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© 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved. Dan Bowermaster Program Manager, Electric Transportation [email protected] Office: +1 650 855 8524 Mobile: +1 650 701 5099 Foro de Transporte Limpio en Latinoamérica Bogotá, Colombia 22 September 2016 Transportation Electrification: The Plug-in Electric Vehicle Market, Environmental Impact, and Technology

Transportation Electrification: The Plug-in Electric ......Cumulative US Plug-in Car Sales to Date > 497,000 2016 YTD up 29% over 2015 0 25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 125,000 150,000

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Page 1: Transportation Electrification: The Plug-in Electric ......Cumulative US Plug-in Car Sales to Date > 497,000 2016 YTD up 29% over 2015 0 25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 125,000 150,000

© 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Dan Bowermaster

Program Manager, Electric Transportation

[email protected]

Office: +1 650 855 8524

Mobile: +1 650 701 5099

Foro de Transporte Limpio en

Latinoamérica

Bogotá, Colombia

22 September 2016

Transportation Electrification:

The Plug-in Electric Vehicle

Market, Environmental

Impact, and Technology

Page 2: Transportation Electrification: The Plug-in Electric ......Cumulative US Plug-in Car Sales to Date > 497,000 2016 YTD up 29% over 2015 0 25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 125,000 150,000

2 © 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

EPRI’s Mission

Advancing safe, reliable, affordable, and environmentally

responsible electricity for society through global collaboration, thought

leadership, and science & technology innovation

Page 3: Transportation Electrification: The Plug-in Electric ......Cumulative US Plug-in Car Sales to Date > 497,000 2016 YTD up 29% over 2015 0 25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 125,000 150,000

3 © 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Three Key Aspects of EPRI

Collaborative Bring together scientists,

engineers, academic researchers,

and industry experts

Independent Objective, scientifically based

results address reliability,

efficiency, affordability, health,

safety, and the environment

Nonprofit Chartered to serve the

public benefit

Page 4: Transportation Electrification: The Plug-in Electric ......Cumulative US Plug-in Car Sales to Date > 497,000 2016 YTD up 29% over 2015 0 25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 125,000 150,000

4 © 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

What is Electric Transportation? A Plug-in Electric

Vehicle (PEV)?

• Car

• Truck

• Bus

• Marine

• Airport

• Forklift

• Marine

• Motorcycle

• Scooter

Page 5: Transportation Electrification: The Plug-in Electric ......Cumulative US Plug-in Car Sales to Date > 497,000 2016 YTD up 29% over 2015 0 25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 125,000 150,000

5 © 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Cumulative US Plug-in Car Sales to Date > 497,000

2016 YTD up 29% over 2015

0

25,000

50,000

75,000

100,000

125,000

150,000

175,000

200,000

225,000

250,000

275,000

300,000

325,000

350,000

375,000

400,000

425,000

450,000

475,000

500,000

De

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Feb

-11

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-14

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Nissan GM Toyota Ford BMW

Tesla OTHER PHEV TOTAL BEV TOTAL

Page 6: Transportation Electrification: The Plug-in Electric ......Cumulative US Plug-in Car Sales to Date > 497,000 2016 YTD up 29% over 2015 0 25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 125,000 150,000

6 © 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Customer choice is increasing

~38 new PEVs coming in 2016-2020

Page 7: Transportation Electrification: The Plug-in Electric ......Cumulative US Plug-in Car Sales to Date > 497,000 2016 YTD up 29% over 2015 0 25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 125,000 150,000

7 © 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Customer choice increasing with 38 PEVs announced

to hit market from 2016 – 2020

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

PEV Market Launch by Category (2010-2020)

Hatchback City Car Sedan Luxury Sedan

Coupe/Sports Car SUV/Crossover Minivan/Wagon

Page 8: Transportation Electrification: The Plug-in Electric ......Cumulative US Plug-in Car Sales to Date > 497,000 2016 YTD up 29% over 2015 0 25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 125,000 150,000

8 © 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

The electric grid is clean and getting cleaner – 15, 70, 50

-15%

-70%

-50%

Page 9: Transportation Electrification: The Plug-in Electric ......Cumulative US Plug-in Car Sales to Date > 497,000 2016 YTD up 29% over 2015 0 25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 125,000 150,000

9 © 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Electricity is also a clean transportation fuel

Reduction in GHG due to electrifying

transportation through 2050

Improvements to air quality (human

health) due to electrifying transportation

through 2030

Page 10: Transportation Electrification: The Plug-in Electric ......Cumulative US Plug-in Car Sales to Date > 497,000 2016 YTD up 29% over 2015 0 25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 125,000 150,000

10 © 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

But what about those headlines that claim electric

vehicles are bad for the environment?

Page 11: Transportation Electrification: The Plug-in Electric ......Cumulative US Plug-in Car Sales to Date > 497,000 2016 YTD up 29% over 2015 0 25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 125,000 150,000

11 © 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Charging infrastructure is not like getting gas, but more

like charging your phone or laptop

Page 12: Transportation Electrification: The Plug-in Electric ......Cumulative US Plug-in Car Sales to Date > 497,000 2016 YTD up 29% over 2015 0 25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 125,000 150,000

12 © 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

PEV charging infrastructure is increasing

Page 13: Transportation Electrification: The Plug-in Electric ......Cumulative US Plug-in Car Sales to Date > 497,000 2016 YTD up 29% over 2015 0 25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 125,000 150,000

13 © 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

But most public charging networks remain fragmented

Page 14: Transportation Electrification: The Plug-in Electric ......Cumulative US Plug-in Car Sales to Date > 497,000 2016 YTD up 29% over 2015 0 25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 125,000 150,000

14 © 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

To help the PEV market scale, need to make the complex both

simple and easy for the customer

OVGIP Intends to Resolve Business and Operational Rules with Multiple

Stakeholders

OVGIP

OEM

Servers

ISO/IEC 15118

3rd Party

Aggregator

Page 15: Transportation Electrification: The Plug-in Electric ......Cumulative US Plug-in Car Sales to Date > 497,000 2016 YTD up 29% over 2015 0 25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 125,000 150,000

15 © 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

What’s next?

Now and in the future

Autonomous driving

– Tesla, Apple, Google

High power charging

– Current 50 kW; future 150 kW; goal 350 kW

Long-distance (~200 mile) mass-market battery electric

vehicles

– Chevy Bolt

– Tesla Model 3

– Gen 2 Nissan LEAF

Ownership Models /

Transportation On-Demand

– Car share /

– Lyft / Uber

Page 16: Transportation Electrification: The Plug-in Electric ......Cumulative US Plug-in Car Sales to Date > 497,000 2016 YTD up 29% over 2015 0 25,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 125,000 150,000

16 © 2016 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.

Together…Shaping the Future of Electricity