TSUNAMI HAZARD ASSESSMENT

FOR DIBBA OMAN AND DIBBA

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES

El-Hussain I, Al-Habsi Z, Omira R, Al-Bulushi K, Deif A, Al-Rawas G, Mohammad AME, Baptista MA

OUTLINE

1. INTORDUCTION 2. PERPARATION OF TSUNAMI MODEL

2.1 Building the DEM

2.2 Nested grids

3. METHODOLOGY 3.1 Deterministic Tsunami Hazard Assessment

Initial condition

Numerical simulation (NSWING)

3.2 Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment

4. RESULTS 4.1 Deterministic Tsunami Hazard Assessment

4.2 Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment

5. CONCLUSIONS

1.INTORDUCTION

Tsunami hazard assessment in spot light Collaboration research study between SQU and UAEU The ultimate goal This study we used state-of-the-art techniques to model tsunami generation,

propagation and impact based on near field earthquake sources both far field and non-seismic sources are not subjected in this study

2. PERPARATION OF TSUNAMI MODEL

2.1 Building the DEM

The DEM was generated from different Data sets: GEPCO (30 seconds arc resolution) Aster (30 meter resolution) Nautical maps Topography grid (5 meter resolution) Bathymetry grid (5 meter resolution)

2. PERPARATION OF TSUNAMI MODEL

2.1 Building the DEM

A 3D view of DEM 10m Resolution for DIBBA

The resultant DEM is a 10 m resolution grid which combine both bathymetry and topography data

2. PERPARATION OF TSUNAMI MODEL

2.2 Nested grids Smooth propagation Numerical stability Refinement factor of 5 Four resolution grid layers: layer 1: 1250 m layer 2: 250 m layer 3: 50 m layer 4: 10 m

Initial Condition

3. METHODOLOGY

3.1 DETERMINISTIC TSUNAMI HAZARD ASSESSMENT (DTHA)

Scenario MSZ Length (km)

Width (km)

Slip(m) Dip(0) Strike(0) Rake(0) Mw

1 Eastern 461 110 11.1 7 263 90 8.8

2 Western 30 20 1.8 7 281 90 6.9

Historical MSZ Tsunami

Length (km)

Width (km)

Slip(m) Dip(0) Strike(0) Rake(0) Mw

27 Nov. 1945 150 70 6.6 7 246 90 8.1

Initial Sea Level Deformation for Eastern Makran Subduction Zone Mw8.8 Scenario

Generation of initial sea level deformation grid . A profile graph AB plot perpendicular to the fault showing a maximum initial wave height of 4.2m

DIBBA A

B

DIBBA

A B

Numerical Simulation

In this study, a Numerical code called NSWING (Non-linear Shallow water model with nested grids) is used to compute tsunami wave forms that includes the discretization and explicit leap-frog finite difference scheme to solve the shallow water equations in spherical coordinates

Regional Tsunami animation of EMSZ Mw8.8 Scenario

3.1 DETERMINISTIC TSUNAMI HAZARD ASSESSMENT (DTHA)

The tsunami impact descried in term of maximum wave height, flow depth ,run-up, drawback and inundation distance.

3.2 PROBABILISTIC TSUNAMI HAZARD ASSESSMENT (PTHA)

Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment approach consists in considering the recurrence rate of earthquake scenarios with different magnitudes. The result is a probability of exceeding a certain wave height/flow depth in a given periods.

Num Grid name Mw Scenario Number

Fault location

length width slip Dip Duration

hours

1 mw7.9sc01 7.9 sc1 East 100 70 5 7 6

2 mw7.9sc02 7.9 sc2 East 100 70 5 7 6

3 mw7.9sc03 7.9 sc3 East 100 70 5 7 6

4 mw7.9sc04 7.9 sc4 East 100 70 5 7 6

5 mw7.9sc05 7.9 sc5 East 100 70 5 7 6

6 mw7.9sc06 7.9 sc6 East 100 70 5 7 6

7 mw7.9sc07 7.9 sc7 East 100 70 5 7 6

8 mw7.9sc08 7.9 sc8 East 100 70 5 7 6

9 mw7.9sc09 7.9 sc9 West 100 70 5 7 4

10 mw7.9sc10 7.9 sc10 West 100 70 5 7 4

11 mw7.9sc11 7.9 sc11 West 100 70 5 7 4

12 mw7.9sc12 7.9 sc12 West 100 70 5 7 4

13 mw7.9sc13 7.9 sc13 West 100 70 5 7 4

14 mw7.9sc14 7.9 sc14 West 100 70 5 7 4

15 mw8.1sc01 8.1 sc1 East 150 70 6 7 6

16 mw8.1sc02 8.1 sc2 East 150 70 6 7 6

17 mw8.1sc03 8.1 sc3 East 150 70 6 7 6

18 mw8.1sc04 8.1 sc4 East 150 70 6 7 6

19 mw8.1sc05 8.1 sc5 East 150 70 6 7 6

20 mw8.1sc06 8.1 sc6 Entire 150 70 6 7 6

21 mw8.1sc07 8.1 sc7 West 150 70 6 7 4

22 mw8.1sc08 8.1 sc8 West 150 70 6 7 4

23 mw8.1sc09 8.1 sc9 West 150 70 6 7 4

24 mw8.3sc01 8.3 sc1 East 300 110 4 7 6

25 mw8.3sc02 8.3 sc2 East 300 110 4 7 6

26 mw8.3sc03 8.3 sc3 Entire 300 110 4 7 6

27 mw8.3sc04 8.3 sc4 West 300 110 4 7 4

28 mw8.5sc01 8.5 sc1 East 350 110 6.5 7 6

29 mw8.5sc02 8.5 sc2 Entire 350 110 6.5 7 6

30 mw8.5sc03 8.5 sc3 West 350 110 6.5 7 4

31 mw8.7sc01 8.7 sc1 East 400 110 10 7 6

32 mw8.7sc02 8.7 sc2 Entire 400 110 10 7 6

33 mw8.7sc03 8.7 sc3 West 350 110 11 7 4

34 mw8.9sc01 8.9 sc1 Entire 808 110 10 7 6

35 mw9.1sc01 9.1 sc2 West 808 215 10 7 4

4. RESULTS

4.1 Deterministic tsunami hazard assessment

Regional MWH and TTT for EMSZ Mw8.8 Scenario

Regional Tsunami animation of EMSZ Mw8.8 Scenario

MWH 6 m

TTT 1 hr. 24 min

Length (km)

Width(km)

Slip(m) Dip(0) Strike(0) Rake(0) Mw

461 110 11.1 7 263 90 8.8

4. RESULTS

4.1 Deterministic tsunami hazard assessment

Regional MWH and TTT for WMSZ Mw6.9 Scenario

Regional Tsunami animation of WMSZ Mw6.9 Scenario

MWH 0.6 m

TTT 48 min

Length (km)

Width(km)

Slip(m) Dip(0) Strike(0) Rake(0) Mw

30 20 1.8 7 281 90 6.9

4. RESULTS

4.1 Deterministic tsunami hazard assessment

Regional MWH and TTT for Historical MSZ 1945 Mw 8.1

Regional Tsunami animation of HMSZ 1945 Mw8.1

MWH 4.3 m

TTT 1 hr. 42 min

Length (km)

Width(km)

Slip(m) Dip(0) Strike(0) Rake(0) Mw

150 70 6.6 7 246 90 8.1

4. RESULTS

4.1 Deterministic tsunami hazard assessment DIBBA Maximum Wave height and Flow depth for EMSZ Mw8.8 Scenario

4. RESULTS

4.1 Deterministic tsunami hazard assessment DIBBA Maximum Wave height and Flow depth for WMSZ Mw6.9 Scenario

4. RESULTS

4.1 Deterministic tsunami hazard assessment DIBBA Maximum wave Height and Flow depth for Historical MSZ 1945 Mw8.1

4. RESULTS

4.2 Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment

DIBBA 100-years Probability that MWH/Flow depth exceeds 0.5m , 1.0m and 2.0m

4. RESULTS

4.2 Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment

DIBBA 250-years Probability that MWH/Flow depth exceeds 0.5m , 1.0m and 2.0m

4. RESULTS

4.2 Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment

DIBBA 500-years Probability that MWH/Flow depth exceeds 0.5m , 1.0m and 2.0m

4. RESULTS

4.2 Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment

DIBBA 1000-years Probability that MWH/Flow depth exceeds 0.5m , 1.0m and 2.0m

5. CONCLUSIONS

5.1 DTHA Summary

EMSZ Mw8.8 WMSZ Mw6.9 1945MSZ Mw8.1

Maximum Inundation (m) 456 310 152

Area Flooded (x103 m²) 371 217 70

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

EMSZ Mw8.8 WMSZ Mw6.9 1945MSZ Mw8.1

1.2

0.9

0.5

1.1

0.9

0.5

Runup (m)

Flow Depth (m)

5. CONCLUSIONS

5.2 PTHA Summary

Exposure period

Tsunami Probability that a maximum wave height offshore exceed the given value

0.5 m 1.0 m 2.0 m

100 years 90% 75% 25%

250 years 100% 90% 35%

500 years 100% 100% 50%

1000 years 100% 100% 60%

THANK YOU

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