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Towards Quantification of Condition Monitoring Benefit for Wind Turbine Generators
Mr. David McMillan (Presenting)and Dr. Graham W. Ault
Evaluate and quantify condition monitoring system benefit for wind turbines via probabilistic simulation
Summary:
10th May 2007, EWEC Milan
Overview of this Morning’s Presentation
• Trends in Wind Capacity: UK focus
• Barriers to employment of condition based maintenance (CBM) for Wind Turbine Generators (WTGs)
• Forming an Economic case for Wind Turbine CM systems
• Modelling and Analysis to Quantify WTG CM Benefit
• Results, Conclusions and Discussion
Trends in Wind Capacity and Condition Monitoring
Renewables Obligation fuelling rapid build of Wind Capacity in the UK
Over 10GW (>10%) of capacity in the UK planning system alone
Turbines increasingly installed with a Condition Monitoring (CM) system
… However, utilities are reluctant to move towards condition - based maintenance of wind farms.
WHY?
Level of Renewables Obligation
02468
101214161820
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Lev
el o
f R
O %
… Until 2027
Possible Reasons Against Employment of CBM
The low technical impact of a single wind turbine outage
The low economic yield of WT– relative to fossil fueled plant
An assumption that the simplest methods will serve best
- Hence use of scheduled (periodic) maintenance
Time
Periodic MaintenanceReactive Maintenance
Well-known practical difficulties with CM
- Transducers (Mounting, Spurious Signals, Reliability)
- Interpretation: Pay a team of experts or rely on automation
Motivation: The Economic Case for CM
Fact: Wind farm operators will only move towards widespread use of CM systems if the economic case for their use is clear.
… So answers to the following questions would be useful:
1. What is the value of a wind turbine condition monitoring system?
2. Are CM systems currently cost-effective?
3. What are the necessary conditions for cost-effective WTG CM?
Build a set of models to answer these questions.
The ‘Component’ Model
Turbine condition states, Turbine component reliability
Quantified: Availability, Reliability & Condition
Condition Model Markov Chain Solvedvia Monte Carlo Sim.
Wind Regime, Turbine Power Curve, Turbine and Market Economics
Evaluated via Wind Turbine performance
Power PerformanceEvaluation Model
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25
Yield, cost, revenue, spares, operational life & maintenance objectives
Tested assetmanagement policies
Asset Management & High-Level Objectives Model
Modelling Approach Summary
Modelled Components
Two sources of information to decide which components to model:
1. Wind Turbine Sub-Component Reliability Data
2. Wind Farm Operational Experience
Sub-Component Reliability Data: Failures
[1] G.J.W. van Bussel et al, Reliability, Availability and Maintenance aspects of large-scale offshore wind farms, MAREC01, [2] P.J. Tavner et al, Machine and Converter Reliabilities in Wind Turbines, PEMD 06, [3] H. Braam et al, Models to Analyse Operation and Maintenance Aspects of Offshore Wind Farms, ECN
Operational Experience
The published data focuses primarily on annual failure rate
- What about the severity of the failure: cost, downtime etc?
Dialogue with WT operators reveals the most severe failures:
Gearbox Generator
- High Capital Cost
- Long Lead Time
- In-Situ Repair Difficult
- Large Size/ Weight
- Position: in Nacelle, at the top of the tower
Model Development: Selected Components and Monitoring
Blade
Optical Strain
Generator
Vibration
Lube Oil Analysis
Temperature
Gearbox
Vibration
Lube Oil Analysis
Temperature
Power Electronics
No Monitoring
Input Values
Annual Turbine Failure Rate = 2.1
Gearbox 1.25
Generator 0.28
Blade 0.1
Electronics 0.46
WT Component Modelling Technique
Method: Discrete-time Markov chain solved via Monte Carlo simulation
Useful Features of this Modelling Framework
• Flexible approach: easily add new features
• Able to model Condition Monitoring (knowledge of states)
• Probabilistic nature can take account of future uncertainties
Model wind turbine as a deteriorating system of sub-components
• A recognised method for equipment degradation modelling
• Easily interfaced with other models
• Multi-stage model can capture time dependence
State Space of 4-Component Model
21 C1 DC2 UC3 UC4 U
22 C1 D
C2 DER
C3 U
C4 U
11 C1 DER
C2 UC3 DC4 U
1 C1 U
C2 UC3 U
C4 U
9 C1 U
C2 UC3 DC4 U
15 C1 DER
C2 DERC3 DC4 U
12 C1 U
C2 DERC3 DC4 U
3 C1 UC2 DER
C4 U
C3 U
25 C1 UC2 DC3 UC4 U
26 C1 DERC2 DC3 UC4 U
8 C1 DER
C2 DER
C4 DERC3 U
6 C1 UC2 DER
C4 DERC3 U
5 C1 UC2 U
C4 DERC3 U
17 C1 U
C2 U
C4 DC3 U
27 C1 U
C2 D
C4 DERC3 U
19 C1 U
C2 DER
C4 DC3 U
28 C1 DER
C2 D
C4 DERC3 U
24 C1 D
C2 DER
C4 DERC3 U
20 C1 DERC2 DER
C4 DC3 U
4 C1 DERC2 DER
C3 UC4 U
7 C1 DER
C2 U
C4 DERC3 U
2 C1 DER
C2 UC3 U
C4 U
18 C1 DER
C2 U
C4 DC3 U
23 C1 D
C2 U
C4 DERC3 U
13 C1 DER
C2 U
C4 DERC3 D
10 C1 UC2 U
C4 DERC3 D
14 C1 UC2 DER
C4 DERC3 D
16 C1 DER
C2 DER
C4 DERC3 D
States Comp # State #
Normal/ Derated All 1 to 8
Electronics C3 9 to 16
Blade C4 17 to 20
Gearbox C1 21 to 24
Generator C2 25 to 28
The Power Performance Evaluation Model
Yield, cost, revenue, spares, operational life & maintenance objectives
Tested assetmanagement policies
Asset Management & High-Level Objectives Model
Turbine condition states, Turbine component reliability
Quantified: Availability, Reliability & Condition
Condition Model Markov Chain Solvedvia Monte Carlo Sim.
Wind Regime, Turbine Power Curve, Turbine and Market Economics
Evaluated via Wind Turbine performance
Power PerformanceEvaluation Model
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25
Modelling Approach Summary
Wind Turbine Yield Model
Wind Speed Distribution
0
0.01
0.02
0.03
0.04
0.05
0.06
0.07
0.08
0.0
1.4
2.7
4.1
5.4
6.8
8.1
9.5
10.8
12.2
13.5
14.9
16.2
17.6
18.9
20.3
21.6
23.0
24.3
25.7
27.0
28.4
29.7
31.1
32.4
Wind Speed m/s
Pro
babi
lity
Yearly site wind speed data used to form probability distribution
Wind speed is generated by randomly sampling this distribution
This is fed into the turbine curve model
Wind Speed Model Turbine Curve Model
Sampled from manufacturers data sheet
Trials
TROCElecT MPMPMWhvenue
1Re
Revenue Calculation
Market Price Electricity = £36/MWh Market Price ROCs = £40/MWh
The Asset Management Model
Yield, cost, revenue, spares, operational life & maintenance objectives
Tested assetmanagement policies
Asset Management & High-Level Objectives Model
Turbine condition states, Turbine component reliability
Quantified: Availability, Reliability & Condition
Condition Model Markov Chain Solvedvia Monte Carlo Sim.
Wind Regime, Turbine Power Curve, Turbine and Market Economics
Evaluated via Wind Turbine performance
Power PerformanceEvaluation Model
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25
Modelling Approach Summary
Maintenance Models
1. Scheduled 6-Month Maintenance
Maintain at set intervals (current practice)
2. Condition Based Maintenance
Maintain at intervals informed via condition information
Replacement and Repair Costs
These costs are subtracted from the turbine revenue stream
Maintenance Frequency
Weather Constraints
Other conditions such as lightning or snowfall also prohibitive.
Wind speed (M/S)
Restrictions
30 No access to site
20 No climbing turbines
18 No opening roof doors fully
15 No working on roof of nacelle
12 No going into hub
10 No lifting roof of nacelle
7 No blade removal
5 No climbing met masts
CBM Maintenance Regime
Condition-Based decision model: couple condition & maintenance
Use concept of operating risk as decision-metric:
)Im()Pr()( eventeventstateRiskNN
Im(event) = Economic term(s), currently replacement cost of component
Risk Magnitude Informing Maintenance Intervals
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
MODEL STATE
RIS
K
Risk associated with each model state
The risk magnitude sets the level of maintenance urgency via delay time
Condition and Maintenance are now Linked
Simulation Study for CM Evaluation
These concepts were coded in Fortran 95
Multiple runs of the program were conducted: Average values and confidence limits calculated:
The following metrics were produced for a periodic maintenance policy:
N
SDevZL
@ 95% degree of confidence,
Z score =1.65
Gearbox 1.31
Generator 0.21
Electronics 0.43
Blade 0.07
Maintenance Comparison: Periodic Vs. CBM
• Simulation resolution is 1 day
• Simulation run 30 times, for 14,000 trials
Conclusions
• It appears possible to quantify the benefits of WTG CM via modelling
• Less assumptions, better characterisation of actual processes
• Test model for different conditions: wind regime, turbine ratings etc.
• Model reliability of condition monitoring system itself
Implications for Future Research
• CBM annual value of £2,000: borderline cost-effective
… But how is value of CM affected by different operating conditions?
• The model outputs can provide ballpark figures but the assumptions must be valid!
Towards Quantification of Condition Monitoring Benefit for Wind Turbine Generators
Mr David McMillan and Dr. Graham W. AultE-mail: [email protected]
Many thanks to Yusuf Patel at Scottish Power and Peter Diver at ITI Energy.
This research was conducted under the PROSEN project, EPSRC grant number EP/C014790/1.