Trends in the Political Ideology of the Cuban-American Voter

Evidence from the Cuba Poll

1991-2011

1

2

population culture Social organization

Institutions

Demographic Changes

• Ideologies• Norms• Values• Beliefs

• Groups• Classes• Stratification

• Politics• Religious• Kinship• Education• Economy

Social Dimensions of Change in Cuban Miami

Next Few Minutes…• Trends in Cuban Migration, Residency and

Naturalization.

• How these trends have shaped Miami’s Latino demographics.

• How these trends have shaped Cuban political ideology on US/Cuba relations.

• Final note on Cuban-American political exceptionalism.

• You should walk away with a sense of the changing nature of Cuban voter opinion towards US/Cuba Relations and the forces that are ineluctably creating the changes. 3

Cubans Receiving Permanent Resident Status by Decades

1920-1929

1930-1939

1940-1949

1959-1959

1960-1969

1970-1979

1980-1989

1990-1999

2000-2009

2010-2012

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

12,769 10,64125,976

73,221

202,030

256,497

132,552159,037

271,742

102,644

4

Cubans Naturalized2003-2012

5

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

7,698

11,236 11,227

21,481

15,394

39,871

24,891

14,050

21,071

31,244

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Comparative Rates of Naturalization of Selected Latino Groups

2003-2012

60

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

39,871

8,794

22,693

33,351

7,404

ColombiaCubaDominican RepublicHondurasVenezuela

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Latino Origin PopulationPercent of Total Population (2% or more)

2010

Colom

bians

Cubans

Domin

icans

Hon

duran

Mex

ican

Nicara

guan

Puerto

Rica

n0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

5%

35%

2% 2% 2%4% 4%

7

Miami2,496,435

Non-Hispanic African descent425,650

17%

Other Hispanic

31%

“Anglo”383,551

15%

Cuban860,000

35%

<1994559,0065%

1994>

Haitian 120,000

AA

Car150,000

CA212,542

SA273,542

>1994301,000

35% Other142,000

1990 Polls vs 2000 PollsAverage of Responses

Support for Embargo and Support for Dialogue

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20120%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%65000000%

85600000%

65000000%

85600000%Embargo Support

Dialogue Support

Cuban Pop: 650,000 (2000 Census)

Cuban Pop: 856,000(2010 Census)

9

Strongly/Mostly Favor Strongly/Mostly Oppose0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

40%

51%

65%

35%

58%

43%

Mar-91Oct-91Jun-93Mar-95Jun-97Oct-00Mar-04Mar-07Sep-11

Establishing a Dialogue

10

Favor0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

87%

78%

62%

45%

56%

Mar-91Oct-91Jun-93Mar-95Jun-97Oct-00Mar-04Mar-07Nov-08Sep-11

Favor Continuing Embargo

11

Do you think that the United States should continue the trade embargo with Cuba or

should the United States end the trade embargo and permit normal trade with Cuba?

All Am

erica

ns

Republic

ans

Democ

rats

Indep

enden

ts0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

48%

59%

38%

49%

Continue EmbargoEnd the Embargo

12

Source: WPO 2009

1990 Polls vs 2000 PollsAverage of Responses

Support for Selling Medicines and Unrestricted Travel

1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 20120%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

65000000%

57%65000000%

85600000%

Unrestricted Travel

Selling Medicine

UnrestrictedTravel

Selling Medicine

Cuban Pop: 650,000

Cuban Pop: 856,000

13

Strongly Favor Mostly Favor Mostly Oppose Strongly Oppose0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

31%

19%

8%

33%

29%27%

12%

33%

48%

27%

9%

16%

Jun-93Mar-95Jun-97Oct-00Mar-04Mar-0711-Sep

Allow companies to sell medicine to Cuba?

14

Strongly Favor Mostly Favor Mostly Oppose Strongly Oppose0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

15%

8% 10%

55%

42%

23%

11%

24%

Jun-93Mar-95Jun-97Oct-00Mar-04Mar-0711-Sep

Allow companies to sell food to Cuba?

15

Favor0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

44%

50%

40%37%

53%

46%

55%

68%

57%Mar-91Oct-91Jun-93Mar-95Oct-00Mar-04Mar-078-Nov11-Sep

Should unrestricted travel from U.S. to Cuba be allowed (for all Americans)?

16

Should unrestricted travel by all Americans to Cuba be allowed or not?

YES, ALLOWED NO, NOT ALLOWED0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

49%

75%

25%

73%

27%

63%

37%

TotalRegisteredAfter 9418-44Cuban-Am

17

Do you favor or oppose the U.S. re-establishing diplomatic relations with Cuba?

favor oppose0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

58%

42%

51% 49%

70%

30%

76%

24%

71%

29%

TotalRegisteredAfter 9418-44Cuban-Am

18

Do you favor or oppose continuing the U.S. embargo of Cuba?

FAVOR OPPOSE0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

56%

44%

64%

36%

43%

57%53%

47%

TotalRegisteredAfter 9418-44Cuban-Am

19

Republican Democrat Independent0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

70%

16% 14%

52%

27%

21%

56%

20%23%

Mar-91Oct-91Mar-04Mar-07Mar-0811-Sep

Registered as Republican, Democrat or Independent?

20

Voter RegistrationCubans in Miami

2011

non-

citize

n

citize

n not

regi

stere

d

citize

n reg

ister

ed0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

27%

5%

67%59%

6%

35%39%

7%

54%

6%

93%

TotalAfter 9418-44Cuban-Am

21

Among Multiple Identities- What is The Primary Identification among Latino Sub-Groups

Latino sub-groups in Florida

American National Origin

Pan-ethnic(Latino)

Cuban 27.0% 24.9% 38.4%

Puerto Rican 21.1 28.9 46.4

Mexican 7.8 36.4 47.3

Dominican 12.8 32.1 44.9

South American 24.5 32.7 34.7

Central American

22.5 43.7 29.6

Statistically significant @.055

LATINO GROUP PERCEPTIONS OF SOCIO-ECONOMIC COMMONALITIES

Thinking about issues like job opportunities, education or income, how much do your ethnic subgroup have in common with other Latinos or Hispanics? Would you say [ethnic subgroup] share a lot in common, some things in common, little in common, or nothing in common with other Latinos?

LATINO SUB-GROUPS IN FLORIDA

NONE/ LITTLE SOME/ A LOT

Cubans 18.2% 71.2%

Puerto Ricans 13.2 80.2

Mexicans 19.4 72.1

Dominicans 14.1 80.7

South Americans 15.3 77.6

Central Americans 15.5 80.3

NOT STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT

LATINO GROUP PERCEPTIONS OF POLITICAL COMMONALITIES

Now thinking about things like government services and employment, political power and representation, how much do [ethnic subgroup] have in common with other Hispanics or Latinos? Would you say [ethnic subgroup] share a lot in common, some things in common, little in common, or nothing in common with other

LATINO SUB-GROUPS IN FLORIDA

NONE/ LITTLE SOME/ A LOT

Cubans 18.6% 78.7%

Puerto Ricans 22.3 71.0

Mexicans 27.9 60.5

Dominicans 23.0 67.9

South Americans 34.7 56.2

Central Americans 33.8 59.2

Statistically significant @<.05