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Transport Market Monitor
Capacity and price indices remain at extreme levels
Edition: 33 (November 2017)
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 2
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© Capgemini/TRANSPOREON 2017
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 3
Summary
This is the 33. edition of the Transport Market Monitor. It outlines
developments in European road transport rates and includes the
figures of the third quarter of 2017.
● The capacity index increased by 2.6% to an index level of
67.4 in Q3 2017. Compared to Q3 2016, the capacity index
is 20.5% lower.
● The price index increased by 0.6% in Q3 2017 (index
101.8). When comparing to the index level of the previous
year, Q3 2016, we see that the price index increased by
7.0%.
● The diesel index declined to an index of 75.3. This index is
3.0% lower than Q2 2017.
● The European Trade Flow Index is expected to drop by
5.7% in Q3 2017.
These are the conclusions of the Transport Market Monitor by
TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting, a quarterly
publication, which aims to track transport market dynamics.
This report is the thirty-third edition of the
Transport Market Monitor. Each quarter, a
new edition will outline the developments
during the past three months and reviews
additional themes in transportation.
All indices in this report are based on the
logistics platform TRANSPOREON, which
handles a yearly transport volume
(different truck types, mainly FTL and
LTL), covering all European countries.
Information is anonymously exported from
the platform and aggregately analyzed by
Capgemini Consulting.
The figures in the Transport Market
Monitor date back to January 2008: the
earliest point of measurement of the index
figures. For all indices, the average
figures of the six months period January
2008 till June 2008 (H1 2008) have been
set as the basis for comparison (Index
100).
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 4
Capacity and price indices remain on the same levels
This section of the Transport Market Monitor outlines the
quarterly developments of the price and capacity index, since the
beginning of the measurements in 2008 until the third quarter of
2017.
The price index (see Figure 1) increased in Q3 2017 to an index
of 101.8, an increase of 0.6% compared to Q2 2017 (index
101.2). Compared to the price index of Q3 2016, the price index
increased by 7.0%.
In Q3 2017, the capacity index increased by 2.6% to 67.4
compared to the previous quarter (index 65.8). In Q3 2016 the
capacity index was 84.9, which means the index value for Q3
2017 is 20.6% lower than last year’s. This is the first time in five
years that we observe an increasing price and capacity in Q3 in
comparison to Q2.
Figure 1: Price and capacity index, quarterly (Q3 2011 – Q3 2017)
For the price and capacity indices, the average figures of the six months period January 2008 till June 2008
have been set as the basis for comparison (Index 100). Figure 1 shows the indices of the last 25 quarters.
101.2 100.6
92.7
99.4 100.098.2
90.2
100.6 100.0101.2
91.5
100.0 99.498.2
94.5
104.9
100.6
98.2
91.5
96.395.1 94.5
86.0
101.2 101.8
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Q311 Q112 Q312 Q113 Q313 Q114 Q314 Q115 Q315 Q116 Q316 Q117 Q317
Cap
ac
ity i
nd
ex
Pri
ce
in
de
x
Price and capacity index (quarterly figures)
Price index Capacity index
The price index is calculated by
comparing the average price per
kilometer over time.
The Capacity Index is an indicator for
“available capacity”, the ratio between
absolute demand and capacity. The
capacity index is calculated by comparing
the average number of bids in response
to a transport request over time.
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 5
Price and capacity indices diverge at quarter-end
This section of the Transport Market Monitor depicts the monthly developments in the price and capacity index
over the last twelve months. In Q3 2017, the capacity continued the marginal growth as observed in Q2 2017.
This came to a sudden halt in the last month of the quarter, ending up at the lowest value of the past years
(index 56.7). This is 21.8% lower than the capacity index in September 2016. The price index followed a more
fluctuating pattern, but ended up at a year-high index value of 107.3 which is 9.3% higher in comparison to
September 2016.
Figure 2: Price and capacity index, monthly (Oct 2016 – Sept 2017)
97.6
91.5
96.2
87.8
82.9
86.6
100.699.4
103.7
101.2
96.3
107.3
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Oct16 Nov16 Dec16 Jan17 Feb17 Mar17 Apr17 May17 Jun17 Jul17 Aug17 Sep17
Cap
ac
ity i
nd
ex
Pri
ce
in
de
x
Price and capacity index (month by month)
Price index Capacity index
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 6
Figure 3 compares the monthly development of the price index over the last twelve months, to the same period
one year before.
In Q3 2017, the price index followed the same trend as it did in Q3 2016. The index values for the last three
months, however, are on average 7.1 points higher in comparison to last year. Since the start of the TMM
measurement (January 2008), we have not observed a higher price index than we do now, in September 2017.
Figure 3: Price index comparison, monthly (Oct 2015 – Sept 2017)
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Pri
ce
in
de
x
Price index comparison
Oct. '15 - Sept. '16 (Price index same period, last year) Oct. '16 - Sept. '17 (Price index last 12 months)
-3.0-4.3 -3.2
-5.5-4.3
-6.7
7.3
-0.6
7.9 7.34.9
9.1
-10
-5
0
5
10
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Difference in index points
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 7
Figure 4 compares the monthly development of the capacity index during the previous twelve months to the
same period one year before. As also seen with the price index, the capacity index follows a similar pattern in
comparison to last year’s third quarter. A month-on-month comparison shows that the index value is lower for
each month in Q3 2017, with an average of 17.9 points per month. The capacity index value in September
(56.7) is the lowest we have observed since the beginning of TMM measurements (January 2008).
Figure 4: Capacity index comparison, monthly (Oct 2015 – Sept 2017)
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Ca
pa
cit
y i
nd
ex
Capacity index comparison
Oct. '15 – Sept. '16 (Capacity index same period, last year) Oct. '16 – Sept. '17 (Capacity index last 12 months)
-3.7
6.1
24.8
1.4
-4.0
9.0
-5.1
-29.2
-20.2 -17.8 -15.8-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Difference in indexpoints
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 8
Industry focus
General economic conditions apply to most industries, but trends
may be stronger or weaker in individual industries. Analysis of the
price index by the type of industry identifies these differences,
visualized in Figure 5.
The growth observed in Q2 2017 continues in the third quarter for
all industries. Over the last years, the indices would show little or
negative growth when comparing the second to the third quarter.
This year’s indices break with the trend, showing more significant
growth. The construction materials industry price index increased
by 1.1% to 95.7 points. In the timber industry the price index
increased by 4.8% to an index of 106.6, whereas the
paperboard/print index increased by 0.7% to an index of 104.1.
Figure 5: Price index for different industries (Q1 2008 – Q3 2017)
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
120.0
Q108 Q308 Q109 Q309 Q110 Q310 Q111 Q311 Q112 Q312 Q113 Q313 Q114 Q314 Q115 Q315 Q116 Q316 Q117 Q317
Pri
ce
in
de
x
Price index Construction materials
Construction Materials
70.0
80.0
90.0
100.0
110.0
120.0
Q108 Q308 Q109 Q309 Q110 Q310 Q111 Q311 Q112 Q312 Q113 Q313 Q114 Q314 Q115 Q315 Q116 Q316 Q117 Q317
Pri
ce
in
de
x
Price index Timber
Timber
70
80
90
100
110
120
Q108 Q308 Q109 Q309 Q110 Q310 Q111 Q311 Q112 Q312 Q113 Q313 Q114 Q314 Q115 Q315 Q116 Q316 Q117 Q317
Pri
ce
in
de
x
Price index Paperboard / Print
Paperboard / Print
The TRANSPOREON platform handles
transport for almost all industries. For the
Transport Market Monitor, three different
industry types have been analyzed
individually.
Each chart in Figure 5 depicts the price
development for that particular industry,
indexed against the industry baseline
(H1 2008).
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 9
Price difference decreases further
This section outlines transport dynamics, by analyzing the price difference between the highest and the lowest
price offered per transport order. Figure 6 illustrates the price difference between offers, and the development
of the capacity index. In the third quarter of 2017, the price difference level decreased to 17.6%. This is different
to the trend observed in previous years, where the Q3 price index would increase in comparison to Q2.
Figure 6: Capacity index and price difference (Q3 2011 – Q3 2017)
The price difference is an average figure. In general, price differences increase with the distance to be
travelled (see TMM, edition 1). Figure 6 shows the differences of the last 25 quarters.
14%
15%
20%
14%
16%
19%
22%
17% 18% 17%
21%
18% 18% 18%19%
16% 17%
19%
21%
18%19%
21%20%
18%18%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
Q311 Q112 Q312 Q113 Q313 Q114 Q314 Q115 Q315 Q116 Q316 Q117 Q317
Dif
fere
nc
e b
etw
ee
n o
ffe
rs
Cap
ac
ity i
nd
ex
Capacity index and price difference (quarterly)
Price difference between offers Capacity index
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 10
Diesel index declines for second quarter in a row
This section compares the price index with the diesel index (see
Figure 7). In general there is a positive correlation between the
diesel index and the price index, clearly indicating the impact of
diesel prices on transportation costs and consequently prices.
In Q2 2017 the diesel index decreased by 3.0% to an index value
of 75.3. As also observed in the previous quarter, the declining
diesel index is paired with an increase in the price index.
Compared to Q3 2016, this year’s diesel index is 7.7% higher.
Figure 7: Price index and diesel index (Q3 2011 – Q3 2017)
For the price and capacity indices, the average figures of the six months period January 2008 till June 2008
have been set as the basis for comparison (Index 100). Figure 7 shows the indices of the last 25 quarters.
101.2 100.6
92.7
99.4 10098.2
90.2
100.6 100.0101.2
91.5
100.0 99.498.2
94.5
104.9
100.6
98.2
91.5
96.395.1 94.5
86.0
101.2 101.8
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Q311 Q112 Q312 Q113 Q313 Q114 Q314 Q115 Q315 Q116 Q316 Q117 Q317
Die
sel i
nd
ex
Pri
ce
in
de
x
Price and diesel index (Quarterly)
Price index Diesel index
0%
5% 6%
-3%
2% 1%
-3%-6%
2%
-2% -2% -1% -1%
-10%
-16%
8%
-12%
0%
-19%
16%
2%
8%10%
-6%-3%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
Change in diesel index (%) vs. previous quarter
For the diesel index, the average figures of
the six month period January 2008 till June
2008 have been set as the basis for
comparison (index 100), similar to the
other indices used in this report.
The calculation of the diesel index is based
on diesel price figures across the
European Union, obtained from the
European Commission via
http://ec.europa.eu/.
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 11
European Trade Flow Index expected to drop in Q3
This section features the European Trade Flow Index (ETFI). The
ETFI is derived from the Capgemini Consulting’s Global Trade
Flow Index, a measure of worldwide trade. The volume of trade
is a strong driver for transport demand and corresponding prices.
In Q3 2017 trade volumes in Europe are expected to decrease
by 5.7% to €2038 bln compared to Q2 2017 (€2162 bln). This
could be the third quarter in a row with declining or negative
growth, as well as the largest decrease since the start of the ETFI
in Q4 2011. The trade volume in Q2 2017 has decreased by
3.0%, compared to Q1 2017. In comparison with the same period
a year ago, in Q3 2016, the Q3 2017 volume is expected to
decrease by 2.3%.
Figure 8: European Trade Flow Index (Q4 2011 – Q3 2017E)
1.942
1.9951.979
2.001
1.9611.975
1.9521.970 1.976
1.989 1.9902.008
2.018
2.047
2.102
2.074 2.077
2.037
2.0722.085
2.2102.229
2.162
2.038
2.7%
-0.8%
1.1%
-2.0%
0.8%
-1.2%
0.9%0.3%
0.7%0.1%
0.9%0.5%
1.4%
2.7%
-1.3%
0.2%
-2.0%
1.7%
0.6%
6.0%
0.8%
-3.0%
-5.7%
-7%
-2%
3%
8%
13%
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
2050
2100
2150
2200
2250
2300
Gro
wth
of
trad
e (
qu
art
er
on
qu
art
er)
To
tal tr
ad
e v
alu
e (
in b
illi
on
s)
Value (Billion €) Growth (%)
Capgemini Consulting’s Global Trade Flow
Index tracks the trade of goods and
services by quarter based on an analysis
of a number of trade and market-related
parameters from the latest available official
data (related to the import and export of
goods and services) from national
agencies. It is tailored to the European
market for this report, providing the
European Trade Flow Index.
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 12
Additional services related to the TMM
Transport Market Developments
A portfolio of offerings
Transport Market Radar
Information on the most recent price and capacity developments in the European transport market
Monthly dashboard about transports in Europe and within Germany Industry focus for transports within Germany Please find more information here
Transport Market Monitor
Provides key insights in the European transport market with the quarterly overview of the most important trends
Quarterly report Please find more information here
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 13
Next edition
This edition looked at the price and capacity developments since the beginning of the Transport Market Monitor
in 2008. It outlined the historical low capacity index and historical high price index in September 2017, in
comparison with the beginning of TMM measurements (H1 2008).
The next edition, number 34, will include the figures for Q4 2017. It will be published in February 2018.
About the Transport Market Monitor
The aim of the Transport Market Monitor is to provide insights into the development of transport prices, and
other transport market dynamics to logistics executives and other interest groups. It is a joint initiative of
TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting.
The indices in the Monitor are based on the logistics platform TRANSPOREON, on which shippers tender and
process their transport needs to their preferred transport partners on a daily basis. The platform handles a yearly
transport volume of over €2 billion in all European countries. Anonymously, information is unlocked from the
platform and analyzed by Capgemini Consulting. This results in monthly indices which are published on a
quarterly basis. In addition to each publication of the Monitor, one or more market themes are discussed,
supported by detailed analysis.
TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting can help you to find the right strategy between static and dynamic
prices. Additional information about both companies and their service offerings is available upon request.
This report is available at http://www.transportmarketmonitor.com. More information about the products and
services of both TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting can be obtained via the contact information
provided at the back of this report.
_______________________________________________________________________________________
TMM-team:
Capgemini Consulting: Thomas Fortgens (NL), Ilka Hendriksen (NL), Sven de Jong (NL), Erik van Dort (NL),
Josi Gwizdz (DE), Florentin Braunewell (DE)
TRANSPOREON: Oliver Kahrs (DE), Katja Hufeland (DE), Monika Stahl (DE)
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 14
About Capgemini and TRANSPOREON
About Capgemini
About TRANSPOREON
A global leader in consulting and technology
services, Capgemini is at the forefront of innovation
to address the entire breadth of clients’
opportunities in the evolving world of cloud, digital
and platforms. Building on its strong 50-year
heritage and deep industry-specific expertise,
Capgemini enables organizations to realize their
business ambitions through an array of services
from strategy to operations. Capgemini is driven by
the conviction that the business value of technology
comes from and through people. It is a multicultural
company of 200,000 team members in over 40
countries. The Group reported 2016 global
revenues of EUR 12.5 billion.
Visit us at www.capgemini.com. People matter,
results count.
Capgemini Consulting is the global strategy and
transformation consulting organization of the
Capgemini Group, specializing in advising and
supporting enterprises in significant transformation,
from innovative strategy to execution and with an
unstinting focus on results. With the new digital
economy creating significant disruptions and
opportunities, the global team of 3,500 talented
individuals work with leading companies and
governments to master Digital Transformation,
drawing on their understanding of the digital
economy and leadership in business transformation
and organizational change.
Find out more at: http://www.capgemini-
consulting.com/
The logistics platform TRANSPOREON connects
shippers from industry & trading companies with
carriers, drivers & consignees – and optimizes and
accelerates logistics processes. Users of the
platform receive web-based SaaS (Software-as-a-
Service) solutions as electronic transport
assignment, time slot management and transport
visibility. TRANSPOREON allows reducing dispatch
and freight costs, while minimizing waiting times
during loading and unloading.
Currently more than 1.000 industry and trading
companies, more than 65,000 carriers and more than
100,000 users from 100 countries are connected via
the TRANSPOREON platforms. The platforms as
well as the customer service are available in 24
languages.
Operating company of the logistics platform
TRANSPOREON is the international
TRANSPOREON Group. Other solutions the group is
offering are the tender platform TICONTRACT and
the retail logistics platform MERCAREON. More than
510 employees are on site throughout Europe, the
U.S.A., Russia and Asia.
Learn more about us at: www.transporeon.com
Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting 15
Capgemini Consulting
TRANSPOREON
For more information, contact:
Benelux:
Erik van Dort
Tel: +31 30 689 71 19
E-mail: [email protected]
Germany/Switzerland:
Ralph Schneider-Maul
Tel: +49 221 9126 44182
E-mail: [email protected]
UK: Steve Wilson
Tel: +44 870 366 0236
E-mail: [email protected]
Italy:
Via: Erik van Dort
Tel: +31 30 689 71 19
E-mail: [email protected]
Austria:
Ralph Schneider-Maul
Tel: +49 221 9126 44182
E-mail: [email protected]
France:
Gerald Murat
Tel: +33 6 78 90 68 64
E-mail: [email protected]
Nordic Countries:
Michael Eriksson
Tel: +46 702 57 51 95
E-mail: [email protected]
Poland:
Via: Erik van Dort
Tel: +31 30 689 71 19
E-mail: [email protected]
www.capgemini-consulting.com
For more information, contact:
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Tel: + 43 (0) 664 1966 542
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Benelux:
Michel Haenen
Tel: +31 6 123 95 308
E-mail: [email protected]
Germany/Switzerland and Nordic countries:
Raphael Triemer
Tel: + 49 731 16906 167
E-mail: [email protected]
UK:
Michel Haenen
Tel: +31 6 123 95 308
E-mail: [email protected]
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Roberto Ostili
Tel: +39 050 552168
E-mail: [email protected]
Austria:
Armin Musija
Tel: + 43 (0) 664 1966 542
E-mail: [email protected]
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Alexia Narvor
Tel: +33 1 39 21 97 29
E-mail: [email protected]
Spain:
Miriam Ribas
Tel: + 34 977 6200 39
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Maria Mitrofanova
Tel: +7 499 918 67 36
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Tibor Batki
Tel: + 36 30 495 4616
E-mail: [email protected]
www.transporeon.com
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Transport Market Monitor is a joint initiative from TRANSPOREON and Capgemini Consulting
