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TRANSFORMATIVE TRANSPORT NAMAs:
Colombia TOD NAMA overview
Steve Winkelman
May 4, 2018 │Bonn, Germany
NAMA Facility workshop
OUTLINE
• Introduction, Colombia TOD NAMA Steve Winkelman, CCAP
• TC Progress Update Juan Manuel Robledo, CIUDAT
• FC Launch Katharina Heß, KfW
• CIUDAT continuity plan JMR
• Q&A
• Mobilizing private investment in TOD
– Perspectives from CCAP, CIUDAT and KfW
– Group discussion
2
CENTER FOR CLEAN AIR POLICY
Projects and programs delivered in over 25 countries
MONTREAL WASHINGTON, D.C.
SANTIAGO
PRAGUE
33 years as a recognized leader in clean energy,
climate, and air quality solutions.
Key themes
GHG Mitigation,
Climate Finance,
Climate Policy • Transport
• Energy
• Waste
• Oil & Gas
Public-private
collaboration
TOD is high-density, mixed-use development w/in
walking distance of transit stations …
… or what Europeans call a city!
VITAL INGREDIENTS FOR TOD
Images: CityLab - Felipe Targa
TOD IS DISRUPTIVE URBAN TECHNOLOGY
5 Yuri Suzuki: ”Tube Map Radio” http://yurisuzuki.com/archive/works/tube-map-radio/
TOD IS DISRUPTIVE URBAN TECHNOLOGY
6
Reduces driving by 20-70% enhances accessibility
trip lengths
walking and transit use
GHG savings
Transportation a means to an end.
Accessibility, not mobility, is the goal.
TOD integrates Land Use and transportation
Yuri Suzuki: ”Tube Map Radio” http://yurisuzuki.com/archive/works/tube-map-radio/
Multiple Axes of Engagement on TOD Required for Transformational Change
7
LOCAL LOCAL
NATIONAL NATIONAL NATIONAL NATIONAL
LOCAL LOCAL
PRIVATE PRIVATE
PUBLIC PUBLIC
8
HIGH OPPORTUNITY COSTS OF NOT DOING TOD
9
HIGH POTENTIAL ECONOMIC BENEFITS OF TOD
Growing Wealthier
Documents TOD economic benefits (CCAP 2011)
Return on Investment
Business Household Local government National
Cost Savings
Business Household Local government National
Quality of Life Improvements
Business Household Local government National
Growing Wealthier Matrix
Return on Investment
Business Household Local government National
Cost Savings
Business Household Local government National
Quality of Life Improvements
Business Household Local government National
Growing Wealthier Matrix
Dallas: Retail sales
33% 1st year of light rail
Dallas: Retail sales
33% 1st year of light rail
Wash DC: $100 M in NoMa
Metro Station $3 billion
private development
Wash DC: $100 M in NoMa
Metro Station $3 billion
private development Bogotá: property values
15-20% near TransMilenio
Bogotá: property values
15-20% near TransMilenio
Sacramento: Infrastructure $9 billion
Sacramento: Infrastructure $9 billion
San Francisco: $140 M
health care costs by 2035
San Francisco: $140 M
health care costs by 2035
transport costs
30-40%
transport costs
30-40%
attracts new
businesses & tourists
attracts new
businesses & tourists
pedestrian fatalities
pedestrian fatalities Bogotá: travel
time 32%
Bogotá: travel
time 32%
Arlington: 8% of County land
33% of real estate taxes
Arlington: 8% of County land
33% of real estate taxes
Access to
customers, markets,
employees
Access to
customers, markets,
employees
12
Design: DavidMob
COLOMBIA TOD NAMA: HISTORY
Goal: Increase Return on Investments in Transport & Housing (GHG, Economic, Social)
13
LAND USE & TRANSIT:
NOT WELL INTEGRATED
Design: DavidMob
14
BENEFITS OF BRT AT RISK
Design: DavidMob
15
TOD BENEFITS FOR COLOMBIA
Design: DavidMob
OBJECTIVE: Transform urban development in Colombian cities to a TOD model that maximizes GHG reductions and co-benefits.
Foster policy and market conditions to focus public and private investment in TOD neighbourhoods through:
1. Catalytic local projects
2. Policies for national replication
3. M&E
4. Continuity plan
COLOMBIA TOD NAMA
16
17
Range of VKT Savings (2040)
% of pop Low High
Large Cities 47% 27% 40%
Medium Cities 12% 20% 30%
Small Cities 30% 13% 20%
Rural 10% 0% 0%
Weighted average 100% 19% 29%
0.0
100.0
200.0
300.0
400.0
500.0
600.0
700.0
2010 2025 2040
Base
Ambitious
Aggressive
Passenger Vehicle VKT (millions)
Reduce growth in driving 25 - 36%
from changes in land use and travel
Annual savings by 2040:
3.6 to 5.4 MMTCO2
Considers a range of TOD
performance and penetration
supported by technical literature
REDUCE DRIVING AND CO2
13 person staff + consultants
1. Projects:
2. Policies
3. M&E
4. Continuity plan
CIUDAT
Centro para Intervenciones
Urbanas de Desarrollo
Avanzado hacia el
Transporte
CIUDAT
Centro para Intervenciones
Urbanas de Desarrollo
Avanzado hacia el
Transporte
Technical Financial
FUNDING: €14.7 million
DELIVERY
IMPLEMENTATION
CIUDAT
* Advisory member
GOVERNANCE: CIUDAT Board
*
The functioning and growing importance of CIUDAT
is the NAMA’s greatest success and promise.
Advisory
Committee
18
MOBILIZING PRIVATE INVESTMENT IN TOD
(fostering market conditions)
• Pre-feasibility studies assessing barriers to private investment in TOD
• Theory of change can vary by city (depending on missing ingredients & barriers)
– Informs local interventions and national policies
• CIUDAT study of value capture tools (AFD/FFEM)
• City / developer dance: from incentives to requirements
– CIUDAT capacity building on private sector engagement (level the playing-field)
• Leverage, mobilize, redirect private investment in TOD
– Shifting investment to TOD neighbourhoods yields multiple benefits and synergies: GHG, economic and social
19
MOBILIZING PRIVATE INVESTMENT IN TOD
• Mobilizing private investment in TOD – Perspectives from CIUDAT and KfW
• Existing, planned and potential private investment in the pilot TOD
neighbourhoods
• How FINDETER and KfW investments, credit lines and programs in sustainable
urban public infrastructure help attract private TOD investment.
– Group discussion
20
Danke!
Thank you!
¡Gracias!
www.ccap.org
Steve Winkelman Consulting Project Manager
[email protected] @stevewink
MONITORING & EVALUATION
• M&E of longer-term impacts is challenging
• Broader M&E framework can enhance policy performance and increase support for replication
– Implementation progress (e.g., zoning changes, policies)
– Intermediate indicators (e.g., land use, travel)
– GHGs (estimate upfront, measure over time)
– Economic (household, business, governments)
– Social (time, $, quality of life)
M&E that addresses local priorities can shift from being a reporting burden to something that’s strongly supported.
22