Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution: First ideas for scenarios

Matti VainioClean Air for Europe programme

Working Group on Target Setting and Policy Assessment

16 June 2004

Outline

Target based approach– Comply with current Air Quality legislation– No exceedance of critical loads and levels of

acidification and eutrophication

Measures based approaches– Reducing ship emissions– Reducing road emissions

Measures effecting energy baseline

Target based approach

1. Comply with current Air Quality legislation (Framework Directive and Daughter Directives)– Only annual averages can be calculated– Including (an equivalent of) anthropogenic PM2.5– Note that RAINS can model only urban

background concentrations• RAINS could model what it would take to comply with

urban background

• Could one convert ”hot spots” to equivalent urban background?

Target based approach (2)

2. No exceedance of critical loads and levels of acidification and eutrophication– can we make it by 2020?

Optimizing on

Environment– Acidification

• Accumulated exceedence– Eutrophication

• Accumulated exceedence– Ozone

• Annual average (AOT40?) … ozone flux? Health

– Meet EU limit values– Mortality due to O3 (AOT35) and PM2.5 (gap filling of lives

saved) = Population weighted exposure to O3 (AOT35) and PM2.5

• Effect of aging population?• What would be the first step?

Markus

Impact assessment of policy packages– Cannot say anything about cost effectiveness

For T/S scoping for ambition level for pollutants– Need to get optimisation running– Meteorology

Measures based approach

In this meeting: focus is on transport sector– note that rail sector has been recently regulated

up to 2015 and thus no new measures are considered

– aviation emissions for Nox could be considered as part of measures reducing greenhouse gas emissions

Measures based approach (2) Reducing ship emissions

– First ideas for modelling

Reducing road emissions– Euro 5 for passenger cars– Euro 6 for heavy duty trucks– Stage 2 to reduce evaporative emissions from

petrol filling stations

Measures based approach (3) Transport sector (cont)

– Measures to reduce emissions from “captive fleet”• Purchasing low emission buses in urban areas

– e.g. through subsidies (CleanUp)

• Reducing emissions from existing vehicles (e.g. retrofitting buses)

– Effect of refueling

• Better maintenance

– Using infrastructure/congestion charging

Effects of modifying the energy baseline Effects on air pollution of the removal of

energy subsidies – It would be good to know if this impact is large

or small

Effects of climate change policies on energy baseline

Questions

We have tried to pick up “obvious” scenarios– Do you concur?

Should we define other scenarios already at this stage?