THE TRANSGENDER SCHOOL DIRECTIVEAnalyzing Montana Opinions

Polling Population Data

• Montana Statewide Live Interview Poll conducted May 23-26, 2016

• n=450 (+/- 4.62%)

• Landline: 75% / Cell Phone: 25%

• (Sex) Male: 48% / Female: 52%

• (Age) 18-34: 13% / 35-44: 14% / 45-54: 17% / 55-64: 27% / 65+: 29%

• (Voter Propensity) High: 55% / Average: 25% / Low: 20%

55

%

35

%

10

%

V E R Y F A M I L I A R L I T T L E F A M I L I A R N O T H E A R D

Q 1: Fami l iar i ty with Obama Transgender Direct ive

Q 1: “President Obama has directed the Departments of Justice and Education to issue a joint statement about transgender students to all public schools in the United States. The directive instructs schools to treat any child who self-identifies as a transgender or gender-fluid no differently than biological boys and girls. In other words, boys who self-identify as girls should be treated like girls, and girls who self-identify as boys should be treated like boys. If public schools do not follow this directive, it is possible that federal funds could be withheld. Are you familiar with this directive?”

Many Montanans know about the Transgender School Directive.

29%

62%

8%

S U P P O R T O P P O S E N O O P I N I O N

Q 2: Do you support or oppose Pres ident Obama’s

t ransgender and gender - f lu id d i rect ive to Amer ica’s

publ ic school s?

People oppose the transgender directive by a 2 to 1 margin prior to hearing any arguments on the issue. These are extremely strong numbers.

Montanans OPPOSE the Transgender Directive (Pre-Argument).

46%

23%

15% 2

1%

21%

30%

40%

70% 7

4%

74%

69%

63%

13%

3%

8%

5% 8

%

7%

N O C H I L D RE N U N D E R 5 6 T O 1 1 1 2 T O 1 7 1 8 T O 2 2 2 3 O R O L D E R

Q 2: Do you support or oppose Pres ident Obama’s t ransgender and

gender - f lu id d i rect ive to Amer ica’s pub l ic school s? (PRE -ARGUMENT)

Support Oppose No opinion

The margins between parents and non-parents are striking. Parents of school-age children were extremely opposed to the measure. Those without children were slightly supportive, but this margin evaporated after arguments from both sides were heard.

Montanans OPPOSE the Transgender Directive (Pre-Argument).

Q 5: “Opponents of the directive point out that it is morally wrong to allow a child who has not yet hit puberty to make the life-altering decision of changing his or her gender. If a child is not mature enough to drive, smoke or drink alcohol; then that child’s decision to change genders should also be delayed until adulthood.”

72%

26%

AG R E E D I S AG R E E

Q 5: Opponents bei leve a chi ld shouldn't be

deciding hi s or her gender unt i l adul thood.

Children and teens should delay the question of gender until adulthood.

This was the weakest argument supporting the transgender school directive. Montanans do not believe transgender discrimination is a major problem in Montana. This suggests that the directive is a poor solution for a non-existent problem.

23%

72%

AG R E E D I S AG R E E

Q 10: Supporters of the d i rect ive say that t ransgender and gender - f lu id

d i sc r iminat ion i s a major p rob lem in Montana. They suggest that th i s

di rect ive i s absolute ly necessary, even i f i t c reates other minor

problems.

Transgender discrimination is NOT a problem and the Transgender Directive is NOT well-thought-out.

74%

25%

AG R E E D I S AG R E E

Q 15: Opponents suggest the des igners of the d i rect ive

d id not th ink th rough the consequences and more

prob lems w i l l be created, than so lved.

Q 15: “Opponents of the directive believe that the designers of the rule did not think through any of the consequences. Will boys who self-identify as girls be eligible for female athletic or academic scholarships? How will a school handle a child that decides to ‘work the system’ and get access to the boys and girls locker rooms by self-identifying as gender-fluid? This directive is going to cause far more problems than it solves.”

Transgender discrimination is NOT a problem and the Transgender Directive is NOT well-thought out.

Most believe that the directive could ruin girls sports (even Democrats).

67%

26%

AG R E E D I S AG R E E

Q 9: Opponents point out that boys who ident i fy as g i r l s

w i l l be p lay ing on b io log ica l g i r l s spor t s teams, desp i te

obv ious phys ica l advantages.

Q 9: “Opponents of the directive point to the fact that boys who self-identify as girls will be encouraged to play on organized sports teams with biological girls, despite the boys’ likely anatomical advantage in height, weight and strength. This has the potential to invalidate Title Nine protection for girls, since biological

sex assigned at birth is no longer a clear line. This will have a dramatic effect on women’s sports.”

Many want traditional public bathroom rules, but some are open to a neutral third option.

44%

20%

34%

K e e p a s th e y a r e Al l o w c h o i c e N e u t r a l b a th r e q .

Q 21: Wh ich of the fo l low ing do you th ink i s the best way to

deal w i th t ransgender bathrooms in pub l ic p laces?

Q 21: Recently, the debate over transgender and gender-fluid people’s use of public bathrooms has dominated the headlines. Some companies, like Target, have publicly announced that their bathrooms are open to the transgendered, while some states, like North Carolina, have passed laws requiring people utilize the

facilities associated with their birth certificate sex. Which of the following best describes your position?

a) They should just keep things as they are and people should use the restroom for the gender indicated on their birth certificate.b) They should change their policy and make it so transgender and gender-fluid people can use whichever bathroom they feel fits them best.c) They should be required to have a gender-neutral bathroom in addition to male and female restrooms.

The poll clearly demonstrates that parents (and even non-parents) become very opposed to the transgender school directive when their kids are put in the position as victims and forced participants.

Focus on the parents.62%

29%

Y E S N O

Q 19: Do you bel ieve that ch i ld ren and teenagers w i l l be

phys ica l ly or emot ional ly harmed i f th i s d i rect ive i s

implemented and s tudent s who were born oppos i te sexes

are forced to share the same bathrooms, locker rooms,

shower fac i l i t ies and hote l rooms?

47%

68%

85%

74%

74%

57%

36%

23%

10%

23%

21%

32%

N O CH I L D RE N U N D E R 5 6 T O 1 1 1 2 T O 1 7 1 8 T O 2 2 2 3 O R O L D E R

Q 19: Do you bel ieve that ch i ld ren and teenagers w i l l

be phys ica l ly or emot ional ly harmed i f th i s d i rect ive i s

implemented and s tudent s who were born oppos i te sexes

are forced to share the same bathrooms, locker rooms,

shower fac i l i t ies and hote l rooms?

Yes No

A total of 68% of those polled would be LESS LIKELY to support a candidate that supported the transgender school directive.

Voters Much Less Likely To Vote For Directive Supporters.

14%

11%

9%

57%

10%

M U C H M O R E L I K E LY S O M E WH AT M O R E

L I K E LY

S O M E WH AT L E S S

L I K E LY

M U C H L E S S L I K E LY D O N ' T K N O W

Q 22: Are you more or less l i ke ly to vote for a candidate runn ing for

pub l ic of f ice that support s the t ransgender d i rect ive?