Transport Sector Performance Indicators:

Sri Lanka Existing Situation

Amal S. KumarageProfessor, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Moratuwa

Chairman, National Transport Commissionkumarage@sltnet.lk

21st April 05

Overview of Land Transport & the Economy- 2003

GDP – Rs 1,400 billion

Value Addition to Economy Rs 178 billion (12%)

Employment Direct 700,000 (11% of national)

Government Capital Allocation Rs 300 bn

Government Expenditure on Transport Sector Highways Rs 13.5 bn (4.5%) Transport Rs 6.5 bn (2%)

Sri Lanka Transport: The Demand

Population 19 million Distribution 70% in rural areas Metro Areas – Colombo 3 million Town Centres – 50,000 to 300,000 GDP per capita US$ 980 Employment (Agricultural based 45%,

industries 25%, services 30%)

Sri Lanka Transport: The Supply

Transport Infrastructure Transport Services

Transport Infrastructure

Highways Expressways -None National Highways -11,760 kms Provincial Highways -15,743 kms Rural Roads -68,843 kms Footpaths & Tracks – estimated at 120,000 kms

Railways 1,449 kms

Navigable Inland Waterways – less than 100 kms

1st Cent. BC

Road Network based on connectivity of Anuradhapura to ports in the North-East and connection between the

kingdoms and places of worship mostly in dry zone

11th Century

Coastal roads in the southwest after migration of people

17th Century Dutch Canal System in southwest develops it further

 Year RDA

Provincial

AccessUrban

AccessRural Total

1815 Commencement of Road Building by British

1905 6,024 6,024

1959

7,034  

 12,070

19,104

1990

10,447

14,916 2,791 66,054

94,208

2002

11,760

15,743 5,200 77,800

110,503

Ancient

Modern

Motor Vehicle Fleet

Estimated Operational Vehicle Fleet by Province and Type Province Motor

Cycles Three Wheelers

Cars & Vans

Lorries Buses Land Vehicles

Other Total

Western 192,194 177,004 53,634 15,351 11,981 N/A 450,164 Central 21,491 11,712 21,403 12,718 4,196 2,780 N/A 74,300 Southern 63,678 12,444 15,478 9,092 3,006 11,534 N/A 115,232 North East 41,952 3,183 2,542 1,107 6,379 856 56,019 North Western

82,932 5,752 18,276 12,135 3,037 12,620 685 135,437

North Central

25,114 1,581 4,457 3,658 914 5,612 5 41,341

S’gamuwa 25,242 6,922 9,961 7,350 2,996 3,127 394 55,992 Uva 12,307 1,457 4,389 4,147 1,267 3,180 6 26,753 Total 464,910 294,019 105,276 31,874 57,213 1,946 955,238

1978/79

1981/821986/87

1996/97

Motor Car/Van

Motor Cycle

Bicycle

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1978/79 1981/82 1986/87 1996/97

Bicycle 21.5 31.5 34.0 41.5

Motor Cycle 0.9 2.4 5.3 12.0

Motor Car/Van 1.9 2.3 3.0 3.4

Vehicle Ownership per 100 households (Central Bank, Consumer Finance Surveys)

Sector Vehicle Estimated Operational

Fleet

Estimated Kilometres Operated

(mn)

Estimated Person Kms

Carried (mn)

Estimated Ton-Kms Carried (mn)

Bicycles

2,000,000 2000 2,100 Road (NMT) Other N/ a N/ a N/ a

Motor Cycles

539,094 2,738 3286 Cars 135,050 1,304 2869 Utility Vehicles

186,717 2,616 8894 130 Buses 24,360 981 38410 Trucks 66,499 1,498 1498 1498 Land vehicles

76,225 280 363 70

Roads (Motorised)

Three Wheelers

75,233 1,432 1,432 Sub Total Road 3,103,178 12,849 58,852 1698 Rail 3,103 Total Road and Rail 63,964

Modal Share of Land Transport- 2001

National Modal Share - 2003Mode Vehicle Kms

Operated (mn)

Passenger Kms

Carried (mn)

Ton Kms Carried

(mn)

Bus 966 (08%) 45,407 (68%)

Private Vehicles 7,861 (64%) 15,831 (24%)

Railways 11 (00%) 3,600 (5%) 102 (02%)

Three Wheelers 1,548 (13%) 1,161 (2%)

Lorry/Land Veh. 1,813 (15%) 907 (1%) 4,532 (97%)

Water Transport 3 (00%) 32 (01%)

Total 12,202 (100%) 66,906 (100%) 4,666 (100%)

7580

9296

Para Transit

Railway

Private

Public Bus

010

20

30

40

50

60

70

80%

Sha

re

Years

Priorities in Land Transport

Reduce Total Transport & Externality Cost for Economy.

Improve Quality/Service Levels of Public Transport.

Reduce Financial Burden of Public Transport on Treasury through Strategic Reform of SLR and Cluster Cos.

Managing Road Space & Traffic Flow by Levying charges to recover actual cost of Road Use

Reduce the burden from road accidents and environmental impacts

Description of Sub Sectors

Buses Railways Three Wheelers Trucking Private Transport Rural Transport

Bus Transport In Sri Lanka

Private Individual Operators (1907)

Formation of Companies (1942)

Formation of Companies?

Nationalization (1958)

Re-entry of Private Individual Operators (1978)

Impact of Bus Transport on Sri Lankan Society & Economy

50 billion passenger kms per year 65% of all travel

30 billion Rupees in economic value 3% of GDP

10 million trips per day 2 trips per household per day

80 % households use the bus at least 1 time per week

Also 84,000 persons directly employed

What are the basic problems facing the industry?

Inadequate fares Inadequate investment in buses? Weak regulation Lack of Enforcement Weak Market Structure Unmanageable number of operators Abandonment of professional practices poorly managed

industry

Although regulated fares, and the single bus ownership have been the most quoted reasons for this state of affairs, recent study and documentation reveals that a host of regulatory lapses are in fact the primary cause of this situation.

Performance Indicators- Buses Quality – Load Factor, Journey Speeds, Directness, Availability during

unprofitable times, routes. Reliability

Efficiency: Bus Utilisation, Revenue/Cost per km.

Fare – Affordability to lower income deciles.

Cost to Society: Net Subsidy

Safety- crew standards, accidents, bus standards

Convenience & Comfort- value additions.

Niche Markets: Schools, Offices, Industries served

Infrastructure: Terminals, Stops, Busways

Railway Transport

Fully regulated since inception

Problem areas Lack of commercial/passenger interest Pre-occupation with employee rights High financial losses

Abortive attempts on unbundling or private investment/management

Performance Indicators- Trains Quality – Load Factor, Journey Speeds.

Efficiency: Track & Rolling Stock Utilization

Fare – Affordability to lower income deciles.

Cost to Society: subsidies less externality benefits

Safety- track & rolling stock standards,

Convenience & Comfort- value additions.

Niche Markets: Freight, Tourism

Infrastructure: Land Utilisation, Station Development

Three Wheelers

Popularity rising due to deterioration of public transport

Primary reason being attractive as means of self-employment

Presently 142,000 vehicles, but transport 2% of share. Problem areas:

Cartelisation Inefficiency

Performance Indicators- Three Wheelers

Quantity & Efficiency: Vehicle Utilisation

Fare – Affordability to middle income deciles.

Cost to Society: pollution and parking costs

Trucking

Has always been fully deregulated

Efficient in corporate settings

In informal settings, poor productivity, high fares, externalities

Trucking is subsidized by the Govt.

Performance Indicators- Trucks

Efficiency: Vehicle Utilization

Cost to shippers.

Cost to Society: externalities due to pavement damage, congestion, pollution

Safety- vehicle and crew standards,

Infrastructure: Logistics Centres, Warehousing

Private Vehicles

Estimated Operational Vehicle Fleet by Province and Type Province Motor

Cycles Three Wheelers

Cars & Vans

Lorries Buses Land Vehicles

Other Total

Western 192,194 177,004 53,634 15,351 11,981 N/A 450,164 Central 21,491 11,712 21,403 12,718 4,196 2,780 N/A 74,300 Southern 63,678 12,444 15,478 9,092 3,006 11,534 N/A 115,232 North East 41,952 3,183 2,542 1,107 6,379 856 56,019 North Western

82,932 5,752 18,276 12,135 3,037 12,620 685 135,437

North Central

25,114 1,581 4,457 3,658 914 5,612 5 41,341

S’gamuwa 25,242 6,922 9,961 7,350 2,996 3,127 394 55,992 Uva 12,307 1,457 4,389 4,147 1,267 3,180 6 26,753 Total 464,910 294,019 105,276 31,874 57,213 1,946 955,238

Vehicles/Traffic in Colombo City

140,000 vehicle enter the city daily

1,000,000 passengers enter the city daily

64% arrive by bus (takes 25% of road space)

10% arrive by railway

26% arrive by private transport (takes 65% of road space)

The Problems of Road Safety Costs 2200+ lives, disables 4,000+, injures a further

12,000. Damage only accidents 38,848. Total accidents 57,618

Only 700 (4%) receive any compensation.

Economic Cost of accidents Rs. 10 billion ++

Risk of death due to road accident has risen from 1 in 115 (1977) to 1 in 51 (2002)

Performance Indicators- Private Vehicles

Efficiency: Network Speed, Vehicle Occupancy

Cost to users as VOC.

Cost to Society: externalities due to congestion, pollution and accidents

Safety & Environment- vehicle and crew standards,

Infrastructure: User Separation, Intersection Control

Performance Indicators Rural Transport

Accessibility (to basic services, employment opportunities and markets)

Ownership of vehicles

Affordability of services

Performance Indicators- Overall Transport Efficiency: Network Speeds (rail, roads, bus)

Cost to Government: Net Subsidies

Resource Utilization: Energy Efficiency, Land Utilization,

Affordability of different modes to different sectors of society

Cost to Society: inputs plus externalities due to congestion, pollution and accidents

Employment Generation

Safety & Environment- minimum standards,

THANK YOU

Economic Cost of Transport 2003

Direct Operating Costs Railways Rs 4,700 mn Buses Rs 36,288 mn Three Wheelers Rs 13,230 mn Private Vehicles Rs 71,875 mn Goods Transport Rs 61,000 mn TOTAL Rs 178,393 mn

Cost of Externalities Time Value > 30 km/hr Rs 77,500 mn Time Value <30km/hr Rs 16,250 mn Unpaid Accident Costs Rs 10,000 mn Environmental Rs 2,000 mn TOTAL Rs. 105,750 mn

Fuel Consumption-2003

Diesel 2,700 mn litres – Rs. 91,000 mn Petrol 400 mn litres – Rs. 12,000 mn

Fuel Cost for railways - Rs 3,500 mn Fuel Cost for buses - Rs. 3,000 mn

10% of fuel for railways/buses – but they carry 73% of passengers.

Over the last few months all these costs have increased by around 60%.

Economic Direct Costs in Land Transport (2003)

PASSENGER Vehicles Veh Kms Pax Kms Cost Rs. Cost per Pax Km

Railways - - 4,258 6,500 1.53

Buses 25,000 1,296 49,112 36,288 0.73

3Wheeler-Taxi 167,764 1,890 1,328 13,230 9.96

Private Vehs. 880,034 10,125 17,784 71,875 2.73 MC

5.26 C/V

FREIGHT Vehicles Veh Kms Ton Kms Cost Rs.

Railway - - 128

Trucks/Vans 173,643 3,000 5286

Government Expenditure 2003

Expenditure Roads – National Rs.11,300 mn Roads – Provincial Rs. 2,151 mn Railways Rs 3,500 mn Buses Rs 3,000 mnTOTAL Rs 20,000 mn

Income Vehicle taxes etc. Rs 12,000 mn Import Taxes Rs 5,000 mn Taxes on Fuel Rs 5,000 mn Registration/Annual License Rs 2,000 mn TOTAL Rs 24,000 mn