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Electric and hydrogen vehicles Competing pathways for the

decarbonisation of road transport AlexandreBeaudet

ImperialCollegeLondon–TheUniversityofTokyo2ndJointSymposiumonInnovationinEnergySystems

24September2009

Agenda

•  Objectives&motivations•  Hypotheses•  Results•  Discussion

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Objectives

•  Assessvariousoptionsforlong‐termdecarbonisationofroad‐transport

•  Developoriginalframeworkbasedoninsightsfromhistoricalandeconomicresearchoninnovationandtechnicalchange

•  Outofscope:biofuels,modalshifts,etc.

Automotive futures

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EV

Steam ICEV

ICEV

HEV

Biofuels

Hydrogen

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Prior art •  Environmental(andenergysecurity)uncertainties

–  e.g.time/placeofcharging,efficiencyofH2pathways

•  Technicaluncertainties–  e.g.current/projectedstatusoflithiumbattery,PEMfuelcell,hydrogenstorage

•  Commercialuncertainties–  e.g.drivingrange,marketacceptanceof‘city’BEVs,limitedH2coverage)

•  Infrastructureuncertainties–  e.g.impactofpeaktimecharging,impactofH2onnaturalgasmarkets,costofvariousoptions

‘Businessasusual’case

Highefficiencycase(HEV,etc.)

Decarbonisation(EV,HV,biofuels)

TotalCO2

2050

Why hydrogen & EVs?

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Which is better?

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Road transport as a system

Regulations&policyMaintenance&distribution

Settlementandmobilitypatterns

AutomobiletechnologyCulture&symbolic

meanings

Roadnetwork&trafficsystem

Fuelrefining&distributioninfrastructure

High‐volumeautomobileproduction(‘Fordism’)

Financialinstitutions

Fillingstationnetworks

Oilexplorationandextraction

Roadtransportsystem

System transitions (EVs)

Regulations&policyMaintenance&distribution

Settlementandmobilitypatterns

AutomobiletechnologyCulture&symbolic

meanings

Roadnetwork&trafficsystem

Powergeneration&distributioninfrastructure

High‐volumeproduction

Financialinstitutions

Charginginfrastructure

Electricitybasedroadtransportsystem

RenewablesCCSSmartgrid(…)

AdvancedbatteriesRecyclinginfrastructure

Post‐lithiumbatteriesRenewablematerials

ElectricmotorsPowerelectronicsHybridpowertrains

High‐powersupply(LevelII)StreetchargingSmartmeteringRapidchargingBatteryswapping

AxialfluxmotorsIn‐wheelmotors

Renewablematerials

WirelesschargingV2G

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Hypotheses •  Evolutionarypotentialasakeyfactorofsuccessfornewtechnologiesandtechnologicalsystems–  Representativeexamples:earlygasolineICEVs,railways,electricity,telephone,mobilephones&otherITC

•  Keyroleofnicheandhybridapplicationsasearlymarketpoints

•  Transitionssupportedbytechnologyandinfrastructurespillovers

•  EndogenousR&Dandinfrastructureworkscamelater•  Asaresult,radicalchangewaseffectivelyincrementalisedovertimeandspace

The role of spillovers

Spillovers

Application x1

Application x2

Application x3

Sub‐trajectory1 Sub‐trajectory2 Sub‐trajectory3

Synergies

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Externally support virtuous cycles

Extra‐industryspillovers

Niche&hybridapplications

R&Dand

infrastructureLearning‐by‐

doing

The case of early motor vehicles

Change

Radicaltechnologicalchange(e.g.HEV)

Systemictransition(e.g.EV,HV)

Infra‐structure

Technology

Radicalinfrastructuralchange(e.g.1stgenbiofuels,NGV)

Incrementalinnovation(e.g.advancedICengines)

Continuity ChangeTechnologicalchange

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Research scope & methods •  Scope

  Technology  Components(lithiumbatteries,fuelcells)

  Vehicles(nichemarkets,hybridarchitectures

  Infrastructure  Technology(e.g.SMR)

  Networks

•  Methods  Extensiveliteraturereview&stakeholderinterviews  Qualitativeresearch

  ‘Early’applications(stationary,consumerelectronics,materialshandling,etc.)

  Potentialspillovereffects  Assessmentofinfrastructurebarriers&marketentrypointsforEVsandFCVs

  Bibliometricanalysisoffuelcellandbatterypatents

Key results •  FCVsareinherentlymore‘revolutionary’

–  Lackofstartinginfrastructure–  Lowspilloverpotentialfrom‘early’fuelcellapplications–  Lackofniche/hybridisationpaths–  Positives:merchantproductioncapacity,largeR&DeffortsatOEMs

•  ‘Evolutionary’characterofEVswasconfirmedatalllevels–  Powergeneration&gridcapacity–  Decarbonisationofelectricity–  Charging(~50%ofhouseholds)–  Lithiumbatterytechnology(–  NicheBEVsandplug‐inhybrids

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ShareofallUSPTO

paten

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Fuelcell Battery

R&D trends

Knowledge structures

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Leading FCV alliances

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OEM specialisation

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FHI

Nissan

Renault

Mitsubishi

Toyota

Hyundai

VW

Honda

AESC

LEJ

PEVE

NEC

GSYuasa

Panasonic

LGChem

Toshiba

Continental

Isuzu

BMW JCS

BlueEnergy

Johnson Controls

PSA

EnaxDaimler

GM

Hitachi

SAFT

Ford

Sanyo

Leading EV alliances

Leading battery IP owners

Batteryrelatedpatents(active),asofDec.312007

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Lithium battery markets

Cellularphones53%NotebookPCs

26%

Otherportableelectronic

11%

Powertools3%

Other7%

2006,byvolume

Portable/consumer

Portable/industrial

HEV

Synergies

PHEV

Commuter BEV

Mainstream EV

On-going battery technology development

LIB migration path

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PEMFC migration path Military &

space

APU

CHP

Synergies

Materials handling

Mainstream FCV

On-going fuel cell technology development

Backup power

Fuel cell bus

EV infrastructure pathways

Privategarages&officecarparks

Chargingposts(citycentres)

Chargingposts(residentialareas)

Rapidcharging

Batteryswapping

V2G?

time

NumberofEVs

Smartmetering

Gridreinforcement

Newpowergeneration

AdvancedDSM

Chargingnetworktrajectory

On‐goingelectricitysystemtrajectory

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Transition pathways

Change

Radicaltechnologicalchange(e.g.HEV)

Systemictransition(e.g.EV,HV)

Infra‐structure

Technology

Radicalinfrastructuralchange(e.g.1stgenbiofuels,NGV)

Incrementalinnovation(e.g.advancedICengines)

Continuity ChangeTechnologicalchange

Transition pathways

Change

Radicaltechnologicalchange(e.g.HEV)

Systemictransition(e.g.EV,HV)

Infra‐structure

Technology

Radicalinfrastructuralchange(e.g.1stgenbiofuels,NGV)

Incrementalinnovation(e.g.advancedICengines)

Continuity ChangeTechnologicalchange

Hydrogen

EVs

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Hydrogen revolutions

Automotive futures

•  Notpredictivebutindicativeofwhatmighthappen– Dependsonpolicy/economicenvironment– EVsstillrequirestrongmarket‐pullincentives– Hydrogenpossibleunder‘bigbang’‘ApolloProject’styleapproach

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Evolutionary vs. revolutionary pathways

Evolutionary

•  Technologyspillovers•  Infrastructurespillovers/

synergies

•  Nicheandhybridapplications

•  Incrementaldevelopment/expansion

•  Market‐pullpolicies

Revolutionary

•  EndogenousR&D•  Endogenousinfrastructure

investment

•  Step‐change(‘bigbang’)•  Coordinationmechanisms•  Technology(and

infrastructure)pushpolicies

[R]evolutions

Itisimportantnottobecomebeguiledbythepossibilityofrevolutionarytechnology.Humanitycansolvethecarbonandclimateprobleminthefirsthalfofthiscenturysimplybyscalingupwhatwealreadyknowhowtodo.

PacalaandSocolow(2004)