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Markets for Transparent Electronics Materials

February 15th, 2012

NanoMarkets, LC

© 2012 NanoMarkets, LC

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About NanoMarkets

• NanoMarkets provides industry analysis of emerging markets in energy and electronics enabled by new developments in materials science. We have been covering novel and advanced electronics materials for eight years

• Our work includes market, company and technology analysis, market forecasting and due diligence.

• NanoMarkets’ offerings include reports, custom consulting, seminars/webinars and in-house training. NanoMarkets is based in U.S., with extensive contacts all over the world.

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NanoMarkets’ Recent Reports Related to Transparent Electronics

• Transparent Electronics Markets

• Oxide TFT Markets (forthcoming)

• BIPV glass (forthcoming)

• Conductive Coatings in Electronics and Energy Markets

• Markets for Transparent Conductors in Touch Screen Sensors

• The Markets for Flexible Glass

• Emerging Markets for Non-ITO Transparent Conductive Oxides

• Markets for Silver-Based Transparent Conductors

• Transparent Conductor Markets

• Next-Generation Smart Windows: Materials and Markets

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Current state of

technology

Next three years Future evolution

Displays Simple LED and EL

signage. CRT and LED/LCD

HUDs

Emergence of AM LCD and

OLED displays for signage and

HUDs

Large markets may evolve for

transparent displays for

augmented reality. Transparent

displays also used in telepresence

Self-tinting

windows

Niche market using

expensive electrochromic

and thermochromic

modules

More effective materials and

energy cost concerns boost

sales

Novel product directions for smart

windows including integration of

PV, lighting and self-cleaning

categories

Transparent solar

panels

Established niche, mainly

involving glazed c-Si

panels

Full integration of glass and

CIGS, OPV and DSC. Possible

role for CdTe. Part of rapidly

growing BIPV market

New absorber materials likely to

have a role

Transparent

sensors

A few R&D projects Need for transparent large-area sensors for military/security and

ubiquitous computing applications

A Provisional Roadmap for Transparent Electronics

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0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

$ M

illio

ns

Forecast of Transparent Electronics Products by Application

Sensors

Solar panels

SmartwindowsDisplays

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Preliminary Forecast of Selected Transparent Electronics Materials by

Type ($Millions)

2012 2015 2019

Oxide electronics materials for

transparent displays 12.8 55.7 205.9

Active materials for smart

windows 15.0 42.8 121.3

Absorber layer materials for

transparent solar panels 77.2 226.6 784.7

Transparent sensor materials 0.2 0.5 2.0

TOTAL 105.0 325.5 1,113.8

* Consider also impact on TFTs and transparent coatings outside of TE

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Transparent Displays and the End of the LCD Revolution

• The LCD market is almost saturated. What are the next big things?

• Could transparent displays be one of them? Currently mostly use EL for signage and CRTs for HUDs. Some LED use.

• Updated technology, especially OLEDs (and some LCD) for signage from Samsung and LG

• But active interest for augmented reality on Apple devices and there is also backing from Microsoft.

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Windows, Transparency and the Construction Bust

• Construction industry still in the doldrums. Windows industry rethinking strategies to emphasize high value-added and more energy efficiency

• Increasing value added could include self-dimming windows, windows that are also lights or displays or PV panels.

• These developments would seem to need novel active coatings that go beyond what is currently available in terms of functionality and performance.

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Slowdown in Solar

• Solar is slowing down and will slow down further as subsidization for the industry becomes increasingly challenged

• Solar industry will have to embrace new economics and BIPV offers this. BIPV glass offers this with transparency for skylights, facades, canopies

• In need of greater integration and more transparent materials with improved efficiencies. Mostly glazed in c-Si today. Goal would be materials that are at least 50 percent transparent

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New Directions for ITO Alternative Firms

• ITO replacement is now a hot market, but breaking into the mainstream LCD market is proving difficult. Penetration of touch-screen sensor market has been successful, but does not generate sufficient revenues to justify investment

• Could transparent electronics present another market for alternative TCs to get into while waiting for LCDs to open up?

• Interest from large firms including Dow, Kodak, Linde, Saint-Gobain and Sumitomo as well as start ups

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Transparent Semiconductors for the Future

• Not easy to find materials that are good semiconductors for TFTs and are also transparent

• Three types of research program might provide this (1) organic electronics, (2) efforts to develop electronics using nanomaterials or nanostructures of some kind and (3) metallic oxide semiconductors (most advanced)

• Mostly ZnO n-type TFTs today. In search of the p-type transparent conductor

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Influence on the market What to watch for in the future

1. Samsung Prime mover in TE. Has history of

trying out new materials faster

than other display firms

Will Samsung’s next-generation TE products take

off? Will the materials this company uses become

industry standard?

2. Apple Has patents for transparent

displays to provide access to

augmented reality. Seems likely to

add this to iPad and iPhone

Apple could be the first to provide a sophisticated

consumer product with a transparent display.

Apple single-handedly turned Pro Cap touch-

screen technology into a major industry

3. Saint-

Gobain

Glass firm with influence in smart

windows/transparent conductors

Saint-Gobain has not specifically identified TE as a

target market, but seem to be creeping into this

space. Is well positioned for further growth

NanoMarkets’ Top Seven Firms to Watch in Transparent Electronics Materials (1)

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4. Cambrios The first transparent

conductive nanomaterial firm

to announce a real world

customer.

Not yet a supplier of materials to the

TE business, but its materials could

have some interesting TE applications

5. 3M Has extensive portfolio of

transparent conductive

oxides/films

In a position to be a major supplier of

materials to a future transparent

electronics sector.

6. Corning Not specifically active yet The leading display glass firm. Likely to

be a key supplier of substrates for TE

7. Kurt J.

Lesker

Carrying out R&D work on a

number of novel TCOs

This work has considerable relevance

to the future of TEs and may make

Lesker a player

NanoMarkets’ Top Seven Firms to Watch in Transparent Electronics Materials (2)

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A Summing Up

• Three major large-area product sectors – displays, windows and solar panels – are in crisis and transparent electronics may be part of the solution

• This could mean that the market requires a new transparent electronics materials set: conductors, semiconductors, dielectrics, optoelectronic materials.

• New market for emerging TCs while waiting for mainstream LCD market to open up

• Semiconductor efforts led by TCOs, but OE and nanomaterials a possibility. Complementary technologies needed.

• $1.1 billion materials market in 2019

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