Thoughts on Monitoring, Analyzing,and Predicting Weather on the

Mesoscale

John T. SnowCollege of Geosciences

The University of OklahomaNorman, Oklahoma USA

Vitoria, Spain14 July 2003

Outline1. Who I Represent – the Oklahoma

Weather Center2. Background – Two-Fold Motivation3. Overview of the Advanced Regional

Prediction System (ARPS) – with two digressions

4. ARPS Applications In The Real World5. Decision Tools for Operational

Forecasters and Emergency Managers6. One Vision for the Future

• National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL)

• Storm Prediction Center (SPC)• National Weather Service Forecast

Office• Radar Operations Center (ROC)• Warning Decisions Training Branch

(WDTB)

• School of Meteorology (SoM)• Department of Geography (GEOG)• Center for Analysis and Prediction of

Storms (CAPS)• Oklahoma Climatological Survey

(OCS)• Cooperate Institute for Mesoscale

Meteorological Studies (CIMMS)• Environmental Verification and

Analysis Center (EVAC)• International Center for Natural

Hazard and Disaster Research (ICNHDR)

• Center for Spatial Analysis (CSA)

2. Background – A Two-Fold Motivation

Why Society Supports A Meteorological Community• Reduce “Nature’s toll” –

provide advance warning of severe and hazardous weather to protect lives, mitigate property losses

• Increase economic returns – provide information to decision makers to reduce losses, improve economic efficiencies, and enhance economic competitiveness

Reducing Nature’s Toll• Severe weather watches and warnings:

– Watch: Forecasted conditions are such that severe weather is expected to occur at a future time over a region

– Warning: Observed conditions indicate that severe weather is occurring or is imminent

• Public response training on meaning of watch/warning and proper response to each hazard is an essential and never-ending task– Requires collaboration of emergencies services,

law enforcement, the media, and schools– Annual events to educate, reinforce, and update– Immediate: Seek shelter (tornado)– Long term: Wise choices (hail-resistant roofs)

Source: NWS Office of Science and Technology

NEXRAD

NEXRAD

Example: Evolution of Tornado Warnings Over Time

Weather/Climate and the U.S. Economy• Over 30% of the $10 trillion US economy is negatively

impacted each year– Thunderstorms, blizzards, heat waves, cold periods, and

hurricanes cause economic losses in the US that average $300 M per week;Agriculture losses exceed $10 B/year;Commercial aviation loses $1-2 B per year due to diversions, delays, and cancellations (one diverted flight costs $150K)

• The cumulative effects of “typical” events exceed those of infrequent but “major” events– About 50% of losses are preventable with better forecasts!– “typical events” may not impact general populace, but have

serious effects on business

• On plus side, weather-based scheduling, managed energy purchases, use of weather-related financial tools, marketing, etc… all add positively to the “bottom line”

POINT: Weather forecasts on right scale, at right time, with stated uncertainties, are of great value to many business sectors and enterprises!

3. Overview of the Advanced Regional

Prediction System (ARPS)

With two digressions

Mission in the area of Severe Weather

SCIENCE: To demonstrate the capability of using computer models to predict high-impact spring and winter weather, especially individual thunderstorms

TECHNOLOGY: To develop, test, and help implement a complete analysis and forecast system appropriate operational, commercial, and research applications

AAdvanced

RRegional

PPrediction SSystem

Advanced Regional Prediction System (ARPS)

ARPS Data Analysis System (ADAS)

ARPS Numerical Model– Multi-scale non-hydrostatic prediction model with comprehensive physics

– Plots and images – Animations – Diagnostics and statistics – Forecast evaluation

– Ingest – Quality control – Objective analysis – Archival

Single-Doppler Velocity Retrieval (SDVR)

4-D Variational

Data Assimilation

Variational Vel -ocity Adjustment

& Thermo-dynamic Retrieval

ARPS Data Assimilation System (ARPSDAS)

ARPSPLT and ARPSVIEW

Inc

om

ing

d

ata

Oklahoma MesonetWSR-88D Wideband

ASOS/AWOS

SAO

ACARS

CLASS

Mobile Mesonet

Profilers

Rawinsondes

Satellite

Lateral boundary conditions from large-scale models

Gridded first guessData Acquisition

& AnalysisData Acquisition

& Analysis

Forecast GenerationForecast Generation

Parameter Retrieval and 4DDAParameter Retrieval and 4DDA

Product Generation and Data Support System

Product Generation and Data Support System

AAdvanced

RRegional

PPrediction SSystem

ARPS was specifically developed for use on the storm-scale (e.g. 3-km and finer resolution)

ARPS was developed entirely at the University of Oklahoma prizing-winning well-documented code

ARPS is available for use for free within the academic research community and is currently used by researchers around the world

ARPS tech support, tailored products, and numerical modeling services for operational applications is provided via Weather Decisions Technologies, Inc.

The Key To ARPS’ Success:

ARPS Data Assimilation System (ADAS)

ADAS assimilates environmental data from all available sources to develop the best possible 3-D view of the atmosphere at the initial time

• Surface networks• Profilers• Radars• ACARS• Satellites

The First Digression:State-wide Surface

Environmental Observing Network

The Oklahoma Mesonet

Oklahoma Mesonet• 2-way radio communications• Solar-powered• Measurements of pressure, air & soil temperature, relative humidity, wind speed & direction, rainfall, soil moisture, and solar radiation• Automated and manual quality assurance of data

Passage of a Winter Low Pressure System

Surface data with overlaid radar mosaic

The Second Digression:

Weather Radar

The need for remotely-sensed observations of the lower

boundary layer for the detection and prediction of highly-localized

weather (and associated phenomena) has prompted a

decades-long effort to develop a new radar technology and

telecommunications techniques

Oklahoma is today the leader in weather radar research, development, utilization, and

education

The Future: National Weather Radar Test Bed (NWRT)

Phased Array Radar (PAR) Shared Mobile AtmosphericResearch and Teaching

Radar (SMART-R)

Center for AdaptiveSensing of the

Atmosphere (CASA)

Collaborative Radar Acquisition Field Test (CRAFT)

NEXRAD:- Upgrades- Dual Polarization

• A collaborative project to demonstrate the real time compression and Internet-based transmission of WSR-88D (NEXRAD) base data

• Philosophy: Leverage existing infrastructures (Internet), public-domain software (Unidata LDM), and secure, low-cost services (56K phone lines)

• Long-term goal: formal implementation for operations, research, and private industry

The Collaborative Radar Acquisition Field Test (CRAFT)

Based on the success of CRAFT, the NWS has recently launched an initiative to build a national network for the real-time archive and distribution of NEXRAD wideband radar data for completion in 2004

End The Second Digression:

Return toADAS and Weather Radar

Unique Capability in ADAS: Assimilation of Radar Data

ARPS is recognized internationally for its capability to assimilate radar data into a numerical weather model

NEXRAD Radar Observations

Forecasts With and Without Radar Data

Moore, OKTornadic

Storm

2-Hour CAPS Computer Forecast Down to the Scale of Counties

WITHWITHOUT

Forecasting High-Impact Local Weather

NWS Model at 40-km resolution

6-hr precip. forecast

valid 1 p.m., 6/25/03

Forecasting High-Impact Local Weather

ARPS at 27-km resolution

33-hr precip. forecast

Forecasting High-Impact Local Weather

ARPS at 9-km resolution

6-hr storm forecast

Forecasting High-Impact Local Weather ARPS at 3-km resolution

6-hr precip. forecast

ARPS is being used operationally in government and several industrial sectors ….

4. ARPS Applications in the Real World

• 3-year, $ 1 million R&D partnership with American Airlines

• Entrée into working with the commercial sector (only 4 years after initial development of the ARPS)

• Developed a real-time forecast system to use at AA’s DFW hub airport

• AA is in process of moving its weather services division to Norman

…. in Aviation

Sample AA Custom Products

• 5-year, $ 10 million R&D partnership with Williams Energy Marketing & Trading for the development of a real-time forecast system to support energy trading • Due to a sharp downturn in the

energy market, the contract was rescinded after 1-year

• Wind Generation initiatives offer many opportunities for new products in support of operations and trading of “green energy” futures

…. in Energy

• Weather Decision Technologies, Inc. (WDT) is a for-profit private company created to commercialize Oklahoma Weather Center technologies

• WDT holds an exclusive license to the ARPS for commercial use

• Provides mechanism for broad application of the ARPS Aviation Surface Transportation Energy Recreation Broadcast Meteorology

…. for Commercial Meteorology

International Applications• Korea Meteorological

Administration is using ARPS operationally to generate regional forecast products

• ARPS is used by a group from the University of Santiago to generate operational weather products over NW Spain

• Plans exist to set up a weather forecast system in Paraguay based on ARPS technology (through WDT)

5. Support for the Operational Forecasters

and Emergency Managers

Decision-Support Tools

Decision-Support Tools (In Canadian French)

Experimental Visualization Tools

Pseudo 3-D Radar Display of one volume scan

6. One Vision for the Future

Future Paradigm Option #3(‘private-private enterprise’)

WMO NMS

NCEP • analyses• forecasts

End Users

Private MS Measurements& Forecasting

Enterprise• Measurement cos .• Forecasting cos .

• Wx derivatives cos .?• Other cos .??

Core Entity is a private, multi-company enterprise

SYNOPTICOBSERVATIONS:• WMO• NWS• FAA; UCG• Vaisala/GAI ($)

GTS

Note: Numerous sub - options are possible, ranging from one each measurement and forecast companies to multiple companies + other value - added entities

feedback

Courtesy of Walter Dabberdt, 2003

John T. SnowDean, College of GeosciencesThe University of Oklahoma

Sarkeys Energy Center, Suite 710100 E. Boyd Street

Norman, Oklahoma 73019Tel: 405-325-3101

FAX: 405-325-3148E-mail: jsnow@ou.edu

Web: http://geosciences.ou.eduhttp://www.owc.ou.edu