Traffic and Capacity Performance

Summer 2008 Outlook

Traffic and Capacity Performance

Summer 2008 Outlook

PC/29 – 9 May 2008Item 3

PC/29 – 9 May 2008Item 3

Traffic forecast 20084% Traffic Growth

•Significant trend to “shortest/cheapest route” choice – where possible•Trends confirmed by the airspace users for their strategic planning•Discussed with ANSPs during the preparations for Summer 2008

2008-2010 Delay Forecast

•Based on revision of capacity plans

•PC delay target not met for the third consecutive year

En-Route ATFM Delay Evolution - Summer Season Baseline growth scenario - All causes included

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Average delay (min/ flight)

En-Route ATFM Delay 5,5 3,6 3,1 1,8 1,2 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,6 PC Target 2,8 2,8 2,8 2,4 2,1 1,7 1,4 1 1 1 1 1 1 En-route ATFM delay forecast 1,7 2 2 1,5

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

PC target

Actual en-route delay

En-route delay forecast

2008 Summer Season (May-October)Delay Forecast – All reasons included

2009 Delay Forecast Baseline Traffic Growth

2010 Delay Forecast Baseline Traffic Growth

• Preparation of capacity plans with 19 ANSPs - bi-lateral meetings

• Preparation of airspace changes for Summer 2008 ( 135 packages of airspace design proposals prepared for Summer 2008)

• Airspace and Capacity Simulations for a large number of ACCs

• Enhanced ASM/ATFCM scenarios

• CFMU co-ordination of capacity and flow management actions

• Preparation of the European Football Championships

Summer 2008 Main actions undertaken in coordination with ANSPs

• Weather impact ( 25 % of delays on a year)

• Staffing concerns at many ACCs•Impact on availability of optimum configurations

• Co-ordinated implementation of major ATM system changes

• Commitment on improved airspace design solutions

• Stronger involvement in network ATFCM actions

• Reliability and full implementation of local plans

Main Issues in the Short/Medium Term

• Optimum airspace and capacity planning

• Further ASM/ATFCM integration

•Support and facilitation by CFMU

• Improved management of weather aspects

• Priority to DMEAN implementation

Enhanced Network Operations managementFor the next years

Enhanced

Network

Operations Management

• Advanced planning• 3-5 years ahead to tactical

• Full participation • CFMU co-ordination

A seamless process

The PC is invited to:

a. express concern that, as currently forecast, the Provisional Council en-route delay target would not be met during the period 2008-2011;

b. ensure the full implementation of all local/network capacity and airspace plans prior to the Summer 2008 and to request ANSPs to work with the Agency on a critical revision of medium term capacity plans;

c. urge all stakeholders to work with the Agency to increase the deployment of network initiatives and the overall network operational coordination;

d. urge States to take all the necessary measures to address urgently the issue of ATCO staffing levels throughout the European network

Recommendations