Transport

Political/Operational Transport Costs

billion ton miles per year

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600

water

rail

truck

cost per year in $b

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

water

rail

truck

cost per ton-mile

0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25

water

rail

truck

• Oceans are open territory (assuming no storms)

• Rail lines have very limited access points

• Primary road/rail advantage is speed

Locomotion/Infrastructure

Costs

cost of transporter (k)

0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000

container ship

rail engine

semi

cost per container-mile (dollars)

0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.16

container ship

rail engine

semi

miles per transporter life (k)

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000

container ship

rail engine

semi

• Road/Rail both ~$5m per mile

• Roads never used to capacity

• Both require regular replacement

• Water is free• Canals ridiculously

expensive

Cheat Sheet

• Operational costs for water– 1/2 that of rail, 1/14 that of road, 1/100 that of air

• Locomotion costs for water– 1/20 that of rail, 1/70 that of road

• Infrastructure costs for water are….free– Really hard to beat free

Implications 1• U.S. military

– U.S. military in general is naval based– Nearly all other militaries are exclusively truck

based– ‘Lily pads’ might not be the best idea (x100 for

air)

• Multiple cargo transfers are a killer– India-Iran-Russia-Europe route uses four– U.S. shipments to Afghanistan use truck– Potential non-Russia bypass uses seven

Implications 2

• If you don’t have navigable rivers, odds are you’re hosed economically– Northern Europe water/rail mix– Coastal China water/rail mix (but little river usage)– Chinese inland, Southern Europe, and Central Asia

truck/rail mix– Russia primarily rail– Greece and Africa primarily truck

• U.S. economy– Greater Mississippi + Great Lakes + Intercoastal – Two oceans, bitch