Tom Brotherton, CALSTART May 21, 2014

Copyright 2014 CALSTART

Medium-Duty AFV Trucks Tom Brotherton, CALSTART

May 21, 2014


Agenda

» CALSTART Background

» A World of Change

» The Options Landscape for Medium-Duty

» Natural Gas (gaseous fuel)

» Biodiesel

» Electric

» Hybrid (including Plug in)

» Conclusions

2


CALSTART is a national, non-profit, clean transportation organization.

Mission: Support and expand clean transportation technology industry Tech and fuel neutral

Goals: • Create high-quality jobs; • Clean the air; • Reduce dependence on foreign oil; and • Reduce global warming emissions


What CALSTART Does

Mission: Support and expand clean transportation industry

Role: Speed development, validation and use of clean transportation systems

Actions: TECH: Develop, manage and validate technology via projects POLICY: Develop policies to support clean transportation development and use USE: Help fleets and others choose and use clean transportation SUPPORT: Provide members access to opportunities, connections, info, trends


CALSTART Members. Making Clean Transportation Happen. Join Today.

PARTIAL LISTING


CALSTART National Offices

CALSTART HQ

Nor Cal Office Colorado Office

Midwest Office

New York Office


Smart Incentives to Move the Market: States-Regions Leading

» Chicago has $11.3M electric truck voucher; $1.4M NG/Elec infrastructure; $1.3M Green Taxi (NG)

» California invested >$60M in voucher program for hybrid and electric trucks; has a parallel program for NGVs

» New York $19M voucher program for hybrid, electric and NG trucks

www.californiahvip.org


Changing World, Increasing Pressures

» GLOBAL WARMING – Dangers more clear; push to reduce GHGs intensifying and pushing fuel economy –

» Passenger cars on path to 54.6 mpg: New fuel economy rules for med & heavy trucks coming » Energy efficiency reduces GHG impact; Fuel switching and blending reduces GHG impact;

Modal split (transit and rail) has long term role

» ENERGY SECURITY: FUEL SUPPLY AND COSTS – Traditional fuel supplies more expensive

» The need for alt and biofuels is increasing » Huge supply of low cost NA natural gas from new production (hydrofracturing) » Regional fuel variation and choice becoming more prevalent

» EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS – New Ozone rules likely for US, could double number of regions in non-attainment

» Fine particulates (nano particles) will be of increasing concern from combustion » Diesel fuel still challenged in dirtiest regions (ports, Southern California)


Latest Climate Change Report: North America Now Feeling Impacts

» Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability

» Key Finding: “Many climate stresses that carry risk – particularly related

to severe heat, heavy precipitation and declining snowpack – will increase in frequency and/or severity in North America in the next decades (very high confidence).”

http://ipcc-wg2.gov/AR5/images/uploads/WGIIAR5-Chap26_FGDall.pdf


President’s Truck Fuel Economy Announcement Feb 2014

• New “Phase 2” truck fuel economy rules under development

• Draft rules March 2015 • Final rules March 2016 • Vocational and long haul


Urban Smog Still a Challenge

» EPA likely to enact tougher standards on ozone (urban smog)

» Drop from 75 ppm to 65-70 ppm based on health impacts

» New rules had been delayed from 2008 when proposed

» Could double US regions in non-attainment

From Dallas Morning News


Efficiency Remains Driver » Light duty adding improved combustion,

turbocharging, multi-speed transmissions, aerodynamic features to cars and trucks – based on new Fed CAFE

» In big rigs, tractor and trailer aerodynamics, low rolling resistance tires are current focus – but next gen includes turbo-compounding, thermal energy recovery, idle reduction

» In vocational trucks, some hybrid and electric options, big interest in natural gas (for price rather than efficiency)

» More stringent truck standard under development


For Fleets: Many Options to Consider

Fuels Technologies

Ethanol: avail now; regional;

process and feedstock

improving; small CO2 gain but

growing

Propane: vehicle models

available; special fueling;

small CO2 gains

Biodiesel: feedstock

concerns; CO2 gains; NOx

issue

Renewable diesel: emerging option

Plug-in hybrid: first LD products

available; first pilot products in

M/HD; business case varies based

on fuel prices; strong policy support

Hydrogen: longer term

option; transit; blending

Electric: LD products expanding,

multiple makers; MD products

emerging for delivery/ urban niche

Fuel Cell: still early demos; limited

testing; some deployments 2015?

Hybrid: models of ALL types

including start-stop expanding in

LD; OEM production in MD/HD and

prices dropping; 20-50%

carbon/fuel reduction

Strategies

Platform/engine

size reduction:

“right-sizing”

platforms

Dispatch

changes, work

changes to

reduce/optimize

vehicle use

Routing

efficiencies:

VMT reduction

Natural gas: low price, high

production/jobs; controversy on

production; limited

infrastructure but expanding;

CO2 benefits; Biomethane

Adv. Engine/Powertrain: cylinder

on demand; improved combustion;;

turbocharging; transmissions

Fleet driver

training/ eco-

driving

Telematics


Biodiesel and Renewable Diesel

» Volumes still low but production and use increasing though incentives lapsed – some impact from feedstock switching to produce ethanol, drought

» Most OEMs accepting increased biodiesel use – fuel spec has now been developed for B1-B20 levels

» Little or no performance drop off from conventional diesel; some operating concerns (such as cold weather)

» Reduced greenhouse gases and particulates from diesel


Ethanol, Biodiesel Shares


Natural Gas » Growth of natural gas continues » 2:1 price differential over diesel remaining relatively

steady » But, Growing concern over fracking, methane

leakage » Fleets have several OEM pickup and van options » ALL medium and heavy-duty OEMs now offer natural

gas (Freightliner, Mack, Volvo, Kenworth, Peterbilt, Navistar)

» Slow down in new engines coming available for trucks

» Growth beginning in line haul applications; Niches remain strong (transit, refuse, ports);

» Infrastructure still barrier, though fuel partners available and corridors are growing


• 5.9 Liter

• 150-230 hp

• Euro 5, EEV

• Introduced in 2000

• 6.7 Liter

• 200-260 hp

• EPA 2013, Euro 6

• Development starting 2012; 2015 launch

• 8.3 Liter

• 250-280 hp

• Euro 3, 4

• Euro 5 by 2014

•Introduced in 2005

• 8.9 Liter

• 250-320 hp

• EPA 2013

• Euro 5, EEV

• CARB Certified in 2007, launched 2008

B Gas Plus ISB6.7 G C Gas Plus ISL G

Cummins-Westport Product Line

• 11.9 Liter

• 320-400 hp

• EPA 2013

• Launched 2013

ISX12 G

All engines use simple, passive, maintenance-free exhaust aftertreatment.


Natural Gas: Compelling Long Term Fuel » New “fracking” tech allows economical access to natural gas

» Current and future production projected to outstrip demand

» US has some of the largest NG reserves in the world

» Fleets seek price certainty & stability


Natural Gas Pump Price Low Price Volatility

A doubling of the price of natural gas increases prices at the pump

only $0.50 per GGE


Fracking – Expect More Controls » Hydraulic fracturing used to extract natural

gas (and oil) has greatly expanded nation’s supply but is under increasing scrutiny

» EPA report due out this year


Methane Leakage – Growing Concern » Science published

study in Feb, EDF studies underway looking at methane leakage in production, use of natural gas

» Methane a very potent greenhouse gas

» If leaks are major, could negate climate benefits


Ultra Low Emitting Engines in Development

» Cummins and Cummins-Westport developing next generation low NOx NG engines – 50% or lower than 2010 EPA

» Cummins building 15 liter development engine; Cummins-Westport improving an 8.9 liter engine

» Demonstration by 2015

» California needs even lower NOx emissions than current EPA engine standards – 80% lower by 2030!


Electric Technology – Many Options

» Medium-duty all-electric trucks available in North America, new players emerging but market slow at moment; Smith Trucks, EVI, Boulder, AMP, Motiv, Orange EV, Trans Tech Bus, Zero truck

» Increased petroleum prices makes an improving business case in right applications

» Criteria and GHG emissions very low; varies depending on fuel source of power plants, each region different

» However: powerplant emissions improving over time everywhere


Electric Trucks – Assessment Underway

» First models out and in service

» Fleets evaluating for performance, business case

» New suppliers entering market


Chicago E-truck and E-bus Incentives

» Six-county metro area

» Incentive tied to battery pack size:

$15,000 + $375 x kWh

Examples: 40 kWh = $30,000

100 kWh = $52,500

300 kWh = $127,500


Web Site: drivecleanchicago.com


Smith Electric Vehicles

Smith Newton

Chicago Incentives:

$37,500 (60 kWh) - $60,000 (120 kWh)


Boulder Electric Vehicle

BEV 500: Delivery van, shuttle bus, flatbed, service body

Chicago Incentive: $37,500


AMP e-100 and Repower Program

» Walk in van EV

» Workhorse chassis

» Can retrofit existing diesel chassis

» Dual motor system

» Chicago Incentive: $52,500


Orange EV

» All electric yard tractor

» Up to 80,000 pound loads, up to 20 hour work days

Chicago Incentives: $45,000 (80 kWh) - $75,000 (160 kWh)


Motiv

Motiv E450 Cutaway Chassis

Chicago Incentives:

$45,000 (80 kWh) - $60,000 (120 kWh)


Motiv ERV

» ERV – Electric Refuse Vehicle, City of Chicago

» Up to 10 possible

» 60 mile range, 70 compaction cycles, 10 battery packs

» Crane Carrier Chassis, Loadmaster 20 cubic yard rear loader body

» Targeting Chicago incentive: $90,000


Trans Tech, Motiv All Electric School Bus

» Trans Tech Bus SST-e; uses Motiv ePCS

» Type A school bus on E450 chassis

» 80 and100 mile range options

» Up to 25 students plus wheelchair lift versions

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Electric Vehicle International

Medium-duty truck, walk-in van

Targeting Chicago incentive ($52,175)


Additional E-Trucks

Zero Truck

Balqon

Vision Industries

Capacity


VIA Motors Close! » Range extended electric trucks and vans in final

certification

» Upfit new after trucks off assembly line

» First units being delivered to some customers

36


Best Uses for E-Truck Business Case

To get sufficient payback, need to drive maximum miles possible (or maximum use of energy) • Dedicated, return-to-base routes with known

daily mileage highly valuable

High Utilization/Daily miles (5-7 days a week) seems important

70-100 miles/day seems like an initial

“sweet spot” for fuel savings payback (sufficient miles to generate fuel savings needed)


Best General Use/ Duty Cycles

1. Fixed route applications - 70% • Stop and go • Localized, dedicated routes • Short haul • Limited range • ‘Spoke and hub’ • Urban Delivery, Refuse, Mail trucks, Transit Buses

2. Facility vehicles – 19% • Airports, seaports, railyards, military bases, parks, resorts • Warehouse support and maintenance • Cargo handling

3. High idle, work site applications – 11% • Aerial devices • PTO • Utility vehicles


Hybrid Technology » Products in market for medium- and heavy-

duty vehicles » First focus is urban work trucks: Class 4-8

refuse, utility, delivery; class 8 drayage, line-haul and construction equipment are in demonstration

» M/HD Market slowed a bit by regulatory issues (OBD), fleet evaluations

» Hybrids multiply benefits when combined with low carbon fuels (biofuels, NG, electricity – plug-in)


Hybrid Sales Growing Again

» New conversion, retrofit options showing attractive price points

» Hino Class 5 Cab-over highly competitive for price and selling well


Crosspoint Kinetics

» Hybrid electric system for Class 3-7 trucks, buses and delivery trucks

» Light systems can bolt to vehicle frame rails

» Uses ultra capacitors instead of batteries

» Captures and releases braking energy quickly

» New and retrofit capable » Tests show up to 30% fuel

economy improvement


XL Hybrids » New and existing vehicle conversion to

hybrid electric on Class 1-3 chassis

» Solid payback in high mileage applications

» Fast conversion process uses QVM

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Lightning Hybrids

» Retrofit or conversion

» Hydraulic hybrid system

» Benefits for reduced brake wear, improved stopping, fuel savings

» Currently Class 2-5


Hydraulic Hybrid – Class 6 » Parker Hannifin, Freightliner Custom Chassis,

Morgan Olson moving into production of a series hydraulic hybrid for delivery cycles

» Completed initial validation testing – have seen 40-50% fuel economy improvement

» Major delivery fleets in first deployments

44


Plug In Work Trucks - Odyne

» Odyne next generation systems now being deployed

» Several models » Plug-in hybrid utility bucket

trucks » PHEV “digger-derrick” version

6/08, a higher power-demand work truck

» PHEV underground compressor truck


Plug-in Energy Storage Bodies

» Altec, Terex, Time, and others with systems

» Stored energy to operate lift, tools at work site

» Separate from and does not change conventional driveline

» Fuel savings and idle reduction benefits


2014 HTUF Annual Meeting Argonne National Lab, Sep 23-24, 2014

Mark Your Calendars! 2-Day Event with Working Groups, Work

Sessions and Ride & Drive www.htuf2014.org


Summary » Climate change concerns and need for

efficiency driving rapid vehicle change – next 10 years will see significant penetration of key technology, fuels

» More options than ever – several still in relatively early stages and assessment

» Not every tech or fuel works best in every application – fleets need to look at how they use their vehicles, match use, infrastructure to options that fit their need


Contact

Tom Brotherton

CALSTART

303-825-7550 x1

[email protected]

Documents

Tom Brotherton, CALSTART May 21, 2014