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8/14/2019 trimtabs BLS

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Copyright 2009 TrimTabs Investment Research. All rights reserved.

WEEKLY MACRO ANALYSIS

MADELINE SCHNAPP DAVID SANTSCHIDIRECTOR,MACROECONOMICRESEARCH EDITOR

JUNE 30,2009 VOLUME 6,NUMBER [email protected] +1(415)331-4400

Real Savings Rate 0.9%, Not BEAs 6.9%Consumers in Worse Shape Than Government Statistics IndicateTrimTabs Estimates U.S. Economy Sheds 472,000Jobs in June

Spotlight: Real Savings Rate 0.9%, Not BEAs 6.9%; Year-over-Year Growth in Wages and Salaries-4.8% in May, Not -1.1% as BEA Reports

The U.S. economy is in far worse shape than U.S. government statistics indicate. The Personal Income reporreleased Friday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) grossly overstates personal savings, wages andsalaries, and personal income. Real-time data indicates the personal savings rate was 2.8% in May, not 6.9% asthe BEA reports. Worse still, when savings is adjusted for the impact of the Making Work Pay tax credit andone-time stimulus payments to recipients of Social Security and other government retirement programs, the realsavings rate drops to 0.9%.

In addition, real-time tax data indicates wages and salaries fell 4.8% y-o-y in May, not 1.1% y-o-y as the BEAreports. And while the BEA reports that personal income rose 0.3% y-o-y in May, real-time tax data shows ifell 3.6% y-o-y. Consumers are in much worse shape than government statistics suggest and have little moneyleft over to repair their tattered balance sheets.

Bottom Line

In response to a question about a potential economic recovery, Warren Buffett quipped, You cant produce ababy in one month by getting nine women pregnant. We agree with Mr. Buffett. We do not expect economicgrowth to turn positive until sometime in 2010.

Real-time data shows the economy lost 472,000 jobs in June, far exceeding the revised 380,000 job loss in MayThe unemployment rate is likely to hit 9.7% to 9.8% in June, and it could hit 10.0% in July. Other indicatorsconfirm the labor markets weakness. Weekly unemployment claims and continuing unemployment claimsreversed course in this past week after declining for several weeks. While the TrimTabs Online Job PostingsIndex rose 3.2% in June, it is still consistent with an extremely weak labor market. Also, real-time dataindicates declines in wages and salaries are accelerating.

Mortgage rates pulled back in this past week, but they are still much higher than earlier this year. We believeforecasters pricing in a housing recovery by the end of 2009 will be in for a nasty surprise.


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TrimTabs Weekly Macro AnalysisJune 30, 2009Page 2 of 15


This Weeks Summary

Employment U.S. Economy Loses 472,000Jobs in June. Unemployment Rate Likely to Hit 9.7% to

9.8% in June and 10.0% in July. We estimate the U.S. economy shed 472,000 jobs in June after losing arevised 380,000jobs in May. Junes job loss will likely push the unemployment rate to 9.7% to 9.8% in Junefrom 9.4% in May. The TrimTabs Online Job Postings Index rose 3.2% in June after holding steady in MayWeekly unemployment claims jumped 15,000 in this past week to 627,000, keeping the four-week movingaverage above 600,000 for the twentieth consecutive week. Continuing unemployment claims increased 29,000to 6.74 million in the latest reporting week, just below the record high of 6.84 million reached two weeks ago.

Income Income Tax Withholdings Plunge Adjusted 5.8% Y-o-Y in June. Income tax withholdings fell5.8% y-o-y in June after dropping 4.8% y-o-y in May, indicating wage declines and job losses have acceleratedOther taxes plunged 33.5% y-o-y in the past four weeks after falling 33.6% y-o-y in May. Corporate incometaxes have fallen 35.6% y-o-y in the past four weeks after dropping 12.3% y-o-y in May.

Housing New and Existing Home Sales Jump 4.6% in Past Two Months, While Average Home PricesReach Highest Level since January. New and existing home sales jumped 108,000, or 2.2%, in MayMeanwhile, the inventory of unsold homes fell 148,000, or 3.5%. Mortgage rates fell 21 basis points to 5.38%in the latest reporting week, fueling an increase in both mortgage purchases and refinance applications.California foreclosure activity fell 19.8% in the past week, most likely in response to the new Californiaforeclosure law that went into effect June 15.

Spotlight: Real Savings Rate 0.9%, Not BEAs 6.9%; Year-over-Year Growth in Wages and Salaries-4.8% in May, Not -1.1% as BEA Reports

BEA Overestimates Personal Income in May, Inflating Personal Savings Rate

The latest Personal Income report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) presents an inaccurate pictureof the financial health of American consumers. According to the BEA, personal savings as a percentage ofpersonal disposable income was a whopping 6.9% in May, the highest since December 1993. For comparisonthe savings rate for all of 2008 averaged 1.8%. Our analysis based on real-time income tax deposits indicatesthe real savings rate is a paltry 0.9%. Consumers are in much worse shape than government statistics suggesand have little money left over to repair their tattered balance sheets.

Two temporary factors inflated the savings rate in May:

1. Individuals receiving Social Security and other qualifying government retirement programs received aone-time payment of $250, totaling about $160 billion annualized.

2. Incomes were elevated due to the Making Work Pay tax credit, which amounts to $60 billionannualized.

After adjusting for these two factors, the BEAs savings rate estimate drops to 4.8%.

Moreover, the BEA is overstating income from wages and salaries and income from non-wage sources, whichinflates the savings rate. Income tax deposits to the U.S. Treasury, which are reported in the Daily Treasury


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Statement, show the economy is contracting much faster than the BEA is reporting. Using this real-time datawe estimate the savings rate was only 2.8% in May. Backing out the impact of the Making Work Pay taxcredit and the one-time payout to Social Security and other government retirement beneficiaries in May, and the

savings rate drops to 0.9%.

The BEA does not use real-time data to compute its most recent estimates of wages and salaries. Instead, it usesthe Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), which is based on quarterly tax reports submitted tostate unemployment agencies. The QCEW covers more than 8 million employers subject to stateunemployment insurance laws, and it captures the wages and salaries of 99.7% of all workers. To computecurrent wages and salaries, the BEA interpolates and extrapolates the lagged QCEW data forward, using inputsfrom the Bureau of Labor Statistics to make necessary adjustments.

The May 2009 BEA personal income data is based on QCEW data from Q4 2008. Unfortunately, the QCEWdata does not fully reflect wage declines across the entire labor market. The QCEW is essentially an

unemployment survey. Most employers pay unemployment taxes on only a small portion of their workerssalaries, and most of these payments are made at the beginning of the year. So the QCEW data from Q4 2008only captures unemployment taxes paid by workers hired late in the year, not the entire workforce.

The BEA reported that in Mayin the midst of the worst economic downturn since the 1930spersonalincome rose 0.3% y-o-y, while wages and salaries fell only 1.1% y-o-y. When we incorporate real-time datainto the results, we find that personal income fell 3.6% y-o-y, while wages and salaries dropped 4.8% y-o-y. Inaddition, personal savings drops from a reported $769 billion, or 6.9% of disposable personal income, to $302billion, or 2.8% of disposable personal income.

Personal Income (Billions of $)

Reported byBureau of

EconomicAnalysis - May

2008

Reported byBureau of

EconomicAnalysis - May

2009

Reported byTrimTabs Using

Income TaxWithholdings -

May 2009

Personal Income $12,220 $12,261 $11,776

Less: Personal Current Taxes $1,148 $1,172 $1,154

Equals: Disposable Personal Income $11,072 $11,089 $10,622

Less: Personal Outlays $10,544 $10,320 $10,320

Equals: Personal Savings $528 $769 $302

Personal Savings as % of Disposable Personal Income 4.8% 6.9% 2.8%

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis www.bea.gov and TrimTabs Investment Research www.trimtabs.com

The BEA will continue to overstate wages and salaries, personal income, and the savings rate until QCEW datafrom Q1 2009 is available in August. The Q1 2009 data will provide more accurate data on wages and salariesbecause unemployment taxes are paid on all employees in the first quarter of each year.

We asked BEA economists about the huge discrepancy between the tax data and their income estimates. Theydid not have a ready answer. One BEA economist did point out that the quarterly tax data the BEA collects
http://www.bea.gov/http://www.bea.gov/http://www.bea.gov/http://www.trimtabs.com/http://www.trimtabs.com/http://www.trimtabs.com/http://www.bea.gov/


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confirms the year-over-year declines that we are measuring. We believe real-time tax data is a better measureof wages and salaries than the BEAs analysis using six-month-old data.

BEA Consistently Underestimates Income Growth in Expansions and Overestimates Income Growth inContractions

We compared the BEAs initial personal income estimates from 1997 through May 2009 to its revisedestimates. We found that the BEA consistently provides policymakers and budget forecasters with aninaccurate picture of the economys health. Since the BEA uses lagged data to calculate its initial estimates, iunderestimates income in expansions and overestimates income in contractions.

The graph below shows the difference between the BEAs initial estimate of personal income and its revisedestimates of personal income from 1997 through May 2009.

To summarize, from January 2001 through May 2001, the BEA underestimated personal income. From June2001 through October 2004, the BEA overestimated personal income. From November 2004 through May2007, the BEA underestimated personal income (the big downward spike in August 2005 was due to HurricaneKatrina). Finally, the BEA has been overestimating personal income since June 2007.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis www.bea.gov

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

BEA Personal Income Revisions (%)

January 1997 through May 2009
http://www.bea.gov/http://www.bea.gov/


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Employment

U.S. Employment

Our real-time indicators suggest the U.S. economy lost 472,000 jobs in June after shedding 380,000 jobs inMay. Our proprietary model uses income tax withholdings to compute real-time employment. In addition tojob losses, two other factors affected year-over-year growth in withholdings in May:

1. Wage deflation. Our employment calculation for June assumes wage deflation was 1.5%. Since thebeginning of this year, employers have been reducing weekly hours or cutting wages rather than layingoff employees. We estimate that 8% of companies have cut wages by about 10%. In a normal growthyear, wage inflation is between 3.0% to 4.0%.

2. Making Work Pay tax credit and Cobra reimbursement. We increase year-over-year growth in

withholdings by 4.0% to account for the Making Work Pay tax credit, which employers began toimplement in March. The Cobra reimbursement plan was implemented on April 1.

We estimate the economy shed 5.3 million jobs in the past 12 months, the largest annual job loss in our recordsdating to 1970. Table A.1 in the Appendix provides details of the employment calculation for June.

Source: TrimTabs Investment Research www.trimtabs.comand Bureau of Labor Statistics www.bls.gov

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0

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GrowthinEmployment-NumberofNewJobs

Month

TrimTabs Estimate of Employment Growth

January 2006 Through June 2009
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TrimTabs Online Jobs Postings Index

The TrimTabs Online Job Postings Index rose 0.4 points, or 0.6%, to 64.8 in the week ended June 26. Theindex has risen 2.0 points, or 3.2%, in June after holding steady in May, suggesting online job demand has hit abottom. This trend is supported by the monthly Monster Index, which has been holding steady since January.

Source: TrimTabs Investment Research www.trimtabs.com

Unemployment Claims

Seasonally adjusted unemployment claims climbed 15,000 to 627,000 in the week ended June 19 from an

adjusted 612,000 in the previous week. Weekly unemployment claims fell for four consecutive weeks fromearly May through early June, then they reversed course two weeks ago. The four-week moving average edgedup 500 to 615,750 from an adjusted 617,250 in the previous week. The four-week moving average hasexceeded 600,000 for 20 consecutive weeks, signaling large monthly job losses.

Continuing unemployment claims increased 29,000 in the latest reporting week to 6.74 million. The latesweeks increase puts continuing claims just below the record high of 6.84 million reached two weeks earlierHigh weekly unemployment claims will keep continuing claims elevated.

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WeeklyUnemploymentClaim

s

TrimTabsOnlineJobsIndex

Week

TrimTabs Online Jobs Index vs. Weekly Unemployment Claims

March 2, 2001, through June 26, 2009

TrimTabs Online Jobs Index

Weekly Unemployment Claims - 4

Week Moving Average

Recessions
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Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics www.bls.gov

Income

Federal tax deposits are among the most reliable measures of the economys health because they mirror shifts inincome and employment. These deposits indicate incomes are falling much faster than the government isreporting.

We track three categories of daily tax deposits: income taxes withheld from employee salaries; taxes on othersources of income such as capital gains, dividends, and self-employment income; and corporate income taxesThis data is extremely volatile from day-to-day, but year-over-year comparisons can produce a reliable snapshotof the economys health.

Income Tax Withholdings

Income tax withholdings dropped 11.9% y-o-y in the past two weeks and 10.0% y-o-y in the past four weeks.Withholdings fell 9.8% y-o-y in June after falling 8.8% y-o-y in May. Adjusting for the Making Work Paytax credit, withholdings fell 7.9% y-o-y in the past two weeks, 6.0% y-o-y in the past four weeks, and 5.8% y-o-y in June.

We estimate that after-tax income from wages and salaries will be down about $260 billion this year relative tolast.

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ContinuingUnemploymentClaims

WeeklyUnemploymentClaims

Date

Weekly Unemployment Claims and Continuing Unemployment ClaimsJanuary 1998 through June 19, 2009

Weekly Unemployment Insurance Claims - 4Week Moving Average

Continuing Claims
http://www.bls.gov/http://www.bls.gov/http://www.bls.gov/http://www.bls.gov/


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Other Income Tax Not Withheld

Other income tax not withheldpaid on self-employment income and capital gains on stock and real estate

transactionsplunged 33.7% y-o-y in June after falling 33.4% y-o-y in May. So far this quarter, other taxesare down 35.6% y-o-y.

We estimate that income from other sources will be down $430 billion this year relative to last.

Corporate Income Taxes and Refunds

Corporate tax payments fell 35.5% y-o-y in June after falling 12.3% y-o-y in May. Corporate income taxes arevery low in May, so we typically ignore the May results. So far this quarter, corporate tax payments are down37.7% y-o-y.

So far this year, corporate income tax refunds have totaled $71.4 billion, up $35.9 billion, or 101.2%, from$35.5 billion in the same period last year. Corporate refunds have amounted to 65% of the corporate incometaxes collected this year.

Table A.2 in the Appendix summarizes tax data from 1999 through 2009.


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9%

Year-Over-YearGrowth(%)

Time Period

Growth in Income Tax Withholdings of Salaried Employees (Year-Over-Year - %)

Q1 2007 Through June 2009 (Projected)

Contraction Phase

Capitulation Phase


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Housing

Mortgage Applications

Freddie Mac reported that in the week ended June 19, the average interest rate on a 30-year mortgage retreated21 basis points to 5.38%. Last week, mortgage rates edged up 4 basis points to 5.42%. As a result of lowermortgage rates in the past two weeks, the Mortgage Applications Composite Index gained 6.6% to 548.2.

Breaking this index into its components, the Mortgage Purchase Applications Index increased 7.3% to 280.3Meanwhile, the Mortgage Refinance Applications Index, which is more sensitive to mortgage rates, plunged5.9% to 2116.3. In the current reporting week, mortgage refinance applications accounted for 54% of almortgage applications and 53% of prospective loan volume. Demand for mortgage refinancings has fallensteadily since mid-April, when refinance applications accounted for 79.7% of all applications and 80.2% ofprospective loan volume.

The Federal Reserve has been aggressively buying mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and Treasury securitiesto try to lower borrowing costs mortgage rates. In the week ended June 26, the Federal Reserve purchased$22.3 billion in MBS and $10.8 billion in Treasuries. Since the beginning of this year, the Fed has purchased$606.9 billion in MBS and $180.8 billion in Treasuries. The Fed stated in this past week that it would noincrease its purchases of Treasuries. As a result, we think mortgage rates are unlikely to drop below 5%, whichwill put some pressure on the housing market.

Source: Mortgage Bankers Association of America -www.mbaa.org/newsandmedia

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500525

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MortgageApplicationsIndexValue

Week

Weekly Mortgage Applications Purchase Index

January 5, 1998, through June 19, 2009
http://www.mbaa.org/newsandmediahttp://www.mbaa.org/newsandmediahttp://www.mbaa.org/newsandmediahttp://www.mbaa.org/newsandmedia


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California Foreclosure Trends

Foreclosure trends in California offer insight into national foreclosure trends and the health of the housingmarket. California is the nations most populous state and has the highest number of subprime and Alt-Amortgages and the highest number of distressed homes.

In the week ended June 26, there were 4,278 new foreclosures in California, down 1,053, or 19.8% from 5,331in the previous week. The rapid decline in foreclosures in the past two weeks suggests the new Californiaforeclosure law that went into effect on June 15 is having its intended impact.

Foreclosure activity may decline for a few more weeks as lenders sort through the requirements of the new lawThen we expect foreclosures to rise again. While the subprime wave of mortgage defaults has peaked and isnow declining, holders of Alt-A mortgages are beginning to default in increasing numbers. About one-third of

Alt-A mortgage holders are facing interest rate resets this year and will not be able to refinance because currentproperty values are, on average, 25% below current loan values.

Source: Foreclosure Radar www.foreclosureradar.com

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NumberofForeclosures

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Weekly Trend of California Foreclosures

September 2006 through June 26, 2009

Passage of CA Law SB1137

Lengthens Foreclosure

Notification Process

Major Lenders End

Foreclosure Moratoria

New California Law

Lengthens Foreclosure

Process 90 Days
http://www.foreclosureradar.com/http://www.foreclosureradar.com/http://www.foreclosureradar.com/http://www.foreclosureradar.com/


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New and Existing Home Sales

New and existing home sales rose 108,000, or 2.2%, to 5.00 million in May, up from 4.98 million in April. In

the past two months, new and existing homes sales increased 4.6%, offering some hope that the housing markethas bottomed. In another positive sign, the increase in home sales in May caused the inventory of unsold homesto decline 146,000, or 3.5%, to 4.1 million. May sales pushed the supply of unsold homes to 9.6 months from10.2 months in April. The new California foreclosure law will probably cause inventory to decline furtherreducing pressure on prices this summer.

The average sales price of unsold homes nationwide rose $6,800, or 3.3%, in May, the biggest increase sinceJanuary.

Source: Census Bureau www.census.gov

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Total New and Existing Home Sales -

http://www.census.gov/http://www.census.gov/http://www.census.gov/http://www.census.gov/


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Source: Census Bureau www.census.gov

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thsSupplyofUnsoldHomes

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Inventory of Unsold New and Existing Homes versus Months Supply of Unsold New and Existing Homes


Total Inventory of Unsold New

and Existing Homes - Left Axis

Months Supply of Unsold

Homes -Right Axis
http://www.census.gov/http://www.census.gov/http://www.census.gov/http://www.census.gov/


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Table A.1 TrimTabs Employment Model Indicates 472,000 Jobs Lost in June

Types of Data

FactsTrimTabs Assumptions

Calculated Results

1. Growth in Income Tax Withholdings ($Millions) Source

Income Tax Withholdings, Salaried EmployeesJune 2009 (June 1, 2009 through June 26, 2009) 119,615 U.S. Treasury

Income Tax Withholdings, Salaried Employees

June 2008 (June 2, 2008 through June 27, 2008) 132,579 U.S. Treasury

Year-over-Year Growth in Income TaxWithholdings -12,964 Calculated Result

% Year-over-Year Growth in Income TaxWithholdings -9.78% Calculated Result

2. Breakdown of Growth in Income TaxWithholdings ($ Millions) Source

Annual Wage Growth and Bracket Creep forExisting Employees = -0.0%. June adjustment forwage declines, wage furloughs and "Making Work

Pay Tax Credit" Program = 4.0% + 1.5% -5.50% TrimTabs Assumption

Annualized Employment Growth Based onIncome Tax Withholdings -4.28%

Calculated Result AssumingLower Adjustment Factor

3. Implications for Growth in Non-Farm U.S.Payroll Employment Source

Total U.S. Employment in June 2009 132,458,000

Model Estimate: TrimTabsand Bureau of LaborStatistics

Annualized Employment Growth Based onIncome Tax Withholdings -4.28% -5,666,978 Calculated Result

Estimate of Total U.S. Employment in June 2009 131,985,752 Calculated Result

Estimate of Monthly Employment Growth forJune 2009 -472,248 Calculated Result



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Table A.2 Income Tax Withholdings Plunge Adjusted 5.8% Year-over-Year in June

Withheld Income and Employment

Taxes (Millions of $)

Other Income Tax

Not Withheld (Millions of $)

Corporate Income Taxes

(Millions of $)

Period %Change %Change %Chan

1999 vs. 1998 1,297,090 1,188,460 9.1% 338,034 312,505 8.2% 207,560 206,471 0.

2000 vs. 1999 1,394,882 1,297,090 7.5% 388,804 338,034 15.0% 235,032 207,560 13.

2001 vs. 2000 1,439,709 1,394,882 3.2% 413,469 388,804 6.3% 188,202 235,032 -19.

2002 vs. 2001 1,384,557 1,439,709 -3.8% 318,550 413,469 -23.0% 185,473 188,202 -1.

2003 vs. 2002 1,390,416 1,384,557 0.4% 277,261 318,550 -13.0% 193,620 185,473 4.

2004 vs. 2003 1,442,125 1,390,216 3.7% 282,023 277,261 1.7% 236,418 193,620 22.

2005 vs. 2004 1,532,489 1,442,125 6.3% 352,272 282,023 24.9% 314,662 236,418 33.

2006 vs. 2005 1,640,105 1,532,489 7.0% 425,570 352,272 20.8% 384,110 314,662 22.

2007 vs. 2006 1,761,333 1,640,105 7.4% 468,344 425,570 10.1% 385,108 384,110 0.

2008 vs. 2007 1,783,256 1,761,333 1.2% 484,008 468,344 3.3% 310,339 385,108 -19.

366 Days Ago This YearVs. Last Year

2009 vs. 2008 1,710,513 1,769,732 -3.3% 366,170 487,470 -24.9% 250,305 366,058 -31.

2009 vs. 2008 YTD 823,462 866,149 -4.9% 264,504 381,510 -30.7% 109,776 169,544 -35.

Q1-08 vs. Q1-07 510,352 493,413 3.4% 88,334 82,220 7.4% 52,502 63,703 -17.

Q2-08 vs. Q2-07 433,246 422,042 2.7% 294,294 280,503 4.9% 117,402 125,027 -6.

Q3-08 vs. Q3-07 422,189 410,672 2.8% 74,337 76,872 -3.3% 75,412 92,671 -18.

Q4-08 vs. Q4-07 435,841 442,082 -1.4% 26,125 28,749 -9.1% 64,755 103,707 -37.

Q1-09 vs. Q1-08 467,003 493,205 -5.3% 76,445 88,334 -13.5% 36,896 52,502 -29.

Q2-09 vs. Q2-08 QTD 382,169 420,325 -9.1% 188,787 293,176 -35.6% 73,049 117,209 -37.

Apr. 2009 vs. 2008 126,805 138,840 -8.7% 143,518 224,891 -36.2% 26,509 47,939 -44.

May 2009 vs. 2008 135,749 148,906 -8.8% 5,639 8,470 -33.4% 6,910 7,875 -12.

June 2009 vs. 2008 MTD 119,615 132,579 -9.8% 39,630 59,815 -33.7% 39,630 61,395 -35.

Period 2009 2008 %Change 2009 2008 %Change 2009 2008 %Chan

May 29 - Jun 4, 09 40,260 43,033 -6.4% 1,543 2,280 -32.3% 322 906 -64.

May 30 - June 5, 08

June 5 - June 11, 09 22,419 25,247 -11.2% 1,543 2,280 -32.3% 322 906 -64.

June 6 - June 12, 08

June 12 - June 18, 09 33,834 39,244 -13.8% 16,108 26,563 -39.4% 37,741 57,515 -34.

June 13 - June 19, 08

June 19 - June 25, 09 23,972 26,382 -9.1% 18,026 24,846 -27.4% 477 1,000 -52.June 20 - June 26, 08

Two Week Total 57,806 65,626 -11.9% 34,134 51,409 -33.6% 38,218 58,515 -34.

Four Week Total 120,485 133,906 -10.0% 37,220 55,969 -33.5% 38,862 60,327 -35.



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Appendix B

Table B.1 Recent TrimTabs Macro Spotlight Articles

1. April 21, 2009 Federal Reserves Purchases of Mortgage-Backed Securities Provide Big Boost toMortgage Market

2. April 28, 2009 Surge in Treasury Issuance Gives Federal Reserve Huge Headache

3. May 5, 2009 Personal Savings Rate in March 1.6%, Not 4.2% as BEA Reports

4. May 19, 2009 Stock Market Rally Probably Fueled by Some of $83 Billion Withdrawn from M2Savings in April

5. May 26, 2009 As Risk Appetite Improves, Foreign Purchases of U.S. Stocks Surge in March 2009

6. June 2, 2009 Year-over-Year Growth in Wages and Salaries in April -5.3%, Not -0.8% as BEAReports

7. June 9, 2009 Changes to Our Wage Inflation Assumptions Will Make Our Employment EstimatesMore Accurate

8. June 16, 2009 Savings from Mortgage Refinancing Disappearing as Alt-A Default Wave Builds

9. June 23, 2009 Investors Stuff Money under the Mattress: U.S. Treasuries and FDIC-Insured

Savings Accounts Get $615 Billion from March through May

10.June 30, 2009 Real Savings Rate 0.9%, Not BEAs 6.9%; Year-over-Year Growth in Wages andSalaries -4.8% in May, Not -1.1% as BEA Reports

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