THEATER SHAPING WITHALLIES & PARTNERS:MARITIME SECURITY

19 March 2012Prof. K. L. Nankivell

nankivellk@apcss.org1

THEATER SHAPING WITHALLIES & PARTNERS:

AGENDA

2

1. Understanding the Theater:Three Revolutions

2. Challenges for U.S. Policy & Engagement:Operational TechnologiesOrganizational

First Revolution:Changing Structure of Trade

First Revolution:Changing Structure of Trade

Lloyd’s Maritime Intelligence Unit, 2010

52%

22%

20%6%

World Seaborne Trade,value, 2010, %

Containers

Tankers

General Cargo

Dry Bulk

First Revolution:Asian Dominance

High trade volume, low trade density

6

65% of the world’s navies

Estimates up to 111 new subs for Asia through 2030

16 Large Deck units in build or planned2 Large Deck

12 Subs

12 Subs

6 Subs2 Subs

4 Large Deck2 Subs

3 Large Deck15 Subs

8 Subs

NAVAL UNITS RECENT AND PLANNED

8 Subs?

2 Subs

4 Subs?

2 Subs

3 Subs

30 Subs

2 Large Deck?

2 Large Deck

20 subs?

6 Subs

Second Revolution:Ocean-going Players

3 Large Deck

NWP 1-14M, U.S. Navy

Third Revolution:Legal Provisions for the Global

Commons

9

‘So What’ for U.S. Policy & Engagement

Access to technology

Relevance of technology to national interest

Supportive or corrosive to partnerships?

consider: Japan, ROK,

Singapore, Australia, Taiwan;

Vietnam, India, Philippines?

Lead agencies Legal constraints &

mandates Operational and

diplomatic reach

Operational Technologies Organizational

10

‘So What’ for U.S. Policy & Engagement

11

‘So What’ for U.S. Policy & Engagement

Big strategic pay-offs need to be sought with the partner’s drivers and constraints in mind:

AccessRelevanceSupportPlug-in

DISCUSSION

Kerry Lynn Nankivellnankivellk@apcss.org

(808) 564-5011

13

SOVEREIGNTY DISPUTES IN SOUTH ASIA

As adjudicated by ITLOS

14 Mar 2012

Taiwan

Macclesfield Bank(PRC, Vietnam, Philippines, Taiwan)

Senkaku/Diaoyu Dispute(Japan, PRC, Taiwan)

Take-shima/Dokdo Issue(Japan, ROK)

Northern 4 Isls Issue(Japan, Russia)

SOVEREIGNTY DISPUTES IN

EAST ASIA

Spratly Isls(Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei,Philippines, Taiwan, PRC)

Paracel Isls(PRC, Vietnam, Taiwan)

‘International Boundary’ announced by China

EEZ Line (Japan)

Map source: the University of Texas at Austin

Northern Limit Line (UN)

Thai-Cambodia Dispute

Unfriendly Neighbors:Beaufort Sea

16

THE QUEST FOR RESOURCES

18

19

20

Ladd Reef,Vietnam OccupiedSpratly Islands2007

21Mischief Reef, 2007PRC Occupied

22

Okino TorishimaJapanese Occupied

2010