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THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign and Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Toward Better Understanding of Typhoon Life Cycle. CAS TECO Incheon , Korea 16 November 2009. T. Nakazawa 1 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign
and Tropical Cyclone Structure-08
Toward Better Understanding of Typhoon Life Cycle
T. Nakazawa1
P. Harr2, S. C. Jones3, and D. Parsons4
JMA/MRI1,, NPS2, Univ. of Karsruhe3, WMO4
CAS TECO Incheon , Korea 16 November 2009
The background picture was taken by Yomiuri Shinbun on Sep. 11 2008
Upgraded Russian Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPYRadiosonde Network for IPY
U.S. (NOAA)U.S. (NOAA)
WinterWinter
NOAA G-4 andNOAA G-4 and
Air Force C-130sAir Force C-130s
JapanJapanPalauPalau
Typhoon Landfall
EU, US, Japan, Korea, Canada
[DLR Falcon, NRL P-3]
WMOWMOWCRP/WWRPWCRP/WWRP
Asian/IndianAsian/IndianMonsoonMonsoon
U.S.U.S.ONR/NSFONR/NSF
TCS-08TCS-08[NRL P-3, WC-130][NRL P-3, WC-130]
THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign/Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Experiments and Collaborative Efforts
SoWMex
TH08
PROBEX
TCS-08, TC formation, structure, intensification, satellite validation,targeted observations
Upgraded Russian Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPYRadiosonde Network for IPY
U.S. (NOAA)U.S. (NOAA)
WinterWinter
NOAA G-4 andNOAA G-4 and
Air Force C-130sAir Force C-130s
JapanJapanPalauPalau
Typhoon Landfall
EU, US, Japan, Korea, Canada
[DLR Falcon, NRL P-3]
WMOWMOWCRP/WWRPWCRP/WWRP
Asian/IndianAsian/IndianMonsoonMonsoon
U.S.U.S.ONR/NSFONR/NSF
TCS-08TCS-08[NRL P-3, WC-130][NRL P-3, WC-130]
THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign/Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Experiments and Collaborative Efforts
SoWMex
TH08
PROBEX
Extra observations and targetedobservations to improvetrack prediction
Additional Targeting Component at DLR and FZK, Germany
Upgraded Russian Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPYRadiosonde Network for IPY
U.S. (NOAA)U.S. (NOAA)
WinterWinter
NOAA G-4 andNOAA G-4 and
Air Force C-130sAir Force C-130s
JapanJapanPalauPalau
Typhoon Landfall
EU, US, Japan, Korea, Canada
[DLR Falcon, NRL P-3]
WMOWMOWCRP/WWRPWCRP/WWRP
Asian/IndianAsian/IndianMonsoonMonsoon
U.S.U.S.ONR/NSFONR/NSF
TCS-08TCS-08[NRL P-3, WC-130][NRL P-3, WC-130]
THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign/Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Experiments and Collaborative Efforts
SoWMex
TH08
PROBEX
Extratropical transition,downstream impacts, targeted observations
Additional Extratropical Transition Components at DLR and FZK, Germany
Operations center, Monterey, CA
Driftsonde center,
Driftsonde Balloon release,Hawaii
Aircraft locations, andaircraft operations centers
Guam
Japan
Taiwan
Okinawa
THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC)THORPEX (The Observing-System Research and Predictability Experiment)
AndTropical Cyclone Structure-08 Experiments (TCS-08)
Collaborative Efforts
Operations and Observation Strategies
• Mission objectives– NRL P-3
• TC formation, structure, intensification, TUTT structure, targeting for formation, extratropical transition
– WC-130J• TC formation, structure, intensification, satellite
validation, targeting for formation and track, extratropical transition
– FALCON• Typhoon targeting, extratropical transition, targeting,
ridge-building, tropical water vapor transport– DOTSTAR
• Typhoon targeting
Operations: Aircraft
Tropical Circulation Systems by the numbers…
• During August – September, there were 12 total systems > TD intensity over the western North Pacific– 4 typhoons, 4 tropical storms, 4 TDs
• 51 TCS systems– With a few recycled a time or two
• 11 systems in which aircraft missions were flown– 4 typhoons, 1 TD, 1 ex-TS, 5 others
• 72% of all missions were flown on the 4 typhoon cases– 6 Nuri, 28 Sinlaku, 5 Hagiput, 15 Jangmi (54/75 = 72%)
Operations by the numbers…• Over 500 aircraft mission flight hours
– 216 C-130, 179 P-3, 83 Falcon, 37 DOTSTAR• 76 missions
– 25 Falcon, 23 C-130, 21 P-3, 7 DOTSTAR• 7 airfields
– Andersen AB, Guam; NAF Atsugi, Japan; Kadena AB, Japan; Taiwan, Yokota AB, Japan; MCAS Iwakuni, Japan; Misawa AB, Japan
Japan, Atsugi, NAF
Okinawa, Kadena AFB
T-PARC/TCS-08 Components
Guam, Andersen AFB
ET characteristics, forcing of downstream impacts, tropical/midlatitude interactions, extratropical cyclogenesis
Extratropical Transition (ET – recurvature), Downstream Impacts
Midlatitude operating regionNRL P-3, FALCON
TY Nabi, 29 Aug – 8 Sep, 2005
Large-scale circulation, deep convection, monsoon depressions, tropical waves, TC formation
Tropical Measurements
Tropical operating regionDriftsonde, NRL P-3, DOTSTAR, WC-130
Subtropical operating regionDriftsonde, NRL P-3, DOTSTAR, WC-130
TC track characteristics, tropical/midlatitude interaction
TC Intensification and structure changeRecurvature, initiation of ET
TY Sinlaku (TCS-033 / TD15W)
28 Missions• 8 Structure– P-3, C-130, DOTSTAR• 6 Targeting– Falcon• 14 ET– P-3, C-130, Falcon
Coverage• 09/0030 – 09/1045• 09/2100 – 10/1225• 10/2043 – 11/1828• 12/1138 – 12/2318• 13/2330 – 14/0555 • 15/2135 – 16/0205 • 16/0500 – 16/0800• 16/2044 –17/1115• 17/2224 – 18/0720 • 18/2235 – 19/0725• 20/0156 – 20/1206• 20/2205 – 21/0205
First simultaneous observations of TY-core, TY-environment and distant sensitive region (“Sinlaku”)
Joint mission of:• Falcon (yellow)• C-130 (black) • DOTSTAR (red)
JMA Typhoon EPS JMA Typhoon EPS
2008.09.09 06UTC ini +132h2008.09.09 06UTC ini +132h
JMA Medium-Range EPS JMA Medium-Range EPS
2008.09.08 012UTC ini +216h2008.09.08 012UTC ini +216h
EPS track forecasts
ECMWF EPS 2008.09.08 12UTC +120hECMWF EPS 2008.09.08 12UTC +120h GFS EPS GFS EPS
2008.09.09 12UTC ini +168h2008.09.09 12UTC ini +168h
Numerical Guidance Products
Sensitivity Guidance: Obs. Time 09/11 00ZECMWF NOGAPS JMA
UM ETKF UK ETKF COAMPS
Sinlaku by NCEP GFS 9/10 00UTC
AllObs
BTNoObs
500 hPa ASYMMETRIC STREAMF’N DIFF
500 hPa ASYMMETRIC WIND
DIFF+00 h +00 h
+18 h +18 h
Effect of drops:Strengthened vortex, decreased RMWStrengthened subtropical ridge, inducing northwestward flow
Courtesy of S. Aberson
DOTSTARAllObs
CenterAll w/Cycle
BTNoObs
CenterAllObs
NoObsDOTSTAR
All w/Cycle
(Courtesy of Dr. Martin Weissmann)
Sinlaku by ECMWF 9/10 00UTC
Rapid recurvature and moving
Better track forecast at the
beginning
Red : With Drop ( Test ) Blue : Without Drop ( Cntl )
Black : JMA Besttrack
850-1000 hPam/s
400-700 hPam/sTest - Cntl
Stronger wind (about +6m/s)
(m)
Difference in Z and Wind
SINLAKU by JMA 9/11 12UTC
AllObs BT
NoObs
Impacts of Sondes differ in models
Accepted/Rejected DS Data on 9/11 12UTC
• Not in Targeted Observation
• But maybe in the Systems
(Analysis, Model)– First Guess
– Assimilation of Data (accept/reject)
near the TC center
• Data Quality near the center
– DOTSTAR gives large impacts
• Better Quality around the TC
Why?
(Courtesy of Dr. Martin Weissmann)
TCRejected Data
Tropical Cyclone Intensity/Structure Changes, Extratropical Transition, and Downstream Impacts
TY Sinlaku recurves to move east-northeast under strong westerly shear
Despite the strong shear, Sinlaku re-intensified to typhoon strength as the ET process initiated.
C-130
Falcon
P-3
Aircraft missions for ET of Sinlaku on 5 consecutive days (3 days joint C-130, Falcon, P3 missions)
22 UTC 17 September – 08 UTC 18 September
ET Time
Among ensemble members, standard deviation increased downstream of the Transitioning typhoon. Also, considerable variability existed among forecast
sequences of downstream development as defined by local eddy kinetic energy budget calculations
Firsts• First four plane operation in a WPAC TC• First systematic targeting operation in the WPAC
– Comparison of several methods from a variety of operational and research organizations
– Multiple aircraft– ECMWF/UKMO Data Targeting System
• First systematic observations of full extratropical transition process– Multiple aircraft, land-based radar, MTSAT rapid-scan winds– Timed with satellite overpass
• First operation of WC-130Js at 31,000 ft altitude except when penetrating a mature TC– Dropped sondes and AXBTs from high altitude– Timed with passage of polar-orbiting satellites for satellite intensity
validation• First buoy drop in front of a WPAC TC
– Two TCs– First time a category 5 TC passed over buoys dropped in its path
Firsts• First operation of the Driftsonde in the Pacific
– Launch from Hawaii– Dropsonde data retrieved and sent to GTS for use in
operational numerical weather forecasting models• First use of the ELDORA radar in typhoons over
the western North Pacific flight operations in:– Cloud clusters– Developing tropical cyclones– Mature tropical cyclones– Tropical cyclones undergoing extratropical transition
• First Doppler wind and DIAL lidar observations for typhoon targeting and during extratropical transition
Summary
• Anomalous weather conditions to start– Non-existent monsoon trough– Anomalous low-level easterlies– Weak wave activity and strong upper-level cold lows
(TUTT) dominated throughout August– 1 typhoon– However, many aircraft missions conducted for TC
formation, wave structure, TUTT structure, subtropical cyclone development
• Active September– 3 typhoons (1 super typhoon, i.e. cat 5)– 2 recurvature tracks
• Successfully addressed all science objectives in field phase
Future• Data Management
– Distributed archive structure (http://catalog.eol.ucar.edu/tparc_2008/ or http://tparc.mri-jma.go.jp)
– Aircraft dropwindsonde, flight-level data, FALCON lidar (wind and DIAL) QC complete and data available on data catalog
– P-3 Lidar near complete; Driftsonde data being examined• Research Strategies
– Diagnostic Studies of tropical cyclone formation, intensity, structure changes, extratropical transition, and downstream impacts
– Validation of satellite-based estimates of tropical cyclone intensity and structure
– High-resolution modeling:• Assimilation of Doppler radar/lidar data• Tropical cloud cluster characteristics and TC formation hypotheses• Extratropical transition processes
– Predictability• Systematic evaluation of targeting techniques• Data impact studies• Analysis of ensemble prediction systems