Troubled NeighborsTroubled BordersTroubled Region

Security Dynamic in FATA and Pakistan’s Border with

Afghanistan

Presented by:

Imtiaz Gul, Chairman

Center for Research and Security Studies

Islamabad, Pakistan

Four Parts

Part-I: FATA & People.

Part-II:Militants in FATA

Part-III: Pakistani Security Dynamic

Part-IV:Recommendations

FATA & People

FATA: Self-Realization in Govt.?

“We have treated tribal people like caged monkeys for decades. We are responsible for their plight

today”

(Former NWFP Governor, Ali Muhammad Jan Orakzai)

What is FATA?

Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA)• 27,200 skm challenging mountainous & hilly

terrain• Divided into 7 “Agencies” with 3.5 million popul.• Disputed border 2560 kms “Durand Line” between

Pakistan and Afghanistan since 1947• Extremely backward, poverty 90%; literacy below

15%; unemployment 60%; industrial economy 0.3%; agricultural base 11%

Major FATA Tribes

• Four major tribes, with over a 100 sub-tribes• Afridis:

– Eight sub-tribes and dozens sub-sub-tribes

• Shinwaris: – Four sub-tribes

• Mohmands: – Eleven sub-tribes with several sub-sub-tribes

• Wazirs: – Four sub-tribes

Agencies and TribesSr. Agency Major Tribe Trouble Nature Trouble Level

1 Bajaur Tarklani, Utmankhel

Militancy Very High

2 North Waziristan

Utmanzai Wazir, Daur

Militancy & Tribal Very High

3 South Wazirsitan

Ahmedzai Wazir, Mehsud

Militancy Very High

4 Khyber Afridi, Shinwari Militancy High

5 Kurram Toori, Bangash Sectarian High

6 Mohmand Mohmand, Safi Militancy & Tribal High

7 Orakzai Orakzai Tribal Very Low

Governance Structure in FATA

• Two tiered under colonial Frontier Crimes Regulations (FCR) of 1901 via:– Political Agents: PA is the pivot of the entire

administrative setup of the tribal areas, is in charge of the tribes within a Political Agency. 7 in total

– Maliks: The second most important pillar of governance and social control; about 30,000 tribal elders and notables who act as a bridge between the PA and their respective tribes when situation arises

FCR: A Review• The FCR canonizes the concept of collective

responsibility i.e. the whole tribe or sub-tribe is held responsible for any crime against Pakistan with deadline that either the tribe punishes, coughs up the criminal or would face the government’s wrath

• Applied selectively & created favorites• Government looked the other way when

favorites ran guns, drugs and smuggled• Favorites hosted criminals and crooks with

government expecting that tribesmen will not attack the government.

A “Tip” of the FCR Iceberg• The classification of a tribesman as almost a sub-

human is tragic. Under Section 38 (4), a tribesman may be killed and no questions are asked.

• No judicial oversight is permitted, since there is a bar to the jurisdiction of superior courts.

• No legal framework or recourse available to the population. The Jirga or the elders decide everything

• It primarily benefits the government but the entry but making the law of tribal honor code of Pashtunwali has opened government as a party against whom “Badal” (revenge) can be taken

Contd

• Article 247 of Pakistan’s Constitution states

“No act of the of the Parliament shall apply to FATA unless the President directs”

“Neither the Supreme Court nor a High court shall exercise any jurisdiction in Tribal area”

What are People Like (Socially)?

• Most of the tribesmen are staunch believers in a strict tribal version of Islam

• Very/very strong commitment to their social code of conduct and honor and could sacrifice their life guarding and acting upon that

• Couldn’t reconcile with post Sept 11 situation i.e. yesterday’s fabled and Holy Warrior (please watch Rambo-III & Charlie Wilson’s War) is today’s horrific terrorist

• Hate Pakistan’s and America’s policy-hypocrisy; this combines with an oppressive system of FCR, poverty and tribal sense of honor pressured by “Badal” and thus militancy

What do they Believe?

• America is evil and evil are all those who are helping US waging a war against their religion, belief, culture and people in the name of war against terror

• Anyone who stands against the US and her supporters are the Holy Warriors and thus must be helped under the tribal culture

• They see diplomatic pragmatism as betrayal of to the tribal code of honor and conduct

• Tribal code of life is better than liberal code of life and it should be protected with honor

Must remember: the tribal way of living and thinking do not make tribal people

into terrorists or supporters of Taliban or Al-Qaeda. It is pivotal to separate

terrorists from tribals.

NATO, ISAF & US attacks on Pakistani soil will JUST NOT HELP. Pakistan Army’s achievements in FATA are

socially-zeroed each time the US and NATO strike

11:Militants in

FATA

Active Militant Organizations in FATA• Based in FATA:

– Tehreek-e- Taliban Pakistan (TTP)– Lashkare Islam– Anasarul Islam– Amr Bil Maroof o Nahi Analmunkir (PVPV)– Tehreeke Nifaze Shariate Mohammedi (TNSM),– TTP Jamat-ul-Ahrar (a splinter group of main TTP)

• From Pakistan: – Jaishe Mohammed– Harkatul Mujahideen– Lashkare Jhangvi

• Foreign:– Taliban, Haqqani Network, Hezbe Islami (Afghanistan)– IMU (Uzbekistan), Chinese (ETIM), Chechens and Arabs

“Social” Tactics of Militants• Recruitment:

– Cite Pakistani forces as American proxies killing innocent Pashtuns and Muslims in FATA

– Issuing religious decrees of apostasy against Pak-Army

– Radicalize the youth, especially who lost their families– Use well connected madrassa system to pray on

youth• The Fear Factor:

– Openly and socially punish people at will– People forced to watch their “justice dispensation”– Opponents conveniently termed as spies & beheaded

• Fundraising:– Alleged foreign intelligence funding e.g. Mehsud’s

militia’s annual budget is at least Rs. 5 billion– Protection money to gun/drug runners, smugglers– Via “sharia” tax to wage war against enemies

Pakistani Security Dynamic

since 9/11

Considerations• The total number of US-led coalition, NATO

and ISAF as well as those of Afghan forces along the Durand Line prior to US exit (Coalition and US 73,000+ 60000 ANA)

• Why don’t US drones target militants when on move? (Gen. Kayani, Pakistani COAS)

• Reverse Infiltration ?

• Is Pakistan securer than it was when 9/11 happened after getting sucked into this questionable war? NO

What has Pakistan Done?

• Extremely trough and rugged terrain• More than 120,000 troops along the 2,560 km

Durand Line• 1,000 military check posts with 100 only in North

Waziristan & 93 in South Waziristan• 12,000 troops operating in Bajaur Agency in

addition to the deployed along the Durand Line• Many peaks higher than 8,000 feet• Deployment continues and is even increased

despite extreme local conditions• Intelligence networks tripled• Quick (re)action force deployed• Infantry backed by artillery, air power and jets

(Bajaur)

Cost to State of Pakistan

“Mismanaged “war on terror” has stirred extremism, threatening to

rip Pakistan apart”(Ahmed Rashid, Yale Global, Sept 19)

$80 billion cost of war for Pakistan in War on Terror (Express Tribune)

What has Happened?

• 20,000 civilians killed in WoT & more than 6000 troops lost their lives

• More than 400 suicide attacks since Jan 2007• 800,000 out of 3.5 million people have fled the

region since 2006 (Ahmed Rashid, Yale Global, Sept 19)

• In 2014 alone the umber of IDPs reached 800,000 only in Waziristan when the army decided to launch its final military operation (Dawn, July 8, 2014)

Contd

• Political leadership targeted; former President Musharraf was targeted twice, Benazir Bhutto was assassinated by TTP in December, 2007

• Aftab Sherpao, Molana Fazlur Rehman and Ameer Muqam came under suicide attacks

• Political parties like ANP are the routine target of militant hit squads

• Sectarian violence increased

What has Happened?

• Total Fatalities: 55673• Civilians: 19934• Security Forces: More than 6000• Terrorists: 29726

Source: http://www.satp.org/satporgtp/countries/pakistan/database/casualties.htm

GWOT Stakeholders MUST Understand

“If we can’t do it, you can’t do it”

(Oct. 4: Asif Ali Zardari, President of Pakistan in an interview to Wall Street Journal, seeking support

against terrorism)

Recommendations

What could be done?

• Unless there is peace in FATA it will act like a black hole for whole of Pakistan

“A collective approach of parliament is required either to reform or repeal the draconian FCR, which gives absolute powers to the political administration” (Lateef Afridi)

• FCR has been amended for 11 times most recently in 2011 when adult franchise was introduced but nothing substantial achieved

• Judiciary and administration need to be separated in FATA

• Article 247 of the constitution must be amended so people of FATA can be treated equally and with equity

• After the army intervention in FATA the role of PA is limited and there’s confusion over jurisdiction between different tiers of the government (Rustam

Shah Mohmand) • Women have no rights in FATA and FCR

has no answer for their plight, there has been legislations for women throughout Pakistan but none for women of FATA

• The ‘Collective Responsibility’ clause of FCR when a crime of individual is imposed on the whole of a clan reminds of stone-age

• FCR Benefiting Terrorists: FCR was a weak law and post 9/11 it became more weaker, when militants of all shades came here for shelter and took benefit of a vacuum created by FCR

• Local Bodies elections can also reduce many ills in FATA, thus empowering people at the very grass root level enabling them to stand for their rights.

• Future scenario of FATA must be considered in consultation with the people of FATA either they want a separate province or merger with KPK