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M. Fiorino :: 63rd IHC St. Petersburg, FL 20000304
Tropical Cyclone diagnostic developments at ESRL –tracking does matter…
Mike [email protected]
Assimilation and Modeling Branch
Global Systems Division
Earth System Research Laboratory
Boulder, CO
4 May 2009
M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504
TC diagnostics…
good tropicals = good tropics – good
tropics = good models…
tctrack – where‟s the storms?
tcstruct – sfc wind structure
tcfilt – kurihara et al „vortectomy‟
tromboning & windshield wipering
run-to-run consistency – model v ofcl
rehosting of .F diagnostic routines as
openGrADS „user defined extensions‟
M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504
SHEM 2009 – 46% below normal activity
M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504
% improve ECMWF over CON
http://ecmwf.int/publications/newsletter
s/pdf/118.pdf
SHEM 2009
M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504
01W – kujira – 2009050406
M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504
2009050400 – FIM (GFS) sfc wind anal τ=0
M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504
verification – 72 h fc v an
M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504
tcww3 – php interface to NRL graphics
M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504
Sig Wave z – NOGAPS + JTWC TC
M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504
GFS 2009050400 72-h fc v an – formation
M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504
FIM8 (dx~30km) fc v an -- formation
M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504
ECMWF (awips) fc v an – formation
M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504
tcstruct – GFS sfc forecast
M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504
run-to-run consistency
M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504
tcstuct – radial wind profiles
M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504
tcfilt – “vortectomy”
M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504
tcfilt – kurihara et al 1993
M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504
TC tracking – constraints
make a forecast
track the tropical (low failure rate)
represent the operational definition
of the center…
multiple centers
wind v mass
mid v low
M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504
ECMWF 2008 LANT mf v ec v tm trackers
M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504
% gain(loss) mf v tm tracker – GFS 2008 LANT
M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504
implementation of .F TC diag
openGrADS2.0 and 1.10 user-defined extensions
in the form of a library write separate
application or run in grads
user-defined commands: mfhilo – find max/min using three methods
tcprop -- averaging in annulus
user-defined functions smth2d – Shuman 2-D smoother-desmoother
fish – Ψ / Χ
uv2vt – u,v (cart) u,v (cylindrical)
M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504
mfhilo/tcprop for 01W 2009050212
M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504
Future directions…
why ECMWF doing so well vis-à-vis CON
diagnostics of conv precip – comp to CPC QMORPH satellite precip
FIM model experiments with conv physics (Grell)
tracking diagnostics
sfc center
upper trop lows – wv imagery
rehost other .F…
M. Fiorino :: HFIP TC diag wkshp. Miami, FL 20090504
upper-level flow 2009050400
