The Worst Crime Against All Humanity

The Worst Crime Against

All Humanity

Changing Earth’s Climate

The climate crime is much worse than ecological debt.

It is the worst injustice ever and it isNOW.

It is the crime of all time.

Part OneWhat is the evidence?

Part TwoHow long have governments

known?

has already been denied!

The Right to Survive

PART

ONE

EVIDENCE

Today’s committed global warming and climate change is the worst ever

crime against humanity — and against all Humanity.

The Crime of All Time

17/11/10

Emitting global warming greenhouse gases

is like shooting burning arrows at the future.


Committed global warming?

Evidence for the Crime of All Time

Due to the inertia of the planetary climate system, it takes about 30 years for emissions to register as a surface temperature increase.

Today’s global temperature increase is committed to double - even without any more emissions.

What is “committed” temperature increase?

Year Adapted from IPCC

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 2200

Global average temperature

Global CO2 emissionsrapidly cut to virtual zero

30 year heat lag

Doubled temperature

increase


The temperature increase we must look at to assess impacts is at least 1.6ºC

and that is a terrible crime.

0.8ºC

1.6ºC

Today’stemperature increase

Today’s absolute commitment

Staying on today’s business as usual scenario, andwith no new UN treaty, where are we headed?

IPCC 2007 global average temperature increase

from pre-industrial


1.5ºC by 2030

2.0ºC by 2050

Global emissions are tracking the IPCC’s worst case scenario

(A1F1).

The Crime of the Industrialized Nations


UNFCCC Website

From the UN FCCC Secretariat website


A world under stress

— UNFCCC Secretariat


— UNFCCC Secretariat


Food security

Policy Implications of Finding that Climate Change is a Crime Against Humanity and Against All Humanity

Force industrialized nations to act

Demand Accountability


It’s his planet and his climate.

Climate-vulnerable developing nations could use international law to break the current deadlock in the intergovernmental negotiations on climate change by taking industrialised nations to court.

– Foundation for International Environmental Law and Development, 4 October 2010

The Best Hope to Get Industrialized Nationsto Stop Catastrophic Greenhouse Pollution


We demand the creation of an International Tribunal of Climate and Environmental Justice that has the legally binding capacity to prevent, judge, and punish those states, companies, and individuals that pollute and cause climate change by their actions or omissions.

— 2010 Cochabamba People’s Climate Agreement International Climate Justice Tribunal


Estimated deaths due to climate change, in 2000 IPCC 2007


Committed global warming today is double 2000 global warming.

2C is three times 2000 global warming.

The trend of the climate change killing is already established by people already dying

All the deaths, deprivation and suffering of the developing world

are being MULTIPLIED


The Earth’s climate supports our water and food supplies. The huge number of people – especially children – suffering and dying from malnutrition, starvation, disease, lack of water, and “natural” disasters is right now being multiplied.

Climate change multiplies all of these impacts. Changing the climate multiplies all of the human rights abuses and deprivations of the economically oppressed and vulnerable.

Children (in all regions) are most vulnerable to all impacts of

global climate change.

The Crime Of All Time

Changing the Planet’s Climate

Decreases water securityDecreases food securityDecreases health securityDecreases civil securityAnd diminishes the future

of humanity




This presentations relies solely on government reports

like the IPCC assessmentsas documented proof

of the worst ever Crime

Against Humanity


GDP

Greenhouse gas emissions

Today’s Great Offense Against Humanity

This situation is long-standing

common knowledge.

Child mortality

Third World debt $2.9 trillion

Daily payments $100 million(World Bank 2008)

1. refuse to acknowledge that we are “beyond dangerous climate interference” (1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change), or that a state of planetary emergency exists

2. aim for a catastrophic global average temperature increase target of 2.0ºC

3. have known for at least a decade the science of catastrophic global climate change and that a 2.0ºC temperature increase (indeed less) is catastrophic for the Global South

4. have ignored the impacts on water, food, and health security in the vulnerable Global South

5. ignore the greatest disastrous and catastrophic dangers from global climate change for the survival of human populations and all future generations

6. assume that over the short term, they will gain from global warming of up to 2.0ºC while the Global South will suffer disastrous losses

7. have done nothing to mitigate the massive inevitable losses of the most climate change vulnerable populations, numbering over a billion


Industrialized Nations:

The 2ºC “target” is a thoroughly documented

crime against humanity.

In 2009, against the submissions of the most climate change vulnerable nations, the industrialized nations stuck to their longstanding 2.0ºC temperature increase policy target, by means of the Copenhagen Accord.


2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity

The EU 2⁰C climate policy adopted in 1996… a level that scientists say will avoid the worst consequences ….


But even below this level climate change will have significant impacts.

Many poor developing countries are among the most vulnerable to climate change but also have the least resources to cope with it.

From the EU Climate Change Site 2010

Maximum 1.0ºC increase above pre-industrial levelsIncreases beyond this may elicit rapid, unpredictable and non-linear responses that could lead to extensive ecosystem damage.

2.0ºC too dangerous … increase above pre-industrial entails unacceptably high ecosystem and societal risk.… we must expect that in many places in the world there will be a crisis in the world food supply and ecosystems and the corresponding disruption of socio-economic systems and a loss of several islands.

1990 WMO/ICSU/UNEP Advisory Group on Greenhouse Gases (AGGG) analysis of "targets and indicators" for climate change `(IPCC precursor)

Vellinga, P. and R. Swart (1990), "The Greenhouse Marathon: Proposal for a Global Strategy", pp. 129-134 in J. Jager and H.L.Ferguson (Eds) (1990), Climate Change: Science, Impacts and Policy, Proceedings of the Second World Climate Conference, World Meteorological Organisation. Cambridge University Press.

19901990 UN Position for Climate Safety is 1.0ºC


2004 EU … recognizes that 2°C would already imply significant impacts on ecosystems and water resources....

— 2610th Council Meeting, Luxembourg, 14 October 2004

2008 EU The 2.0ºC limit cannot be considered as safe, as severe impacts are likely to occur increasingly as the global mean temperature rise approaches 2.0ºC above pre-industrial levels. Changes in extremes such as heat waves, droughts, and extreme precipitation events will largely shape future climate change impacts. In particular significant impacts are expected on species, ecosystems, water resources, low latitude agriculture and small island states.


The EU has acknowledged that its 1996 2.0ºC policy target is not safe and is catastrophic to the most climate change vulnerable populations.

European Union and the 2ºC Target

Food security is not acknowledged as a climate change danger in climate change policy making.

For example, it is not listed under the IPCC Climate Science “Reasons for Concern” that determine policy.

But it is one of the dangers interfering with the climate system specified in the 1992 UNFCCC !

Food Security Not Protectedby the 2ºC Limit



The IPCC has never stated that 2⁰C is safe - or dangerous.


2ºC

Climate change is already increasing extreme weather impacts at today’s +0.8ºC!

Extreme weather (heat waves, droughts, floods) is the most damaging impact to both agriculture and human health.

It is now more likely than not that human activity has contributed to observed increases in heat waves, intense precipitation events, and the intensity of tropical cyclones.

— IPCC Reasons For Concern, 2007

Risk of Extreme Weather Events

1.5ºC

Commitment is 1.6ºC.Policy is 2ºC.

• More intense and longer droughts have been observed over wider areas since the 1970s, particularly in the tropics and subtropics.

• Increased drying linked with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation has contributed to changes in drought. •

• The frequency of heavy precipitation events has increased over most land areas, consistent with warming and observed increases of atmospheric water vapour.

• Widespread changes in extreme temperatures have been observed over the last 50 years. .. heat waves have become more frequent.


Heat Waves and Droughts are Already Increasing !

— IPCC 2007Commitment is 1.6ºC.Policy is 2ºC.

The 2007 IPCC Assessment

17/11/10

Corn

Rice

IPCC 20072007


Food Security in the Tropics at +1.0ºC

Today’s committed global average temperature increase according to climate science.

Committed global average temperature increase by policy target of industrialized nations.

Global average temperature increase from pre-industrial

Committed temperature increase from combined pledges (Carbon Tracker).


Adapted from IPCC 20072007

17/11/10

IPCC Chart of Impacts (impacts start where the text starts)

Water Security

Decreasing water availability and increasing drought

in the mid-latitudes and semi arid lower latitudes.

Hundreds of millions of peopleexposed to increased water stress.

2


Complex localizednegative impacts onSmallholders, subsistence farmersand fishers.

Tendency for cereal productivity to decrease in low latitudes.

Increased coral bleaching. Most corals bleached.

Tendency for some cereal productivity to increase at mid-and high latitudes.

This is almost all the food This is almost all the food production in the most production in the most vulnerable regions!vulnerable regions!


FOOD SECURITY

CLIMATE DEATHS CLIMATE REFUGEES

Increased damage from floodsand storms.

Millions more people experience coastal flooding each year.


Health

Increasing burden from

Increased morbidityand mortality from

• malnutrition • diarrheal disease • cardio-respiratory problems• infectious diseases

• heat waves• floods • droughts


• malnutrition • diarrheal disease • cardio-respiratory• infectious diseases

• heat waves• floods • droughts• floods• storms

Millions more people experience coastal flooding each year

Less cereal productivityin low latitudes

Less food from smallholders, subsistence farmersand fishers

in the mid-latitudes and semi arid lower latitudes

Less water availabilityIncreasing drought

Today

Increased morbidity and mortality from:

Combined cumulative toll of humansufferingand death

Global temperature change from pre-industrial

Populations Affected by Losses of Food and Water

250 Million

1.2 Billion

80 Million

20% GDP


IPCC 2007

Today

600 Million

1 Billion

180 Million



According to the IPCC’s highly conservative figures, at a 2ºC global average temperature increase, an additional 1.5 billion people will be deprived of food and water – almost all of them in the developing nations.

Terrible though they are, for many reasons these IPCC estimates of regional climate change mortalities are not underestimates.

They do not account for the additive effect of the main causes of increased mortality from increasing malnutrition and infections.

The climate crop models on which estimates of death from malnutrition are based do not include about half of the adverse effects of global climate change on agriculture.

The very large impact of extreme weather events on both agriculture and human health is not yet captured in the computer models.

IPCC 2007on

Food Security

Crop productivity is projected to increase slightly at mid to high latitudes for local mean temperature increases of up to 1.5-3.5⁰C depending on the crop.

At lower latitudes and especially dry and tropical regions crop productivity is projected to decrease for even small local temperature increases 1.5-2.5°C.

Globally the potential for food production is projected to increase with increases in local average temperature over a range of 1.5-3.5°C but above this it is projected to decrease.

[This means a reduction of global food output above the global average temperature increase of 3°C or less.]


World Food Decline at +3.0⁰C,World Food Decline at +3.0⁰C,+1.5ºC for Developing Regions+1.5ºC for Developing Regions

— IPCC (2007),),Food, fibre and forest products, Policymakers Summary

IPCC 20072007


Palmer Drought Severity Index

Great Increase in the World Drought Severity Index from 1900 to 2005

Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity

IPCC 2007

Increase in the Frequency of Dry Days by 2100

IPCC 2007

Suitability for Rain-fed CropsDark green shows the world’s best agricultural regions.

[The best agricultural regions of the world coincide with the trend in the greatest frequency of dry days.]


The very best agricultural regions of the world are dried up by

changing the climate.


This will put world food prices into a continuously rising trend which will be devastating for poor nations and poor people of all nations. This alone will cause mass unremitting starvations in Africa which in this situation will not get relief from food aid. (Authors comment)

17/11/10



Food Security

IPCC 2007

80% of world’s crops are grown by rain-fed agriculture. World food security is disastrous at +2ºC.At +3ºC, 50% losses in the most climate change vulnerable regions of the developing world.

Climate Change Crop Model Results

World Bank 2008 IPCC data


Global Temperature Increase of 2.0ºC Disastrous to Agriculture

Food Loss for Developing Nations at +1.5ºC+1.5ºC


IPCC 20072007


The reduction in crop yields will be considerably higher than the IPCC estimates because about half of the adverse impacts are not reflected by climate crop models.

In particular this includes the impact of extreme weather events and the toxic effect of increase in ground-level ozone on green plants and crops.

Food Loss

IPCC 2007

Fresh water security

IPCC 2007

IPCC 2007 on Health


Weighing the Health Impacts

IPCC 2007 2007


Health Impacts

IPCC 2007


Health Impacts

Increasing Malaria

Other Deadly Tropical DiseasesTransmitted Infections.

A range of mathematical models indicate, with high consistency, that climate change scenarios over the coming century would cause a net increase in the proportion of the world's population living in regions of potential transmission of malaria and dengue.

A change in climatic conditions will increase the incidence of various types of water- and food-borne infectious diseases.

IPCC 2007

Health Impacts


IPCC 2007

The now inevitable increasing global warming and climate change will accelerate today’s high death rate from starvation and infections amongst the developing world populations, who are most vulnerable to climate change and the most innocent in causing climate change.

Continuing global greenhouse gas pollution isthe worst imaginable crime

against humanity

A Crime Against the Future of All Humanity



Risks after 2100 are Excluded

2100

Why only to 2100?

Climate change assessments and policy only consider the impacts up to the year 2100, ignoring impacts to all future generations.

CO2 emissions 1000 years

Even cutting carbon emissions to virtually zero,

the global warming is set to doubleand last thousands of years!

From IPCC 2001

2.0ºC

1.0ºC

1000’s of years1000’s of yearsTemperature

ZERO CARBON

Today


The 2007 IPCC assessment puts an absolute upper limit on crop tolerance to regional temperature increases of 3.5ºC (from preindustrial), which is equivalent to a maximum 3°C global average increase.


Global food production declines at 3°C (or sooner)

Declines in crop yields from climate change are in practice irreversible. So-called adaptation in the best of situations can only delay declines by a few years.This is shown by IPCC 2007 model results with adaptation.

Part TwoHow long have the governments of

industrialized nations known of the inevitable

terrible calamitous impacts

to the most climate change vulnerable populations

and to all future generations ?

Through the IPCC assessments, which are examined and approved

by governments, these dangers have been known and

acknowledged by industrialized nations since 1990-1995.

Since 1990!


The crime of all time…

Since 1990

The IPCC record shows that in the 1990 assessments and all subsequent assessments, the industrialized nations have known of the catastrophic impacts to the most vulnerable populations and their economies. Since 1990 these industrialized nations have assumed that they were not vulnerable to economic losses.

This particularly relates to food security.

Note: it is now clear that food security is vulnerable in all regions.


The 1990 assessment and all subsequent assessments found that low latitude tropical and arid regions would lose out on food security with declining crop yields at minimum temperature increases of 1 to 2⁰C, while the northern hemisphere temperate regions would not lose and could gain from an increase in crop yield, up to towards the end of the 21st century.


2⁰CFood Losses for Developing World

According to the first IPCC assessment in 1990, practically everything was known to direct policy making so as to avoid catastrophic climate change impacts on the huge populations of the most climate change vulnerable people living in the developing nations, and who still are more vulnerable because of economic deprivations and lack of social services.

In every succeeding IPCC assessment, the amount of research documentation has increased enormously, and this has served to confirm the conclusions and judgments of the 1990 IPCC assessment.

The same projection of the loss of food security for the most climate change vulnerable regions at +1-2⁰C is in the 1990 and the 2007 assessments.

All Necessary Information is Documented

in the first IPCC 1990 Assessment


IPCC 1990 1990 1st assessmentThat global average temperature increases follow the business as usual fossil fuel economy has been known since 1990.

IPCC 1990


For the business as usual best and high estimates, these 1990 projections are identical to the IPCC 2007 business as usual projections.

IPCC 1990 1990 (1st Assessment)


Impacts on Food at +1-2.0ºCIPCC 1990 1990 1st Assessment

(Same as IPCC 2007)


Impacts on FoodIPCC 1990 1990 (1st Assessment)


There is a possibility that potential productivity of high and mid latitudes may increase because of a prolonged growing season, but it is not likely to open up large new areas for production and it will be mainly confined to the Northern Hemisphere.

Patterns of agricultural trade could be altered by decreased cereal production in some of the currently high-production areas, such as Western Europe, southern US, parts of South America and Western Australia.

With respect to southern US and Western Australia this has been confirmed by recent studies. (Authors comment)

— IPCC 19901990 1st Assessment


Health Impacts — IPCC 1990 1990 (1st Assessment)



Some population groups in developed countries are also highly vulnerable even to a warming of of less than 2ºCless than 2ºC.

There is high confidence that warming of above 1.5ºC1.5ºC would include key negative impacts in some regions of the world, and pose new and significant threats to certain highly vulnerable population groups in other regions.

IPCC 2001 1.5ºC1.5ºC


IPCC 2001 Health

Climate change is likely to have wide-ranging and mostly adverse impacts on human health, with significant loss of life.


IPCC 20012001Health


IPCC 2001

Food Security



IPCC 2001Food Security

Studies suggest that temperature increases may extend the geographic range of some insect pests currently limited by temperature.

Most agricultural diseases have greater potential to reach severe levels under warmer conditions.


Increasing (and different) weeds, pests and plant diseases cause increasingly heavy losses to food production especially in developing regions

IPCC 2001Food Security

Human Health: Human health is predicted to be adversely affected by projected climate change. Temperature rises will extend the habitats of vectors of diseases such as malaria. Droughts and flooding, where sanitary infrastructure is inadequate, will result in increased frequency of epidemics and enteric diseases. More frequent outbreaks of Rift Valley fever could result from increased rainfall. Increased temperatures of coastal waters could aggravate cholera epidemics in coastal areas.

Water: Africa is the continent with the lowest conversion factor of precipitation to runoff, averaging 15%.. Current trends in major river basins indicate a decrease in runoff of about 17% over the past decade. Reservoir storage shows marked sensitivity to variations in runoff and periods of drought. Lake storage and major dams have reached critically low levels. Model results indicate that global warming will increase the frequency of such low storage episodes.

Food Security: There is wide consensus that climate change, through increased extremes, will worsen food security in Africa. The continent already experiences a major deficit in food production in many areas, and potential declines in soil moisture will be an added burden.

Africa 2ºC Worst Ever Crime Against Humanity

Increasing diseases, infections,

water deprivation, and starvation.

IPCC 2001

The evidence amounting since 1990 is definitive.

Huge populations of the most climate change vulnerable are already condemned to massive unprecedented human suffering and loss of life from heat waves, floods, drought, lack of water, lack of food, famine, increased tropical diseases and increased gastrointestinal infections- which will impact on these populations together.

Today the greatest crime against humanity ever has been committed.

At 1.6ºC.

The Crime Of All Time

The climate policy of the industrialized nations has been to allow the global temperature to rise by 2.0ºC ever since 1996 - now reinforced by the 2009 Copenhagen Accord.

This condemns unprecedented unimaginable extents and rates of suffering and death, amounting to a policy of virtual extermination of the Global South.

It also condemns the Global North to face declining yields of food crops from extremes of heat and weather - which will never end.

At 2.0ºC The Crime Of All Time

Changing the global climate beyond long known danger limits

by constant greenhouse gas pollution is the worst possible crime

against humanity and all future generations.

Documents

The Worst Crime Against All Humanity