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• 1932: Iraq is officially declared independent• 1958: Monarchy is overthrown by a military coup• 1968: Major Baathist-led coup• 1979: Saddam Hussein becomes president• 1980-88: Iran-Iraq war• 1982: Killing of 150 Shi’a in Dujail following an attempt on Saddam’s life• 1990: Invasion of Kuwait• 1991: Kuwaiti cease-fire and rebellions in the north and south; UN safe-haven

established for the northern Kurds• 1993: Attempted assassination of George Bush in Kuwait; US attacks back• 1996: Oil for food program; Family politics in which Saddam’s exiled relatives

come back on the promise of a pardon and are killed• 1998: Iraq ends cooperation with UNSCOM; US bombing campaign targeting

weapons facilities• 1999: Chief Shiite spiritual leader Sadiq al-Sadr assassinated in Najaf• 2002: Weapons inspectors return to Iraq • 2003: US and coalition troops invade Iraq; Saddam Hussein captured• 2004: Fighting with Shiite militias of Moqtada al-Sadr; handover to interim govt.• 2005: First multiparty election in Iraq• 2007: The US military “surge” begins• 2008: Baath party reintegration law passed• 2010: New legislative elections and government deadlock• 2013: Iraq holds provincial elections

Timeline of Iraqi Politics

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Ethnic and religious cleavages in Iraq

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State development in Iraq• Ruled by the Ottoman Empire and

divided into three governorates (Basra, Baghdad, Mosul)

• Colonized by the British after WWI as part of the Iraqi mandate

• Governed by an imported king, King Faisal, and given nominal independence in 1932

• The Monarchy was overthrown in 1958, followed by a series of military coups d’etat

• Saddam Hussein became president in 1979, as leader of the Ba’ath party

• Under Saddam, Iraq fought the Iran-Iraq war (1980-1988), the war for Kuwait (1990-91) and became a pariah state

Saddam Hussein the state-builder

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Iraq as a republic of fear

• Institutionalized insecurity– Saddam Hussein personally constructed the security apparatus– Internal Security (Amn)—trained directly by the Soviet KGB—based in surveillance– Military Intelligence (Istikhbarat)—directed operations against Iraqis abroad– Mukhabarat (Party Intelligence in Iraq) watches over the other policing networks– 1/5th of the Iraqi labor force was in the security business

• Ba’athist ideology– The importance of mythmaking; of playing up the stories that the state gives you– Done through party manipulation of all the media channels– Overall created few avenues for constructive thought– How did this weaken Saddam’s information on the eve of war?

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The US invasion and early postwar state-building• The US and UK invaded in 2003 with

air raids and 165,000 soldiers

• Baghdad fell to invading troops within 3 weeks

• Iraqi military folded and became a guerilla movement

• Iraq run by a Coalition Provisional Authority (03-04) under Paul Bremer

• The Iraqi Interim Government was appointed (2004-2005) under a secular Shi’a, Iyad Allawi

• Elections of 2005 created a constitutional assembly

• December 2005 elections dominated by the United Iraqi Alliance

Black Hawk air assault (2003)

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Iraq after the 2003 invasion• Iraqi responses to the invasion– Extremely glad to be rid of Saddam– Initial euphoria, then concerns about imperialism– What are the US designs on the region?

• Oil?• Military bases?• A compliant government?

– Government recognizes need for US troops on the ground, public largely wants them out

• Infrastructure issues– For much of the post-invasion period, about 80% of Iraq has an unstable

electrical supply– Crime skyrocketed, with the initial looting of hospitals, national museum– More than 1000 people (civilians and police) a month killed in violence– 100k+ Iraqi civilians killed; Iraqi security services went from over 500k down to

about 150k– 2/3 of the population has had problems with their water supply– Many of pledged reconstruction funds have never been disbursed– 1 million Iraqi refugees went abroad; 1.5 million Iraqis were internally displaced– 60% of full-time jobs in Iraq are government jobs

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Civilian deaths in Iraq by month

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Key players in the Iraqi insurgency

Sunninationalists andBa’athists

Sunni Islamists

• Former army officials out of a job• Saddam loyalists and “Tikritis”• Fedayeen Saddam (irregular military forces)• Iraqi patriots who reject occupation

• Loyalists to Moqtada al-Sadr (Mehdi army)• Badr Organization (Supreme Council for the Islamic

Revolution in Iraq—SCIRI) • Da’wa party militia• Train and organize in Iran

Shi’a militias

• Association of Muslim Scholars• Salafists rooted in transnational Islamist movements• Foreign Muslim jihadists (al-Qa’eda, Ansar al-Islam)

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Other major players in Iraq

Kurdish groups

The US/UK military

• Distinct language, ethnicity, and region• 15-20% of Iraqis• Cross borders into other states• Historically divided into two rival political groups:

Barzani vs. Talabani (peshmerga militias)• Since the 1990s have had a regional government

• Strong historical enmity with Iraq• Most major Iraqi clerics spent time in Iran• Widespread intelligence services throughout Iraq• Allegations of funding Shi’ite militias

Iran and Shi’a clerics

• On average about 100-150,000 troops with different zones of control

• Multinational Force (MNF-I)“Operation Iraqi Freedom”• 2007 surge in troops was followed by a recent

withdrawal

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Reconstructing the state in an insurgency

• Constitutional issues– Federalism– Role of Islam– Sunni representation– Bill of rights

• The insurgency– Sunni insurgency of the aggrieved—based in the Sunni triangle; mingled with Islamists– Shiite insurgency based in a couple of militias led by Moqtada al-Sadr– Role of foreign fighters?– What are the strategies of the insurgency?– What would cause the insurgency to decline?

• Iraqi elections– First for an interim assembly (January 2005); led to a Sunni boycott, but successful

passage of a constitution by referendum– Next for the first legislative assembly (December 2005)– Dominated by the United Iraqi Alliance, which is an umbrella of Shiite groups– Two secular nationalist groups competed– Sunni groupings, Iraqi Islamic party– Deadlock after the March 2010 elections

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Iraqi perspectives on coalition forces

March 2007 Iraqi poll

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Iraqi electoral results December 2005

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Iraqi electoral results 2010

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Key figures in Iraqi politics

Moqtada al-Sadr (Mehdi army)

Nouri al-Maliki (Islamic Dawa)

President Jalal Talabani (PUK)

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The Iraqi government as a grand, fragile coalition

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Iraq’s constitutional choices

Iraq’s constitution

• Islam is official religion of state

• Parliamentary government; weak president elected by the assembly

• Two chambers (Council of Representatives 275-325 seats; Federation Council-with regional representation)

• 18 provinces and 3 regions with substantial federal authority

• Closed (now open) list PR with national district with no electoral threshold; later modified to regional districts

• 25% of seats go to women

• Flexible constitution to allow for greater Sunni participation, but independent judiciary to institutionalize it

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Lecture terms—Iraq

“Republic of Fear”

Saddam Hussein

UNSCOM

2003 invasion of Iraq

Moqtada al-Sadr

Sunni triangle

United Iraqi Alliance

Nuri al-Maliki

Iraqi insurgency