Théorie Financière2004-20053. Tableau de financement et planning financier

Professeur André Farber

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Financial statements and cash flows

• Objectives for this session

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Levers of Performance

Return on Equity

Return on Invested Capital Leverage

Profit Margin Asset Turnover

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Summarized (managerial) balance sheet

Assets

Fixed assets (FA)

Working capital requirement (WCR)

Cash (Cash)

Liabilities

Stockholders' equity (SE)

Interest-bearing debt (D)

FA + WCR + Cash = SE + D

Working capital requirement : definition

+ Accounts receivable+ Inventories+ Prepaid expenses

- Account payable- Accrued payroll and other expenses

Interest-bearing debt: definition

+ Long-term debt+ Current maturities of long term debt+ Notes payable to banks

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Net Working Capital

• Net working capital can be understood in two ways:

• as an investment to be funded: Current Assets - Current Liabilities

• as a source of financing=Stockholders' equity + LT debt - Fixed Assets

Fixed Assets

Current Assets

Stockholder’s equity

Long term debt

Current liabilities

Net Working Capital

Current ratio: a measure of NWC

Current ratio = Current assets / Current liabilites

Net working capital = Current assets - Current liabilites

Current ratio > 1 NWC > 0

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Net Working Capital vs Working Capital Requirement

• Summarized balance sheet identity:

• FA + WCR + CASH = SE + LTD + STD

• can be written as:

• WCR + (CASH - STD) = (SE + LTD - FA) 

• WCR + NLB = NWC

Working Capital

Requirement

Net Liquid Balance

Net Working Capital

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Return on invested capital

• Return on assets (net)= Net income / Total assets• Advantage: fits with DuPont system

• ROE = ROA x Equity multiplier

• Limitation: Net income = EBIT - Interest expense - Taxes

– Depends on capital structure:

• 1. Interest expense: function of interest-bearing debt

• 2. Interest expense : tax deductible

• Preferred measure: Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

• NB: ROIC = ROA (gross) (1 - Tax rate)

• = ROE of a all equity financed firm

debt bearingInterest equity rs'Stockholde

TaxRate)-EBIT(1ROIC

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Financial leverage

• Financial leverage magnifies ROE only when ROA (gross) is greater than the interest rate on debt.

• Balance sheet: TA = SE + D

• Income statement: NI = EBIT - INT- TAX• Interest expense INT = r D (Interest expense = Interest rate x Interest-bearing debt)

• Taxes TAX = (EBIT - r D) Tc (Taxes = Taxable income x Tax rate)

• Remember : ROIC = ROAgross (1 - Tc)

• ROE = ROIC + (ROAgross - r) (1-Tc) (D/SE)

SE

Dc

TrSE

TA

TAc

TEBIT

SE

NIROE

)1(

)1(

SE

DTrROICROICROE c ))1((

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Sources of Cash Inflow and Cash Outflow

Operating ActivitiesSales of goods and services

Investing ActivitiesSale of fixed assetsSales of LT financial assets

Financing ActivitiesIssuance of stocks and bondsLT and ST borrowing

Operating ActivitiesPurchase of suppliesSelling, general and administrative expensesTax expenses

Investing ActivitiesCapital expenditures and acquisitionsLT financial investments

Financing ActivitiesRepurchage of stocks and bondsRepayment of debtDividend payment

CASH

CF from operating activities

CF from investing activities

CF from financing activities

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Farber.com: a fable

• Starting a local version of Amazon.com

• Initial balance sheet t = 0

Cash 100 Book Equity 100

• Operations year 1: Sell 2 books @ €100 each Buy 2 books @ € 50 each

• Income statement year 1:

Revenue 200

Expenses 100

Net Income 100

• But….cash account = 0 What happened?

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Farber.com: what happened….

• Final balance sheet t = 1

Cash 0 Book Equity 200

Account Receivable 200

• Statement of cash flows: reconciles the two views– Direct method: + Cash collected from customers 0

- Cash payment to suppliers + 100

= Cash flow from operations - 100– Indirect method: Net Income +100

-Working Capital Requirement + 200

= Cash flow from operations -100

No payment from clients Initial Capital + Retained Earnings

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Farber.com: additional complications

• Initial balance sheet t = 0

Cash 100 Book Equity 100

• Operations year 1: Borrow and buy 2d hand computer @ €200 Sell 1 books @ €100 each Buy 2 books @ € 50 each

• Income statement year 1:

Revenue 100

Cost of goods sold 50

Depreciation 100

Interest 10

Net Income -60

• Final cash account -10

Straight-line depreciation

2 years

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Farber.com: details

• Final balance sheet t = 1• Cash -10 Book Equity 40• Account Receivable 100 Debt 200• Inventories 50• Fixed Assets 100• Total 240 Total 240

• Statement of cash flows: direct method

Cash collection from customers 0 (=REV - AR)

-Cash payment to suppliers 100 (=CGS+ INV)

-Cash paid for interest 10

Cash flow from operating activities -110

Cash flow from investing activities -200 (= FA+Dep)

Cash flow from financing activities +200

Change in cash -110

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Farber.com: statement of cash flows - indirect method

• Statement of cash flows

Net Income -60

+Depreciation +100

-Working Capital Requirement + 150

= Cash flow from operations -110

Cash flow from investing activities -200

Debt +200

Cash flow from financing activities +200

Change in cash -110

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Notations

• Income statement

• REV Revenue

• CGS Cost of goods sold

• SGA Selling, general and administrative expenses

• Dep Depreciation

• EBIT Earnings before interest and taxes

• Int Interest expenses

• TAX Taxes

• Tc Tax rate

• NI Net income

•

• Balance sheet

• FA Fixed assets, net

• AR Accounts receivable

• INV Inventories

• CASH Cash & cash equivalents

• SE Equity capital

• LTD Long term debt

• AP Accounts payable

• STD Short-term borrowing

• Statement of retained income

• DIV Dividendes

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Income statement and balance sheet

• Income statement

• EBIT = REV - CGS - SGA - Dep

• TAX = Tc (EBIT - Int)

• NI = EBIT - Int - TAX

• Balance sheet equation

• FA + AR + INV + CASH = SE + LTD + AP + STD

Working capital requirement: WCR AR + INV - AP

=(Current assets - CASH) - (Current liabilities - STD)

Summarised balance sheet:

FA + WCR + CASH = SE + D (D = LTD + STD)

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Cash flow statement : indirect method

FA + WCR + CASH = SE + D

FA = AQ - Dep AQ = Acquisitions - Disposals (investing & divesting)

SE = NI - DIV + KK = New issuance of capital

(NI + Dep - WCR) - (AQ) + (K + D -DIV) = CASH

Cash flow from

operating activities

Cash flow from

investing activities

Cash flow from

financing activities

+ + =

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Statement of cash flows: direct method

+ Cash collection from customers

- Cash payment to suppliers and employees

- Cash paid for interest

- Cash paid for taxes

= Cash flow from operating activities

+ Cash flow from investing activities

+ Cash flow from financing activity

= CASH

REV - AR

CGS + INV + SGA - AP

Int

TAX

(REV-CGS-SGA-Int-TAX)- WCR

-AQ

K + D - DIV

NI+Dep-WCR

(NI + Dep - WCR) + (-AQ) + (K + D - DIV) = CASH

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Free Cash Flow

• Free Cash Flow = Cash flow from operating activities

+ Cash flow from investing activities

• Calculating free cash flows of all equity firm:

Free Cash Flow = EBIT(1-TC) + Dep - WCR - AQ

• Statement of cash flows for all-equity firm:

Free Cash Flow = DIV - K + Cash

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Financial Forecasting

EBITDA-Depreciation=EBIT-Taxes+Net Income

Income Statement

Statement of

Cash Flows

CF from operating activities

UpdateBalance

Sheet

CF from investing activitiesCF from financing activities

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Financial Planning

• Based on ∆Revenues

• Assumptions on key ratios relating Revenues to:

• Gross margin: m = EBITDA /Revenues

• Working capital requirement: w = WCR / Revenues

• Net fixed assets: a = NFA / Revenues

• Financial policy:

• Payout ratio p = DIV/Net Income

• Depreciation d = Depreciation / Fixed Assets-1

• Environment:

• Tax rate TC

• Cost of debt i

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Data

• Revenues year 0: 2,000

• Growth rate year 1: 25%

• Balance sheet end year 0Net Fixed Assets 600

Working Capital Requirement 400

Cash 0

Total Assets 1,000

Book Equity 600

Debt (financial) 400

Total Liabilities + Stockholders’ equity

1,000

Gross margin: m = 30%WCR: w = 20%Net fixed assets: a = 30%Payout ratio p = 50%Depreciation d = 10%Tax rate TC = 40%Cost of debt i = 10%

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Step 1: Income statement

Year 0 Year 1

Sales 2,000 2,500 Rev-1 (1+g)

EBITDA 750 m × Rev

Depreciation 60 d × NFA-1

EBIT 690

Interests 40 i × D-1

Taxes 260

Net Income 390

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Step 2: Statement of Cash Flows

Year 0 Year 1

Net Income 390 From Income Stat.

Depreciation 60 From Income Stat.

∆WCR 100 w × Revenues

CF from operations 350

∆NFA 150 a × Revenues

Depreciation 60

CF from investing -210

Div 195 p × Net Income

Stock Issues/buy back 0 Assumption

∆Debt 55 Plug

CF from financing -140

∆Cash 0

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Step 3: Update balance sheet

Year 0 Year 1

Net Fixed Assets 600 750 NFA-1 + Inv – Dep

Working Capital 400 500 WCR-1 + WCR

Cash 0 0 Cash-1 + Cash

1,000 1,250

Book Equity 600 795 BEq-1+SI + NI – DIV

Debt 400 455 D-1 + D

1,000 1,250

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The Full Model

Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4Income StatementSales 2,000 2,500 3,125 3,906 4,883EBITDA 750 938 1,172 1,465Depreciation 60 75 94 117EBIT 690 863 1,078 1,348Interest Expenses 40 46 52 61Taxes 260 327 410 515Net Income 390 490 616 772Statement of Cash FlowsEarnings 390 490 616 772Depreciation 60 75 94 117Var WCR 100 125 156 195Operating Cash Flow 350 440 553 694Var Net Fixed Assets 150 188 234 293Depreciation 60 75 94 117Cash Flow from Invest -210 -263 -328 -410Dividends 195 245 308 386Var Book Equity 0 0 0 0Var Debt 55 67 83 102CF from Financing -140 -178 -225 -284Var Cash 0 0 0 0Balance SheetFixed assets 600 750 938 1,172 1,465Working Capital 400 500 625 781 977Cash 0 0 0 0 0

1,000 1,250 1,563 1,953 2,441Book Equity 600 795 1,040 1,348 1,734Debt (Financial) 400 455 522 605 707

1,000 1,250 1,563 1,953 2,441

Financial planningSales growth rate 25%Gross margin 30%Depreciation rate 10%Cost of debt 10%Tax rate 40%Payout 50%WC/Sales 20%NFA/Sales 30%

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Sustainable growth

• What growth rate can a company achieve without requirement additional external equity?

Assets = (a+w) Revenues Assets = Book Equity + Debt

• = Book Equity + Book Equity

• = Net Income (1 – Payout)(1 + )

• = (Revenues) (Profit Margin)(1-Payout)(1+ )

• g = Revenues / Revenues

• = (Profit Margin)(1 – Payout)(1+ ) / (a+w)

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Sustainable Growth: example

• Back to previous example:

– a+w = 0.30

– Net Profit margin = 15%

– Payout ratio = 50% = Debt / Book Equity = 2/3

– g = [15% (1 - 0.50) (1+2/3) ] / 0.30 = 41.67%