TRIM Daily - trimegah.com · Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) down by 28 poins or 0.5% to 5419 yesterday. Index movers were mostly driven by consumer finance and basic industry. Total

TRIM DAILY PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com 1

Macro: BPS will publish trade balance, we expect USD755mn Vs. consensus

USD589mn. Strong trade balance data should help curb the market’s slide

(JCI already down 3 days in a row). We continue to suggest big banks—top

picks BBNI and BBRI. We also publish a note on ACES—Sell, downgrading TP

from 750 to 670 (3% downside from current price). ACES reported disap-

pointing SSSG and we do not expect a turnaround in short-term.

TRIM Daily

TRIM Highlights

April 15, 2015

Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) down by 28 poins or 0.5% to 5419 yesterday. Index movers were mostly driven by consumer finance and basic industry. Total transaction value was Rp5.5bn. IDX recorded RP516bn net sell by foreign investors. We believe JCI to rebound today with 5389-5469 range after closing the price gap at 5397 yesterday. We do not expect a sustained rebound however, and risk remains of market reversing to negative territory

again tomorrow.

Technical Market View

U.S retail sales grew 0.9% MoM for March 2015, after contracted by -0.6% in the previous month. This was inline with consensus estimate which expect to see 1.1% MoM growth.

Global Wrap

Technical analysis: trading picks

JCI 5,419.1

Global Indices

Reksa Dana Trimegah Asset Management

Dual Listing (NYSE) Others

(USD) (Rp) Chg %

43.7 14,172 0.40 0.9TLKM

Change -0.52%

Transaction Volume (m) 5,195

Transaction Value (Rpbn) 5,504

Mkt Cap (Rptr) 5,466

Market 2015 P/E (x) 14.1

Market Div. Yield (%) 2.4%

Price Chg %

Dow Jones 18,036.7 59.7 0.3

Nasdaq 4,977.3 -11.0 -0.2

Nikkei 19,908.7 3.2 0.0

ST Times 3,521.1 36.7 1.1

FTSE 7,075.3 11.0 0.2

Hang Seng 27,561.5 -454.8 -1.6

NAB Chg %

Trim Kapital 9,585.9 -67 -0.7

Trim Kapital + 3,436.0 -27.9 -0.8

Trim Syariah SHM 1,697.4 -15.5 -0.9

Tram Consumption +1,543.5 -15.3 -1.0

Trim Komb 2 2,084.1 -14.5 -0.7

Trim Syariah B 2,420.1 -17.4 -0.7

Trim Dana Stabil 2,225.8 -0.0 -0.0

Trim Dana Tetap 2 1,781.2 0.0 0.0

Tram PDPT USD 1.1 -0.0 -0.0

Tram Reguler INC 994.7 0.0 0.0

Tram Strategic Fund 1,195.7 -4.4 -0.4

Trim Kas 2 1,154.0 0.2 0.0

Chg %

USD IDR 12,984 -4 -0.0

10 yr Indo Govr bond (%) 7.34 0.1 1.2

10 yr US govt bond (%) 1.9 -0.03 -1.8

Spread (%) 5.45 0.12 3.0

EIDO 27.4 0.1 0.5

Foreign YtD (USDmn) 461 -39 -8

Stock Price Rating Reason

BMRI 11850 Buy BMRI remains on a long term bullish pattern with the potential technical rebound today on the range of 11775-12200

BBRI 12975 Buy BBRI remains strong with potential upside in the range of 12725-13250 for today.

LPKR 1445 Buy

LPKR is a long term bullish, it formed a white long candle with increasing transaction vol-umes, indicates further upward movement for today with support and resistance levels of 1385-1480

SCMA 3425 Buy SCMA today is expected to continue its strengthening trend and trade in 3300-3625 range

APLN 420 Buy

After decreasing to 420 in three days, APLN formed a black Marubozu candle. Today APLN are expect to rebound within the range of 411-434

ASII 8200 Buy

ASII remains on the long term bullish pat-tern. However, ASII is a Sell as we believe it would form a short term bearish pattern. Today’s trading range is 7950-8400

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 2

News of the Day

Economy: Maintain trade surplus, yet CAD still

haunting

The central statistic agency will announce trade data

Today (15 April). We expect Indonesia will maintain trade

balance surplus for the third consecutive months this

year, USD 755mn (Consensus : USD 589mn) on the back

of slowing oil import offsetting dampened export demand.

There has been a slight ore export ban relaxation allow-

ing iron sand and zirconium to be exported effective per

Mar’ 15. Despite Indonesia booking a big trade surplus in

1Q15, service account deficit (around USD 2.5bn deficit

per quarter) and income repatriation (around USD 6.5b

deficit per quarter) still becomes a strong drag to CAD.

Thus we see current account deficit to linger this quarter.

Assuming trade surplus to stand at USD 755mn in March

or a USD 2.2bn accumulative in 1Q15, CAD should trans-

late to 2.3% of GDP, widened from 2.0% of GDP in 1Q14

y e t i m p r o v e d f r o m 2 . 8 % i n

4Q14. ([email protected])

Banking: BI is loosening the upper limit of banks

LDR

BI will issue a regulation to loosen the LDR of banks

which has provided loans to micro and SME sectors. The

abovementioned BI regulation will also cover the LDR

definition expansion and will be published on May 2015.

The regulation itself is meant to push 15-17% loan

growth this year. Source: Investor Daily

([email protected])

BBNI & BMRI: overseas expansion updates

The Indonesia’s Financial Services Authority (OJK) will

sign the reciprocal agreement with the South Korean

Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) next week, says the

Chief of Commissioner, Muliaman D Hadad. This will

enable BBNI to expand to South Korea soon. Meanwhile,

its competitor BMRI has not obtained permit yet from

Malaysian Central Bank (BNM) to expand in the neigh-

bouring country. BMRI is required to have minimum

MYR300mn for branch opening and would face the limita-

tions of opening other branches and ATMs in Malaysia.

Source: Kontan ([email protected])

DILD: Retain Rp.3tr target despite halted reclama-

tion project.

Intiland did not reduce their 2015 marketing sales de-

spite reclamation land permit dispute due to the project

not being allocated towards this year’s marketing sales

projection. While awaiting permit confirmation from the

central government, DILD will allocate their resources to

other projects, such as Kebon Melati mixed-use develop-

ment. Source: Kontan ([email protected])

CTRA: Subsidiary booked Rp.1.5tr in marketing sales,

inline with target.

PT Ciputra Residence booked Rp.1.5tr in marketing sales

through JV project with Hanson International Tbk (MYRX)

in Maja, Banten. The project occupies 2,000Ha of land, and

will built in 9 phases, with 10,000 units launched in its first

development phase. Price ranges from Rp110mn – 180mn

for the 72sm land type, and Rp.260mn – 400mn for the

72sm – 96sm real estate type. The company claims that

the travel time is approximately 90 menits to Tanah Abang

via train. The project follows Permenpera No.7/2013 re-

garding building type composition ratio, where for each 1

luxury house, 2 middle-segment and 3 low-segment hous-

es must be built. Source: Bisnis Indonesia

([email protected])

INPP: Non-preemptive rights issue held with aims

for 25.9% PlIN acquisition.

PT Indonesia Paradise Tbk will perform a non-preemptive

rights issue, worth Rp.2.8tr through 8.6mn new shares,

with 82% of the fresh funds to be used for Plaza Indonesia

Realy tbk’s 25.9% share of equity, priced at Rp.2,500 per

u n i t . S o u r c e : I n v e s t o r D a i l y

([email protected])

JPFA: cuts 2015 CAPEX by 58%

JPFA cuts its 2015 CAPEX by ~58% to be Rp750bn, follow-

ing the oversupply condition of DOCs. In 2H14, DOC’s

supplies were higher than the demand itself, resulting with

a declining DOC price to reach Rp1.500/chicken. Currently,

DOC price is already at Rp4.000/chicken, as the industry

players have cut their production level by 20%. JPFA will

allocate its CAPEX for animal feed (53%), breeding farm

(23%), and feed mill (24%). For 2015F, the company will

be more affected from IDR fluctuation, given that the

company has US$225mn, which due in 2018. Source:

Kontan ([email protected])

AALI: Plan to build 2 factories worth of USD24mn

AALI intends to build 2 CPO factories (construction time 12

-18 months) with cost USD10-12mn/factory. The two new

factories (Central Sulawesi and South Kalimantan) are

expected to increase total capacity by 6.3% to 1,525 tons

per hour in 2016E. For this year, the company targets

lower new planted area (< 10K ha; 37.5%YoY) and will

focus to intensification and maintenance of the the palm

trees. 2015E capex is Rp3tr. Source: Kontan

([email protected])


News of the Day

TGKA: booked Rp45.7bn net profit in 1Q15

In 1Q15, TGKA booked a Rp45.7bn net profit , or grew

significantly by 33.2% from the previous period. Mean-

while, revenue stood at Rp2.36tr (+9% YoY), while gross

profit increased by +16.2% to come to Rp247.8bn. For

2015F, TGKA allocates Rp35.79bn for its CAPEX, which

will be used for buying some factory’s equipments and

machines, and renovating its buildings and buying some

vehicles. Moreover, the company plans to distribute

Rp86.79bn cash dividend, translating to Rp94.5/share.

Source: Kontan ([email protected])

Steel import duty to increase to 15% from 0%-5%

The Ministry of Industry has given a draft proposal for

import duty increase for steel products to 15% from 0%-

15% in order to protect to reduce the burden of steel

players to take part in the nation’s infrastructure devel-

opment. The implementation is expected to kick in 2Q15.

S o u r c e : B i s n i s I n d o n e s i a

([email protected])

Comment:

This should be positive for Krakatau Steel (KS) as it

would alleviate fierce competition against the foreign

steel players dumping into the nation’s market. We think

that steel pipe players such as Spindo (ISSP IJ), Bakrie

Pipe and other steel pipe players will continue increasing

its raw material purchase exposure to KRAS and reduce

its steel import portion. ISSP may benefit if the raw

material purchased from KRAS is at a discount to its

foreign steel competitors.


Table

Indo Market PE vs Regional (Weekly)

Indo Market PE vs 10yr Bond Yield

Oil Price (Brent), Coal Price (Newcastle), Gold

Foreign Fund Flow in last 5 & 30 days

5yr Bond Yield Indo (USD) vs US Bond Yield

CPO Price, Soybean Price (both 1m Futures)

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

2010

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

(x)

Weekly Hang Seng Singapore Thailand Philippines Malaysia Indonesia

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Apr-

14

Apr-

14

May-14

May-14

Jun-1

4

Jun-1

4

Jul-

14

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Aug-14

Sep-1

4

Sep-1

4

Sep-1

4

Oct-

14

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Jan-15

Feb-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Mar-

15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

(%) Bond Yield US Ind 5yr Bond Yield Indo in USD

-106 -52

1,166

47 19215

-291

162

2,773

26

-10

1,624

(500)

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

IND

ON

ESIA

PH

ILIP

PIN

ES

SO

UTH

KO

REA

TH

AIL

AN

D

VIE

TN

AM

IND

IA

(USDmn) 5 Days 30 Days

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

Apr-

14

May-14

May-14

Jun-1

4

Jul-

14

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Sep-1

4

Sep-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

(USD/ Troy oz.)(USD)

Brent Crude Oil (bbl) (LHS) Coal (mt) (LHS) Gold (RHS)

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Apr-

14

May-14

Jun-1

4

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Sep-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

(USD Bushels)(MYR Tons)

CPO Malaysia (LHS) Soybean (RHS)

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

14.0

14.5

15.0

Apr-

14

May-

14

Jun-

14

Jul-

14

Aug-

14

Sep-

14

Oct-

14

Nov-

14

Dec-

14

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

(%)(X) JCI PE (LHS) Indo 10Yr Bond Yield (RHS)


Table

INCO, ANTM vs Nickel price (LME)

Coal Price (Newcastle) vs Coal Sector

TINS vs Tin price (LME)

ANTM vs Gold price

CPO Price (1m Futures in Malaysia) vs CPO Sector

GIAA vs Brent Crude Oil

150

175

200

225

250

275

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

Apr-

14

May-14

Jun-1

4

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Sep-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

(USD/MT)Coal (LHS) COAL Sector (RHS)

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100

2,300

2,500

2,700

2,900

Apr-

14

May-14

May-14

Jun-1

4

Jul-

14

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Sep-1

4

Sep-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

(MYR / Ton)

CPO Malaysia (LHS) CPO Sector (RHS)

-

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

Apr-

14

May-14

May-14

Jun-1

4

Jul-

14

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Sep-1

4

Sep-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

(USD /MT)(Rp)

INCO (LHS) ANTM (LHS) Nickel LME (RHS)

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

Apr-

14

May-14

May-14

Jun-1

4

Jul-

14

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Sep-1

4

Sep-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

(USD troy oz.)(Rp) ANTM (LHS) Gold (RHS)

15,000

16,000

17,000

18,000

19,000

20,000

21,000

22,000

23,000

24,000

25,000

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

1,700

Apr-

14

May-14

May-14

Jun-1

4

Jul-

14

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Sep-1

4

Sep-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

(USD/MT)(Rp) TINS (LHS) Tin LME (RHS)

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

Apr-

14

May-14

May-14

Jun-1

4

Jul-

14

Jul-

14

Aug-14

Sep-1

4

Sep-1

4

Oct-

14

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

(USD bbl)(Rp)

GIAA (LHS) Crude Oil Brent (RHS)


World Economic Calendar

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior

4/10/2015 US Import Price Index MoM Mar 0.3 -0.2 -3.1

CH CPI YoY (%) Mar 1.3 -- 1.4

CH PPI YoY (%) Mar -4.8 -- -4.8

CH New Yuan Loans CNY (USD bn) Mar 1040 -- 1020

CH Money Supply M2 YoY (%) Mar 12.3 -- 12.5

4/11/2015 US Monthly Budget Statement (USD bn) Mar -43 -- -36.9

04/13/2015 CH Trade Balance (USD mn) Mar 40.55 -- 60.6

CH Exports YoY (%) Mar 10 --

48.3

CH Imports YoY (%) Mar -10.5 -- -20.5

4/14/2015 US Retail Sales Advance MoM (%) Mar 1.1 0.9 -0.6

US Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM (%) Mar 0.7 0.4 -0.1

US Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas (%) Mar 0.6 0.5 -0.2

US PPI Final Demand MoM (%) Mar 0.2 0.2 -0.5

US PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (%) Mar 0.1 0.2 -0.5

US PPI Final Demand YoY (%) Mar -0.9 -0.8 -0.6

US PPI Ex Food and Energy YoY (%) Mar 0.8 0.8 0.7

US NFIB Small Business Optimism Mar 98 95.2 98

ID Bank Indonesia Reference Rate 14-Apr -- -- 7.50%

EC Industrial Production SA MoM Feb 7 -- -0.10%

4/15/2015 US MBA Mortgage Applications 10-Apr -- -- --

US Empire Manufacturing Apr 7.17 -- 6.9

US Industrial Production MoM Mar -0.3 -- 0.10%

US Capacity Utilization Mar 78.6 -- 78.90%

ID Exports YoY (%) Mar 14.9 -- -16.02%

ID Trade Balance (USD mn) Mar 589 -- 738

EC ECB Main Refinancing Rate (%) 15-Apr 0.05 -- 0.05

EC ECB Deposit Facility Rate (%) 15-Apr -0.2 -- -0.2

EC ECB Marginal Lending Facility (%) 15-Apr 0.3 -- 0.3

CH Retail Sales YoY (%) Mar 10.9 -- 10.7

CH Industrial Production YoY (%) Mar 7 -- --

CH Industrial Production YTD YoY (%) Mar 6.9 -- 6.8

CH GDP YoY 1Q 7 -- 7.3

4/16/2015 US Net Long-term TIC Flows Feb -- -- -2.72

US Total Net TIC Flows Feb -- -- 8.83

US Housing Starts Mar 1.04 -- 897

US Building Permits Mar 1.08 -- 1.09

US Initial Jobless Claims 11-Apr 280000 -- 281000

US Continuing Claims 4-Apr 2.32 -- 2.30

US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 12-Apr -- -- 47.9

US Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Apr 6 -- 5

4/17/2015 US CPI MoM Mar 0.30% -- 0.20%

US CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM Mar 0.20% -- 0.20%

US CPI YoY Mar 0% -- 0%

US U. of Mich. Sentiment Apr P 94 -- 93

US Leading Index Mar 0.30% -- 0.20%

EC CPI MoM Mar 1.10% -- 0.60%

EC CPI YoY Mar F -0.10% -- -0.10%

EC CPI Core YoY Mar F 0.60% -- 0.60%

4/20/2015 US Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Mar -- -- -0.11

4/21/2015 EC ZEW Survey Expectations Apr -- -- 62.4

4/22/2015 US MBA Mortgage Applications 17-Apr -- -- --

US FHFA House Price Index MoM Feb 0.60% -- 0.30%

US Existing Home Sales Mar 5.04 -- 4.88

EC Consumer Confidence Apr A -- -- -3.7


Result FY14

Date Ticker

Net

profit

(Rpbn) YoY

TRIM

est.

(Rpbn)

Cons.

(Rpbn)

% of

TRIM

% of

Cons.

Rec

Comment

1 30-Mar-15 ASRI 1,097 25% 1,409 1,229 77.9% 89.3% Below

Net income grew by +25.1% YoY, 63% YoY increased interest cost, performed bond repurchase of Rp.125bn.

2 30-Mar-15 MTLA 268 11% 316 267 84.8% 100.4% Below

3 30-Mar-15 SGRO 340 186% 368 366 92.5% 93.0% Below Top line grew +26.6%YoY; in-line with consensus and our ex-pecation.

4 30-Mar-15 SILO 84 76% 70 120.9% Above

Core profit margin expanded to 2.5% (vs. FY13 1.9). The com-pany booked net other operating loss of -Rp34bn (vs. FY13 gain Rp2.8bn).

5 30-Mar-15 APLN 855 0% 794 107.6% Above

FY14 net margin was 16.1%, down from FY13 (17.4%). Net other gain was Rp103bn (-24.3%YoY). APLN also booked net interest expense of Rp

6 30-Mar-15 UNVR 5,739 7% 5,492 104.5% Above

Net margin slightly declined by -80bps, due to higher other ex-penses of Rp17tr, and a signifi-cant increase in interest expens-es

7 30-Mar-15 SIDO 414 2% 433 95.7% In-line

EBIT and net margin were ex-panded due to significant de-crease in finance expenses and other expenses

8 30-Mar-15 WIIM 112 -15% 91 123.9% Above WIIM are only covered by 3 ana-lysts. All the margin were de-clined.

9 30-Mar-15 KLBF 2,065 8% 2,110 97.9% In-line

the company has succeed to maintain its margin at the level of 49% for gross margin, 16% for operating margin, and 12% for net margin

10 27-Mar-15 ROTI 189 19% 194 97.4% In-line

There's a significant increase in interest expense to come to Rp47bn (vs Rp24bn), due to 27% YoY growth in debt posi-tion.

11 20-Mar-15 ICBP 2,604 17% 2,674 2,693 97.4% 96.7% In-line

Gross margin expanded by +120bps, backed by declining in raw material price. Yet, there're some increments in opex, relat-ed with new operation of bever-age factory

12 20-Mar-15 INDF 3,885 55% 4,004 4,142 97.0% 93.8% In-line Minzhong started to record as a discontinued operation, following PSAK regulation.

13 17-Mar-15 ACST 105 5% 119 106 88.2% 98.4% In-line Revenus grew by +33% YoY, booked lower gross margin

14 17-Mar-15 WIKA 615 8% 641 621 96.0% 99.1% In-line Revenues grew by +5% YoY, income fr JO grew by +42% YoY, while interest exp grew triple

15 10-Mar-15 SMCB 668 -30% 934 71.6% Below Higher COS and Operating exp due to higher electricity cost and fuel price

16 10-Mar-15 WTON 329 36% 300 307 109.3% 107.0% Above Revenues grow by 24% YoY


Result FY14

Date Ticker

Net

profit

(Rpbn) YoY

TRIM

est.

(Rpbn)

Cons.

(Rpbn)

% of

TRIM

% of

Cons.

Rec

Comment

17 4-Mar-15 BTPN 1,853 66% 1,701 1,695 91.8% 91.5% Below

The company reported stable

NPL at 0.7% (-10bps q-o-q,

+3bps y-o-y) supported by de-

clining NPL in micro segment.

18 4-Mar-15 MPPA 505 72% 593 582 117.5% 115.3% Above Supported by margin expansion

by 130bps to 3.7%.

19 3-Mar-15 SMGR 5,566 4% 5,541 5,628 100.5% 98.9% In-line

Strong revenue growth at

+10.1% YoY. Gross margins

dropped to 43% (FY13: 44.7%),

while op. margin reached 25.8%

(FY13: 28.5%)

20 3-Mar-15 PTPP 532 26% 534 517 99.7% 103.0% In-line

Revenus grew by +6.6%YoY,

higher gross margin at 12.3%

(FY13: 10.9%)

21 3-Mar-15 TBIG 924 -34% 793 595 85.8% 64.4% In-line

Last year, the company booked

net other income of Rp366 bn

(vs. FY2013 -36bn), including

forex loss of Rp192bn (FY2013 -

799bn)

22 25-Feb-15 AALI 2,490 21% 2,114 2,458 84.9% 98.7% In-line

23 25-Feb-15 ADHI 324 -20% 415 295 78.1% 109.8% Below

Negative revenus growth by -

12% YoY, lower income from JO,

and higher interest exp

24 25-Feb-15 WSKT 502 36% 486 422 103.1% 119.0% In-line Income fr JO grew double to

Rp197bn vs. Rp102bn

25 24-Feb-15 ARNA 259 1% 226 87.3% Below

26 24-Feb-15 ITMG 2,533 -17% 2,718 2,325 93.2% 91.8% Below

27 17-Feb-15 LPPF 1,419 23% 1,419 1,376 100.0% 97.0% In-line

LPPF still booked 10.7% SSSG.

We noted a declining bank loans

by 57% YoY to Rp689bn, result-

ing to a -17% interest expense.

28 12-Feb-15 BMRI 19,872 9% 18,978 19,951 95.5% 100.4% In-line

Supported by 17.3% yoy growth

in net interest income but lower

loan growth than industry.

29 6-Feb-15 JSMR 1,403 5% 1,249 1,263 89.0% 90.0% Below

Negative revenues growth

due to lower revenues from

construction, while revenues

from toll road up by +14.5%

YoY

30 30-Jan-15 BBNI 10,783 19% 10,923 11,430 101.3% 106.0% In-line Backed by 13.5% yoy growth in

non interest income

31 30-Jan-15 BDMN 2,604 -37% 1,474 2,211 56.6% 84.9% Below

There was a Rp306bn restructur-

ing cost and flat net interest

income growth

32 27-Jan-15 BBRI 24,197 14% 24,366 24,487 100.7% 101.2% In-line

Backed by 26.5% yoy growth in

interest income and 12% growth

in fee & other operating income

33 27-Jan-15 SMBR 328 5% 375 408 87.4% 80.4% Below

Flattish revenue growth at 4.0%

YoY, due to stagnant sales vol-

ume. Booked high interest in-

come at Rp151bn.


Result FY14 (Cont’d 1)

Date Ticker

Net

profit

(Rpbn) YoY

TRIM

est.

(Rpbn)

Cons.

(Rpbn)

% of

TRIM

% of

Cons.

Rec

Comment

18 30-Jan-15 BBNI 10,783 19% 10,923 11,430 101.3% 106.0% In-line Backed by 13.5% yoy growth in

non interest income

19 30-Jan-15 BDMN 2,604 -37% 1,474 2,211 56.6% 84.9% Below

There was a Rp306bn restructur-

ing cost and flat net interest

income growth

20 27-Jan-15 BBRI 24,197 14% 24,366 24,487 100.7% 101.2% In-line Backed by 26.5% yoy growth in

interest income and 12% growth

21 27-Jan-15 SMBR 328 5% 375 408 87.4% 80.4% Below

Flattish revenue growth at 4.0%

YoY, due to stagnant sales vol-

ume. Booked high interest in-

come at Rp151bn.


Corporate Action

Code Price

Exercise Maturity Emiten Description

BEST-W 200 10-Apr-15 Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate WARAN SERI I BEKASI FAJAR INDUSTRIAL ESTATE

INVS-W 165 8-May-15 Inovisi Infracom WARAN SERI I INOVISI INFRACOM

SUGI-W 100 21-May-15 Sugih Energy WARAN SERI II SUGIH ENERGY

MCOR-W 200 10-Jul-15 Bank Windu Kentjana International WARAN SERI I BANK WINDU KENTJANA INTERNATIONAL

GAMA-W 105 16-Jul-15 Gading Development WARAN SERI I GADING DEVELOPMENT

SUPR-W 4800 28-Aug-15 Solusi Tunas Pratama WARAN SERI I SOLUSI TUNAS PRATAMA

NIRO-W 110 11-Sep-15 Nirvana Development WARAN SERI I NIRVANA DEVELOPMENT

BSIM-W 149 11-Dec-15 Bank Sinar Mas WARAN SERI I BANK SINAR MAS

Warrant

Code Div.

Status Div/share

(Rp) Cum

Dividend Ex Dividend Recording

Payment / Distribution

Total Dividend

ADHI - 36.0 27-Mar-15 30-Mar-15 1-Apr-15 22-Apr-15 64.8

AGRO - 0.82 1-Apr-15 2-Apr-15 7-Apr-15 24-Apr-15 6.1

BBNI - 144.5 24-Mar-15 25-Mar-15 27-Mar-15 17-Apr-15 2,695.7

BBRI - 294.8 26-Mar-15 27-Mar-15 31-Mar-15 22-Apr-15 7,272.5

BBTN - 21.1 31-Mar-15 1-Apr-15 6-Apr-15 24-Apr-15 223.1

BMRI - 212.9 23-Mar-15 24-Mar-15 26-Mar-15 17-Apr-15 4,968.0

DSNG - 50 25-Mar-15 26-Mar-15 30-Mar-15 17-Apr-15 -

JSMR - 72.2 25-Mar-15 26-Mar-15 30-Mar-15 17-Apr-15 491.2

Dividend


Statistics

-0.5

-1.2

-1.4

-1.7

-2.0

-2.6

-2.9

-3.1

-3.9

-4.4

BBCA

SMGR

BBNI

BMRI

LPPF

UNVR

GGRM

INCO

PGAS

MYOR24.9

19.8

8.6

4.9

4.7

4.5

3.8

1.7

1.3

0.3

BRAM

EMTK

SUPR

TOWR

LPKR

MEGA

PLIN

LINK

SCMA

ASII

309

267

240

222

166

164

160

142

111

106

- 200 400

BMRI

TLKM

BBCA

BBRI

JSMR

PGAS

LPKR

SRIL

MTFN

ASII

544

384

227

144

112

104

97

96

96

87

0 200 400 600

SRIL

MTFN

NIRO

ASRI

LPKR

META

BUMI

BRMS

TLKM

TRAM

11,205

6,553

5,933

5,757

5,282

4,911

4,549

4,265

3,779

3,766

SRIL

PGAS

MNCN

TRAM

SMRA

TLKM

MPPA

BMRI

BABP

BBCA

JCI Winners (%) JCI Losers (%) JCI Value (Rpbn) JCI Volume (mn Lot) JCI Freq (x)

YTD (Rp) 3.68% 5,195

YTD (USD) 37.34% 5,504

Moving Avg 20day 5,452 5,466

Moving Avg 50day 5,418 14.1

Moving Avg 200day 5,185 2.4%

Indonesia & Sectors +/- (%)YTD (%)

MSCI Indonesia 6,523.8 -39.2 -0.6 5.2

JII 711.1 -6.3 -0.9 2.9

LQ45 940.2 -8.3 -0.9 4.6

JAKFIN Index 815.9 -5.3 -0.6 11.5

JAKINFR Index 1,074.2 -4.3 -0.4 -7.4

JAKMINE Index 1,265.4 -9.6 -0.8 -7.6

JAKCONS Index 2,277.4 -38.1 -1.6 4.6

JAKTRAD Index 978.6 7.5 0.8 11.4

JAKMIND Index 1,403.0 3.8 0.3 7.3

JAKBIND Index 475.1 -4.7 -1.0 -12.6

JAKPROP Index 567.5 -2.2 -0.4 8.1

JAKAGRI Index 2,258.2 -32.4 -1.4 -3.9

Commodities +/- (%)YTD (%)

CRB Index 219.0 2.2 1.02 -4.8

Oil & Gas

Brent Crude Oil (USD/bbl) 58.4 0.5 0.86 2.0

Nymex Oil (USD/bbl) 53.3 1.4 2.66 -0.0

Natural Gas 2.5 0.0 0.76 -12.8

COAL (AUS Daily) 55.3 0.8 1.56 -10.8

Industrial Metals

Aluminum (USD/tonne) 1,777.3 24.3 1.38 -3.1

Nickel (USD/tonne) 12,595 190 1.53 -16.9

Tin (USD/tonne) 16,275 175 1.09 -16.1

Precious Metal

Gold (USD/t oz.) 1,192.6 -6.7 -0.56 0.7

Silver (USD/t oz.) 16.2 -0.1 -0.80 3.6

Soft Commodities

CPO (Malaysia - Rm/tonne) 2,166 24.0 1.12 -5.5

Rubber (JPY/kg) 1,666 -11.5 -0.69 1.5

Corn (USD/bu.) 374 3.0 0.81 -5.9

Wheat (USD/bu.) 497 -5.3 -1.05 -15.8

Soybeans (USD/bu.) 960 11.5 1.21 -5.8

Volume (m)

Value (Rpbn)

Mkt Cap (Rptr)

Market 2015 P/E (x)

Market Div. Yield (%)

CPO (Malaysia - Rm/tonne)

Indices Region +/- (%) YT D (%)

MXWO MSCI Word 1,779.9 7.77 0.44 4.10

SPX S&P 500 2,095.8 3.41 0.16 1.79

US

18,036.7 59.7 0.33 1.20

Nasdaq US 4,977.3 -10.96 -0.22 5.09

Europe

EURO 50 Europe 411.7 -1.93 -0.47 20.20

FTSE London 7,075.3 10.96 0.16 7.75

DAX Jerman 12,227.6 -111.1 -0.90 24.70

CAC France 5,218.1 -36.06 -0.69 22.12

SMI Swiss 9,415.6 -14.63 -0.16 4.81

BRIC

BOVESPA Brazil 53,981.9 -258 -0.48 7.95

MICEX Russia 1,647.4 -30.80 -1.84 17.96

SENSEX India 29,044.4 0.0 0.00 5.62

NIFTY India 8,834.0 0.0 0.00 6.66

SHCOMP China 4,135.6 13.85 0.34 27.85

SZCOMP China 2,181.9 -5.85 -0.27 54.18

Nikkei Japan 19,908.7 3.2 0.02 14.08

TPX Japan 1,590.8 4.56 0.29 13.02

HSI Hong kong 27,561.5 -454.8 -1.62 16.76

KOSPI S.Korea 2,111.7 12.80 0.61 10.24

TAIEX Taiwan 9,642.2 -24.3 -0.25 3.60

FSSTI Singapore 3,521.1 36.69 1.05 4.63

ASEAN

SET Thailand 1,547.8 0.00 0.00 3.35

PCOMP Philipines 8,056.5 -16.8 -0.21 11.42

KLCI Malaysia 1,839.6 -2.47 -0.13 4.45

VNINDEX Vietnam 558.7 -0.87 -0.16 2.40

Developed ASIA

Dow Jones Industrial

Kurs Region +/- (%) YT D (%)

USDEUR Euro 0.939 -0.008 -0.01 17.31

USDGBP UK 0.677 -0.005 -0.01 12.75

USDCHF Switzerland 0.972 -0.006 -0.01 -2.77

USDCAD Canada 1.249 -0.011 -0.01 4.04

USDAUD Australia 1.311 -0.006 -0.00 9.27

USDNZD New Zealand 1.330 -0.012 -0.01 2.28

USDJPY Japan 119.40 -0.730 -0.01 -0.33

USDCNY China 6.21 (0.00) (0.00) 0.19

USDHKD Hongkong 7.753 0.003 0.00 -0.60

USDSGD Singapore 1.361 -0.011 -0.01 4.65

Rupiah Indonesia 12,984 -4.0 -0.00 4.81

JCI 5,419.1 (28.3) -0.5%


Historical Technical Trading Ideas (1)

Ticker Last Technical Call 14-Apr-15 Chg (%) Recommendation

JCI 5,447 Cont'd Weakening

5,419 -0.51% Correct

LPKR 1,380 Buy

1,440 4.35% Correct

SMRA 1,940 Buy

1,895 -2.32% Incorrect

GJTL 1,290 Buy


UNVR 39,775 Buy

38,575 -3.02% Incorrect

NIRO 222 Sell

214 -3.60% Correct

PTPP 3,900 Sell

3,870 -0.77% Correct



5,447 -0.97% Correct

BBRI 12,975 Buy

13,000 0.19% Correct

GJTL 1,265 Buy

1,290 1.98% Correct

ACES 715 Buy

705 -1.40% Incorrect

SCMA 3,355 Buy

3,380 0.75% Correct

KIJA 333 Buy


MPMX 780 Sell

790 1.28% Correct




ASII 8,150 Buy

8,150 0.00% Correct

PGAS 4,800 Buy

4,825 0.52% Correct

BBCA 15,075 Buy

15,050 -0.17% Incorrect

NIRO 234 Buy


CPRO 101 Buy

99 -1.98% Incorrect

LEAD 2,250 Sell

2,250 0.00% Correct


JCI 5,501 Cont'd Strengtening


ASII 8,150 Buy

8,150 0.00% Correct

PGAS 4,800 Buy

4,825 0.52% Correct

BBCA 15,075 Buy

15,050 -0.17% Incorrect

NIRO 234 Buy


CPRO 101 Buy

99 -1.98% Incorrect

LEAD 2,250 Sell

2,250 0.00% Correct



5,501 0.25% Correct

ASII 8,000 Buy

8,150 1.88% Correct

AALI 24,125 Buy

24,075 -0.21% Incorrect

KIJA 332 Buy


NIRO 229 Buy

234 2.18% Correct

ICBP 14,500 Buy

14,475 -0.17% Incorrect

BBNI 7,225 Sell

7,175 -0.69% Correct






UNVR 39,800 Buy

38,700 -2.76% Incorrect

SSIA 1,160 Buy

1,200 3.45% Correct

GJTL 1,280 Buy

1,280 0.00% Correct

NIRO 229 Buy

229 0.00% Correct

KLBF 1,860 Sell

1,835 -1.34% Correct

BBCA 15,300 Sell

15,025 -1.80% Correct


JCI 5,480 Rebound

5,523 0.79% Correct

ASII 8,200 Buy


BBNI 7,175 Buy

7,275 1.39% Correct

UNVR 38,625 Buy

39,800 3.04% Correct

INTP 22,600 Buy

22,950 1.55% Correct

TLKM 2,835 Buy

2,855 0.71% Correct

KLBF 1,860 Sell

1,860 0.00% Correct



5,480 0.44% Incorrect

GGRM 52,000 Buy

51,975 -0.05% Incorrect

INTP 22,150 Buy

22,600 2.03% Correct

ADRO 980 Buy

980 0.00% Correct

NIRO 232 Buy


CPRO 99 Buy

99 0.00% Correct

BBCA 14,800 Sell



JCI 5,467 Rebound


TLKM 2,835 Buy


ASII 8,175 Buy


SRIL 237 Trading Buy

240 1.27% Correct

NIRO 225 Trading Buy

232 3.11% Correct

BBCA 14,825 Sell

14,800 -0.17% Incorrect

GJTL 1,300 Sell



JCI 5,519 Profit Taking

5,467 -0.94% Correct

ASII 8,575 Buy


SRIL 229 Trading Buy

237 3.49% Correct

NIRO 228 Trading Buy

225 -1.32% Correct

PGAS 4,800 Sell

4,800 0.00% Correct

TLKM 2,890 Sell

2,835 -1.90% Correct

GJTL 1,325 Sell

1,300 -1.89% Correct



Ticker Last Technical Call 31-Mar-15 Chg (%) Recommendation

JCI 5,439 Cont'd Strenghtening

5,519 1.46% Correct

ASII 8,375 Buy

8,575 2.39% Correct

GJTL 1,285 Buy

1,325 3.11% Correct

ADHI 3,040 Buy

3,055 0.49% Correct

WSKT 1,750 Buy

1,780 1.71% Correct

BBNI 7,000 Buy

7,225 3.21% Correct

BBRI 13,025 Buy

13,275 1.92% Correct


JCI 5,397 Cont'd Strenghtening

5,439 0.77% Correct

ASII 8,200 Buy

8,375 2.13% Correct

GJTL 1,260 Buy

1,285 1.98% Correct

PGAS 4,720 Buy

4,805 1.80% Correct

TLKM 2,810 Buy

2,865 1.96% Correct

ADHI 3,015 Buy

3,040 0.83% Correct

AALI 23,650 Buy

23,800 0.63% Correct


JCI 5,369 Technical Rebound

5,397 0.52% Correct

TLKM 2,810 Buy

2,810 0.00% Correct

PGAS 4,650 Buy

4,720 1.51% Correct

LSIP 1,650 Buy

1,720 4.24% Correct

SMGR 13,000 Buy

13,450 3.46% Correct

KLBF 1,835 Sell


UNVR 38,500 Sell


RALS 755 Buy

760 0.66% Correct


JCI 5,405 Cont'd Weakenig

5,369 -0.67% Correct

TLKM 2,880 Buy


UNTR 21,150 Buy

20,850 -1.42% Incorrect

MPPA 4,090 Buy


PGAS 4,655 Buy

4,650 -0.11% Correct

ASII 8,200 Sell

8,150 -0.61% Correct

KLBF 1,805 Sell

1,835 1.66% Correct


JCI 5,448 Profit Taking

5,405 -0.78% Correct

UNVR 38,900 Buy

38,825 -0.19% Incorrect

ITMG 17,650 Buy

17,300 -1.98% Incorrect

BSDE 2,055 Buy


ERAA 985 Buy


ASI 8,150 Sell

8,200 0.61% Correct

LPKR 1,270 Sell

1,270 0.00% Correct





5,448 0.20% Correct

ADRO 970 Buy

975 0.52% Correct

PTBA 10,475 Buy

10,550 0.72% Correct

UNVR 38,625 Buy

38,900 0.71% Correct

BBTN 1,140 Buy

1,165 2.19% Correct

BMRI 12,175 Sell

12,075 -0.82% Correct

BJBR 930 Sell

965 3.76% Incorrect

BMRI 12,200 Sell

12,075 -1.02% Correct

TAXI 905 Sell 885 (0) Correct

Ticker Last Trading Ideas 23-Mar-15 Chg (%) Recommendation

JCI 5,443 Rebound 5437 -0.11% Incorrect

TLKM 2,920 Buy 2920 0.00% Correct

LSIP 1,835 Buy 1795 -2.18% Incorrect

AALI 25,750 Buy 24800 -3.69% Incorrect

TBIG 9,225 Buy 9225 0.00% Correct

BMRI 12,200 Sell 12175 -0.20% Correct

BJBR 955 Sell 955 0.00% Correct

TAXI 905 Sell 910 0.55% Correct

MPPA 3,875 Buy 4010 3.48% Correct


JCI 5,454 Profit Taking 5443 -0.20% Correct

UNVR 38,300 Buy 38300 0.00% Correct

PTBA 10,450 Buy 10350 -0.96% Incorrect

ITMG 17,025 Buy 17650 3.67% Correct

ELSA 560 Buy 560 0.00% Correct

ASRI 590 Buy 580 -1.69% Incorrect

VIVA 550 Buy 540 -1.82% Incorrect


JCI 5,413 Profit Taking 5454 0.75% Correct

UNTR 21,500 Buy 21475 -0.12% Incorrect

PTBA 10,350 Buy 10450 0.97% Correct

ITMG 16,600 Buy 17025 2.56% Correct

AALI 26,625 Buy 25625 -3.76% Incorrect


TLKM 2,950 Buy 2950 0.00% Correct


JCI 5,439 Profit Taking 5413 -0.48% Correct

UNTR 20,500 Buy 21500 4.88% Correct

INTP 22,475 Buy 22275 -0.89% Incorrect

ASRI 590 Buy 570 -3.39% Incorrect


MPPA 4,430 Sell 4395 -0.79% Correct

INCO 3,345 Sell 3315 -0.90% Correct


JCI 5,435 Cont'd Strenghtening 5,439 0.08% Correct

ASII 7,975 Buy 8,000 0.31% Correct

PGAS 5,225 Buy 5,200 -0.48% Incorrect

TLKM 2,975 Buy 2,955 -0.67% Correct

INTP 22,175 Buy 22,475 1.35% Correct

TAXI 785 Trading Buy 865 10.19% Correct

MPMX 875 Trading Buy 840 -4.00% Incorrect


VIVA 545 Buy 550 0.92% Correct


Research Team

Sebastian Tobing, CFA

Head of Research & Institutional Business

([email protected])

Maria Renata

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Gina Novrina Nasution, CSA

Technical Analyst

([email protected])

Paula Ruth

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Angga Aditya Assaf

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Willinoy Sitorus

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

M. Dian Octiana

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Dini Agmivia Anggraeni

Fixed Income/Macro Analyst

([email protected])

Yeni Simanjuntak

On-the-ground Analyst

([email protected])

Rovandi

Research Associate

([email protected])

Institutional Sales Team

Daniel Dwi Seputro

Head of Institutional Equity Sales

([email protected])

Dewi Yusnita

Equity Institutional Sales

([email protected])

Meitawati


([email protected])

Fachruly Fiater


([email protected])

Henry Sidarta


([email protected])

Raditya Andyono


([email protected])

Nancy Pardede


([email protected])

Retail Sales Team

JAKARTA AREA

Nathanael Benny Prasetyo

Head of Retail ECM

([email protected])

Ariawan Anwar

Artha Graha, Jakarta

([email protected])

Windra Djulnaily

Pluit, Jakarta

([email protected])

Ferry Zabur

Kelapa Gading, Jakarta

([email protected])

Eddy Sumarli

Puri Kencana, Jakarta

([email protected])

Very Wijaya

BSD, Tangerang

([email protected])

SUMATERA

Juliana Effendy

Medan, Sumatera Utara

([email protected])

Tantie Rivi Watie

Pekanbaru, Riau

([email protected])

Nathanael Benny Prasetyo

Palembang, Sumatera Selatan

([email protected])

EAST INDONESIA

Wiranto Sunyoto

Branch Area Manager

([email protected])

Sonny Muljadi

Surabaya, Jawa Timur

([email protected]

Ni Made Dwi Hapsari Wijayanti

Denpasar, Bali

([email protected])

Ivan Jaka Perdana

Malang, Jawa Timur

([email protected])

Arifin Pribadi

Makasar, Sulawesi Selatan

([email protected])

CENTRAL JAVA, AREA

Agus Bambang Suseno

Solo, Jawa Tengah

([email protected])

Mariana Kusuma Wati

Semarang, Jawa Tengah

[email protected])

WEST JAVA

Asep Saepudin

Bandung, Jawa Barat

([email protected])

Ariffianto

Cirebon, Jawa Barat

([email protected])

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk

Gedung Artha Graha 18th Floor

Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 52-53

Jakarta 12190, Indonesia

t. +62-21 2924 9088

f. +62-21 2924 9150

www.trimegah.com

DISCLAIMER

This report has been prepared by PT Trimegah Securities Tbk on behalf of itself and its affiliated companies and is provided for information

purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy. This report has

been produced independently and the forecasts, opinions and expectations contained herein are entirely those of Trimegah Securities.

While all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that information contained herein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication,

Trimegah Securities makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness and it should not be relied upon as such. This report is

provided solely for the information of clients of Trimegah Securities who are expected to make their own investment decisions without reliance

on this report. Neither Trimegah Securities nor any officer or employee of Trimegah Securities accept any liability whatsoever for any direct or

consequential loss arising from any use of this report or its contents. Trimegah Securities and/or persons connected with it may have acted

upon or used the information herein contained, or the research or analysis on which it is based, before publication. Trimegah Securities may in

future participate in an offering of the company’s equity securities.

Documents

TRIM Daily - trimegah.com · Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) down by 28 poins or 0.5% to 5419 yesterday. Index movers were mostly driven by consumer finance and basic industry. Total