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Trident after the election
John AinslieCoordinator Scottish CND
Presentation for Scottish CND Post-Election ConferenceSTUC 15 May 2010
Trident after the election• Trident Replacement 2010-15
• Trident and the deficit
• US Trident Replacement programme
• New political situation
MoD Timeline in 2006
Dec 2006 Exchange of letters Blair/Bush
2007-09 Concept Phase
(Sep 2009)
Initial Gate
2009-14 Design and Long Lead Items
2014 Main Gate
2014-24 Production
2024 In Service Date
Defence Board 26 Nov 2009
Defence Board 26 Nov 2009
Defence Board 26 Nov 2009
“The Board also took stock of progress on the successor submarine programme, and the challenges that remained before it could be initially considered by the Investment Approvals Board next July.”
MoD Timeline in 2010
Dec 2006 US/UK exchange of letters
2007-10 Concept Phase
July 2010 Initial Gate2010-14 Design and Long Lead Items
2014 Main Gate
2014-24 Production
2024 In Service Date
MoD Timeline in 2010
Dec 2006 US/UK exchange of letters
2007-10 Concept Phase
July 2010 Initial Gate
2010-14 Design and Long Lead Items
2014 Main Gate
2014-24 Production
2024 In Service Date
2010-15 workload• 2010 – start initial design• 2012 – start detailed design• Design workload peaks in 2013/14:
Full TimeEquivalent designworkloadfor successorsubmarine(RAND)
2010-15 workload• reactor design• fuel core development• 2012 – long lead item production
2010-15 workload
Common Missile Compartment (Joint US/UK programme; work all in
US)
2010-15 workload• Aldermaston modernisation
• Future warhead decision (due 2010-15)
US W76-1warhead modernisation
Main Gate decision
Dec 2006 US/UK exchange of letters
2007-10 Concept Phase
July 2010 Initial Gate
2010-14 Design and Long Lead Items
2014 Main Gate2014-24 Production
2024 In Service Date
Trident and the deficit
Annual spending on nuclear weapons has doubled from £1 billion in 2003 to £2 billion in 2010
Trident and the deficit
Increasing workload in the design phase
Annual costs could rise to £3 billion by 2014
Trident and the deficit
£1 billion per year will be spent in 2010-13modernising Aldermaston
Trident and the deficit
The financial plan is to reduce the national debtby 2031 – within this timescale over £60 billion willbe spent on the nuclear weapons programme.
Trident replacement in the US
US Navy plan
• 12 new submarines
• In service 2027 – 2080
• Build cost $80 billion
Trident replacement in the US
“When that program really begins to ramp up, in the latter part of this decade, it will suck all the air out of the Navy’s shipbuilding program”
Statement to Congress March 2010.
Robert GatesDefence Secretary
Trident replacement in the US
“the new ballistic submarine alone would begin to eat up the lion’s share of the Navy’s shipbuilding resources
… we have to ask whether the nation can really afford .. $7 billion submarines”
Speech to Navy League 3 May 2010.
Robert GatesDefence Secretary
Trident replacement in the US
Gene TaylorChair, Seapower Committee, House of Representatives.
“We have a looming need to replace the Ohio Class strategic missile submarine, but doing so may cripple the Navy shipbuilding budget.”
Seapower Committee 20 January 2010
Trident replacement in the US
Gene TaylorChair, Seapower Committee, House of Representatives.
$672 million SSBN(X) budget halved
“.. until the Secretary of Defense reports to the committee the guidance which shaped the results of the analysis of alternatives ... and the rationale associated with construction of a new class of submarines capable of carrying the current weapon vice development of a smaller missile to fit an existing submarine”
Seapower Committee Budget Mark-up 13 May 2010
Trident replacement in the US
• Submarine unit cost doubled from $3.4 to $7 bn
• The US submarine programme is not ring-fenced
• The US Navy may review its options
• Fewer US submarines – UK unit cost will increase
• A delay in the US programme will affect the UK
New Political Situation – TV debates
“I don't think we can either justify or afford the like-for-like replacement of the Cold War nuclear missile system, the Trident missile system, over the next 25 years. It will cost you, all of us, £100 billion. We can't afford it.”
“You want to hold a review, and you want to exclude the one big issue which should be at the heart of that review.”
Nick Clegg, TV debates15 & 22 April 2010
New Political Situation - Coalition
The Government will be committed to the maintenance of Britain’s nuclear deterrent
and have agreed that the renewal of Trident should be scrutinised to ensure value for money.
Liberal Democrats will continue to make the case for alternatives
Coalition Agreement 12 May 2010
New Political Situation - Coalition
“The Labour and Conservative policy of like-for-like replacement of Trident is absurd “
”Any review which fails to ask the big questions will be a waste of time. In particular, the Government must think again about replacing Trident.”
Nick Harvey MP (now Armed Forces Minister)
New Political Situation - Ideas
• Include Trident in the Defence Review
• Delay the Initial Gate to allow a study of “value for money” and alternatives
• Publish the costs
• Lobby Lib Dems
• Continue to build a broad coalition
