Transitioning to Transitioning to Democracy: Democracy:

Possible TrapsPossible TrapsEducational Initiativeswww.eduinitiatives.org

Global rise of Global rise of DemocracyDemocracy

• 1980s: 35% of the world lived under some form of democracy

• 2000s: 70%• End of superpower

rivalry • Increased international

support for democracy• Global standards

(UDHR) & regional organizations

Global rise of Global rise of Democracy Democracy

• Interconnectednesso Arab Spring: events

as they happened

• Result: • 1) more of the

world’s citizens have had a voice in political discourse

• 2) Universality for democracy

Why Not Autocracy?Why Not Autocracy?• Autocracy can only maintain stability

through coercion and patronage• Corruption and human rights abuses • Political exclusion and inequality

o Increases risk of conflict breaking out in the future

• Humanitarian crises = USD 16.7 billion in 2010

Why Democracy?Why Democracy?• More civil liberties • More prosperous, healthy, secure societies • Enjoy higher economic growth in long term

(30% faster than autocracies)• More peaceful• Inclusive policy development (check &

balance)• Tolerate criticism and opposition• Protect minorities• Avoids zero-sum politics

Why Democracy?Why Democracy?• Most preferable form of

governance systems• People won’t give it up

after they struggle for it

• Majority of democratizers will continue even after a backslide

• Important to consolidate democracy

Moving away from Moving away from authoritarianism…?authoritarianism…?

• Transitions are periods of political instability• New democracies are usually flawed systems• Different outcomes:• 1) weak democracy• 2) hybrid regime• 3) instability• 4) state failure• Big risks during transition periods• 55% of all democratization efforts have had some

“backsliding”

BackslidingBacksliding• Most vulnerable backsliding time is within

5-6 yearso Democratic institutions have are not yet

consolidated

• Can take place 15-20 years after initial democratization efforts

What traps do What traps do democratizers face?democratizers face?

1. Repressive and unwilling regime2. Lack of functional state structures3. Entrenched autocratic political and

economic interests4. Meeting the expectations of the masses5. Defending the authenticity of the

transition to democracy

1. Repressive and 1. Repressive and unwilling regimeunwilling regime

• Climax of an event (economic crisis) can bring people onto the streets and force change

• Regime weakened and destabilized • Continued loyalty of army or other security forces• Can use brutal repression on protests• 3 possible outcomes:

o 1) Successful crackdown o 2) Unsuccessful crackdown, protests continue, possible

negotiationo 3) Unsuccessful crackdown, more violence, state collapse

• Not such a risk for Myanmar/Burma

2. Lack of functional 2. Lack of functional state structuresstate structures

• Authoritarian regime with a functional state helps stability during a period of transition

• Authoritarian regime with a dysfunctional state seriously weakens stability during a period of transition

• Predatory authoritarian regimes create dysfunctional stateso Poor state institutionso Stole resources and state wealtho Failed to provide education, health, infrastructureo Deep corruption, mistrust and social fragmentation

2. Lack of functional 2. Lack of functional state structuresstate structures

• Scenario 1: o Repressive, predatory regime & very dysfunctional stateo Strong opposition with charismatic leadership, disciplined &

loyal activistso POSSIBLE OUTCOME:

• 1) Opposition will probably gain popularity & momentum• 2) Opposition will be tested as it governs a weak state

• Scenario 2:o Repressive, predatory regime & very dysfunctional stateo Weak, disunited, and fragmented opposition & weak or absent

civil societyo POSSIBLE OUTCOME:

• 1) Nobody will be popular enough to set political agenda• 2) Weakness of the state will cause more fragmentation• 3) Limited governing ability• 4) Disillusionment among citizens caused by instability and

dysfunction

2. Lack of functional 2. Lack of functional state structuresstate structures

• Risk for Myanmar / Burma? Yes• Predatory regime • Dysfunctional state• Deep social and political divisions• Could undermine the reform process• Suppressed problems could come up and

fuel more dissatisfaction.• United opposition?• Who can govern a divided society with a

dysfunctional state at the foundation?

3. Entrenched 3. Entrenched autocratic political and autocratic political and

economic interestseconomic interests• Privileged (elites and security sector “old

guard”) will resist threats of transition • Enjoyed jobs, political appointments,

contracts, educational opportunities, etc.• “Old guard” starts the transition from a better

position• Big players in hybrid regimes• Use their resources to take advantage of any

disunity in opposition

4. Meeting the 4. Meeting the expectations of the expectations of the

massesmasses• Jobs, services, stronger economy, increased

governing competence, commitment to democratic practice.

• Transition euphoria democratic disillusionment

• Trap A. Lasting economic troubles (dismantling the old economic system)

• Trap B. Economic expectations• Trap C. Risk of natural resource curse• Trap D. Incompetent governance by

democratizers

4. Trap A. Lasting economic 4. Trap A. Lasting economic

troubles (dismantling the old troubles (dismantling the old

economic system)economic system)• Short run (first 5-8

years) transition economy often gets worse

• Debt• Poor infrastructure• Clientelism /

patronage• Inefficient tax system• Crony monopolies• Weak rule of law

4. Trap B. Economic expectations4. Trap B. Economic expectations

• Expectation of economic improvement• BUT, expected growth requires a

competent, confident and responsible government that can put the wellbeing of its citizens first.

• Countries moving from autocracy usually have weak institutions and little economic data

• Competitive neighbors? Competitive advantage?

4. Trap C. Risk of natural 4. Trap C. Risk of natural

resource curseresource curse• Struggle to remove the cronyism and corruption

involved in natural resource extraction remains• Consequences of resource curse made worse by:

o Weak state institutionso Heavy reliance by state economy on natural resources o High poverty rateo Weak regional competitive advantage in other sectorso Internal conflict

• Big benefits in controlling the state• This can continue the zero-sum mentality

4. Trap D. Incompetent 4. Trap D. Incompetent

governance by democratizers governance by democratizers • Relevant for

oppositions that can win elections and form government

• Expectation of governing competence

• Expectation of increased democratic governance

• Possibility of opposition abusing their power

5. Defending the 5. Defending the authenticity of the authenticity of the

transitiontransition• Defend against divergent ideological, religious or

economic interests.• Consensus building and compromising• Trap A. Lack of consensus about the

character of the state • Trap B. Rise of nationalism (sometimes

extreme nationalism)• Trap C. Manipulation by non-democratic

political forces pushing for social or populist ideology.

5. Trap A. Lack of consensus 5. Trap A. Lack of consensus

about the character of the state about the character of the state • Under suppression, differences can grow

stronger• Lack of consensus can quickly become an

open problem• Demands are made over political design of

the state conflict• Serious issue in Myanmar / Burma• Question should be answered in the public

space by brave, open and visionary intellectual talks

5. Trap B. Rise of nationalism 5. Trap B. Rise of nationalism

(sometimes extreme nationalism) (sometimes extreme nationalism) • Opening can lead to grievances being voiced• Lack of strong political institutions means

political players look elsewhere to gain political support

• Nationalism in divided societies can further split society

• More difficult to form broader and more inclusive political coalitions and civic grass root organizations

• Media is more easily fractured• Social institutions assume political functions

5. Trap B. Rise of nationalism 5. Trap B. Rise of nationalism

(sometimes extreme nationalism) (sometimes extreme nationalism) • Very relevant possible trap for Myanmar /

Burma• Mobilization of ethnic nationalism can result in:• 1) Large number of political parties • 2) Underdeveloped civil society• 3) Media is controlled by elite (they continue to

spread language of nationalism)• Extreme ethnic nationalism can be

manipulated to destabilize democratization and reassert central authority and the “relative calm” of autocracy

5. Trap C. Manipulation by non-5. Trap C. Manipulation by non-

democratic political forces pushing democratic political forces pushing

for social or populist ideology. for social or populist ideology.

• Capture of state by undemocratic groups• Democratic groups are sidelined (not

cohesive or as easy to gain public support)• Civil society, media, and public access to

information and communications technology are essential in creating accountability when democratic institutions are weak.

How to Avoid Traps?How to Avoid Traps?• 1) Civil society must uphold human

rights and democratic norms• 2) Media must act independently• 3) Avoid extremism (create an open

civic environment)• CSOs are diverse, flexible, innovative