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14th Global Forum on Tourism Statistics
Venice, Italy | 24 November 2016
Presented by
Emmanuel A. San Andres, Analyst
APEC Policy Support Unit
Copyright © 2015 APEC Secretariat
Tourist Arrivals in the
APEC Region
Outline
• About APEC • Tourist arrivals in the APEC region • Analytical framework • Determinants of tourist arrivals • Impacts of tourist arrivals • Policy implications
APEC Member Economies
APEC Official Observers • Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Secretariat • Pacific Economic Cooperation Council (PECC) • Pacific Islands Forum (PIF)
APEC Policy Support Unit
• APEC Policy Support Unit (PSU) is the research and analysis arm of APEC. • Conducts independent research in line with APEC’s core priorities.
• Mission: To provide rigorous research & analysis needed to improve the quality of APEC's deliberations and decisions. • Provide APEC members and fora with professional & tailor-made
research, analysis, policy support & evidence-based policy suggestions.
• Five focus areas: • Trade & Investment Liberalization & Facilitation • Structural Reform • Connectivity including Supply Chain Connectivity & Global Supply Chains • Economic and Financial Analysis • Sustainable Economic Development
APEC’s Significance
Source: StatsAPEC, Key Indicators Database.
APEC tourist arrivals, 1995-2013
Economic Development
- Economic growth
- Inclusive growth
- Trade/investment
Pull factors
- Connectivity
- Access
- Safety
- Tourist attractions
- Cost/exchange rate
Tourism Performance
- Arrivals
- Growth
Push factors
- Income
- Macroeconomic factors
- Awareness
Analytical framework
Determinants of tourist arrivals
Push Factors Pull Factors
Exogenous Factors
Origin GDP growth Origin currency Origin population growth Origin/year factors
Destination GDP Bilateral trade Destination currency Distance Shared border Common language History Destination/year factors
Endogenous Factors
Awareness Origin passport power
Visa requirements Connectivity Safety Attractions
Determinants of tourist arrivals
Coefficient Significance
Exogenous factors
Destination GDP 0.218
Origin GDP 0.717 ***
Bilateral exports 0.044 ***
Bilateral imports 0.018 *
Destination REER 0.001
Origin REER 0.004 ***
Distance -0.0001 ***
Common border+ 1.958 ***
Common language+ 0.853 ***
Common colony in 1945+ 3.353 ***
Origin population -0.470
Determinants of tourist arrivals
MAIN FINDINGS: EXOGENOUS FACTORS
• Positive macroeconomic conditions contribute positively to tourism performance • GDP growth in origin and destination • Bilateral trade growth
• Real exchange rate appreciation in origin economy increases tourism from that economy
• Geographic distance has negative impact (but…); having a common land border has a strong positive impact
• Common language and recent shared history (e.g., colonization, same country) has a strong positive impact
Determinants of tourist arrivals
Coefficient Significance
Endogenous factors
Visa required+ -0.514 *** Origin passport power 0.015 * Direct flight+ 0.346 *** Flight time -0.001 ** Connectedness 0.014 *** Terrorism -0.0003 Crime -0.008 * Search popularity (economy) -0.005 *** UN Heritage Sites 0.006
Determinants of tourist arrivals
MAIN FINDINGS: ENDOGENOUS FACTORS
• Visa requirements have the strongest impact • Imposing visas alone reduces bilateral tourist arrivals growth by
0.5% • Visa facilitation measures like e-visas will help, but high costs
can negate positive effects of facilitation
• Air connectivity has the next strongest impact • Having a direct flight can increase bilateral tourist arrivals by
0.3% • Connectivity offsets effects of distance
• Ensuring safety and developing attractions can also contribute to tourism arrivals
• Negative awareness from news events seem to dominate
Impacts of tourist arrivals
Elasticity of macro indicators wrt tourist arrivals
Impacts of tourism arrivals
Dependent variable
Explanatory variables Number of extremely poor
Inclusive growth rate
Tourist arrivals -0.124* 0.001
GDP -0.909*** -0.291
Population 5.845*** -0.060
Inequality 0.096*** -0.036***
N 958 1,051
Prob > chi2; F 0.000 0.012
Marginal effects on poverty reduction and inclusive growth
Policy implications
• Travel facilitation and air connectivity are the two most important policies for tourism development • Visa requirements, costs, and uncertainty are a first hurdle to visiting
destinations • If visas need to be imposed, facilitating applications and lowering
costs will contribute to tourism growth • Measures improving air connectivity and giving tourists more travel
options (e.g., open skies, airline competition) can contribute to growth
• Tourist safety; site development; image management • Enhance inclusiveness of tourism industry
• Access to training and skills development • Access to capital • Access to social protection and insurance
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