14
TRIM DAILY PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com 1 We published two notes: 1) Consumer report—takeaway from our investor forum. Our top pick for consumer is ICBP (Buy, TP 16600) and for retail are LPPF (Buy, TP 19800) and MPPA (Buy, TP 2800), 2) A visit to Summarecon Bandung project where there was healthy interest in its launching—this is positive for property sector in general and Summarecon (Buy, TP 1960) in particular. More importantly, pricing at Rp8mn per sqm is a bit higher than market previous expectation of Rp6-7mn (bear in mind nearby real estates are at Rp4mn). Summarecon currently trades at 56% disc to NAV. A more positive view on property is also a positive sentiment on cement (top pick is SMGR). TRIM Daily TRIM Highlights Nov 23, 2015 Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) up by 42 point to 4561 yesterday. Index movers were mostly driven by infrastructure (+2.1%) basic industry (+1.6%) and property (+1.5%). Total transaction value was Rp4.3tr. JCI recorded Rp145bn net buy by foreign investors. JCI today is expected to continues strengthening trend and trade in 4505 –4600 range Technical Market View Crude oil futures lost ground on Monday in early Asian trading, as the global supply surplus pressured prices. Benchmark front-month Brent futures for January fell 16 cents or 0.36 percent at $44.50 a barrel as of 0011 GMT after it ended up 48 cents at $44.66 a barrel on Friday. Global Wrap Technical analysis: trading picks JCI 4,561.3 Global Indices Dual Listing (NYSE) Stock Price Rating Reason PTPP 3875 Buy PTPP a potential upside today with trading range 3800-3950 SMRA 1565 Buy SMRA long term bullish formed a double white candle in 2 days, SMRA have to continues strengthening with range 1510-1650 BBCA 13150 Buy BBCA a potential upside today with trading range 13050-13225 UNVR 37250 Buy UNVR short term bullish, UNVR will trade in rang 37175-37350 ICBP 12900 Trading Buy ICBP positive signal from MACD & RSI indica- tor. ICBP support-resistance level for today is 12575-13200 LPPF 15975 Buy LPPF long term bearish with potential to continues strengthening. LPPF today trading in range 15875-16200 Change 0.94% Transaction Volume (m) 4,112 Transaction Value (Rpbn) 4,313 Mkt Cap (Rptr) 4,812 Market 2015 P/E (x) #N/A Market Div. Yield (%) 2.8% Price C hg % Dow Jones 17,823.8 91.1 0.5 Nasdaq 5,104.9 31.3 0.6 Nikkei 19,879.8 20 0.1 ST Times 2,917.9 -1.9 -0.1 FTSE 6,334.6 4.7 0.1 Hang Seng 22,754.7 255 1.1 C hg % USD IDR 13,623 -152 -1.1 10 yr Indo Govt bond (%) 8.65 -0.0 -0.1 10 yr US govt bond (%) 2.3 0.01 0.5 Spread (%) 6.38 -0.02 -0.6 EIDO 21.3 0.4 1.7 Foreign YtD (USDmn) (2,895) 11 -0.4 JCI Index, Avg 5D MA Value 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 (Rpbn) Avg. 5 Day MA Trading Value (RHS) Price (LHS)

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Page 1: TRIM Daily · Technical Market View Crude oil futures lost ground on Monday in early Asian trading, as the global supply surplus pressured prices. Benchmark front-month Brent futures

TRIM DAILY PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com 1

We published two notes: 1) Consumer report—takeaway from our investor forum. Our top pick for consumer is ICBP (Buy, TP 16600) and for retail are LPPF (Buy, TP 19800) and MPPA (Buy, TP 2800), 2) A visit to Summarecon Bandung project where there was healthy interest in its launching—this is positive for property sector in general and Summarecon (Buy, TP 1960) in particular. More importantly, pricing at Rp8mn per sqm is a bit higher than

market previous expectation of Rp6-7mn (bear in mind nearby real estates are at Rp4mn). Summarecon currently trades at 56% disc to NAV. A more positive view on property is also a positive sentiment on cement (top pick is SMGR).

TRIM Daily

TRIM Highlights

Nov 23, 2015

Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) up by 42 point to 4561 yesterday. Index movers were mostly driven by infrastructure (+2.1%) basic industry (+1.6%) and property (+1.5%). Total transaction value was Rp4.3tr. JCI recorded Rp145bn net buy by foreign investors. JCI today is expected to continues strengthening trend and trade in 4505 –4600 range

Technical Market View

Crude oil futures lost ground on Monday in early Asian trading, as the global supply surplus pressured prices. Benchmark front-month Brent futures for January fell 16 cents or 0.36 percent at $44.50 a barrel as of 0011 GMT after it ended up 48 cents at $44.66 a barrel on Friday.

Global Wrap

Technical analysis: trading picks

JCI 4,561.3

Global Indices

Dual Listing (NYSE)

Stock Price Rating Reason

PTPP 3875 Buy PTPP a potential upside today with trading range 3800-3950

SMRA 1565 Buy SMRA long term bullish formed a double white candle in 2 days, SMRA have to continues strengthening with range 1510-1650

BBCA 13150 Buy BBCA a potential upside today with trading range 13050-13225

UNVR 37250 Buy UNVR short term bullish, UNVR will trade in rang 37175-37350

ICBP 12900 Trading

Buy

ICBP positive signal from MACD & RSI indica-tor. ICBP support-resistance level for today is 12575-13200

LPPF 15975 Buy LPPF long term bearish with potential to continues strengthening. LPPF today trading in range 15875-16200

Change 0.94%

Transaction Volume (m) 4,112

Transaction Value (Rpbn) 4,313

Mkt Cap (Rptr) 4,812

Market 2015 P/E (x) #N/A

Market Div. Yield (%) 2.8%

Price Chg %

Dow Jones 17,823.8 91.1 0.5

Nasdaq 5,104.9 31.3 0.6

Nikkei 19,879.8 20 0.1

ST Times 2,917.9 -1.9 -0.1

FTSE 6,334.6 4.7 0.1

Hang Seng 22,754.7 255 1.1

Chg %

USD IDR 13,623 -152 -1.1

10 yr Indo Govt bond (%) 8.65 -0.0 -0.1

10 yr US govt bond (%) 2.3 0.01 0.5

Spread (%) 6.38 -0.02 -0.6

EIDO 21.3 0.4 1.7

Foreign YtD (USDmn) (2,895) 11 -0.4

JCI Index, Avg 5D MA Value

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15

(Rpbn)Avg. 5 Day MA Trading Value (RHS) Price (LHS)

Page 2: TRIM Daily · Technical Market View Crude oil futures lost ground on Monday in early Asian trading, as the global supply surplus pressured prices. Benchmark front-month Brent futures

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 2

News of the Day

Pelindo to develop 2 ports and upgrade 1 in 2016

The new ports will be located in Sorong, West Papua

(investment value estimated at Rp3tn) and Kijing, West

Kalimantan (investment value estimated at Rp4.2tn).

With upgrade on Cirebon port in West Java (estimated

cost Rp1.75tn). Funding will come from internal cash and

proceeds from the global bonds issued in 2015. Source:

The Jakarta Post ([email protected])

South Korean firm to buy 40% stake in Bank Anda-

ra

APRO Financial Co Ltd, South Korean finance firm, will

take 202.923 shares of Bank Andara, pending the result

of fit and proper test from OJK and approval from share-

holders meeting. Acquisition process is estimated to be

completed by Feb 24, 2016. Through the acquisition,

APRO is expected to inject additional capital worth

Rp450bn, bringing Bank Andara’s total capital to

R p 7 5 0 b n . S o u r c e : T h e J a k a r t a P o s t

([email protected])

OJK preps for single licensing for banks, capital

markets or financial sector

The system is expected to be ready by end 2015, through

a single window integrated IT system. In addition to

efficiency, the system is also expected to help OJK en-

hance its cross-sector supervision for data-checking

permit proposals and fit-and-proper tests for industry

management. Source: The Jakar ta Post

([email protected])

Pertamina may export diesel in 2016

As the company experiences oversupply with current

production increase and domestic demand slump due to

mandatory biodiesel blending. Pertamina’s marketing

director, Ahmad Bambang, said that the company ex-

pects around 400k barrels surplus of diesel fuel monthly

if the government increases the percentage of biofuel in

mandatory-fuel blending policy. Source: The Jakarta Post

([email protected])

Govt mulls to cut income tax for labor intensive

industries

This move is contemplated to provide boost for people’s

consumption. The government also invites companies to

cooperate in providing their workers data. Currently the

prevailing income tax is as follow: 5% for < Rp50mn p.a;

15% for Rp50-250mn p.a; Rp25% for Rp250-500mn p.a;

and 30% for >Rp500mn. Source: Investor Daily

([email protected])

Govt to ask for US$1bn loans from Asian Infrastruc-

ture Investment Bank

To finance 2015-2019 strategic infrastructure projects,

which may be dedicated to building 35k MW power plants

projects. The loans is expected to be based on result base

lending. So far, the government has received US$31.8bn

indication of commitment, US$11bn from multilateral loans,

US$15bn from Japan, US$2.5bn from China and the re-

maining from other countries. Source: Investor Daily

([email protected])

SIDO targets single digit top line and bottom line in

2016F

SIDO will focus on distribution of its products in Eastern

Indonesia. Company, as well, will concentrate on develop-

ment of its herbal products to support top line and bottom

line growth. In 2016F, SIDO will launch 3-5 new herbal

products and expand its pharmacy products, cardio supple-

ment and diabetic drugs. Source: Bisnis Indonesia

([email protected])

MYOR: to build new factory in Tiongkok

In order to expand into export market, MYOR plans to build

new factory in Tiongkok that will produce biscuit, candy,

and coffee products. The construction period will start in

1H16 and due within 1-year. MYOR has already 1 factory in

India. The company aims to maintain its export portion at

~40% of revenue. Source: Kontan

Pharmacy companies suggest tax to be covered by

Government

As of now, composition of drugs price include 10% of distri-

bution margin, 25% of drugstore margin, and 10% of tax.

If Government could cover the tax, hence drugs price can

be reduced. Moreover, KPPU has asked Government to

control price cap of branded generics and licensed drugs to

avoid the high price. Source: Bisnis Indonesia

([email protected])

KRAS: to delay IPO of its two subsidiaries

Which is: PT Krakatau Bandar Samudera and PT Krakatau

Industrial Estate Cilegon. Source: Bisnis Indonesia

Coal producers cut up to 20% of its production this

year

10M15 coal production volume was 322.5mt (-12.96%

YoY). It comprises 78.23% of this year’s production target

425mt. ESDM Minister Bambang Gatot is pessimistic that

they could achieved this year’s target, mentioning that

production will remain under pressure unless there is im-

provement on coal price. Source: Investor Daily

Page 3: TRIM Daily · Technical Market View Crude oil futures lost ground on Monday in early Asian trading, as the global supply surplus pressured prices. Benchmark front-month Brent futures

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 3

News of the Day

Dua Putra (DPUM) sets IPO price at its upper limit

Rp550

As its stock gets oversubscribed repetitively. Through

this, they might be able to obtain up to Rp921.25bn by

offering 40.12% of its stocks. Proceeds of IPO fund will

be used to purchase a purse seine ship Rp130bn, build

cold storage and production machines Rp200bn, and the

remainder for working capital purposes. DPUM targeted

listing to be on 8th December. Source: Bisnis Indonesia

TLKM: Telkomsel explores bank loan minimum

Rp3tr starting 1Q16 to finance capex.

• Telkomsel targets capex of Rp12.9tr for next year,

with 85% allocated for network development

(already signed contract with vendors, i.e. 3G and

4G). The company is in the progress (since early

2015) of network optimization in 30 cities across

Indonesia to increase quality of mobile broadband

service (data service used by smartphone).

• TLKM targets to issue bonds (PUB I Phase II) of

Rp5tr in 1H16 to finance telco network instructure

development. TLKM is reviewing the possibility to

unlock value schemes (equity injection, strategic

parther, IPO) for several of its subsidiaries, including

Mitratel (more appropriate scheme to be discussed)

and PT Administrasi Medika (health insurance com-

pany with total asset valued Rp169bn)

Source: Investor Daily, Bisnis Indonesia

Comment:

Our 2016E Telkomsel’s capex (Rp12.8tr) is still in-line

with company’s target. TLKM is traded at 2016E EV/

EBITDA of 7x.

ISAT & EXCL: Possibility to participate in Palapa

Ring Project II (est. value USD230mn) Tender as

consortium.

According to EXCL, the company forms consortium with

ISAT and PT Alita Praya Mita. ISAT said forming consorti-

um is one of alternatives being discussed. According to

official from Communication and Informatics Ministry, the

request for proposal (RFP) is scheduled to be released

today. Tender winnner will be announced in 1Q16.

Source: Bisnis Indonesia

Page 4: TRIM Daily · Technical Market View Crude oil futures lost ground on Monday in early Asian trading, as the global supply surplus pressured prices. Benchmark front-month Brent futures

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 4

Table

Indo Market PE vs Regional (Weekly)

Indo Market PE vs 10yr Bond Yield

Oil Price (Brent), Coal Price (Newcastle), Gold

Foreign Fund Flow in last 5 & 30 days

5yr Bond Yield Indo (USD) vs US Bond Yield

CPO Price, Soybean Price (both 1m Futures)

-38 -66

-247

-130

-6

-405

-677

-148

-984

-485

-7

-953

(1,200)

(1,000)

(800)

(600)

(400)

(200)

0

IND

ON

ESIA

PH

ILIP

PIN

ES

SO

UTH

KO

REA

TH

AIL

AN

D

VIE

TN

AM

IND

IA

(USDmn) 5 Days 30 Days

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Jan-15

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

May-15

May-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

Jul-

15

Aug-15

Sep-1

5

Oct-

15

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

(%) Bond Yield US Ind 5yr Bond Yield Indo in USD

500

700

900

1,100

1,300

1,500

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Jan-15

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

May-15

May-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

Jul-

15

Aug-15

Sep-1

5

Oct-

15

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

(USD/ Troy oz.)(USD)

Brent Crude Oil (bbl) (LHS) Coal (mt) (LHS) Gold (RHS)

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

May-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

Aug-15

Sep-1

5

Oct-

15

(USD

Bushels)(MYR Tons)

CPO Malaysia (LHS) Soybean (RHS)

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

22.0

2010

2010

2010

2011

2011

2012

2012

2013

2013

2014

2014

2015

2015

(x)

Weekly Hang Seng Singapore Thailand Philippines Malaysia Indonesia

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

12.0

13.0

14.0

15.0

16.0

17.0

18.0

Nov-

14

Dec-

14

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

May-

15

Jun-

15

Jul-

15

Aug-

15

Sep-

15

Oct-

15

Nov-

15

(%)(X) JCI PE (LHS) Indo 10Yr Bond Yield (RHS)

Page 5: TRIM Daily · Technical Market View Crude oil futures lost ground on Monday in early Asian trading, as the global supply surplus pressured prices. Benchmark front-month Brent futures

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 5

Table

INCO, ANTM vs Nickel price (LME)

Coal Price (Newcastle) vs Coal Sector

TINS vs Tin price (LME)

ANTM vs Gold price

CPO Price (1m Futures in Malaysia) vs CPO Sector

GIAA vs Brent Crude Oil

0

50

100

150

200

250

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

May-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

Aug-15

Sep-1

5

Oct-

15

(USD/MT)

Coal (LHS) COAL Sector (RHS)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Jan-15

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

May-15

May-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

Jul-

15

Aug-15

Sep-1

5

Oct-

15

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

(MYR / Ton)

CPO Malaysia (LHS) CPO Sector (RHS)

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Jan-15

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

May-15

May-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

Jul-

15

Aug-15

Sep-1

5

Oct-

15

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

(USD /MT)(Rp)

INCO (LHS) ANTM (LHS) Nickel LME (RHS)

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1,000

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Jan-15

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

May-15

May-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

Jul-

15

Aug-15

Sep-1

5

Oct-

15

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

(USD troy oz.)(Rp)ANTM (LHS) Gold (RHS)

-

3,000

6,000

9,000

12,000

15,000

18,000

21,000

24,000

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Jan-15

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

May-15

May-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

Jul-

15

Aug-15

Sep-1

5

Oct-

15

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

(USD/MT)(Rp) TINS (LHS) Tin LME (RHS)

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Nov-1

4

Dec-14

Jan-15

Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-

15

Mar-

15

Apr-

15

May-15

May-15

Jun-1

5

Jul-

15

Jul-

15

Aug-15

Sep-1

5

Oct-

15

Oct-

15

Nov-1

5

(USD bbl)(Rp)

GIAA (LHS) Crude Oil Brent (RHS)

Page 6: TRIM Daily · Technical Market View Crude oil futures lost ground on Monday in early Asian trading, as the global supply surplus pressured prices. Benchmark front-month Brent futures

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 6

World Economic Calendar

Date Time Country Event Period Survey Actual Prior

11/16/2015 US Empire Manufacturing Nov -6.3 -10.74 -11.4

ID Trade Balance (USDmn) Oct 725 1019 1017

11/17/2015 ID Exports YoY (%) Oct -16.78 -20.98 -18.0

EC CPI MoM (%) Oct 0.1 0.1 0.2

EC CPI YoY (%) Oct F 0 0.1 0.0

EC CPI Core YoY (%) Oct F 1 1.1 1.0

11/17/2015 US CPI MoM (%) Oct 0.2 0.2 -0.2

US CPI Ex Food and Energy MoM (%) Oct 0.2 0.2 0.2

US CPI YoY (%) Oct 0.1 0.2 0.0

US Industrial Production MoM (%) Oct 0.1 -0.2 -0.2

US Capacity Utilization Oct 77.5 77.5 77.5

ID Bank Indonesia Reference Rate 17-Nov 7.5 7.5 7.5

ID Bank Indonesia Lending Facility Rate 17-Nov 8 8 8.0

11/18/2016 US Net Long-term TIC Flows (USDbn) Sep -- 33.6 20.4

US Total Net TIC Flows (%) Sep -- -175.1 -9.2

US MBA Mortgage Applications 13-Nov -- 6.2 -1.3

US Housing Starts ('000') Oct 1160 1060 1,206

US Building Permits ('000') Oct 1147 1150 1103

11/19/2015 US Initial Jobless Claims ('000') 14-Nov 270 271 276

US Continuing Claims ('000') 7-Nov 2167 2175 2174

US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 15-Nov -- 41.2 41.6

US Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Nov -0.5 1.9 -4.5

US Leading Index Oct 0.5 0.6 -0.2

11/23/2015 US Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index Oct -- -- -0.37

US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Nov P 54 -- 54.1

US Existing Home Sales (USDmn) Oct 5.4 -- 5.55

11/24/2015 US Advance Goods Trade Balance (USDbn) Oct -61.9 -- -58.6

US GDP Annualized QoQ 3Q S 2 -- 1.5

US Personal Consumption 3Q S -- -- 3.2

US GDP Price Index 3Q S 1.2 -- 1.2

US Core PCE QoQ 3Q S -- -- 1.3

US Consumer Confidence Index Nov 99.2 -- 97.6

US Richmond Fed Manufact. Index Nov -- -- -1

11/25/2015 US MBA Mortgage Applications 20-Nov -- -- 6.2

US Personal Income Oct 0.4 -- 0.1

US Personal Spending Oct 0.3 -- 0.1

US Durable Goods Orders Oct P 1.5 -- -1.2

US Durables Ex Transportation Oct P 0.4 -- -0.4

US Initial Jobless Claims 21-Nov -- -- 271000

US Continuing Claims 14-Nov -- -- 2.18E+06

US FHFA House Price Index MoM Sep 0.5 -- 0.3

US Markit US Composite PMI Nov P -- -- 55

US Markit US Services PMI Nov P -- -- 54.8

US Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 22-Nov -- -- 41.2

US New Home Sales Oct 500000 -- 468000

US U. of Mich. Sentiment Nov F 93 -- 93.1

11/26/2015 EC M3 Money Supply YoY Oct 4.8 -- 4.9

11/27/2015 EC Consumer Confidence Nov F -- -- --

11/30/2015 US Chicago Purchasing Manager Nov -- -- 56.2

US Pending Home Sales MoM Oct -- -- -2.30%

US Dallas Fed Manf. Activity Nov -- -- -12.7

12/01/2015 US Markit US Manufacturing PMI Nov F -- -- --

Page 7: TRIM Daily · Technical Market View Crude oil futures lost ground on Monday in early Asian trading, as the global supply surplus pressured prices. Benchmark front-month Brent futures

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 7

Corporate Action

Code Price

Exercise Maturity Emiten Description

INVS-W 165 8-May-15 Inovisi Infracom WARAN SERI I INOVISI INFRACOM

SUGI-W 100 21-May-15 Sugih Energy WARAN SERI II SUGIH ENERGY

MCOR-W 200 10-Jul-15 Bank Windu Kentjana International WARAN SERI I BANK WINDU KENTJANA INTERNATIONAL

GAMA-W 105 16-Jul-15 Gading Development WARAN SERI I GADING DEVELOPMENT

SUPR-W 4800 28-Aug-15 Solusi Tunas Pratama WARAN SERI I SOLUSI TUNAS PRATAMA

NIRO-W 110 11-Sep-15 Nirvana Development WARAN SERI I NIRVANA DEVELOPMENT

BSIM-W 149 11-Dec-15 Bank Sinar Mas WARAN SERI I BANK SINAR MAS

Warrant

Page 8: TRIM Daily · Technical Market View Crude oil futures lost ground on Monday in early Asian trading, as the global supply surplus pressured prices. Benchmark front-month Brent futures

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 8

Statistics

JCI Winners (%) JCI Losers (%) JCI Value (Rpbn) JCI Volume (mn Lot) JCI Freq (x)

YTD (Rp) -12.73% 4,112

YTD (USD) 5.67% 4,313

Moving Avg 20day 4,526 4,812

Moving Avg 50day 4,454 #N/A

Moving Avg 200day 4,929 2.8%

Indonesia & Sectors +/- (%)YTD (%)

MSCI Indonesia 5,414.6 65.7 1.2 -12.7

JII 604.5 7.7 1.3 -12.5

LQ45 787.4 9.4 1.2 -12.4

JAKFIN Index 674.6 2.6 0.4 -7.8

JAKINFR Index 951.6 19.4 2.1 -18.0

JAKMINE Index 889.2 -6.6 -0.7 -35.0

JAKCONS Index 2,071.1 24.2 1.2 -4.9

JAKTRAD Index 824.1 5.3 0.6 -6.2

JAKMIND Index 1,097.9 8.5 0.8 -16.0

JAKBIND Index 411.6 5.2 1.3 -24.3

JAKPROP Index 485.8 7.3 1.5 -7.4

JAKAGRI Index 1,655.9 9.4 0.6 -29.6

Commodities +/- (%)YTD (%)

CRB Index 183.7 -0.4 -0.21 -20.1

Oil & Gas

Brent Crude Oil (USD/bbl) 44.7 0.5 1.09 -22.1

Nymex Oil (USD/bbl) 40.4 -0.1 -0.37 -24.2

Natural Gas 2.1 -0.1 -5.76 -26.0

COAL (AUS Daily) 53.9 0.0 0.00 -13.1

Industrial Metals

Aluminum (USD/tonne) 1,446.5 -18.0 -1.23 -21.1

Nickel (USD/tonne) 8,730 -220 -2.46 -42.4

Tin (USD/tonne) 14,645 -5 -0.03 -24.5

Precious Metal

Gold (USD/t oz.) 1,076.3 -1.6 -0.15 -9.1

Silver (USD/t oz.) 14.1 -0.1 -0.89 -9.6

Soft Commodities

CPO (Malaysia - Rm/tonne) 2,159 19.0 0.89 -5.8

Rubber (JPY/kg) 1,251 21.8 1.77 -23.8

Corn (USD/bu.) 363 -1.0 -0.27 -8.5

Wheat (USD/bu.) 489 -2.3 -0.46 -17.2

Soybeans (USD/bu.) 858 -2.5 -0.29 -15.8

Volume (m)

Value (Rpbn)

Mkt Cap (Rptr)

Market 2015 P/E (x)

Market Div. Yield (%)

CPO (Malaysia - Rm/tonne)

Kurs Region +/- (%) YT D (%)

USDEUR Euro 0.939 0.008 0.8 17.4

USDGBP UK 0.658 0.004 0.7 9.7

USDCHF Switzerland 1.018 0.005 0.5 1.8

USDCAD Canada 1.335 0.006 0.5 11.2

USDAUD Australia 1.382 -0.008 -0.6 15.1

USDNZD New Zealand 1.524 0.001 0.0 17.2

USDJPY Japan 122.81 -0.060 -0.0 2.5

USDCNY China 6.38 0.00 0.0 3.0

USDHKD Hongkong 7.750 0.000 0.0 -0.6

USDSGD Singapore 1.413 0.000 0.0 8.7

Rupiah Indonesia 13,623 -152.0 -1.1 10.0

Indices Region +/- (%) YT D (%)

MXWO MSCI Word 1,702.8 2.27 0.13 -0.40

SPX S&P 500 2,089.2 7.93 0.38 1.47

US

17,823.8 91.1 0.51 0.00

Nasdaq US 5,104.9 31.28 0.62 7.79

Europe

EURO 50 Europe 381.8 0.83 0.22 11.47

FTSE London 6,334.6 4.70 0.07 -3.53

DAX Jerman 11,119.8 34.4 0.31 13.40

CAC France 4,911.0 -4.13 -0.08 14.94

SMI Swiss 9,015.8 7.18 0.08 0.36

BRIC

BOVESPA Brazil 48,138.9 0 0.00 -3.74

MICEX Russia 1,826.7 15.52 0.86 30.80

SENSEX India 25,868.5 26.6 0.10 -5.93

NIFTY India 7,856.6 13.8 0.18 -5.15

SHCOMP China 3,630.5 13.44 0.37 12.24

SZCOMP China 2,285.8 28.62 1.27 61.52

Nikkei Japan 19,879.8 20.0 0.10 13.92

TPX Japan 1,603.2 2.80 0.17 13.90

HSI Hong kong 22,754.7 255 1.13 -3.60

KOSPI S.Korea 1,989.9 0.95 0.05 3.88

TAIEX Taiwan 8,465.5 -11.8 -0.14 -9.05

FSSTI Singapore 2,917.9 -1.92 -0.07 -13.29

ASEAN

SET Thailand 1,393.8 8.87 0.64 -6.93

PCOMP Philipines 6,932.8 107.4 1.57 -4.12

KLCI Malaysia 1,661.9 1.83 0.11 -5.64

VNINDEX Vietnam 604.5 2.56 0.43 10.79

Developed ASIA

Dow Jones Industrial

-0.7

-1.1

-2.0

-2.4

-2.5

-2.7

-3.3

-3.9

-4.2

-6.7

UNTR

BMRI

MLBI

PGAS

ADRO

AMRT

INCO

KREN

MYOR

ANTM6.4

6.1

3.9

3.6

3.3

2.2

1.5

1.5

0.8

0.7

CPIN

ISAT

GGRM

TLKM

SCMA

ICBP

BBCA

UNVR

ASII

HMSP

233

224

186

163

134

124

119

110

102

101

- 100 200 300

TLKM

ASII

ANTM

BBRI

BBCA

LPKR

BMRI

ADHI

MYRX

SSMS

519

156

155

131

117

110

100

98

87

81

0 200 400 600

ANTM

BIPI

MYRX

SUGI

SRIL

ASRI

ARTI

LPKR

BWPT

TLKM

14,288

6,487

5,003

4,763

4,618

4,531

4,431

4,225

4,043

3,853

ANTM

SRIL

ASII

KLBF

TLKM

LPKR

ADHI

SSMS

MYRX

ASRI

JCI 4,561.3 42.4 0.9%

Page 9: TRIM Daily · Technical Market View Crude oil futures lost ground on Monday in early Asian trading, as the global supply surplus pressured prices. Benchmark front-month Brent futures

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 9

Historical Technical Trading Ideas (1)

Ticker Last Technical Call 12-Oct-15 Chg (%) Recommendation

JCI 4,589 strengthened

4,612 0.48% Correct

PTPP 3,805 Buy

3,830 0.66% Correct

GGRM 43,425 Buy

43,700 0.63% Correct

SMRA 1,420 Buy

1,440 1.41% Correct

BBRI 10,550 Buy

10,675 1.18% Correct

BBTN 1,095 Buy

1,105 0.91% Correct

SRIL 392 Trd. Buy

397 1.28% Correct

Ticker Last Technical Call 9-Oct-15 Chg (%) Recommendation

JCI 4,589 strengthened

4,612 0.48% Correct

NIRO 128 Buy

130 1.56% Correct

DMAS 230 Buy

231 0.43% Correct

SMCB 1,100 Buy

1,105 0.45% Correct

ITMG 10,500 Buy

10,850 3.33% Correct

SRIL 392 Buy

397 1.28% Correct

PGAS 3,000 Sell

2,995 -0.17% Correct

Ticker Last Technical Call 8-Oct-15 Chg (%) Recommendation

JCI 4,487 strengthened

4,491 0.10% Correct

TLKM 2,740 Buy

2,710 -1.09% Incorrect

TBIG 6,400 Buy

6,450 0.78% Correct

PWON 397 Buy

390 -1.76% Incorrect

ASRI 398 Buy

377 -5.28% Incorrect

ASII 6,125 Sell

6,325 3.27% Incorrect

PGAS 2,950 Sell

2,890 -2.03% Correct

Ticker Last Technical Call 7-Oct-15 Chg (%) Recommendation

JCI 4,589 strengthened

4,612 0.48% Correct

TINS 710 Buy

730 2.82% Correct

INCO 2,310 Buy

2,410 4.33% Correct

BBNI 5,025 Sell

5,025 0.00% Incorrect

BBRI 10,550 Sell

10,675 1.18% Incorrect

PWON 416 Buy

420 0.96% Correct

SMGR 10,550 Buy

10,700 1.42% Correct

Ticker Last Technical Call 6-Oct-15 Chg (%) Recommendation

JCI 4,344 strengthened

4,446 2.35% Correct

AALI 20,325 Buy

20,000 -1.60% Incorrect

BMRI 8,200 Buy

8,900 8.54% Correct

PWON 367 Buy

383 4.36% Correct

BBNI 4,400 Buy

4,535 3.07% Correct

ITMG 10,000 Sell

10,175 1.75% Incorrect

SMGR 10,050 Spec Buy

10,075 0.25% Correct

Page 10: TRIM Daily · Technical Market View Crude oil futures lost ground on Monday in early Asian trading, as the global supply surplus pressured prices. Benchmark front-month Brent futures

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 10

Historical Technical Trading Ideas (2)

Ticker Last Technical Call 5-Oct-15 Chg (%) Recommendation

JCI 4,208 strengthened

4,344 3.23% Correct

ITMG 9,725 Spec Buy

10,000 2.83% Correct

PWON 339 Spec Buy

367 8.26% Correct

ANTM 481 Spec Buy

481 0.00% Correct

PTPP 3,585 Buy

3,700 3.21% Correct

GGRM 44,450 Buy

46,600 4.84% Correct

SSMS 1,730 Buy

1,795 3.76% Correct

Ticker Last Technical Call 2-Oct-15 Chg (%) Recommendation

JCI 4,255 Weakening

4,208 -1.11% Correct

PTPP 3,580 Buy

3,585 0.14% Correct

ASII 5,275 Buy

5,125 -2.84% Incorrect

AALI 19,300 Buy

19,100 -1.04% Incorrect

TINS 680 Buy

665 -2.21% Incorrect

INCO 2,545 Buy

2,480 -2.55% Incorrect

GGRM 43,300 Buy

44,450 2.66% Correct

Ticker Last Technical Call 1-Oct-15 Chg (%) Recommendation

JCI 4,224 strengthened

4,255 0.73% Correct

TLKM 2,645 Buy

2,630 -0.57% Incorrect

TBIG 6,550 Buy

6,500 -0.76% Incorrect

ROTI 1,175 Buy

1,180 0.43% Correct

UNVR 38,000 Buy

38,800 2.11% Correct

INCO 2,185 Trd. Buy

2,545 16.48% Correct

TINS 640 Trd. Buy

680 6.25% Correct

Ticker Last Technical Call 30-Sep-15 Chg (%) Recommendation

JCI 4,178 strengthened

4,224 1.09% Correct

PTPP 3,475 Buy

3,465 -0.29% Incorrect

BBNI 4,070 Buy

4,135 1.60% Correct

BBRI 8,350 Buy

8,650 3.59% Correct

ASII 5,300 Buy

5,225 -1.42% Incorrect

GGRM 42,750 Sell

42,000 -1.75% Correct

UNTR 16,900 Sell

17,475 3.40% Incorrect

Ticker Last Technical Call 29-Sep-15 Chg (%) Recommendation

JCI 4,121 Weakening

4,178 1.41% Incorrect

PTPP 3,410 Buy

3,475 1.91% Correct

ROTI 1,145 Buy

1,125 -1.75% Incorrect

TBIG 6,400 Buy

6,400 0.00% Correct

AKRA 5,875 Sell

5,950 1.28% Incorrect

BBTN 1,000 Sell

995 -0.50% Correct

LSIP 1,400 Sell 1.07% Incorrect

Page 11: TRIM Daily · Technical Market View Crude oil futures lost ground on Monday in early Asian trading, as the global supply surplus pressured prices. Benchmark front-month Brent futures

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 11

Historical Technical Trading Ideas (3)

Ticker Last Technical Call 28-Sep-15 Chg (%) Recommendation

JCI 4,209 Rebound

4,121 -2.11% Incorrect

TLKM 2,655 Buy

2,600 -2.07% Incorrect

PTPP 3,470 Buy

3,410 -1.73% Incorrect

BBNI 4,110 Buy

3,940 -4.14% Incorrect

BBRI 8,550 Buy

8,300 -2.92% Incorrect

ADRO 585 Buy

550 -5.98% Incorrect

AKRA 6,000 Sell

5,875 -2.08% Correct

Ticker Last Technical Call 25-Sep-15 Chg (%) Recommendation

JCI 4,244 Weakening

4,209 -0.82% Correct

ITMG 9,500 Buy

9,150 -3.68% Incorrect

TBIG 6,550 Buy

6,500 -0.76% Incorrect

LSIP 1,320 Buy

1,400 6.06% Correct

AALI 17,925 Buy

17,950 0.14% Correct

INCO 1,870 Buy

2,080 11.23% Correct

TINS 620 Buy

645 4.03% Correct

Ticker Last Technical Call 23-Sep-15 Chg (%) Recommendation

JCI 4,344 Weakening

4,244 -2.29% Correct

LSIP 1,260 Buy

1,320 4.76% Correct

ASII 5,800 Buy

5,500 -5.17% Incorrect

TBIG 6,800 Buy

6,550 -3.68% Incorrect

ADRO 595 Buy

580 -2.52% Incorrect

SRIL 373 Buy

377 1.07% Correct

BWPT 254 Sell

246 -3.15% Correct

Ticker Last Technical Call 22-Sep-15 Chg (%) Recommendation

JCI 4,376 Rebound

4,344 -0.73% Incorrect

TLKM 2,730 Buy

2,700 -1.10% Incorrect

AALI 18,100 Buy

17,900 -1.10% Incorrect

ASII 5,800 Buy

5,800 0.00% Correct

BBNI 4,330 Buy

4,300 -0.69% Incorrect

DILD 625 Buy

610 -2.40% Incorrect

ROTI 1,175 Buy

1,150 -2.13% Incorrect

Ticker Last Technical Call 21-Sep-15 Chg (%) Recommendation

JCI 4,380 Weakening

4,376 -0.10% Correct

ROTI 1,175 Buy

1,175 0.00% Correct

SCMA 2,780 Buy

2,800 0.72% Correct

GGRM 42,825 Buy

43,025 0.47% Correct

TLKM 2,690 Buy

2,730 1.49% Correct

EXCL 2,395 Sell

2,415 0.84% Correct

WTON 895 Sell

885 -1.12% Correct

Page 12: TRIM Daily · Technical Market View Crude oil futures lost ground on Monday in early Asian trading, as the global supply surplus pressured prices. Benchmark front-month Brent futures

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 12

Historical Technical Trading Ideas (4)

Ticker Last Technical Call 18-Sep-15 Chg (%) Recommendation

JCI 4,378 strengthened

4,380 0.04% Correct

BBNI 4,350 Buy

4,285 -1.49% Incorrect

SCMA 2,700 Buy

2,780 2.96% Correct

UNVR 39,100 Buy

39,100 0.00% Correct

TINS 640 Buy

620 -3.13% Incorrect

WIKA 2,725 Sell

2,710 -0.55% Correct

ROTI 1,180 Sell

1,175 -0.42% Correct

Ticker Last Technical Call 17-Sep-15 Chg (%) Recommendation

JCI 4,333 Rebound

4,378 1.06% Correct

UNTR 18,850 Buy

18,675 -0.93% Incorrect

TLKM 2,720 Buy

2,680 -1.47% Correct

BBNI 4,315 Buy

4,350 0.81% Incorrect

PWON 348 Buy

351 0.86% Incorrect

SMGR 9,700 Buy

9,700 0.00% Correct

ASII 5,900 Buy

5,925 0.42% Correct

Ticker Last Technical Call 16-Sep-15 Chg (%) Recommendation

JCI 4,347 Weakening

4,333 -0.34% Correct

AKRA 5,575 Buy

5,575 0.00% Correct

UNTR 18,200 Buy

18,850 3.57% Correct

BBNI 4,360 Buy

4,315 -1.03% Incorrect

BMRI 8,700 Buy

8,650 -0.57% Incorrect

WIKA 2,675 Sell

2,660 -0.56% Correct

MPPA 2,290 Sell

2,245 -1.97% Correct

Ticker Last Technical Call 15-Sep-15 Chg (%) Recommendation

JCI 4,390 Weakening

4,347 -0.98% Correct

BBNI 4,450 Buy

4,360 -2.02% Correct

BBCA 12,100 Buy

11,950 -1.24% Correct

AKRA 5,750 Buy

5,575 -3.04% Incorrect

SMRA 1,330 Buy

1,300 -2.26% Incorrect

INTP 19,975 Sell

19,300 -3.38% Correct

PGAS 2,665 Sell

2,620 -1.69% Correct

Ticker Last Technical Call 14-Sep-15 Chg (%) Recommendation

JCI 4,360 Rebond

4,390 0.69% Correct

LSIP 1,170 Buy

1,210 3.42% Correct

BWPT 275 Buy

275 0.00% Correct

KLBF 1,550 Buy

1,545 -0.32% Incorrect

AALI 18,000 Sell

18,125 0.69% Incorrect

ADRO 565 Spec. Buy

570 0.88% Correct

PGAS 2,685 Sell

2,665 -0.74% Correct

Page 13: TRIM Daily · Technical Market View Crude oil futures lost ground on Monday in early Asian trading, as the global supply surplus pressured prices. Benchmark front-month Brent futures

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk - www.trimegah.com TRIM DAILY 13

Research Team

Sebastian Tobing, CFA

Head of Research & Institutional Business

([email protected])

Gina Novrina Nasution, CSA

Technical Analyst

([email protected])

Paula Ruth

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Angga Aditya Assaf

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Willinoy Sitorus

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

M. Dian Octiana

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Wisnu Budhiargo

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Patricia Gabriela

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Kevie Aditya

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Jennifer Yapply

Equity Analyst

([email protected])

Dini Agmivia Anggraeni

Fixed Income/Macro Analyst

([email protected])

Yeni Simanjuntak

On-the-ground Analyst

([email protected])

Rovandi

Research Associate

([email protected])

Institutional Sales Team

Daniel Dwi Seputro

Head of Institutional Equity Sales

([email protected])

Dewi Yusnita

Equity Institutional Sales

([email protected])

Meitawati

Equity Institutional Sales

([email protected])

Fachruly Fiater

Equity Institutional Sales

([email protected])

Henry Sidarta

Equity Institutional Sales

([email protected])

Raditya Andyono

Equity Institutional Sales

([email protected])

Nancy Pardede

Equity Institutional Sales

([email protected])

Retail Sales Team

JAKARTA AREA

Nathanael Benny Prasetyo

Head of Retail ECM

([email protected])

Ariawan Anwar

Artha Graha, Jakarta

([email protected])

Windra Djulnaily

Pluit, Jakarta

([email protected])

Ferry Zabur

Kelapa Gading, Jakarta

([email protected])

Eddy Sumarli

Puri Kencana, Jakarta

([email protected])

Very Wijaya

BSD, Tangerang

([email protected])

SUMATERA

Juliana Effendy

Medan, Sumatera Utara

([email protected])

Tantie Rivi Watie

Pekanbaru, Riau

([email protected])

EAST INDONESIA

Sonny Muljadi

Surabaya, Jawa Timur

([email protected]

Ni Made Dwi Hapsari Wijayanti

Denpasar, Bali

([email protected])

Ivan Jaka Perdana

Malang, Jawa Timur

([email protected])

Arifin Pribadi

Makasar, Sulawesi Selatan

([email protected])

CENTRAL JAVA, AREA

Agus Bambang Suseno

Solo, Jawa Tengah

([email protected])

Mariana Kusuma Wati

Semarang, Jawa Tengah

[email protected])

WEST JAVA

Asep Saepudin

Bandung, Jawa Barat

([email protected])

Ariffianto

Cirebon, Jawa Barat

([email protected])

Page 14: TRIM Daily · Technical Market View Crude oil futures lost ground on Monday in early Asian trading, as the global supply surplus pressured prices. Benchmark front-month Brent futures

PT Trimegah Securities Tbk

Gedung Artha Graha 18th Floor

Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav. 52-53

Jakarta 12190, Indonesia

t. +62-21 2924 9088

f. +62-21 2924 9150

www.trimegah.com

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purposes only. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy. This report has

been produced independently and the forecasts, opinions and expectations contained herein are entirely those of Trimegah Securities.

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