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Forex System Development Workshop

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Trader #1:Justin Paolini Aka “JupaFX”

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Welcome

G’day, Howdy, Guten Tag, Ni Hao, Вітаю, Hallo, Konnichiwa, Chào and welcome to session #4 of the Forex System Development Workshop.

Live and Interactive

Don’t be a Shy Sally or a Bashful Barry, ask questions,

take your time.

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JupaFX

About JupaFX

-Has been a trader since 2007, first in various institutions in Italy and then for himself;- Went though the school of hard knocks like many;- Was fortunate enough to survive, and since then his analysis has been hosted in sector-specific newspapers and online sites;- Masters Degree in Finance & Banking;- Top Trainer for the Italian Fitness Federation;- ESL Teacher

Trading Style

I’m a trend/momentum trader. I look for evident trends backed by evident sentiment influences, and then take a stab via pullbacks or breakouts. I work a 4-step rule-based model: 1. Idenfity the likely sentiment influences and the corresponding FX pairs, Commodities or Indices that should be influenced;2. Rank the instruments selected, based on the quality of their trend3. Execute the trades via pullback or breakout (whatever suits the ever evolving maket conditions)4. Manage the trades based on space available (ATR), time objectives (intraday or multiday holding period), common sense.-Rinse & repeat.

Trading Style

A chart is worth 1000 words…

First, we need to have a BIAS.a) I’m Flat or Longb) I’m flat or Short

Look at the next 3 charts. In 10 seconds you should know what your Bias is on your primary Time Frame of

Reference…..

Trading Style

A chart is worth 1000 words…

Clearly trending!

Trading Style

A chart is worth 1000 words…

Mmm…not as clear…consolidation in a downtrend?

Trading Style

A chart is worth 1000 words…

Clearly Trending!

Technical Set-up Conditions

Self-Similarity Concept on 4H + 1H

Generally: if your Primary TF is trending, your Secondary will be also. We want momentum to be in our favour, not just trend.

Technical Set-up Conditions

I want to participate when we have momentum in line with the trend. I want to be out during retracements.

Fundamental Set-up Conditions

Themes for the week Flavour of the day

Fundamental Set-up Conditions

Timing Your Entry

Pullbacks and breakouts ONLY in line with the primary trend, with momentum.

“What do you use as your entry point?”

Timing Your Entry

-80% of trades are initiated during the London Morning- “Don’t give up the Ghost until the London Fix is toast” means that after the London Fix, volumes drop and trade success can be limited.- No “gambling” on news events -Yes to “reaction” post news event (but you need to have done your sentiment homework)

Stop-loss and Trailing Stops

The stop loss will generally be away from the intraday chop, so above the day’s high if I’m shorting or below the day’s low if I’m buying.

Stop-loss and Trailing Stops

Insert bullets/ charts/ whatever is relevant

Stop-loss and Trailing Stops

Risk:Reward is always part of the equation.

Insert bullets/ charts/ whatever is relevant

Exits

1. I can be stopped out2. Price can shoot aggressively away from my entry,

get to 1R and then fall back I’ll scratch at par.3. Price can shoot away from my entry, consolidate

I’ll roll over the position hoping to add.4. Price can stay around my entry for hours and not

do anything I’ll scratch at par or with a small loss.

5. I can get lucky and see 3-5R in a single session I’ll take it and say thank you.

Trade Management

Understand the concept of “space” via ATR

News Events

I will try to go into Central Bank announcements flat as a pancake unless I’m carrying a long

lasting trade from days or weeks before. I will trade reactively to less influential news events if

I have a clear sentiment read and the market obliges.

Position Sizing

Fixed % of Consolidated Equity

Ex. 10000 Euros Consolidated Equity0.5% per position = 0.005*10000 = 50 Euros(50 Euros/(SL pips * pip value/lot))/100000

So a larger SL will allow for a smaller position; a smaller SL will allow for a larger position.

Risk Management

I make sure I don’t overtrade. My average is 3 trades/week so I know I’m pushing the letter if I

trade 6-7 times. I also stop trading for a few days after 3 losses in a row, whether on the

same day or same week.

Risk Management

The Three Most Important Things

– Keep it simple & subtle (complexity will kill your account)

– Use your common sense and train it. If something doesn’t look right, get out. If the coast is clear, don’t bail. But you can only make sensible assessments if you’ve trained your instincts by repeating the same analysis/decision making process time & time again. That’s why I’m in favour of systematic/rule-based methods.

– Risk very little each trade. Survive to trade another day.

Special Topic #1

I would really like to talk about expectations and how to save the aspiring trader from years of mental and financial stress.

-Capitalization

-Income Flow-Time Constraints

- Investing vs. Trading

Questions

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Trade Examples

Trade Example #1

I firmly believe that you need to live the experience live, since I work a rule-based

strategy and not a 100% automatic method.

So allow me to share my screens…

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Questions, Queries, Feedback