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[NOTICE: THJS DOCUMENT CONTAINS INFORMATION AFFECTING THE

I NATIONAL DEFENSE OF THE TOOTED STATES WITHIN THE MEANING ! : OF THE ESPIONAGE LAWS, TITLE 18, U.S.C., SECTIONS 793.and 794.

THE TRANSMISSION OB, THE REVELATION OF ITS CONTENTS IN

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Fines! Report on Task

CLEAR SHIES AT CERTAIN

STATIONS FHOy PiUIPHiltAL DATA

BUREAU OF AERONAUTICS PROJECT AROWA BUILDING R-48

U. S. NAVAL AIR STATION NORFOLK II, VIRGINIA

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ABSTRACT

The problem of predicting clear sky conditions at twenty-

two specified stations on the Eurasian continent was investigated.

This was a difficult problem since the forecasts were to be made

on the sole basis of observations from adjacent seas.

Surface weather charts covering a 48-year period were ex-

amined for certain meteorological features which make prediction

possible. The overall probability of predictable clear weather

turned out to be only . 11. Greatest success was obtained at Chi-

nese Stations in the winter season.

Data are presented for each station and each month of

the year.

SEfCHET 54AA 7256

SECRET

P R E F A C E

Task 22, assigned to Project A ROW A by the Chief, Bureau of

Aeronautics, required the investigation of the meteorological suitability

of a guidance system being developed for the guided missile "Triton"

at. the Applied Physics Laboratory of Johns Hopkins University,

There were two parts to this research requirement;

a. The percentage of tirae during which satisfactorily clear weather EXISTS over potential target areas,, as a function of time of day and time of year, and

b. The factor of probability with which clear weather conditions CAN BE PREDICTED for the above areas, based on weather data expected to be available under tactical conditions,

This part of the research is an answer to b. ft was accomplished within

a six-week time limit.

Tills study was prepared under the direction of the Officer in

Charge, Commander E. T. Hardings USN, by Lieutenant Commander

F*M. Wolff, USNe Assisting in the preparation of the final report and

in making the 385, 000 forecasts involved were the following Project

personnel:

Corvo, R. A. Dietz, D, R. Eckl, J. Haas, N. R. Hammons, J. H, Liptow, J. R.

Mann, W.L. Mulkern, M. T. Van Duyne, T. A. Hart, J. R. (Mrs. ) CornwelL D. A. (Mrs.)

ii

SECRET

SECRET

TABLE OF CONTENTS

age

TITLE PAGE

ABSTRACT, i

INTRODUCTION. ...........................

XV Jula O x^ JL i* i i3 • • « ^> • a • a •> < (»•#•?••••*«*••#•* * • * ? o © »

in

SECRET

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INTRODUCTION

The problem involved in the selection of clear days at. the twenty-

two stations (shown in Figure 1} is -more one of pattern extension than of

prediction in the normal sense. For several years Project AROWA has

been conducting research on the feasibility of determining meteorological

conditions in an area from which, data are not available. Many of the

techniques used here «ere developed by this Pressure-Height Prediction

Project,,

Although the basic problem is one of extending the pressure pat-

tern into a "silent area" from observations made over an adjoining ocean,

it may be considered a forecast, in that once favorable conditions are

established, they may foe expected to persist for at least sim hours.

During moat cloudy days the lowest layer of clouds is relatively

near the ground. Therefore a favorable surface pressure pattern is a

necessary condition for clear periods. Conveniently, a set of analyzed

surface charts covering the Northern Hemisphere is available, one for

each day of the periods 1899-1939 and 1945-1352 (48 years in ail).

The assumptions on which this study is based can he summarized

as follows:

SECRET

i, Clear \veather is associated with surface pressure pattern,

2, Observations are available from ocean areas but none Zrazn

the Eurasian eon.linens..

3. One prediction per day for 48 years of record constitutes an

adequate lest.

SECRET'

SECRET

- 3

METHOD

Examination of climatological records along with surface pres-

sure charts revealed a number of meteorological model situations which

were accompanied by clear skies at the twenty-two stations. These

models differed according to the location of the stations,

As stated shove, it was required that favorable conditions be

discernible from direct observations at ocean locations or by strong

meteorological inference from ocean data. This requirement, of course,

made prediction difficult in the case of stations located far from waters

accessible to the fleet.

Clear acetate overlays with the twenty-two stations marked upon

them were prepared. When these were placed over each chart of the

series, stations located in meteorological situations favorable to the

occurrence of clear weather were noted. Then the actual weather at

each favorably situated station was examined. If . 1 or less cloudiness

was observed, the forecast was considered successful. Approximately

42a 000 forecasts met these requirements.

RESULTS

The particular method applied results in an assessment of the

probability of predictable clear weather when only peripheral data

SECRET

SECRET

- 4 -

are available. This assessment ignores the other categories of clear

weather: random clearing in a cloudy area, and clearing with weather

conditions which cannot readily be ascertained from adjacent observa-

tions. The percentage of total clear days that can be established by

this method varies with geography and season and is therefore difficult

to obtain. It is highest for the Chinese Stations in winter where only

a few clear daya are not predictable.

The results are summarized in Table I and in Fissures 2 through

9. When the data i'or all stations and. all months were combined the re-

suiting overall probability was . II,,

favorable J^tio^ijdjsys _ *, < total station days

That is, the probability of predictable clear weather at one of

the twenty-two stations on any day is , II.

When the best 5 years at each station are combined the prob-

ability rises to *2&, These years are not consecutive,

When the poorest 5 years at each station are combined the prob-

ability falls to . 02,

The probabilities for each station individually are shown in

Table I and in Fig-ares 2 and 3„ The beat station is Number 5„ the

SECRET

<Ssy*«?'5"f

- 5

poorest stations Nuxnbers S? XSa and 22,

Figures 4 through 8 show the month?.;/ probabilities for each sta-

tion in graphical form. The Asian .swtica* show best conditions in mid-

winter. The Southern Russian atationa are best in fall, while the

Northern Russian stations are quite poor throughout the year.

As was stated in the Preface., this study was completed in nix

weeks. With more time to develop additional satisfactory modelB3 some

improvement could be expected in the probabilities .Cor the HussJsri

stations. But the limit in much, improvement weald probably still leave

ae; average probability of lets® than «10, It la believed that the models

for the Asian stations would show little improvement.

The reader is referred to Part Two of this report for certain

climatologies! and theoretical aspect* of the use of the type of guidance

system uoder study.

SECEET

SECRET

6 -

TABLE I

PROBABILITY OF A PREDICTABLE CLEAR DAY

Station

!

Average j Best 5 years Worst 5 years Total Probability Total Probability Total Probability

" —1 I . 14 .34 .00 2 fl /5 £» .50 .02 3 .20 .41 .02 4 .27 . 48 .08 5 .40 .64 . 17 6 , 33 .59 . 10 7 .06 .23 .00 8 .05 9 c .00 9 .01 .06 ,00

10 .04 ,20 .00 11 . 10 « uu .00 12 ,05 .21 a00 13 .08 „ 30 .00 14 .07 ,00 15 ... ufi ,27 . 00 16 .08 .26 ,00 17 .03 .12 .00 18 .03 .12 .00 19 .02 . 12 .00 20 .03 9 .1. •«> .00 21 .03 .14 .00 22 .02 . 12 .00

averages for j .. ....... ,i . —. ,«i »«.rr.«,,,,. .,nw«. m,

ail stations .11 . 28 \ ,02 ,

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