 -88.4 -92.9Suburban Area 14,374 1,203 1,622 -91.6 -88.7
Northern Corridor 1,463 224 275 -84.7 -81.2Northwestern Corridor 3,687 436 531 -88.2 -85.6Western Corridor 3,134 290 436 -90.7 -86.1Southwestern Corridor 4,277 165 320 -96.1 -92.5Southern Corridor 1,118 31 38 -97.2 -96.6DeKalb County 385 15 9 -96.1 -97.7Kenosha County, WI 310 42 13 -86.5 -95.8
(1) Seasonally adjusted, annualized rate YTD June.Source: Tracy Cross & Associates, Inc.
2011 2011 2012(1)
Percent Change
2012(1)Total Single Family Sales 2005 - 2005 -
Corridor 2005
Single Family Sales Trends by Area2005, 2011, and 2012
Per Project Sales Rates – The Single Family Sector-- Suburban Chicago --
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
20112012
0.003.006.009.00
12.0015.0018.0021.0024.0027.0030.0033.0036.0039.00
(1) Seasonally adjusted, annualized rate YTD June.
Source: Tracy Cross & Associates, Inc.
Average Annual Sales by Development
(1)
31.1229.9533.4535.1932.4732.4430.4621.9913.36
6.914.755.175.988.57
SuburbanYear Area
Average ANNUALSales by Development
19992000200120022003
2010
2012(1)
200420052006200720082009
2011
Suburban Single Family Sales Leaders-- YTD June 2012 --
Program Location
Autumn Creek Fields Yorkville Pulte $205,990 49.14Blackberry Crossing-West Montgomery Ryland 200,190 41.86Winchester Glen-Meadows Carpentersville Pulte 223,190 40.98Liberty Lakes Wauconda K. Hovnanian 245,138 40.84Churchill Club-Derby/Arlington Oswego K. Hovnanian 229,852 36.40Symphony Meadows-Prairie Volo D.R. Horton/Cambridge 214,561 36.40Lakewood Crossing-Meadows Hampshire Ryland 169,990 34.61Cambridge Lakes-Meadow/Prairie Pingree Grove D.R. Horton/Cambridge 207,323 34.58Providence-Cape Cod Estates Elgin K. Hovnanian 297,648 32.76Talamore-Landmark Huntley Ryland 229,390 32.76Providence-Blackstone Elgin K. Hovnanian 248,995 32.69Talamore-Hartford Huntley Ryland 285,323 30.94Grande Park-Anfield Plainfield Ryan 268,865 30.94Whitmore Place St. Charles M/I 267,323 29.12Carillon at Stonegate Aurora D.R. Horton/Cambridge 220,990 27.30Cambridge at Heatherstone-Horizon Beach Park D.R. Horton/Cambridge 195,178 27.30Mill Creek-Tanna Geneva ShoDeen 303,390 27.30Misty Ridge Romeoville Beechen Dill 237,490 27.30
(1) Seasonally adjusted, annualized rate.Source: Tracy Cross & Associates, Inc.
Sales PriceAverage Base
SAARYTD June
Builder 2012(1)
Chicago Metropolitan Area 18,689 1,703 1,558 -90.9 -91.7City of Chicago 7,302 580 513 -92.1 -93.0Suburban Area 11,387 1,123 1,045 -90.1 -90.8
Northern Corridor 2,294 236 266 -89.7 -88.4Northwestern Corridor 2,676 275 237 -89.7 -91.1Western Corridor 3,158 430 351 -86.4 -88.9Southwestern Corridor 1,710 124 111 -92.7 -93.5Southern Corridor 1,110 45 75 -95.9 -93.2DeKalb County 308 4 5 -98.7 -98.4Kenosha County, WI 131 9 0 -93.1 ---
(1) Seasonally adjusted, annualized rate YTD June.Source: Tracy Cross & Associates, Inc.
Corridor 2005 2011 2012(1)
Percent Change 2005 - 2005 -
2011 2012(1)
Total Townhome/Condominium Sales
Townhome/Condominium Sales Trends by Area2005, 2011, and 2012
Townhome/Condominium Sales Trends-- The New Construction Sector – Suburban Chicago --
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
20112012
01,0002,0003,0004,0005,0006,0007,0008,0009,000
10,00011,00012,000
(1)
Total Sales
7,967 337 23.638,547 324 26.35
10,012 318 31.519,141 325 28.16
10,935 376 29.1111,489 392 29.3211,276 436 25.84
8,613 471 18.305,098 484 10.542,181 448 4.871,423 373 3.821,287 289 4.461,123 213 5.261,044 171 6.12
(1) Seasonally adjusted, annualized rate YTD June.Source: Tracy Cross & Associates, Inc.
2009
2011 2012(1)
Numberof Active
Communities
20032004
20012002
2010
2005200620072008
Year Sales Community
19992000
AverageAnnual
Total Volume Per
Moderate Density Condominium Sales Trends-- The New Construction Sector – Suburban Chicago --
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
20112012
0200400600800
1,0001,2001,4001,6001,8002,0002,2002,4002,600
(1)
Total Sales
1,345 62 21.671,391 64 21.851,763 60 29.251,450 60 24.002,067 80 25.852,367 94 25.132,389 109 21.952,009 117 17.17
759 120 6.30292 106 2.76185 84 2.20301 65 4.63197 47 4.16120 37 3.22
(1) Seasonally adjusted, annualized rate YTD June.Source: Tracy Cross & Associates, Inc.
2011 2012(1)
200520062007200820092010
199920002001200220032004
Total of Active Volume PerYear Sales Communities Community
AverageNumber Annual
Suburban Attached Sales Leaders-- YTD June 2012 --
Program Location
Regency at The Glen-Villas Glenview Pulte $431,240 127.86Mayfair-Grant Park Naperville M/I 260,240 41.86Talamore-Towns Huntley Ryland 139,990 38.22Sheffield Square-Uptown Orland Park M/I 215,240 37.93Patriot Square-Seaboard Plainfield D.R. Horton/Cambridge 150,000 30.94Regency at The Glen-Townes Glenview Pulte 325,740 29.06Shelbourne Crossing Winfield M/I 215,240 27.30Mayfair-Uptown Naperville M/I 226,240 25.48Arlington Crossings Arlington Heights Pulte 276,990 24.24
(1) Seasonally adjusted, annualized rate.Source: Tracy Cross & Associates, Inc.
Builder Sales Price 2012(1)
SAARAverage Base YTD June
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
20112012
03,0006,0009,000
12,00015,00018,00021,00024,00027,00030,00033,00036,00039,00042,000
0.04.08.012.016.020.024.028.032.036.040.044.048.052.056.0
New Construction Home Sales By Public And Private Companies
Percent CapturePublic Builders (Line)
Total SalesRegion (Bar)
(1)
24,327 2,641 10.9 21,686 89.125,615 3,690 14.4 21,925 85.627,012 4,692 17.4 22,320 82.626,616 5,849 22.0 20,767 78.028,158 6,943 24.7 21,215 75.331,843 7,952 25.0 23,891 75.033,287 9,369 28.1 23,918 71.925,105 7,466 29.7 17,639 70.315,377 4,783 31.1 10,594 68.9
6,361 2,294 36.1 4,067 63.93,552 1,722 48.5 1,830 51.53,101 1,374 44.3 1,727 55.72,932 1,451 49.5 1,481 50.53,196 1,787 55.9 1,409 44.1
Source: Tracy Cross & Associates, Inc.
Public Builders Private BuildersPercent
Year Sales Sales Capture Sales CaptureTotal Percent Total
(1) Seasonally adjusted, annualized rate YTD June.
2012(1)
2003
20062007
2001
20082009
20112010
20042005
Total
2002
19992000
The Suburban Rental Market-- An Overview --
“Not all households like these choose to live in the city.”
Rental Apartment Vacancy Trends-- Suburban Chicago --
All Communities
19951996
19971998
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
20112012
0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0
10.011.012.0
(1)
Percent Vacant
(1) As of June.Source: Tracy Cross & Associates, Inc.
19961997
19981999
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
2012
$800$850$900$950
$1,000$1,050$1,100$1,150$1,200$1,250
$0.85$0.90$0.95$1.00$1.05$1.10$1.15$1.20$1.25$1.30
Average Monthly Rent Rent Per Sq. Ft.
Average Monthly Rent (Bar)
Source: Tracy Cross & Associates, Inc.
Rent Per Sq. Ft. (Line)
(1) As of June 2012.
(1)
Monthly Rent Trends-- Suburban Chicago --
Post 1985 Rental Communities
Rent/Value Analysis – A Composite Summary-- Suburban Chicago Apartment Communities --
Number of Programs 71 49 21
Number of Units 16,092 9,077 3,361Average Per Program 227 185 160
Average Year Built 1997 2003 2006
Average Plan Size (Sq. Ft.) 991 967 1,007
Average Monthly Rent $1,315 $1,307 $1,681Per Sq. Ft. $1.33 $1.35 $1.67
Slope (Average Rent Movement $0.89 $0.99 $1.22Per Incremental Sq. Ft.)
Average Monthly Rent:@ 600 Sq. Ft. $967 $944 $1,184@ 700 Sq. Ft. 1,056 1,043 1,306@ 800 Sq. Ft. 1,145 1,142 1,428@ 900 Sq. Ft. 1,234 1,241 1,550@ 1,000 Sq. Ft. 1,323 1,340 1,672@ 1,100 Sq. Ft. 1,412 1,439 1,794@ 1,200 Sq. Ft. 1,501 1,538 1,916@ 1,300 Sq. Ft. 1,590 1,637 2,038
Source: Tracy Cross & Associates, Inc.
Attribute or Later or Later or Later
All Programs All Programs Mixed-Use ProgramsBuilt in 1995 Built in 2000 Constructed in 2000
Mid-Density/
Rental Apartment Absorption Trends-- Suburban Chicago --
19961997
19981999
20002001
20022003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20102011
2012
-800-400
0400800
1,2001,6002,0002,4002,8003,2003,6004,000
(1)
Net Absorption in Units
(1) Annualized pace for the first six months of the year.Source: Tracy Cross & Associates, Inc.
Some Final Comments