TOURISM DEMAND ANALYSIS AND FORECASTS A. Project …2 UNWTO. 2016. UNWTO Tourism Highlights, 2016 Edition. Madrid . 3 to the northwest, Ha Noi to the northeast, Ha Nam Province to

Second Greater Mekong Subregion Tourism Infrastructure for Inclusive Growth Project

(RRP REG 49387-003)

TOURISM DEMAND ANALYSIS AND FORECASTS A. Project Overview 1. The proposed project will help transform secondary GMS eastern corridor towns in Viet Nam into economically inclusive, competitive international tourism destinations by improving road and water transport infrastructure, urban environmental services, and capacity to sustainably manage tourism growth. It will boost trade in services and deepen regional cooperation and integration among the GMS and Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). 2. The project impact is sustainable, inclusive, and more balanced tourism development achieved, as envisaged in the ASEAN Tourism Strategic Plan 2016–2025. The outcome is tourism competitiveness of secondary towns in Viet Nam increased. Outputs include: (i) urban-rural access infrastructure and urban environmental services improved, (ii) capacity to implement ASEAN tourism standards strengthened, and (iii) institutional arrangements for tourism destination management and infrastructure O&M strengthened. Detailed descriptions of each subproject and component are in the Project Administration Manual. 3. Target provinces include Hoa Binh, Nghe An, Quang Binh, Quang Tri and Thua Thien Hue, Viet Nam. B. Approach and Assumptions 4. The methodology adopted for the analysis and forecasts follows ADB guidelines for economic analysis of tourism projects and the approach of similar ADB-financed tourism projects.1 The main purpose is to estimate the incremental tourist arrivals and expenditure created by the project, an important step in the project’s economic analysis. 5. The demand analysis includes tourism profiles of the target provinces, baseline conditions (2016), and forecasts for of key indicators in with- and without project scenarios covering 30-years (2017-2046). The 30-year duration is divided into four periods:

(i) PI = 2017-2022 (the two years prior to and first four years of project implementation);

(ii) PII = 2023-2030 (final year of project implementation and first 7-year period post project completion);

(iii) PIII = 2031-2040; and (iv) PIV = 2041-2046.

6. Provincial indicators include international and domestic tourist arrivals, tourism receipts and average tourist expenditure. Assumptions used for projecting provincial indicators are outlined below. Based on these assumptions, province-specific growth rates for international and domestic arrivals, average daily expenditure and average length of stay for with- and without-project scenarios are presented per province in respective sections. 7. General assumptions for projecting provincial tourism indicators:

Without-project scenario:

1 ADB. 2007. ERD Technical Note Series No. 20: Tourism for Pro-Poor and Sustainable Growth: Economic

Analysis of Tourism Projects. Manila

http://www.adb.org/Documents/RRPs/?id=49387-003-3

http://www.adb.org/Documents/RRPs/?id=49387-003-3

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o Assumed annual international arrivals growth is based on United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) forecasts for Southeast Asia2 and historic growth in the respective provinces, as follows:

▪ PI 2017-2022: 2010-2030 UNWTO forecast for Southeast Asia (5.1%) adjusted considering the provincial cumulative annual growth rate (CAGR) 2012-2016. PI annual growth rates range from 3.8% to 6.4%;

▪ PII 2023-2030: 2020-2030 UNWTO forecast (4.3%) adjusted considering PI rate and provincial CAGR 2012-2016. PII annual rates range from 4.3% to 4.4%;

▪ PIII 2031-2040: Annual growth rates range from 2.8% to 2.9%; ▪ PIV 2041-2046: Annual growth rates range from 1.3% to 1.4%;

o Assumed growth in domestic arrivals is projected using the same methodology used for international arrivals (see above);

o Average length of stay for both international and domestic tourists is assumed to remain at the 2016 baseline level throughout the study period;

o Average daily expenditure is conservatively assumed to remain at the 2016 baseline level throughout the study period;

o Number of hotel and guesthouse rooms will increase sufficiently to meet capacity requirements to accommodate the projected tourist arrivals.

With-project scenario: o Assumed annual international arrivals growth is incrementally higher than

the without-project scenario, as follows: ▪ PI 2017-2022: same as without-project growth projection; ▪ PII 2023-2030: 0.30% higher than without-project growth projection; ▪ PIII 2031-2040: 0.25% higher than without-project growth projection; ▪ PIV 2041-2046: 0.10% higher than without-project growth projection;

o Assumed domestic arrival growth is conservatively projected using the same methodology as international arrivals;

o Average length of stay for both international and domestic tourists is assumed to remain at the 2016 baseline level until the end of 2022 and conservatively increase by 0.1 day in 2023 throughout the study period;

o Average daily expenditure is conservatively assumed to remain at the 2016 baseline level throughout the study period;

o Number of hotel and guesthouse rooms will increase sufficiently to meet capacity requirements to accommodate the projected tourist arrivals.

o Projected tourist expenditure is presented in constant 2016 prices for the whole study period. A differential inflation rate specific to tourist expenditures is not expected to occur, meaning any change in future prices is in line with general inflation.

8. Assumptions and forecasts by subproject are presented in respective sections below.

A. Hoa Binh Province

a. Tourism in Hoa Binh 9. Hoa Binh is a mountainous province located in northwest Viet Nam, with a land area of 4,662 km2 and a population of 803,000 (2005). It borders Phu Tho and Son La Provinces

2 UNWTO. 2016. UNWTO Tourism Highlights, 2016 Edition. Madrid

3

to the northwest, Ha Noi to the northeast, Ha Nam Province to the east, Ninh Bình Province to the southeast, and Thanh Hoa Province to the south. The provincial capital is Hoa Binh. 10. The primary tourism attractions include Mai Chau valley, Tien grotto, Tien Phi grotto and the Hoa Binh hydroelectric dam. Dam Da, in Lac Thuy District in the province’s southeast, is becoming increasingly popular. It is home to numerous pagodas, temples and caves, such as Trinh Temple, Mau Temple and Tien Pagoda. 11. Hoa Binh Province welcomed just over 644,000 tourists in 2016 (Table 1), out of which approximately 90,000 (around 14%) were international tourists. Annual arrivals grew rapidly during 2012-2015, but there was a 31% drop in 2016. However, average length of stay and average daily expenditure continued to grow in 2016 so the reduction in tourism receipts was only 10%. 12. To reverse the recent negative trend in arrival numbers, strategic investment in the destination is needed. The project’s proposed access improvements to the Tien Pagoda and Cave Area in Dam Da will boost visitor arrivals and facilitate more private investment in the destinations. Better rural access roads will also facilitate access to markets and services for residents.

Table 1: Hoa Binh Province Baseline Conditions 2012-2016

Indicator 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Growth

2016/2015 (%)

CAGR 2012-2016

(%)

Tourist arrivals - Total 446,001 556,352 682,634 937,810 644,093 -31.3 9.6

International tourists 46,429 87,462 71,478 118,997 90,460 -24.0 18.1

Domestic tourists 399,572 468,890 611,156 818,813 553,633 -32.4 8.5

Tourism receipts - Total ($mln) 11.2 19.5 20.4 36.4 32.6 -10.3 30.6

International tourists ($mln) 6.9 12.1 12.0 22.1 19.9 -9.7 30.6

Domestic tourists ($mln) 4.4 7.4 8.4 14.3 12.7 -11.3 30.5

Length of Stay

International tourists 1.4 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.8 5.9 6.5

Domestic tourists 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.8 28.6 13.1

Average daily expenditure

International tourists ($) 38.3 44.2 35.1 38.5 44.7 15.9 3.9

Domestic tourists ($) 9.9 13.2 10.6 12.5 12.7 2.1 6.4

Average receipts per tourist



CAGR = compound annual growth rate, mln = million. Source: Hoa Binh Department of Tourism

b. Tourism Forecasts for Hoa Binh 13. The assumptions used are shown in Table 2. As shown in Table 3, without-project forecasts suggest that Hoa Binh Province will receive 1,055,447 tourists (155,585 international), generating just over $33 million in receipts by 2026, and 1,800,508 tourists (267,548 international) that generate nearly $57 million in 2046. The with-project growth scenario places total arrivals at 1,067,636 (157,381 international) in 2026, generating nearly $35 million in receipts, and at 1,898,804 million in 2046 (282,149 international), generating $63 million.

c. Forecasts for Output 1 infrastructure subprojects in Hoa Binh

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14. Baseline conditions and projections for each infrastructure subproject is presented in Table 4. The underlying assumptions and forecasts are presented below.

- HB1 Tien Pagoda Access and Environmental Improvements Baseline conditions:

▪ International and domestic arrivals as reported by Department of Tourism (DOT);

▪ Receipts from ticket sales as reported by DOT; ▪ Parking fees will be introduced once the new parking area is

completed – baseline: nil; ▪ Market stall rental fees will be introduced once the new market

stalls are completed – baseline: nil. Without-project scenario:

▪ International and domestic arrivals growth assumed to be the same as provincial growth assumptions;

▪ Receipts from ticket sales will grow at the same rate as arrivals; ▪ Parking fees – not applicable; ▪ Market stall rental fees – not applicable.

With-project scenario: ▪ International and domestic arrivals growth assumed to be the

same rate as provincial growth assumptions, except for 2023-2030 during which 0.3% incremental growth is assumed, and for 2031-2040 during which 0.2% incremental growth is assumed;

▪ Receipts from ticket sales will grow at the same rate as arrivals; ▪ Receipts from parking fees is assumed at $0.25 per visitor from

2023 onwards; ▪ Receipts from market stalls rental (96 stalls, 25m2 each) is

assumed at $144,000 per year from 2023 onwards.

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Table 2: Hoa Binh Province Assumptions for Tourism Forecasts

Profile Without Project With Project

2018-2023 2024-2030 2031-2040 2041-2046 2018-2023 2024-2030 2031-2040 2041-2046

International arrivals growth rate 6.4% 4.4% 2.9% 1.4% 6.4% 4.7% 3.2% 1.5%

International length of stay (days) 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9

International daily spending ($) 44.7 44.7 44.7 44.7 44.7 44.7 44.7 44.7

Domestic arrivals growth rate 5.4% 4.4% 2.9% 1.4% 5.4% 4.7% 3.1% 1.5%

Domestic length of stay (days) 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9

Domestic daily spending ($) 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7

Source: Consultant’s estimates.

Table 3: Hoa Binh Province Tourism Forecasts 2016-2046

Indicator Baseline Without Project With Project Incremental With-Project benefits

2016 2026 2036 2046 2026 2036 2046 2026 2036 2046

Tourist arrivals - Total 644,093 1,055,447 1,482,960 1,800,508 1,067,636 1,539,672 1,898,804 12,188 1.2% 56,711 3.8% 98,296 5.5%

International tourists 90,460 155,585 219,475 267,548 157,381 227,865 282,149 1,796 1.2% 8,390 3.8% 14,600 5.5%

Domestic tourists 553,633 899,863 1,263,485 1,532,960 910,255 1,311,806 1,616,656 10,392 1.2% 48,322 3.8% 83,696 5.5%

Tourism receipts - Total ($mln) 19.9 33.1 46.6 56.6 35.3 51.0 63.0 2.2 6.8% 4.5 9.6% 6.4 11.3%

International tourists ($mln) 7.3 12.5 17.6 21.5 13.4 19.3 23.9 0.8 6.8% 1.7 9.6% 2.4 11.3%

Domestic tourists ($mln) 12.7 20.6 28.9 35.1 22.0 31.7 39.1 1.4 6.8% 2.8 9.6% 4.0 11.3%

Average receipts per tourist International tourists ($) 80.4 80.4 80.4 80.4 84.8 84.8 84.8 4.5 5.6% 4.5 5.6% 4.5 5.6%

Domestic tourists ($) 22.9 22.9 22.9 22.9 24.2 24.2 24.2 1.3 5.6% 1.3 5.6% 1.3 5.6%


Table 4: Hoa Binh Province Tourism Forecasts, by Subproject, 2016-2046


2016 2026 2036 2046 2026 2036 2046 2026 2036 2046

HB1 Tien Pagoda Access and Environmental Improvements Tien Pagoda Visitor arrivals 600,000 975,227 1,369,302 1,661,346 1,018,710 1,502,522 1,866,283 43,484 4.5% 133,220 9.7% 204,937 12.3%

International 20,861 30,908 38,569 20,861 30,908 38,569 Domestic 600,000 975,227 1,369,302 1,661,346 997,849 1,471,614 1,827,714 22,623 2.3% 102,312 7.5% 166,368 10.0%

Tourism receipts ($) 159,091 258,583 363,073 440,508 668,790 918,027 1,105,418 410,207 158.6% 554,954 152.8% 664,910 150.9%

Entrance ticket sales ($) 159,091 258,583 363,073 440,508 270,113 398,396 494,848 11,530 4.5% 35,324 9.7% 54,339 12.3%

Parking fees ($) 254,678 375,631 466,571 254,678 375,631 466,571 Market stall rental fees ($) 144,000 144,000 144,000 144,000 144,000 144,000


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B. Nghe An Province

a. Tourism in Nghe An 15. Nghe An province is in North Central Viet Nam. It is the country’s largest province by area (16,490 km2) with a population of over 3 million (2009). Nghe An shares a 429 km border with Lao PDR and has an 82 km coastline. The provincial capital is Vinh, an economic and cultural center of the north central region situated in the East–West Economic Corridor. Nghe An Province is the birthplace of President Ho Chi Minh. 16. Nghe An’s primary tourist attractions include: (i) Cua Lo Beach, located 18km from Vinh, a 10km beach popular for its white sand and blue water; and (ii) Phu Mat National Park (94,804 ha.), one of Viet Nam’s six protected areas that have been recognized as World Biosphere Reserves. 17. Nghe An Province welcomed nearly 3.3 million tourists in 2016, out of which approximately only 73,000 (just over 2%) were international tourists. Overall, growth during 2012-2015 was driven by the domestic market. However, while international arrivals continued to steadily increase from a lower base, domestic arrivals dropped 12.4% in 2016. This may be attributed to the “Formosa disaster” of 2016, whereby a steel plant in neighboring Ha Tinh province released pollutants into the sea. Consequently, tourism receipts dropped 31% in 2016 to $193 million.

Table 5: Nghe An Province Baseline Conditions 2012-2016


2016/2015 (%)

CAGR 2012-2016

(%)

Tourist arrivals – Total 3,073,102 3,253,825 3,146,870 3,740,312 3,292,860 -12.0 1.7

International tourists 97,725 60,550 64,450 65,000 72,860 12.1 -7.1

Domestic tourists 2,975,377 3,193,275 3,082,420 3,675,312 3,220,000 -12.4 2.0


International tourists ($mln) 5.1 3.3 4.7 5.6 6.9 22.8 7.9


Length of Stay


Domestic tourists 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 -1.2 1.1



Domestic tourists ($) 29.6 31.9 38.4 46.0 36.2 -21.3 5.2




CAGR = compound annual growth rate, mln = million. Source: Nghe An Department of Tourism 18. While domestic arrivals are likely to rebound following cleanup efforts, strategic investment is needed to protect the shoreline and make it more attractive for visitors, as well as open new areas for investment. The project’s proposed access and environmental improvements at Cu Lo Beach, Vinh’s main tourist attraction, and improved access to the Ru Gam Pagoda, along with better destination management, will increase the destination’s appeal to both the international and domestic markets and boost corresponding arrival numbers and tourist expenditure.

b. Tourism Forecasts for Nghe An

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19. The assumptions used are in Table 6. As shown in Table 7, without-project forecasts suggest that Nghe An Province will receive 5,144,734 tourists (107,984 international) and generate just under $302 million in receipts in 2026; and 8,707,396 tourists (181,187 international), generating just under $511 million in 2046. The with-project growth scenario places total arrivals at 5,204,169 (109,232 international) in 2026, generating just under $325 million in receipts; and at 9,182,954 million (191,087 international), generating just under $573 million in 2046.

c. Forecasts for Output 1 infrastructure subprojects in Nghe An Province 20. Baseline conditions and projections for each infrastructure subproject is presented in Table 8. The underlying assumptions and forecasts are presented below.

NA1 Cua Lo Beachfront Access Improvements Baseline conditions:

▪ International and domestic arrivals as reported by Department of Tourism (DOT);

▪ Receipts as reported by DOT. Without-project scenario:

▪ International and domestic arrivals growth rate is the same as provincial growth rate assumptions;

▪ Receipts grow at the same rate as arrivals. With-project scenario:

▪ The baseline for international day-trippers is nil. It is assumed that from 2023, 10% of the provincial international day-trippers will include Cua Lo beach in their visit;

▪ International and domestic arrivals growth rate is the same as provincial growth rate, except for 2023-2030 when 0.10% incremental growth is assumed, and 2031-2040, during which 0.08% incremental growth is assumed;

▪ Receipts grow at the same rate as arrivals. NA2 Ru Gam Pagoda Access Improvements

Baseline conditions: ▪ International and domestic arrivals as reported by Department of

Tourism (DOT); ▪ Receipts estimated at $5 per domestic visitor (primarily donations,

as reported by DOT). Without-project scenario:

▪ International and domestic arrivals growth rate is the same as provincial growth rate assumptions;

▪ Receipts estimated per baseline. With-project scenario:

▪ International and domestic arrivals growth rate is the same as provincial growth until 2023. In 2023, international arrivals increase by 100% following the completion of the road. Arrivals will show 1.0% incremental growth during 2023-2030, and 0.8% incremental growth during 2031-2040;

▪ Receipts follow baseline estimate until 2023, when it is assumed domestic average daily spending increases to $8 per person because of additional activity at the pagoda.

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Table 6: Nghe An Province Assumptions for Tourism Forecasts


2018-2023 2024-2030 2031-2040 2041-2046 2018-2023 2024-2030 2031-2040 2041-2046








Table 7: Nghe An Province Tourism Forecasts 2016-2046


2016 2026 2036 2046 2026 2036 2046 2026 2036 2046

Tourist arrivals - Total 3,292,860 5,144,734 7,200,329 8,707,396 5,204,169 7,475,793 9,182,954 59,435 1.2% 275,465 3.8% 475,558 5.5%


Domestic tourists 3,220,000 5,036,750 7,049,847 8,526,209 5,094,937 7,319,552 8,991,867 58,187 1.2% 269,705 3.8% 465,658 5.5%







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Table 8: Nghe An Province Tourism Forecasts, by Subproject, 2016-2046


2016 2026 2036 2046 2026 2036 2046 2026 2036 2046

NA1 Cua Lo Beachfront Access Improvements Cua Lo Beach Tourist arrivals (overnight) 893,521 1,397,281 1,955,708 2,365,218 1,418,835 2,055,653 2,533,109 21,554 1.5% 99,945 5.1% 167,891 7.1%

International 4,521 6,700 9,337 11,243 6,804 9,815 12,041 103 1.5% 477 5.1% 798 7.1%

Domestic 889,000 1,390,581 1,946,371 2,353,975 1,412,031 2,045,838 2,521,068 21,450 1.5% 99,468 5.1% 167,093 7.1%

Visitor arrivals (day trippers) 1,652,000 2,584,071 3,616,878 4,374,316 2,640,215 3,825,205 4,713,636 56,144 2.2% 208,327 5.8% 339,320 7.8%

International 0 0 0 0 16,283 23,489 28,817 16,283 23,489 28,817 Domestic 1,652,000 2,584,071 3,616,878 4,374,316 2,623,932 3,801,716 4,684,819 39,861 1.5% 184,838 5.1% 310,503 7.1%

Tourism receipts ($mln) 64.5 101.0 141.3 170.9 102.9 149.1 183.8 2.0 2.0% 7.8 5.5% 12.9 7.5%

NA2 Ru Gam Pagoda Access Improvements Ru Gam Pagoda Visitor arrivals 50,920 79,574 111,370 134,682 85,048 132,928 168,403 5,474 6.9% 21,559 19.4% 33,721 25.0%

International 920 1,364 1,900 2,288 2,866 4,460 5,626 1,502 110.2% 2,560 134.7% 3,338 145.9%

Domestic 50,000 78,210 109,470 132,395 82,182 128,468 162,777 3,972 5.1% 18,999 17.4% 30,382 22.9%

Tourism receipts ($) 250,000 391,052 547,348 661,973 657,459 1,027,747 1,302,215 266,407 68.1% 480,399 87.8% 640,242 96.7%


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C. Quang Binh Province

a. Tourism in Quang Binh 21. Quang Binh Province is in Viet Nam’s North Central region. With 8,066 km2 it is the region’s second largest province and has a population of around 900,000 (2009). It faces the East Sea, sharing borders with Ha Tinh Province to the north, Quang Trị province to the south, and Lao PDR to the west. 22. The provincial capital Dong Hoi has a 19th-century citadel, long sandy Nhat Le beach and the Nhat Le River, Quan Hau War Memorial, Long Dai Memorial Temple, and King Phong Pagoda-Thanh Dinh Mountain. The city is also staging point for World Heritage-listed Phong Nha-Ke Bang National Park. 23. Quang Binh welcomed just over 2 million tourists in 2016, out of which approximately only 38,700 (just under 2%) were international tourists. Arrivals grew quickly during 2012-2015 but dropped about 28% in 2016 because of the Fomosa disaster. Consequently, tourism receipts dropped nearly 32% in 2016 to $112 million.

Table 9: Quang Binh Province Baseline Conditions 2012-2016


2016/2015 (%)

CAGR 2012-2016

(%)

Tourist arrivals – Total 1,046,661 1,375,861 2,755,072 2,825,961 2,029,677 -28.2 18.0

International tourists 29,654 34,222 43,290 46,424 38,701 -16.6 6.9

Domestic tourists 1,017,007 1,341,639 2,711,782 2,779,537 1,990,976 -28.4 18.3


International tourists ($mln) 1.7 2.0 2.3 2.6 2.1 -16.6 5.5


Length of Stay

International tourists 1.16 1.16 1.08 1.10 1.10 0.0 -1.3

Domestic tourists 1.16 1.16 1.08 1.10 1.10 0.0 -1.3





International tourists ($) 58.0 58.0 54.0 55.0 55.0 0.0 -1.3

Domestic tourists ($) 58.0 58.0 54.0 55.0 55.0 0.0 -1.3

CAGR = compound annual growth rate, mln = million. Source: Quang Binh Department of Tourism 24. The project’s proposed Nhat Le River tour circuit, involving construction of new piers and access improvements to river-side tourist attractions, Dong Hoi river embankment improvements and beautification will increase the destination’s appeal to international and domestic markets, and provide additional green space and flood protection for residents.

b. Tourism Forecasts for Quang Binh 25. The assumptions used are in Table 10. As shown in Table 11, without-project forecasts suggest that Quang Binh will receive 3,489,466 tourists (62,310 international) and generate just under $135 million in receipts in 2026; and 6,000,234 tourists (105,981 international), generating just under $234 million in 2046. The with-project scenario places total arrivals at 3,529,747 (63,029 international) in 2026, generating nearly $150 million in receipts; and at 6,327,675 million (111,768 international) in 2046, generating just under $268 million.

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c. Forecasts for Output 1 infrastructure subprojects in Quang Binh

26. Baseline conditions and projections for each infrastructure subproject is presented in Table 12. The underlying assumptions and forecasts are presented below.

QB1 Nat Le-Long Dai River and Road Access Improvements Dong Hoi City

Baseline conditions:

• International and domestic arrivals as reported by Department of Culture, Sports and Tourism (DSCT);

• Receipts as reported by DSCT. Without-project scenario:

• International and domestic arrivals growth rate is the same as provincial growth rate;

• Receipts grow at the same rate as total arrivals. With-project scenario:

• International and domestic arrivals growth rate is the same as provincial growth rate;

• Receipts grow at the same rate as arrivals until 2023 with 10% incremental annual growth from 2023 onwards following completion of the river embankment improvements and beautification. Thereafter, incremental annual growth in receipts will continue at the same rate as arrivals.

Nhat Le River Tour Baseline conditions :

• The Nhat Le River tour does not exist – baseline: nil; Without-project scenario:

• Not applicable; With project scenario:

• From 2023 onwards, 5% of Dong Hoi’s international arrivals and 2% of Dong Hoi domestic arrivals will take the Nhat Le River tour;

• Tour price is $20. Dong Hoi City Tourist Pier (Pier 1)


• Charges for mobile kiosks/carts will be introduced once the new site improvements are completed – baseline: nil;

• Parking fees will be introduced once the new parking area is completed – baseline: nil;

• Berthing fees will be introduced once the new tourist pier is completed and the tour product operational – baseline: nil;


• Receipts from mobile kiosks/carts fees: not applicable;

• Receipts from parking fees: not applicable;

• Receipts from berthing fees: not applicable. With-project scenario:

• Receipts from mobile kiosks/carts fees (50 kiosks/carts) is are $12,000 per year from 2023 onwards;

• Receipts from parking fees are $0.25 per visitor from 2023 onwards, assuming 70% of the Nhat Le River Tour customers and 1% of all visitors to Dong Hoi City will use the parking facility;

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• Receipts from berthing fees are assumed $5 per Nhat Le River Tour from 2023 onwards.

Quang Hau War memorial (Pier 2) Baseline conditions:

• Very few arrivals;

• Rental fees for site facilities will be introduced once the site improvements are completed – baseline: nil;

• Parking fees will be introduced once the new parking area is completed – baseline: nil;

• Berthing fees will be introduced once the new tourist pier is completed and the tour product operational – baseline: nil.


• Arrivals: not applicable:

• Receipts from rental fees for site facilities: not applicable;

• Receipts from parking fees: not applicable;

• Receipts from berthing fees: not applicable. With-project scenario:

• 10% of provincial arrivals visit the site and increase at the same rate as provincial arrival forecasts;

• Receipts from site facilities rental fees (estimated at 50 shops, 50m2 each and 6 stalls, 12m2 each) are $98,640 per year from 2023 onwards;

• Receipts from parking fees are assumed at $0.25 per visitor from 2023 onwards, assuming50% of domestic visitors arrive by car;

• Receipts from berthing fees are assumed $2 per Nhat Le River Tour from 2023 onwards.

Long Dai Memorial Temple (Pier 3) Baseline conditions:

• International and domestic arrivals as reported by DOT;

• Receipts as reported by DOT. Without-project scenario:

• International and domestic arrivals growth rate is the same as provincial growth assumptions;

• Receipts grow at the same rate as arrivals. With-project scenario:


• Receipts grow at the same rate as arrivals until 2023, with 30% incremental annual growth in 2023. Thereafter, incremental annual growth in receipts will continue at the same rate as arrivals.

Than Dinh Mountain Pagoda (Pier 4) Baseline conditions:


• Receipts from donations as reported by DOT; -Pagoda entrance area

o Parking fees will be introduced once the new parking areas are completed – baseline: nil;

o Charges for mobile kiosks/carts will be introduced once the new site improvements are completed – baseline: nil.

- Pagoda pier and associated facilities:

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o Berthing fees will be introduced once the new tourist pier is completed and the tour is operational – baseline: nil;

o Rental fees for site facilities will be introduced once improvements are completed – baseline: nil.


• International and domestic arrivals growth rate is the same as provincial growth rate assumptions;

• Receipts from donations grow at same rate as arrivals.

• Pagoda entrance area: o Parking fees: not applicable; o Charges for mobile kiosks/carts: not applicable

• Pagoda pier and associated facilities: o Berthing fees: not applicable; o Rental fees for site facilities: not applicable.

With-project scenario:


• Receipts from donations grow at the same rate as arrivals until 2023, with 30% incremental annual growth in 2023. Thereafter, incremental annual growth in receipts will continue at the same rate as arrivals.

• Pagoda entrance area: o Receipts from parking fees are assumed at $0.25

per visitor from 2023 onwards, assuming 80% of all visitors will arrive by car;

o Receipts from mobile kiosks/carts charges (50 kiosks/carts) are $12,000 per year from 2023 onwards.

• Pagoda pier and associated facilities: o Receipts from berthing fees are assumed $2 per

Nhat Le River Tour from 2023 onwards; o Receipts from site facilities rental fees (estimated at

150m2) are $18,000 per year from 2023 onwards.

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Table 10: Quang Binh Province Assumptions for Tourism Forecasts


2018-2023 2024-2030 2031-2040 2041-2046 2018-2023 2024-2030 2031-2040 2041-2046








Table 11: Quang Binh Province Tourism Forecasts 2016-2046


2016 2026 2036 2046 2026 2036 2046 2026 2036 2046


International tourists 38,701 62,310 87,420 105,981 63,029 90,764 111,768 720 1.2% 3,344 3.8% 5,787 5.5%








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Table 12: Quang Binh Province Tourism Forecasts, by Subproject, 2016-2046


2016 2026 2036 2046 2026 2036 2046 2026 2036 2046

QB1 Nat Le-Long Dai River and Road Access Improvements Dong Hoi City Visitor arrivals 816,637 1,404,295 1,980,945 2,414,812 1,420,506 2,056,670 2,546,591 16,211 1.2% 75,725 3.8% 131,779 5.5%

International 12,743 20,517 28,785 34,896 20,754 29,886 36,802 237 1.2% 1,101 3.8% 1,905 5.5%

Domestic 803,894 1,383,779 1,952,160 2,379,915 1,399,752 2,026,784 2,509,789 15,974 1.2% 74,624 3.8% 129,874 5.5%


Nhat Le River Tour Boat-trips 726 1,051 1,301 726 1,051 1,301 Passenger-trips 29,033 42,030 52,036 29,033 42,030 52,036 Fare receipts ($) 580,655 840,599 1,040,717 580,655 840,599 1,040,717 Dong Hoi City Tourist Pier (Pier 1) Total receipts ($) 24,261 29,751 33,977 24,261 29,751 33,977

Charges for mobile kiosk/carts ($) 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 Parking fees ($) 8,632 12,497 15,473 8,632 12,497 15,473 Berthing fees ($) 3,629 5,254 6,504 3,629 5,254 6,504

Quang Hau War memorial (Pier 2) Visitor arrivals 142,051 205,667 254,659 142,051 205,667 254,659

International 2,075 2,989 3,680 2,075 2,989 3,680 Domestic 139,975 202,678 250,979 139,975 202,678 250,979

Total receipts ($) 117,589 126,076 132,614 117,589 126,076 132,614 Rental fees site facilities ($) 98,640 98,640 98,640 98,640 98,640 98,640 Parking fees ($) 17,497 25,335 31,372 17,497 25,335 31,372 Berthing fees ($) 1,452 2,101 2,602 1,452 2,101 2,602

Long Dai Memorial Temple (Pier 3) Visitor arrivals 14,350 24,562 34,635 42,205 24,846 35,959 44,509 284 1.2% 1,324 3.8% 2,303 5.5%

International 1,250 2,013 2,824 3,423 2,036 2,932 3,610 23 1.2% 108 3.8% 187 5.5%

Domestic 13,100 22,550 31,812 38,782 22,810 33,028 40,899 260 1.2% 1,216 3.8% 2,116 5.5%

Receipts ($) 34,091 58,352 82,282 100,266 76,733 111,056 137,460 18,381 31.5% 28,774 35.0% 37,193 37.1%

Than Dinh Mountain Pagoda (Pier 4) Visitor arrivals 46,750 80,306 113,272 138,070 81,233 117,603 145,604 927 1.2% 4,330 3.8% 7,535 5.5%

International 1,500 2,415 3,388 4,108 2,443 3,518 4,332 28 1.2% 130 3.8% 224 5.5%

Domestic 45,250 77,891 109,884 133,962 78,790 114,085 141,272 899 1.2% 4,200 3.8% 7,310 5.5%

Receipts from donations ($) 263,636 452,867 638,775 778,613 595,524 862,152 1,067,434 142,656 31.5% 223,377 35.0% 288,821 37.1%

Receipts pagoda entrance area ($) 28,247 35,521 41,121 28,247 35,521 41,121

16


2016 2026 2036 2046 2026 2036 2046 2026 2036 2046

Parking fees ($) 16,247 23,521 29,121 16,247 23,521 29,121 Charges for mobile kiosk/carts ($) 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000

Receipts pier and facilities ($) 19,452 20,101 20,602 19,452 20,101 20,602 Rental fees site facilities ($) 18,000 18,000 18,000 18,000 18,000 18,000 Berthing fees ($) 1,452 2,101 2,602 1,452 2,101 2,602


17

D. Quang Tri Province

a. Tourism in Quang Tri 27. Quang Tri Province is in the North Central Viet Nam with an area of 4,746 km2 and population of around 650,000 (2009). It faces the East Sea, bordering Quang Binh Province to the north, Thu Thien-Hue Province to the south, and Lao PDR to the west. Apart from the coastal plain, it is mainly hilly and mountainous. The provincial capital Dong Ha is situated at the crossroads of National Highway 1A and Route 9, which is part of the East–West Economic Corridor. 28. The primary tourist attractions include Cua Viet and Cua Tung beaches, Dong Ha’s historic citadel, Vinh Moc tunnels, the former demilitarized zone, and former Khe Sanh Combat Base. Con Co Island, 30 km off the coast of Dong Ha, is an emerging tourist destination offering marine tourism opportunities, primary forest and historic sites. 29. Quang Tri Province welcomed 560,000 tourists in 2016, out of which 90,000 (16%) were international tourists. After steady annual growth during 2012-2015 there was a 30% drop in 2016 because of the Formosa disaster. Tourism receipts also dropped around 30% to $27.4 million in 2016.

Table 13: Quang Tri Province Baseline Conditions 2012-2016


2016/2015 (%)

CAGR 2012-2016

(%)

Tourist arrivals – Total 691,000 724,000 760,000 800,000 560,000 -30.0 -5.1

International tourists 121,000 110,000 110,000 115,000 90,000 -21.7 -7.1

Domestic tourists 570,000 614,000 650,000 685,000 470,000 -31.4 -4.7


International tourists ($mln) 8.6 8.5 9.4 10.1 7.9 -21.7 -2.2


Length of Stay


Domestic tourists 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.3 0.0 1.6







CAGR = compound annual growth rate, mln = million. Source: Quang Tri Department of Culture, Sports and Tourism 30. The project’s proposed access and environmental improvements along the long stretch of beach between Cua Viet and Cua Tung, Dong Ha’s main tourist attraction, and tourist port construction to open access to the new tourist destination Con Co Island will increase the destination’s appeal to both the international and domestic markets and boost arrival numbers and tourists’ length of stay.

b. Tourism Forecasts for Quang Tri 31. The assumptions used are in Table 14, As shown in Table 15, without-project forecasts suggest that Quang Tri will receive 839,832 tourists (133,343 international) and generate 41 million in receipts in 2026; and 1,411,884 tourists (223,725 international), generating just under $69 million in 2046. The with-project scenario places total arrivals at

18

849,537 (134,884 international) in 2026, generating over $44 million in receipts, and at 1,489,021 million (235,949 international) in 2046, generating just under $78 million.

c. Forecasts for Output 1 infrastructure subprojects in Quang Tri 32. Baseline conditions and projections for each infrastructure subproject is presented in Table 16. The underlying assumptions and forecasts are presented below.

QT1 Cua Viet-Cua Tung Beach Access and Environmental Improvements Baseline conditions:

▪ International and domestic arrivals at Cua Viet, Gio Hai and Cua Tung beaches as reported by DOT;

▪ Tourism receipts at Cua Viet, Gio Hai and Cua Tung beaches as reported by DOT;

▪ Receipts at Gio Hai community beach from local restaurant’s land lease as reported by DOT (15mln dong per plot per year);

▪ Receipts at Cua Tung beach from restaurant land lease assumed as same rate per unit as at Gio Hai beach.

Without-project scenario: ▪ International and domestic arrivals growth at Cua Viet, Gio Hai and

Cua Tung beaches assumed to be the same as provincial growth rate;

▪ Tourism receipts at Cua Viet, Gio Hai and Cua Tung beaches grow at the same rate as arrivals;

▪ Receipts from land lease at Gio Hai and Cua Viet beaches assumed constant until end of study period.

With-project scenario: ▪ International and domestic arrivals growth at Cua Viet, Gio Hai and

Cua Tung beaches is the same rate as provincial growth except for 2023-2030, during which 0.3% incremental growth is assumed, and during 2031-2040, during which 0.2% incremental growth is assumed;

▪ Tourism receipts at Cua Viet, Gio Hai and Cua Tung beaches grow at the same rate as arrivals until 2023, with 20% incremental annual growth in 2023. Thereafter, incremental annual growth in receipts will continue at the same rate as arrivals. Gio Hai community beach:

• It is assumed that the land lease will be abolished and replaced by a $900 per year rental fee for each of the 20 newly constructed restaurants;

Cua Tung beach:

• It is assumed that the land lease will be abolished and replaced by a $1,800 per year rental fee for each of the 27 newly constructed restaurants;

QT2 Cua Viet Port Improvement Con Co Island


• Con Co Island was opened for tourism towards the end of 2016, and baseline for tourist arrivals and receipts is nil.


• It is assumed that without port improvements, 0.5% of international and domestic tourists in Quang Tri Province will visit Con Co Island;

19

• Assumed length of stay for international tourists is 1.5 days and for domestic tourists it is 1.2 days;

• Receipts are calculated using forecasted Con Co arrivals * average length of stay * forecasted provincial average daily expenditure.


• Once the port is completed and operational, from 2023 onwards, 5% of international and 3% of domestic tourists in Quang Tri Province will visit Con Co Island;

• International and domestic arrivals growth rate is the same as provincial growth rate until 2023, with 5% incremental growth during 2023-2030 and 4% incremental growth during 2031-2040;

• Assumed average length of stay for international tourists is 1.5 days and domestic tourists it is 1.2 days;

• Receipts are calculated using forecasted Con Co arrivals * average length of stay * provincial average daily expenditure.

Ferry service Cua Viet-Con Co Island Baseline conditions:

• The Cua Viet-Con Co Island ferry started operation with one vessel in March 2017, without a proper port facility on either end. Baseline tourist arrivals and receipts is nil.


• Passenger-trips are the same as international and domestic tourist arrivals on Con Co Island, plus 1,000 non-tourist passengers per year;

• Receipts are calculated assuming a $20 roundtrip fare; With-project scenario:

• Passenger-trips are the same as forecasted international and domestic tourist arrivals on Con Co Island plus 1,000 non-tourist passengers a year;

• Receipts are calculated assuming a $20 roundtrip fare. Cua Viet port operation


• Passenger service charge as reported by DOT (10,000 dong ($0.45)/person);

• Pier facilities rental fee will be introduced once the pot facilities are completed – baseline: nil;

• Parking fees will be introduced once the new parking area is completed – baseline: nil.


• Passenger service charge is assumed to remain at baseline level until end of study period;

• Rental fee of pier facilities: not applicable;

• Parking fees: not applicable. With-project scenario:

• Passenger service charge is assumed to remain at baseline level until 2023 when the new port will become operational and the service charge raised to 20,000 dong ($0.91);

• Receipts from pier facilities rental fees (estimated at 625m2) are assumed $75,000 per year from 2023 onwards;

20

• Receipts from parking fees are assumed $0.50 per visitor from 2023 onwards, assuming 10% of international and 60% of domestic visitors to Con Co Island will use the parking facility for an average of 1.5 and 1.2 days respectively (estimated length of stay on Con Co Island).

21

Table 14: Quang Tri Province Assumptions for Tourism Forecasts


2018-2023 2024-2030 2031-2040 2041-2046 2018-2023 2024-2030 2031-2040 2041-2046








Table 15: Quang Tri Province Tourism Forecasts 2016-2046


2016 2026 2036 2046 2026 2036 2046 2026 2036 2046

Tourist arrivals - Total 560,000 839,832 1,171,475 1,411,884 849,537 1,216,308 1,489,021 9,705 1.2% 44,833 3.8% 77,137 5.5%


Domestic tourists 470,000 706,489 985,659 1,188,159 714,653 1,023,380 1,253,072 8,164 1.2% 37,721 3.8% 64,913 5.5%







22

Table 16: Quang Tri Province Tourism Forecasts, by Subproject, 2016-2046


2016 2026 2036 2046 2026 2036 2046 2026 2036 2046

QT1 Cua Viet-Cua Tung Beach Access and Environmental Improvements Cua Viet Beach Visitor arrivals 228,000 342,118 477,239 575,203 350,059 512,921 632,843 7,941 2.3% 35,682 7.5% 57,640 10.0%

International 28,000 41,485 57,809 69,603 42,448 62,132 76,579 963 2.3% 4,323 7.5% 6,976 10.0%

Domestic 200,000 300,633 419,429 505,600 307,612 450,789 556,264 6,978 2.3% 31,360 7.5% 50,665 10.0%


Gio Hai beach (community beach) Visitor arrivals 107,000 160,688 224,167 270,201 164,418 240,928 297,277 3,730 2.3% 16,761 7.5% 27,076 10.0%

International 7,000 10,371 14,452 17,401 10,612 15,533 19,145 241 2.3% 1,081 7.5% 1,744 10.0%

Domestic 100,000 150,317 209,715 252,800 153,806 225,395 278,132 3,489 2.3% 15,680 7.5% 25,332 10.0%


Rental charge receipts ($) 11,591 11,591 11,591 11,591 18,000 18,000 18,000 6,409 55.3% 6,409 55.3% 6,409 55.3%

Cua Tung Beach Visitor arrivals 113,000 169,534 236,490 285,031 173,470 254,172 313,594 3,935 2.3% 17,682 7.5% 28,563 10.0%

International 15,000 22,224 30,969 37,288 22,740 33,285 41,024 516 2.3% 2,316 7.5% 3,737 10.0%

Domestic 98,000 147,310 205,520 247,744 150,730 220,887 272,570 3,419 2.3% 15,366 7.5% 24,826 10.0%


Rental charge receipts ($) 10,227 10,227 10,227 10,227 48,600 48,600 48,600 38,373 375.2% 38,373 375.2% 38,373 375.2%

QT2 Con Co Island Access Improvements Con Co Island Visitor arrivals 13,267 18,506 22,305 25,545 55,402 78,983 12,278 93% 36,896 199% 56,679 254%

International 1,808 2,519 3,033 4,586 9,938 14,154 2,779 154% 7,419 295% 11,121 367%

Domestic 11,459 15,987 19,272 20,959 45,464 64,830 9,499 83% 29,477 184% 45,557 236%

Tourism receipts ($mln) 0.59 0.82 0.99 1.18 2.56 3.64 0.59 101% 1.74 212% 2.66 269%

Ferry service Cua Viet-Con Co Island Ferry-roundtrips 238 325 388 442 940 1,333 205 86% 615 189% 945 243%

Passenger-roundtrips 14,267 19,506 23,305 26,545 56,402 79,983 12,278 86% 36,896 189% 56,679 243%

International 1,808 2,519 3,033 4,586 9,938 14,154 2,779 154% 7,419 295% 11,121 367%

Domestic 12,459 16,987 20,272 21,959 46,464 65,830 9,499 76% 29,477 174% 45,557 225%

Fare receipts ($mln) 0.29 0.39 0.47 0.53 1.13 1.60 0.25 86% 0.74 243% 1.13 243%

Cua Viet port operation Total receipts ($) 3,242 4,433 5,297 94,955 117,750 135,756 91,712 2828% 113,317 2556% 130,460 2463%

Passenger service charge ($) 3,242 4,433 5,297 12,066 25,637 36,356 8,823 272% 21,204 478% 31,060 586%

Rental fee of pier facilities ($) 75,000 75,000 75,000 75,000 Parking fees ($) 17,113 24,400 17,113 24,400


23

E. Thua Thien Hue Province

a. Tourism in Thua Thien Hue 33. Thua Thien Hue Province is in North Central Viet Nam, covering 5,033 km2 with a population of 1.1 million. It borders Quang Tri Province to the north, Da Nang to the south, Lao PDR to the west, and has a 128km coastline facing the East Sea. 34. The provincial capital, Hue, is well known for its historic monuments. Among them is the Imperial City, which occupies a large, walled area on the Perfume River’s north side, with many surrounding tombs, temples and pagodas. The Complex of Hué Monuments was inscribed on the World Heritage List in 1993 and has become the primary tourist attraction. Popular tourist activities include visiting the citadel and other historic monuments, boat trips on the Huong river, and day trips to the vast lagoon and beaches. 35. Thua Thien Hue welcomed 3.3 million tourists in 2016, out of which 1.0 million (32%) were international tourists. The cumulative annual growth rate during 2012-2016 was 6.4%, with both international and domestic arrivals increasing in 2016. Tourism receipts were $146 million in 2016, a 7.1% increase over 2015. While daily expenditure increased in 2016, the average length of stay for international and domestic tourists decreased.

Table 17: Thua Thien Hue Province Baseline Conditions 2012-2016


2016/2015 (%)

CAGR 2012-2016

(%)

Tourist arrivals - Total 2,544,762 2,599,837 2,906,755 3,126,495 3,258,127 4.2 6.4

International tourists 867,904 927,828 1,007,290 1,023,015 1,052,952 2.9 5.0

Domestic tourists 1,676,858 1,672,009 1,899,465 2,103,480 2,205,175 4.8 7.1

Tourism receipts - Total ($mln) 106.8 116.8 127.7 139.5 145.6 4.4 8.1

International tourists ($mln) 65.1 71.2 77.9 85.1 88.8 4.4 8.1

Domestic tourists ($mln) 41.6 45.6 49.8 54.4 56.8 4.4 8.1

Length of Stay

International tourists 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.2 -6.2 2.2

Domestic tourists 2.0 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.5 -19.8 -6.5







CAGR = compound annual growth rate, mln = million. Source: Thua Thien-Hue Department of Tourism 36. Strategic investment is needed to extend length of stay address potential overcrowding. The project’s proposed road improvements to Hon Chen Temple, Truc Lam Bạch Ma Zen Temple; and Huong River piers improvements will help create new tour programs and economic opportunities for residents.

b. Tourism Forecasts for Thua Thien Hue 37. The assumptions are in Table 19. As shown in Table 20, without-project forecasts suggest that Thua Thien Hue will receive 2,699,063 tourists (1,126,034 international) and generate just over $225 million in 2026; and 4,561,029 tourists (1,902,337 international), generating about $381 million in 2046. The with-project scenario places total arrivals at

24

2,730,247 (1,139,044 international) in 2026, generating $240 million; and at 4,810,151 million (2,006,243 international), generating nearly $423 million in 2046.

c. Forecasts for Output 1 infrastructure subprojects in Thua Thien Hue 38. Baseline conditions and projections for each infrastructure subproject are in Table 20. The underlying assumptions are presented below.

H1 Hon Chen Temple Access Improvements

Baseline conditions: ▪ International and domestic arrivals as reported by DOT; ▪ Entry ticket receipts as reported by DOT; ▪ Parking fees will be introduced once the new parking area is

completed – baseline: nil. Without-project scenario:

▪ International and domestic arrivals growth rate is the same as provincial arrivals growth rate;

▪ Receipts from entry tickets grow at the same rate as arrivals; ▪ Receipts from parking fees is not applicable.

With-project scenario: ▪ International and domestic arrivals growth rate is the same as

provincial growth rate until 2023, with 4% incremental growth during 2023-2030 and 3% incremental growth during 2031-2040;

▪ Receipts from entry tickets grow at the same rate as arrivals; ▪ Receipts from parking fees are assumed at $0.25 per visitor from

2023 onwards, assuming 80% of all visitors arrive by road. H2 Huong River Tourist Piers Improvement

Three improved and two new Huong River Piers Baseline conditions:

• Three of the five piers are existing and will be upgraded (5 Le Loi, Bao Vinh, and Than), while two will be newly constructed (Voi Re-Ho Quyen and Thanh Tien). Among the three piers to be upgraded, Le Loi is an existing busy pier downtown and the two others, Bao Vinh and Than, are located outside the city’s center and are less busy. Therefore, the baseline for Bao Vinh and Than is assumed at 40% of baseline data for 5 Le Loi Pier;

• Rental fees for commercial space at piers will be introduced once the pier improvements and construction are completed – baseline: nil.


• Growth rate for tourist boats handled, passengers handled, and receipts from passenger services for 5 Le Loi, Bao Vinh, and Than piers are the same as provincial arrival growth;

• Receipts from rental fees for commercial space at piers is not applicable.


• Growth in numbers of tourist boats handled, passengers handled, and receipts from passenger services for 5 Le Loi, Bao Vinh, and Than piers is the same rate as provincial arrivals growth until 2023. During 2023-2030 there is 2% incremental growth and during 2031-2040 there is 1% incremental growth;

25

• From 2023 onwards, when Voi Re-Ho Quyen and Thanh Tien piers become operational, it is assumed that these piers will also each generate 40% of the tourist boats handled, passengers handled and receipts from passenger services projected for 5 Le Loi pier;

• The combined receipts from rental fees for commercial space at 5 Le Loi, Than, Voi Re-Ho Quyen and Thanh Tien piers (estimated at 407m2) are assumed $48,840 per year from 2023 onwards.

Tam Giang Lagoon Piers Baseline conditions:

• Ferry-trips and passengers-trips as estimated by DOT;

• Fare receipts from ferry service as estimated by DOT;

• Land lease for three restaurants at Con Toc pier, estimated at $7,500 per year;

• Vinh Thu community activities will become operational once the improvements to the pier facilities are completed – baseline is nil.


• Ferry-trips and passenger-trips grow at same rate as provincial tourist arrivals;

• Ferry operation receipts grow at same rate as passenger trips;

• Land lease receipts for three restaurants at Con Toc pier assumed to remain the same as baseline;

• Receipts from Vinh Thu community activities is not applicable.

With project scenario:

• Ferry-trips and passenger-trips grow at same rate as provincial tourist arrivals until 2023. During 2023-2030 there is 2% incremental growth and during 2031-2040, 1% incremental growth;

• Ferry operation receipts grow at same rate as passenger trips;

• Land lease receipts for three restaurants at Con Toc pier assumed to remain the same as baseline;

• Vinh Thu community receipts are $1 per passenger, from 2023 onwards.

H4 Da Bac Access Improvements Truc Lam Bạch Ma Zen Temple



• Receipts from ferry service to temple as reported by DOT;

• Other expenditure at the temple is estimated $5 per international visitor and $10 (incl. donations) per domestic visitor;

• The electric car service will become operational once the access improvements are completed – baseline is nil;


• International and domestic arrivals growth rate is the same as provincial growth rate assumption;

• Ferry service receipts grow at the same rate as arrivals;

26

• Receipts from other expenditure at the temple calculated the same way as for the baseline.


• International and domestic arrivals growth rate is the same as provincial growth until 2023. During 2023-2030 there is 2.5% incremental growth and during 2031-2040 1.5% incremental growth;

• Ferry service receipts grow at the same rate as arrivals;

• Other expenditure receipts same as baseline assumption;

• Receipts from electric car service estimated $1.5 per person, assuming 80% of all visitors use the service.

Da Bac Banyan Tree Relics Baseline conditions:


• Receipts from commercial activities by local community as reported by DOT;

• Rental fees for commercial space at the site will be introduced once the site improvements are completed – baseline is nil.


• International and domestic arrivals growth rate is the same as provincial growth rate assumption;

• Receipts from commercial activities by local community grows at same rate as provincial arrivals;

• Receipts from rental fees for commercial space is not applicable.


• International and domestic arrivals growth rate is the same as provincial growth until 2023. During 2023-2030 there is 2.5% incremental growth and during 2031-2040 1.5% incremental growth;

• Receipts from commercial activities by local community grow at same rate as arrivals until 2022, with 100% incremental annual growth in 2023. Thereafter, incremental annual growth will continue at the same rate as arrivals;

• Receipts from rental fees for commercial space (estimated at 200m2) are assumed $24,000 per year from 2023 onwards.

27

Table 18: Thua Thien Hue Province Assumptions for Tourism Forecasts


2018-2023 2024-2030 2031-2040 2041-2046 2018-2023 2024-2030 2031-2040 2041-2046








Table 19: Thua Thien Hue Province Tourism Forecasts 2016-2046


2016 2026 2036 2046 2026 2036 2046 2026 2036 2046


International tourists 1,052,952 1,126,034 1,574,524 1,902,337 1,139,044 1,634,766 2,006,243 13,010 1.2% 60,242 3.8% 103,907 5.5%








28

Table 20: Thua Thien Hue Province Tourism Forecasts, by Subproject, 2016-2046


2016 2026 2036 2046 2026 2036 2046 2026 2036 2046

H1 Hon Chen Temple Access Improvements Hon Chen Temple Visitor arrivals 30,815 47,732 66,757 80,672 56,103 111,157 153,037 8,371 17.5% 44,400 66.5% 72,365 89.7%

International 3,687 5,697 7,967 9,625 6,697 13,265 18,260 999 17.5% 5,299 66.5% 8,634 89.7%

Domestic 27,128 42,035 58,790 71,047 49,407 97,892 134,777 7,371 17.5% 39,101 66.5% 63,731 89.7%

Total receipts ($) 56,027 86,786 121,376 146,676 113,226 224,335 308,856 26,440 30.5% 102,959 84.8% 162,180 110.6%

Ticket sales ($) 56,027 86,786 121,376 146,676 102,006 202,104 278,249 15,219 17.5% 80,727 66.5% 131,573 89.7%

Parking fees ($) 11,221 22,231 30,607 11,221 22,231 30,607 H2 Hue Tourist Piers Improvement Bao Vinh Heritage Village Pier

Tour boats served 5,824 8,999 12,583 15,203 9,819 16,109 20,548 820 9.1% 3,525 28.0% 5,344 35.2%

Passengers served 62,156 96,048 134,303 162,265 104,803 171,929 219,307 8,755 9.1% 37,627 28.0% 57,043 35.2%

Receipts from passenger service ($) 97,060 149,983 209,720 253,384 163,655 268,476 342,458 13,672 9.1% 58,756 28.0% 89,075 35.2%

5 Le Loi Pier Tour boats served 14,559 22,498 31,458 38,008 24,548 40,271 51,369 2,051 9.1% 8,813 28.0% 13,361 35.2%


Total receipts ($) 242,650 374,959 524,301 633,460 421,139 683,190 868,146 46,180 12.3% 158,889 30.3% 234,687 37.0%


Rental fees commercial space ($) 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 12,000 Voi Re-Ho Quyen Pier

Tour boats served 9,819 16,109 20,548 9,819 16,109 20,548 Passengers served 104,803 171,929 219,307 104,803 171,929 219,307 Total receipts ($) 172,655 277,476 351,458 172,655 277,476 351,458 Receipts from passenger service ($) 163,655 268,476 342,458 163,655 268,476 342,458 Rental fees commercial space ($) 9,000 9,000 9,000 9,000 9,000 9,000

Than Pier Tour boats served 5,824 8,999 12,583 15,203 9,819 16,109 20,548 820 9.1% 3,525 28.0% 5,344 35.2%


Total receipts ($) 97,060 149,983 209,720 253,384 187,655 292,476 366,458 37,672 25.1% 82,756 39.5% 113,075 44.6%


Rental fees commercial space ($) 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000 Thanh Tien Pier

Tour boats served 9,819 16,109 20,548 9,819 16,109 20,548 Passengers served 104,803 171,929 219,307 104,803 171,929 219,307 Total receipts ($) 167,495 272,316 346,298 167,495 272,316 346,298 Receipts from passenger service ($) 163,655 268,476 342,458 163,655 268,476 342,458

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2016 2026 2036 2046 2026 2036 2046 2026 2036 2046

Rental fees market stalls ($) 3,840 3,840 3,840 3,840 3,840 3,840 Tam Giang Lagoon, Con Toc and Vinh Tu Piers Ferry-trips 5,000 7,726 10,804 13,053 8,431 13,830 17,642 704 9.1% 3,027 28.0% 4,589 35.2%

Passenger-trips 30,000 46,358 64,822 78,318 50,584 82,982 105,850 4,226 9.1% 18,161 28.0% 27,532 35.2%

Fare receipts ($) 3,182 4,917 6,875 8,306 5,365 8,801 11,226 448 9.1% 1,926 28.0% 2,920 35.2%

Land lease restaurants receipts ($) 7,500 7,500 7,500 7,500 7,500 7,500 7,500 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0%

Vinh Thu community receipts ($) 50,584 82,982 105,850 50,584 82,982 105,850 H3 Da Bac Access Improvements Truc Lam Bạch Ma Zen Temple Visitor arrivals 35,000 54,229 75,844 91,655 60,290 103,736 134,913 6,061 11.2% 27,892 36.8% 43,258 47.2%

International 1,000 1,545 2,161 2,611 1,718 2,955 3,843 173 11.2% 795 36.8% 1,232 47.2%

Domestic 34,000 52,683 73,683 89,044 58,572 100,780 131,070 5,888 11.2% 27,097 36.8% 42,026 47.2%

Total receipts ($) 400,682 620,832 868,295 1,049,306 762,569 1,312,098 1,706,442 141,737 22.8% 443,803 51.1% 657,136 62.6%

Ferry service to temple ($) 55,682 86,273 120,661 145,814 95,915 165,034 214,634 9,643 11.2% 44,374 36.8% 68,820 47.2%

Electric car service ($) 72,348 124,483 161,895 72,348 124,483 161,895 Other expenditure at temple ($) 345,000 534,559 747,634 903,492 594,306 1,022,581 1,329,913 59,747 11.2% 274,946 36.8% 426,421 47.2%

Da Bac Banyan Tree Relics Visitor arrivals 7,300 11,301 15,804 19,097 12,564 21,616 28,111 1,263 11.2% 5,812 36.8% 9,013 47.2%

International 2,520 3,894 5,445 6,579 4,329 7,448 9,684 435 11.2% 2,002 36.8% 3,105 47.2%

Domestic 4,780 7,407 10,359 12,519 8,234 14,169 18,427 828 11.2% 3,810 36.8% 5,908 47.2%

Total receipts ($) 36,500 56,504 79,020 95,486 149,638 240,161 305,106 93,134 164.8% 161,141 203.9% 209,620 219.5%

Community activities ($) 36,500 56,504 79,020 95,486 125,638 216,161 281,106 69,134 122.4% 137,141 173.6% 185,620 194.4%

Rental commercial space ($) 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000
