Turkey Strategy 280115

8172019 Turkey Strategy 280115

httpslidepdfcomreaderfullturkey-strategy-280115 135

PREPARED AND PUBLISHED BY NON-US BROKER-DEALER(S) TEB INVESTMENT IT IS BEING DISTRIBUTED IN TURKEY BY TEB INVESTMENT AND OUTSIDE TURKEY JOINTLY BY TEBINVESTMENT AND BNP PARIBAS THIS MATERIAL HAS BEEN APPROVED FOR US DISTRIBUTION ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES CAN BE FOUND AT

APPENDIX ON PAGE 32

A little love goes a long way

We stick to our expectation of two opposite phases for 2015 divided into two

unequal parts ndash an initial upbeat quarter followed by a down-cycle Despite

accelerated outperformance of the BIST100 over MSCI EM since October 2014

primarily on the back of the oil price downswing the market is still not out of juice

Ceteris paribus we are in anticipation of the BIST100 index reaching our 961k

target ndash the level where we recommend investors start taking profits ndash in the nextcouple of months predominantly as an indirect consequence of fixed-income

inflows

Ex-post annual CPI is to contract 170bp m-m to 65 in January and then to as low

as 5 levels mid-year on the back of lower commodity costs less FX pass-through

and high food price base getting out of time series As there has hardly been a high

real interest on top of backward looking inflation we expect the benchmark bond

yield to slide down in tandem with contracting CPI Low rates improve consumer

confidence increase consumption and contribute to growth and for the banks they

magnify spreads improve asset quality boost bond mark-to-market gains and

contribute to volume expansion Last but not least low rates pull down CoEs

pushing up price objectives We are running models with 775 Rf which provides

a comfortable buffer over a 7 10-year TRY bond yield

We are looking for a downbeat turnaround as we draw closer to mid-year as the

Fed rate-hike pricing takes its toll paving the way for unwinding of the pro-Turkey

trade that has been continuing since 2008 Turkeyrsquos general elections will also take

place concurrently with this tightening cycle in June 2015 Utility price hikes

regulatory burdens possible tax increases and all other potential voter unfriendly

moves are likely to set off afterwards We will also be closely monitoring the

political will of the next administration in delivering the 1350-article structural

reform package Crude oil prices are likely to stabilise and start inching up as a

stronger USD may eventually lead China and India to level up their commodity

demand as US import appetite rises on the back of a stronger USD eventually

contributing to the expected downswing in TRY asset prices

Our equity investment strategy is to continue with overweight positioning in banks

and interest-rate sensitive cyclical names for now and to switch into defensive

plays as we tap our Index target We like companies that offer growth and

turnaround stories accompanied by appealing valuations Halkbank (HALKB TI)

Turkcell (TCELL TI) Aselsan (ASELS TI) Tofas (TOASO TI) BIM (BIMAS TI) and

Coca Cola Icecek (CCOLA TI) are our preferences for 2015 On the negative side

of the trade we recommend avoiding Erdemir (EREGL TI) Turk Telekom (TTKOM

TI)) and Akbank (AKBNK TI)

28 JANUARY 2015

EQUITIES RESEARCH

TURKEY STRATEGY

Mete Yukselmeteyukseltebcomtr

+90 216 6364536

Our research is available on Thomson One Bloomberg TheMarketscom Factset and on httpeqresearchbnpparibascomindex Please contact your salesperson forauthorisation Please see the important notice on the back page



Turkey Strategy Mete Yuksel

2 BNP PARIBAS 28 JANUARY 2015

Top-down strategy outlook ndash Isik Okte

Investment themes

Led by the oil ldquodividendrdquo Turkey has one of the best investment stories of the last

decade among emerging market countries The question we should be asking

ourselves is how much of this story is priced into BIST100 Turkeyrsquos main equity

index currently at 912k and only 2 from its all-time high

We see the following eight positives as pillars of the Turkish equity story

1 Inflows to Turkish fixed income instruments continuing after the sovereign bondbuying programme announced by the ECB

2 Disinflationary pressures with the supply overhang in oil markets

3 Improvement in current account deficit at a time when the Fed is getting ready tostart rate hikes

4 Macro problems in Russia and Central Europe make Turkey look relativelyattractive among CEEMEA

5 CBRT rate-cut cycle under way as disinflationary pressures and growth dynamics(consumer confidence hits five-year lows business confidence hits five-monthlows) dominate

6 Fiscal discipline

7 Political uncertainty out of the way until June 2015 elections

8 Governmentrsquos Kurdish Peace Process and structural reform packages aimed atstability and growth

While most of these positives are intertwined and well-known by the investing public

Turkeyrsquos re-rating from a market standpoint is still under way Since 2014 MSCI

Turkey has gained 23 and has outperformed the MSCI EM index by 24 In 2015

year-to-date the positive divergence is even more striking MSCI Turkey is gaining

5 and is the second-best performing MSCI EM component after India With this

outperformance MSCI Turkeyrsquos 12-month forward PE discount to MSCI EM now

stands at 5 Since Lehman this discount averaged 16 on an annual basis until

2014 year-end

EXHIBIT 1 Turkey vs EM

Sources Bloomberg TEB InvestmentBNP Paribas

08

09

10

11

12

13

14

Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15

`Turkey outperformanceaccelerating`





In order for the BIST re-rating to continue at current levels we need more macro

drivers Here are three ldquoBIST-friendlyrdquo scenarios that we believe are not being priced

in at the moment

One possible driver may be rating outlook upgrades Among the three major

credit rating agencies Moodyrsquos and SampP have Turkeyrsquos rating outlook at negative

whereas Fitch has a stable outlook for Turkey We believe that with the ECB

delivering on the quantitative easing front and the current account deficit

continuing to improve on oil supply dynamics all three agencies may raise Turkeyto a neutral or a positive outlook

SampP rates Turkey one notch below investment grade so we believe that a ratings

outlook upgrade by SampP in their 8 May review is more of a possibility than one by

Moodyrsquos (10 April) or Fitch (20 March) We do not expect an outright rating

upgrade as all three agencies might want to see the effect of the Fed rate hike

cycle on global liquidity conditions before making such a move

Another possibility for continued Turkish equity re-rating is a delay of a Fed lift-off

in rates MSCI Turkey has outperformed MSCI EM by 38 since the launch of

the first quantitative easing programme by the Fed on 26 November 2008

Turkeyrsquos equity sensitivity to global liquidity conditions remains high and any

delay in Fed rate-hike action should be considered a positive

EXHIBIT 2 MSCI TR vs MSCI EM


In our base-case scenario we see the first rate hike in June 2015 But

dependent on macro data out of the US the Fed tightening cycle may be

postponed to 3Q15 or beyond There is a growing voice among economists that

says ldquoa strong USD will hamper US growthrdquo If this theory holds true and US

macro data deteriorates BIST interest-rate sensitive names may be the majorbeneficiaries

The extension of ambitious reform packages and success in their

implementation could anchor Turkeyrsquos re-rating story after the elections

Turkeyrsquos politicians have been handed a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity by oil

supply dynamics to implement structural reforms We know that the Turkish

government although slow to react is reform-minded and using every

opportunity to spur growth and lessen dependence on foreign energy After the

June 2015 elections we will enter a new era for these reforms as well as for the

Kurdish Peace process

Many market participants view Turkey as a ldquoliquidity storyrdquo and to an extent theyare right But if these reforms were to change Turkeyrsquos growth trajectory to

upward momentum at a time when the Fed is hiking rates this would be another

reason to own Turkish equities We believe it is too early to talk about this

possible scenario as we have to wait six months for the elections

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Nov-08 Nov-09 Nov-10 Nov-11 Nov-12 Nov-13 Nov-14

MSCI TR MSCI EM

38 Outperformance ofTurkey

First QE announcement bythe Fed





Risk factors

Downside risks to our positive call for Turkish equities include

1 The Fed rate-hike cycle starting earlier than expected or the Fed rate hike cycle

being conducted at an accelerating pace as US growth picks up momentum

despite the strong USD

2 The ECB failing to end low European growth or inflation and markets losing faithin ECB effectiveness and starting to sell European periphery fixed income

3 EM ldquocontagionrdquo risks through RussiaUkraine or Chinese shadow -banking

practices leading to higher risk premiums and higher EM FX volatility

4 A rally in energy commodity markets

5 Geopolitical risk through the rise of Islamic State

These are all well-documented risks and we see no point in going over each one of

them However we want to highlight two risks (one macro-economic one political)

that have the potential to be the ldquoAchilles heelrdquo

We see rising risks to Turkeyrsquos tourism industry through lower oil prices The

potential loss of Russian and Middle Eastern revenues is one key negative For

exporters a rising USDfalling EUR creates balance sheet risk if unhedged Although

we view global FX and commodity market dynamics as positives in Turkeyrsquos

investment story these two may come to hurt us down the road in 2015

Another risk factor is changes in key economic posts or the CBRT laws after the

elections If pro-growth structural reforms continue under the leadership of a viable

ldquoeconomy-czarrdquo after the elections this risk factor has the potential to become a

strength Otherwise markets may get jittery We are also alarmed by the growing

voice in the government that wants to change the CBRT laws to include growth and

employment targets This might be perceived as a negative in terms of CBRTindependence

Trading strategy

We have a bottom up target for BIST100 of 961k representing 5 upside We

prefer to remain long BIST equities despite low upside potential

We would like to wait for a test of all-time highs at 934k As with most technical all-

time high prints we expect a 2-3 ldquoovershootrdquo to our 961k Index target as long as

TRY volatility remains in check and the 10-year US Treasury yield remains below

2

In 1H15 we would like to use any opportunities above our bottom-up target of 961kas profit-taking opportunities and wait for better entry points around 85k





Valuations not stretched

While market multiples are higher than the historical average for the Turkish market

they cannot be deemed demanding compared to historical valuation

discountpremiums of peers The 112x 12-month forward looking PE of MSCI TR

points to a 5 discount to MSCI EM as compared to the 9 average discount for

the last five years Due to discrepancies in the weighting of banks in different stock

markets we prefer to use bank multiples in valuation comparisons Banks are always

trading with lower multiples than non-financials which might lead to themisperception of the Turkish market always trading at a discount to peer countries

due to the heavy 36 banking sector weighting in the BIST100 index As can be

seen in Exhibit 22 the banks in our coverage are trading at 104x 2015E PE at par

with the MSCI EM bank average While average Turkey bank PBV of 12x implies a

discount to the 14x EM EMEA average this is justifiable through the ROE

differential Instead of following a PBV vs ROE scatter tracking the PE is a more

straightforward way (PBROE=PE) In all rather than an across-the-board discount

for the whole banking sector we are recommending exposure in select names

offering valuation discounts as well as catalysts

EXHIBIT 3 12-month forward looking PE of MSCI Indices


EXHIBIT 4 12 Month forward looking PE of MSCI Indices

MSCI TR MSCI World MSCI EM MSCI EMEA

(x) (x) (x) (x)

Today 112 160 116 102

1Y average 99 150 108 91

3Y average 98 131 104 84

5Y average 96 129 105 84

Sources Bloomberg amp TEB InvestmentBNP Paribas

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14

(x) MSCI TR MSCI World MSCI EM MSCI EMEA





EXHIBIT 5 Historical discountpremium of MSCI Turkey



MSCI World MSCI EM MSCI EMEA

() () ()

Today (30) (5) 8

1Y average (34) (8) 10

3Y average (27) (6) 18

5Y average (25) (9) 15


Another gauge we are tracking to identify the relative discount of the market is

economic value add of the earnings yield over benchmark bond which is essentially

the difference between earnings yield (inverted PE) and benchmark bond Due to

the fast yield drop of the benchmark bond investors can make 225bp more return

investing in stocks than bonds as compared to a five-year average incremental

return of 194bp or a mere 100bp return in the last one year So going long equitieshedged by a short position in bonds offers alpha

EXHIBIT 7 12 Month forward looking earnings yield vs benchmark yield


EXHIBIT 8 Spreads

Spread

Current 220

1Y 100

3Y 172

5Y 194


(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

40

50


()MSCI World MSCI EM MSCI EMEA

(1)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14


() ()Earnings yield (LHS) Benchmark yield (LHS) Spread (RHS)





Macro forecasts

EXHIBIT 9 Macro forecasts

-------------- Current forecasts -------------- -------------------- Previous --------------------

2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2013 2014E 2015E

Real sector

Real GDP (y-y ) 21 41 31 30 41 31 30

Nominal GDP (TRY b) 14168 15615 17527 19086

15615 17535 19219

Nominal GDP (USD b) 7878 8209 8001 7939 8209 8025 8173

CPI (y-y ) 62 74 82 62 74 87 67

CPI (avg ) 89 75 89 58 75 89 64

Exchange rate and interest rates

EURTRY (eop) 235 293 283 275 293 276 281

EURTRY (avg) 230 256 289 271 256 289 277

USDTRY (eop) 178 213 233 250 213 226 244

USDTRY (avg) 178 193 219 240 193 218 235

EURUSD (eop) 132 138 122 110 138 122 115

EURUSD (avg) 129 133 132 113 133 132 118

EURUSD basket (eop) 206 253 258 263 253 251 262

Real effective exchange rate (y-y ) 25 (35) (47) 46 (35) (47) 46

Policy interest rate (eop ) 557 775 825 725 775 825 825

Benchmark bond yield (eop ) 618 1010 802 900 1010 850 970

Benchmark bond yield (avg ) 815 763 919 789 763 923 923

Fiscal Sector of GDP

Central government balance (20) (12) (14) (11) (12) (16) (19)

Central government primary balance 14 20 14 17 20 12 09

Central government primary balance (IMF definition) (01) 10 09 13 10 07 05

Net public debt 170 141 122 103 141 125 115

Central government gross debt 375 375 362 337 375 364 348

External sector (USD b)

Current account (485) (650) (444) (326) (650) (432) (338)

of GDP (62) (79) (56) (41) (79) (54) (41)

As of 14-Jan-15 As of 16-Dec-14

The CBRTs weighted average cost of funding starting from 2011Source TEB InvestmentBNP Paribas estimates





Key sectors for 2015

Banks will be the centre of attention for the whole year firstly as the key beneficiaries

of sliding rates early in the year through such means as spread enhancement asset

quality revival and volume expansion and then on the opposite side of the trade as

the rate trajectory moves upwards with the Fed rate hike kicking in For the year as a

whole we recommend staying with selective non-cyclical names in telecoms

beverage food retailing and defense For autos we have mixed feelings depending

on company-specific issues Recent sizeable declines in product prices on slowingglobal demand growth and surplus production capacity in steel prompt us to avoid

Erdemir While we do not have any aviation stock among our preferences for 2015

the lower oil price story should keep investor interest high

Banking(Fatih Topac +90 216 636 4508 fatihtopactebyatirimcomtr )

Since end-3Q14 the benchmark bond rate has come down by a significant 330bp

However given the CBRTrsquos tightening stance coupled with banksrsquo window-dressing

efforts TRY deposit costs did not follow the benchmark While sliding rates should

result in a surge in the trading lines of most banks as they have been trading their

in-the-money available-for-sale securities YTD q-q spread accretion is unlikely for

1Q15 due to inflated TRY deposit costs predominantly on the portfolios raisedtowards the end of 2014 Due to the tight liquidity stance of the CBRT as well as a

stretched LTD of 118 for the system deposit prices are set to make a lighter

downward move compared to bond yields the spread impact for which can be

observed not earlier than 2Q15

EXHIBIT 10 Tight monetary policy led to higher depositcosts EXHIBIT 11 NIM evolution

Sources CBRT TEB InvestmentBNP Paribas Sources Company financials TEB InvestmentBNP Paribas estimates

This time around in January 2015 the CBRT has shifted to a more dovish stance

and cut the policy rate by 50bp As we see further easing of the weighted average

cost of funding we think deposit costs have 100-150bp room to decline This will

help the LD spread to improve to some extent in our view Yet given the expected

Fed rate hikes the pressure on deposit costs and spreads will come back in 2Q15 in

our view Moreover an already stretched loan-to-deposit ratio of 118 in the sector

will be another factor that could limit downside to deposit costs

6

8

10

12

14

O c t - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

() Average deposit rate

benchmark bond rate

Weighted average cost of CBRT Funding 389

361

350

366

358 358

30

32

34

36

38

40

2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E

(NIM)





EXHIBIT 12 LD Spread evolution EXHIBIT 13 Sector loans to deposits

Sources Company financials TEB InvestmentBNP Paribas estimates Sources BRSA TEB InvestmentBNP Paribas

Lower CPI linker yields will also weigh on margins throughout the year The banks

that benefited the most on CPI-linked bond exposure in 2014 (from an unexpected

spike in inflation triggered initially by drought then by floods on unprocessed foodprices utility price hikes and finally by a TRY depreciation pass-through) should put

additional efforts into compensating for NII pressure in 2015 as seen in the charts

below With moderation in weather conditions a high base and continued decline in

soft commodity prices globally inflation is set to ease in 2015 For 2015 our macro

team expects Oct-Oct CPI to come down by 391bp y-y which is the base for CPI-

linked bonds All in all the banks that enjoyed high CPI linker yields back in 2014

should face a harder time compensating for the lost portion this year

EXHIBIT 14 NIM impact of lower CPI ndash (2015E) EXHIBIT 15 NII impact of lower CPI ndash (2015E)

Source TEB InvestmentBNP Paribas estimates Source TEB InvestmentBNP Paribas estimates

Ahead of 4Q14 financial results banks started to announce their 2015 budgets

Almost all banks are expecting loan growth to be in the 15-18 range in 2015 under

the assumption of 35-4 GDP growth Sector players are expecting consumer

demand to pick up next year Our expectation of 148 loan growth (135 FX-

adjusted) for this year stands a tad below the lower end of the guidance range as we

are less optimistic on GDP growth at 3 On top of the capital increase decision of

Halkbank to finance the establishment of the participation bank we may see further

rights issue decisions from the banks with sector-topping LTDs and ambitious growth

plans The BRSA may relieve the sectorrsquos capitalization problems on the Tier-1 side

of the story by full implementation of Basel III with advanced methods as well as

reversing some of the macro-prudential measures taken in the past couple of yearssuch as having RWAs up to 250 levels for some consumer loans

385

369

437443

399390

385 386

300

350

400

450

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14E 1Q15E 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E

()

118

106

108

110

112

114

116

118

120

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

()

(34)

(28)

(10)

(21)(22)

(18)

(40)

(35)

(30)

(25)

(20)

(15)

(10)

(5)

0

AKBNK GARAN YKBNK ISCTR HALKB VAKBN

(bp)

(719)

(610)

(174)

(486)

(349)

(288)

(800)

(700)

(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

0


(TRY m)





EXHIBIT 16 Momentum justifies up to 15 loan growth EXHIBIT 17 Sector capitalization is resilient ndash 3Q14

Sources BRSA TEB InvestmentBNP Paribas Source Company financials

In this environment asset quality is another concern of ours that we think is being

overlooked by the market Although asset quality was better than the market feared

in 2014 except for a couple of large ticket items we are dubious regarding 2015prospects Unemployment keeps increasing ndash for the fourth consecutive year since

the 85 trough at the end of 2011 Given the Fedrsquos expected rate hike cycle

interest rates will increase and TRY will lose value against hard currencies Both of

these factors will weigh on consumer confidence leading to ultimately deteriorating

asset quality in the second half of the year Lower consumer confidence not only

increases delinquencies but also pulls down NPL recoveries All of these suggest

that risks are to the upside on our 5bp estimated increase in specific CoR

EXHIBIT 18 NPL ratio of the banking sector EXHIBIT 19 Seasonally-adjusted unemployment

Source BRSA Sources TurkStat BRSA TEB InvestmentBNP Paribas

Most banks have announced their 2015 budgets Banksrsquo managements are working

with 3-4 GDP growth and 6-7 CPI consensus in their budgets Turkish banks are

more optimistic than BNPP for 2015 with flat-to-improving NIMs versus our

expectation of an 11bp contraction and flat asset quality versus our expectation of a

slight contraction as discussed above and 15-18 loan growth that is 20-320bp

above our forecast The most aggressive in its budget so far has been Halkbank not

only on the expected TRY13b net profit contribution from the likely sale of insurance

subsidiaries but on operational grounds as well

143

139

126

0

5

10

1520

25

30

35

40

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

() Loan growth y-y

13-w annualized loan growth

Consumer loan growth 13-annual

1471 1497 1495 1528

1356 1387

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18


CAR ()

29

25

26

27

28

29

30

J u n - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

A u g - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

()

9789 92

120 119

100

85 88 91

106

0

1

2

3

4

5

(1)

2

5

8

11

14

2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3

O c t - 1 4

()() Seasonally-adj unemployment rate (LHS)

Specific CoR (RHS)





EXHIBIT 20 Banksrsquo 2015 guidance

2015 AKBNK GARAN ISCTR HALKB TSKB

Latest update 8-Jan-15 16-Jan-15 15-Jan-15 19-Jan-15 16-Jan-15

Macro assumptions ()

GDP Growth 35-4 37 35 40 30

CPI 70 61 65-7 6 65

Policy Rate 8

Benchmark 8

Current AccountGDP 45 lt5 50

Public DebtGDP 318 lt33

Budget DeficitGDP lt2

USDTRY 240 233

Sector outlook ()

Assets 12-14

Loans 14-16

Deposits 12-14

2015 Targets

Balance sheet ()

Assets 13-15 13-15

Loans 15-17 15 16-17 16-18 15(fx adj)

TL 15-17 15 16-18

FX 11-13 8 14-16

Deposit 15-17 13 16-17 13-15

TL 16-18 11

FX 9-11 8

Loansassets 72

Securitiesassets 17 16

PampL ()

NII 13-15

Fee g 5-7 flat to slightly down 7-8 10 15-20

Opex g 10 13 4-5 (one-off adj 11-12) 11-13

KPIs ()

NIM 36 (flattish) +8bps 37-39 (flat to slightly up) 42-44 (~+20bps) 4

ROE 13-14 20-22 16-17 (flattish)

ROA 16 14-16 24-26 25

EPS mid teen

NPL ratio 2 +20-30bps 32-34 0

Total COR 90bps (net) - flat yoy +85-95bps(gross)

Specific COR 105bps (gross)65bps (net) 70-80bps (-20bps)

CostIncome 41 35-37 15-16

Leverage (x) 88 7

LDR lt100

CAR 14 gt15 16 18

Dividend payout 20

Branch openings 15-20 40-45 40-50

Source Banks Public Disclosures

We like Halkbank in terms of valuation continued high profitability and from a

potential catalyst point of view primarily the proposed sale of insurance subsidiaries

Halkbankrsquos aggressive 2015 budget is also putting the stock in the spotlight

We keep our BUY call on Vakifbank due mainly to the coming turnaround story on

the way to the SPO widely expected for 2016 Long-awaited upbeat operational

earnings momentum should continue following the sector-topping 3Q14 performance





in NIM and fee income growth Trading at a mere 93x 2015E earnings and 094x

book the stock offers a good entry point in our view

With the widest branch network among its listed peers and a relatively high portion of

these branches in rural areas Isbank has more room to limit NIM erosion when

interest rates go up thanks to its less interest-rate-sensitive deposit customers We

keep our positive view on Isbank taking into consideration the potential divestment

of its remaining Avea (non-listed) stake due to the share sale option between TTNet

(TTKOM TI) and Isbank better margin evolution and 2015E PB and PE multiplesthat are the lowest among private peers Increasing transparency more investor

support and questioning what they can do to improve corporate governance should

help reduce the historical valuation discount of the bank to its peer group mean We

maintain our BUY recommendation

We like Yapi Kredi Bank fundamentally we believe in the ambitious growth strategy

there and expect the above-sector growth to continue Although we maintain our

BUY call we acknowledge there are also some drawbacks Despite managementrsquos

successful margin management during aggressive growth periods it is inevitable that

margins get suppressed cost growth accelerates and thus ROE generation slows

Another hurdle might be Yapi Kredirsquos 109 Tier-1 ratio which is the lowest among

the big six banks We think the likelihood of the bank going for a rights issue is

increasing should it stick to the ambitious growth plan

Akbank is trading at a premium to peers that we consider unjustified Its CAR is no

longer the largest among our coverage but fourth The bank has the highest bond

share in its assets being predominantly in CPI linkers which is set to hamper

earnings momentum as we are looking for a 391bp decline in October-October

inflation y-y for 2015 Asset quality issues have been hurting the PL for two quarters

in a row We maintain our HOLD recommendation on Akbank

Although we like Garanti fundamentally and we credit managementrsquos realistic 2015

budget Garanti Bank is by far the most overvalued name in our coverage universe

with 17x 2015E PB and 126x PE multiples We have 2 downside to our target

price and maintain our HOLD recommendation

We think TSKB is the most defensive name among the banks in our coverage thanks

to its unique business model Its sustained long-term financing from supranational

institutions at relatively low costs affords the bank an important competitive edge

Moreover the bank does not collect any deposits and thus is immune to the cost

problems from which other banks suffer We believe that management can achieve

its 16-17 ROE target in 2015 which is in line with our estimates We maintain our

BUY recommendation on TSKB

Its unique business model of participation banking (Islamic banking based on

profitloss sharing principles) sets Albaraka apart After lagging the other three

participation banks in organic growth for almost a decade Albaraka management

has now put an aggressive growth plan into action We think profitable growth isachievable by the bankrsquos agile management while Albarakarsquos 138 CAR is also at

quite a supportive level for further growth We maintain our BUY recommendation





EXHIBIT 21 Turkish banks

3Q14 (TRY m) AKBNK GARAN ISCTR YKBNK HALKB VAKBN ALBRK TSKB

F u n d a m e n t a l

26115 TRYUSD 23500

Mcap (USD m) 16000 19123 13883 9822 8750 6277 674 1372

Target Mcap (USD m) 14962 18748 15089 10525 10340 6809 1034 1698

Price (TRY) 940 1070 725 531 1645 590 176 215

Number of shares 4000 4200 4500 4347 1250 2500 900 1500

Mcap 37600 44940 32625 23083 20563 14750 1584 3225

Daily Return () 44 09 13 10 19 19 12 05

W-W Return () 568 70 77 56 100 41 29 29

Y-Y Return () 568 693 704 565 365 590 267 449

Float () 42 50 31 18 49 25 19 40

Major shareholder SAB 49 BBD 25 PF 42 KCUC 42 PA 50 FOU 59 ABG 57 IS 50

Number of branches 998 995 1348 978 891 879 176 3

Number of personnel 16416 19201 24112 17734 15070 14721 3212 327

V a l u a t i o n

Target price (TRY) 879 1049 788 569 1944 640 270 266

Upside () (6) (2) 9 7 18 8 53 24

Rating Hold Hold Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy Buy

Type of financials BOnly BOnly BOnly BOnly BOnly BOnly BOnly BOnly

2013 PBV -solo 176 199 138 133 145 117 106 171

2014E PBV -solo 150 187 115 120 125 104 091 145

2015E PBV-solo 135 167 104 108 109 094 079 127

2013 PE -solo 1278 1495 1031 721 747 930 656 989

2014E PE-solo 1221 1351 966 1227 866 964 600 871

2015E PE-solo 1175 1258 920 1119 820 927 533 833

2013 Book 21339 22585 23579 17309 14146 12616 1497 1885

2014E Book 25065 24020 28467 19237 16493 14141 1739 2228

2015E Book 27849 26832 31314 21334 18951 15667 2014 2538

P r o f i t a b i l i t y

2013 Net profit 2942 3006 3163 3203 2751 1586 241 326

2014E Net profit 3080 3328 3378 1881 2373 1530 264 370

2015E Net profit 3199 3571 3547 2062 2508 1591 297 387

2013 Reported NIM () 38 37 37 37 42 42 45 44

2014E Reported NIM () 36 37 37 37 36 34 37 41

2015E Reported NIM () 35 36 36 36 35 33 36 42

2013 ROA () 17 17 16 24 23 13 17 28

2014E ROA () 16 16 15 12 16 11 14 27

2015E ROA () 15 15 14 11 15 10 13 24

2013 ROE () 138 137 137 187 211 130 181 181

2014E ROE () 133 139 134 104 156 115 164 181

2015E ROE () 122 141 125 102 142 107 159 165

F i n a n c i a l s

Loans 123813 130953 150855 112621 96111 97637 14198 10542

Securities 48544 42857 39395 23439 27728 22963 1339 3161

Deposits 113112 113886 130461 100012 101462 89197 15399 0

Sh Eq 23897 25106 26536 18408 15648 13682 1660 2149

Assets 202044 214891 230439 168713 149809 147266 21721 14671

Net profit 2863 2907 3193 1734 2505 1495 273 369

Sources Company Financials TEB InvestmentBNP Paribas estimates





EXHIBIT 22 Global peer comparison Banking

Mcap ------ PBV (USD) ------ ------- PE (USD) ------- ------- ROE (USD) ------- ---------- EPS growth () ---------

Current Target Upside 2013 2014E 2015E 2013 2014E 2015E 2013 2014E 2015E 2014E 2015E 2014E 2015E

(USD m) (USD m) () (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () (USD) (USD) (LC) (LC)

Country

Turkey 75263 74008 (2) 155 135 121 849 1123 1001 179 116 128 (289) 121 (72) 121

Argentina 2991 2987 (0) 104 297 264 350 906 824 460 280 339 (177) 100 561 100

Brazil 151760 187370 23 170 155 138 745 846 755 250 182 193 (208) 120 51 120

Chile 28703 35208 23 305 211 193 1274 1035 1043 254 215 193 (44) (07) 227 (07)

Colombia 22279 25643 15 225 158 147 1488 1323 1140 164 133 134 (02) 161 326 161

Peru 15439 18485 20 242 252 220 676 545 455 377 507 517 566 199 486 206

Mexico 33693 36333 8 237 230 216 1510 1653 1450 171 140 153 (100) 140 (01) 140

Czech Republic 7492 7733 3 164 186 183 1221 1462 1439 151 116 128 (200) 16 08 16

Hungary 3866 4661 21 073 077 072 1994 1110 850 46 54 87 221 305 499 305

Poland 43448 48297 11 177 179 171 1495 1531 1467 140 110 119 (118) 44 14 44

Russia 19864 30402 53 141 062 056 572 424 478 286 117 124 (608) (113) (163) (113)

Israel 9954 11610 17 069 070 066 908 804 770 96 83 88 54 44 91 44

South Africa 56300 55768 (1) 188 213 194 981 1313 1149 180 165 177 (126) 142 218 142

Egypt 6706 6444 (4) 187 353 301 644 1419 1123 321 262 289 (46) 263 169 263

Morocco 7624 7383 (3) 229 210 195 1585 1669 1508 159 131 134 (47) 107 60 107

China 1123290 1231844 10 120 084 074 692 652 613 208 153 128 85 64 76 64

Indonesia 83000 85728 3 290 284 243 1055 1414 1241 301 213 211 (176) 140 97 140

India 39793 39991 0 140 152 136 684 1359 1088 213 138 132 (126) 249 04 249

Malaysia 55496 62904 13 187 143 133 1237 1191 1087 167 125 127 (143) 96 04 96

Philippines 23681 23416 (1) 210 228 207 1370 1826 1609 166 128 135 (143) 135 (105) 135

Thailand 75330 74258 (1) 184 196 175 1125 1320 1201 173 157 154 23 99 73 99

Turkey 75263 74008 (2) 155 135 121 849 1123 1001 179 116 128 (289) 121 (72) 121

Turkey (TEB BNPP ) 75263 69350 (8) 155 136 122 849 1101 1039 148 119 125 (232) 67 (60) 60

EM EMEA excl Turkey 145300 160687 11 159 150 138 860 1069 1031 205 126 139 (381) 36 nm nm

EM EMEA excl Turkey amp Russia 125436 130285 4 172 192 179 1203 1407 1262 154 131 147 (110) 115 nm nm

EM EMEA 220564 234695 6 151 144 132 857 1087 1021 197 123 135 (353) 64 nm nm

EM Asia 1400589 1518141 8 130 094 084 742 726 678 208 153 131 60 71 nm nm

EM LatAm 251873 303039 20 195 172 155 886 924 825 240 189 197 (129) 120 nm nm

EM 1885970 2070471 10 139 105 093 775 779 724 209 152 136 (17) 76 nm nm

MSCI WORLD BANKS 3333567 na - 101 102 097 na 1093 994 67 93 98 291 99 - -

MSCI EMRG MKT BANKS 1509253 na - 124 116 105 na 845 751 145 70 98 53 126 - -

Data as of 26 Jan 2015 1758 GMT+2 Czech Rep Hungary Poland Russia Egypt Morocco South Africa Turkey China Indonesia India Malaysia Philippines South Korea Taiwan Thailand Brazil Chile Colombia Mexico Peru Brazil Chile China Colombia Czech Republic Egypt Hungary India Indonesia South Korea Malaysia Mexico Morocco Peru Philippines Poland Russia South Africa

Taiwan Thailand Turkey Sources Bloomberg TEB InvestmentBNP Paribas estimates





EXHIBIT 23 Sector multiples

--- 12-Mth -- REC -- Reported PE -- ----- EVEBITDA ----- -------- PBV -------- -- Gross div yield-- ------ EVsales ------ -------- ROE --------

Stock Price TP T Up lsquo13 lsquo14E lsquo15E lsquo13 lsquo14E lsquo15E lsquo13 lsquo14E lsquo15E lsquo13 lsquo14

lsquo15E

lsquo13 lsquo14E lsquo15E lsquo13 lsquo14E lsquo15E

(TRY) (TRY) () (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () (x) (x) (x) () () ()

Banks 14 104 110 104 - - - 16 14 12 12 16 12 - - - 163 141 133

Large Banks 6 104 111 105 - - - 16 14 12 12 16 12 - - - 157 130 123

AKBNK 940 879 (6) HOLD 128 122 118 - - - 18 15 14 15 12 12 - - - 138 133 122

GARAN 1070 1049 (2) HOLD 150 135 126 - - - 20 19 17 13 09 10 - - - 137 139 141

HALKB 1645 1944 18 BUY 75 87 82 - - - 15 12 11 22 13 13 - - - 211 156 142

ISCTR 725 788 9 BUY 103 97 92 - - - 14 11 10 20 17 19 - - - 137 134 125

VAKBN 590 640 8 BUY 93 96 93 - - - 12 10 09 07 07 05 - - - 130 115 107

YKBNK 531 569 7 BUY 72 123 112 - - - 13 12 11 13 17 09 - - - 187 104 102

Medium and Small Banks 39 82 74 68 - - - 14 12 10 07 10 14 - - - 181 173 162

ALBRK 176 270 53 BUY 66 60 53 - - - 11 09 08 00 20 08 - - - 181 164 159

TSKB 215 266 24 BUY 99 87 83 - - - 17 14 13 19 20 23 - - - 181 181 165

Net of rightsSources Company financials TEB InvestmentBNP Paribas estimates

Telecoms(Toygun Onaran +90 216 636 4533 toygunonarantebyatirimcomtr )

The shift in consumer preferences in the telecommunication industry towards more

mobility is shaping consumption and competition trends The declining trend seen in

the last decade in fixed lines is expected to continue at a slower pace in 2015 while

the mobile segment is expected to grow We forecast fixed-line penetration will

decline to 16 in 2015 from 177 in 2013 and 165 in 2014E The number of

mobile subscribers is expected to grow by 3 in 2015 on top of expected 35

growth in 2014 carrying the total number of subscribers to 743m in 2015 implying

959 penetration Considering that mobile devices are used by people older than

nine years old we calculate adjusted penetration will reach 115 of the populationeligible to use mobile devices in Turkey in 2015 up from 109 in 2013

EXHIBIT 24 Fixed-line subscribers amp penetration EXHIBIT 25 Mobile subscribers amp penetration

Sources Information and Communications Technologies Authority amp TEBInvestmentBNP Paribas estimates


We believe that the change in the composition of mobile subscribers is more

important than the change in the total number of subscribers for the mobile

operators as post-paid subscribers generate significantly higher ARPU than pre-paid

subscribers Mobile subscribers switched from pre-paid to post-paid contracts on theback of declining post-paid tariffs making it more affordable increasing data usage

and smartphone penetration We expect the share of post-paid subscribers to reach

462 in 2015 up from 405 in 2013 and 204 in 2008 Our forecasts indicate

175165 162

152139 136

127 127 124

245228 223

206

183 177166 165 160

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3

3 Q 1 4

2 0 1 4 E

2 0 1 5 E

()(m) of subscribers (LHS) Penetration (RHS)

658628 618

653677 697

719 721 743

921

865

838

874

895909

938 941

959

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3Q14 2014E 2015E






14 CAGR in post-paid subscribers for 2008-15 while pre-paid subscribers are

expected to contract by 4 CAGR in the same period

EXHIBIT 26 Mobile subscriber breakdown EXHIBIT 27 Mobile revenue breakdown

Sources Information and Communications Technologies Authority amp TEBInvestmentBNP Paribas estimates Sources Information and Communications Technologies Authority amp TEBInvestmentBNP Paribas estimates

Parallel to the change in subscriber composition the revenue sources of the mobile

operators also changed significantly in the same period Mobile operators have more

balanced revenue structures as they manage to diversify revenue sources The

weight of voice revenue once the major contributor of revenues has gradually

declined especially in the last couple of years as mobile data revenues surged

substantially We expect the trend to continue in 2015 as the growth in mobile data is

supported by 1) increasing smartphone penetration 2) change in consumer

preference toward non-voice channels in social and business communications 3)

increasing post-paid subscribers and 4) increasing availability and affordability of

data services We expect the share of data revenues to rise to 285 in 2015 from

19 in 2013 and the share of voice revenue to decline to 586 in 2015 from 656in 2013

The government is planning to start the tender process for 4G licenses in 2015 We

believe that with the availability of 4G services growth in mobile data revenues will

accelerate further as 4G services will allow users to enjoy significantly faster data

communication while making 3G services more affordable We believe that Turkcell

is the best prepared mobile operator in Turkey for 4G services in terms of

infrastructure sufficiency and investment capacity Recall that Turkcell obtained the

3G license with 40 MHz bandwidth for EUR358m in 2008 while Vodafone paid

EUR250m for 35 MHz bandwidth and Avea paid EUR214 for 30 MHz bandwidth

EXHIBIT 28 3G licenses in Turkey (2008-23)

Size Appraisal Value Acquisition Value

(Mhz) (EUR m) (EUR m)

Turkcell 40 285 358

Vodafone 35 250 250

Avea 30 214 214

Sources Information and Communications Technologies Authority

We think that Turkcell is well positioned to benefit from the expected growth in the

mobile data segment and the 4G licence tender will provide Turkcell with a valuable

opportunity to increase its competitive advantage over its competitors in providing

premium services

204 253 309 353 384 405 429 435 462

796 747 691 647 616 595 571 565 538

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3Q14 2014E 2015E

() Post-paid Pre-paid

809 807 783 770688 656 618 586

13 23 44 73141 190 240

285

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

7080

90

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E

() Voice Message Data VAS





EXHIBIT 29 Global peer comparison Telecom

BBG code ------------------- EVEBITDA ------------------- ----------------------- PE -----------------------

2014E 2015E 2016E 2014E 2015E 2016E

(x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x)

Mobile operators

Vimpelcom VIP US 34 38 38 78 94 69

MTS MTSS RM 35 34 33 65 79 61

MTN MTN SJ 60 59 55 137 134 119

Vodacom VOD SJ 77 78 72 143 132 144

Partner PTNR IT 42 46 47 111 160 107

Cellcom CEL IT 41 48 47 60 110 78

O2 Czech Rep TELEC CP 40 41 41 146 120 129

Average 47 49 48 106 118 101

Fixed line - Developed Markets

Deutsche Telekom DTE GR 69 66 64 252 223 199

British Telecom BTA LN 69 67 65 161 148 135

Telefonica (Spain) TEF SM 68 65 63 159 149 137

Orange ORA FP 60 60 60 175 163 155

Telekom Austria TKA AV 59 58 56 -1209 187 148

Telecom Italia TIT IM 59 60 60 137 133 126

OTE HTO GA 44 45 45 147 128 115

Average 61 60 59 -25 162 145

Fixed line - Emerging Markets

Telefonica Czech SPTT CP 40 41 41 146 136 129

Magyar MTELEKOM HB 47 48 47 135 154 125

Telecom Egypt ETEL EY 46 50 49 87 84 78

Bezeq BEZQ IT 52 61 61 80 107 109

Average 47 50 50 112 120 110

Turkcell TCELL TI 69 66 62 123 127 123

Turkcell ndash Adj by TRY190share dividend forecast 107 110 107

Turk Telekom TTKOM TI 67 65 63 124 120 119

Sources Bloomberg consensus estimates BNP ParibasTEB Investment estimates


Price -- 12-Mth -- REC -- Reported PE -- --- EVEBITDA --- ------- PBV -------- -Gross div yield -- ----- EVsales ----- -------- ROE --------

TP TUp lsquo13 lsquo14E lsquo15E lsquo13 lsquo14E lsquo15E lsquo13 lsquo14E lsquo15E lsquo13 lsquo14E lsquo15E lsquo13 lsquo14E lsquo15E lsquo13 lsquo14E lsquo15E


Telecom Services 17 149 124 125 65 61 64 25 28 26 21 121 58 22 20 21 175 211 213

Diversified Telecom Svc 3 206 126 122 68 64 61 50 41 36 90 34 48 26 24 22 221 359 315

TTKOM 768 790 3 HOLD 206 126 122 68 64 61 50 41 36 90 34 48 26 24 22 221 359 315

Wireless Telecom Svc 21 137 123 127 63 59 66 21 25 24 00 148 61 20 19 21 168 187 193

TCELL 1450 1760 21 BUY 137 123 127 63 59 66 21 25 24 00 148 61 20 19 21 168 187 193






Food retailing(Kenan Cosguner +90 216 636 4531 kenancosgunertebyatirimcomtr )

EXHIBIT 31 Consumer Confidence

Source State Institute of Statistics

In our view weak economic activity and high food inflation undermined consumer

sentiment in Turkey in 2014 In our view consumers have traded down in Turkey in

2014 and will probably remain cautious in 2015 as well

We believe BIMAS is placed to be the least affected by Turkeyrsquos adverse

environment We believe that recovery in the companyrsquos profit margins will continue

as inflation calms down Recovery in profit margins should continue into 2015 as new

stores come online to generate revenues and the company feels less inflationary

pressure (current inflation is running at around 9 compared with as low as 6 for

mid-2015) Lower fuel expenses should help consumer budgets and tame

inflationary pressure We think the market has misinterpreted BIMrsquos aspirations to

expand into supermarkets We donrsquot think it is related to the maturation of the

discount channel but is more to do with potential opportunities in the supermarketchannel after years of bleeding profitability and subpar growth due to relentless

competition from the discount channel BIM has benefited from trading down as

consumers try to make the most out of their budgets in 2014 High food inflation

while increasing the top line has had a negative impact on margins BIM has been

successful in passing on cost pressures while accelerating growth (adding 500 new

stores a year in Turkey from 2014)

Migros was able to maintain its high margins by focusing on growth and efficiency

The company has developed a new store format which lives up to changing

consumer demand and supports long-term organic growth However the new format

requires more time for testing before being deemed successful and sustainable given

ever-rising competition in the supermarket segment The main challenge has beennegative LFL growth due to lower in-store inflation and low traffic growth in

hypermarkets However the company has been able to deal with this challenge by

increasing supply-chain efficiency and improving product assortment Despite high

competition from the discount segment the company focused on differentiation in

price-quality mix utilizing its strong knowledge base

60

65

70

75

80

85

J a n - 1 0

A p r - 1 0

J u l - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

J a n - 1 1

A p r - 1 1

J u l - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

J a n - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

J u l - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

J a n - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

(index)





EXHIBIT 32 Peer Comparison ndash Retail

BBG code Mkt cap ------------------ EVEBITDA ------------------ ------------------------ PE ------------------------

2014E 2015E 2016E 2014E 2015E 2016E

Company (USD m) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x)

Magnit MM IN 16486 100 102 83 164 172 136

Migros Ticaret AS MGROS TI 1801 115 102 92 325 273 233

X 5 Retail Group FIVE LI 3285 69 67 58 108 107 85

Jeronimo Martins JMT PL 7091 95 93 86 191 191 171

Dairy Farm Intl Hldgs Ltd DFI SP 12129 182 165 150 244 219 198

Wumart Stores Inc-H 1025 HK 938 43 40 38 133 123 113

Cencosud SA CENCOSUD CI 6017 107 95 88 152 115 98

Walmart De Mexico-Ser V WALMEXV MM 36443 153 140 126 210 212 189

Pick N Pay Stores Ltd PIK SJ 2427 136 130 109 400 333 255

Shoprite Holdings Ltd SHP SJ 9229 115 110 98 249 249 218

Kroger Co KR US 33550 89 78 74 231 199 185

Safeway Inc SWY US 8095 61 59 67 331 303 289

Carrefour SA CA FP 23651 88 82 76 193 169 147

Koninklijke Ahold NV AH NA 16568 67 63 60 182 168 159

Delhaize Group DELB BB 8554 60 55 51 185 164 146

Tesco PLC TSCO LN 28166 61 107 104 69 206 189

Wal-mart Stores Inc WMT US 285900 82 82 80 171 177 171

Peer group average 95 92 85 208 199 175

BIMAS BIMAS TI 6910 224 177 149 341 262 220

Premium (Discount) to peers () 135 92 76 64 32 25

Sources Bloomberg estimates TEB InvestmentBNP Paribas estimates

In 2014 restrictions on credit card instalments hit the revenues of Bizim severely In

addition weak consumer sentiment and a tough competitive environment further hurt

revenue Despite the reversal of restrictions on corporate credit cards and acquisitionof the soft franchise system the company struggled to increase revenues due to

ongoing weak business activity In our view the HORECA segment will suffer as

tourism may come under pressure due to economic turmoil in Russia a major

market for the Turkish tourism industry

In this environment CCOLA is the most affected consumer name Because of a

strong base in 1H14 we expect weak y-y growth figures for CCOLA in the Turkish

market Except for Pakistan CCOLArsquos other markets (Iraq Kazakhstan Azerbaijan

etc) are adversely affected by low oil prices Hence growth rates will come under

pressure Moreover its strong base in international operations (9M14 +156) on the

back of strong growth in Kazakhstan (+20) puts further pressure on y-y growth

rates in international operations in 9M15 However low oil prices should provide

support for profit margins (lower distribution expenses and resin prices) Hence the

stock lacks a short-term catalyst though we believe that the long-term growth story

for the stock remains intact

In our view Ulker has a better growth outlook in 2015 and we expect a 5 increase

in unit sales on the back of growth in domestic consumption and new product

launches However ongoing problems in Iraq and other export markets pose a risk to

growth in unit sales We expect an around 7 increase in unit prices The acquisition

of international operations (Egypt and Saudi Arabia) is to be completed in 1Q15 We

expect roughly TRY300m in revenue from international operations for FY15

Moreover we expect a recovery in margins at Ulker to 124

Despite the attractive valuation of Anadolu Efes we believe downside risks are stillhigh in international operations Recall that beer consumption in Russia has

contracted by 4-5 on an annual basis since 2008 Moreover ongoing political

problems in Ukraine and slowdown in economic activity in Kazakhstan will continue

to hurt beer consumption High excise taxes and the governmentrsquos regulatory





restrictions will continue to hurt consumption growth in Turkey The companyrsquo s unit

sales have contracted 36 (on a CAGR basis) since 2008 due to a sharp increase

in excise taxes regulatory pressures and strong competition from rival Tuborg In

2015 we do not see a major change in outlook for the company so we remain

neutral


--- 12-Mth --- REC -- Reported PE -- ---- EV EBITDA ---- ---------- PBV -------- -- Gross div yield-- ----- EV Sales ----- --------- ROE ---------

Stock Price TP T Up lsquo13 lsquo14E lsquo15E lsquo13 lsquo14E lsquo15E lsquo13 lsquo14E lsquo15E lsquo13 lsquo14E lsquo15E lsquo13 lsquo14E lsquo15E lsquo13 lsquo14E lsquo15E

(TRY) (TRY) () (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () () (x) (x) (x) () () ()

Food amp Staples Retailing 13 353 337 258 237 213 168 142 123 100 15 19 21 11 09 08 445 391 428

BIMAS 4970 5700 15 BUY 365 337 257 243 217 170 151 129 105 15 19 21 12 10 08 460 414 451

BIZIM 1875 1970 5 HOLD 188 339 286 147 144 132 55 51 46 17 17 14 03 03 03 310 157 171

MGROS 2375 2410 1 HOLD na 367 271 160 139 116 51 45 38 00 00 00 09 07 06 (443) 130 152

Food amp Bev 12 na 285 218 na 156 127 24 23 21 16 12 11 27 24 20 24 82 101

Beverages 17 na 345 223 na 151 124 20 19 18 16 09 07 28 25 21 08 56 82

AEFES 2185 2450 12 HOLD na 327 210 na 151 123 14 13 12 23 10 08 28 25 21 321 41 61

CCOLA 4980 6200 24 BUY na 372 242 174 152 126 49 45 39 06 08 05 28 25 21 211 126 172


Real estate

(Emre Yuzbasioglu +90 216 636 4535 emreyuzbasioglutebyatirimcomtr )

At the beginning of 2014 markets were very volatile on the back of political tension

the 550bp CBRT policy rate hike in January and benchmark bond yields climbing to

12 levels The CBRT rate cuts in 2Q14 and 3Q14 helped the real estate market by

increasing affordability Home sales figures remained elevated and reached their

highest quarterly figures in 4Q14 Overall in a year like 2014 home sales figures

exceeded FY13 figures which was a historic year in terms of low interest rates and

high annual sales figures The fundamentals of the residential real estate sector ndashnamely a young population increasing urbanization decreasing household size and

urban transformation projects ndash remain supportive for coming years and these

fundamentals showed their strength in 2014 as home sale figures reached the same

levels as 2013 although average mortgage rates were around 2ppt higher than in

2013

EXHIBIT 34 Monthly home sales vs Interest rates EXHIBIT 35 Quarterly home sales vs Interest rates

Sources Turkstat CBRT Sources Turkstat CBRT

Mortgage uptake plays an important part in total home sales and low interest rates

are the key in higher usage ratios In June 2013 average mortgage rates declined to

a record low of 83 and mortgage usage increased to 454 The lowest rates in

2014 were around 107 in October and mortgage usage increased to one of its

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

(x)(units) Monthly home sales (LHS)

Inverted interest rates (RHS)

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

90000

139000

188000

237000

286000

335000

1 Q 0 8

3 Q 0 8

1 Q 0 9

3 Q 0 9

1 Q 1 0

3 Q 1 0

1 Q 1 1

3 Q 1 1

1 Q 1 2

3 Q 1 2

1 Q 1 3

3 Q 1 3

1 Q 1 4

3 Q 1 4

(x)(units) Quarterly home sales (LHS)






highest levels for the year In 2015 realized and expected rate cuts from the CBRT

will lead to a lower interest-rate environment and ECB QE might also provide room

to sustain that environment Overall we expect a benign interest rate environment

especially for 1H15 and the rest of the year will depend on the Fed decision

regarding a rate hike

EXHIBIT 36 Inverted interest rates vs share of mortgages EXHIBIT 37 Home sales vs share of mortgages

Sources Turkstat CBRT Source Turkstat

The probability of buying or building a home in the next 12 months a sub-index of

the consumer confidence index rose from 81 in November to 84 in December

while the Consumer Confidence Index continued to decline and was 678 in

December the lowest since January 2010 While longer-term trends of the two

indicators move parallel to each other we face countermoves for the short run such

as the divergence of the last month as seen in the chart below which suggest that

consumer appetite for buying homes has started to recover even though the overall

confidence index has declined heavily We think that consumer confidence will catch

up with home-buying appetite in the months ahead rather than the other way round

on the back of realized and expected CBRT rate cuts However consumers tend to

wait until the trough of the rate cycle before purchasing a house The probability of

buying a home increases after interest rates bottom out and start to rise Overall we

expect consumers to look closely at CBRT decisions in 1Q15 and to start to take

action in 2Q15 and beyond

EXHIBIT 38 Consumer Conf vs probability of buying a home EXHIBIT 39 Probability of buying a home vs Int rates

Source Turkstat Sources Turkstat CBRT

26

30

34

38

42

46

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

J a n

- 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y

- 1 3

J u

l - 1 3

S e p

- 1 3

N o v

- 1 3

J a n

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y

- 1 4

J u

l - 1 4

S e p

- 1 4

N o v

- 1 4

()(x) Inverted interest rates (LHS)

Share of mortgage (RHS)

26

30

34

38

42

46

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n

- 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y

- 1 3

J u

l - 1 3

S e p

- 1 3

N o v

- 1 3

J a n

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y

- 1 4

J u

l - 1 4

S e p

- 1 4

N o v

- 1 4

()(units) Home sales (LHS)


8

9

10

11

12

13

65

70

75

80

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

()(index) Consumer confidence (LHS)

Probability of buying a home (RHS)

8

9

10

11

12

13

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4







EXHIBIT 40 Probability of buying a home vs Home sales

Sources Turkstat TEB InvestmentBNP Paribas estimates

Automotive(Analyst Toygun Onaran +90 216 636 4533 toygunonarantebyatirimcomtr )

We expect the automotive companies to benefit from a better demand environment

supported by a low interest rate weaker euro and expected improvement in

consumer confidence in 2015 Light vehicle sales in Turkey contracted 10 y-y in

2014 as consumers shied away from buying new vehicles due to high interest rates

a weak TRY increased taxes and loan restrictions introduced at the beginning of the

year We saw two different trends in 2014 with the first half being worse as

consumer sentiment weakened severely with a negative impact on auto sales while

auto demand recovered in the second half benefiting from the stabilization of

interest rates and the TRY

EXHIBIT 41 Auto loan rates (weighted average)

Source Central Bank of Turkey

Auto sales contracted 25 y-y in 1H14 and posted 2 y-y growth in 2H14

Therefore we expect a higher growth rate in 1H15 benefiting from the low base of

the previous year while growth should moderate in 2H15 We believe that consumer

sentiment will be positively affected by the decline in interest rates and a weak euro

which should support consumersrsquo purchasing power Our forecasts indicate a 12 y-

y increase in light vehicle sales in Turkey in 2015 benefiting from 11 y-y growth in

passenger cars and 14 y-y growth in light commercial vehicles

8

9

10

11

12

13

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n - 1 3

F e b - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

A u g - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

()(units) Home sales (LHS) Probability of buying a home (RHS)

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15

()





EXHIBIT 42 Light vehicle sales volume breakdown

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Change 2015E Change

(units) (units) (units) (units) (units) (y-y ) (units) (y-y )

Total market

Domestic PC 155634 179488 146604 147128 157349 7 173084 10

Imported PC 354150 414031 409676 517527 429982 (17) 481580 12

PC 509784 593519 556280 664655 587331 (12) 654664 11

Domestic LCV 149720 158586 129399 98778 98224 (1) 113940 16

Imported LCV 101409 112334 92082 89945 82126 (9) 91981 12

LCV 251129 270920 221481 188723 180350 (4) 205921 14

Share in total sales () 330 313 285 221 235 14pp 239 04pp

Domestic LV 305354 338074 276003 245906 255573 4 287024 12

Imported LV 455559 526365 501758 607472 512108 (16) 573561 12

LV 760913 864439 777761 853378 767681 (10) 860585 12

Sources Automotive Manufacturers Association BNP ParibasTEB Investment estimates

On the other hand we expect the positive outlook in export markets to continue in2015 especially in Europe The ECBrsquos recently announced QE programme should

benefit consumers from a bank lending perspective and improve consumer

confidence levels

EXHIBIT 43 Global peer comparison

--------------------- EVEBITDA --------------------- --------------------------- PE ---------------------------

Company Country BBG code 2014E 2015E 2016E 2014E 2015E 2016E

(x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x)

Kia Motors Corporation South Korea 000270 KS 39 35 33 55 53 49

Hyundai Motor Co South Korea 005380 KS 63 61 58 53 51 49

Qingling Motors China 1122 HK 191 149 144 112 103 96

Tan Chong Motor Holdings Malaysia TCM MK 110 83 69 201 121 93

Great Wall Motor Company China 2333 HK 110 83 71 129 98 83

Dongfeng Motor Hong Kong 489 HK 436 386 353 64 61 54

Mahindra amp Mahindra India MM IN 117 126 105 185 189 149

Emerging markets median 110 83 71 112 98 83

Ford Motor Co US F US 49 34 31 135 93 79

Volkswagen Ag Germany VOW GR 82 75 68 92 85 77

Renault Sa France RNO FP 102 91 82 108 80 63

Peugeot Sa France UG FP 97 79 72 - 145 101

Fiat Spa Italy FCA IM 35 30 27 266 115 80

Nissan Motor Co Ltd Japan 7201 JP 113 96 86 116 94 82

Isuzu Motors Ltd Japan 7202 JP 62 59 52 112 113 98

Suzuki Motor Corp Japan 7269 JP 59 53 47 187 172 152

Bayerische Motoren Werke Germany BMW GR 106 102 97 117 111 107

Honda Motor Co Ltd Japan 7267 JP 92 89 80 113 108 94

Bilia Ab-A Shs Sweden BILIA SS 41 40 50 94 86 96

Developed markets median 82 75 68 114 108 94

Dogus Otomotiv Turkey DOAS TI 124 108 103 125 102 96

Ford Otosan (adjusted) Turkey FROTO TI 162 101 95 215 124 124

Tofas Turk Turkey TOASO TI 99 91 82 163 134 150







--- 12-Mth --- REC ---- Reported PE ---- --- EV EBITDA --- ---------- PBV --------- -- Gross div yield -- ------ EV Sales ----- --------- ROE ---------

Price TP T Up (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () (x) (x) (x) () () ()

(TRY) (TRY) () lsquo13 lsquo14E lsquo15E lsquo13 lsquo14E lsquo15E lsquo13 lsquo14E lsquo15E lsquo13 lsquo14E lsquo15E lsquo13 lsquo14E lsquo15E lsquo13 lsquo14E lsquo15E

Automobiles 5 178 172 98 137 118 99 43 39 31 46 36 42 10 10 09 241 237 350

DOAS 1440 1500 4 BUY 141 125 102 123 108 94 28 28 24 69 69 52 07 07 06 195 224 254

FROTO 3225 3320 3 HOLD 176 247 144 167 153 98 51 45 38 27 18 25 12 12 09 303 194 287

TOASO 1745 1880 8 BUY 201 150 74 118 98 102 46 39 29 55 40 55 11 12 12 219 281 449

Net of rightsSources Company Financials TEB InvestmentBNP Paribas estimates

Aviation(Alper Paksoy +90 216 636 4524 alperpaksoytebyatirimcomtr )

We forecast Turkish aviation will grow 10 in terms of passenger numbers in 2015

driven by 10 growth in international passengers This will again significantly exceed

our Turkish GDP growth rate expectation of 3 while it represents a slight slowdown

from 11 in 2011 We estimate the slight easing of the growth rate will mainly come

from the slowdown in domestic passenger growth given the vastly increased number

of domestic passengers in Turkey since 2003 Please see our report on Pegasus Airlines of 10 October 2014 Rapid and competitive growth for further details

We expect growth in scheduled air travel will again significantly exceed that in

charter air travel due to the increasing competitiveness of scheduled air travel in

terms of fares and number of destinations and quickly increasing capacities Listed

Turkish airline stocks Turkish Airlines (THYAO TI BUY CP TRY958 TP TRY103)

and Pegasus (PGSUS TI BUY CP TRY3185 TP TRY367) will benefit from this

trend given their being mainly involved in scheduled air travel

Despite the major decline in fuel prices since September 2014 we expect Turkish

airline stocks to face headwinds in terms of yields and margins in 2015 THY already

aims to increase passenger numbers 13 y-y and we understand it is looking to

further increase this by 2ppt Given THYrsquos planned growth rate significantly exceeds

the 5 growth in Europe and 7 worldwide expected by the International Air

Transport Association we estimate THY will have to pass all of the savings from fuel

on in its fares Given constraints at its main hub Istanbul Ataturk (IST) we expect it

will try to grow faster at Sabiha Gokcen (SAW) and create extra competition for

Pegasus which plans to grow 17-18 in terms of passenger numbers in 2015





EXHIBIT 45 Airline equities multiple comparison

BBG code Mkt capNet debt

EBITDA ------------ PE ------------ ------ EVEBITDA ------ -------- Net margin -------- ---- EBITDA margin ----

YE13 lsquo14E lsquo15E lsquo16E lsquo14E lsquo15E lsquo16E lsquo14E lsquo15E lsquo16E lsquo14E lsquo15E lsquo16E

(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

Europe

Air FranceKLM -FranceNetherlands

AF FP 27 40 neg 119 49 49 34 28 (2) 1 2 7 9 11

IAG (BAIberia) - UKSpain IAG LN 160 09 165 112 91 62 47 40 4 6 7 13 15 17

Lufthansa Group - Germany LHA GR 80 08 144 71 60 38 30 27 2 3 4 8 10 11

Ryanair - Ireland RYA ID 159 00 nm 170 150 115 97 86 10 14 15 20 25 26

Easyjet - UK EZJ LN 102 (09) 142 132 120 84 79 70 10 11 11 15 16 17

Average 528 04 151 121 94 69 57 50 5 7 8 13 15 16

Americas

LATAM Group - BrazilChile LFL US 62 44 neg 177 122 90 73 68 0 3 4 12 16 18

Gol - Brazil GOLL4 BZ 15 31 neg nm 204 85 64 65 (4) 1 2 11 14 15

Copa - Panama CPA US 50 (01) 113 121 108 87 91 79 16 15 16 23 23 23

Average 127 25 113 149 115 87 76 71 4 6 7 15 17 19

Asia

Qantas - Australia QAN AU 41 16 neg 116 66 87 38 28 (3) 3 5 6 13 15

Air China - China 601111 CH 156 73 nm 143 142 110 81 76 3 6 5 17 21 20

China Eastern - China 670 HK 93 76 nm 118 104 110 86 79 2 5 5 14 18 18

Cathay Pasific - Hong Kong 293 HK 92 33 203 118 99 83 65 59 3 6 6 13 16 16

Jet Airways - India JETIN IN 08 120 neg neg 87 neg 191 107 (10) (2) 3 (3) 5 9

Singapore Airlines - Singapore SIA SP 109 (23) nm nm 200 47 53 45 3 3 5 13 13 16

Korean Airlines - Korea 003490 KS 24 89 neg 82 78 82 65 62 (3) 3 3 17 21 20

Asiana - Korea 020560 KS 14 111 neg 108 93 115 77 71 (1) 2 3 8 11 12

China Southern - China 1055 HK 74 72 nm 114 106 93 68 64 1 4 4 13 17 16

China Airlines - China 2610 TT 27 63 neg 197 237 92 63 65 (1) 3 2 13 18 16

Thai Airways - Thailand THAI TB 10 53 neg nm 87 182 76 63 (8) 0 2 6 13 14

Average 648 49 nm 125 96 100 67 61 (1) 3 4 11 15 16

All Average 28 141 123 103 84 66 59 1 4 5 12 16 16

Pegasus - Turkey PGSUS TI 14 12 116 147 128 81 71 75 8 6 6 13 12 12

THY - Turkey THYAO TI 56 39 74 84 101 86 76 77 7 5 4 12 14 15

Priced close of 23 Jan 2015Source Bloomberg


Price --- 12-mth --- REC --- Reported PE --- ---- EVEBITDA ---- -------- PBV -------- --- Gross div yield --- ------ EVsales ------ --------- ROE ---------

TP T Up lsquo13 lsquo14E lsquo15E lsquo13 lsquo14E lsquo15E lsquo13 lsquo14E lsquo15E lsquo13 lsquo14E lsquo15E lsquo13 lsquo14E lsquo15E lsquo13 lsquo14E lsquo15E

(TRY) (TRY) () (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () ()

Airlines 7 224 85 91 95 86 74 20 16 13 11 00 00 13 11 11 104 208 153

THYAO 971 1030 6 BUY 212 80 85 95 87 74 19 15 12 13 00 00 12 11 11 102 207 154

PGSUS 3185 3670 15 BUY 345 122 145 92 85 70 28 24 19 00 00 00 16 11 09 128 213 149


Steel(Alper Paksoy +90 216 636 4524 alperpaksoytebyatirimcomtr )

We expect listed Turkish steel producers most of which are integrated through the

BOF route will face much less benign conditions in 2015 This will be due to average

sales prices coming down more than raw material prices such as iron ore and coking

coal Steel prices came down 15-20 from early September 2014 through

December 2014 while raw material prices have largely remained unchanged

Turkish integrated steel producers have enjoyed bumper profits since 2H13 with

international raw material prices for integrated producers plummeting since then on

contracting Chinese demand Chinese steel production grew at 13 per annum





between 2003 and 2012 but growth slowed to 7 in 2013 (accounting for nearly 50

of world steel production of 16b tonnes) and an estimated 4 in 2014 on our

estimates on a slowdown in domestic demand growth This has led to major

declines in steel making raw material prices especially in 1H14 when combined with

new major capacity being brought online by large mining companies especially for

Chinese consumption With the cost advantage coming from substantially lower raw

material prices Chinese steel producers increasingly turned to export markets in

2H14 registering an around 70 y-y increase in exports in tonnes and putting major

downward pressure on world steel prices We expect Chinese steel producers willincrease their exports 30-40 y-y in 2015 after the 50 y-y increase in 2014 and

continue applying significant downward pressure to world steel prices as well as the

margins of Turkish steel producers

We prefer Kardemir (KRDMD TI BUY CP TRY205 TP TRY238) over Erdemir

(EREGL TI HOLD CP TRY481 TP TRY423) given its favourable valuation and

our expectation that it will be able to increase its earnings and maintain its margins

despite the downward pressure of lower steel prices We expect Kardemir will be

able to defend its EBITDA margin on unit sales rising c20 y-y on increased

capacity and additional savings from higher energy self-sufficiency We foresee only

a 3 y-y increase in Erdemirrsquos unit sales in 2015 and a 20 decline in net profit

Please see our report of 15 December 2014 Tailwinds turning to headwinds for

further details

EXHIBIT 47 Steel equities multiple comparison

Mkt capNet debtEBITDA ----------- PE ----------- ------ EVEBITDA ------ ----- Net Margin ----- --- EBITDA margin ---

Company Business 2013 lsquo14E lsquo15E lsquo16E lsquo14E lsquo15E lsquo16E lsquo14E lsquo15E lsquo16E lsquo14E lsquo15E lsquo16E

(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

AMERICAS

CSN (CSNA3 BZ) Integrated Mining 29 39 -986 -1095 269 62 85 68 0 0 2 27 21 24

Usiminas (USIM5 BZ) Integrated 32 12 487 106 95 77 82 69 1 1 3 15 14 15

US Steel (X US) Integrated 33 42 93 77 81 42 37 33 2 2 3 8 9 10

Average 31 93 91 88 60 68 57 1 1 2 17 14 16

ASIA

China Steel (2002 TT) Integrated 134 38 205 189 168 110 101 94 6 6 7 17 19 19

Posco (005490 KS) Integrated 222 12 170 106 95 70 63 59 2 3 4 10 11 11

Severstal (SVST LI) Integrated 79 18 167 77 81 42 42 40 5 11 10 24 25 23

Novolipetsk (NLMK LI) Integrated Mining 75 18 85 89 91 42 41 40 8 8 8 21 22 21

Nippon Steel (5401 JP) Integrated 235 68 104 107 87 81 78 66 4 5 6 12 12 14

Baoshan (600019 CH) Integrated 162 26 152 129 109 72 64 55 3 4 4 11 12 12

Average 30 95 102 93 61 58 59 5 6 6 16 17 17

EUROPE

Acerinox (ACX SM) IntegStainless 38 26 212 155 132 95 80 70 4 4 4 10 10 10

ArcelorMittal (MT US) Integrated 168 26 129 105 70 52 48 41 6 6 7 9 10 10

SSAB (SSABA SS) Integrated 26 127 1923 158 105 95 80 70 0 2 3 8 10 11

Average 60 129 105 102 81 69 61 3 4 5 9 10 11

All average 38 180 106 111 70 67 59 34 44 50 14 14 15

Kardemir (KRDMD TI) Integrated 08 22 65 76 75 70 67 54 17 14 12 25 25 25

Erdemir (EREGL TI) Integrated 72 13 95 129 118 69 82 76 14 12 13 22 20 21

Priced at close of 23 Jan 2015Multiples for Erdemir and Kardemir may slightly differ from those elsewhere in this report as they are based on USD and calculated based on year-end balance sheet positionsrather than averages Mcap and multiples for Kardemir only for D-class share

Sources TEB InvestmentBNP Paribas estimates for Kardemir and Erdemir and Bloomberg for the rest






--- 12-Mth --- REC ----- Report PE ----- ----- EVEBITDA ----- -------- PBV -------- -- Gross div yield-- ----- EVsales ----- -------- ROE --------

Price TP T Up lsquo13 lsquo14E lsquo15E lsquo13 lsquo14E lsquo15E lsquo13 lsquo14E lsquo15E lsquo13 lsquo14E lsquo15E lsquo13 lsquo14E lsquo15E lsquo13 lsquo14E lsquo15E

(TRY (TRY () (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () (x) (x) (x) () () ()

Metals amp Mining (6) 139 87 100 78 65 69 17 15 14 27 40 57 19 16 16 130 181 146

EREGL 483 423 (12) HOLD 184 103 130 103 74 83 20 18 18 31 49 73 20 16 17 117 185 139

KOZAA 166 201 21 BUY 31 66 72 17 41 60 05 05 04 00 00 00 09 16 22 161 71 60

KOZAL 1800 1860 3 HOLD 57 101 109 24 37 36 16 15 13 46 53 30 15 18 17 306 150 128

KRDMD 206 238 16 BUY 160 47 44 85 57 53 13 10 08 00 00 00 16 15 13 84 245 209

PRKME 406 550 35 BUY 96 104 77 55 43 33 12 11 10 00 29 24 na na na na na na






Stock preferences for 2015

Top preferences

Halkbank (HALKB TI BUY CP TRY164 TP TRY1944)(Fatih Topac +90 216 636 4508 fatihtopactebyatirimcomtr )

Halkbank has the most appealing valuation among the large-cap banks in our

coverage as well as the highest ROE among peers despite solid catalysts The stockis oversold on the large-ticket NPL issue This in our view was a specific case with a

high likelihood of recovery in 2016 We are not in anticipation of further large-size

NPLs from the bank this year

We expect the bank to complete the divestiture of its insurance subsidiary in 2Q15 at

rich multiples On the way to the subsidiary sale news flow regarding due diligence

preliminary bids and the announcement of shortlist are set to keep investor interest

high on Halk

Financial intermediation of Halk between Turkey and Northern Iraq as well as Iran

seems set to continue for the foreseeable future Waivers to Iran have been

extended until June 2015 and more time could be granted as long as Iran continues

taking constructive steps

On core operational performance management is looking for a sector-topping

budget of 20bp NIM enhancement y-y in 2015 while we are looking for a slight drop

in our estimates 20-22 ROE guidance is also the highest among those banks that

have announced ROE guidance 7ppt of which should stem from the divestiture of

insurance subsidiaries in our view 16-18 loan growth guidance is parallel to peersrsquo

budgets for 2015 while our expectation is at the lowest end of this range

Managementrsquos fee income expectation of 10 and opex growth expectation of 11-

13 are parallel to our expectations Management expects a solid improvement in

asset quality with a 32-34 NPL ratio versus 37 at end-3Q14 and 70-80bp

specific CoR corresponding to a remarkable 20bp improvement y-y For next year

we expect 14 ROE while management guides for 20-22 including the 100provisioning of the large-scale NPL in 2Q15 and one-off profit items like the

insurance sale that is to take place in the same quarter

Even on our current conservative estimates 2015E 11x PBV and 82x PE multiples

are at the low end of the peer group range and could get even more appealing if the

bank delivers the numbers indicated in the budget

Turkcell (TCELL TI BUY CP TRY144 TP TRY1760)(Analyst Toygun Onaran +90 216 636 4533 toygunonarantebyatirimcomtr )

In line with the profitable growth strategy Turkcell remained focused on expanding

the post-paid customer base (from 375 in 2012 to 43 in 3Q14) and increasing

smartphone penetration (from 18 in 2012 to 37 in 3Q14) Both mobile data andfibre broadband segments continue to be the main drivers of revenue growth In

3Q14 these segments posted 38 y-y growth and accounted for 27 of

consolidated revenues up from 21 in 3Q13 We expect mobile and fibre

broadband segments to drive growth in Turkcellrsquos revenues in 2015 with expected

y-y growth of 25 and 15 respectively

The company is expecting to reach a more balanced revenue structure benefiting

from high growth rates in mobile broadband and fibre broadband revenues Currently

mobile broadband accounts for 17 of total revenues and is growing more than 30

a year Its share is expected to reach 30-35 in the medium term Fibre broadband

accounts for 10 of revenues is growing at high rates and is expected by the

company to make a 20 contribution in the medium term We expect Turkcellrsquosoperations to be resilient to the volatility in GDP growth as GDP sensitivity of mobile

communication is not very high We also think that Turkcell is well protected from the

fluctuations in interest rates and TRY thanks to its cash-rich balance sheet (TRY52b

net cash position as at end-3Q14)





The shareholdersrsquo dispute that blocked the dividend payment since 2010 has ended

following Cukurovarsquos payment to Alfa This has raised expectations for the

distribution of the long-awaited dividend Additionally CMB holds the right to

intervene and decide for a dividend distribution after 31 March 2015 if Turkcell fails

to convene its General Assembly Our base-case scenario indicates a TRY190 per

share cash dividend distribution from the aggregated earnings between 2010 and

2014 which implies a 131 dividend yield

At 127x 2015E PE Turkcell is trading at a 3 discount its global peer group Whenadjusted for the dividend Turkcellrsquos 2015E PE drops to 110x which implies a 16

discount to its global peer group

Aselsan (ASELS TI BUY CP TRY1215 TP TRY139) (Emre Yuzbasioglu +90 216 636 4535 emreyuzbasioglutebyatirimcomtr )

We think that sizeable prospective contracts such as a long-range air defence

missile system and Altay tank serial production are on the horizon which could bring

an additional USD15b order backlog to the company Although the possibility of the

blacklisted (by the US) Chinese company CPMIEC (a state-owned enterprise)

winning the long-range air defence system tender is still on the table we expect the

government to cancel its negotiations with CPMIEC and choose EUROSAM (not

listed) or Raytheon (RTN US) on this tender In addition to the above protection ofthe Strategic Targets tender and Stand-Off Jammer projects should be watched

closely in 2015 and 2016 respectively Delivery schedules on these projects are

crucial to our valuation and pose upside risk

We believe Aselsanrsquos SPO (secondary placement offering) decision which is

awaiting the result of this long-range missile deal is an opportunity for the company

to increase its daily trading volume and lift market capitalisation as the SPO is

planned to be a restricted rights issue

Aselsan generates 97 of its revenue from defence contracts vs about 60 for its

global peers Management plans to expand its focus on civilian contracts in sectors

such as energy and transportation to increase its growth opportunities We welcome

this strategy as a civilian focus should enhance growth prospects in addition to the

bright defence revenue outlook

Management has been putting hard work into new collaboration agreements on both

civilian and non-Turkey defence projects and signed a couple of MoU agreements

with several companies such as IBM (development of metal-air batteries) Durmazlar

(supply and development of electronic systems for trains) and Eurofighter Typhoon

(development of engine control systems) whose benefits we expect to see in the

medium to long term

The nature of the defence business allows Aselsan to benefit from TRY depreciation

as 83 of its revenue is denominated in FX vs 60 of costs

Tofas Otomobil (TOASO TI BUY CP TRY174 TP TRY1880)(Toygun Onaran +90 216 636 4533 toygunonarantebyatirimcomtr )

The recovery in domestic light vehicle sales in the second half of 2014 was better

than our expectations We have seen a significant recovery in LCV demand thanks

to a 75 reduction in K license fees effective from July 2014 In December 2014 LV

sales increased 13 y-y to 147K bringing cumulative sales to 768k units in 2014

indicating 10 y-y contraction Thanks to the superior sales performance in the last

month of the year 2014 domestic LV sales exceeded our estimate of 700K units by a

wide margin Following a 25 contraction in 1H14 domestic demand improved

significantly in the second half as LV sales grew by 2 in 2H14 We expect the

upbeat demand to continue in 1H15 and forecast an around 10 y-y increase in LV

sales given the low base impact of 1H14

The completion of Doblo US investment will help Tofas to diversify its export markets

starting from 4Q14 Tofas will export at least 175k units of Doblo to the US until 2021





We expect US exports to be 45k units in 2014 and 15-20k annually starting from

2015 With the contribution of US Doblo sales Doblo capacity increased to 190k

units (up from 160k) with 150k under take-or-pay agreement

Tofas is planning to complete a new passenger car a compact sedan model to be

built on a new platform investment by 2H15 Tofas will also develop compact

hatchback and station wagon versions of this model by 2016 Accordingly with the

completion of these model investments Tofasrsquo PC production capacity will be 160k

units annually starting from 2016 Renewal of the Minicargo model will be on thetable in 2015 where the main focus will be on the content of the take-or-pay

agreement We expect the Minicargo capacity to be limited to 50k (down from 165k)

starting from 2016

We expect 2014 and 2015 EBITDA margins to be strong at 122 and 117

respectively benefiting from weak TRY and positive contribution of take-or-pay

agreements We believe Tofas is well positioned to benefit from the recovery in

domestic demand especially in LCVs Additionally new PC models will provide a

more balanced product portfolio for Tofas and increase the companyrsquos

competitiveness in both domestic and export markets

Bim Birlesik Magazalar (BIMAS TI BUY CP TRY5015 TP TRY57)

(Kenan Cosguner +90 216 636 4531 kenancosgunertebyatirimcomtr )

We believe recovery in profit margins will continue into 2015 as new stores come

online to generate revenues and the company feels less inflationary pressure

(current inflation running at around 9 compared with as low as 6 for mid-2015)

Lower fuel expenses should help consumer budgets and tame inflationary pressure

We think the market has misinterpreted BIMrsquos aspirations to expand into

supermarkets We donrsquot think it is related to the maturation of the discount channel

but is more to do with potential opportunities in the supermarket channel after years

of bleeding profitability and subpar growth due to relentless competition from the

discount channel

BIM has benefited from trading down as consumers try to make the most out of their

budgets in 2014 High food inflation while increasing the top line has had a negative

impact on margins BIM has been successful in passing on cost pressures while

accelerating growth (adding 500 new stores a year in Turkey from 2014) We raise

our EBITDA margin estimate 10bp for 2015-16 resulting in 2 increases in our

2015-16 EBITDA and net income estimates

Coca ndashCola Icecek (CCOLA TI BUY CP TRY4940 TP TRY620)


We favour CCOLA as a long-term growth play Despite a weak growth outlook for

FY15 we still expect a 13 top-line CAGR and 17 earnings CAGR over the next

three years

CCOLA is one of the few companies in the consumer space that is demonstrating

solid sustainable earnings performance in the current weak growth environment

In our view the current share price weakness (the stock underperformed the BIST by

25 in the past one year) is a good opportunity to accumulate the stock for the

medium term as among our major consumer names it offers the best risk-return

profile CCOLA trades at an 114x 12-month forward EVEBITDA ie at the lower-

end of its historical 115-17x trading range







Disclaimers and Disclosures

APPENDIX

DISCLAIMERS AND DISCLOSURES APPLICABLE TO NON-US BROKER-DEALER(S) TEB Investment BNP Paribas JV

ANALYST(S) CERTIFICATION

Mete Yuksel TEB Investment BNP Paribas JV +90 216 6364536 meteyukseltebcomtr

The analyst(s) or strategist(s) herein each referred to as analyst(s) named in this report certify(ies) that (i) all views expressed in this report accurately

reflect the personal view of the analyst(s) with regard to any and all of the subject securities companies or issuers mentioned in this report and (ii) no partof the compensation of the analyst(s) was is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the researchanalyst herein Analysts mentioned in this disclaimer are employed by a non-US affiliate of BNP Paribas Securities Corp and are not registered qualified pursuant to NYSEandor FINRA regulations

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES REQUIRED IN THE UNITED STATES BY FINRA RULES AND OTHER JURISDICTIONSBNP Paribasrdquo is the marketing name for the global banking and markets business of BNP Paribas Group No portion of this report was prepared by BNPParibas Securities Corp (US) personnel and it is considered Third-Party Affiliate research under NASD Rule 2711 The following disclosures relate torelationships between companies covered in this research report and the BNP entity identified on the cover of this report BNP Securities Corp and otherentities within the BNP Paribas Group (collectively BNP Paribas)

The disclosure column in the following table lists the important disclosures applicable to each company that has been rated andor recommended in thisreport

Company Ticker Disclosure (as applicable)

NA NA NA

BNP Paribas represents that1 Within the past year it has managed or co-managed a public offering for this company for which it received fees2 It had an investment banking relationship with this company in the last 12 months3 It received compensation for investment banking services from this company in the last 12 months4 It expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from the subject companyies in the next 3 months5 It beneficially owns 1 or more of any class of common equity securities of the subject company6 It makes a market in securities in respect of this company7 The analyst(s) or an individual who assisted in the preparation of this report (or a member of hisher household) has a financial interest position in

securities issued by this company The financial interest is in the common stock of the subject company unless otherwise noted8 The analyst (or a member of hisher household) is an officer director or advisory board member of this company or has received compensation from the

company

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES REQUIRED IN KOREAThe disclosure column in the following table lists the important disclosures applicable to each Korea listed company that has been rated andorrecommended in this report

Company Ticker Price (as of 26-Jan-2015 closing price) Interest

NA NA NA NA

1 The performance of obligations of the Company is directly or indirectly guaranteed by BNP Paribas Securities Korea Co Ltd (ldquoBNPPSKrdquo) by means ofpayment guarantees endorsements and provision of collaterals andor taking over the obligations

2 BNPPSK owns 1100 or more of the total outstanding shares issued by the Company3 The Company is an affiliate of BNPPSK as prescribed by Item 3 Article 2 of the Monopoly Regulation and Fair Trade Act4 BNPPSK is the financial advisory agent of the Company for the Merger and Acquisition transaction or of the Target Company whereby the size of the

transaction does not exceed 5100 of the total asset of the Company or the total number of outstanding shares5 BNPPSK has taken financial advisory service regarding listing to the Company within the past 1 year6 With regards to the tender offer initiated by the Company based on Item 2 Article 133 of the Financial Investment Services and Capital Market Act

BNPPSK acts in the capacity of the agent for the tender offer designated either by the Company or by the target company provided that this provisionshall apply only where tender offer has not expired

7 The listed company which issued the stocks in question in case where 40 days has not passed since the new shares were listed from the date of enteringinto arrangement for public offering or underwriting-related agreement for issuance of stocks

8 The Company that has signed a nominated advisor contract with BNPPSK as defined in Item 2 of Article 8 of the KONEX Market Listing Regulation9 The Company is recognized as having considerable interests with BNPPSK in relation to No1 to No 810 The analyst or hisher spouse owns (including delivery claims of marketable securities based on legal regulations and trading and misc contracts) the

following securities or rights (hereinafter referred to as ldquoSecurities etcrdquo in this Article) regardless of whose name is used in the trading1) Stocks bond with stock certificate and certificate of pre-emptive rights issued by the Company whose securities dealings are being solicited2) Stock options of the Company whose securities dealings are being solicited3) Individual stock future stock option and warrants that use the stocks specified in Item 1) as underlying

GENERAL DISCLAIMERThis report was produced by TEB Investment BNP Paribas JV member company(ies) of the BNP Paribas GroupThis report is for the use of intended recipients only and may not be reproduced (in whole or in part) or delivered or transmitted to any other person withoutour prior written consent By accepting this report the recipient agrees to be bound by the terms and limitations set forth hereinThis report does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives financial situations or needs ofindividual clients Customers are advised to use the information contained herein as just one of many inputs and considerations prior to engaging in any





trading activity This report does not constitute a prospectus or other offering document or an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or otherinvestments This report is not intended to provide the sole basis of any evaluation of the subject securities and companies mentioned in this reportInformation and opinions contained in this report are published for reference of the recipients and are not to be relied upon as authoritative or without therecipientrsquos own independent verification or taken in substitution for the exercise of judgment by the recipient Additionally the products mentioned in thisreport may not be available for sale in certain jurisdictions As an investment bank with a wide range of activities BNP Paribas may face conflicts of interest which are resolved under applicable legal provisions andinternal guidelines You should be aware however that BNP Paribas may engage in transactions in a manner inconsistent with the views expressed in thisdocument either for its own account or for the account of its clients

Australia This report is being distributed in Australia by BNP Paribas Sydney Branch registered in Australia as ABN 23 000 000 117 at 60 Castlereagh StreetSydney NSW 2000 BNP Paribas Sydney Branch is licensed under the Banking Act 1959 and the holder of Australian Financial Services Licence no 238043 andtherefore subject to regulation by the Australian Securities amp Investments Commission in relation to delivery of financial services By accepting this document

you agree to be bound by the foregoing limitations and acknowledge that information and opinions in this document relate to financial products or financialservices which are delivered solely to wholesale clients (in terms of the Corporations Act 2001 sections 761G and 761GA Corporations Regulations 2001division 2 reg 7118 amp 7119) andor professional investors (as defined in section 9 of the Corporations Act 2001)

Canada The information contained herein is not and under no circumstances is to be construed as a prospectus an advertisement a public offering anoffer to sell securities described herein or solicitation of an offer to buy securities described herein in Canada or any province or territory thereof Any offeror sale of the securities described herein in Canada will be made only under an exemption from the requirements to file a prospectus with the relevantCanadian securities regulators and only by a dealer properly registered under applicable securities laws or alternatively pursuant to an exemption from thedealer registration requirement in the relevant province or territory of Canada in which such offer or sale is made The information contained herein is underno circumstances to be construed as investment advice in any province or territory of Canada and is not tailored to the needs of the recipient To the extentthat the information contained herein references securities of an issuer incorporated formed or created under the laws of Canada or a province or territoryof Canada any trades in such securities must be conducted through a dealer registered in Canada No securities commission or similar regulatory authority inCanada has reviewed or in any way passed judgment upon these materials the information contained herein or the merits of the securities described hereinand any representation to the contrary is an offence

Hong Kong This report is prepared for professional investors and is being distributed in Hong Kong by BNP Paribas Securities (Asia) Limited to persons whosebusiness involves the acquisition disposal or holding of securities whether as principal or agent BNP Paribas Securities (Asia) Limited a subsidiary of BNPParibas is regulated by the Securities and Futures Commission for the conduct of dealing in securities advising on securities providing automated trading

services dealing in futures contacts and advising on corporate finance For professional investors in Hong Kong please contact BNP Paribas Securities (Asia)Limited for all matters and queries relating to this report

India In India this document is being distributed by BNP Paribas Securities India Pvt Ltd (BNPPSIPL) having its registered office at 5 th floor BNP ParibasHouse 1 North Avenue Maker Maxity Bandra Kurla Complex Bandra (East) Mumbai 400 051 INDIA (Tel no +91 22 3370 4000 6196 4000 Fax no +91 226196 4363) BNPPSIPL is registered with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (ldquoSEBIrdquo) as a stockbroker in the Equities and the Futures amp Optionssegments of National Stock Exchange of India Ltd and BSE Ltd (SEBI Regn Nos INBINF231474835 INBINF011474831 CIN U74920MH2008FTC182807Website wwwbnpparibascoin )

Indonesia This report is being distributed by PT BNP Paribas Securities Indonesia and is delivered by its licensed employee(s) including marketingsalesperson to its client PT BNP Paribas Securities Indonesia having its registered office at Menara BCA 35th floor Grand Indonesia JL MH Thamrin No1 Jakarta 10310 Indonesia is a subsidiary company of BNP Paribas SA and licensed under Capital Market Law no 8 year 1995 a holder of broker-dealer andunderwriter licenses issued by the Capital Market and Financial Institution Supervisory Agency (now Otoritas Jasa KeuanganOJK) PT BNP Paribas SecuritiesIndonesia is also a member of Indonesia Stock Exchange and supervised by Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK) Neither this report nor any copy hereof may bedistributed in Indonesia or to any Indonesian citizens except in compliance with applicable Indonesian capital market laws and regulations This report is notan offer of securities in Indonesia and may not be distributed within the territory of the Republic of Indonesia or to Indonesian citizens in circumstance whichconstitutes an offering within the meaning of Indonesian capital market laws and regulations

Japan This report is being distributed to Japanese based firms by BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited or by a subsidiary or affiliate of BNP Paribas notregistered as a financial instruments firm in Japan to certain financial institutions defined by article 17-3 item 1 of the Financial Instruments and ExchangeLaw Enforcement Order BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited is a financial instruments firm registered according to the Financial Instruments andExchange Law of Japan and a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association the Financial Futures Association of Japan and the Type II FinancialInstruments Firms Association BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited accepts responsibility for the content of a report prepared by another non-Japanaffiliate only when distributed to Japanese based firms by BNP Paribas Securities (Japan) Limited Some of the foreign securities stated on this report are notdisclosed according to the Financial Instruments and Exchange Law of Japan

Malaysia This report is issued and distributed by BNP Paribas Capital (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd The views and opinions in this research report are our own as ofthe date hereof and are subject to change BNP Paribas Capital (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd has no obligation to update its opinion or the information in this researchreport This publication is strictly confidential and is for private circulation only to clients of BNP Paribas Capital (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd This publication isbeing provided to you strictly on the basis that it will remain confidential No part of this material may be (i) copied photocopied duplicated stored orreproduced in any form by any means or (ii) redistributed or passed on directly or indirectly to any other person in whole or in part for any purposewithout the prior written consent of BNP Paribas Capital (Malaysia) Sdn Bhd

Philippines This report is being distributed in the Philippines by BNP Paribas Manila Branch an Offshore Banking Unit (OBU) of BNP Paribas whose headoffice is in Paris France BNP Paribas Manila OBU is registered as an offshore banking unit under Presidential Decree No 1034 (PD 1034) and regulated bythe Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas This report is being distributed in the Philippines to qualified clients of OBUs as allowed under PD 1034 and is qualified in its

entirety to the products and services allowed under PD 1034Singapore This report is distributed in Singapore by BNP Paribas Securities (Singapore) Pte Ltd (BNPPSSL) and may be distributed in Singapore only to an Accredited or Institutional Investor each as defined under the Financial Advisers Regulations (FAR) and the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289) ofSingapore as amended from time to time In relation to the distribution to such categories of investors BNPPSSL and its representatives are exempted underRegulation 35 of the FAR from the requirements in Section 36 of the Financial Advisers Act of Singapore regarding the disclosure of certain interests in orcertain interests in the acquisition or disposal of securities referred to in this report For Institutional and Accredited Investors in Singapore please contactBNP Paribas Securities (Singapore) Ptd Ltd (company registration number 199801966C address 10 Collyer Quay 34F Ocean Financial Centre Singapore049315 tel (65) 6210 1288 fax (65) 6210 1980) for all matters and queries relating to this report

South Africa In South Africa BNP Paribas Cadiz Securities (Pty) Ltd and BNP Paribas Cadiz Stock Broking (Pty) Ltd (hereinafter referred to as ldquoBNPP Cadizrdquo)are licensed members of Johannesburg Stock Exchange and are authorised Financial Services Providers and subject to regulation by the Financial ServicesBoard BNPP Cadiz does not expressly or by implication represent recommend or propose that the financial products referred to in this report areappropriate to the particular investment objectives financial situation or particular needs of the recipient

South Korea BNP Paribas Securities Korea is registered as a Licensed Financial Investment Business Entity under the FINANCIAL INVESTMENT SERVICES ANDCAPITAL MARKETS ACT and regulated by the Financial Supervisory Service and Financial Services Commission This document does not constitute an offer tosell to or the solicitation of an offer to buy from any person any financial products where it is unlawful to make the offer or solicitation in South KoreaSwitzerland This report is intended solely for customers who are ldquoQualified Investorsrdquo as defined in article 10 paragraphs 3 and 4 of the Swiss Federal Acton Collective Investment Schemes of 23 June 2006 (CISA) and the relevant provisions of the Swiss Federal Ordinance on Collective Investment Schemes of 22November 2006 (CISO) ldquoQualified Investorsrdquo includes among others regulated financial intermediaries such as banks securities dealers fund managementcompanies and asset managers of collective investment schemes regulated insurance companies as well as pension funds and companies with professionaltreasury operations This document may not be suitable for customers who are not Qualified Investors and should only be used and passed on to QualifiedInvestors For specification purposes a ldquoSwiss Corporate Customerrdquo is a Client which is a corporate entity incorporated and existing under the laws ofSwitzerland and which qualifies as ldquoQualified Investorrdquo as defined above BNP Paribas (Suisse) SA is authorised as bank and as securities dealer by the Swiss





Federal Market Supervisory Authority FINMA BNP Paribas (Suisse) SA is registered at the Geneva commercial register under No CH-270-3000542-1 BNPParibas (Suisse) SA is incorporated in Switzerland with limited liability Registered Office 2 place de Hollande CH-1204 Geneva

Taiwan Information on securities that trade in Taiwan is distributed by BNP Paribas Securities (Taiwan) Co Ltd Such information is for your reference onlyThe reader should independently evaluate the investment risks and is solely responsible for their investment decision Information on securities that do nottrade in Taiwan is for informational purposes only and is not to be construed as a recommendation or a solicitation to trade in such securities BNP ParibasSecurities (Taiwan) Co Ltd may not execute transactions for clients in these securities This publication may not be distributed to the public media orquoted or used by the public media without the express written consent of BNP Paribas

Thailand Research relating to Thailand and Thailand based issuers is produced pursuant to an arrangement between BNP PARIBAS (ldquoBNPPrdquo) and FinansiaSyrus Securities Public Company Limited (ldquoFSSrdquo) FSS International Investment Advisory Securities Co Ltd (ldquoFSSIArdquo) prepares and distributes research underthe brand name ldquoBNP PARIBASFSSrdquo BNPP is not an affiliate of FSSIA or FSS FSS also publishes a different research product under the brand nameldquoFINANSIA SYRUSrdquo which is prepared by research analysts who are not part of FSSIA and who may cover the same securities issuers or industries that arethe subject of this report

The ratings recommendations and views expressed in this report may differ from the ratings recommendations and viewsexpressed by other research analysts or research teams employed by FSS This report is being distributed outside Thailand by members of BNP Paribas

Turkey This report is being distributed in Turkey by TEB Investment (TEB YATIRIM MENKUL DEGERLER AS Teb Kampus D Blok Saray Mah Kucuksu CadSokullu Sok No7 34768 Umraniye Istanbul Turkey Trade register number 358354 wwwtebyatirimcomtr ) and outside Turkey jointly by TEB Investmentand BNP Paribas Information comments and suggestions on investment given in this material are not within the scope of investment consulting Theinvestment consulting services are rendered tailor made for individuals by competent authorities considering the individuals 991257 risk and return preferencesHowever the comments and recommendations herein are based on general principles These opinions may not be consistent with your financial status aswell as your risk and return preferences Therefore making an investment decision only based on the information provided herein may not bearconsequences in parallel with your expectations This material issued by TEB Yat

983345

r983345

m Menkul Değ

erler AŞ

for information purposes only and may bechanged without any prior notification All rights reserved No part of this material may be copied or reproduced in any manner without the written consentof TEB Yat983345 r 983345 m Menkul De ğ erler AŞ Although TEB Yat 983345 r 983345 m Menkul De ğ erler AŞ gathers the presented material that is current as possible it does notundertake that all the information is accurate or complete nor should it be relied upon as such TEB Yat 983345 r983345 m Menkul De ğ erler AŞ assumes no responsibilitywhatsoever in respect of or arising out or in connection with the content of this material to third parties If any third party chooses to use the content of thismaterial as reference heshe accepts and approves to do so entirely at hisher own risk

United States This report may be distributed in the United States only to US Persons who are ldquomajor US institutional investorsrdquo (as such term is defined inRule 15a-6 under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 as amended) and is not intended for the use of any person or entity that is not a ldquomajor USinstitutional investorrdquo US persons who wish to effect transactions in securities discussed herein must do so through BNP Paribas Securities Corp a US-registered broker dealer and member of FINRA SIPC NFA NYSE and other principal exchanges

Certain countries within the European Economic Area This document may only be distributed in the United Kingdom to eligible counterparties andprofessional clients and is not intended for and should not be circulated to retail clients (as such terms are defined in the Markets in Financial InstrumentsDirective 200439EC (ldquoMiFIDrdquo)) This document will have been approved for publication and distribution in the United Kingdom by BNP Paribas LondonBranch a branch of BNP Paribas SA whose head office is in Paris France BNP Paribas SA is incorporated in France with limited liability with its registeredoffice at 16 boulevard des Italiens 75009 Paris BNP Paribas London Branch (registered office 10 Harewood Avenue London NW1 6AA tel [44 20] 7595 2000 fax [44 20] 7595 2555) is lead supervised by the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Autoriteacute de Controcircle Prudentiel et de Reacutesolution (ACPR) BNP ParibasLondon Branch is authorised by the ACPR and the Prudential Regulation Authority (PRA) and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authorityand PRA Details about the extent of our authorisation and regulation by the PRA and regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority are available from us onrequest This report has been approved for publication in France by BNP Paribas a credit institution licensed as an investment services provider by the ACPRwhose head office is 16 Boulevard des Italiens 75009 Paris France This report is being distributed in Germany either by BNP Paribas London Branch or byBNP Paribas Niederlassung Frankfurt am Main regulated by the Bundesanstalt fuumlr Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin)

Other Jurisdictions The distribution of this report in other jurisdictions or to residents of other jurisdictions may also be restricted by law and persons intowhose possession this report comes should inform themselves about and observe any such restrictions By accepting this report you agree to be bound by

the foregoing instructions This report is not directed to or intended for distribution to or use by any person or entity that is a citizen or resident of orlocated in any locality state country or other jurisdiction where such distribution publication availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation

All research reports are disseminated and available to all clients simultaneously through our internal client websites For all research available on aparticular stock please contact the relevant BNP Paribas research team or the author(s) of this report

Additional DisclosuresTarget price history stock price charts valuation and risk details and equity rating histories applicable to each company rated in this report is available inour most recently published reports available on our website httpeqresearchbnpparibascom or you can contact the analyst named on the front of thisnote or your BNP Paribas representative

All share prices are as at market close on 26 January 2015 unless otherwise stated

RECOMMENDATION STRUCTURE

Stock RatingsStock ratings are based on absolute upside or downside which we define as (target price - current price) current priceBUY (B) The upside is 10 or moreHOLD (H) The upside or downside is less than 10

REDUCE (R) The downside is 10 or moreUnless otherwise specified these recommendations are set with a 12-month horizon Thus it is possible that future price volatility may cause atemporary mismatch between upsidedownside for a stock based on market price and the formal recommendation In most cases the target price will equal the analysts assessment of the current fair value of the stock However if the analyst doesnt think the market will reassess the stock over the specified time horizon due to a lack of events or catalysts then the target price may differ from fair value In most cases therefore our recommendation is an assessment of the mismatch between current market price and our assessment of current fair value

Industry RecommendationsImproving ( ) The analyst expects the fundamental conditions of the sector to be positive over the next 12 monthsStable (previously known as Neutral) ( ) The analyst expects the fundamental conditions of the sector to be maintained over the next 12monthsDeteriorating ( ) The analyst expects the fundamental conditions of the sector to be negative over the next 12 monthsCountry (Strategy) RecommendationsOverweight (O) Over the next 12 months the analyst expects the market to score positively on two or more of the criteria used to determinemarket recommendations index returns relative to the regional benchmark index sharpe ratio relative to the regional benchmark and indexreturns relative to the market cost of equityNeutral (N) Over the next 12 months the analyst expects the market to score positively on one of the criteria used to determine marketrecommendations index returns relative to the regional benchmark index sharpe ratio relative to the regional benchmark and index returns

relative to the market cost of equityUnderweight (U) Over the next 12 months the analyst does not expect the market to score positively on any of the criteria used to determinemarket recommendations index returns relative to the regional benchmark index sharpe ratio relative to the regional benchmark and indexreturns relative to the market cost of equity




RATING DISTRIBUTION (as at 28 January 2015)

Total BNP Paribas coverage universe 687 Investment Banking Relationship ()

Buy 345 Buy 870

Hold 253 Hold 430

Reduce 89 Reduce 110

Should you require additional information concerning this report please contact the relevant BNP Paribas research team or the author(s) of this report

copy 2015 BNP Paribas Group





Top-down strategy outlook ndash Isik Okte

Investment themes

Led by the oil ldquodividendrdquo Turkey has one of the best investment stories of the last

decade among emerging market countries The question we should be asking

ourselves is how much of this story is priced into BIST100 Turkeyrsquos main equity

index currently at 912k and only 2 from its all-time high

We see the following eight positives as pillars of the Turkish equity story

1 Inflows to Turkish fixed income instruments continuing after the sovereign bondbuying programme announced by the ECB

2 Disinflationary pressures with the supply overhang in oil markets

3 Improvement in current account deficit at a time when the Fed is getting ready tostart rate hikes

4 Macro problems in Russia and Central Europe make Turkey look relativelyattractive among CEEMEA

5 CBRT rate-cut cycle under way as disinflationary pressures and growth dynamics(consumer confidence hits five-year lows business confidence hits five-monthlows) dominate

6 Fiscal discipline

7 Political uncertainty out of the way until June 2015 elections

8 Governmentrsquos Kurdish Peace Process and structural reform packages aimed atstability and growth

While most of these positives are intertwined and well-known by the investing public

Turkeyrsquos re-rating from a market standpoint is still under way Since 2014 MSCI

Turkey has gained 23 and has outperformed the MSCI EM index by 24 In 2015

year-to-date the positive divergence is even more striking MSCI Turkey is gaining

5 and is the second-best performing MSCI EM component after India With this

outperformance MSCI Turkeyrsquos 12-month forward PE discount to MSCI EM now

stands at 5 Since Lehman this discount averaged 16 on an annual basis until

2014 year-end

EXHIBIT 1 Turkey vs EM


08

09

10

11

12

13

14

Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15

`Turkey outperformanceaccelerating`







in at the moment



































50

100

150

200

250

300

350


MSCI TR MSCI EM







Risk factors
























Trading strategy






2


























(x) (x) (x) (x)

Today 112 160 116 102

1Y average 99 150 108 91

3Y average 98 131 104 84

5Y average 96 129 105 84


4

6

8

10

12

14

16











() () ()

Today (30) (5) 8

1Y average (34) (8) 10

3Y average (27) (6) 18

5Y average (25) (9) 15










EXHIBIT 8 Spreads

Spread

Current 220

1Y 100

3Y 172

5Y 194


(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

40

50



(1)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14







Macro forecasts



2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2013 2014E 2015E

Real sector

Real GDP (y-y ) 21 41 31 30 41 31 30

Nominal GDP (TRY b) 14168 15615 17527 19086

15615 17535 19219

Nominal GDP (USD b) 7878 8209 8001 7939 8209 8025 8173

CPI (y-y ) 62 74 82 62 74 87 67

CPI (avg ) 89 75 89 58 75 89 64


EURTRY (eop) 235 293 283 275 293 276 281

EURTRY (avg) 230 256 289 271 256 289 277

USDTRY (eop) 178 213 233 250 213 226 244

USDTRY (avg) 178 193 219 240 193 218 235

EURUSD (eop) 132 138 122 110 138 122 115

EURUSD (avg) 129 133 132 113 133 132 118










Net public debt 170 141 122 103 141 125 115



Current account (485) (650) (444) (326) (650) (432) (338)

of GDP (62) (79) (56) (41) (79) (54) (41)




































6

8

10

12

14

O c t - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

J a n - 1 5


benchmark bond rate


361

350

366

358 358

30

32

34

36

38

40

2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E

(NIM)





























385

369

437443

399390

385 386

300

350

400

450

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14E 1Q15E 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E

()

118

106

108

110

112

114

116

118

120

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

()

(34)

(28)

(10)

(21)(22)

(18)

(40)

(35)

(30)

(25)

(20)

(15)

(10)

(5)

0


(bp)

(719)

(610)

(174)

(486)

(349)

(288)

(800)

(700)

(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

0


(TRY m)


























143

139

126

0

5

10

1520

25

30

35

40

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

() Loan growth y-y



1471 1497 1495 1528

1356 1387

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18


CAR ()

29

25

26

27

28

29

30

J u n - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

A u g - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

()

9789 92

120 119

100

85 88 91

106

0

1

2

3

4

5

(1)

2

5

8

11

14

2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3

O c t - 1 4


Specific CoR (RHS)









GDP Growth 35-4 37 35 40 30

CPI 70 61 65-7 6 65

Policy Rate 8

Benchmark 8




USDTRY 240 233

Sector outlook ()

Assets 12-14

Loans 14-16

Deposits 12-14

2015 Targets

Balance sheet ()

Assets 13-15 13-15

Loans 15-17 15 16-17 16-18 15(fx adj)

TL 15-17 15 16-18

FX 11-13 8 14-16

Deposit 15-17 13 16-17 13-15

TL 16-18 11

FX 9-11 8

Loansassets 72


PampL ()

NII 13-15


Opex g 10 13 4-5 (one-off adj 11-12) 11-13

KPIs ()


ROE 13-14 20-22 16-17 (flattish)

ROA 16 14-16 24-26 25

EPS mid teen

NPL ratio 2 +20-30bps 32-34 0




Leverage (x) 88 7

LDR lt100

CAR 14 gt15 16 18

Dividend payout 20





























































26115 TRYUSD 23500

Mcap (USD m) 16000 19123 13883 9822 8750 6277 674 1372

Target Mcap (USD m) 14962 18748 15089 10525 10340 6809 1034 1698

Price (TRY) 940 1070 725 531 1645 590 176 215

Number of shares 4000 4200 4500 4347 1250 2500 900 1500

Mcap 37600 44940 32625 23083 20563 14750 1584 3225

Daily Return () 44 09 13 10 19 19 12 05

W-W Return () 568 70 77 56 100 41 29 29

Y-Y Return () 568 693 704 565 365 590 267 449

Float () 42 50 31 18 49 25 19 40




V a l u a t i o n

Target price (TRY) 879 1049 788 569 1944 640 270 266

Upside () (6) (2) 9 7 18 8 53 24



2013 PBV -solo 176 199 138 133 145 117 106 171

2014E PBV -solo 150 187 115 120 125 104 091 145

2015E PBV-solo 135 167 104 108 109 094 079 127

2013 PE -solo 1278 1495 1031 721 747 930 656 989

2014E PE-solo 1221 1351 966 1227 866 964 600 871

2015E PE-solo 1175 1258 920 1119 820 927 533 833

2013 Book 21339 22585 23579 17309 14146 12616 1497 1885

2014E Book 25065 24020 28467 19237 16493 14141 1739 2228

2015E Book 27849 26832 31314 21334 18951 15667 2014 2538


2013 Net profit 2942 3006 3163 3203 2751 1586 241 326

2014E Net profit 3080 3328 3378 1881 2373 1530 264 370

2015E Net profit 3199 3571 3547 2062 2508 1591 297 387

2013 Reported NIM () 38 37 37 37 42 42 45 44

2014E Reported NIM () 36 37 37 37 36 34 37 41

2015E Reported NIM () 35 36 36 36 35 33 36 42

2013 ROA () 17 17 16 24 23 13 17 28

2014E ROA () 16 16 15 12 16 11 14 27

2015E ROA () 15 15 14 11 15 10 13 24

2013 ROE () 138 137 137 187 211 130 181 181

2014E ROE () 133 139 134 104 156 115 164 181

2015E ROE () 122 141 125 102 142 107 159 165

F i n a n c i a l s

Loans 123813 130953 150855 112621 96111 97637 14198 10542

Securities 48544 42857 39395 23439 27728 22963 1339 3161

Deposits 113112 113886 130461 100012 101462 89197 15399 0

Sh Eq 23897 25106 26536 18408 15648 13682 1660 2149

Assets 202044 214891 230439 168713 149809 147266 21721 14671

Net profit 2863 2907 3193 1734 2505 1495 273 369










Country

Turkey 75263 74008 (2) 155 135 121 849 1123 1001 179 116 128 (289) 121 (72) 121

Argentina 2991 2987 (0) 104 297 264 350 906 824 460 280 339 (177) 100 561 100

Brazil 151760 187370 23 170 155 138 745 846 755 250 182 193 (208) 120 51 120

Chile 28703 35208 23 305 211 193 1274 1035 1043 254 215 193 (44) (07) 227 (07)

Colombia 22279 25643 15 225 158 147 1488 1323 1140 164 133 134 (02) 161 326 161

Peru 15439 18485 20 242 252 220 676 545 455 377 507 517 566 199 486 206

Mexico 33693 36333 8 237 230 216 1510 1653 1450 171 140 153 (100) 140 (01) 140

Czech Republic 7492 7733 3 164 186 183 1221 1462 1439 151 116 128 (200) 16 08 16

Hungary 3866 4661 21 073 077 072 1994 1110 850 46 54 87 221 305 499 305

Poland 43448 48297 11 177 179 171 1495 1531 1467 140 110 119 (118) 44 14 44

Russia 19864 30402 53 141 062 056 572 424 478 286 117 124 (608) (113) (163) (113)

Israel 9954 11610 17 069 070 066 908 804 770 96 83 88 54 44 91 44

South Africa 56300 55768 (1) 188 213 194 981 1313 1149 180 165 177 (126) 142 218 142

Egypt 6706 6444 (4) 187 353 301 644 1419 1123 321 262 289 (46) 263 169 263

Morocco 7624 7383 (3) 229 210 195 1585 1669 1508 159 131 134 (47) 107 60 107

China 1123290 1231844 10 120 084 074 692 652 613 208 153 128 85 64 76 64

Indonesia 83000 85728 3 290 284 243 1055 1414 1241 301 213 211 (176) 140 97 140

India 39793 39991 0 140 152 136 684 1359 1088 213 138 132 (126) 249 04 249

Malaysia 55496 62904 13 187 143 133 1237 1191 1087 167 125 127 (143) 96 04 96

Philippines 23681 23416 (1) 210 228 207 1370 1826 1609 166 128 135 (143) 135 (105) 135

Thailand 75330 74258 (1) 184 196 175 1125 1320 1201 173 157 154 23 99 73 99

Turkey 75263 74008 (2) 155 135 121 849 1123 1001 179 116 128 (289) 121 (72) 121

Turkey (TEB BNPP ) 75263 69350 (8) 155 136 122 849 1101 1039 148 119 125 (232) 67 (60) 60



EM EMEA 220564 234695 6 151 144 132 857 1087 1021 197 123 135 (353) 64 nm nm

EM Asia 1400589 1518141 8 130 094 084 742 726 678 208 153 131 60 71 nm nm

EM LatAm 251873 303039 20 195 172 155 886 924 825 240 189 197 (129) 120 nm nm

EM 1885970 2070471 10 139 105 093 775 779 724 209 152 136 (17) 76 nm nm












lsquo15E



Banks 14 104 110 104 - - - 16 14 12 12 16 12 - - - 163 141 133

Large Banks 6 104 111 105 - - - 16 14 12 12 16 12 - - - 157 130 123

AKBNK 940 879 (6) HOLD 128 122 118 - - - 18 15 14 15 12 12 - - - 138 133 122

GARAN 1070 1049 (2) HOLD 150 135 126 - - - 20 19 17 13 09 10 - - - 137 139 141

HALKB 1645 1944 18 BUY 75 87 82 - - - 15 12 11 22 13 13 - - - 211 156 142

ISCTR 725 788 9 BUY 103 97 92 - - - 14 11 10 20 17 19 - - - 137 134 125

VAKBN 590 640 8 BUY 93 96 93 - - - 12 10 09 07 07 05 - - - 130 115 107

YKBNK 531 569 7 BUY 72 123 112 - - - 13 12 11 13 17 09 - - - 187 104 102


ALBRK 176 270 53 BUY 66 60 53 - - - 11 09 08 00 20 08 - - - 181 164 159

TSKB 215 266 24 BUY 99 87 83 - - - 17 14 13 19 20 23 - - - 181 181 165





















175165 162

152139 136

127 127 124

245228 223

206

183 177166 165 160

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3

3 Q 1 4

2 0 1 4 E

2 0 1 5 E


658628 618

653677 697

719 721 743

921

865

838

874

895909

938 941

959

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3Q14 2014E 2015E
































Turkcell 40 285 358

Vodafone 35 250 250

Avea 30 214 214





premium services

204 253 309 353 384 405 429 435 462

796 747 691 647 616 595 571 565 538

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3Q14 2014E 2015E


809 807 783 770688 656 618 586

13 23 44 73141 190 240

285

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

7080

90

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E








2014E 2015E 2016E 2014E 2015E 2016E

(x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x)

Mobile operators


MTS MTSS RM 35 34 33 65 79 61

MTN MTN SJ 60 59 55 137 134 119

Vodacom VOD SJ 77 78 72 143 132 144

Partner PTNR IT 42 46 47 111 160 107

Cellcom CEL IT 41 48 47 60 110 78


Average 47 49 48 106 118 101





Orange ORA FP 60 60 60 175 163 155



OTE HTO GA 44 45 45 147 128 115

Average 61 60 59 -25 162 145





Bezeq BEZQ IT 52 61 61 80 107 109

Average 47 50 50 112 120 110











TTKOM 768 790 3 HOLD 206 126 122 68 64 61 50 41 36 90 34 48 26 24 22 221 359 315


TCELL 1450 1760 21 BUY 137 123 127 63 59 66 21 25 24 00 148 61 20 19 21 168 187 193



































60

65

70

75

80

85

J a n - 1 0

A p r - 1 0

J u l - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

J a n - 1 1

A p r - 1 1

J u l - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

J a n - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

J u l - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

J a n - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

(index)







2014E 2015E 2016E 2014E 2015E 2016E


Magnit MM IN 16486 100 102 83 164 172 136










Kroger Co KR US 33550 89 78 74 231 199 185





Tesco PLC TSCO LN 28166 61 107 104 69 206 189



BIMAS BIMAS TI 6910 224 177 149 341 262 220






































neutral






BIMAS 4970 5700 15 BUY 365 337 257 243 217 170 151 129 105 15 19 21 12 10 08 460 414 451

BIZIM 1875 1970 5 HOLD 188 339 286 147 144 132 55 51 46 17 17 14 03 03 03 310 157 171

MGROS 2375 2410 1 HOLD na 367 271 160 139 116 51 45 38 00 00 00 09 07 06 (443) 130 152

Food amp Bev 12 na 285 218 na 156 127 24 23 21 16 12 11 27 24 20 24 82 101

Beverages 17 na 345 223 na 151 124 20 19 18 16 09 07 28 25 21 08 56 82

AEFES 2185 2450 12 HOLD na 327 210 na 151 123 14 13 12 23 10 08 28 25 21 321 41 61

CCOLA 4980 6200 24 BUY na 372 242 174 152 126 49 45 39 06 08 05 28 25 21 211 126 172


Real estate












2013







7

8

9

10

11

12

13

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4



4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

90000

139000

188000

237000

286000

335000

1 Q 0 8

3 Q 0 8

1 Q 0 9

3 Q 0 9

1 Q 1 0

3 Q 1 0

1 Q 1 1

3 Q 1 1

1 Q 1 2

3 Q 1 2

1 Q 1 3

3 Q 1 3

1 Q 1 4

3 Q 1 4






























26

30

34

38

42

46

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

J a n

- 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y

- 1 3

J u

l - 1 3

S e p

- 1 3

N o v

- 1 3

J a n

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y

- 1 4

J u

l - 1 4

S e p

- 1 4

N o v

- 1 4



26

30

34

38

42

46

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n

- 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y

- 1 3

J u

l - 1 3

S e p

- 1 3

N o v

- 1 3

J a n

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y

- 1 4

J u

l - 1 4

S e p

- 1 4

N o v

- 1 4



8

9

10

11

12

13

65

70

75

80

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4



8

9

10

11

12

13

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4




























8

9

10

11

12

13

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n - 1 3

F e b - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

A u g - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4


8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16


()






2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Change 2015E Change


Total market

Domestic PC 155634 179488 146604 147128 157349 7 173084 10

Imported PC 354150 414031 409676 517527 429982 (17) 481580 12

PC 509784 593519 556280 664655 587331 (12) 654664 11

Domestic LCV 149720 158586 129399 98778 98224 (1) 113940 16

Imported LCV 101409 112334 92082 89945 82126 (9) 91981 12

LCV 251129 270920 221481 188723 180350 (4) 205921 14


Domestic LV 305354 338074 276003 245906 255573 4 287024 12

Imported LV 455559 526365 501758 607472 512108 (16) 573561 12

LV 760913 864439 777761 853378 767681 (10) 860585 12




confidence levels


--------------------- EVEBITDA --------------------- --------------------------- PE ---------------------------


(x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x)

































Automobiles 5 178 172 98 137 118 99 43 39 31 46 36 42 10 10 09 241 237 350

DOAS 1440 1500 4 BUY 141 125 102 123 108 94 28 28 24 69 69 52 07 07 06 195 224 254

FROTO 3225 3320 3 HOLD 176 247 144 167 153 98 51 45 38 27 18 25 12 12 09 303 194 287

TOASO 1745 1880 8 BUY 201 150 74 118 98 102 46 39 29 55 40 55 11 12 12 219 281 449
































(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

Europe


AF FP 27 40 neg 119 49 49 34 28 (2) 1 2 7 9 11




Easyjet - UK EZJ LN 102 (09) 142 132 120 84 79 70 10 11 11 15 16 17

Average 528 04 151 121 94 69 57 50 5 7 8 13 15 16

Americas




Average 127 25 113 149 115 87 76 71 4 6 7 15 17 19

Asia












Average 648 49 nm 125 96 100 67 61 (1) 3 4 11 15 16

All Average 28 141 123 103 84 66 59 1 4 5 12 16 16








Airlines 7 224 85 91 95 86 74 20 16 13 11 00 00 13 11 11 104 208 153

THYAO 971 1030 6 BUY 212 80 85 95 87 74 19 15 12 13 00 00 12 11 11 102 207 154

PGSUS 3185 3670 15 BUY 345 122 145 92 85 70 28 24 19 00 00 00 16 11 09 128 213 149


































further details




(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

AMERICAS




Average 31 93 91 88 60 68 57 1 1 2 17 14 16

ASIA







Average 30 95 102 93 61 58 59 5 6 6 16 17 17

EUROPE




Average 60 129 105 102 81 69 61 3 4 5 9 10 11

All average 38 180 106 111 70 67 59 34 44 50 14 14 15














EREGL 483 423 (12) HOLD 184 103 130 103 74 83 20 18 18 31 49 73 20 16 17 117 185 139

KOZAA 166 201 21 BUY 31 66 72 17 41 60 05 05 04 00 00 00 09 16 22 161 71 60

KOZAL 1800 1860 3 HOLD 57 101 109 24 37 36 16 15 13 46 53 30 15 18 17 306 150 128

KRDMD 206 238 16 BUY 160 47 44 85 57 53 13 10 08 00 00 00 16 15 13 84 245 209








Top preferences









high on Halk










































































medium to long term





























starting from 2016

















discount channel











three years















APPENDIX









NA NA NA



company



NA NA NA NA




































983345

r983345

m Menkul Değ

erler AŞ



















Buy 345 Buy 870

Hold 253 Hold 430










in at the moment



































50

100

150

200

250

300

350


MSCI TR MSCI EM







Risk factors
























Trading strategy






2


























(x) (x) (x) (x)

Today 112 160 116 102

1Y average 99 150 108 91

3Y average 98 131 104 84

5Y average 96 129 105 84


4

6

8

10

12

14

16











() () ()

Today (30) (5) 8

1Y average (34) (8) 10

3Y average (27) (6) 18

5Y average (25) (9) 15










EXHIBIT 8 Spreads

Spread

Current 220

1Y 100

3Y 172

5Y 194


(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

40

50



(1)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14







Macro forecasts



2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2013 2014E 2015E

Real sector

Real GDP (y-y ) 21 41 31 30 41 31 30

Nominal GDP (TRY b) 14168 15615 17527 19086

15615 17535 19219

Nominal GDP (USD b) 7878 8209 8001 7939 8209 8025 8173

CPI (y-y ) 62 74 82 62 74 87 67

CPI (avg ) 89 75 89 58 75 89 64


EURTRY (eop) 235 293 283 275 293 276 281

EURTRY (avg) 230 256 289 271 256 289 277

USDTRY (eop) 178 213 233 250 213 226 244

USDTRY (avg) 178 193 219 240 193 218 235

EURUSD (eop) 132 138 122 110 138 122 115

EURUSD (avg) 129 133 132 113 133 132 118










Net public debt 170 141 122 103 141 125 115



Current account (485) (650) (444) (326) (650) (432) (338)

of GDP (62) (79) (56) (41) (79) (54) (41)




































6

8

10

12

14

O c t - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

J a n - 1 5


benchmark bond rate


361

350

366

358 358

30

32

34

36

38

40

2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E

(NIM)





























385

369

437443

399390

385 386

300

350

400

450

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14E 1Q15E 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E

()

118

106

108

110

112

114

116

118

120

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

()

(34)

(28)

(10)

(21)(22)

(18)

(40)

(35)

(30)

(25)

(20)

(15)

(10)

(5)

0


(bp)

(719)

(610)

(174)

(486)

(349)

(288)

(800)

(700)

(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

0


(TRY m)


























143

139

126

0

5

10

1520

25

30

35

40

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

() Loan growth y-y



1471 1497 1495 1528

1356 1387

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18


CAR ()

29

25

26

27

28

29

30

J u n - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

A u g - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

()

9789 92

120 119

100

85 88 91

106

0

1

2

3

4

5

(1)

2

5

8

11

14

2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3

O c t - 1 4


Specific CoR (RHS)









GDP Growth 35-4 37 35 40 30

CPI 70 61 65-7 6 65

Policy Rate 8

Benchmark 8




USDTRY 240 233

Sector outlook ()

Assets 12-14

Loans 14-16

Deposits 12-14

2015 Targets

Balance sheet ()

Assets 13-15 13-15

Loans 15-17 15 16-17 16-18 15(fx adj)

TL 15-17 15 16-18

FX 11-13 8 14-16

Deposit 15-17 13 16-17 13-15

TL 16-18 11

FX 9-11 8

Loansassets 72


PampL ()

NII 13-15


Opex g 10 13 4-5 (one-off adj 11-12) 11-13

KPIs ()


ROE 13-14 20-22 16-17 (flattish)

ROA 16 14-16 24-26 25

EPS mid teen

NPL ratio 2 +20-30bps 32-34 0




Leverage (x) 88 7

LDR lt100

CAR 14 gt15 16 18

Dividend payout 20





























































26115 TRYUSD 23500

Mcap (USD m) 16000 19123 13883 9822 8750 6277 674 1372

Target Mcap (USD m) 14962 18748 15089 10525 10340 6809 1034 1698

Price (TRY) 940 1070 725 531 1645 590 176 215

Number of shares 4000 4200 4500 4347 1250 2500 900 1500

Mcap 37600 44940 32625 23083 20563 14750 1584 3225

Daily Return () 44 09 13 10 19 19 12 05

W-W Return () 568 70 77 56 100 41 29 29

Y-Y Return () 568 693 704 565 365 590 267 449

Float () 42 50 31 18 49 25 19 40




V a l u a t i o n

Target price (TRY) 879 1049 788 569 1944 640 270 266

Upside () (6) (2) 9 7 18 8 53 24



2013 PBV -solo 176 199 138 133 145 117 106 171

2014E PBV -solo 150 187 115 120 125 104 091 145

2015E PBV-solo 135 167 104 108 109 094 079 127

2013 PE -solo 1278 1495 1031 721 747 930 656 989

2014E PE-solo 1221 1351 966 1227 866 964 600 871

2015E PE-solo 1175 1258 920 1119 820 927 533 833

2013 Book 21339 22585 23579 17309 14146 12616 1497 1885

2014E Book 25065 24020 28467 19237 16493 14141 1739 2228

2015E Book 27849 26832 31314 21334 18951 15667 2014 2538


2013 Net profit 2942 3006 3163 3203 2751 1586 241 326

2014E Net profit 3080 3328 3378 1881 2373 1530 264 370

2015E Net profit 3199 3571 3547 2062 2508 1591 297 387

2013 Reported NIM () 38 37 37 37 42 42 45 44

2014E Reported NIM () 36 37 37 37 36 34 37 41

2015E Reported NIM () 35 36 36 36 35 33 36 42

2013 ROA () 17 17 16 24 23 13 17 28

2014E ROA () 16 16 15 12 16 11 14 27

2015E ROA () 15 15 14 11 15 10 13 24

2013 ROE () 138 137 137 187 211 130 181 181

2014E ROE () 133 139 134 104 156 115 164 181

2015E ROE () 122 141 125 102 142 107 159 165

F i n a n c i a l s

Loans 123813 130953 150855 112621 96111 97637 14198 10542

Securities 48544 42857 39395 23439 27728 22963 1339 3161

Deposits 113112 113886 130461 100012 101462 89197 15399 0

Sh Eq 23897 25106 26536 18408 15648 13682 1660 2149

Assets 202044 214891 230439 168713 149809 147266 21721 14671

Net profit 2863 2907 3193 1734 2505 1495 273 369










Country

Turkey 75263 74008 (2) 155 135 121 849 1123 1001 179 116 128 (289) 121 (72) 121

Argentina 2991 2987 (0) 104 297 264 350 906 824 460 280 339 (177) 100 561 100

Brazil 151760 187370 23 170 155 138 745 846 755 250 182 193 (208) 120 51 120

Chile 28703 35208 23 305 211 193 1274 1035 1043 254 215 193 (44) (07) 227 (07)

Colombia 22279 25643 15 225 158 147 1488 1323 1140 164 133 134 (02) 161 326 161

Peru 15439 18485 20 242 252 220 676 545 455 377 507 517 566 199 486 206

Mexico 33693 36333 8 237 230 216 1510 1653 1450 171 140 153 (100) 140 (01) 140

Czech Republic 7492 7733 3 164 186 183 1221 1462 1439 151 116 128 (200) 16 08 16

Hungary 3866 4661 21 073 077 072 1994 1110 850 46 54 87 221 305 499 305

Poland 43448 48297 11 177 179 171 1495 1531 1467 140 110 119 (118) 44 14 44

Russia 19864 30402 53 141 062 056 572 424 478 286 117 124 (608) (113) (163) (113)

Israel 9954 11610 17 069 070 066 908 804 770 96 83 88 54 44 91 44

South Africa 56300 55768 (1) 188 213 194 981 1313 1149 180 165 177 (126) 142 218 142

Egypt 6706 6444 (4) 187 353 301 644 1419 1123 321 262 289 (46) 263 169 263

Morocco 7624 7383 (3) 229 210 195 1585 1669 1508 159 131 134 (47) 107 60 107

China 1123290 1231844 10 120 084 074 692 652 613 208 153 128 85 64 76 64

Indonesia 83000 85728 3 290 284 243 1055 1414 1241 301 213 211 (176) 140 97 140

India 39793 39991 0 140 152 136 684 1359 1088 213 138 132 (126) 249 04 249

Malaysia 55496 62904 13 187 143 133 1237 1191 1087 167 125 127 (143) 96 04 96

Philippines 23681 23416 (1) 210 228 207 1370 1826 1609 166 128 135 (143) 135 (105) 135

Thailand 75330 74258 (1) 184 196 175 1125 1320 1201 173 157 154 23 99 73 99

Turkey 75263 74008 (2) 155 135 121 849 1123 1001 179 116 128 (289) 121 (72) 121

Turkey (TEB BNPP ) 75263 69350 (8) 155 136 122 849 1101 1039 148 119 125 (232) 67 (60) 60



EM EMEA 220564 234695 6 151 144 132 857 1087 1021 197 123 135 (353) 64 nm nm

EM Asia 1400589 1518141 8 130 094 084 742 726 678 208 153 131 60 71 nm nm

EM LatAm 251873 303039 20 195 172 155 886 924 825 240 189 197 (129) 120 nm nm

EM 1885970 2070471 10 139 105 093 775 779 724 209 152 136 (17) 76 nm nm












lsquo15E



Banks 14 104 110 104 - - - 16 14 12 12 16 12 - - - 163 141 133

Large Banks 6 104 111 105 - - - 16 14 12 12 16 12 - - - 157 130 123

AKBNK 940 879 (6) HOLD 128 122 118 - - - 18 15 14 15 12 12 - - - 138 133 122

GARAN 1070 1049 (2) HOLD 150 135 126 - - - 20 19 17 13 09 10 - - - 137 139 141

HALKB 1645 1944 18 BUY 75 87 82 - - - 15 12 11 22 13 13 - - - 211 156 142

ISCTR 725 788 9 BUY 103 97 92 - - - 14 11 10 20 17 19 - - - 137 134 125

VAKBN 590 640 8 BUY 93 96 93 - - - 12 10 09 07 07 05 - - - 130 115 107

YKBNK 531 569 7 BUY 72 123 112 - - - 13 12 11 13 17 09 - - - 187 104 102


ALBRK 176 270 53 BUY 66 60 53 - - - 11 09 08 00 20 08 - - - 181 164 159

TSKB 215 266 24 BUY 99 87 83 - - - 17 14 13 19 20 23 - - - 181 181 165





















175165 162

152139 136

127 127 124

245228 223

206

183 177166 165 160

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3

3 Q 1 4

2 0 1 4 E

2 0 1 5 E


658628 618

653677 697

719 721 743

921

865

838

874

895909

938 941

959

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3Q14 2014E 2015E
































Turkcell 40 285 358

Vodafone 35 250 250

Avea 30 214 214





premium services

204 253 309 353 384 405 429 435 462

796 747 691 647 616 595 571 565 538

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3Q14 2014E 2015E


809 807 783 770688 656 618 586

13 23 44 73141 190 240

285

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

7080

90

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E








2014E 2015E 2016E 2014E 2015E 2016E

(x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x)

Mobile operators


MTS MTSS RM 35 34 33 65 79 61

MTN MTN SJ 60 59 55 137 134 119

Vodacom VOD SJ 77 78 72 143 132 144

Partner PTNR IT 42 46 47 111 160 107

Cellcom CEL IT 41 48 47 60 110 78


Average 47 49 48 106 118 101





Orange ORA FP 60 60 60 175 163 155



OTE HTO GA 44 45 45 147 128 115

Average 61 60 59 -25 162 145





Bezeq BEZQ IT 52 61 61 80 107 109

Average 47 50 50 112 120 110











TTKOM 768 790 3 HOLD 206 126 122 68 64 61 50 41 36 90 34 48 26 24 22 221 359 315


TCELL 1450 1760 21 BUY 137 123 127 63 59 66 21 25 24 00 148 61 20 19 21 168 187 193



































60

65

70

75

80

85

J a n - 1 0

A p r - 1 0

J u l - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

J a n - 1 1

A p r - 1 1

J u l - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

J a n - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

J u l - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

J a n - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

(index)







2014E 2015E 2016E 2014E 2015E 2016E


Magnit MM IN 16486 100 102 83 164 172 136










Kroger Co KR US 33550 89 78 74 231 199 185





Tesco PLC TSCO LN 28166 61 107 104 69 206 189



BIMAS BIMAS TI 6910 224 177 149 341 262 220






































neutral






BIMAS 4970 5700 15 BUY 365 337 257 243 217 170 151 129 105 15 19 21 12 10 08 460 414 451

BIZIM 1875 1970 5 HOLD 188 339 286 147 144 132 55 51 46 17 17 14 03 03 03 310 157 171

MGROS 2375 2410 1 HOLD na 367 271 160 139 116 51 45 38 00 00 00 09 07 06 (443) 130 152

Food amp Bev 12 na 285 218 na 156 127 24 23 21 16 12 11 27 24 20 24 82 101

Beverages 17 na 345 223 na 151 124 20 19 18 16 09 07 28 25 21 08 56 82

AEFES 2185 2450 12 HOLD na 327 210 na 151 123 14 13 12 23 10 08 28 25 21 321 41 61

CCOLA 4980 6200 24 BUY na 372 242 174 152 126 49 45 39 06 08 05 28 25 21 211 126 172


Real estate












2013







7

8

9

10

11

12

13

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4



4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

90000

139000

188000

237000

286000

335000

1 Q 0 8

3 Q 0 8

1 Q 0 9

3 Q 0 9

1 Q 1 0

3 Q 1 0

1 Q 1 1

3 Q 1 1

1 Q 1 2

3 Q 1 2

1 Q 1 3

3 Q 1 3

1 Q 1 4

3 Q 1 4






























26

30

34

38

42

46

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

J a n

- 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y

- 1 3

J u

l - 1 3

S e p

- 1 3

N o v

- 1 3

J a n

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y

- 1 4

J u

l - 1 4

S e p

- 1 4

N o v

- 1 4



26

30

34

38

42

46

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n

- 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y

- 1 3

J u

l - 1 3

S e p

- 1 3

N o v

- 1 3

J a n

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y

- 1 4

J u

l - 1 4

S e p

- 1 4

N o v

- 1 4



8

9

10

11

12

13

65

70

75

80

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4



8

9

10

11

12

13

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4




























8

9

10

11

12

13

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n - 1 3

F e b - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

A u g - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4


8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16


()






2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Change 2015E Change


Total market

Domestic PC 155634 179488 146604 147128 157349 7 173084 10

Imported PC 354150 414031 409676 517527 429982 (17) 481580 12

PC 509784 593519 556280 664655 587331 (12) 654664 11

Domestic LCV 149720 158586 129399 98778 98224 (1) 113940 16

Imported LCV 101409 112334 92082 89945 82126 (9) 91981 12

LCV 251129 270920 221481 188723 180350 (4) 205921 14


Domestic LV 305354 338074 276003 245906 255573 4 287024 12

Imported LV 455559 526365 501758 607472 512108 (16) 573561 12

LV 760913 864439 777761 853378 767681 (10) 860585 12




confidence levels


--------------------- EVEBITDA --------------------- --------------------------- PE ---------------------------


(x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x)

































Automobiles 5 178 172 98 137 118 99 43 39 31 46 36 42 10 10 09 241 237 350

DOAS 1440 1500 4 BUY 141 125 102 123 108 94 28 28 24 69 69 52 07 07 06 195 224 254

FROTO 3225 3320 3 HOLD 176 247 144 167 153 98 51 45 38 27 18 25 12 12 09 303 194 287

TOASO 1745 1880 8 BUY 201 150 74 118 98 102 46 39 29 55 40 55 11 12 12 219 281 449
































(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

Europe


AF FP 27 40 neg 119 49 49 34 28 (2) 1 2 7 9 11




Easyjet - UK EZJ LN 102 (09) 142 132 120 84 79 70 10 11 11 15 16 17

Average 528 04 151 121 94 69 57 50 5 7 8 13 15 16

Americas




Average 127 25 113 149 115 87 76 71 4 6 7 15 17 19

Asia












Average 648 49 nm 125 96 100 67 61 (1) 3 4 11 15 16

All Average 28 141 123 103 84 66 59 1 4 5 12 16 16








Airlines 7 224 85 91 95 86 74 20 16 13 11 00 00 13 11 11 104 208 153

THYAO 971 1030 6 BUY 212 80 85 95 87 74 19 15 12 13 00 00 12 11 11 102 207 154

PGSUS 3185 3670 15 BUY 345 122 145 92 85 70 28 24 19 00 00 00 16 11 09 128 213 149


































further details




(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

AMERICAS




Average 31 93 91 88 60 68 57 1 1 2 17 14 16

ASIA







Average 30 95 102 93 61 58 59 5 6 6 16 17 17

EUROPE




Average 60 129 105 102 81 69 61 3 4 5 9 10 11

All average 38 180 106 111 70 67 59 34 44 50 14 14 15














EREGL 483 423 (12) HOLD 184 103 130 103 74 83 20 18 18 31 49 73 20 16 17 117 185 139

KOZAA 166 201 21 BUY 31 66 72 17 41 60 05 05 04 00 00 00 09 16 22 161 71 60

KOZAL 1800 1860 3 HOLD 57 101 109 24 37 36 16 15 13 46 53 30 15 18 17 306 150 128

KRDMD 206 238 16 BUY 160 47 44 85 57 53 13 10 08 00 00 00 16 15 13 84 245 209








Top preferences









high on Halk










































































medium to long term





























starting from 2016

















discount channel











three years















APPENDIX









NA NA NA



company



NA NA NA NA




































983345

r983345

m Menkul Değ

erler AŞ



















Buy 345 Buy 870

Hold 253 Hold 430








Risk factors
























Trading strategy






2


























(x) (x) (x) (x)

Today 112 160 116 102

1Y average 99 150 108 91

3Y average 98 131 104 84

5Y average 96 129 105 84


4

6

8

10

12

14

16











() () ()

Today (30) (5) 8

1Y average (34) (8) 10

3Y average (27) (6) 18

5Y average (25) (9) 15










EXHIBIT 8 Spreads

Spread

Current 220

1Y 100

3Y 172

5Y 194


(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

40

50



(1)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14







Macro forecasts



2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2013 2014E 2015E

Real sector

Real GDP (y-y ) 21 41 31 30 41 31 30

Nominal GDP (TRY b) 14168 15615 17527 19086

15615 17535 19219

Nominal GDP (USD b) 7878 8209 8001 7939 8209 8025 8173

CPI (y-y ) 62 74 82 62 74 87 67

CPI (avg ) 89 75 89 58 75 89 64


EURTRY (eop) 235 293 283 275 293 276 281

EURTRY (avg) 230 256 289 271 256 289 277

USDTRY (eop) 178 213 233 250 213 226 244

USDTRY (avg) 178 193 219 240 193 218 235

EURUSD (eop) 132 138 122 110 138 122 115

EURUSD (avg) 129 133 132 113 133 132 118










Net public debt 170 141 122 103 141 125 115



Current account (485) (650) (444) (326) (650) (432) (338)

of GDP (62) (79) (56) (41) (79) (54) (41)




































6

8

10

12

14

O c t - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

J a n - 1 5


benchmark bond rate


361

350

366

358 358

30

32

34

36

38

40

2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E

(NIM)





























385

369

437443

399390

385 386

300

350

400

450

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14E 1Q15E 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E

()

118

106

108

110

112

114

116

118

120

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

()

(34)

(28)

(10)

(21)(22)

(18)

(40)

(35)

(30)

(25)

(20)

(15)

(10)

(5)

0


(bp)

(719)

(610)

(174)

(486)

(349)

(288)

(800)

(700)

(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

0


(TRY m)


























143

139

126

0

5

10

1520

25

30

35

40

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

() Loan growth y-y



1471 1497 1495 1528

1356 1387

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18


CAR ()

29

25

26

27

28

29

30

J u n - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

A u g - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

()

9789 92

120 119

100

85 88 91

106

0

1

2

3

4

5

(1)

2

5

8

11

14

2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3

O c t - 1 4


Specific CoR (RHS)









GDP Growth 35-4 37 35 40 30

CPI 70 61 65-7 6 65

Policy Rate 8

Benchmark 8




USDTRY 240 233

Sector outlook ()

Assets 12-14

Loans 14-16

Deposits 12-14

2015 Targets

Balance sheet ()

Assets 13-15 13-15

Loans 15-17 15 16-17 16-18 15(fx adj)

TL 15-17 15 16-18

FX 11-13 8 14-16

Deposit 15-17 13 16-17 13-15

TL 16-18 11

FX 9-11 8

Loansassets 72


PampL ()

NII 13-15


Opex g 10 13 4-5 (one-off adj 11-12) 11-13

KPIs ()


ROE 13-14 20-22 16-17 (flattish)

ROA 16 14-16 24-26 25

EPS mid teen

NPL ratio 2 +20-30bps 32-34 0




Leverage (x) 88 7

LDR lt100

CAR 14 gt15 16 18

Dividend payout 20





























































26115 TRYUSD 23500

Mcap (USD m) 16000 19123 13883 9822 8750 6277 674 1372

Target Mcap (USD m) 14962 18748 15089 10525 10340 6809 1034 1698

Price (TRY) 940 1070 725 531 1645 590 176 215

Number of shares 4000 4200 4500 4347 1250 2500 900 1500

Mcap 37600 44940 32625 23083 20563 14750 1584 3225

Daily Return () 44 09 13 10 19 19 12 05

W-W Return () 568 70 77 56 100 41 29 29

Y-Y Return () 568 693 704 565 365 590 267 449

Float () 42 50 31 18 49 25 19 40




V a l u a t i o n

Target price (TRY) 879 1049 788 569 1944 640 270 266

Upside () (6) (2) 9 7 18 8 53 24



2013 PBV -solo 176 199 138 133 145 117 106 171

2014E PBV -solo 150 187 115 120 125 104 091 145

2015E PBV-solo 135 167 104 108 109 094 079 127

2013 PE -solo 1278 1495 1031 721 747 930 656 989

2014E PE-solo 1221 1351 966 1227 866 964 600 871

2015E PE-solo 1175 1258 920 1119 820 927 533 833

2013 Book 21339 22585 23579 17309 14146 12616 1497 1885

2014E Book 25065 24020 28467 19237 16493 14141 1739 2228

2015E Book 27849 26832 31314 21334 18951 15667 2014 2538


2013 Net profit 2942 3006 3163 3203 2751 1586 241 326

2014E Net profit 3080 3328 3378 1881 2373 1530 264 370

2015E Net profit 3199 3571 3547 2062 2508 1591 297 387

2013 Reported NIM () 38 37 37 37 42 42 45 44

2014E Reported NIM () 36 37 37 37 36 34 37 41

2015E Reported NIM () 35 36 36 36 35 33 36 42

2013 ROA () 17 17 16 24 23 13 17 28

2014E ROA () 16 16 15 12 16 11 14 27

2015E ROA () 15 15 14 11 15 10 13 24

2013 ROE () 138 137 137 187 211 130 181 181

2014E ROE () 133 139 134 104 156 115 164 181

2015E ROE () 122 141 125 102 142 107 159 165

F i n a n c i a l s

Loans 123813 130953 150855 112621 96111 97637 14198 10542

Securities 48544 42857 39395 23439 27728 22963 1339 3161

Deposits 113112 113886 130461 100012 101462 89197 15399 0

Sh Eq 23897 25106 26536 18408 15648 13682 1660 2149

Assets 202044 214891 230439 168713 149809 147266 21721 14671

Net profit 2863 2907 3193 1734 2505 1495 273 369










Country

Turkey 75263 74008 (2) 155 135 121 849 1123 1001 179 116 128 (289) 121 (72) 121

Argentina 2991 2987 (0) 104 297 264 350 906 824 460 280 339 (177) 100 561 100

Brazil 151760 187370 23 170 155 138 745 846 755 250 182 193 (208) 120 51 120

Chile 28703 35208 23 305 211 193 1274 1035 1043 254 215 193 (44) (07) 227 (07)

Colombia 22279 25643 15 225 158 147 1488 1323 1140 164 133 134 (02) 161 326 161

Peru 15439 18485 20 242 252 220 676 545 455 377 507 517 566 199 486 206

Mexico 33693 36333 8 237 230 216 1510 1653 1450 171 140 153 (100) 140 (01) 140

Czech Republic 7492 7733 3 164 186 183 1221 1462 1439 151 116 128 (200) 16 08 16

Hungary 3866 4661 21 073 077 072 1994 1110 850 46 54 87 221 305 499 305

Poland 43448 48297 11 177 179 171 1495 1531 1467 140 110 119 (118) 44 14 44

Russia 19864 30402 53 141 062 056 572 424 478 286 117 124 (608) (113) (163) (113)

Israel 9954 11610 17 069 070 066 908 804 770 96 83 88 54 44 91 44

South Africa 56300 55768 (1) 188 213 194 981 1313 1149 180 165 177 (126) 142 218 142

Egypt 6706 6444 (4) 187 353 301 644 1419 1123 321 262 289 (46) 263 169 263

Morocco 7624 7383 (3) 229 210 195 1585 1669 1508 159 131 134 (47) 107 60 107

China 1123290 1231844 10 120 084 074 692 652 613 208 153 128 85 64 76 64

Indonesia 83000 85728 3 290 284 243 1055 1414 1241 301 213 211 (176) 140 97 140

India 39793 39991 0 140 152 136 684 1359 1088 213 138 132 (126) 249 04 249

Malaysia 55496 62904 13 187 143 133 1237 1191 1087 167 125 127 (143) 96 04 96

Philippines 23681 23416 (1) 210 228 207 1370 1826 1609 166 128 135 (143) 135 (105) 135

Thailand 75330 74258 (1) 184 196 175 1125 1320 1201 173 157 154 23 99 73 99

Turkey 75263 74008 (2) 155 135 121 849 1123 1001 179 116 128 (289) 121 (72) 121

Turkey (TEB BNPP ) 75263 69350 (8) 155 136 122 849 1101 1039 148 119 125 (232) 67 (60) 60



EM EMEA 220564 234695 6 151 144 132 857 1087 1021 197 123 135 (353) 64 nm nm

EM Asia 1400589 1518141 8 130 094 084 742 726 678 208 153 131 60 71 nm nm

EM LatAm 251873 303039 20 195 172 155 886 924 825 240 189 197 (129) 120 nm nm

EM 1885970 2070471 10 139 105 093 775 779 724 209 152 136 (17) 76 nm nm












lsquo15E



Banks 14 104 110 104 - - - 16 14 12 12 16 12 - - - 163 141 133

Large Banks 6 104 111 105 - - - 16 14 12 12 16 12 - - - 157 130 123

AKBNK 940 879 (6) HOLD 128 122 118 - - - 18 15 14 15 12 12 - - - 138 133 122

GARAN 1070 1049 (2) HOLD 150 135 126 - - - 20 19 17 13 09 10 - - - 137 139 141

HALKB 1645 1944 18 BUY 75 87 82 - - - 15 12 11 22 13 13 - - - 211 156 142

ISCTR 725 788 9 BUY 103 97 92 - - - 14 11 10 20 17 19 - - - 137 134 125

VAKBN 590 640 8 BUY 93 96 93 - - - 12 10 09 07 07 05 - - - 130 115 107

YKBNK 531 569 7 BUY 72 123 112 - - - 13 12 11 13 17 09 - - - 187 104 102


ALBRK 176 270 53 BUY 66 60 53 - - - 11 09 08 00 20 08 - - - 181 164 159

TSKB 215 266 24 BUY 99 87 83 - - - 17 14 13 19 20 23 - - - 181 181 165





















175165 162

152139 136

127 127 124

245228 223

206

183 177166 165 160

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3

3 Q 1 4

2 0 1 4 E

2 0 1 5 E


658628 618

653677 697

719 721 743

921

865

838

874

895909

938 941

959

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3Q14 2014E 2015E
































Turkcell 40 285 358

Vodafone 35 250 250

Avea 30 214 214





premium services

204 253 309 353 384 405 429 435 462

796 747 691 647 616 595 571 565 538

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3Q14 2014E 2015E


809 807 783 770688 656 618 586

13 23 44 73141 190 240

285

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

7080

90

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E








2014E 2015E 2016E 2014E 2015E 2016E

(x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x)

Mobile operators


MTS MTSS RM 35 34 33 65 79 61

MTN MTN SJ 60 59 55 137 134 119

Vodacom VOD SJ 77 78 72 143 132 144

Partner PTNR IT 42 46 47 111 160 107

Cellcom CEL IT 41 48 47 60 110 78


Average 47 49 48 106 118 101





Orange ORA FP 60 60 60 175 163 155



OTE HTO GA 44 45 45 147 128 115

Average 61 60 59 -25 162 145





Bezeq BEZQ IT 52 61 61 80 107 109

Average 47 50 50 112 120 110











TTKOM 768 790 3 HOLD 206 126 122 68 64 61 50 41 36 90 34 48 26 24 22 221 359 315


TCELL 1450 1760 21 BUY 137 123 127 63 59 66 21 25 24 00 148 61 20 19 21 168 187 193



































60

65

70

75

80

85

J a n - 1 0

A p r - 1 0

J u l - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

J a n - 1 1

A p r - 1 1

J u l - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

J a n - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

J u l - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

J a n - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

(index)







2014E 2015E 2016E 2014E 2015E 2016E


Magnit MM IN 16486 100 102 83 164 172 136










Kroger Co KR US 33550 89 78 74 231 199 185





Tesco PLC TSCO LN 28166 61 107 104 69 206 189



BIMAS BIMAS TI 6910 224 177 149 341 262 220






































neutral






BIMAS 4970 5700 15 BUY 365 337 257 243 217 170 151 129 105 15 19 21 12 10 08 460 414 451

BIZIM 1875 1970 5 HOLD 188 339 286 147 144 132 55 51 46 17 17 14 03 03 03 310 157 171

MGROS 2375 2410 1 HOLD na 367 271 160 139 116 51 45 38 00 00 00 09 07 06 (443) 130 152

Food amp Bev 12 na 285 218 na 156 127 24 23 21 16 12 11 27 24 20 24 82 101

Beverages 17 na 345 223 na 151 124 20 19 18 16 09 07 28 25 21 08 56 82

AEFES 2185 2450 12 HOLD na 327 210 na 151 123 14 13 12 23 10 08 28 25 21 321 41 61

CCOLA 4980 6200 24 BUY na 372 242 174 152 126 49 45 39 06 08 05 28 25 21 211 126 172


Real estate












2013







7

8

9

10

11

12

13

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4



4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

90000

139000

188000

237000

286000

335000

1 Q 0 8

3 Q 0 8

1 Q 0 9

3 Q 0 9

1 Q 1 0

3 Q 1 0

1 Q 1 1

3 Q 1 1

1 Q 1 2

3 Q 1 2

1 Q 1 3

3 Q 1 3

1 Q 1 4

3 Q 1 4






























26

30

34

38

42

46

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

J a n

- 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y

- 1 3

J u

l - 1 3

S e p

- 1 3

N o v

- 1 3

J a n

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y

- 1 4

J u

l - 1 4

S e p

- 1 4

N o v

- 1 4



26

30

34

38

42

46

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n

- 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y

- 1 3

J u

l - 1 3

S e p

- 1 3

N o v

- 1 3

J a n

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y

- 1 4

J u

l - 1 4

S e p

- 1 4

N o v

- 1 4



8

9

10

11

12

13

65

70

75

80

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4



8

9

10

11

12

13

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4




























8

9

10

11

12

13

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n - 1 3

F e b - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

A u g - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4


8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16


()






2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Change 2015E Change


Total market

Domestic PC 155634 179488 146604 147128 157349 7 173084 10

Imported PC 354150 414031 409676 517527 429982 (17) 481580 12

PC 509784 593519 556280 664655 587331 (12) 654664 11

Domestic LCV 149720 158586 129399 98778 98224 (1) 113940 16

Imported LCV 101409 112334 92082 89945 82126 (9) 91981 12

LCV 251129 270920 221481 188723 180350 (4) 205921 14


Domestic LV 305354 338074 276003 245906 255573 4 287024 12

Imported LV 455559 526365 501758 607472 512108 (16) 573561 12

LV 760913 864439 777761 853378 767681 (10) 860585 12




confidence levels


--------------------- EVEBITDA --------------------- --------------------------- PE ---------------------------


(x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x)

































Automobiles 5 178 172 98 137 118 99 43 39 31 46 36 42 10 10 09 241 237 350

DOAS 1440 1500 4 BUY 141 125 102 123 108 94 28 28 24 69 69 52 07 07 06 195 224 254

FROTO 3225 3320 3 HOLD 176 247 144 167 153 98 51 45 38 27 18 25 12 12 09 303 194 287

TOASO 1745 1880 8 BUY 201 150 74 118 98 102 46 39 29 55 40 55 11 12 12 219 281 449
































(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

Europe


AF FP 27 40 neg 119 49 49 34 28 (2) 1 2 7 9 11




Easyjet - UK EZJ LN 102 (09) 142 132 120 84 79 70 10 11 11 15 16 17

Average 528 04 151 121 94 69 57 50 5 7 8 13 15 16

Americas




Average 127 25 113 149 115 87 76 71 4 6 7 15 17 19

Asia












Average 648 49 nm 125 96 100 67 61 (1) 3 4 11 15 16

All Average 28 141 123 103 84 66 59 1 4 5 12 16 16








Airlines 7 224 85 91 95 86 74 20 16 13 11 00 00 13 11 11 104 208 153

THYAO 971 1030 6 BUY 212 80 85 95 87 74 19 15 12 13 00 00 12 11 11 102 207 154

PGSUS 3185 3670 15 BUY 345 122 145 92 85 70 28 24 19 00 00 00 16 11 09 128 213 149


































further details




(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

AMERICAS




Average 31 93 91 88 60 68 57 1 1 2 17 14 16

ASIA







Average 30 95 102 93 61 58 59 5 6 6 16 17 17

EUROPE




Average 60 129 105 102 81 69 61 3 4 5 9 10 11

All average 38 180 106 111 70 67 59 34 44 50 14 14 15














EREGL 483 423 (12) HOLD 184 103 130 103 74 83 20 18 18 31 49 73 20 16 17 117 185 139

KOZAA 166 201 21 BUY 31 66 72 17 41 60 05 05 04 00 00 00 09 16 22 161 71 60

KOZAL 1800 1860 3 HOLD 57 101 109 24 37 36 16 15 13 46 53 30 15 18 17 306 150 128

KRDMD 206 238 16 BUY 160 47 44 85 57 53 13 10 08 00 00 00 16 15 13 84 245 209








Top preferences









high on Halk










































































medium to long term





























starting from 2016

















discount channel











three years















APPENDIX









NA NA NA



company



NA NA NA NA




































983345

r983345

m Menkul Değ

erler AŞ



















Buy 345 Buy 870

Hold 253 Hold 430




























(x) (x) (x) (x)

Today 112 160 116 102

1Y average 99 150 108 91

3Y average 98 131 104 84

5Y average 96 129 105 84


4

6

8

10

12

14

16











() () ()

Today (30) (5) 8

1Y average (34) (8) 10

3Y average (27) (6) 18

5Y average (25) (9) 15










EXHIBIT 8 Spreads

Spread

Current 220

1Y 100

3Y 172

5Y 194


(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

40

50



(1)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14







Macro forecasts



2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2013 2014E 2015E

Real sector

Real GDP (y-y ) 21 41 31 30 41 31 30

Nominal GDP (TRY b) 14168 15615 17527 19086

15615 17535 19219

Nominal GDP (USD b) 7878 8209 8001 7939 8209 8025 8173

CPI (y-y ) 62 74 82 62 74 87 67

CPI (avg ) 89 75 89 58 75 89 64


EURTRY (eop) 235 293 283 275 293 276 281

EURTRY (avg) 230 256 289 271 256 289 277

USDTRY (eop) 178 213 233 250 213 226 244

USDTRY (avg) 178 193 219 240 193 218 235

EURUSD (eop) 132 138 122 110 138 122 115

EURUSD (avg) 129 133 132 113 133 132 118










Net public debt 170 141 122 103 141 125 115



Current account (485) (650) (444) (326) (650) (432) (338)

of GDP (62) (79) (56) (41) (79) (54) (41)




































6

8

10

12

14

O c t - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

J a n - 1 5


benchmark bond rate


361

350

366

358 358

30

32

34

36

38

40

2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E

(NIM)





























385

369

437443

399390

385 386

300

350

400

450

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14E 1Q15E 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E

()

118

106

108

110

112

114

116

118

120

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

()

(34)

(28)

(10)

(21)(22)

(18)

(40)

(35)

(30)

(25)

(20)

(15)

(10)

(5)

0


(bp)

(719)

(610)

(174)

(486)

(349)

(288)

(800)

(700)

(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

0


(TRY m)


























143

139

126

0

5

10

1520

25

30

35

40

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

() Loan growth y-y



1471 1497 1495 1528

1356 1387

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18


CAR ()

29

25

26

27

28

29

30

J u n - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

A u g - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

()

9789 92

120 119

100

85 88 91

106

0

1

2

3

4

5

(1)

2

5

8

11

14

2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3

O c t - 1 4


Specific CoR (RHS)









GDP Growth 35-4 37 35 40 30

CPI 70 61 65-7 6 65

Policy Rate 8

Benchmark 8




USDTRY 240 233

Sector outlook ()

Assets 12-14

Loans 14-16

Deposits 12-14

2015 Targets

Balance sheet ()

Assets 13-15 13-15

Loans 15-17 15 16-17 16-18 15(fx adj)

TL 15-17 15 16-18

FX 11-13 8 14-16

Deposit 15-17 13 16-17 13-15

TL 16-18 11

FX 9-11 8

Loansassets 72


PampL ()

NII 13-15


Opex g 10 13 4-5 (one-off adj 11-12) 11-13

KPIs ()


ROE 13-14 20-22 16-17 (flattish)

ROA 16 14-16 24-26 25

EPS mid teen

NPL ratio 2 +20-30bps 32-34 0




Leverage (x) 88 7

LDR lt100

CAR 14 gt15 16 18

Dividend payout 20





























































26115 TRYUSD 23500

Mcap (USD m) 16000 19123 13883 9822 8750 6277 674 1372

Target Mcap (USD m) 14962 18748 15089 10525 10340 6809 1034 1698

Price (TRY) 940 1070 725 531 1645 590 176 215

Number of shares 4000 4200 4500 4347 1250 2500 900 1500

Mcap 37600 44940 32625 23083 20563 14750 1584 3225

Daily Return () 44 09 13 10 19 19 12 05

W-W Return () 568 70 77 56 100 41 29 29

Y-Y Return () 568 693 704 565 365 590 267 449

Float () 42 50 31 18 49 25 19 40




V a l u a t i o n

Target price (TRY) 879 1049 788 569 1944 640 270 266

Upside () (6) (2) 9 7 18 8 53 24



2013 PBV -solo 176 199 138 133 145 117 106 171

2014E PBV -solo 150 187 115 120 125 104 091 145

2015E PBV-solo 135 167 104 108 109 094 079 127

2013 PE -solo 1278 1495 1031 721 747 930 656 989

2014E PE-solo 1221 1351 966 1227 866 964 600 871

2015E PE-solo 1175 1258 920 1119 820 927 533 833

2013 Book 21339 22585 23579 17309 14146 12616 1497 1885

2014E Book 25065 24020 28467 19237 16493 14141 1739 2228

2015E Book 27849 26832 31314 21334 18951 15667 2014 2538


2013 Net profit 2942 3006 3163 3203 2751 1586 241 326

2014E Net profit 3080 3328 3378 1881 2373 1530 264 370

2015E Net profit 3199 3571 3547 2062 2508 1591 297 387

2013 Reported NIM () 38 37 37 37 42 42 45 44

2014E Reported NIM () 36 37 37 37 36 34 37 41

2015E Reported NIM () 35 36 36 36 35 33 36 42

2013 ROA () 17 17 16 24 23 13 17 28

2014E ROA () 16 16 15 12 16 11 14 27

2015E ROA () 15 15 14 11 15 10 13 24

2013 ROE () 138 137 137 187 211 130 181 181

2014E ROE () 133 139 134 104 156 115 164 181

2015E ROE () 122 141 125 102 142 107 159 165

F i n a n c i a l s

Loans 123813 130953 150855 112621 96111 97637 14198 10542

Securities 48544 42857 39395 23439 27728 22963 1339 3161

Deposits 113112 113886 130461 100012 101462 89197 15399 0

Sh Eq 23897 25106 26536 18408 15648 13682 1660 2149

Assets 202044 214891 230439 168713 149809 147266 21721 14671

Net profit 2863 2907 3193 1734 2505 1495 273 369










Country

Turkey 75263 74008 (2) 155 135 121 849 1123 1001 179 116 128 (289) 121 (72) 121

Argentina 2991 2987 (0) 104 297 264 350 906 824 460 280 339 (177) 100 561 100

Brazil 151760 187370 23 170 155 138 745 846 755 250 182 193 (208) 120 51 120

Chile 28703 35208 23 305 211 193 1274 1035 1043 254 215 193 (44) (07) 227 (07)

Colombia 22279 25643 15 225 158 147 1488 1323 1140 164 133 134 (02) 161 326 161

Peru 15439 18485 20 242 252 220 676 545 455 377 507 517 566 199 486 206

Mexico 33693 36333 8 237 230 216 1510 1653 1450 171 140 153 (100) 140 (01) 140

Czech Republic 7492 7733 3 164 186 183 1221 1462 1439 151 116 128 (200) 16 08 16

Hungary 3866 4661 21 073 077 072 1994 1110 850 46 54 87 221 305 499 305

Poland 43448 48297 11 177 179 171 1495 1531 1467 140 110 119 (118) 44 14 44

Russia 19864 30402 53 141 062 056 572 424 478 286 117 124 (608) (113) (163) (113)

Israel 9954 11610 17 069 070 066 908 804 770 96 83 88 54 44 91 44

South Africa 56300 55768 (1) 188 213 194 981 1313 1149 180 165 177 (126) 142 218 142

Egypt 6706 6444 (4) 187 353 301 644 1419 1123 321 262 289 (46) 263 169 263

Morocco 7624 7383 (3) 229 210 195 1585 1669 1508 159 131 134 (47) 107 60 107

China 1123290 1231844 10 120 084 074 692 652 613 208 153 128 85 64 76 64

Indonesia 83000 85728 3 290 284 243 1055 1414 1241 301 213 211 (176) 140 97 140

India 39793 39991 0 140 152 136 684 1359 1088 213 138 132 (126) 249 04 249

Malaysia 55496 62904 13 187 143 133 1237 1191 1087 167 125 127 (143) 96 04 96

Philippines 23681 23416 (1) 210 228 207 1370 1826 1609 166 128 135 (143) 135 (105) 135

Thailand 75330 74258 (1) 184 196 175 1125 1320 1201 173 157 154 23 99 73 99

Turkey 75263 74008 (2) 155 135 121 849 1123 1001 179 116 128 (289) 121 (72) 121

Turkey (TEB BNPP ) 75263 69350 (8) 155 136 122 849 1101 1039 148 119 125 (232) 67 (60) 60



EM EMEA 220564 234695 6 151 144 132 857 1087 1021 197 123 135 (353) 64 nm nm

EM Asia 1400589 1518141 8 130 094 084 742 726 678 208 153 131 60 71 nm nm

EM LatAm 251873 303039 20 195 172 155 886 924 825 240 189 197 (129) 120 nm nm

EM 1885970 2070471 10 139 105 093 775 779 724 209 152 136 (17) 76 nm nm












lsquo15E



Banks 14 104 110 104 - - - 16 14 12 12 16 12 - - - 163 141 133

Large Banks 6 104 111 105 - - - 16 14 12 12 16 12 - - - 157 130 123

AKBNK 940 879 (6) HOLD 128 122 118 - - - 18 15 14 15 12 12 - - - 138 133 122

GARAN 1070 1049 (2) HOLD 150 135 126 - - - 20 19 17 13 09 10 - - - 137 139 141

HALKB 1645 1944 18 BUY 75 87 82 - - - 15 12 11 22 13 13 - - - 211 156 142

ISCTR 725 788 9 BUY 103 97 92 - - - 14 11 10 20 17 19 - - - 137 134 125

VAKBN 590 640 8 BUY 93 96 93 - - - 12 10 09 07 07 05 - - - 130 115 107

YKBNK 531 569 7 BUY 72 123 112 - - - 13 12 11 13 17 09 - - - 187 104 102


ALBRK 176 270 53 BUY 66 60 53 - - - 11 09 08 00 20 08 - - - 181 164 159

TSKB 215 266 24 BUY 99 87 83 - - - 17 14 13 19 20 23 - - - 181 181 165





















175165 162

152139 136

127 127 124

245228 223

206

183 177166 165 160

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3

3 Q 1 4

2 0 1 4 E

2 0 1 5 E


658628 618

653677 697

719 721 743

921

865

838

874

895909

938 941

959

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3Q14 2014E 2015E
































Turkcell 40 285 358

Vodafone 35 250 250

Avea 30 214 214





premium services

204 253 309 353 384 405 429 435 462

796 747 691 647 616 595 571 565 538

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3Q14 2014E 2015E


809 807 783 770688 656 618 586

13 23 44 73141 190 240

285

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

7080

90

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E








2014E 2015E 2016E 2014E 2015E 2016E

(x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x)

Mobile operators


MTS MTSS RM 35 34 33 65 79 61

MTN MTN SJ 60 59 55 137 134 119

Vodacom VOD SJ 77 78 72 143 132 144

Partner PTNR IT 42 46 47 111 160 107

Cellcom CEL IT 41 48 47 60 110 78


Average 47 49 48 106 118 101





Orange ORA FP 60 60 60 175 163 155



OTE HTO GA 44 45 45 147 128 115

Average 61 60 59 -25 162 145





Bezeq BEZQ IT 52 61 61 80 107 109

Average 47 50 50 112 120 110











TTKOM 768 790 3 HOLD 206 126 122 68 64 61 50 41 36 90 34 48 26 24 22 221 359 315


TCELL 1450 1760 21 BUY 137 123 127 63 59 66 21 25 24 00 148 61 20 19 21 168 187 193



































60

65

70

75

80

85

J a n - 1 0

A p r - 1 0

J u l - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

J a n - 1 1

A p r - 1 1

J u l - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

J a n - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

J u l - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

J a n - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

(index)







2014E 2015E 2016E 2014E 2015E 2016E


Magnit MM IN 16486 100 102 83 164 172 136










Kroger Co KR US 33550 89 78 74 231 199 185





Tesco PLC TSCO LN 28166 61 107 104 69 206 189



BIMAS BIMAS TI 6910 224 177 149 341 262 220






































neutral






BIMAS 4970 5700 15 BUY 365 337 257 243 217 170 151 129 105 15 19 21 12 10 08 460 414 451

BIZIM 1875 1970 5 HOLD 188 339 286 147 144 132 55 51 46 17 17 14 03 03 03 310 157 171

MGROS 2375 2410 1 HOLD na 367 271 160 139 116 51 45 38 00 00 00 09 07 06 (443) 130 152

Food amp Bev 12 na 285 218 na 156 127 24 23 21 16 12 11 27 24 20 24 82 101

Beverages 17 na 345 223 na 151 124 20 19 18 16 09 07 28 25 21 08 56 82

AEFES 2185 2450 12 HOLD na 327 210 na 151 123 14 13 12 23 10 08 28 25 21 321 41 61

CCOLA 4980 6200 24 BUY na 372 242 174 152 126 49 45 39 06 08 05 28 25 21 211 126 172


Real estate












2013







7

8

9

10

11

12

13

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4



4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

90000

139000

188000

237000

286000

335000

1 Q 0 8

3 Q 0 8

1 Q 0 9

3 Q 0 9

1 Q 1 0

3 Q 1 0

1 Q 1 1

3 Q 1 1

1 Q 1 2

3 Q 1 2

1 Q 1 3

3 Q 1 3

1 Q 1 4

3 Q 1 4






























26

30

34

38

42

46

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

J a n

- 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y

- 1 3

J u

l - 1 3

S e p

- 1 3

N o v

- 1 3

J a n

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y

- 1 4

J u

l - 1 4

S e p

- 1 4

N o v

- 1 4



26

30

34

38

42

46

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n

- 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y

- 1 3

J u

l - 1 3

S e p

- 1 3

N o v

- 1 3

J a n

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y

- 1 4

J u

l - 1 4

S e p

- 1 4

N o v

- 1 4



8

9

10

11

12

13

65

70

75

80

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4



8

9

10

11

12

13

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4




























8

9

10

11

12

13

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n - 1 3

F e b - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

A u g - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4


8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16


()






2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Change 2015E Change


Total market

Domestic PC 155634 179488 146604 147128 157349 7 173084 10

Imported PC 354150 414031 409676 517527 429982 (17) 481580 12

PC 509784 593519 556280 664655 587331 (12) 654664 11

Domestic LCV 149720 158586 129399 98778 98224 (1) 113940 16

Imported LCV 101409 112334 92082 89945 82126 (9) 91981 12

LCV 251129 270920 221481 188723 180350 (4) 205921 14


Domestic LV 305354 338074 276003 245906 255573 4 287024 12

Imported LV 455559 526365 501758 607472 512108 (16) 573561 12

LV 760913 864439 777761 853378 767681 (10) 860585 12




confidence levels


--------------------- EVEBITDA --------------------- --------------------------- PE ---------------------------


(x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x)

































Automobiles 5 178 172 98 137 118 99 43 39 31 46 36 42 10 10 09 241 237 350

DOAS 1440 1500 4 BUY 141 125 102 123 108 94 28 28 24 69 69 52 07 07 06 195 224 254

FROTO 3225 3320 3 HOLD 176 247 144 167 153 98 51 45 38 27 18 25 12 12 09 303 194 287

TOASO 1745 1880 8 BUY 201 150 74 118 98 102 46 39 29 55 40 55 11 12 12 219 281 449
































(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

Europe


AF FP 27 40 neg 119 49 49 34 28 (2) 1 2 7 9 11




Easyjet - UK EZJ LN 102 (09) 142 132 120 84 79 70 10 11 11 15 16 17

Average 528 04 151 121 94 69 57 50 5 7 8 13 15 16

Americas




Average 127 25 113 149 115 87 76 71 4 6 7 15 17 19

Asia












Average 648 49 nm 125 96 100 67 61 (1) 3 4 11 15 16

All Average 28 141 123 103 84 66 59 1 4 5 12 16 16








Airlines 7 224 85 91 95 86 74 20 16 13 11 00 00 13 11 11 104 208 153

THYAO 971 1030 6 BUY 212 80 85 95 87 74 19 15 12 13 00 00 12 11 11 102 207 154

PGSUS 3185 3670 15 BUY 345 122 145 92 85 70 28 24 19 00 00 00 16 11 09 128 213 149


































further details




(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

AMERICAS




Average 31 93 91 88 60 68 57 1 1 2 17 14 16

ASIA







Average 30 95 102 93 61 58 59 5 6 6 16 17 17

EUROPE




Average 60 129 105 102 81 69 61 3 4 5 9 10 11

All average 38 180 106 111 70 67 59 34 44 50 14 14 15














EREGL 483 423 (12) HOLD 184 103 130 103 74 83 20 18 18 31 49 73 20 16 17 117 185 139

KOZAA 166 201 21 BUY 31 66 72 17 41 60 05 05 04 00 00 00 09 16 22 161 71 60

KOZAL 1800 1860 3 HOLD 57 101 109 24 37 36 16 15 13 46 53 30 15 18 17 306 150 128

KRDMD 206 238 16 BUY 160 47 44 85 57 53 13 10 08 00 00 00 16 15 13 84 245 209








Top preferences









high on Halk










































































medium to long term





























starting from 2016

















discount channel











three years















APPENDIX









NA NA NA



company



NA NA NA NA




































983345

r983345

m Menkul Değ

erler AŞ



















Buy 345 Buy 870

Hold 253 Hold 430












() () ()

Today (30) (5) 8

1Y average (34) (8) 10

3Y average (27) (6) 18

5Y average (25) (9) 15










EXHIBIT 8 Spreads

Spread

Current 220

1Y 100

3Y 172

5Y 194


(50)

(40)

(30)

(20)

(10)

0

10

20

30

40

50



(1)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14







Macro forecasts



2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2013 2014E 2015E

Real sector

Real GDP (y-y ) 21 41 31 30 41 31 30

Nominal GDP (TRY b) 14168 15615 17527 19086

15615 17535 19219

Nominal GDP (USD b) 7878 8209 8001 7939 8209 8025 8173

CPI (y-y ) 62 74 82 62 74 87 67

CPI (avg ) 89 75 89 58 75 89 64


EURTRY (eop) 235 293 283 275 293 276 281

EURTRY (avg) 230 256 289 271 256 289 277

USDTRY (eop) 178 213 233 250 213 226 244

USDTRY (avg) 178 193 219 240 193 218 235

EURUSD (eop) 132 138 122 110 138 122 115

EURUSD (avg) 129 133 132 113 133 132 118










Net public debt 170 141 122 103 141 125 115



Current account (485) (650) (444) (326) (650) (432) (338)

of GDP (62) (79) (56) (41) (79) (54) (41)




































6

8

10

12

14

O c t - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

J a n - 1 5


benchmark bond rate


361

350

366

358 358

30

32

34

36

38

40

2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E

(NIM)





























385

369

437443

399390

385 386

300

350

400

450

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14E 1Q15E 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E

()

118

106

108

110

112

114

116

118

120

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

()

(34)

(28)

(10)

(21)(22)

(18)

(40)

(35)

(30)

(25)

(20)

(15)

(10)

(5)

0


(bp)

(719)

(610)

(174)

(486)

(349)

(288)

(800)

(700)

(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

0


(TRY m)


























143

139

126

0

5

10

1520

25

30

35

40

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

() Loan growth y-y



1471 1497 1495 1528

1356 1387

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18


CAR ()

29

25

26

27

28

29

30

J u n - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

A u g - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

()

9789 92

120 119

100

85 88 91

106

0

1

2

3

4

5

(1)

2

5

8

11

14

2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3

O c t - 1 4


Specific CoR (RHS)









GDP Growth 35-4 37 35 40 30

CPI 70 61 65-7 6 65

Policy Rate 8

Benchmark 8




USDTRY 240 233

Sector outlook ()

Assets 12-14

Loans 14-16

Deposits 12-14

2015 Targets

Balance sheet ()

Assets 13-15 13-15

Loans 15-17 15 16-17 16-18 15(fx adj)

TL 15-17 15 16-18

FX 11-13 8 14-16

Deposit 15-17 13 16-17 13-15

TL 16-18 11

FX 9-11 8

Loansassets 72


PampL ()

NII 13-15


Opex g 10 13 4-5 (one-off adj 11-12) 11-13

KPIs ()


ROE 13-14 20-22 16-17 (flattish)

ROA 16 14-16 24-26 25

EPS mid teen

NPL ratio 2 +20-30bps 32-34 0




Leverage (x) 88 7

LDR lt100

CAR 14 gt15 16 18

Dividend payout 20





























































26115 TRYUSD 23500

Mcap (USD m) 16000 19123 13883 9822 8750 6277 674 1372

Target Mcap (USD m) 14962 18748 15089 10525 10340 6809 1034 1698

Price (TRY) 940 1070 725 531 1645 590 176 215

Number of shares 4000 4200 4500 4347 1250 2500 900 1500

Mcap 37600 44940 32625 23083 20563 14750 1584 3225

Daily Return () 44 09 13 10 19 19 12 05

W-W Return () 568 70 77 56 100 41 29 29

Y-Y Return () 568 693 704 565 365 590 267 449

Float () 42 50 31 18 49 25 19 40




V a l u a t i o n

Target price (TRY) 879 1049 788 569 1944 640 270 266

Upside () (6) (2) 9 7 18 8 53 24



2013 PBV -solo 176 199 138 133 145 117 106 171

2014E PBV -solo 150 187 115 120 125 104 091 145

2015E PBV-solo 135 167 104 108 109 094 079 127

2013 PE -solo 1278 1495 1031 721 747 930 656 989

2014E PE-solo 1221 1351 966 1227 866 964 600 871

2015E PE-solo 1175 1258 920 1119 820 927 533 833

2013 Book 21339 22585 23579 17309 14146 12616 1497 1885

2014E Book 25065 24020 28467 19237 16493 14141 1739 2228

2015E Book 27849 26832 31314 21334 18951 15667 2014 2538


2013 Net profit 2942 3006 3163 3203 2751 1586 241 326

2014E Net profit 3080 3328 3378 1881 2373 1530 264 370

2015E Net profit 3199 3571 3547 2062 2508 1591 297 387

2013 Reported NIM () 38 37 37 37 42 42 45 44

2014E Reported NIM () 36 37 37 37 36 34 37 41

2015E Reported NIM () 35 36 36 36 35 33 36 42

2013 ROA () 17 17 16 24 23 13 17 28

2014E ROA () 16 16 15 12 16 11 14 27

2015E ROA () 15 15 14 11 15 10 13 24

2013 ROE () 138 137 137 187 211 130 181 181

2014E ROE () 133 139 134 104 156 115 164 181

2015E ROE () 122 141 125 102 142 107 159 165

F i n a n c i a l s

Loans 123813 130953 150855 112621 96111 97637 14198 10542

Securities 48544 42857 39395 23439 27728 22963 1339 3161

Deposits 113112 113886 130461 100012 101462 89197 15399 0

Sh Eq 23897 25106 26536 18408 15648 13682 1660 2149

Assets 202044 214891 230439 168713 149809 147266 21721 14671

Net profit 2863 2907 3193 1734 2505 1495 273 369










Country

Turkey 75263 74008 (2) 155 135 121 849 1123 1001 179 116 128 (289) 121 (72) 121

Argentina 2991 2987 (0) 104 297 264 350 906 824 460 280 339 (177) 100 561 100

Brazil 151760 187370 23 170 155 138 745 846 755 250 182 193 (208) 120 51 120

Chile 28703 35208 23 305 211 193 1274 1035 1043 254 215 193 (44) (07) 227 (07)

Colombia 22279 25643 15 225 158 147 1488 1323 1140 164 133 134 (02) 161 326 161

Peru 15439 18485 20 242 252 220 676 545 455 377 507 517 566 199 486 206

Mexico 33693 36333 8 237 230 216 1510 1653 1450 171 140 153 (100) 140 (01) 140

Czech Republic 7492 7733 3 164 186 183 1221 1462 1439 151 116 128 (200) 16 08 16

Hungary 3866 4661 21 073 077 072 1994 1110 850 46 54 87 221 305 499 305

Poland 43448 48297 11 177 179 171 1495 1531 1467 140 110 119 (118) 44 14 44

Russia 19864 30402 53 141 062 056 572 424 478 286 117 124 (608) (113) (163) (113)

Israel 9954 11610 17 069 070 066 908 804 770 96 83 88 54 44 91 44

South Africa 56300 55768 (1) 188 213 194 981 1313 1149 180 165 177 (126) 142 218 142

Egypt 6706 6444 (4) 187 353 301 644 1419 1123 321 262 289 (46) 263 169 263

Morocco 7624 7383 (3) 229 210 195 1585 1669 1508 159 131 134 (47) 107 60 107

China 1123290 1231844 10 120 084 074 692 652 613 208 153 128 85 64 76 64

Indonesia 83000 85728 3 290 284 243 1055 1414 1241 301 213 211 (176) 140 97 140

India 39793 39991 0 140 152 136 684 1359 1088 213 138 132 (126) 249 04 249

Malaysia 55496 62904 13 187 143 133 1237 1191 1087 167 125 127 (143) 96 04 96

Philippines 23681 23416 (1) 210 228 207 1370 1826 1609 166 128 135 (143) 135 (105) 135

Thailand 75330 74258 (1) 184 196 175 1125 1320 1201 173 157 154 23 99 73 99

Turkey 75263 74008 (2) 155 135 121 849 1123 1001 179 116 128 (289) 121 (72) 121

Turkey (TEB BNPP ) 75263 69350 (8) 155 136 122 849 1101 1039 148 119 125 (232) 67 (60) 60



EM EMEA 220564 234695 6 151 144 132 857 1087 1021 197 123 135 (353) 64 nm nm

EM Asia 1400589 1518141 8 130 094 084 742 726 678 208 153 131 60 71 nm nm

EM LatAm 251873 303039 20 195 172 155 886 924 825 240 189 197 (129) 120 nm nm

EM 1885970 2070471 10 139 105 093 775 779 724 209 152 136 (17) 76 nm nm












lsquo15E



Banks 14 104 110 104 - - - 16 14 12 12 16 12 - - - 163 141 133

Large Banks 6 104 111 105 - - - 16 14 12 12 16 12 - - - 157 130 123

AKBNK 940 879 (6) HOLD 128 122 118 - - - 18 15 14 15 12 12 - - - 138 133 122

GARAN 1070 1049 (2) HOLD 150 135 126 - - - 20 19 17 13 09 10 - - - 137 139 141

HALKB 1645 1944 18 BUY 75 87 82 - - - 15 12 11 22 13 13 - - - 211 156 142

ISCTR 725 788 9 BUY 103 97 92 - - - 14 11 10 20 17 19 - - - 137 134 125

VAKBN 590 640 8 BUY 93 96 93 - - - 12 10 09 07 07 05 - - - 130 115 107

YKBNK 531 569 7 BUY 72 123 112 - - - 13 12 11 13 17 09 - - - 187 104 102


ALBRK 176 270 53 BUY 66 60 53 - - - 11 09 08 00 20 08 - - - 181 164 159

TSKB 215 266 24 BUY 99 87 83 - - - 17 14 13 19 20 23 - - - 181 181 165





















175165 162

152139 136

127 127 124

245228 223

206

183 177166 165 160

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3

3 Q 1 4

2 0 1 4 E

2 0 1 5 E


658628 618

653677 697

719 721 743

921

865

838

874

895909

938 941

959

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3Q14 2014E 2015E
































Turkcell 40 285 358

Vodafone 35 250 250

Avea 30 214 214





premium services

204 253 309 353 384 405 429 435 462

796 747 691 647 616 595 571 565 538

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3Q14 2014E 2015E


809 807 783 770688 656 618 586

13 23 44 73141 190 240

285

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

7080

90

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E








2014E 2015E 2016E 2014E 2015E 2016E

(x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x)

Mobile operators


MTS MTSS RM 35 34 33 65 79 61

MTN MTN SJ 60 59 55 137 134 119

Vodacom VOD SJ 77 78 72 143 132 144

Partner PTNR IT 42 46 47 111 160 107

Cellcom CEL IT 41 48 47 60 110 78


Average 47 49 48 106 118 101





Orange ORA FP 60 60 60 175 163 155



OTE HTO GA 44 45 45 147 128 115

Average 61 60 59 -25 162 145





Bezeq BEZQ IT 52 61 61 80 107 109

Average 47 50 50 112 120 110











TTKOM 768 790 3 HOLD 206 126 122 68 64 61 50 41 36 90 34 48 26 24 22 221 359 315


TCELL 1450 1760 21 BUY 137 123 127 63 59 66 21 25 24 00 148 61 20 19 21 168 187 193



































60

65

70

75

80

85

J a n - 1 0

A p r - 1 0

J u l - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

J a n - 1 1

A p r - 1 1

J u l - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

J a n - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

J u l - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

J a n - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

(index)







2014E 2015E 2016E 2014E 2015E 2016E


Magnit MM IN 16486 100 102 83 164 172 136










Kroger Co KR US 33550 89 78 74 231 199 185





Tesco PLC TSCO LN 28166 61 107 104 69 206 189



BIMAS BIMAS TI 6910 224 177 149 341 262 220






































neutral






BIMAS 4970 5700 15 BUY 365 337 257 243 217 170 151 129 105 15 19 21 12 10 08 460 414 451

BIZIM 1875 1970 5 HOLD 188 339 286 147 144 132 55 51 46 17 17 14 03 03 03 310 157 171

MGROS 2375 2410 1 HOLD na 367 271 160 139 116 51 45 38 00 00 00 09 07 06 (443) 130 152

Food amp Bev 12 na 285 218 na 156 127 24 23 21 16 12 11 27 24 20 24 82 101

Beverages 17 na 345 223 na 151 124 20 19 18 16 09 07 28 25 21 08 56 82

AEFES 2185 2450 12 HOLD na 327 210 na 151 123 14 13 12 23 10 08 28 25 21 321 41 61

CCOLA 4980 6200 24 BUY na 372 242 174 152 126 49 45 39 06 08 05 28 25 21 211 126 172


Real estate












2013







7

8

9

10

11

12

13

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4



4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

90000

139000

188000

237000

286000

335000

1 Q 0 8

3 Q 0 8

1 Q 0 9

3 Q 0 9

1 Q 1 0

3 Q 1 0

1 Q 1 1

3 Q 1 1

1 Q 1 2

3 Q 1 2

1 Q 1 3

3 Q 1 3

1 Q 1 4

3 Q 1 4






























26

30

34

38

42

46

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

J a n

- 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y

- 1 3

J u

l - 1 3

S e p

- 1 3

N o v

- 1 3

J a n

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y

- 1 4

J u

l - 1 4

S e p

- 1 4

N o v

- 1 4



26

30

34

38

42

46

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n

- 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y

- 1 3

J u

l - 1 3

S e p

- 1 3

N o v

- 1 3

J a n

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y

- 1 4

J u

l - 1 4

S e p

- 1 4

N o v

- 1 4



8

9

10

11

12

13

65

70

75

80

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4



8

9

10

11

12

13

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4




























8

9

10

11

12

13

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n - 1 3

F e b - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

A u g - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4


8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16


()






2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Change 2015E Change


Total market

Domestic PC 155634 179488 146604 147128 157349 7 173084 10

Imported PC 354150 414031 409676 517527 429982 (17) 481580 12

PC 509784 593519 556280 664655 587331 (12) 654664 11

Domestic LCV 149720 158586 129399 98778 98224 (1) 113940 16

Imported LCV 101409 112334 92082 89945 82126 (9) 91981 12

LCV 251129 270920 221481 188723 180350 (4) 205921 14


Domestic LV 305354 338074 276003 245906 255573 4 287024 12

Imported LV 455559 526365 501758 607472 512108 (16) 573561 12

LV 760913 864439 777761 853378 767681 (10) 860585 12




confidence levels


--------------------- EVEBITDA --------------------- --------------------------- PE ---------------------------


(x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x)

































Automobiles 5 178 172 98 137 118 99 43 39 31 46 36 42 10 10 09 241 237 350

DOAS 1440 1500 4 BUY 141 125 102 123 108 94 28 28 24 69 69 52 07 07 06 195 224 254

FROTO 3225 3320 3 HOLD 176 247 144 167 153 98 51 45 38 27 18 25 12 12 09 303 194 287

TOASO 1745 1880 8 BUY 201 150 74 118 98 102 46 39 29 55 40 55 11 12 12 219 281 449
































(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

Europe


AF FP 27 40 neg 119 49 49 34 28 (2) 1 2 7 9 11




Easyjet - UK EZJ LN 102 (09) 142 132 120 84 79 70 10 11 11 15 16 17

Average 528 04 151 121 94 69 57 50 5 7 8 13 15 16

Americas




Average 127 25 113 149 115 87 76 71 4 6 7 15 17 19

Asia












Average 648 49 nm 125 96 100 67 61 (1) 3 4 11 15 16

All Average 28 141 123 103 84 66 59 1 4 5 12 16 16








Airlines 7 224 85 91 95 86 74 20 16 13 11 00 00 13 11 11 104 208 153

THYAO 971 1030 6 BUY 212 80 85 95 87 74 19 15 12 13 00 00 12 11 11 102 207 154

PGSUS 3185 3670 15 BUY 345 122 145 92 85 70 28 24 19 00 00 00 16 11 09 128 213 149


































further details




(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

AMERICAS




Average 31 93 91 88 60 68 57 1 1 2 17 14 16

ASIA







Average 30 95 102 93 61 58 59 5 6 6 16 17 17

EUROPE




Average 60 129 105 102 81 69 61 3 4 5 9 10 11

All average 38 180 106 111 70 67 59 34 44 50 14 14 15














EREGL 483 423 (12) HOLD 184 103 130 103 74 83 20 18 18 31 49 73 20 16 17 117 185 139

KOZAA 166 201 21 BUY 31 66 72 17 41 60 05 05 04 00 00 00 09 16 22 161 71 60

KOZAL 1800 1860 3 HOLD 57 101 109 24 37 36 16 15 13 46 53 30 15 18 17 306 150 128

KRDMD 206 238 16 BUY 160 47 44 85 57 53 13 10 08 00 00 00 16 15 13 84 245 209








Top preferences









high on Halk










































































medium to long term





























starting from 2016

















discount channel











three years















APPENDIX









NA NA NA



company



NA NA NA NA




































983345

r983345

m Menkul Değ

erler AŞ



















Buy 345 Buy 870

Hold 253 Hold 430








Macro forecasts



2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2013 2014E 2015E

Real sector

Real GDP (y-y ) 21 41 31 30 41 31 30

Nominal GDP (TRY b) 14168 15615 17527 19086

15615 17535 19219

Nominal GDP (USD b) 7878 8209 8001 7939 8209 8025 8173

CPI (y-y ) 62 74 82 62 74 87 67

CPI (avg ) 89 75 89 58 75 89 64


EURTRY (eop) 235 293 283 275 293 276 281

EURTRY (avg) 230 256 289 271 256 289 277

USDTRY (eop) 178 213 233 250 213 226 244

USDTRY (avg) 178 193 219 240 193 218 235

EURUSD (eop) 132 138 122 110 138 122 115

EURUSD (avg) 129 133 132 113 133 132 118










Net public debt 170 141 122 103 141 125 115



Current account (485) (650) (444) (326) (650) (432) (338)

of GDP (62) (79) (56) (41) (79) (54) (41)




































6

8

10

12

14

O c t - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

J a n - 1 5


benchmark bond rate


361

350

366

358 358

30

32

34

36

38

40

2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E

(NIM)





























385

369

437443

399390

385 386

300

350

400

450

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14E 1Q15E 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E

()

118

106

108

110

112

114

116

118

120

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

()

(34)

(28)

(10)

(21)(22)

(18)

(40)

(35)

(30)

(25)

(20)

(15)

(10)

(5)

0


(bp)

(719)

(610)

(174)

(486)

(349)

(288)

(800)

(700)

(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

0


(TRY m)


























143

139

126

0

5

10

1520

25

30

35

40

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

() Loan growth y-y



1471 1497 1495 1528

1356 1387

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18


CAR ()

29

25

26

27

28

29

30

J u n - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

A u g - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

()

9789 92

120 119

100

85 88 91

106

0

1

2

3

4

5

(1)

2

5

8

11

14

2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3

O c t - 1 4


Specific CoR (RHS)









GDP Growth 35-4 37 35 40 30

CPI 70 61 65-7 6 65

Policy Rate 8

Benchmark 8




USDTRY 240 233

Sector outlook ()

Assets 12-14

Loans 14-16

Deposits 12-14

2015 Targets

Balance sheet ()

Assets 13-15 13-15

Loans 15-17 15 16-17 16-18 15(fx adj)

TL 15-17 15 16-18

FX 11-13 8 14-16

Deposit 15-17 13 16-17 13-15

TL 16-18 11

FX 9-11 8

Loansassets 72


PampL ()

NII 13-15


Opex g 10 13 4-5 (one-off adj 11-12) 11-13

KPIs ()


ROE 13-14 20-22 16-17 (flattish)

ROA 16 14-16 24-26 25

EPS mid teen

NPL ratio 2 +20-30bps 32-34 0




Leverage (x) 88 7

LDR lt100

CAR 14 gt15 16 18

Dividend payout 20





























































26115 TRYUSD 23500

Mcap (USD m) 16000 19123 13883 9822 8750 6277 674 1372

Target Mcap (USD m) 14962 18748 15089 10525 10340 6809 1034 1698

Price (TRY) 940 1070 725 531 1645 590 176 215

Number of shares 4000 4200 4500 4347 1250 2500 900 1500

Mcap 37600 44940 32625 23083 20563 14750 1584 3225

Daily Return () 44 09 13 10 19 19 12 05

W-W Return () 568 70 77 56 100 41 29 29

Y-Y Return () 568 693 704 565 365 590 267 449

Float () 42 50 31 18 49 25 19 40




V a l u a t i o n

Target price (TRY) 879 1049 788 569 1944 640 270 266

Upside () (6) (2) 9 7 18 8 53 24



2013 PBV -solo 176 199 138 133 145 117 106 171

2014E PBV -solo 150 187 115 120 125 104 091 145

2015E PBV-solo 135 167 104 108 109 094 079 127

2013 PE -solo 1278 1495 1031 721 747 930 656 989

2014E PE-solo 1221 1351 966 1227 866 964 600 871

2015E PE-solo 1175 1258 920 1119 820 927 533 833

2013 Book 21339 22585 23579 17309 14146 12616 1497 1885

2014E Book 25065 24020 28467 19237 16493 14141 1739 2228

2015E Book 27849 26832 31314 21334 18951 15667 2014 2538


2013 Net profit 2942 3006 3163 3203 2751 1586 241 326

2014E Net profit 3080 3328 3378 1881 2373 1530 264 370

2015E Net profit 3199 3571 3547 2062 2508 1591 297 387

2013 Reported NIM () 38 37 37 37 42 42 45 44

2014E Reported NIM () 36 37 37 37 36 34 37 41

2015E Reported NIM () 35 36 36 36 35 33 36 42

2013 ROA () 17 17 16 24 23 13 17 28

2014E ROA () 16 16 15 12 16 11 14 27

2015E ROA () 15 15 14 11 15 10 13 24

2013 ROE () 138 137 137 187 211 130 181 181

2014E ROE () 133 139 134 104 156 115 164 181

2015E ROE () 122 141 125 102 142 107 159 165

F i n a n c i a l s

Loans 123813 130953 150855 112621 96111 97637 14198 10542

Securities 48544 42857 39395 23439 27728 22963 1339 3161

Deposits 113112 113886 130461 100012 101462 89197 15399 0

Sh Eq 23897 25106 26536 18408 15648 13682 1660 2149

Assets 202044 214891 230439 168713 149809 147266 21721 14671

Net profit 2863 2907 3193 1734 2505 1495 273 369










Country

Turkey 75263 74008 (2) 155 135 121 849 1123 1001 179 116 128 (289) 121 (72) 121

Argentina 2991 2987 (0) 104 297 264 350 906 824 460 280 339 (177) 100 561 100

Brazil 151760 187370 23 170 155 138 745 846 755 250 182 193 (208) 120 51 120

Chile 28703 35208 23 305 211 193 1274 1035 1043 254 215 193 (44) (07) 227 (07)

Colombia 22279 25643 15 225 158 147 1488 1323 1140 164 133 134 (02) 161 326 161

Peru 15439 18485 20 242 252 220 676 545 455 377 507 517 566 199 486 206

Mexico 33693 36333 8 237 230 216 1510 1653 1450 171 140 153 (100) 140 (01) 140

Czech Republic 7492 7733 3 164 186 183 1221 1462 1439 151 116 128 (200) 16 08 16

Hungary 3866 4661 21 073 077 072 1994 1110 850 46 54 87 221 305 499 305

Poland 43448 48297 11 177 179 171 1495 1531 1467 140 110 119 (118) 44 14 44

Russia 19864 30402 53 141 062 056 572 424 478 286 117 124 (608) (113) (163) (113)

Israel 9954 11610 17 069 070 066 908 804 770 96 83 88 54 44 91 44

South Africa 56300 55768 (1) 188 213 194 981 1313 1149 180 165 177 (126) 142 218 142

Egypt 6706 6444 (4) 187 353 301 644 1419 1123 321 262 289 (46) 263 169 263

Morocco 7624 7383 (3) 229 210 195 1585 1669 1508 159 131 134 (47) 107 60 107

China 1123290 1231844 10 120 084 074 692 652 613 208 153 128 85 64 76 64

Indonesia 83000 85728 3 290 284 243 1055 1414 1241 301 213 211 (176) 140 97 140

India 39793 39991 0 140 152 136 684 1359 1088 213 138 132 (126) 249 04 249

Malaysia 55496 62904 13 187 143 133 1237 1191 1087 167 125 127 (143) 96 04 96

Philippines 23681 23416 (1) 210 228 207 1370 1826 1609 166 128 135 (143) 135 (105) 135

Thailand 75330 74258 (1) 184 196 175 1125 1320 1201 173 157 154 23 99 73 99

Turkey 75263 74008 (2) 155 135 121 849 1123 1001 179 116 128 (289) 121 (72) 121

Turkey (TEB BNPP ) 75263 69350 (8) 155 136 122 849 1101 1039 148 119 125 (232) 67 (60) 60



EM EMEA 220564 234695 6 151 144 132 857 1087 1021 197 123 135 (353) 64 nm nm

EM Asia 1400589 1518141 8 130 094 084 742 726 678 208 153 131 60 71 nm nm

EM LatAm 251873 303039 20 195 172 155 886 924 825 240 189 197 (129) 120 nm nm

EM 1885970 2070471 10 139 105 093 775 779 724 209 152 136 (17) 76 nm nm












lsquo15E



Banks 14 104 110 104 - - - 16 14 12 12 16 12 - - - 163 141 133

Large Banks 6 104 111 105 - - - 16 14 12 12 16 12 - - - 157 130 123

AKBNK 940 879 (6) HOLD 128 122 118 - - - 18 15 14 15 12 12 - - - 138 133 122

GARAN 1070 1049 (2) HOLD 150 135 126 - - - 20 19 17 13 09 10 - - - 137 139 141

HALKB 1645 1944 18 BUY 75 87 82 - - - 15 12 11 22 13 13 - - - 211 156 142

ISCTR 725 788 9 BUY 103 97 92 - - - 14 11 10 20 17 19 - - - 137 134 125

VAKBN 590 640 8 BUY 93 96 93 - - - 12 10 09 07 07 05 - - - 130 115 107

YKBNK 531 569 7 BUY 72 123 112 - - - 13 12 11 13 17 09 - - - 187 104 102


ALBRK 176 270 53 BUY 66 60 53 - - - 11 09 08 00 20 08 - - - 181 164 159

TSKB 215 266 24 BUY 99 87 83 - - - 17 14 13 19 20 23 - - - 181 181 165





















175165 162

152139 136

127 127 124

245228 223

206

183 177166 165 160

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3

3 Q 1 4

2 0 1 4 E

2 0 1 5 E


658628 618

653677 697

719 721 743

921

865

838

874

895909

938 941

959

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3Q14 2014E 2015E
































Turkcell 40 285 358

Vodafone 35 250 250

Avea 30 214 214





premium services

204 253 309 353 384 405 429 435 462

796 747 691 647 616 595 571 565 538

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3Q14 2014E 2015E


809 807 783 770688 656 618 586

13 23 44 73141 190 240

285

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

7080

90

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E








2014E 2015E 2016E 2014E 2015E 2016E

(x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x)

Mobile operators


MTS MTSS RM 35 34 33 65 79 61

MTN MTN SJ 60 59 55 137 134 119

Vodacom VOD SJ 77 78 72 143 132 144

Partner PTNR IT 42 46 47 111 160 107

Cellcom CEL IT 41 48 47 60 110 78


Average 47 49 48 106 118 101





Orange ORA FP 60 60 60 175 163 155



OTE HTO GA 44 45 45 147 128 115

Average 61 60 59 -25 162 145





Bezeq BEZQ IT 52 61 61 80 107 109

Average 47 50 50 112 120 110











TTKOM 768 790 3 HOLD 206 126 122 68 64 61 50 41 36 90 34 48 26 24 22 221 359 315


TCELL 1450 1760 21 BUY 137 123 127 63 59 66 21 25 24 00 148 61 20 19 21 168 187 193



































60

65

70

75

80

85

J a n - 1 0

A p r - 1 0

J u l - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

J a n - 1 1

A p r - 1 1

J u l - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

J a n - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

J u l - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

J a n - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

(index)







2014E 2015E 2016E 2014E 2015E 2016E


Magnit MM IN 16486 100 102 83 164 172 136










Kroger Co KR US 33550 89 78 74 231 199 185





Tesco PLC TSCO LN 28166 61 107 104 69 206 189



BIMAS BIMAS TI 6910 224 177 149 341 262 220






































neutral






BIMAS 4970 5700 15 BUY 365 337 257 243 217 170 151 129 105 15 19 21 12 10 08 460 414 451

BIZIM 1875 1970 5 HOLD 188 339 286 147 144 132 55 51 46 17 17 14 03 03 03 310 157 171

MGROS 2375 2410 1 HOLD na 367 271 160 139 116 51 45 38 00 00 00 09 07 06 (443) 130 152

Food amp Bev 12 na 285 218 na 156 127 24 23 21 16 12 11 27 24 20 24 82 101

Beverages 17 na 345 223 na 151 124 20 19 18 16 09 07 28 25 21 08 56 82

AEFES 2185 2450 12 HOLD na 327 210 na 151 123 14 13 12 23 10 08 28 25 21 321 41 61

CCOLA 4980 6200 24 BUY na 372 242 174 152 126 49 45 39 06 08 05 28 25 21 211 126 172


Real estate












2013







7

8

9

10

11

12

13

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4



4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

90000

139000

188000

237000

286000

335000

1 Q 0 8

3 Q 0 8

1 Q 0 9

3 Q 0 9

1 Q 1 0

3 Q 1 0

1 Q 1 1

3 Q 1 1

1 Q 1 2

3 Q 1 2

1 Q 1 3

3 Q 1 3

1 Q 1 4

3 Q 1 4






























26

30

34

38

42

46

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

J a n

- 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y

- 1 3

J u

l - 1 3

S e p

- 1 3

N o v

- 1 3

J a n

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y

- 1 4

J u

l - 1 4

S e p

- 1 4

N o v

- 1 4



26

30

34

38

42

46

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n

- 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y

- 1 3

J u

l - 1 3

S e p

- 1 3

N o v

- 1 3

J a n

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y

- 1 4

J u

l - 1 4

S e p

- 1 4

N o v

- 1 4



8

9

10

11

12

13

65

70

75

80

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4



8

9

10

11

12

13

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4




























8

9

10

11

12

13

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n - 1 3

F e b - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

A u g - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4


8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16


()






2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Change 2015E Change


Total market

Domestic PC 155634 179488 146604 147128 157349 7 173084 10

Imported PC 354150 414031 409676 517527 429982 (17) 481580 12

PC 509784 593519 556280 664655 587331 (12) 654664 11

Domestic LCV 149720 158586 129399 98778 98224 (1) 113940 16

Imported LCV 101409 112334 92082 89945 82126 (9) 91981 12

LCV 251129 270920 221481 188723 180350 (4) 205921 14


Domestic LV 305354 338074 276003 245906 255573 4 287024 12

Imported LV 455559 526365 501758 607472 512108 (16) 573561 12

LV 760913 864439 777761 853378 767681 (10) 860585 12




confidence levels


--------------------- EVEBITDA --------------------- --------------------------- PE ---------------------------


(x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x)

































Automobiles 5 178 172 98 137 118 99 43 39 31 46 36 42 10 10 09 241 237 350

DOAS 1440 1500 4 BUY 141 125 102 123 108 94 28 28 24 69 69 52 07 07 06 195 224 254

FROTO 3225 3320 3 HOLD 176 247 144 167 153 98 51 45 38 27 18 25 12 12 09 303 194 287

TOASO 1745 1880 8 BUY 201 150 74 118 98 102 46 39 29 55 40 55 11 12 12 219 281 449
































(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

Europe


AF FP 27 40 neg 119 49 49 34 28 (2) 1 2 7 9 11




Easyjet - UK EZJ LN 102 (09) 142 132 120 84 79 70 10 11 11 15 16 17

Average 528 04 151 121 94 69 57 50 5 7 8 13 15 16

Americas




Average 127 25 113 149 115 87 76 71 4 6 7 15 17 19

Asia












Average 648 49 nm 125 96 100 67 61 (1) 3 4 11 15 16

All Average 28 141 123 103 84 66 59 1 4 5 12 16 16








Airlines 7 224 85 91 95 86 74 20 16 13 11 00 00 13 11 11 104 208 153

THYAO 971 1030 6 BUY 212 80 85 95 87 74 19 15 12 13 00 00 12 11 11 102 207 154

PGSUS 3185 3670 15 BUY 345 122 145 92 85 70 28 24 19 00 00 00 16 11 09 128 213 149


































further details




(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

AMERICAS




Average 31 93 91 88 60 68 57 1 1 2 17 14 16

ASIA







Average 30 95 102 93 61 58 59 5 6 6 16 17 17

EUROPE




Average 60 129 105 102 81 69 61 3 4 5 9 10 11

All average 38 180 106 111 70 67 59 34 44 50 14 14 15














EREGL 483 423 (12) HOLD 184 103 130 103 74 83 20 18 18 31 49 73 20 16 17 117 185 139

KOZAA 166 201 21 BUY 31 66 72 17 41 60 05 05 04 00 00 00 09 16 22 161 71 60

KOZAL 1800 1860 3 HOLD 57 101 109 24 37 36 16 15 13 46 53 30 15 18 17 306 150 128

KRDMD 206 238 16 BUY 160 47 44 85 57 53 13 10 08 00 00 00 16 15 13 84 245 209








Top preferences









high on Halk










































































medium to long term





























starting from 2016

















discount channel











three years















APPENDIX









NA NA NA



company



NA NA NA NA




































983345

r983345

m Menkul Değ

erler AŞ



















Buy 345 Buy 870

Hold 253 Hold 430





































6

8

10

12

14

O c t - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

J a n - 1 5


benchmark bond rate


361

350

366

358 358

30

32

34

36

38

40

2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E

(NIM)





























385

369

437443

399390

385 386

300

350

400

450

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14E 1Q15E 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E

()

118

106

108

110

112

114

116

118

120

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

()

(34)

(28)

(10)

(21)(22)

(18)

(40)

(35)

(30)

(25)

(20)

(15)

(10)

(5)

0


(bp)

(719)

(610)

(174)

(486)

(349)

(288)

(800)

(700)

(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

0


(TRY m)


























143

139

126

0

5

10

1520

25

30

35

40

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

() Loan growth y-y



1471 1497 1495 1528

1356 1387

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18


CAR ()

29

25

26

27

28

29

30

J u n - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

A u g - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

()

9789 92

120 119

100

85 88 91

106

0

1

2

3

4

5

(1)

2

5

8

11

14

2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3

O c t - 1 4


Specific CoR (RHS)









GDP Growth 35-4 37 35 40 30

CPI 70 61 65-7 6 65

Policy Rate 8

Benchmark 8




USDTRY 240 233

Sector outlook ()

Assets 12-14

Loans 14-16

Deposits 12-14

2015 Targets

Balance sheet ()

Assets 13-15 13-15

Loans 15-17 15 16-17 16-18 15(fx adj)

TL 15-17 15 16-18

FX 11-13 8 14-16

Deposit 15-17 13 16-17 13-15

TL 16-18 11

FX 9-11 8

Loansassets 72


PampL ()

NII 13-15


Opex g 10 13 4-5 (one-off adj 11-12) 11-13

KPIs ()


ROE 13-14 20-22 16-17 (flattish)

ROA 16 14-16 24-26 25

EPS mid teen

NPL ratio 2 +20-30bps 32-34 0




Leverage (x) 88 7

LDR lt100

CAR 14 gt15 16 18

Dividend payout 20





























































26115 TRYUSD 23500

Mcap (USD m) 16000 19123 13883 9822 8750 6277 674 1372

Target Mcap (USD m) 14962 18748 15089 10525 10340 6809 1034 1698

Price (TRY) 940 1070 725 531 1645 590 176 215

Number of shares 4000 4200 4500 4347 1250 2500 900 1500

Mcap 37600 44940 32625 23083 20563 14750 1584 3225

Daily Return () 44 09 13 10 19 19 12 05

W-W Return () 568 70 77 56 100 41 29 29

Y-Y Return () 568 693 704 565 365 590 267 449

Float () 42 50 31 18 49 25 19 40




V a l u a t i o n

Target price (TRY) 879 1049 788 569 1944 640 270 266

Upside () (6) (2) 9 7 18 8 53 24



2013 PBV -solo 176 199 138 133 145 117 106 171

2014E PBV -solo 150 187 115 120 125 104 091 145

2015E PBV-solo 135 167 104 108 109 094 079 127

2013 PE -solo 1278 1495 1031 721 747 930 656 989

2014E PE-solo 1221 1351 966 1227 866 964 600 871

2015E PE-solo 1175 1258 920 1119 820 927 533 833

2013 Book 21339 22585 23579 17309 14146 12616 1497 1885

2014E Book 25065 24020 28467 19237 16493 14141 1739 2228

2015E Book 27849 26832 31314 21334 18951 15667 2014 2538


2013 Net profit 2942 3006 3163 3203 2751 1586 241 326

2014E Net profit 3080 3328 3378 1881 2373 1530 264 370

2015E Net profit 3199 3571 3547 2062 2508 1591 297 387

2013 Reported NIM () 38 37 37 37 42 42 45 44

2014E Reported NIM () 36 37 37 37 36 34 37 41

2015E Reported NIM () 35 36 36 36 35 33 36 42

2013 ROA () 17 17 16 24 23 13 17 28

2014E ROA () 16 16 15 12 16 11 14 27

2015E ROA () 15 15 14 11 15 10 13 24

2013 ROE () 138 137 137 187 211 130 181 181

2014E ROE () 133 139 134 104 156 115 164 181

2015E ROE () 122 141 125 102 142 107 159 165

F i n a n c i a l s

Loans 123813 130953 150855 112621 96111 97637 14198 10542

Securities 48544 42857 39395 23439 27728 22963 1339 3161

Deposits 113112 113886 130461 100012 101462 89197 15399 0

Sh Eq 23897 25106 26536 18408 15648 13682 1660 2149

Assets 202044 214891 230439 168713 149809 147266 21721 14671

Net profit 2863 2907 3193 1734 2505 1495 273 369










Country

Turkey 75263 74008 (2) 155 135 121 849 1123 1001 179 116 128 (289) 121 (72) 121

Argentina 2991 2987 (0) 104 297 264 350 906 824 460 280 339 (177) 100 561 100

Brazil 151760 187370 23 170 155 138 745 846 755 250 182 193 (208) 120 51 120

Chile 28703 35208 23 305 211 193 1274 1035 1043 254 215 193 (44) (07) 227 (07)

Colombia 22279 25643 15 225 158 147 1488 1323 1140 164 133 134 (02) 161 326 161

Peru 15439 18485 20 242 252 220 676 545 455 377 507 517 566 199 486 206

Mexico 33693 36333 8 237 230 216 1510 1653 1450 171 140 153 (100) 140 (01) 140

Czech Republic 7492 7733 3 164 186 183 1221 1462 1439 151 116 128 (200) 16 08 16

Hungary 3866 4661 21 073 077 072 1994 1110 850 46 54 87 221 305 499 305

Poland 43448 48297 11 177 179 171 1495 1531 1467 140 110 119 (118) 44 14 44

Russia 19864 30402 53 141 062 056 572 424 478 286 117 124 (608) (113) (163) (113)

Israel 9954 11610 17 069 070 066 908 804 770 96 83 88 54 44 91 44

South Africa 56300 55768 (1) 188 213 194 981 1313 1149 180 165 177 (126) 142 218 142

Egypt 6706 6444 (4) 187 353 301 644 1419 1123 321 262 289 (46) 263 169 263

Morocco 7624 7383 (3) 229 210 195 1585 1669 1508 159 131 134 (47) 107 60 107

China 1123290 1231844 10 120 084 074 692 652 613 208 153 128 85 64 76 64

Indonesia 83000 85728 3 290 284 243 1055 1414 1241 301 213 211 (176) 140 97 140

India 39793 39991 0 140 152 136 684 1359 1088 213 138 132 (126) 249 04 249

Malaysia 55496 62904 13 187 143 133 1237 1191 1087 167 125 127 (143) 96 04 96

Philippines 23681 23416 (1) 210 228 207 1370 1826 1609 166 128 135 (143) 135 (105) 135

Thailand 75330 74258 (1) 184 196 175 1125 1320 1201 173 157 154 23 99 73 99

Turkey 75263 74008 (2) 155 135 121 849 1123 1001 179 116 128 (289) 121 (72) 121

Turkey (TEB BNPP ) 75263 69350 (8) 155 136 122 849 1101 1039 148 119 125 (232) 67 (60) 60



EM EMEA 220564 234695 6 151 144 132 857 1087 1021 197 123 135 (353) 64 nm nm

EM Asia 1400589 1518141 8 130 094 084 742 726 678 208 153 131 60 71 nm nm

EM LatAm 251873 303039 20 195 172 155 886 924 825 240 189 197 (129) 120 nm nm

EM 1885970 2070471 10 139 105 093 775 779 724 209 152 136 (17) 76 nm nm












lsquo15E



Banks 14 104 110 104 - - - 16 14 12 12 16 12 - - - 163 141 133

Large Banks 6 104 111 105 - - - 16 14 12 12 16 12 - - - 157 130 123

AKBNK 940 879 (6) HOLD 128 122 118 - - - 18 15 14 15 12 12 - - - 138 133 122

GARAN 1070 1049 (2) HOLD 150 135 126 - - - 20 19 17 13 09 10 - - - 137 139 141

HALKB 1645 1944 18 BUY 75 87 82 - - - 15 12 11 22 13 13 - - - 211 156 142

ISCTR 725 788 9 BUY 103 97 92 - - - 14 11 10 20 17 19 - - - 137 134 125

VAKBN 590 640 8 BUY 93 96 93 - - - 12 10 09 07 07 05 - - - 130 115 107

YKBNK 531 569 7 BUY 72 123 112 - - - 13 12 11 13 17 09 - - - 187 104 102


ALBRK 176 270 53 BUY 66 60 53 - - - 11 09 08 00 20 08 - - - 181 164 159

TSKB 215 266 24 BUY 99 87 83 - - - 17 14 13 19 20 23 - - - 181 181 165





















175165 162

152139 136

127 127 124

245228 223

206

183 177166 165 160

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3

3 Q 1 4

2 0 1 4 E

2 0 1 5 E


658628 618

653677 697

719 721 743

921

865

838

874

895909

938 941

959

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3Q14 2014E 2015E
































Turkcell 40 285 358

Vodafone 35 250 250

Avea 30 214 214





premium services

204 253 309 353 384 405 429 435 462

796 747 691 647 616 595 571 565 538

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3Q14 2014E 2015E


809 807 783 770688 656 618 586

13 23 44 73141 190 240

285

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

7080

90

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E








2014E 2015E 2016E 2014E 2015E 2016E

(x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x)

Mobile operators


MTS MTSS RM 35 34 33 65 79 61

MTN MTN SJ 60 59 55 137 134 119

Vodacom VOD SJ 77 78 72 143 132 144

Partner PTNR IT 42 46 47 111 160 107

Cellcom CEL IT 41 48 47 60 110 78


Average 47 49 48 106 118 101





Orange ORA FP 60 60 60 175 163 155



OTE HTO GA 44 45 45 147 128 115

Average 61 60 59 -25 162 145





Bezeq BEZQ IT 52 61 61 80 107 109

Average 47 50 50 112 120 110











TTKOM 768 790 3 HOLD 206 126 122 68 64 61 50 41 36 90 34 48 26 24 22 221 359 315


TCELL 1450 1760 21 BUY 137 123 127 63 59 66 21 25 24 00 148 61 20 19 21 168 187 193



































60

65

70

75

80

85

J a n - 1 0

A p r - 1 0

J u l - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

J a n - 1 1

A p r - 1 1

J u l - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

J a n - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

J u l - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

J a n - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

(index)







2014E 2015E 2016E 2014E 2015E 2016E


Magnit MM IN 16486 100 102 83 164 172 136










Kroger Co KR US 33550 89 78 74 231 199 185





Tesco PLC TSCO LN 28166 61 107 104 69 206 189



BIMAS BIMAS TI 6910 224 177 149 341 262 220






































neutral






BIMAS 4970 5700 15 BUY 365 337 257 243 217 170 151 129 105 15 19 21 12 10 08 460 414 451

BIZIM 1875 1970 5 HOLD 188 339 286 147 144 132 55 51 46 17 17 14 03 03 03 310 157 171

MGROS 2375 2410 1 HOLD na 367 271 160 139 116 51 45 38 00 00 00 09 07 06 (443) 130 152

Food amp Bev 12 na 285 218 na 156 127 24 23 21 16 12 11 27 24 20 24 82 101

Beverages 17 na 345 223 na 151 124 20 19 18 16 09 07 28 25 21 08 56 82

AEFES 2185 2450 12 HOLD na 327 210 na 151 123 14 13 12 23 10 08 28 25 21 321 41 61

CCOLA 4980 6200 24 BUY na 372 242 174 152 126 49 45 39 06 08 05 28 25 21 211 126 172


Real estate












2013







7

8

9

10

11

12

13

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4



4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

90000

139000

188000

237000

286000

335000

1 Q 0 8

3 Q 0 8

1 Q 0 9

3 Q 0 9

1 Q 1 0

3 Q 1 0

1 Q 1 1

3 Q 1 1

1 Q 1 2

3 Q 1 2

1 Q 1 3

3 Q 1 3

1 Q 1 4

3 Q 1 4






























26

30

34

38

42

46

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

J a n

- 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y

- 1 3

J u

l - 1 3

S e p

- 1 3

N o v

- 1 3

J a n

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y

- 1 4

J u

l - 1 4

S e p

- 1 4

N o v

- 1 4



26

30

34

38

42

46

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n

- 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y

- 1 3

J u

l - 1 3

S e p

- 1 3

N o v

- 1 3

J a n

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y

- 1 4

J u

l - 1 4

S e p

- 1 4

N o v

- 1 4



8

9

10

11

12

13

65

70

75

80

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4



8

9

10

11

12

13

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4




























8

9

10

11

12

13

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n - 1 3

F e b - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

A u g - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4


8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16


()






2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Change 2015E Change


Total market

Domestic PC 155634 179488 146604 147128 157349 7 173084 10

Imported PC 354150 414031 409676 517527 429982 (17) 481580 12

PC 509784 593519 556280 664655 587331 (12) 654664 11

Domestic LCV 149720 158586 129399 98778 98224 (1) 113940 16

Imported LCV 101409 112334 92082 89945 82126 (9) 91981 12

LCV 251129 270920 221481 188723 180350 (4) 205921 14


Domestic LV 305354 338074 276003 245906 255573 4 287024 12

Imported LV 455559 526365 501758 607472 512108 (16) 573561 12

LV 760913 864439 777761 853378 767681 (10) 860585 12




confidence levels


--------------------- EVEBITDA --------------------- --------------------------- PE ---------------------------


(x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x)

































Automobiles 5 178 172 98 137 118 99 43 39 31 46 36 42 10 10 09 241 237 350

DOAS 1440 1500 4 BUY 141 125 102 123 108 94 28 28 24 69 69 52 07 07 06 195 224 254

FROTO 3225 3320 3 HOLD 176 247 144 167 153 98 51 45 38 27 18 25 12 12 09 303 194 287

TOASO 1745 1880 8 BUY 201 150 74 118 98 102 46 39 29 55 40 55 11 12 12 219 281 449
































(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

Europe


AF FP 27 40 neg 119 49 49 34 28 (2) 1 2 7 9 11




Easyjet - UK EZJ LN 102 (09) 142 132 120 84 79 70 10 11 11 15 16 17

Average 528 04 151 121 94 69 57 50 5 7 8 13 15 16

Americas




Average 127 25 113 149 115 87 76 71 4 6 7 15 17 19

Asia












Average 648 49 nm 125 96 100 67 61 (1) 3 4 11 15 16

All Average 28 141 123 103 84 66 59 1 4 5 12 16 16








Airlines 7 224 85 91 95 86 74 20 16 13 11 00 00 13 11 11 104 208 153

THYAO 971 1030 6 BUY 212 80 85 95 87 74 19 15 12 13 00 00 12 11 11 102 207 154

PGSUS 3185 3670 15 BUY 345 122 145 92 85 70 28 24 19 00 00 00 16 11 09 128 213 149


































further details




(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

AMERICAS




Average 31 93 91 88 60 68 57 1 1 2 17 14 16

ASIA







Average 30 95 102 93 61 58 59 5 6 6 16 17 17

EUROPE




Average 60 129 105 102 81 69 61 3 4 5 9 10 11

All average 38 180 106 111 70 67 59 34 44 50 14 14 15














EREGL 483 423 (12) HOLD 184 103 130 103 74 83 20 18 18 31 49 73 20 16 17 117 185 139

KOZAA 166 201 21 BUY 31 66 72 17 41 60 05 05 04 00 00 00 09 16 22 161 71 60

KOZAL 1800 1860 3 HOLD 57 101 109 24 37 36 16 15 13 46 53 30 15 18 17 306 150 128

KRDMD 206 238 16 BUY 160 47 44 85 57 53 13 10 08 00 00 00 16 15 13 84 245 209








Top preferences









high on Halk










































































medium to long term





























starting from 2016

















discount channel











three years















APPENDIX









NA NA NA



company



NA NA NA NA




































983345

r983345

m Menkul Değ

erler AŞ



















Buy 345 Buy 870

Hold 253 Hold 430
































385

369

437443

399390

385 386

300

350

400

450

1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14E 1Q15E 2Q15E 3Q15E 4Q15E

()

118

106

108

110

112

114

116

118

120

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

()

(34)

(28)

(10)

(21)(22)

(18)

(40)

(35)

(30)

(25)

(20)

(15)

(10)

(5)

0


(bp)

(719)

(610)

(174)

(486)

(349)

(288)

(800)

(700)

(600)

(500)

(400)

(300)

(200)

(100)

0


(TRY m)


























143

139

126

0

5

10

1520

25

30

35

40

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

() Loan growth y-y



1471 1497 1495 1528

1356 1387

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18


CAR ()

29

25

26

27

28

29

30

J u n - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

A u g - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

()

9789 92

120 119

100

85 88 91

106

0

1

2

3

4

5

(1)

2

5

8

11

14

2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3

O c t - 1 4


Specific CoR (RHS)









GDP Growth 35-4 37 35 40 30

CPI 70 61 65-7 6 65

Policy Rate 8

Benchmark 8




USDTRY 240 233

Sector outlook ()

Assets 12-14

Loans 14-16

Deposits 12-14

2015 Targets

Balance sheet ()

Assets 13-15 13-15

Loans 15-17 15 16-17 16-18 15(fx adj)

TL 15-17 15 16-18

FX 11-13 8 14-16

Deposit 15-17 13 16-17 13-15

TL 16-18 11

FX 9-11 8

Loansassets 72


PampL ()

NII 13-15


Opex g 10 13 4-5 (one-off adj 11-12) 11-13

KPIs ()


ROE 13-14 20-22 16-17 (flattish)

ROA 16 14-16 24-26 25

EPS mid teen

NPL ratio 2 +20-30bps 32-34 0




Leverage (x) 88 7

LDR lt100

CAR 14 gt15 16 18

Dividend payout 20





























































26115 TRYUSD 23500

Mcap (USD m) 16000 19123 13883 9822 8750 6277 674 1372

Target Mcap (USD m) 14962 18748 15089 10525 10340 6809 1034 1698

Price (TRY) 940 1070 725 531 1645 590 176 215

Number of shares 4000 4200 4500 4347 1250 2500 900 1500

Mcap 37600 44940 32625 23083 20563 14750 1584 3225

Daily Return () 44 09 13 10 19 19 12 05

W-W Return () 568 70 77 56 100 41 29 29

Y-Y Return () 568 693 704 565 365 590 267 449

Float () 42 50 31 18 49 25 19 40




V a l u a t i o n

Target price (TRY) 879 1049 788 569 1944 640 270 266

Upside () (6) (2) 9 7 18 8 53 24



2013 PBV -solo 176 199 138 133 145 117 106 171

2014E PBV -solo 150 187 115 120 125 104 091 145

2015E PBV-solo 135 167 104 108 109 094 079 127

2013 PE -solo 1278 1495 1031 721 747 930 656 989

2014E PE-solo 1221 1351 966 1227 866 964 600 871

2015E PE-solo 1175 1258 920 1119 820 927 533 833

2013 Book 21339 22585 23579 17309 14146 12616 1497 1885

2014E Book 25065 24020 28467 19237 16493 14141 1739 2228

2015E Book 27849 26832 31314 21334 18951 15667 2014 2538


2013 Net profit 2942 3006 3163 3203 2751 1586 241 326

2014E Net profit 3080 3328 3378 1881 2373 1530 264 370

2015E Net profit 3199 3571 3547 2062 2508 1591 297 387

2013 Reported NIM () 38 37 37 37 42 42 45 44

2014E Reported NIM () 36 37 37 37 36 34 37 41

2015E Reported NIM () 35 36 36 36 35 33 36 42

2013 ROA () 17 17 16 24 23 13 17 28

2014E ROA () 16 16 15 12 16 11 14 27

2015E ROA () 15 15 14 11 15 10 13 24

2013 ROE () 138 137 137 187 211 130 181 181

2014E ROE () 133 139 134 104 156 115 164 181

2015E ROE () 122 141 125 102 142 107 159 165

F i n a n c i a l s

Loans 123813 130953 150855 112621 96111 97637 14198 10542

Securities 48544 42857 39395 23439 27728 22963 1339 3161

Deposits 113112 113886 130461 100012 101462 89197 15399 0

Sh Eq 23897 25106 26536 18408 15648 13682 1660 2149

Assets 202044 214891 230439 168713 149809 147266 21721 14671

Net profit 2863 2907 3193 1734 2505 1495 273 369










Country

Turkey 75263 74008 (2) 155 135 121 849 1123 1001 179 116 128 (289) 121 (72) 121

Argentina 2991 2987 (0) 104 297 264 350 906 824 460 280 339 (177) 100 561 100

Brazil 151760 187370 23 170 155 138 745 846 755 250 182 193 (208) 120 51 120

Chile 28703 35208 23 305 211 193 1274 1035 1043 254 215 193 (44) (07) 227 (07)

Colombia 22279 25643 15 225 158 147 1488 1323 1140 164 133 134 (02) 161 326 161

Peru 15439 18485 20 242 252 220 676 545 455 377 507 517 566 199 486 206

Mexico 33693 36333 8 237 230 216 1510 1653 1450 171 140 153 (100) 140 (01) 140

Czech Republic 7492 7733 3 164 186 183 1221 1462 1439 151 116 128 (200) 16 08 16

Hungary 3866 4661 21 073 077 072 1994 1110 850 46 54 87 221 305 499 305

Poland 43448 48297 11 177 179 171 1495 1531 1467 140 110 119 (118) 44 14 44

Russia 19864 30402 53 141 062 056 572 424 478 286 117 124 (608) (113) (163) (113)

Israel 9954 11610 17 069 070 066 908 804 770 96 83 88 54 44 91 44

South Africa 56300 55768 (1) 188 213 194 981 1313 1149 180 165 177 (126) 142 218 142

Egypt 6706 6444 (4) 187 353 301 644 1419 1123 321 262 289 (46) 263 169 263

Morocco 7624 7383 (3) 229 210 195 1585 1669 1508 159 131 134 (47) 107 60 107

China 1123290 1231844 10 120 084 074 692 652 613 208 153 128 85 64 76 64

Indonesia 83000 85728 3 290 284 243 1055 1414 1241 301 213 211 (176) 140 97 140

India 39793 39991 0 140 152 136 684 1359 1088 213 138 132 (126) 249 04 249

Malaysia 55496 62904 13 187 143 133 1237 1191 1087 167 125 127 (143) 96 04 96

Philippines 23681 23416 (1) 210 228 207 1370 1826 1609 166 128 135 (143) 135 (105) 135

Thailand 75330 74258 (1) 184 196 175 1125 1320 1201 173 157 154 23 99 73 99

Turkey 75263 74008 (2) 155 135 121 849 1123 1001 179 116 128 (289) 121 (72) 121

Turkey (TEB BNPP ) 75263 69350 (8) 155 136 122 849 1101 1039 148 119 125 (232) 67 (60) 60



EM EMEA 220564 234695 6 151 144 132 857 1087 1021 197 123 135 (353) 64 nm nm

EM Asia 1400589 1518141 8 130 094 084 742 726 678 208 153 131 60 71 nm nm

EM LatAm 251873 303039 20 195 172 155 886 924 825 240 189 197 (129) 120 nm nm

EM 1885970 2070471 10 139 105 093 775 779 724 209 152 136 (17) 76 nm nm












lsquo15E



Banks 14 104 110 104 - - - 16 14 12 12 16 12 - - - 163 141 133

Large Banks 6 104 111 105 - - - 16 14 12 12 16 12 - - - 157 130 123

AKBNK 940 879 (6) HOLD 128 122 118 - - - 18 15 14 15 12 12 - - - 138 133 122

GARAN 1070 1049 (2) HOLD 150 135 126 - - - 20 19 17 13 09 10 - - - 137 139 141

HALKB 1645 1944 18 BUY 75 87 82 - - - 15 12 11 22 13 13 - - - 211 156 142

ISCTR 725 788 9 BUY 103 97 92 - - - 14 11 10 20 17 19 - - - 137 134 125

VAKBN 590 640 8 BUY 93 96 93 - - - 12 10 09 07 07 05 - - - 130 115 107

YKBNK 531 569 7 BUY 72 123 112 - - - 13 12 11 13 17 09 - - - 187 104 102


ALBRK 176 270 53 BUY 66 60 53 - - - 11 09 08 00 20 08 - - - 181 164 159

TSKB 215 266 24 BUY 99 87 83 - - - 17 14 13 19 20 23 - - - 181 181 165





















175165 162

152139 136

127 127 124

245228 223

206

183 177166 165 160

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3

3 Q 1 4

2 0 1 4 E

2 0 1 5 E


658628 618

653677 697

719 721 743

921

865

838

874

895909

938 941

959

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3Q14 2014E 2015E
































Turkcell 40 285 358

Vodafone 35 250 250

Avea 30 214 214





premium services

204 253 309 353 384 405 429 435 462

796 747 691 647 616 595 571 565 538

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3Q14 2014E 2015E


809 807 783 770688 656 618 586

13 23 44 73141 190 240

285

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

7080

90

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E








2014E 2015E 2016E 2014E 2015E 2016E

(x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x)

Mobile operators


MTS MTSS RM 35 34 33 65 79 61

MTN MTN SJ 60 59 55 137 134 119

Vodacom VOD SJ 77 78 72 143 132 144

Partner PTNR IT 42 46 47 111 160 107

Cellcom CEL IT 41 48 47 60 110 78


Average 47 49 48 106 118 101





Orange ORA FP 60 60 60 175 163 155



OTE HTO GA 44 45 45 147 128 115

Average 61 60 59 -25 162 145





Bezeq BEZQ IT 52 61 61 80 107 109

Average 47 50 50 112 120 110











TTKOM 768 790 3 HOLD 206 126 122 68 64 61 50 41 36 90 34 48 26 24 22 221 359 315


TCELL 1450 1760 21 BUY 137 123 127 63 59 66 21 25 24 00 148 61 20 19 21 168 187 193



































60

65

70

75

80

85

J a n - 1 0

A p r - 1 0

J u l - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

J a n - 1 1

A p r - 1 1

J u l - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

J a n - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

J u l - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

J a n - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

(index)







2014E 2015E 2016E 2014E 2015E 2016E


Magnit MM IN 16486 100 102 83 164 172 136










Kroger Co KR US 33550 89 78 74 231 199 185





Tesco PLC TSCO LN 28166 61 107 104 69 206 189



BIMAS BIMAS TI 6910 224 177 149 341 262 220






































neutral






BIMAS 4970 5700 15 BUY 365 337 257 243 217 170 151 129 105 15 19 21 12 10 08 460 414 451

BIZIM 1875 1970 5 HOLD 188 339 286 147 144 132 55 51 46 17 17 14 03 03 03 310 157 171

MGROS 2375 2410 1 HOLD na 367 271 160 139 116 51 45 38 00 00 00 09 07 06 (443) 130 152

Food amp Bev 12 na 285 218 na 156 127 24 23 21 16 12 11 27 24 20 24 82 101

Beverages 17 na 345 223 na 151 124 20 19 18 16 09 07 28 25 21 08 56 82

AEFES 2185 2450 12 HOLD na 327 210 na 151 123 14 13 12 23 10 08 28 25 21 321 41 61

CCOLA 4980 6200 24 BUY na 372 242 174 152 126 49 45 39 06 08 05 28 25 21 211 126 172


Real estate












2013







7

8

9

10

11

12

13

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4



4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

90000

139000

188000

237000

286000

335000

1 Q 0 8

3 Q 0 8

1 Q 0 9

3 Q 0 9

1 Q 1 0

3 Q 1 0

1 Q 1 1

3 Q 1 1

1 Q 1 2

3 Q 1 2

1 Q 1 3

3 Q 1 3

1 Q 1 4

3 Q 1 4






























26

30

34

38

42

46

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

J a n

- 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y

- 1 3

J u

l - 1 3

S e p

- 1 3

N o v

- 1 3

J a n

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y

- 1 4

J u

l - 1 4

S e p

- 1 4

N o v

- 1 4



26

30

34

38

42

46

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n

- 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y

- 1 3

J u

l - 1 3

S e p

- 1 3

N o v

- 1 3

J a n

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y

- 1 4

J u

l - 1 4

S e p

- 1 4

N o v

- 1 4



8

9

10

11

12

13

65

70

75

80

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4



8

9

10

11

12

13

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4




























8

9

10

11

12

13

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n - 1 3

F e b - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

A u g - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4


8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16


()






2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Change 2015E Change


Total market

Domestic PC 155634 179488 146604 147128 157349 7 173084 10

Imported PC 354150 414031 409676 517527 429982 (17) 481580 12

PC 509784 593519 556280 664655 587331 (12) 654664 11

Domestic LCV 149720 158586 129399 98778 98224 (1) 113940 16

Imported LCV 101409 112334 92082 89945 82126 (9) 91981 12

LCV 251129 270920 221481 188723 180350 (4) 205921 14


Domestic LV 305354 338074 276003 245906 255573 4 287024 12

Imported LV 455559 526365 501758 607472 512108 (16) 573561 12

LV 760913 864439 777761 853378 767681 (10) 860585 12




confidence levels


--------------------- EVEBITDA --------------------- --------------------------- PE ---------------------------


(x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x)

































Automobiles 5 178 172 98 137 118 99 43 39 31 46 36 42 10 10 09 241 237 350

DOAS 1440 1500 4 BUY 141 125 102 123 108 94 28 28 24 69 69 52 07 07 06 195 224 254

FROTO 3225 3320 3 HOLD 176 247 144 167 153 98 51 45 38 27 18 25 12 12 09 303 194 287

TOASO 1745 1880 8 BUY 201 150 74 118 98 102 46 39 29 55 40 55 11 12 12 219 281 449
































(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

Europe


AF FP 27 40 neg 119 49 49 34 28 (2) 1 2 7 9 11




Easyjet - UK EZJ LN 102 (09) 142 132 120 84 79 70 10 11 11 15 16 17

Average 528 04 151 121 94 69 57 50 5 7 8 13 15 16

Americas




Average 127 25 113 149 115 87 76 71 4 6 7 15 17 19

Asia












Average 648 49 nm 125 96 100 67 61 (1) 3 4 11 15 16

All Average 28 141 123 103 84 66 59 1 4 5 12 16 16








Airlines 7 224 85 91 95 86 74 20 16 13 11 00 00 13 11 11 104 208 153

THYAO 971 1030 6 BUY 212 80 85 95 87 74 19 15 12 13 00 00 12 11 11 102 207 154

PGSUS 3185 3670 15 BUY 345 122 145 92 85 70 28 24 19 00 00 00 16 11 09 128 213 149


































further details




(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

AMERICAS




Average 31 93 91 88 60 68 57 1 1 2 17 14 16

ASIA







Average 30 95 102 93 61 58 59 5 6 6 16 17 17

EUROPE




Average 60 129 105 102 81 69 61 3 4 5 9 10 11

All average 38 180 106 111 70 67 59 34 44 50 14 14 15














EREGL 483 423 (12) HOLD 184 103 130 103 74 83 20 18 18 31 49 73 20 16 17 117 185 139

KOZAA 166 201 21 BUY 31 66 72 17 41 60 05 05 04 00 00 00 09 16 22 161 71 60

KOZAL 1800 1860 3 HOLD 57 101 109 24 37 36 16 15 13 46 53 30 15 18 17 306 150 128

KRDMD 206 238 16 BUY 160 47 44 85 57 53 13 10 08 00 00 00 16 15 13 84 245 209








Top preferences









high on Halk










































































medium to long term





























starting from 2016

















discount channel











three years















APPENDIX









NA NA NA



company



NA NA NA NA




































983345

r983345

m Menkul Değ

erler AŞ



















Buy 345 Buy 870

Hold 253 Hold 430





























143

139

126

0

5

10

1520

25

30

35

40

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

() Loan growth y-y



1471 1497 1495 1528

1356 1387

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18


CAR ()

29

25

26

27

28

29

30

J u n - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

A u g - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4

()

9789 92

120 119

100

85 88 91

106

0

1

2

3

4

5

(1)

2

5

8

11

14

2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3

O c t - 1 4


Specific CoR (RHS)









GDP Growth 35-4 37 35 40 30

CPI 70 61 65-7 6 65

Policy Rate 8

Benchmark 8




USDTRY 240 233

Sector outlook ()

Assets 12-14

Loans 14-16

Deposits 12-14

2015 Targets

Balance sheet ()

Assets 13-15 13-15

Loans 15-17 15 16-17 16-18 15(fx adj)

TL 15-17 15 16-18

FX 11-13 8 14-16

Deposit 15-17 13 16-17 13-15

TL 16-18 11

FX 9-11 8

Loansassets 72


PampL ()

NII 13-15


Opex g 10 13 4-5 (one-off adj 11-12) 11-13

KPIs ()


ROE 13-14 20-22 16-17 (flattish)

ROA 16 14-16 24-26 25

EPS mid teen

NPL ratio 2 +20-30bps 32-34 0




Leverage (x) 88 7

LDR lt100

CAR 14 gt15 16 18

Dividend payout 20





























































26115 TRYUSD 23500

Mcap (USD m) 16000 19123 13883 9822 8750 6277 674 1372

Target Mcap (USD m) 14962 18748 15089 10525 10340 6809 1034 1698

Price (TRY) 940 1070 725 531 1645 590 176 215

Number of shares 4000 4200 4500 4347 1250 2500 900 1500

Mcap 37600 44940 32625 23083 20563 14750 1584 3225

Daily Return () 44 09 13 10 19 19 12 05

W-W Return () 568 70 77 56 100 41 29 29

Y-Y Return () 568 693 704 565 365 590 267 449

Float () 42 50 31 18 49 25 19 40




V a l u a t i o n

Target price (TRY) 879 1049 788 569 1944 640 270 266

Upside () (6) (2) 9 7 18 8 53 24



2013 PBV -solo 176 199 138 133 145 117 106 171

2014E PBV -solo 150 187 115 120 125 104 091 145

2015E PBV-solo 135 167 104 108 109 094 079 127

2013 PE -solo 1278 1495 1031 721 747 930 656 989

2014E PE-solo 1221 1351 966 1227 866 964 600 871

2015E PE-solo 1175 1258 920 1119 820 927 533 833

2013 Book 21339 22585 23579 17309 14146 12616 1497 1885

2014E Book 25065 24020 28467 19237 16493 14141 1739 2228

2015E Book 27849 26832 31314 21334 18951 15667 2014 2538


2013 Net profit 2942 3006 3163 3203 2751 1586 241 326

2014E Net profit 3080 3328 3378 1881 2373 1530 264 370

2015E Net profit 3199 3571 3547 2062 2508 1591 297 387

2013 Reported NIM () 38 37 37 37 42 42 45 44

2014E Reported NIM () 36 37 37 37 36 34 37 41

2015E Reported NIM () 35 36 36 36 35 33 36 42

2013 ROA () 17 17 16 24 23 13 17 28

2014E ROA () 16 16 15 12 16 11 14 27

2015E ROA () 15 15 14 11 15 10 13 24

2013 ROE () 138 137 137 187 211 130 181 181

2014E ROE () 133 139 134 104 156 115 164 181

2015E ROE () 122 141 125 102 142 107 159 165

F i n a n c i a l s

Loans 123813 130953 150855 112621 96111 97637 14198 10542

Securities 48544 42857 39395 23439 27728 22963 1339 3161

Deposits 113112 113886 130461 100012 101462 89197 15399 0

Sh Eq 23897 25106 26536 18408 15648 13682 1660 2149

Assets 202044 214891 230439 168713 149809 147266 21721 14671

Net profit 2863 2907 3193 1734 2505 1495 273 369










Country

Turkey 75263 74008 (2) 155 135 121 849 1123 1001 179 116 128 (289) 121 (72) 121

Argentina 2991 2987 (0) 104 297 264 350 906 824 460 280 339 (177) 100 561 100

Brazil 151760 187370 23 170 155 138 745 846 755 250 182 193 (208) 120 51 120

Chile 28703 35208 23 305 211 193 1274 1035 1043 254 215 193 (44) (07) 227 (07)

Colombia 22279 25643 15 225 158 147 1488 1323 1140 164 133 134 (02) 161 326 161

Peru 15439 18485 20 242 252 220 676 545 455 377 507 517 566 199 486 206

Mexico 33693 36333 8 237 230 216 1510 1653 1450 171 140 153 (100) 140 (01) 140

Czech Republic 7492 7733 3 164 186 183 1221 1462 1439 151 116 128 (200) 16 08 16

Hungary 3866 4661 21 073 077 072 1994 1110 850 46 54 87 221 305 499 305

Poland 43448 48297 11 177 179 171 1495 1531 1467 140 110 119 (118) 44 14 44

Russia 19864 30402 53 141 062 056 572 424 478 286 117 124 (608) (113) (163) (113)

Israel 9954 11610 17 069 070 066 908 804 770 96 83 88 54 44 91 44

South Africa 56300 55768 (1) 188 213 194 981 1313 1149 180 165 177 (126) 142 218 142

Egypt 6706 6444 (4) 187 353 301 644 1419 1123 321 262 289 (46) 263 169 263

Morocco 7624 7383 (3) 229 210 195 1585 1669 1508 159 131 134 (47) 107 60 107

China 1123290 1231844 10 120 084 074 692 652 613 208 153 128 85 64 76 64

Indonesia 83000 85728 3 290 284 243 1055 1414 1241 301 213 211 (176) 140 97 140

India 39793 39991 0 140 152 136 684 1359 1088 213 138 132 (126) 249 04 249

Malaysia 55496 62904 13 187 143 133 1237 1191 1087 167 125 127 (143) 96 04 96

Philippines 23681 23416 (1) 210 228 207 1370 1826 1609 166 128 135 (143) 135 (105) 135

Thailand 75330 74258 (1) 184 196 175 1125 1320 1201 173 157 154 23 99 73 99

Turkey 75263 74008 (2) 155 135 121 849 1123 1001 179 116 128 (289) 121 (72) 121

Turkey (TEB BNPP ) 75263 69350 (8) 155 136 122 849 1101 1039 148 119 125 (232) 67 (60) 60



EM EMEA 220564 234695 6 151 144 132 857 1087 1021 197 123 135 (353) 64 nm nm

EM Asia 1400589 1518141 8 130 094 084 742 726 678 208 153 131 60 71 nm nm

EM LatAm 251873 303039 20 195 172 155 886 924 825 240 189 197 (129) 120 nm nm

EM 1885970 2070471 10 139 105 093 775 779 724 209 152 136 (17) 76 nm nm












lsquo15E



Banks 14 104 110 104 - - - 16 14 12 12 16 12 - - - 163 141 133

Large Banks 6 104 111 105 - - - 16 14 12 12 16 12 - - - 157 130 123

AKBNK 940 879 (6) HOLD 128 122 118 - - - 18 15 14 15 12 12 - - - 138 133 122

GARAN 1070 1049 (2) HOLD 150 135 126 - - - 20 19 17 13 09 10 - - - 137 139 141

HALKB 1645 1944 18 BUY 75 87 82 - - - 15 12 11 22 13 13 - - - 211 156 142

ISCTR 725 788 9 BUY 103 97 92 - - - 14 11 10 20 17 19 - - - 137 134 125

VAKBN 590 640 8 BUY 93 96 93 - - - 12 10 09 07 07 05 - - - 130 115 107

YKBNK 531 569 7 BUY 72 123 112 - - - 13 12 11 13 17 09 - - - 187 104 102


ALBRK 176 270 53 BUY 66 60 53 - - - 11 09 08 00 20 08 - - - 181 164 159

TSKB 215 266 24 BUY 99 87 83 - - - 17 14 13 19 20 23 - - - 181 181 165





















175165 162

152139 136

127 127 124

245228 223

206

183 177166 165 160

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3

3 Q 1 4

2 0 1 4 E

2 0 1 5 E


658628 618

653677 697

719 721 743

921

865

838

874

895909

938 941

959

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3Q14 2014E 2015E
































Turkcell 40 285 358

Vodafone 35 250 250

Avea 30 214 214





premium services

204 253 309 353 384 405 429 435 462

796 747 691 647 616 595 571 565 538

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3Q14 2014E 2015E


809 807 783 770688 656 618 586

13 23 44 73141 190 240

285

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

7080

90

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E








2014E 2015E 2016E 2014E 2015E 2016E

(x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x)

Mobile operators


MTS MTSS RM 35 34 33 65 79 61

MTN MTN SJ 60 59 55 137 134 119

Vodacom VOD SJ 77 78 72 143 132 144

Partner PTNR IT 42 46 47 111 160 107

Cellcom CEL IT 41 48 47 60 110 78


Average 47 49 48 106 118 101





Orange ORA FP 60 60 60 175 163 155



OTE HTO GA 44 45 45 147 128 115

Average 61 60 59 -25 162 145





Bezeq BEZQ IT 52 61 61 80 107 109

Average 47 50 50 112 120 110











TTKOM 768 790 3 HOLD 206 126 122 68 64 61 50 41 36 90 34 48 26 24 22 221 359 315


TCELL 1450 1760 21 BUY 137 123 127 63 59 66 21 25 24 00 148 61 20 19 21 168 187 193



































60

65

70

75

80

85

J a n - 1 0

A p r - 1 0

J u l - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

J a n - 1 1

A p r - 1 1

J u l - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

J a n - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

J u l - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

J a n - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

(index)







2014E 2015E 2016E 2014E 2015E 2016E


Magnit MM IN 16486 100 102 83 164 172 136










Kroger Co KR US 33550 89 78 74 231 199 185





Tesco PLC TSCO LN 28166 61 107 104 69 206 189



BIMAS BIMAS TI 6910 224 177 149 341 262 220






































neutral






BIMAS 4970 5700 15 BUY 365 337 257 243 217 170 151 129 105 15 19 21 12 10 08 460 414 451

BIZIM 1875 1970 5 HOLD 188 339 286 147 144 132 55 51 46 17 17 14 03 03 03 310 157 171

MGROS 2375 2410 1 HOLD na 367 271 160 139 116 51 45 38 00 00 00 09 07 06 (443) 130 152

Food amp Bev 12 na 285 218 na 156 127 24 23 21 16 12 11 27 24 20 24 82 101

Beverages 17 na 345 223 na 151 124 20 19 18 16 09 07 28 25 21 08 56 82

AEFES 2185 2450 12 HOLD na 327 210 na 151 123 14 13 12 23 10 08 28 25 21 321 41 61

CCOLA 4980 6200 24 BUY na 372 242 174 152 126 49 45 39 06 08 05 28 25 21 211 126 172


Real estate












2013







7

8

9

10

11

12

13

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4



4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

90000

139000

188000

237000

286000

335000

1 Q 0 8

3 Q 0 8

1 Q 0 9

3 Q 0 9

1 Q 1 0

3 Q 1 0

1 Q 1 1

3 Q 1 1

1 Q 1 2

3 Q 1 2

1 Q 1 3

3 Q 1 3

1 Q 1 4

3 Q 1 4






























26

30

34

38

42

46

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

J a n

- 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y

- 1 3

J u

l - 1 3

S e p

- 1 3

N o v

- 1 3

J a n

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y

- 1 4

J u

l - 1 4

S e p

- 1 4

N o v

- 1 4



26

30

34

38

42

46

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n

- 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y

- 1 3

J u

l - 1 3

S e p

- 1 3

N o v

- 1 3

J a n

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y

- 1 4

J u

l - 1 4

S e p

- 1 4

N o v

- 1 4



8

9

10

11

12

13

65

70

75

80

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4



8

9

10

11

12

13

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4




























8

9

10

11

12

13

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n - 1 3

F e b - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

A u g - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4


8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16


()






2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Change 2015E Change


Total market

Domestic PC 155634 179488 146604 147128 157349 7 173084 10

Imported PC 354150 414031 409676 517527 429982 (17) 481580 12

PC 509784 593519 556280 664655 587331 (12) 654664 11

Domestic LCV 149720 158586 129399 98778 98224 (1) 113940 16

Imported LCV 101409 112334 92082 89945 82126 (9) 91981 12

LCV 251129 270920 221481 188723 180350 (4) 205921 14


Domestic LV 305354 338074 276003 245906 255573 4 287024 12

Imported LV 455559 526365 501758 607472 512108 (16) 573561 12

LV 760913 864439 777761 853378 767681 (10) 860585 12




confidence levels


--------------------- EVEBITDA --------------------- --------------------------- PE ---------------------------


(x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x)

































Automobiles 5 178 172 98 137 118 99 43 39 31 46 36 42 10 10 09 241 237 350

DOAS 1440 1500 4 BUY 141 125 102 123 108 94 28 28 24 69 69 52 07 07 06 195 224 254

FROTO 3225 3320 3 HOLD 176 247 144 167 153 98 51 45 38 27 18 25 12 12 09 303 194 287

TOASO 1745 1880 8 BUY 201 150 74 118 98 102 46 39 29 55 40 55 11 12 12 219 281 449
































(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

Europe


AF FP 27 40 neg 119 49 49 34 28 (2) 1 2 7 9 11




Easyjet - UK EZJ LN 102 (09) 142 132 120 84 79 70 10 11 11 15 16 17

Average 528 04 151 121 94 69 57 50 5 7 8 13 15 16

Americas




Average 127 25 113 149 115 87 76 71 4 6 7 15 17 19

Asia












Average 648 49 nm 125 96 100 67 61 (1) 3 4 11 15 16

All Average 28 141 123 103 84 66 59 1 4 5 12 16 16








Airlines 7 224 85 91 95 86 74 20 16 13 11 00 00 13 11 11 104 208 153

THYAO 971 1030 6 BUY 212 80 85 95 87 74 19 15 12 13 00 00 12 11 11 102 207 154

PGSUS 3185 3670 15 BUY 345 122 145 92 85 70 28 24 19 00 00 00 16 11 09 128 213 149


































further details




(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

AMERICAS




Average 31 93 91 88 60 68 57 1 1 2 17 14 16

ASIA







Average 30 95 102 93 61 58 59 5 6 6 16 17 17

EUROPE




Average 60 129 105 102 81 69 61 3 4 5 9 10 11

All average 38 180 106 111 70 67 59 34 44 50 14 14 15














EREGL 483 423 (12) HOLD 184 103 130 103 74 83 20 18 18 31 49 73 20 16 17 117 185 139

KOZAA 166 201 21 BUY 31 66 72 17 41 60 05 05 04 00 00 00 09 16 22 161 71 60

KOZAL 1800 1860 3 HOLD 57 101 109 24 37 36 16 15 13 46 53 30 15 18 17 306 150 128

KRDMD 206 238 16 BUY 160 47 44 85 57 53 13 10 08 00 00 00 16 15 13 84 245 209








Top preferences









high on Halk










































































medium to long term





























starting from 2016

















discount channel











three years















APPENDIX









NA NA NA



company



NA NA NA NA




































983345

r983345

m Menkul Değ

erler AŞ



















Buy 345 Buy 870

Hold 253 Hold 430












GDP Growth 35-4 37 35 40 30

CPI 70 61 65-7 6 65

Policy Rate 8

Benchmark 8




USDTRY 240 233

Sector outlook ()

Assets 12-14

Loans 14-16

Deposits 12-14

2015 Targets

Balance sheet ()

Assets 13-15 13-15

Loans 15-17 15 16-17 16-18 15(fx adj)

TL 15-17 15 16-18

FX 11-13 8 14-16

Deposit 15-17 13 16-17 13-15

TL 16-18 11

FX 9-11 8

Loansassets 72


PampL ()

NII 13-15


Opex g 10 13 4-5 (one-off adj 11-12) 11-13

KPIs ()


ROE 13-14 20-22 16-17 (flattish)

ROA 16 14-16 24-26 25

EPS mid teen

NPL ratio 2 +20-30bps 32-34 0




Leverage (x) 88 7

LDR lt100

CAR 14 gt15 16 18

Dividend payout 20





























































26115 TRYUSD 23500

Mcap (USD m) 16000 19123 13883 9822 8750 6277 674 1372

Target Mcap (USD m) 14962 18748 15089 10525 10340 6809 1034 1698

Price (TRY) 940 1070 725 531 1645 590 176 215

Number of shares 4000 4200 4500 4347 1250 2500 900 1500

Mcap 37600 44940 32625 23083 20563 14750 1584 3225

Daily Return () 44 09 13 10 19 19 12 05

W-W Return () 568 70 77 56 100 41 29 29

Y-Y Return () 568 693 704 565 365 590 267 449

Float () 42 50 31 18 49 25 19 40




V a l u a t i o n

Target price (TRY) 879 1049 788 569 1944 640 270 266

Upside () (6) (2) 9 7 18 8 53 24



2013 PBV -solo 176 199 138 133 145 117 106 171

2014E PBV -solo 150 187 115 120 125 104 091 145

2015E PBV-solo 135 167 104 108 109 094 079 127

2013 PE -solo 1278 1495 1031 721 747 930 656 989

2014E PE-solo 1221 1351 966 1227 866 964 600 871

2015E PE-solo 1175 1258 920 1119 820 927 533 833

2013 Book 21339 22585 23579 17309 14146 12616 1497 1885

2014E Book 25065 24020 28467 19237 16493 14141 1739 2228

2015E Book 27849 26832 31314 21334 18951 15667 2014 2538


2013 Net profit 2942 3006 3163 3203 2751 1586 241 326

2014E Net profit 3080 3328 3378 1881 2373 1530 264 370

2015E Net profit 3199 3571 3547 2062 2508 1591 297 387

2013 Reported NIM () 38 37 37 37 42 42 45 44

2014E Reported NIM () 36 37 37 37 36 34 37 41

2015E Reported NIM () 35 36 36 36 35 33 36 42

2013 ROA () 17 17 16 24 23 13 17 28

2014E ROA () 16 16 15 12 16 11 14 27

2015E ROA () 15 15 14 11 15 10 13 24

2013 ROE () 138 137 137 187 211 130 181 181

2014E ROE () 133 139 134 104 156 115 164 181

2015E ROE () 122 141 125 102 142 107 159 165

F i n a n c i a l s

Loans 123813 130953 150855 112621 96111 97637 14198 10542

Securities 48544 42857 39395 23439 27728 22963 1339 3161

Deposits 113112 113886 130461 100012 101462 89197 15399 0

Sh Eq 23897 25106 26536 18408 15648 13682 1660 2149

Assets 202044 214891 230439 168713 149809 147266 21721 14671

Net profit 2863 2907 3193 1734 2505 1495 273 369










Country

Turkey 75263 74008 (2) 155 135 121 849 1123 1001 179 116 128 (289) 121 (72) 121

Argentina 2991 2987 (0) 104 297 264 350 906 824 460 280 339 (177) 100 561 100

Brazil 151760 187370 23 170 155 138 745 846 755 250 182 193 (208) 120 51 120

Chile 28703 35208 23 305 211 193 1274 1035 1043 254 215 193 (44) (07) 227 (07)

Colombia 22279 25643 15 225 158 147 1488 1323 1140 164 133 134 (02) 161 326 161

Peru 15439 18485 20 242 252 220 676 545 455 377 507 517 566 199 486 206

Mexico 33693 36333 8 237 230 216 1510 1653 1450 171 140 153 (100) 140 (01) 140

Czech Republic 7492 7733 3 164 186 183 1221 1462 1439 151 116 128 (200) 16 08 16

Hungary 3866 4661 21 073 077 072 1994 1110 850 46 54 87 221 305 499 305

Poland 43448 48297 11 177 179 171 1495 1531 1467 140 110 119 (118) 44 14 44

Russia 19864 30402 53 141 062 056 572 424 478 286 117 124 (608) (113) (163) (113)

Israel 9954 11610 17 069 070 066 908 804 770 96 83 88 54 44 91 44

South Africa 56300 55768 (1) 188 213 194 981 1313 1149 180 165 177 (126) 142 218 142

Egypt 6706 6444 (4) 187 353 301 644 1419 1123 321 262 289 (46) 263 169 263

Morocco 7624 7383 (3) 229 210 195 1585 1669 1508 159 131 134 (47) 107 60 107

China 1123290 1231844 10 120 084 074 692 652 613 208 153 128 85 64 76 64

Indonesia 83000 85728 3 290 284 243 1055 1414 1241 301 213 211 (176) 140 97 140

India 39793 39991 0 140 152 136 684 1359 1088 213 138 132 (126) 249 04 249

Malaysia 55496 62904 13 187 143 133 1237 1191 1087 167 125 127 (143) 96 04 96

Philippines 23681 23416 (1) 210 228 207 1370 1826 1609 166 128 135 (143) 135 (105) 135

Thailand 75330 74258 (1) 184 196 175 1125 1320 1201 173 157 154 23 99 73 99

Turkey 75263 74008 (2) 155 135 121 849 1123 1001 179 116 128 (289) 121 (72) 121

Turkey (TEB BNPP ) 75263 69350 (8) 155 136 122 849 1101 1039 148 119 125 (232) 67 (60) 60



EM EMEA 220564 234695 6 151 144 132 857 1087 1021 197 123 135 (353) 64 nm nm

EM Asia 1400589 1518141 8 130 094 084 742 726 678 208 153 131 60 71 nm nm

EM LatAm 251873 303039 20 195 172 155 886 924 825 240 189 197 (129) 120 nm nm

EM 1885970 2070471 10 139 105 093 775 779 724 209 152 136 (17) 76 nm nm












lsquo15E



Banks 14 104 110 104 - - - 16 14 12 12 16 12 - - - 163 141 133

Large Banks 6 104 111 105 - - - 16 14 12 12 16 12 - - - 157 130 123

AKBNK 940 879 (6) HOLD 128 122 118 - - - 18 15 14 15 12 12 - - - 138 133 122

GARAN 1070 1049 (2) HOLD 150 135 126 - - - 20 19 17 13 09 10 - - - 137 139 141

HALKB 1645 1944 18 BUY 75 87 82 - - - 15 12 11 22 13 13 - - - 211 156 142

ISCTR 725 788 9 BUY 103 97 92 - - - 14 11 10 20 17 19 - - - 137 134 125

VAKBN 590 640 8 BUY 93 96 93 - - - 12 10 09 07 07 05 - - - 130 115 107

YKBNK 531 569 7 BUY 72 123 112 - - - 13 12 11 13 17 09 - - - 187 104 102


ALBRK 176 270 53 BUY 66 60 53 - - - 11 09 08 00 20 08 - - - 181 164 159

TSKB 215 266 24 BUY 99 87 83 - - - 17 14 13 19 20 23 - - - 181 181 165





















175165 162

152139 136

127 127 124

245228 223

206

183 177166 165 160

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3

3 Q 1 4

2 0 1 4 E

2 0 1 5 E


658628 618

653677 697

719 721 743

921

865

838

874

895909

938 941

959

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3Q14 2014E 2015E
































Turkcell 40 285 358

Vodafone 35 250 250

Avea 30 214 214





premium services

204 253 309 353 384 405 429 435 462

796 747 691 647 616 595 571 565 538

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3Q14 2014E 2015E


809 807 783 770688 656 618 586

13 23 44 73141 190 240

285

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

7080

90

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E








2014E 2015E 2016E 2014E 2015E 2016E

(x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x)

Mobile operators


MTS MTSS RM 35 34 33 65 79 61

MTN MTN SJ 60 59 55 137 134 119

Vodacom VOD SJ 77 78 72 143 132 144

Partner PTNR IT 42 46 47 111 160 107

Cellcom CEL IT 41 48 47 60 110 78


Average 47 49 48 106 118 101





Orange ORA FP 60 60 60 175 163 155



OTE HTO GA 44 45 45 147 128 115

Average 61 60 59 -25 162 145





Bezeq BEZQ IT 52 61 61 80 107 109

Average 47 50 50 112 120 110











TTKOM 768 790 3 HOLD 206 126 122 68 64 61 50 41 36 90 34 48 26 24 22 221 359 315


TCELL 1450 1760 21 BUY 137 123 127 63 59 66 21 25 24 00 148 61 20 19 21 168 187 193



































60

65

70

75

80

85

J a n - 1 0

A p r - 1 0

J u l - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

J a n - 1 1

A p r - 1 1

J u l - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

J a n - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

J u l - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

J a n - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

(index)







2014E 2015E 2016E 2014E 2015E 2016E


Magnit MM IN 16486 100 102 83 164 172 136










Kroger Co KR US 33550 89 78 74 231 199 185





Tesco PLC TSCO LN 28166 61 107 104 69 206 189



BIMAS BIMAS TI 6910 224 177 149 341 262 220






































neutral






BIMAS 4970 5700 15 BUY 365 337 257 243 217 170 151 129 105 15 19 21 12 10 08 460 414 451

BIZIM 1875 1970 5 HOLD 188 339 286 147 144 132 55 51 46 17 17 14 03 03 03 310 157 171

MGROS 2375 2410 1 HOLD na 367 271 160 139 116 51 45 38 00 00 00 09 07 06 (443) 130 152

Food amp Bev 12 na 285 218 na 156 127 24 23 21 16 12 11 27 24 20 24 82 101

Beverages 17 na 345 223 na 151 124 20 19 18 16 09 07 28 25 21 08 56 82

AEFES 2185 2450 12 HOLD na 327 210 na 151 123 14 13 12 23 10 08 28 25 21 321 41 61

CCOLA 4980 6200 24 BUY na 372 242 174 152 126 49 45 39 06 08 05 28 25 21 211 126 172


Real estate












2013







7

8

9

10

11

12

13

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4



4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

90000

139000

188000

237000

286000

335000

1 Q 0 8

3 Q 0 8

1 Q 0 9

3 Q 0 9

1 Q 1 0

3 Q 1 0

1 Q 1 1

3 Q 1 1

1 Q 1 2

3 Q 1 2

1 Q 1 3

3 Q 1 3

1 Q 1 4

3 Q 1 4






























26

30

34

38

42

46

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

J a n

- 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y

- 1 3

J u

l - 1 3

S e p

- 1 3

N o v

- 1 3

J a n

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y

- 1 4

J u

l - 1 4

S e p

- 1 4

N o v

- 1 4



26

30

34

38

42

46

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n

- 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y

- 1 3

J u

l - 1 3

S e p

- 1 3

N o v

- 1 3

J a n

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y

- 1 4

J u

l - 1 4

S e p

- 1 4

N o v

- 1 4



8

9

10

11

12

13

65

70

75

80

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4



8

9

10

11

12

13

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4




























8

9

10

11

12

13

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n - 1 3

F e b - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

A u g - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4


8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16


()






2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Change 2015E Change


Total market

Domestic PC 155634 179488 146604 147128 157349 7 173084 10

Imported PC 354150 414031 409676 517527 429982 (17) 481580 12

PC 509784 593519 556280 664655 587331 (12) 654664 11

Domestic LCV 149720 158586 129399 98778 98224 (1) 113940 16

Imported LCV 101409 112334 92082 89945 82126 (9) 91981 12

LCV 251129 270920 221481 188723 180350 (4) 205921 14


Domestic LV 305354 338074 276003 245906 255573 4 287024 12

Imported LV 455559 526365 501758 607472 512108 (16) 573561 12

LV 760913 864439 777761 853378 767681 (10) 860585 12




confidence levels


--------------------- EVEBITDA --------------------- --------------------------- PE ---------------------------


(x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x)

































Automobiles 5 178 172 98 137 118 99 43 39 31 46 36 42 10 10 09 241 237 350

DOAS 1440 1500 4 BUY 141 125 102 123 108 94 28 28 24 69 69 52 07 07 06 195 224 254

FROTO 3225 3320 3 HOLD 176 247 144 167 153 98 51 45 38 27 18 25 12 12 09 303 194 287

TOASO 1745 1880 8 BUY 201 150 74 118 98 102 46 39 29 55 40 55 11 12 12 219 281 449
































(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

Europe


AF FP 27 40 neg 119 49 49 34 28 (2) 1 2 7 9 11




Easyjet - UK EZJ LN 102 (09) 142 132 120 84 79 70 10 11 11 15 16 17

Average 528 04 151 121 94 69 57 50 5 7 8 13 15 16

Americas




Average 127 25 113 149 115 87 76 71 4 6 7 15 17 19

Asia












Average 648 49 nm 125 96 100 67 61 (1) 3 4 11 15 16

All Average 28 141 123 103 84 66 59 1 4 5 12 16 16








Airlines 7 224 85 91 95 86 74 20 16 13 11 00 00 13 11 11 104 208 153

THYAO 971 1030 6 BUY 212 80 85 95 87 74 19 15 12 13 00 00 12 11 11 102 207 154

PGSUS 3185 3670 15 BUY 345 122 145 92 85 70 28 24 19 00 00 00 16 11 09 128 213 149


































further details




(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

AMERICAS




Average 31 93 91 88 60 68 57 1 1 2 17 14 16

ASIA







Average 30 95 102 93 61 58 59 5 6 6 16 17 17

EUROPE




Average 60 129 105 102 81 69 61 3 4 5 9 10 11

All average 38 180 106 111 70 67 59 34 44 50 14 14 15














EREGL 483 423 (12) HOLD 184 103 130 103 74 83 20 18 18 31 49 73 20 16 17 117 185 139

KOZAA 166 201 21 BUY 31 66 72 17 41 60 05 05 04 00 00 00 09 16 22 161 71 60

KOZAL 1800 1860 3 HOLD 57 101 109 24 37 36 16 15 13 46 53 30 15 18 17 306 150 128

KRDMD 206 238 16 BUY 160 47 44 85 57 53 13 10 08 00 00 00 16 15 13 84 245 209








Top preferences









high on Halk










































































medium to long term





























starting from 2016

















discount channel











three years















APPENDIX









NA NA NA



company



NA NA NA NA




































983345

r983345

m Menkul Değ

erler AŞ



















Buy 345 Buy 870

Hold 253 Hold 430
























































26115 TRYUSD 23500

Mcap (USD m) 16000 19123 13883 9822 8750 6277 674 1372

Target Mcap (USD m) 14962 18748 15089 10525 10340 6809 1034 1698

Price (TRY) 940 1070 725 531 1645 590 176 215

Number of shares 4000 4200 4500 4347 1250 2500 900 1500

Mcap 37600 44940 32625 23083 20563 14750 1584 3225

Daily Return () 44 09 13 10 19 19 12 05

W-W Return () 568 70 77 56 100 41 29 29

Y-Y Return () 568 693 704 565 365 590 267 449

Float () 42 50 31 18 49 25 19 40




V a l u a t i o n

Target price (TRY) 879 1049 788 569 1944 640 270 266

Upside () (6) (2) 9 7 18 8 53 24



2013 PBV -solo 176 199 138 133 145 117 106 171

2014E PBV -solo 150 187 115 120 125 104 091 145

2015E PBV-solo 135 167 104 108 109 094 079 127

2013 PE -solo 1278 1495 1031 721 747 930 656 989

2014E PE-solo 1221 1351 966 1227 866 964 600 871

2015E PE-solo 1175 1258 920 1119 820 927 533 833

2013 Book 21339 22585 23579 17309 14146 12616 1497 1885

2014E Book 25065 24020 28467 19237 16493 14141 1739 2228

2015E Book 27849 26832 31314 21334 18951 15667 2014 2538


2013 Net profit 2942 3006 3163 3203 2751 1586 241 326

2014E Net profit 3080 3328 3378 1881 2373 1530 264 370

2015E Net profit 3199 3571 3547 2062 2508 1591 297 387

2013 Reported NIM () 38 37 37 37 42 42 45 44

2014E Reported NIM () 36 37 37 37 36 34 37 41

2015E Reported NIM () 35 36 36 36 35 33 36 42

2013 ROA () 17 17 16 24 23 13 17 28

2014E ROA () 16 16 15 12 16 11 14 27

2015E ROA () 15 15 14 11 15 10 13 24

2013 ROE () 138 137 137 187 211 130 181 181

2014E ROE () 133 139 134 104 156 115 164 181

2015E ROE () 122 141 125 102 142 107 159 165

F i n a n c i a l s

Loans 123813 130953 150855 112621 96111 97637 14198 10542

Securities 48544 42857 39395 23439 27728 22963 1339 3161

Deposits 113112 113886 130461 100012 101462 89197 15399 0

Sh Eq 23897 25106 26536 18408 15648 13682 1660 2149

Assets 202044 214891 230439 168713 149809 147266 21721 14671

Net profit 2863 2907 3193 1734 2505 1495 273 369










Country

Turkey 75263 74008 (2) 155 135 121 849 1123 1001 179 116 128 (289) 121 (72) 121

Argentina 2991 2987 (0) 104 297 264 350 906 824 460 280 339 (177) 100 561 100

Brazil 151760 187370 23 170 155 138 745 846 755 250 182 193 (208) 120 51 120

Chile 28703 35208 23 305 211 193 1274 1035 1043 254 215 193 (44) (07) 227 (07)

Colombia 22279 25643 15 225 158 147 1488 1323 1140 164 133 134 (02) 161 326 161

Peru 15439 18485 20 242 252 220 676 545 455 377 507 517 566 199 486 206

Mexico 33693 36333 8 237 230 216 1510 1653 1450 171 140 153 (100) 140 (01) 140

Czech Republic 7492 7733 3 164 186 183 1221 1462 1439 151 116 128 (200) 16 08 16

Hungary 3866 4661 21 073 077 072 1994 1110 850 46 54 87 221 305 499 305

Poland 43448 48297 11 177 179 171 1495 1531 1467 140 110 119 (118) 44 14 44

Russia 19864 30402 53 141 062 056 572 424 478 286 117 124 (608) (113) (163) (113)

Israel 9954 11610 17 069 070 066 908 804 770 96 83 88 54 44 91 44

South Africa 56300 55768 (1) 188 213 194 981 1313 1149 180 165 177 (126) 142 218 142

Egypt 6706 6444 (4) 187 353 301 644 1419 1123 321 262 289 (46) 263 169 263

Morocco 7624 7383 (3) 229 210 195 1585 1669 1508 159 131 134 (47) 107 60 107

China 1123290 1231844 10 120 084 074 692 652 613 208 153 128 85 64 76 64

Indonesia 83000 85728 3 290 284 243 1055 1414 1241 301 213 211 (176) 140 97 140

India 39793 39991 0 140 152 136 684 1359 1088 213 138 132 (126) 249 04 249

Malaysia 55496 62904 13 187 143 133 1237 1191 1087 167 125 127 (143) 96 04 96

Philippines 23681 23416 (1) 210 228 207 1370 1826 1609 166 128 135 (143) 135 (105) 135

Thailand 75330 74258 (1) 184 196 175 1125 1320 1201 173 157 154 23 99 73 99

Turkey 75263 74008 (2) 155 135 121 849 1123 1001 179 116 128 (289) 121 (72) 121

Turkey (TEB BNPP ) 75263 69350 (8) 155 136 122 849 1101 1039 148 119 125 (232) 67 (60) 60



EM EMEA 220564 234695 6 151 144 132 857 1087 1021 197 123 135 (353) 64 nm nm

EM Asia 1400589 1518141 8 130 094 084 742 726 678 208 153 131 60 71 nm nm

EM LatAm 251873 303039 20 195 172 155 886 924 825 240 189 197 (129) 120 nm nm

EM 1885970 2070471 10 139 105 093 775 779 724 209 152 136 (17) 76 nm nm












lsquo15E



Banks 14 104 110 104 - - - 16 14 12 12 16 12 - - - 163 141 133

Large Banks 6 104 111 105 - - - 16 14 12 12 16 12 - - - 157 130 123

AKBNK 940 879 (6) HOLD 128 122 118 - - - 18 15 14 15 12 12 - - - 138 133 122

GARAN 1070 1049 (2) HOLD 150 135 126 - - - 20 19 17 13 09 10 - - - 137 139 141

HALKB 1645 1944 18 BUY 75 87 82 - - - 15 12 11 22 13 13 - - - 211 156 142

ISCTR 725 788 9 BUY 103 97 92 - - - 14 11 10 20 17 19 - - - 137 134 125

VAKBN 590 640 8 BUY 93 96 93 - - - 12 10 09 07 07 05 - - - 130 115 107

YKBNK 531 569 7 BUY 72 123 112 - - - 13 12 11 13 17 09 - - - 187 104 102


ALBRK 176 270 53 BUY 66 60 53 - - - 11 09 08 00 20 08 - - - 181 164 159

TSKB 215 266 24 BUY 99 87 83 - - - 17 14 13 19 20 23 - - - 181 181 165





















175165 162

152139 136

127 127 124

245228 223

206

183 177166 165 160

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3

3 Q 1 4

2 0 1 4 E

2 0 1 5 E


658628 618

653677 697

719 721 743

921

865

838

874

895909

938 941

959

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3Q14 2014E 2015E
































Turkcell 40 285 358

Vodafone 35 250 250

Avea 30 214 214





premium services

204 253 309 353 384 405 429 435 462

796 747 691 647 616 595 571 565 538

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3Q14 2014E 2015E


809 807 783 770688 656 618 586

13 23 44 73141 190 240

285

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

7080

90

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E








2014E 2015E 2016E 2014E 2015E 2016E

(x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x)

Mobile operators


MTS MTSS RM 35 34 33 65 79 61

MTN MTN SJ 60 59 55 137 134 119

Vodacom VOD SJ 77 78 72 143 132 144

Partner PTNR IT 42 46 47 111 160 107

Cellcom CEL IT 41 48 47 60 110 78


Average 47 49 48 106 118 101





Orange ORA FP 60 60 60 175 163 155



OTE HTO GA 44 45 45 147 128 115

Average 61 60 59 -25 162 145





Bezeq BEZQ IT 52 61 61 80 107 109

Average 47 50 50 112 120 110











TTKOM 768 790 3 HOLD 206 126 122 68 64 61 50 41 36 90 34 48 26 24 22 221 359 315


TCELL 1450 1760 21 BUY 137 123 127 63 59 66 21 25 24 00 148 61 20 19 21 168 187 193



































60

65

70

75

80

85

J a n - 1 0

A p r - 1 0

J u l - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

J a n - 1 1

A p r - 1 1

J u l - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

J a n - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

J u l - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

J a n - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

(index)







2014E 2015E 2016E 2014E 2015E 2016E


Magnit MM IN 16486 100 102 83 164 172 136










Kroger Co KR US 33550 89 78 74 231 199 185





Tesco PLC TSCO LN 28166 61 107 104 69 206 189



BIMAS BIMAS TI 6910 224 177 149 341 262 220






































neutral






BIMAS 4970 5700 15 BUY 365 337 257 243 217 170 151 129 105 15 19 21 12 10 08 460 414 451

BIZIM 1875 1970 5 HOLD 188 339 286 147 144 132 55 51 46 17 17 14 03 03 03 310 157 171

MGROS 2375 2410 1 HOLD na 367 271 160 139 116 51 45 38 00 00 00 09 07 06 (443) 130 152

Food amp Bev 12 na 285 218 na 156 127 24 23 21 16 12 11 27 24 20 24 82 101

Beverages 17 na 345 223 na 151 124 20 19 18 16 09 07 28 25 21 08 56 82

AEFES 2185 2450 12 HOLD na 327 210 na 151 123 14 13 12 23 10 08 28 25 21 321 41 61

CCOLA 4980 6200 24 BUY na 372 242 174 152 126 49 45 39 06 08 05 28 25 21 211 126 172


Real estate












2013







7

8

9

10

11

12

13

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4



4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

90000

139000

188000

237000

286000

335000

1 Q 0 8

3 Q 0 8

1 Q 0 9

3 Q 0 9

1 Q 1 0

3 Q 1 0

1 Q 1 1

3 Q 1 1

1 Q 1 2

3 Q 1 2

1 Q 1 3

3 Q 1 3

1 Q 1 4

3 Q 1 4






























26

30

34

38

42

46

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

J a n

- 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y

- 1 3

J u

l - 1 3

S e p

- 1 3

N o v

- 1 3

J a n

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y

- 1 4

J u

l - 1 4

S e p

- 1 4

N o v

- 1 4



26

30

34

38

42

46

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n

- 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y

- 1 3

J u

l - 1 3

S e p

- 1 3

N o v

- 1 3

J a n

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y

- 1 4

J u

l - 1 4

S e p

- 1 4

N o v

- 1 4



8

9

10

11

12

13

65

70

75

80

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4



8

9

10

11

12

13

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4




























8

9

10

11

12

13

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n - 1 3

F e b - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

A u g - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4


8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16


()






2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Change 2015E Change


Total market

Domestic PC 155634 179488 146604 147128 157349 7 173084 10

Imported PC 354150 414031 409676 517527 429982 (17) 481580 12

PC 509784 593519 556280 664655 587331 (12) 654664 11

Domestic LCV 149720 158586 129399 98778 98224 (1) 113940 16

Imported LCV 101409 112334 92082 89945 82126 (9) 91981 12

LCV 251129 270920 221481 188723 180350 (4) 205921 14


Domestic LV 305354 338074 276003 245906 255573 4 287024 12

Imported LV 455559 526365 501758 607472 512108 (16) 573561 12

LV 760913 864439 777761 853378 767681 (10) 860585 12




confidence levels


--------------------- EVEBITDA --------------------- --------------------------- PE ---------------------------


(x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x)

































Automobiles 5 178 172 98 137 118 99 43 39 31 46 36 42 10 10 09 241 237 350

DOAS 1440 1500 4 BUY 141 125 102 123 108 94 28 28 24 69 69 52 07 07 06 195 224 254

FROTO 3225 3320 3 HOLD 176 247 144 167 153 98 51 45 38 27 18 25 12 12 09 303 194 287

TOASO 1745 1880 8 BUY 201 150 74 118 98 102 46 39 29 55 40 55 11 12 12 219 281 449
































(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

Europe


AF FP 27 40 neg 119 49 49 34 28 (2) 1 2 7 9 11




Easyjet - UK EZJ LN 102 (09) 142 132 120 84 79 70 10 11 11 15 16 17

Average 528 04 151 121 94 69 57 50 5 7 8 13 15 16

Americas




Average 127 25 113 149 115 87 76 71 4 6 7 15 17 19

Asia












Average 648 49 nm 125 96 100 67 61 (1) 3 4 11 15 16

All Average 28 141 123 103 84 66 59 1 4 5 12 16 16








Airlines 7 224 85 91 95 86 74 20 16 13 11 00 00 13 11 11 104 208 153

THYAO 971 1030 6 BUY 212 80 85 95 87 74 19 15 12 13 00 00 12 11 11 102 207 154

PGSUS 3185 3670 15 BUY 345 122 145 92 85 70 28 24 19 00 00 00 16 11 09 128 213 149


































further details




(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

AMERICAS




Average 31 93 91 88 60 68 57 1 1 2 17 14 16

ASIA







Average 30 95 102 93 61 58 59 5 6 6 16 17 17

EUROPE




Average 60 129 105 102 81 69 61 3 4 5 9 10 11

All average 38 180 106 111 70 67 59 34 44 50 14 14 15














EREGL 483 423 (12) HOLD 184 103 130 103 74 83 20 18 18 31 49 73 20 16 17 117 185 139

KOZAA 166 201 21 BUY 31 66 72 17 41 60 05 05 04 00 00 00 09 16 22 161 71 60

KOZAL 1800 1860 3 HOLD 57 101 109 24 37 36 16 15 13 46 53 30 15 18 17 306 150 128

KRDMD 206 238 16 BUY 160 47 44 85 57 53 13 10 08 00 00 00 16 15 13 84 245 209








Top preferences









high on Halk










































































medium to long term





























starting from 2016

















discount channel











three years















APPENDIX









NA NA NA



company



NA NA NA NA




































983345

r983345

m Menkul Değ

erler AŞ



















Buy 345 Buy 870

Hold 253 Hold 430











26115 TRYUSD 23500

Mcap (USD m) 16000 19123 13883 9822 8750 6277 674 1372

Target Mcap (USD m) 14962 18748 15089 10525 10340 6809 1034 1698

Price (TRY) 940 1070 725 531 1645 590 176 215

Number of shares 4000 4200 4500 4347 1250 2500 900 1500

Mcap 37600 44940 32625 23083 20563 14750 1584 3225

Daily Return () 44 09 13 10 19 19 12 05

W-W Return () 568 70 77 56 100 41 29 29

Y-Y Return () 568 693 704 565 365 590 267 449

Float () 42 50 31 18 49 25 19 40




V a l u a t i o n

Target price (TRY) 879 1049 788 569 1944 640 270 266

Upside () (6) (2) 9 7 18 8 53 24



2013 PBV -solo 176 199 138 133 145 117 106 171

2014E PBV -solo 150 187 115 120 125 104 091 145

2015E PBV-solo 135 167 104 108 109 094 079 127

2013 PE -solo 1278 1495 1031 721 747 930 656 989

2014E PE-solo 1221 1351 966 1227 866 964 600 871

2015E PE-solo 1175 1258 920 1119 820 927 533 833

2013 Book 21339 22585 23579 17309 14146 12616 1497 1885

2014E Book 25065 24020 28467 19237 16493 14141 1739 2228

2015E Book 27849 26832 31314 21334 18951 15667 2014 2538


2013 Net profit 2942 3006 3163 3203 2751 1586 241 326

2014E Net profit 3080 3328 3378 1881 2373 1530 264 370

2015E Net profit 3199 3571 3547 2062 2508 1591 297 387

2013 Reported NIM () 38 37 37 37 42 42 45 44

2014E Reported NIM () 36 37 37 37 36 34 37 41

2015E Reported NIM () 35 36 36 36 35 33 36 42

2013 ROA () 17 17 16 24 23 13 17 28

2014E ROA () 16 16 15 12 16 11 14 27

2015E ROA () 15 15 14 11 15 10 13 24

2013 ROE () 138 137 137 187 211 130 181 181

2014E ROE () 133 139 134 104 156 115 164 181

2015E ROE () 122 141 125 102 142 107 159 165

F i n a n c i a l s

Loans 123813 130953 150855 112621 96111 97637 14198 10542

Securities 48544 42857 39395 23439 27728 22963 1339 3161

Deposits 113112 113886 130461 100012 101462 89197 15399 0

Sh Eq 23897 25106 26536 18408 15648 13682 1660 2149

Assets 202044 214891 230439 168713 149809 147266 21721 14671

Net profit 2863 2907 3193 1734 2505 1495 273 369










Country

Turkey 75263 74008 (2) 155 135 121 849 1123 1001 179 116 128 (289) 121 (72) 121

Argentina 2991 2987 (0) 104 297 264 350 906 824 460 280 339 (177) 100 561 100

Brazil 151760 187370 23 170 155 138 745 846 755 250 182 193 (208) 120 51 120

Chile 28703 35208 23 305 211 193 1274 1035 1043 254 215 193 (44) (07) 227 (07)

Colombia 22279 25643 15 225 158 147 1488 1323 1140 164 133 134 (02) 161 326 161

Peru 15439 18485 20 242 252 220 676 545 455 377 507 517 566 199 486 206

Mexico 33693 36333 8 237 230 216 1510 1653 1450 171 140 153 (100) 140 (01) 140

Czech Republic 7492 7733 3 164 186 183 1221 1462 1439 151 116 128 (200) 16 08 16

Hungary 3866 4661 21 073 077 072 1994 1110 850 46 54 87 221 305 499 305

Poland 43448 48297 11 177 179 171 1495 1531 1467 140 110 119 (118) 44 14 44

Russia 19864 30402 53 141 062 056 572 424 478 286 117 124 (608) (113) (163) (113)

Israel 9954 11610 17 069 070 066 908 804 770 96 83 88 54 44 91 44

South Africa 56300 55768 (1) 188 213 194 981 1313 1149 180 165 177 (126) 142 218 142

Egypt 6706 6444 (4) 187 353 301 644 1419 1123 321 262 289 (46) 263 169 263

Morocco 7624 7383 (3) 229 210 195 1585 1669 1508 159 131 134 (47) 107 60 107

China 1123290 1231844 10 120 084 074 692 652 613 208 153 128 85 64 76 64

Indonesia 83000 85728 3 290 284 243 1055 1414 1241 301 213 211 (176) 140 97 140

India 39793 39991 0 140 152 136 684 1359 1088 213 138 132 (126) 249 04 249

Malaysia 55496 62904 13 187 143 133 1237 1191 1087 167 125 127 (143) 96 04 96

Philippines 23681 23416 (1) 210 228 207 1370 1826 1609 166 128 135 (143) 135 (105) 135

Thailand 75330 74258 (1) 184 196 175 1125 1320 1201 173 157 154 23 99 73 99

Turkey 75263 74008 (2) 155 135 121 849 1123 1001 179 116 128 (289) 121 (72) 121

Turkey (TEB BNPP ) 75263 69350 (8) 155 136 122 849 1101 1039 148 119 125 (232) 67 (60) 60



EM EMEA 220564 234695 6 151 144 132 857 1087 1021 197 123 135 (353) 64 nm nm

EM Asia 1400589 1518141 8 130 094 084 742 726 678 208 153 131 60 71 nm nm

EM LatAm 251873 303039 20 195 172 155 886 924 825 240 189 197 (129) 120 nm nm

EM 1885970 2070471 10 139 105 093 775 779 724 209 152 136 (17) 76 nm nm












lsquo15E



Banks 14 104 110 104 - - - 16 14 12 12 16 12 - - - 163 141 133

Large Banks 6 104 111 105 - - - 16 14 12 12 16 12 - - - 157 130 123

AKBNK 940 879 (6) HOLD 128 122 118 - - - 18 15 14 15 12 12 - - - 138 133 122

GARAN 1070 1049 (2) HOLD 150 135 126 - - - 20 19 17 13 09 10 - - - 137 139 141

HALKB 1645 1944 18 BUY 75 87 82 - - - 15 12 11 22 13 13 - - - 211 156 142

ISCTR 725 788 9 BUY 103 97 92 - - - 14 11 10 20 17 19 - - - 137 134 125

VAKBN 590 640 8 BUY 93 96 93 - - - 12 10 09 07 07 05 - - - 130 115 107

YKBNK 531 569 7 BUY 72 123 112 - - - 13 12 11 13 17 09 - - - 187 104 102


ALBRK 176 270 53 BUY 66 60 53 - - - 11 09 08 00 20 08 - - - 181 164 159

TSKB 215 266 24 BUY 99 87 83 - - - 17 14 13 19 20 23 - - - 181 181 165





















175165 162

152139 136

127 127 124

245228 223

206

183 177166 165 160

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3

3 Q 1 4

2 0 1 4 E

2 0 1 5 E


658628 618

653677 697

719 721 743

921

865

838

874

895909

938 941

959

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3Q14 2014E 2015E
































Turkcell 40 285 358

Vodafone 35 250 250

Avea 30 214 214





premium services

204 253 309 353 384 405 429 435 462

796 747 691 647 616 595 571 565 538

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3Q14 2014E 2015E


809 807 783 770688 656 618 586

13 23 44 73141 190 240

285

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

7080

90

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E








2014E 2015E 2016E 2014E 2015E 2016E

(x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x)

Mobile operators


MTS MTSS RM 35 34 33 65 79 61

MTN MTN SJ 60 59 55 137 134 119

Vodacom VOD SJ 77 78 72 143 132 144

Partner PTNR IT 42 46 47 111 160 107

Cellcom CEL IT 41 48 47 60 110 78


Average 47 49 48 106 118 101





Orange ORA FP 60 60 60 175 163 155



OTE HTO GA 44 45 45 147 128 115

Average 61 60 59 -25 162 145





Bezeq BEZQ IT 52 61 61 80 107 109

Average 47 50 50 112 120 110











TTKOM 768 790 3 HOLD 206 126 122 68 64 61 50 41 36 90 34 48 26 24 22 221 359 315


TCELL 1450 1760 21 BUY 137 123 127 63 59 66 21 25 24 00 148 61 20 19 21 168 187 193



































60

65

70

75

80

85

J a n - 1 0

A p r - 1 0

J u l - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

J a n - 1 1

A p r - 1 1

J u l - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

J a n - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

J u l - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

J a n - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

(index)







2014E 2015E 2016E 2014E 2015E 2016E


Magnit MM IN 16486 100 102 83 164 172 136










Kroger Co KR US 33550 89 78 74 231 199 185





Tesco PLC TSCO LN 28166 61 107 104 69 206 189



BIMAS BIMAS TI 6910 224 177 149 341 262 220






































neutral






BIMAS 4970 5700 15 BUY 365 337 257 243 217 170 151 129 105 15 19 21 12 10 08 460 414 451

BIZIM 1875 1970 5 HOLD 188 339 286 147 144 132 55 51 46 17 17 14 03 03 03 310 157 171

MGROS 2375 2410 1 HOLD na 367 271 160 139 116 51 45 38 00 00 00 09 07 06 (443) 130 152

Food amp Bev 12 na 285 218 na 156 127 24 23 21 16 12 11 27 24 20 24 82 101

Beverages 17 na 345 223 na 151 124 20 19 18 16 09 07 28 25 21 08 56 82

AEFES 2185 2450 12 HOLD na 327 210 na 151 123 14 13 12 23 10 08 28 25 21 321 41 61

CCOLA 4980 6200 24 BUY na 372 242 174 152 126 49 45 39 06 08 05 28 25 21 211 126 172


Real estate












2013







7

8

9

10

11

12

13

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4



4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

90000

139000

188000

237000

286000

335000

1 Q 0 8

3 Q 0 8

1 Q 0 9

3 Q 0 9

1 Q 1 0

3 Q 1 0

1 Q 1 1

3 Q 1 1

1 Q 1 2

3 Q 1 2

1 Q 1 3

3 Q 1 3

1 Q 1 4

3 Q 1 4






























26

30

34

38

42

46

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

J a n

- 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y

- 1 3

J u

l - 1 3

S e p

- 1 3

N o v

- 1 3

J a n

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y

- 1 4

J u

l - 1 4

S e p

- 1 4

N o v

- 1 4



26

30

34

38

42

46

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n

- 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y

- 1 3

J u

l - 1 3

S e p

- 1 3

N o v

- 1 3

J a n

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y

- 1 4

J u

l - 1 4

S e p

- 1 4

N o v

- 1 4



8

9

10

11

12

13

65

70

75

80

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4



8

9

10

11

12

13

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4




























8

9

10

11

12

13

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n - 1 3

F e b - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

A u g - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4


8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16


()






2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Change 2015E Change


Total market

Domestic PC 155634 179488 146604 147128 157349 7 173084 10

Imported PC 354150 414031 409676 517527 429982 (17) 481580 12

PC 509784 593519 556280 664655 587331 (12) 654664 11

Domestic LCV 149720 158586 129399 98778 98224 (1) 113940 16

Imported LCV 101409 112334 92082 89945 82126 (9) 91981 12

LCV 251129 270920 221481 188723 180350 (4) 205921 14


Domestic LV 305354 338074 276003 245906 255573 4 287024 12

Imported LV 455559 526365 501758 607472 512108 (16) 573561 12

LV 760913 864439 777761 853378 767681 (10) 860585 12




confidence levels


--------------------- EVEBITDA --------------------- --------------------------- PE ---------------------------


(x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x)

































Automobiles 5 178 172 98 137 118 99 43 39 31 46 36 42 10 10 09 241 237 350

DOAS 1440 1500 4 BUY 141 125 102 123 108 94 28 28 24 69 69 52 07 07 06 195 224 254

FROTO 3225 3320 3 HOLD 176 247 144 167 153 98 51 45 38 27 18 25 12 12 09 303 194 287

TOASO 1745 1880 8 BUY 201 150 74 118 98 102 46 39 29 55 40 55 11 12 12 219 281 449
































(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

Europe


AF FP 27 40 neg 119 49 49 34 28 (2) 1 2 7 9 11




Easyjet - UK EZJ LN 102 (09) 142 132 120 84 79 70 10 11 11 15 16 17

Average 528 04 151 121 94 69 57 50 5 7 8 13 15 16

Americas




Average 127 25 113 149 115 87 76 71 4 6 7 15 17 19

Asia












Average 648 49 nm 125 96 100 67 61 (1) 3 4 11 15 16

All Average 28 141 123 103 84 66 59 1 4 5 12 16 16








Airlines 7 224 85 91 95 86 74 20 16 13 11 00 00 13 11 11 104 208 153

THYAO 971 1030 6 BUY 212 80 85 95 87 74 19 15 12 13 00 00 12 11 11 102 207 154

PGSUS 3185 3670 15 BUY 345 122 145 92 85 70 28 24 19 00 00 00 16 11 09 128 213 149


































further details




(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

AMERICAS




Average 31 93 91 88 60 68 57 1 1 2 17 14 16

ASIA







Average 30 95 102 93 61 58 59 5 6 6 16 17 17

EUROPE




Average 60 129 105 102 81 69 61 3 4 5 9 10 11

All average 38 180 106 111 70 67 59 34 44 50 14 14 15














EREGL 483 423 (12) HOLD 184 103 130 103 74 83 20 18 18 31 49 73 20 16 17 117 185 139

KOZAA 166 201 21 BUY 31 66 72 17 41 60 05 05 04 00 00 00 09 16 22 161 71 60

KOZAL 1800 1860 3 HOLD 57 101 109 24 37 36 16 15 13 46 53 30 15 18 17 306 150 128

KRDMD 206 238 16 BUY 160 47 44 85 57 53 13 10 08 00 00 00 16 15 13 84 245 209








Top preferences









high on Halk










































































medium to long term





























starting from 2016

















discount channel











three years















APPENDIX









NA NA NA



company



NA NA NA NA




































983345

r983345

m Menkul Değ

erler AŞ



















Buy 345 Buy 870

Hold 253 Hold 430












Country

Turkey 75263 74008 (2) 155 135 121 849 1123 1001 179 116 128 (289) 121 (72) 121

Argentina 2991 2987 (0) 104 297 264 350 906 824 460 280 339 (177) 100 561 100

Brazil 151760 187370 23 170 155 138 745 846 755 250 182 193 (208) 120 51 120

Chile 28703 35208 23 305 211 193 1274 1035 1043 254 215 193 (44) (07) 227 (07)

Colombia 22279 25643 15 225 158 147 1488 1323 1140 164 133 134 (02) 161 326 161

Peru 15439 18485 20 242 252 220 676 545 455 377 507 517 566 199 486 206

Mexico 33693 36333 8 237 230 216 1510 1653 1450 171 140 153 (100) 140 (01) 140

Czech Republic 7492 7733 3 164 186 183 1221 1462 1439 151 116 128 (200) 16 08 16

Hungary 3866 4661 21 073 077 072 1994 1110 850 46 54 87 221 305 499 305

Poland 43448 48297 11 177 179 171 1495 1531 1467 140 110 119 (118) 44 14 44

Russia 19864 30402 53 141 062 056 572 424 478 286 117 124 (608) (113) (163) (113)

Israel 9954 11610 17 069 070 066 908 804 770 96 83 88 54 44 91 44

South Africa 56300 55768 (1) 188 213 194 981 1313 1149 180 165 177 (126) 142 218 142

Egypt 6706 6444 (4) 187 353 301 644 1419 1123 321 262 289 (46) 263 169 263

Morocco 7624 7383 (3) 229 210 195 1585 1669 1508 159 131 134 (47) 107 60 107

China 1123290 1231844 10 120 084 074 692 652 613 208 153 128 85 64 76 64

Indonesia 83000 85728 3 290 284 243 1055 1414 1241 301 213 211 (176) 140 97 140

India 39793 39991 0 140 152 136 684 1359 1088 213 138 132 (126) 249 04 249

Malaysia 55496 62904 13 187 143 133 1237 1191 1087 167 125 127 (143) 96 04 96

Philippines 23681 23416 (1) 210 228 207 1370 1826 1609 166 128 135 (143) 135 (105) 135

Thailand 75330 74258 (1) 184 196 175 1125 1320 1201 173 157 154 23 99 73 99

Turkey 75263 74008 (2) 155 135 121 849 1123 1001 179 116 128 (289) 121 (72) 121

Turkey (TEB BNPP ) 75263 69350 (8) 155 136 122 849 1101 1039 148 119 125 (232) 67 (60) 60



EM EMEA 220564 234695 6 151 144 132 857 1087 1021 197 123 135 (353) 64 nm nm

EM Asia 1400589 1518141 8 130 094 084 742 726 678 208 153 131 60 71 nm nm

EM LatAm 251873 303039 20 195 172 155 886 924 825 240 189 197 (129) 120 nm nm

EM 1885970 2070471 10 139 105 093 775 779 724 209 152 136 (17) 76 nm nm












lsquo15E



Banks 14 104 110 104 - - - 16 14 12 12 16 12 - - - 163 141 133

Large Banks 6 104 111 105 - - - 16 14 12 12 16 12 - - - 157 130 123

AKBNK 940 879 (6) HOLD 128 122 118 - - - 18 15 14 15 12 12 - - - 138 133 122

GARAN 1070 1049 (2) HOLD 150 135 126 - - - 20 19 17 13 09 10 - - - 137 139 141

HALKB 1645 1944 18 BUY 75 87 82 - - - 15 12 11 22 13 13 - - - 211 156 142

ISCTR 725 788 9 BUY 103 97 92 - - - 14 11 10 20 17 19 - - - 137 134 125

VAKBN 590 640 8 BUY 93 96 93 - - - 12 10 09 07 07 05 - - - 130 115 107

YKBNK 531 569 7 BUY 72 123 112 - - - 13 12 11 13 17 09 - - - 187 104 102


ALBRK 176 270 53 BUY 66 60 53 - - - 11 09 08 00 20 08 - - - 181 164 159

TSKB 215 266 24 BUY 99 87 83 - - - 17 14 13 19 20 23 - - - 181 181 165





















175165 162

152139 136

127 127 124

245228 223

206

183 177166 165 160

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3

3 Q 1 4

2 0 1 4 E

2 0 1 5 E


658628 618

653677 697

719 721 743

921

865

838

874

895909

938 941

959

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3Q14 2014E 2015E
































Turkcell 40 285 358

Vodafone 35 250 250

Avea 30 214 214





premium services

204 253 309 353 384 405 429 435 462

796 747 691 647 616 595 571 565 538

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3Q14 2014E 2015E


809 807 783 770688 656 618 586

13 23 44 73141 190 240

285

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

7080

90

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E








2014E 2015E 2016E 2014E 2015E 2016E

(x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x)

Mobile operators


MTS MTSS RM 35 34 33 65 79 61

MTN MTN SJ 60 59 55 137 134 119

Vodacom VOD SJ 77 78 72 143 132 144

Partner PTNR IT 42 46 47 111 160 107

Cellcom CEL IT 41 48 47 60 110 78


Average 47 49 48 106 118 101





Orange ORA FP 60 60 60 175 163 155



OTE HTO GA 44 45 45 147 128 115

Average 61 60 59 -25 162 145





Bezeq BEZQ IT 52 61 61 80 107 109

Average 47 50 50 112 120 110











TTKOM 768 790 3 HOLD 206 126 122 68 64 61 50 41 36 90 34 48 26 24 22 221 359 315


TCELL 1450 1760 21 BUY 137 123 127 63 59 66 21 25 24 00 148 61 20 19 21 168 187 193



































60

65

70

75

80

85

J a n - 1 0

A p r - 1 0

J u l - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

J a n - 1 1

A p r - 1 1

J u l - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

J a n - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

J u l - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

J a n - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

(index)







2014E 2015E 2016E 2014E 2015E 2016E


Magnit MM IN 16486 100 102 83 164 172 136










Kroger Co KR US 33550 89 78 74 231 199 185





Tesco PLC TSCO LN 28166 61 107 104 69 206 189



BIMAS BIMAS TI 6910 224 177 149 341 262 220






































neutral






BIMAS 4970 5700 15 BUY 365 337 257 243 217 170 151 129 105 15 19 21 12 10 08 460 414 451

BIZIM 1875 1970 5 HOLD 188 339 286 147 144 132 55 51 46 17 17 14 03 03 03 310 157 171

MGROS 2375 2410 1 HOLD na 367 271 160 139 116 51 45 38 00 00 00 09 07 06 (443) 130 152

Food amp Bev 12 na 285 218 na 156 127 24 23 21 16 12 11 27 24 20 24 82 101

Beverages 17 na 345 223 na 151 124 20 19 18 16 09 07 28 25 21 08 56 82

AEFES 2185 2450 12 HOLD na 327 210 na 151 123 14 13 12 23 10 08 28 25 21 321 41 61

CCOLA 4980 6200 24 BUY na 372 242 174 152 126 49 45 39 06 08 05 28 25 21 211 126 172


Real estate












2013







7

8

9

10

11

12

13

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4



4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

90000

139000

188000

237000

286000

335000

1 Q 0 8

3 Q 0 8

1 Q 0 9

3 Q 0 9

1 Q 1 0

3 Q 1 0

1 Q 1 1

3 Q 1 1

1 Q 1 2

3 Q 1 2

1 Q 1 3

3 Q 1 3

1 Q 1 4

3 Q 1 4






























26

30

34

38

42

46

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

J a n

- 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y

- 1 3

J u

l - 1 3

S e p

- 1 3

N o v

- 1 3

J a n

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y

- 1 4

J u

l - 1 4

S e p

- 1 4

N o v

- 1 4



26

30

34

38

42

46

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n

- 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y

- 1 3

J u

l - 1 3

S e p

- 1 3

N o v

- 1 3

J a n

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y

- 1 4

J u

l - 1 4

S e p

- 1 4

N o v

- 1 4



8

9

10

11

12

13

65

70

75

80

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4



8

9

10

11

12

13

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4




























8

9

10

11

12

13

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n - 1 3

F e b - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

A u g - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4


8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16


()






2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Change 2015E Change


Total market

Domestic PC 155634 179488 146604 147128 157349 7 173084 10

Imported PC 354150 414031 409676 517527 429982 (17) 481580 12

PC 509784 593519 556280 664655 587331 (12) 654664 11

Domestic LCV 149720 158586 129399 98778 98224 (1) 113940 16

Imported LCV 101409 112334 92082 89945 82126 (9) 91981 12

LCV 251129 270920 221481 188723 180350 (4) 205921 14


Domestic LV 305354 338074 276003 245906 255573 4 287024 12

Imported LV 455559 526365 501758 607472 512108 (16) 573561 12

LV 760913 864439 777761 853378 767681 (10) 860585 12




confidence levels


--------------------- EVEBITDA --------------------- --------------------------- PE ---------------------------


(x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x)

































Automobiles 5 178 172 98 137 118 99 43 39 31 46 36 42 10 10 09 241 237 350

DOAS 1440 1500 4 BUY 141 125 102 123 108 94 28 28 24 69 69 52 07 07 06 195 224 254

FROTO 3225 3320 3 HOLD 176 247 144 167 153 98 51 45 38 27 18 25 12 12 09 303 194 287

TOASO 1745 1880 8 BUY 201 150 74 118 98 102 46 39 29 55 40 55 11 12 12 219 281 449
































(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

Europe


AF FP 27 40 neg 119 49 49 34 28 (2) 1 2 7 9 11




Easyjet - UK EZJ LN 102 (09) 142 132 120 84 79 70 10 11 11 15 16 17

Average 528 04 151 121 94 69 57 50 5 7 8 13 15 16

Americas




Average 127 25 113 149 115 87 76 71 4 6 7 15 17 19

Asia












Average 648 49 nm 125 96 100 67 61 (1) 3 4 11 15 16

All Average 28 141 123 103 84 66 59 1 4 5 12 16 16








Airlines 7 224 85 91 95 86 74 20 16 13 11 00 00 13 11 11 104 208 153

THYAO 971 1030 6 BUY 212 80 85 95 87 74 19 15 12 13 00 00 12 11 11 102 207 154

PGSUS 3185 3670 15 BUY 345 122 145 92 85 70 28 24 19 00 00 00 16 11 09 128 213 149


































further details




(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

AMERICAS




Average 31 93 91 88 60 68 57 1 1 2 17 14 16

ASIA







Average 30 95 102 93 61 58 59 5 6 6 16 17 17

EUROPE




Average 60 129 105 102 81 69 61 3 4 5 9 10 11

All average 38 180 106 111 70 67 59 34 44 50 14 14 15














EREGL 483 423 (12) HOLD 184 103 130 103 74 83 20 18 18 31 49 73 20 16 17 117 185 139

KOZAA 166 201 21 BUY 31 66 72 17 41 60 05 05 04 00 00 00 09 16 22 161 71 60

KOZAL 1800 1860 3 HOLD 57 101 109 24 37 36 16 15 13 46 53 30 15 18 17 306 150 128

KRDMD 206 238 16 BUY 160 47 44 85 57 53 13 10 08 00 00 00 16 15 13 84 245 209








Top preferences









high on Halk










































































medium to long term





























starting from 2016

















discount channel











three years















APPENDIX









NA NA NA



company



NA NA NA NA




































983345

r983345

m Menkul Değ

erler AŞ



















Buy 345 Buy 870

Hold 253 Hold 430











lsquo15E



Banks 14 104 110 104 - - - 16 14 12 12 16 12 - - - 163 141 133

Large Banks 6 104 111 105 - - - 16 14 12 12 16 12 - - - 157 130 123

AKBNK 940 879 (6) HOLD 128 122 118 - - - 18 15 14 15 12 12 - - - 138 133 122

GARAN 1070 1049 (2) HOLD 150 135 126 - - - 20 19 17 13 09 10 - - - 137 139 141

HALKB 1645 1944 18 BUY 75 87 82 - - - 15 12 11 22 13 13 - - - 211 156 142

ISCTR 725 788 9 BUY 103 97 92 - - - 14 11 10 20 17 19 - - - 137 134 125

VAKBN 590 640 8 BUY 93 96 93 - - - 12 10 09 07 07 05 - - - 130 115 107

YKBNK 531 569 7 BUY 72 123 112 - - - 13 12 11 13 17 09 - - - 187 104 102


ALBRK 176 270 53 BUY 66 60 53 - - - 11 09 08 00 20 08 - - - 181 164 159

TSKB 215 266 24 BUY 99 87 83 - - - 17 14 13 19 20 23 - - - 181 181 165





















175165 162

152139 136

127 127 124

245228 223

206

183 177166 165 160

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2 0 0 8

2 0 0 9

2 0 1 0

2 0 1 1

2 0 1 2

2 0 1 3

3 Q 1 4

2 0 1 4 E

2 0 1 5 E


658628 618

653677 697

719 721 743

921

865

838

874

895909

938 941

959

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

98

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3Q14 2014E 2015E
































Turkcell 40 285 358

Vodafone 35 250 250

Avea 30 214 214





premium services

204 253 309 353 384 405 429 435 462

796 747 691 647 616 595 571 565 538

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3Q14 2014E 2015E


809 807 783 770688 656 618 586

13 23 44 73141 190 240

285

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

7080

90

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E








2014E 2015E 2016E 2014E 2015E 2016E

(x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x)

Mobile operators


MTS MTSS RM 35 34 33 65 79 61

MTN MTN SJ 60 59 55 137 134 119

Vodacom VOD SJ 77 78 72 143 132 144

Partner PTNR IT 42 46 47 111 160 107

Cellcom CEL IT 41 48 47 60 110 78


Average 47 49 48 106 118 101





Orange ORA FP 60 60 60 175 163 155



OTE HTO GA 44 45 45 147 128 115

Average 61 60 59 -25 162 145





Bezeq BEZQ IT 52 61 61 80 107 109

Average 47 50 50 112 120 110











TTKOM 768 790 3 HOLD 206 126 122 68 64 61 50 41 36 90 34 48 26 24 22 221 359 315


TCELL 1450 1760 21 BUY 137 123 127 63 59 66 21 25 24 00 148 61 20 19 21 168 187 193



































60

65

70

75

80

85

J a n - 1 0

A p r - 1 0

J u l - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

J a n - 1 1

A p r - 1 1

J u l - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

J a n - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

J u l - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

J a n - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

(index)







2014E 2015E 2016E 2014E 2015E 2016E


Magnit MM IN 16486 100 102 83 164 172 136










Kroger Co KR US 33550 89 78 74 231 199 185





Tesco PLC TSCO LN 28166 61 107 104 69 206 189



BIMAS BIMAS TI 6910 224 177 149 341 262 220






































neutral






BIMAS 4970 5700 15 BUY 365 337 257 243 217 170 151 129 105 15 19 21 12 10 08 460 414 451

BIZIM 1875 1970 5 HOLD 188 339 286 147 144 132 55 51 46 17 17 14 03 03 03 310 157 171

MGROS 2375 2410 1 HOLD na 367 271 160 139 116 51 45 38 00 00 00 09 07 06 (443) 130 152

Food amp Bev 12 na 285 218 na 156 127 24 23 21 16 12 11 27 24 20 24 82 101

Beverages 17 na 345 223 na 151 124 20 19 18 16 09 07 28 25 21 08 56 82

AEFES 2185 2450 12 HOLD na 327 210 na 151 123 14 13 12 23 10 08 28 25 21 321 41 61

CCOLA 4980 6200 24 BUY na 372 242 174 152 126 49 45 39 06 08 05 28 25 21 211 126 172


Real estate












2013







7

8

9

10

11

12

13

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4



4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

90000

139000

188000

237000

286000

335000

1 Q 0 8

3 Q 0 8

1 Q 0 9

3 Q 0 9

1 Q 1 0

3 Q 1 0

1 Q 1 1

3 Q 1 1

1 Q 1 2

3 Q 1 2

1 Q 1 3

3 Q 1 3

1 Q 1 4

3 Q 1 4






























26

30

34

38

42

46

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

J a n

- 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y

- 1 3

J u

l - 1 3

S e p

- 1 3

N o v

- 1 3

J a n

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y

- 1 4

J u

l - 1 4

S e p

- 1 4

N o v

- 1 4



26

30

34

38

42

46

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n

- 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y

- 1 3

J u

l - 1 3

S e p

- 1 3

N o v

- 1 3

J a n

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y

- 1 4

J u

l - 1 4

S e p

- 1 4

N o v

- 1 4



8

9

10

11

12

13

65

70

75

80

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4



8

9

10

11

12

13

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4




























8

9

10

11

12

13

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n - 1 3

F e b - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

A u g - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4


8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16


()






2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Change 2015E Change


Total market

Domestic PC 155634 179488 146604 147128 157349 7 173084 10

Imported PC 354150 414031 409676 517527 429982 (17) 481580 12

PC 509784 593519 556280 664655 587331 (12) 654664 11

Domestic LCV 149720 158586 129399 98778 98224 (1) 113940 16

Imported LCV 101409 112334 92082 89945 82126 (9) 91981 12

LCV 251129 270920 221481 188723 180350 (4) 205921 14


Domestic LV 305354 338074 276003 245906 255573 4 287024 12

Imported LV 455559 526365 501758 607472 512108 (16) 573561 12

LV 760913 864439 777761 853378 767681 (10) 860585 12




confidence levels


--------------------- EVEBITDA --------------------- --------------------------- PE ---------------------------


(x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x)

































Automobiles 5 178 172 98 137 118 99 43 39 31 46 36 42 10 10 09 241 237 350

DOAS 1440 1500 4 BUY 141 125 102 123 108 94 28 28 24 69 69 52 07 07 06 195 224 254

FROTO 3225 3320 3 HOLD 176 247 144 167 153 98 51 45 38 27 18 25 12 12 09 303 194 287

TOASO 1745 1880 8 BUY 201 150 74 118 98 102 46 39 29 55 40 55 11 12 12 219 281 449
































(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

Europe


AF FP 27 40 neg 119 49 49 34 28 (2) 1 2 7 9 11




Easyjet - UK EZJ LN 102 (09) 142 132 120 84 79 70 10 11 11 15 16 17

Average 528 04 151 121 94 69 57 50 5 7 8 13 15 16

Americas




Average 127 25 113 149 115 87 76 71 4 6 7 15 17 19

Asia












Average 648 49 nm 125 96 100 67 61 (1) 3 4 11 15 16

All Average 28 141 123 103 84 66 59 1 4 5 12 16 16








Airlines 7 224 85 91 95 86 74 20 16 13 11 00 00 13 11 11 104 208 153

THYAO 971 1030 6 BUY 212 80 85 95 87 74 19 15 12 13 00 00 12 11 11 102 207 154

PGSUS 3185 3670 15 BUY 345 122 145 92 85 70 28 24 19 00 00 00 16 11 09 128 213 149


































further details




(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

AMERICAS




Average 31 93 91 88 60 68 57 1 1 2 17 14 16

ASIA







Average 30 95 102 93 61 58 59 5 6 6 16 17 17

EUROPE




Average 60 129 105 102 81 69 61 3 4 5 9 10 11

All average 38 180 106 111 70 67 59 34 44 50 14 14 15














EREGL 483 423 (12) HOLD 184 103 130 103 74 83 20 18 18 31 49 73 20 16 17 117 185 139

KOZAA 166 201 21 BUY 31 66 72 17 41 60 05 05 04 00 00 00 09 16 22 161 71 60

KOZAL 1800 1860 3 HOLD 57 101 109 24 37 36 16 15 13 46 53 30 15 18 17 306 150 128

KRDMD 206 238 16 BUY 160 47 44 85 57 53 13 10 08 00 00 00 16 15 13 84 245 209








Top preferences









high on Halk










































































medium to long term





























starting from 2016

















discount channel











three years















APPENDIX









NA NA NA



company



NA NA NA NA




































983345

r983345

m Menkul Değ

erler AŞ



















Buy 345 Buy 870

Hold 253 Hold 430


































Turkcell 40 285 358

Vodafone 35 250 250

Avea 30 214 214





premium services

204 253 309 353 384 405 429 435 462

796 747 691 647 616 595 571 565 538

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 3Q14 2014E 2015E


809 807 783 770688 656 618 586

13 23 44 73141 190 240

285

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

7080

90

100

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E








2014E 2015E 2016E 2014E 2015E 2016E

(x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x)

Mobile operators


MTS MTSS RM 35 34 33 65 79 61

MTN MTN SJ 60 59 55 137 134 119

Vodacom VOD SJ 77 78 72 143 132 144

Partner PTNR IT 42 46 47 111 160 107

Cellcom CEL IT 41 48 47 60 110 78


Average 47 49 48 106 118 101





Orange ORA FP 60 60 60 175 163 155



OTE HTO GA 44 45 45 147 128 115

Average 61 60 59 -25 162 145





Bezeq BEZQ IT 52 61 61 80 107 109

Average 47 50 50 112 120 110











TTKOM 768 790 3 HOLD 206 126 122 68 64 61 50 41 36 90 34 48 26 24 22 221 359 315


TCELL 1450 1760 21 BUY 137 123 127 63 59 66 21 25 24 00 148 61 20 19 21 168 187 193



































60

65

70

75

80

85

J a n - 1 0

A p r - 1 0

J u l - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

J a n - 1 1

A p r - 1 1

J u l - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

J a n - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

J u l - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

J a n - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

(index)







2014E 2015E 2016E 2014E 2015E 2016E


Magnit MM IN 16486 100 102 83 164 172 136










Kroger Co KR US 33550 89 78 74 231 199 185





Tesco PLC TSCO LN 28166 61 107 104 69 206 189



BIMAS BIMAS TI 6910 224 177 149 341 262 220






































neutral






BIMAS 4970 5700 15 BUY 365 337 257 243 217 170 151 129 105 15 19 21 12 10 08 460 414 451

BIZIM 1875 1970 5 HOLD 188 339 286 147 144 132 55 51 46 17 17 14 03 03 03 310 157 171

MGROS 2375 2410 1 HOLD na 367 271 160 139 116 51 45 38 00 00 00 09 07 06 (443) 130 152

Food amp Bev 12 na 285 218 na 156 127 24 23 21 16 12 11 27 24 20 24 82 101

Beverages 17 na 345 223 na 151 124 20 19 18 16 09 07 28 25 21 08 56 82

AEFES 2185 2450 12 HOLD na 327 210 na 151 123 14 13 12 23 10 08 28 25 21 321 41 61

CCOLA 4980 6200 24 BUY na 372 242 174 152 126 49 45 39 06 08 05 28 25 21 211 126 172


Real estate












2013







7

8

9

10

11

12

13

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4



4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

90000

139000

188000

237000

286000

335000

1 Q 0 8

3 Q 0 8

1 Q 0 9

3 Q 0 9

1 Q 1 0

3 Q 1 0

1 Q 1 1

3 Q 1 1

1 Q 1 2

3 Q 1 2

1 Q 1 3

3 Q 1 3

1 Q 1 4

3 Q 1 4






























26

30

34

38

42

46

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

J a n

- 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y

- 1 3

J u

l - 1 3

S e p

- 1 3

N o v

- 1 3

J a n

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y

- 1 4

J u

l - 1 4

S e p

- 1 4

N o v

- 1 4



26

30

34

38

42

46

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n

- 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y

- 1 3

J u

l - 1 3

S e p

- 1 3

N o v

- 1 3

J a n

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y

- 1 4

J u

l - 1 4

S e p

- 1 4

N o v

- 1 4



8

9

10

11

12

13

65

70

75

80

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4



8

9

10

11

12

13

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4




























8

9

10

11

12

13

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n - 1 3

F e b - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

A u g - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4


8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16


()






2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Change 2015E Change


Total market

Domestic PC 155634 179488 146604 147128 157349 7 173084 10

Imported PC 354150 414031 409676 517527 429982 (17) 481580 12

PC 509784 593519 556280 664655 587331 (12) 654664 11

Domestic LCV 149720 158586 129399 98778 98224 (1) 113940 16

Imported LCV 101409 112334 92082 89945 82126 (9) 91981 12

LCV 251129 270920 221481 188723 180350 (4) 205921 14


Domestic LV 305354 338074 276003 245906 255573 4 287024 12

Imported LV 455559 526365 501758 607472 512108 (16) 573561 12

LV 760913 864439 777761 853378 767681 (10) 860585 12




confidence levels


--------------------- EVEBITDA --------------------- --------------------------- PE ---------------------------


(x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x)

































Automobiles 5 178 172 98 137 118 99 43 39 31 46 36 42 10 10 09 241 237 350

DOAS 1440 1500 4 BUY 141 125 102 123 108 94 28 28 24 69 69 52 07 07 06 195 224 254

FROTO 3225 3320 3 HOLD 176 247 144 167 153 98 51 45 38 27 18 25 12 12 09 303 194 287

TOASO 1745 1880 8 BUY 201 150 74 118 98 102 46 39 29 55 40 55 11 12 12 219 281 449
































(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

Europe


AF FP 27 40 neg 119 49 49 34 28 (2) 1 2 7 9 11




Easyjet - UK EZJ LN 102 (09) 142 132 120 84 79 70 10 11 11 15 16 17

Average 528 04 151 121 94 69 57 50 5 7 8 13 15 16

Americas




Average 127 25 113 149 115 87 76 71 4 6 7 15 17 19

Asia












Average 648 49 nm 125 96 100 67 61 (1) 3 4 11 15 16

All Average 28 141 123 103 84 66 59 1 4 5 12 16 16








Airlines 7 224 85 91 95 86 74 20 16 13 11 00 00 13 11 11 104 208 153

THYAO 971 1030 6 BUY 212 80 85 95 87 74 19 15 12 13 00 00 12 11 11 102 207 154

PGSUS 3185 3670 15 BUY 345 122 145 92 85 70 28 24 19 00 00 00 16 11 09 128 213 149


































further details




(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

AMERICAS




Average 31 93 91 88 60 68 57 1 1 2 17 14 16

ASIA







Average 30 95 102 93 61 58 59 5 6 6 16 17 17

EUROPE




Average 60 129 105 102 81 69 61 3 4 5 9 10 11

All average 38 180 106 111 70 67 59 34 44 50 14 14 15














EREGL 483 423 (12) HOLD 184 103 130 103 74 83 20 18 18 31 49 73 20 16 17 117 185 139

KOZAA 166 201 21 BUY 31 66 72 17 41 60 05 05 04 00 00 00 09 16 22 161 71 60

KOZAL 1800 1860 3 HOLD 57 101 109 24 37 36 16 15 13 46 53 30 15 18 17 306 150 128

KRDMD 206 238 16 BUY 160 47 44 85 57 53 13 10 08 00 00 00 16 15 13 84 245 209








Top preferences









high on Halk










































































medium to long term





























starting from 2016

















discount channel











three years















APPENDIX









NA NA NA



company



NA NA NA NA




































983345

r983345

m Menkul Değ

erler AŞ



















Buy 345 Buy 870

Hold 253 Hold 430










2014E 2015E 2016E 2014E 2015E 2016E

(x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x)

Mobile operators


MTS MTSS RM 35 34 33 65 79 61

MTN MTN SJ 60 59 55 137 134 119

Vodacom VOD SJ 77 78 72 143 132 144

Partner PTNR IT 42 46 47 111 160 107

Cellcom CEL IT 41 48 47 60 110 78


Average 47 49 48 106 118 101





Orange ORA FP 60 60 60 175 163 155



OTE HTO GA 44 45 45 147 128 115

Average 61 60 59 -25 162 145





Bezeq BEZQ IT 52 61 61 80 107 109

Average 47 50 50 112 120 110











TTKOM 768 790 3 HOLD 206 126 122 68 64 61 50 41 36 90 34 48 26 24 22 221 359 315


TCELL 1450 1760 21 BUY 137 123 127 63 59 66 21 25 24 00 148 61 20 19 21 168 187 193



































60

65

70

75

80

85

J a n - 1 0

A p r - 1 0

J u l - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

J a n - 1 1

A p r - 1 1

J u l - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

J a n - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

J u l - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

J a n - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

(index)







2014E 2015E 2016E 2014E 2015E 2016E


Magnit MM IN 16486 100 102 83 164 172 136










Kroger Co KR US 33550 89 78 74 231 199 185





Tesco PLC TSCO LN 28166 61 107 104 69 206 189



BIMAS BIMAS TI 6910 224 177 149 341 262 220






































neutral






BIMAS 4970 5700 15 BUY 365 337 257 243 217 170 151 129 105 15 19 21 12 10 08 460 414 451

BIZIM 1875 1970 5 HOLD 188 339 286 147 144 132 55 51 46 17 17 14 03 03 03 310 157 171

MGROS 2375 2410 1 HOLD na 367 271 160 139 116 51 45 38 00 00 00 09 07 06 (443) 130 152

Food amp Bev 12 na 285 218 na 156 127 24 23 21 16 12 11 27 24 20 24 82 101

Beverages 17 na 345 223 na 151 124 20 19 18 16 09 07 28 25 21 08 56 82

AEFES 2185 2450 12 HOLD na 327 210 na 151 123 14 13 12 23 10 08 28 25 21 321 41 61

CCOLA 4980 6200 24 BUY na 372 242 174 152 126 49 45 39 06 08 05 28 25 21 211 126 172


Real estate












2013







7

8

9

10

11

12

13

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4



4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

90000

139000

188000

237000

286000

335000

1 Q 0 8

3 Q 0 8

1 Q 0 9

3 Q 0 9

1 Q 1 0

3 Q 1 0

1 Q 1 1

3 Q 1 1

1 Q 1 2

3 Q 1 2

1 Q 1 3

3 Q 1 3

1 Q 1 4

3 Q 1 4






























26

30

34

38

42

46

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

J a n

- 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y

- 1 3

J u

l - 1 3

S e p

- 1 3

N o v

- 1 3

J a n

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y

- 1 4

J u

l - 1 4

S e p

- 1 4

N o v

- 1 4



26

30

34

38

42

46

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n

- 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y

- 1 3

J u

l - 1 3

S e p

- 1 3

N o v

- 1 3

J a n

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y

- 1 4

J u

l - 1 4

S e p

- 1 4

N o v

- 1 4



8

9

10

11

12

13

65

70

75

80

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4



8

9

10

11

12

13

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4




























8

9

10

11

12

13

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n - 1 3

F e b - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

A u g - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4


8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16


()






2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Change 2015E Change


Total market

Domestic PC 155634 179488 146604 147128 157349 7 173084 10

Imported PC 354150 414031 409676 517527 429982 (17) 481580 12

PC 509784 593519 556280 664655 587331 (12) 654664 11

Domestic LCV 149720 158586 129399 98778 98224 (1) 113940 16

Imported LCV 101409 112334 92082 89945 82126 (9) 91981 12

LCV 251129 270920 221481 188723 180350 (4) 205921 14


Domestic LV 305354 338074 276003 245906 255573 4 287024 12

Imported LV 455559 526365 501758 607472 512108 (16) 573561 12

LV 760913 864439 777761 853378 767681 (10) 860585 12




confidence levels


--------------------- EVEBITDA --------------------- --------------------------- PE ---------------------------


(x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x)

































Automobiles 5 178 172 98 137 118 99 43 39 31 46 36 42 10 10 09 241 237 350

DOAS 1440 1500 4 BUY 141 125 102 123 108 94 28 28 24 69 69 52 07 07 06 195 224 254

FROTO 3225 3320 3 HOLD 176 247 144 167 153 98 51 45 38 27 18 25 12 12 09 303 194 287

TOASO 1745 1880 8 BUY 201 150 74 118 98 102 46 39 29 55 40 55 11 12 12 219 281 449
































(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

Europe


AF FP 27 40 neg 119 49 49 34 28 (2) 1 2 7 9 11




Easyjet - UK EZJ LN 102 (09) 142 132 120 84 79 70 10 11 11 15 16 17

Average 528 04 151 121 94 69 57 50 5 7 8 13 15 16

Americas




Average 127 25 113 149 115 87 76 71 4 6 7 15 17 19

Asia












Average 648 49 nm 125 96 100 67 61 (1) 3 4 11 15 16

All Average 28 141 123 103 84 66 59 1 4 5 12 16 16








Airlines 7 224 85 91 95 86 74 20 16 13 11 00 00 13 11 11 104 208 153

THYAO 971 1030 6 BUY 212 80 85 95 87 74 19 15 12 13 00 00 12 11 11 102 207 154

PGSUS 3185 3670 15 BUY 345 122 145 92 85 70 28 24 19 00 00 00 16 11 09 128 213 149


































further details




(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

AMERICAS




Average 31 93 91 88 60 68 57 1 1 2 17 14 16

ASIA







Average 30 95 102 93 61 58 59 5 6 6 16 17 17

EUROPE




Average 60 129 105 102 81 69 61 3 4 5 9 10 11

All average 38 180 106 111 70 67 59 34 44 50 14 14 15














EREGL 483 423 (12) HOLD 184 103 130 103 74 83 20 18 18 31 49 73 20 16 17 117 185 139

KOZAA 166 201 21 BUY 31 66 72 17 41 60 05 05 04 00 00 00 09 16 22 161 71 60

KOZAL 1800 1860 3 HOLD 57 101 109 24 37 36 16 15 13 46 53 30 15 18 17 306 150 128

KRDMD 206 238 16 BUY 160 47 44 85 57 53 13 10 08 00 00 00 16 15 13 84 245 209








Top preferences









high on Halk










































































medium to long term





























starting from 2016

















discount channel











three years















APPENDIX









NA NA NA



company



NA NA NA NA




































983345

r983345

m Menkul Değ

erler AŞ



















Buy 345 Buy 870

Hold 253 Hold 430





































60

65

70

75

80

85

J a n - 1 0

A p r - 1 0

J u l - 1 0

O c t - 1 0

J a n - 1 1

A p r - 1 1

J u l - 1 1

O c t - 1 1

J a n - 1 2

A p r - 1 2

J u l - 1 2

O c t - 1 2

J a n - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

J a n - 1 5

(index)







2014E 2015E 2016E 2014E 2015E 2016E


Magnit MM IN 16486 100 102 83 164 172 136










Kroger Co KR US 33550 89 78 74 231 199 185





Tesco PLC TSCO LN 28166 61 107 104 69 206 189



BIMAS BIMAS TI 6910 224 177 149 341 262 220






































neutral






BIMAS 4970 5700 15 BUY 365 337 257 243 217 170 151 129 105 15 19 21 12 10 08 460 414 451

BIZIM 1875 1970 5 HOLD 188 339 286 147 144 132 55 51 46 17 17 14 03 03 03 310 157 171

MGROS 2375 2410 1 HOLD na 367 271 160 139 116 51 45 38 00 00 00 09 07 06 (443) 130 152

Food amp Bev 12 na 285 218 na 156 127 24 23 21 16 12 11 27 24 20 24 82 101

Beverages 17 na 345 223 na 151 124 20 19 18 16 09 07 28 25 21 08 56 82

AEFES 2185 2450 12 HOLD na 327 210 na 151 123 14 13 12 23 10 08 28 25 21 321 41 61

CCOLA 4980 6200 24 BUY na 372 242 174 152 126 49 45 39 06 08 05 28 25 21 211 126 172


Real estate












2013







7

8

9

10

11

12

13

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4



4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

90000

139000

188000

237000

286000

335000

1 Q 0 8

3 Q 0 8

1 Q 0 9

3 Q 0 9

1 Q 1 0

3 Q 1 0

1 Q 1 1

3 Q 1 1

1 Q 1 2

3 Q 1 2

1 Q 1 3

3 Q 1 3

1 Q 1 4

3 Q 1 4






























26

30

34

38

42

46

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

J a n

- 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y

- 1 3

J u

l - 1 3

S e p

- 1 3

N o v

- 1 3

J a n

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y

- 1 4

J u

l - 1 4

S e p

- 1 4

N o v

- 1 4



26

30

34

38

42

46

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n

- 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y

- 1 3

J u

l - 1 3

S e p

- 1 3

N o v

- 1 3

J a n

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y

- 1 4

J u

l - 1 4

S e p

- 1 4

N o v

- 1 4



8

9

10

11

12

13

65

70

75

80

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4



8

9

10

11

12

13

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4




























8

9

10

11

12

13

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n - 1 3

F e b - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

A u g - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4


8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16


()






2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Change 2015E Change


Total market

Domestic PC 155634 179488 146604 147128 157349 7 173084 10

Imported PC 354150 414031 409676 517527 429982 (17) 481580 12

PC 509784 593519 556280 664655 587331 (12) 654664 11

Domestic LCV 149720 158586 129399 98778 98224 (1) 113940 16

Imported LCV 101409 112334 92082 89945 82126 (9) 91981 12

LCV 251129 270920 221481 188723 180350 (4) 205921 14


Domestic LV 305354 338074 276003 245906 255573 4 287024 12

Imported LV 455559 526365 501758 607472 512108 (16) 573561 12

LV 760913 864439 777761 853378 767681 (10) 860585 12




confidence levels


--------------------- EVEBITDA --------------------- --------------------------- PE ---------------------------


(x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x)

































Automobiles 5 178 172 98 137 118 99 43 39 31 46 36 42 10 10 09 241 237 350

DOAS 1440 1500 4 BUY 141 125 102 123 108 94 28 28 24 69 69 52 07 07 06 195 224 254

FROTO 3225 3320 3 HOLD 176 247 144 167 153 98 51 45 38 27 18 25 12 12 09 303 194 287

TOASO 1745 1880 8 BUY 201 150 74 118 98 102 46 39 29 55 40 55 11 12 12 219 281 449
































(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

Europe


AF FP 27 40 neg 119 49 49 34 28 (2) 1 2 7 9 11




Easyjet - UK EZJ LN 102 (09) 142 132 120 84 79 70 10 11 11 15 16 17

Average 528 04 151 121 94 69 57 50 5 7 8 13 15 16

Americas




Average 127 25 113 149 115 87 76 71 4 6 7 15 17 19

Asia












Average 648 49 nm 125 96 100 67 61 (1) 3 4 11 15 16

All Average 28 141 123 103 84 66 59 1 4 5 12 16 16








Airlines 7 224 85 91 95 86 74 20 16 13 11 00 00 13 11 11 104 208 153

THYAO 971 1030 6 BUY 212 80 85 95 87 74 19 15 12 13 00 00 12 11 11 102 207 154

PGSUS 3185 3670 15 BUY 345 122 145 92 85 70 28 24 19 00 00 00 16 11 09 128 213 149


































further details




(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

AMERICAS




Average 31 93 91 88 60 68 57 1 1 2 17 14 16

ASIA







Average 30 95 102 93 61 58 59 5 6 6 16 17 17

EUROPE




Average 60 129 105 102 81 69 61 3 4 5 9 10 11

All average 38 180 106 111 70 67 59 34 44 50 14 14 15














EREGL 483 423 (12) HOLD 184 103 130 103 74 83 20 18 18 31 49 73 20 16 17 117 185 139

KOZAA 166 201 21 BUY 31 66 72 17 41 60 05 05 04 00 00 00 09 16 22 161 71 60

KOZAL 1800 1860 3 HOLD 57 101 109 24 37 36 16 15 13 46 53 30 15 18 17 306 150 128

KRDMD 206 238 16 BUY 160 47 44 85 57 53 13 10 08 00 00 00 16 15 13 84 245 209








Top preferences









high on Halk










































































medium to long term





























starting from 2016

















discount channel











three years















APPENDIX









NA NA NA



company



NA NA NA NA




































983345

r983345

m Menkul Değ

erler AŞ



















Buy 345 Buy 870

Hold 253 Hold 430










2014E 2015E 2016E 2014E 2015E 2016E


Magnit MM IN 16486 100 102 83 164 172 136










Kroger Co KR US 33550 89 78 74 231 199 185





Tesco PLC TSCO LN 28166 61 107 104 69 206 189



BIMAS BIMAS TI 6910 224 177 149 341 262 220






































neutral






BIMAS 4970 5700 15 BUY 365 337 257 243 217 170 151 129 105 15 19 21 12 10 08 460 414 451

BIZIM 1875 1970 5 HOLD 188 339 286 147 144 132 55 51 46 17 17 14 03 03 03 310 157 171

MGROS 2375 2410 1 HOLD na 367 271 160 139 116 51 45 38 00 00 00 09 07 06 (443) 130 152

Food amp Bev 12 na 285 218 na 156 127 24 23 21 16 12 11 27 24 20 24 82 101

Beverages 17 na 345 223 na 151 124 20 19 18 16 09 07 28 25 21 08 56 82

AEFES 2185 2450 12 HOLD na 327 210 na 151 123 14 13 12 23 10 08 28 25 21 321 41 61

CCOLA 4980 6200 24 BUY na 372 242 174 152 126 49 45 39 06 08 05 28 25 21 211 126 172


Real estate












2013







7

8

9

10

11

12

13

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4



4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

90000

139000

188000

237000

286000

335000

1 Q 0 8

3 Q 0 8

1 Q 0 9

3 Q 0 9

1 Q 1 0

3 Q 1 0

1 Q 1 1

3 Q 1 1

1 Q 1 2

3 Q 1 2

1 Q 1 3

3 Q 1 3

1 Q 1 4

3 Q 1 4






























26

30

34

38

42

46

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

J a n

- 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y

- 1 3

J u

l - 1 3

S e p

- 1 3

N o v

- 1 3

J a n

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y

- 1 4

J u

l - 1 4

S e p

- 1 4

N o v

- 1 4



26

30

34

38

42

46

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n

- 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y

- 1 3

J u

l - 1 3

S e p

- 1 3

N o v

- 1 3

J a n

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y

- 1 4

J u

l - 1 4

S e p

- 1 4

N o v

- 1 4



8

9

10

11

12

13

65

70

75

80

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4



8

9

10

11

12

13

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4




























8

9

10

11

12

13

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n - 1 3

F e b - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

A u g - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4


8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16


()






2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Change 2015E Change


Total market

Domestic PC 155634 179488 146604 147128 157349 7 173084 10

Imported PC 354150 414031 409676 517527 429982 (17) 481580 12

PC 509784 593519 556280 664655 587331 (12) 654664 11

Domestic LCV 149720 158586 129399 98778 98224 (1) 113940 16

Imported LCV 101409 112334 92082 89945 82126 (9) 91981 12

LCV 251129 270920 221481 188723 180350 (4) 205921 14


Domestic LV 305354 338074 276003 245906 255573 4 287024 12

Imported LV 455559 526365 501758 607472 512108 (16) 573561 12

LV 760913 864439 777761 853378 767681 (10) 860585 12




confidence levels


--------------------- EVEBITDA --------------------- --------------------------- PE ---------------------------


(x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x)

































Automobiles 5 178 172 98 137 118 99 43 39 31 46 36 42 10 10 09 241 237 350

DOAS 1440 1500 4 BUY 141 125 102 123 108 94 28 28 24 69 69 52 07 07 06 195 224 254

FROTO 3225 3320 3 HOLD 176 247 144 167 153 98 51 45 38 27 18 25 12 12 09 303 194 287

TOASO 1745 1880 8 BUY 201 150 74 118 98 102 46 39 29 55 40 55 11 12 12 219 281 449
































(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

Europe


AF FP 27 40 neg 119 49 49 34 28 (2) 1 2 7 9 11




Easyjet - UK EZJ LN 102 (09) 142 132 120 84 79 70 10 11 11 15 16 17

Average 528 04 151 121 94 69 57 50 5 7 8 13 15 16

Americas




Average 127 25 113 149 115 87 76 71 4 6 7 15 17 19

Asia












Average 648 49 nm 125 96 100 67 61 (1) 3 4 11 15 16

All Average 28 141 123 103 84 66 59 1 4 5 12 16 16








Airlines 7 224 85 91 95 86 74 20 16 13 11 00 00 13 11 11 104 208 153

THYAO 971 1030 6 BUY 212 80 85 95 87 74 19 15 12 13 00 00 12 11 11 102 207 154

PGSUS 3185 3670 15 BUY 345 122 145 92 85 70 28 24 19 00 00 00 16 11 09 128 213 149


































further details




(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

AMERICAS




Average 31 93 91 88 60 68 57 1 1 2 17 14 16

ASIA







Average 30 95 102 93 61 58 59 5 6 6 16 17 17

EUROPE




Average 60 129 105 102 81 69 61 3 4 5 9 10 11

All average 38 180 106 111 70 67 59 34 44 50 14 14 15














EREGL 483 423 (12) HOLD 184 103 130 103 74 83 20 18 18 31 49 73 20 16 17 117 185 139

KOZAA 166 201 21 BUY 31 66 72 17 41 60 05 05 04 00 00 00 09 16 22 161 71 60

KOZAL 1800 1860 3 HOLD 57 101 109 24 37 36 16 15 13 46 53 30 15 18 17 306 150 128

KRDMD 206 238 16 BUY 160 47 44 85 57 53 13 10 08 00 00 00 16 15 13 84 245 209








Top preferences









high on Halk










































































medium to long term





























starting from 2016

















discount channel











three years















APPENDIX









NA NA NA



company



NA NA NA NA




































983345

r983345

m Menkul Değ

erler AŞ



















Buy 345 Buy 870

Hold 253 Hold 430












neutral






BIMAS 4970 5700 15 BUY 365 337 257 243 217 170 151 129 105 15 19 21 12 10 08 460 414 451

BIZIM 1875 1970 5 HOLD 188 339 286 147 144 132 55 51 46 17 17 14 03 03 03 310 157 171

MGROS 2375 2410 1 HOLD na 367 271 160 139 116 51 45 38 00 00 00 09 07 06 (443) 130 152

Food amp Bev 12 na 285 218 na 156 127 24 23 21 16 12 11 27 24 20 24 82 101

Beverages 17 na 345 223 na 151 124 20 19 18 16 09 07 28 25 21 08 56 82

AEFES 2185 2450 12 HOLD na 327 210 na 151 123 14 13 12 23 10 08 28 25 21 321 41 61

CCOLA 4980 6200 24 BUY na 372 242 174 152 126 49 45 39 06 08 05 28 25 21 211 126 172


Real estate












2013







7

8

9

10

11

12

13

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4



4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

90000

139000

188000

237000

286000

335000

1 Q 0 8

3 Q 0 8

1 Q 0 9

3 Q 0 9

1 Q 1 0

3 Q 1 0

1 Q 1 1

3 Q 1 1

1 Q 1 2

3 Q 1 2

1 Q 1 3

3 Q 1 3

1 Q 1 4

3 Q 1 4






























26

30

34

38

42

46

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

J a n

- 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y

- 1 3

J u

l - 1 3

S e p

- 1 3

N o v

- 1 3

J a n

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y

- 1 4

J u

l - 1 4

S e p

- 1 4

N o v

- 1 4



26

30

34

38

42

46

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n

- 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y

- 1 3

J u

l - 1 3

S e p

- 1 3

N o v

- 1 3

J a n

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y

- 1 4

J u

l - 1 4

S e p

- 1 4

N o v

- 1 4



8

9

10

11

12

13

65

70

75

80

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4



8

9

10

11

12

13

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4




























8

9

10

11

12

13

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n - 1 3

F e b - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

A u g - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4


8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16


()






2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Change 2015E Change


Total market

Domestic PC 155634 179488 146604 147128 157349 7 173084 10

Imported PC 354150 414031 409676 517527 429982 (17) 481580 12

PC 509784 593519 556280 664655 587331 (12) 654664 11

Domestic LCV 149720 158586 129399 98778 98224 (1) 113940 16

Imported LCV 101409 112334 92082 89945 82126 (9) 91981 12

LCV 251129 270920 221481 188723 180350 (4) 205921 14


Domestic LV 305354 338074 276003 245906 255573 4 287024 12

Imported LV 455559 526365 501758 607472 512108 (16) 573561 12

LV 760913 864439 777761 853378 767681 (10) 860585 12




confidence levels


--------------------- EVEBITDA --------------------- --------------------------- PE ---------------------------


(x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x)

































Automobiles 5 178 172 98 137 118 99 43 39 31 46 36 42 10 10 09 241 237 350

DOAS 1440 1500 4 BUY 141 125 102 123 108 94 28 28 24 69 69 52 07 07 06 195 224 254

FROTO 3225 3320 3 HOLD 176 247 144 167 153 98 51 45 38 27 18 25 12 12 09 303 194 287

TOASO 1745 1880 8 BUY 201 150 74 118 98 102 46 39 29 55 40 55 11 12 12 219 281 449
































(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

Europe


AF FP 27 40 neg 119 49 49 34 28 (2) 1 2 7 9 11




Easyjet - UK EZJ LN 102 (09) 142 132 120 84 79 70 10 11 11 15 16 17

Average 528 04 151 121 94 69 57 50 5 7 8 13 15 16

Americas




Average 127 25 113 149 115 87 76 71 4 6 7 15 17 19

Asia












Average 648 49 nm 125 96 100 67 61 (1) 3 4 11 15 16

All Average 28 141 123 103 84 66 59 1 4 5 12 16 16








Airlines 7 224 85 91 95 86 74 20 16 13 11 00 00 13 11 11 104 208 153

THYAO 971 1030 6 BUY 212 80 85 95 87 74 19 15 12 13 00 00 12 11 11 102 207 154

PGSUS 3185 3670 15 BUY 345 122 145 92 85 70 28 24 19 00 00 00 16 11 09 128 213 149


































further details




(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

AMERICAS




Average 31 93 91 88 60 68 57 1 1 2 17 14 16

ASIA







Average 30 95 102 93 61 58 59 5 6 6 16 17 17

EUROPE




Average 60 129 105 102 81 69 61 3 4 5 9 10 11

All average 38 180 106 111 70 67 59 34 44 50 14 14 15














EREGL 483 423 (12) HOLD 184 103 130 103 74 83 20 18 18 31 49 73 20 16 17 117 185 139

KOZAA 166 201 21 BUY 31 66 72 17 41 60 05 05 04 00 00 00 09 16 22 161 71 60

KOZAL 1800 1860 3 HOLD 57 101 109 24 37 36 16 15 13 46 53 30 15 18 17 306 150 128

KRDMD 206 238 16 BUY 160 47 44 85 57 53 13 10 08 00 00 00 16 15 13 84 245 209








Top preferences









high on Halk










































































medium to long term





























starting from 2016

















discount channel











three years















APPENDIX









NA NA NA



company



NA NA NA NA




































983345

r983345

m Menkul Değ

erler AŞ



















Buy 345 Buy 870

Hold 253 Hold 430































26

30

34

38

42

46

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

J a n

- 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y

- 1 3

J u

l - 1 3

S e p

- 1 3

N o v

- 1 3

J a n

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y

- 1 4

J u

l - 1 4

S e p

- 1 4

N o v

- 1 4



26

30

34

38

42

46

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n

- 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y

- 1 3

J u

l - 1 3

S e p

- 1 3

N o v

- 1 3

J a n

- 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y

- 1 4

J u

l - 1 4

S e p

- 1 4

N o v

- 1 4



8

9

10

11

12

13

65

70

75

80

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4



8

9

10

11

12

13

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

J a n - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

N o v - 1 4




























8

9

10

11

12

13

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n - 1 3

F e b - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

A u g - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4


8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16


()






2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Change 2015E Change


Total market

Domestic PC 155634 179488 146604 147128 157349 7 173084 10

Imported PC 354150 414031 409676 517527 429982 (17) 481580 12

PC 509784 593519 556280 664655 587331 (12) 654664 11

Domestic LCV 149720 158586 129399 98778 98224 (1) 113940 16

Imported LCV 101409 112334 92082 89945 82126 (9) 91981 12

LCV 251129 270920 221481 188723 180350 (4) 205921 14


Domestic LV 305354 338074 276003 245906 255573 4 287024 12

Imported LV 455559 526365 501758 607472 512108 (16) 573561 12

LV 760913 864439 777761 853378 767681 (10) 860585 12




confidence levels


--------------------- EVEBITDA --------------------- --------------------------- PE ---------------------------


(x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x)

































Automobiles 5 178 172 98 137 118 99 43 39 31 46 36 42 10 10 09 241 237 350

DOAS 1440 1500 4 BUY 141 125 102 123 108 94 28 28 24 69 69 52 07 07 06 195 224 254

FROTO 3225 3320 3 HOLD 176 247 144 167 153 98 51 45 38 27 18 25 12 12 09 303 194 287

TOASO 1745 1880 8 BUY 201 150 74 118 98 102 46 39 29 55 40 55 11 12 12 219 281 449
































(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

Europe


AF FP 27 40 neg 119 49 49 34 28 (2) 1 2 7 9 11




Easyjet - UK EZJ LN 102 (09) 142 132 120 84 79 70 10 11 11 15 16 17

Average 528 04 151 121 94 69 57 50 5 7 8 13 15 16

Americas




Average 127 25 113 149 115 87 76 71 4 6 7 15 17 19

Asia












Average 648 49 nm 125 96 100 67 61 (1) 3 4 11 15 16

All Average 28 141 123 103 84 66 59 1 4 5 12 16 16








Airlines 7 224 85 91 95 86 74 20 16 13 11 00 00 13 11 11 104 208 153

THYAO 971 1030 6 BUY 212 80 85 95 87 74 19 15 12 13 00 00 12 11 11 102 207 154

PGSUS 3185 3670 15 BUY 345 122 145 92 85 70 28 24 19 00 00 00 16 11 09 128 213 149


































further details




(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

AMERICAS




Average 31 93 91 88 60 68 57 1 1 2 17 14 16

ASIA







Average 30 95 102 93 61 58 59 5 6 6 16 17 17

EUROPE




Average 60 129 105 102 81 69 61 3 4 5 9 10 11

All average 38 180 106 111 70 67 59 34 44 50 14 14 15














EREGL 483 423 (12) HOLD 184 103 130 103 74 83 20 18 18 31 49 73 20 16 17 117 185 139

KOZAA 166 201 21 BUY 31 66 72 17 41 60 05 05 04 00 00 00 09 16 22 161 71 60

KOZAL 1800 1860 3 HOLD 57 101 109 24 37 36 16 15 13 46 53 30 15 18 17 306 150 128

KRDMD 206 238 16 BUY 160 47 44 85 57 53 13 10 08 00 00 00 16 15 13 84 245 209








Top preferences









high on Halk










































































medium to long term





























starting from 2016

















discount channel











three years















APPENDIX









NA NA NA



company



NA NA NA NA




































983345

r983345

m Menkul Değ

erler AŞ



















Buy 345 Buy 870

Hold 253 Hold 430





























8

9

10

11

12

13

75000

85000

95000

105000

115000

125000

135000

J a n - 1 3

F e b - 1 3

M a r - 1 3

A p r - 1 3

M a y - 1 3

J u n - 1 3

J u l - 1 3

A u g - 1 3

S e p - 1 3

O c t - 1 3

N o v - 1 3

D e c - 1 3

J a n - 1 4

F e b - 1 4

M a r - 1 4

A p r - 1 4

M a y - 1 4

J u n - 1 4

J u l - 1 4

A u g - 1 4

S e p - 1 4

O c t - 1 4

N o v - 1 4

D e c - 1 4


8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16


()






2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Change 2015E Change


Total market

Domestic PC 155634 179488 146604 147128 157349 7 173084 10

Imported PC 354150 414031 409676 517527 429982 (17) 481580 12

PC 509784 593519 556280 664655 587331 (12) 654664 11

Domestic LCV 149720 158586 129399 98778 98224 (1) 113940 16

Imported LCV 101409 112334 92082 89945 82126 (9) 91981 12

LCV 251129 270920 221481 188723 180350 (4) 205921 14


Domestic LV 305354 338074 276003 245906 255573 4 287024 12

Imported LV 455559 526365 501758 607472 512108 (16) 573561 12

LV 760913 864439 777761 853378 767681 (10) 860585 12




confidence levels


--------------------- EVEBITDA --------------------- --------------------------- PE ---------------------------


(x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x)

































Automobiles 5 178 172 98 137 118 99 43 39 31 46 36 42 10 10 09 241 237 350

DOAS 1440 1500 4 BUY 141 125 102 123 108 94 28 28 24 69 69 52 07 07 06 195 224 254

FROTO 3225 3320 3 HOLD 176 247 144 167 153 98 51 45 38 27 18 25 12 12 09 303 194 287

TOASO 1745 1880 8 BUY 201 150 74 118 98 102 46 39 29 55 40 55 11 12 12 219 281 449
































(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

Europe


AF FP 27 40 neg 119 49 49 34 28 (2) 1 2 7 9 11




Easyjet - UK EZJ LN 102 (09) 142 132 120 84 79 70 10 11 11 15 16 17

Average 528 04 151 121 94 69 57 50 5 7 8 13 15 16

Americas




Average 127 25 113 149 115 87 76 71 4 6 7 15 17 19

Asia












Average 648 49 nm 125 96 100 67 61 (1) 3 4 11 15 16

All Average 28 141 123 103 84 66 59 1 4 5 12 16 16








Airlines 7 224 85 91 95 86 74 20 16 13 11 00 00 13 11 11 104 208 153

THYAO 971 1030 6 BUY 212 80 85 95 87 74 19 15 12 13 00 00 12 11 11 102 207 154

PGSUS 3185 3670 15 BUY 345 122 145 92 85 70 28 24 19 00 00 00 16 11 09 128 213 149


































further details




(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

AMERICAS




Average 31 93 91 88 60 68 57 1 1 2 17 14 16

ASIA







Average 30 95 102 93 61 58 59 5 6 6 16 17 17

EUROPE




Average 60 129 105 102 81 69 61 3 4 5 9 10 11

All average 38 180 106 111 70 67 59 34 44 50 14 14 15














EREGL 483 423 (12) HOLD 184 103 130 103 74 83 20 18 18 31 49 73 20 16 17 117 185 139

KOZAA 166 201 21 BUY 31 66 72 17 41 60 05 05 04 00 00 00 09 16 22 161 71 60

KOZAL 1800 1860 3 HOLD 57 101 109 24 37 36 16 15 13 46 53 30 15 18 17 306 150 128

KRDMD 206 238 16 BUY 160 47 44 85 57 53 13 10 08 00 00 00 16 15 13 84 245 209








Top preferences









high on Halk










































































medium to long term





























starting from 2016

















discount channel











three years















APPENDIX









NA NA NA



company



NA NA NA NA




































983345

r983345

m Menkul Değ

erler AŞ



















Buy 345 Buy 870

Hold 253 Hold 430









2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Change 2015E Change


Total market

Domestic PC 155634 179488 146604 147128 157349 7 173084 10

Imported PC 354150 414031 409676 517527 429982 (17) 481580 12

PC 509784 593519 556280 664655 587331 (12) 654664 11

Domestic LCV 149720 158586 129399 98778 98224 (1) 113940 16

Imported LCV 101409 112334 92082 89945 82126 (9) 91981 12

LCV 251129 270920 221481 188723 180350 (4) 205921 14


Domestic LV 305354 338074 276003 245906 255573 4 287024 12

Imported LV 455559 526365 501758 607472 512108 (16) 573561 12

LV 760913 864439 777761 853378 767681 (10) 860585 12




confidence levels


--------------------- EVEBITDA --------------------- --------------------------- PE ---------------------------


(x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x)

































Automobiles 5 178 172 98 137 118 99 43 39 31 46 36 42 10 10 09 241 237 350

DOAS 1440 1500 4 BUY 141 125 102 123 108 94 28 28 24 69 69 52 07 07 06 195 224 254

FROTO 3225 3320 3 HOLD 176 247 144 167 153 98 51 45 38 27 18 25 12 12 09 303 194 287

TOASO 1745 1880 8 BUY 201 150 74 118 98 102 46 39 29 55 40 55 11 12 12 219 281 449
































(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

Europe


AF FP 27 40 neg 119 49 49 34 28 (2) 1 2 7 9 11




Easyjet - UK EZJ LN 102 (09) 142 132 120 84 79 70 10 11 11 15 16 17

Average 528 04 151 121 94 69 57 50 5 7 8 13 15 16

Americas




Average 127 25 113 149 115 87 76 71 4 6 7 15 17 19

Asia












Average 648 49 nm 125 96 100 67 61 (1) 3 4 11 15 16

All Average 28 141 123 103 84 66 59 1 4 5 12 16 16








Airlines 7 224 85 91 95 86 74 20 16 13 11 00 00 13 11 11 104 208 153

THYAO 971 1030 6 BUY 212 80 85 95 87 74 19 15 12 13 00 00 12 11 11 102 207 154

PGSUS 3185 3670 15 BUY 345 122 145 92 85 70 28 24 19 00 00 00 16 11 09 128 213 149


































further details




(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

AMERICAS




Average 31 93 91 88 60 68 57 1 1 2 17 14 16

ASIA







Average 30 95 102 93 61 58 59 5 6 6 16 17 17

EUROPE




Average 60 129 105 102 81 69 61 3 4 5 9 10 11

All average 38 180 106 111 70 67 59 34 44 50 14 14 15














EREGL 483 423 (12) HOLD 184 103 130 103 74 83 20 18 18 31 49 73 20 16 17 117 185 139

KOZAA 166 201 21 BUY 31 66 72 17 41 60 05 05 04 00 00 00 09 16 22 161 71 60

KOZAL 1800 1860 3 HOLD 57 101 109 24 37 36 16 15 13 46 53 30 15 18 17 306 150 128

KRDMD 206 238 16 BUY 160 47 44 85 57 53 13 10 08 00 00 00 16 15 13 84 245 209








Top preferences









high on Halk










































































medium to long term





























starting from 2016

















discount channel











three years















APPENDIX









NA NA NA



company



NA NA NA NA




































983345

r983345

m Menkul Değ

erler AŞ



















Buy 345 Buy 870

Hold 253 Hold 430












Automobiles 5 178 172 98 137 118 99 43 39 31 46 36 42 10 10 09 241 237 350

DOAS 1440 1500 4 BUY 141 125 102 123 108 94 28 28 24 69 69 52 07 07 06 195 224 254

FROTO 3225 3320 3 HOLD 176 247 144 167 153 98 51 45 38 27 18 25 12 12 09 303 194 287

TOASO 1745 1880 8 BUY 201 150 74 118 98 102 46 39 29 55 40 55 11 12 12 219 281 449
































(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

Europe


AF FP 27 40 neg 119 49 49 34 28 (2) 1 2 7 9 11




Easyjet - UK EZJ LN 102 (09) 142 132 120 84 79 70 10 11 11 15 16 17

Average 528 04 151 121 94 69 57 50 5 7 8 13 15 16

Americas




Average 127 25 113 149 115 87 76 71 4 6 7 15 17 19

Asia












Average 648 49 nm 125 96 100 67 61 (1) 3 4 11 15 16

All Average 28 141 123 103 84 66 59 1 4 5 12 16 16








Airlines 7 224 85 91 95 86 74 20 16 13 11 00 00 13 11 11 104 208 153

THYAO 971 1030 6 BUY 212 80 85 95 87 74 19 15 12 13 00 00 12 11 11 102 207 154

PGSUS 3185 3670 15 BUY 345 122 145 92 85 70 28 24 19 00 00 00 16 11 09 128 213 149


































further details




(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

AMERICAS




Average 31 93 91 88 60 68 57 1 1 2 17 14 16

ASIA







Average 30 95 102 93 61 58 59 5 6 6 16 17 17

EUROPE




Average 60 129 105 102 81 69 61 3 4 5 9 10 11

All average 38 180 106 111 70 67 59 34 44 50 14 14 15














EREGL 483 423 (12) HOLD 184 103 130 103 74 83 20 18 18 31 49 73 20 16 17 117 185 139

KOZAA 166 201 21 BUY 31 66 72 17 41 60 05 05 04 00 00 00 09 16 22 161 71 60

KOZAL 1800 1860 3 HOLD 57 101 109 24 37 36 16 15 13 46 53 30 15 18 17 306 150 128

KRDMD 206 238 16 BUY 160 47 44 85 57 53 13 10 08 00 00 00 16 15 13 84 245 209








Top preferences









high on Halk










































































medium to long term





























starting from 2016

















discount channel











three years















APPENDIX









NA NA NA



company



NA NA NA NA




































983345

r983345

m Menkul Değ

erler AŞ



















Buy 345 Buy 870

Hold 253 Hold 430












(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

Europe


AF FP 27 40 neg 119 49 49 34 28 (2) 1 2 7 9 11




Easyjet - UK EZJ LN 102 (09) 142 132 120 84 79 70 10 11 11 15 16 17

Average 528 04 151 121 94 69 57 50 5 7 8 13 15 16

Americas




Average 127 25 113 149 115 87 76 71 4 6 7 15 17 19

Asia












Average 648 49 nm 125 96 100 67 61 (1) 3 4 11 15 16

All Average 28 141 123 103 84 66 59 1 4 5 12 16 16








Airlines 7 224 85 91 95 86 74 20 16 13 11 00 00 13 11 11 104 208 153

THYAO 971 1030 6 BUY 212 80 85 95 87 74 19 15 12 13 00 00 12 11 11 102 207 154

PGSUS 3185 3670 15 BUY 345 122 145 92 85 70 28 24 19 00 00 00 16 11 09 128 213 149


































further details




(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

AMERICAS




Average 31 93 91 88 60 68 57 1 1 2 17 14 16

ASIA







Average 30 95 102 93 61 58 59 5 6 6 16 17 17

EUROPE




Average 60 129 105 102 81 69 61 3 4 5 9 10 11

All average 38 180 106 111 70 67 59 34 44 50 14 14 15














EREGL 483 423 (12) HOLD 184 103 130 103 74 83 20 18 18 31 49 73 20 16 17 117 185 139

KOZAA 166 201 21 BUY 31 66 72 17 41 60 05 05 04 00 00 00 09 16 22 161 71 60

KOZAL 1800 1860 3 HOLD 57 101 109 24 37 36 16 15 13 46 53 30 15 18 17 306 150 128

KRDMD 206 238 16 BUY 160 47 44 85 57 53 13 10 08 00 00 00 16 15 13 84 245 209








Top preferences









high on Halk










































































medium to long term





























starting from 2016

















discount channel











three years















APPENDIX









NA NA NA



company



NA NA NA NA




































983345

r983345

m Menkul Değ

erler AŞ



















Buy 345 Buy 870

Hold 253 Hold 430



























further details




(USD b) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) (x) () () () () () ()

AMERICAS




Average 31 93 91 88 60 68 57 1 1 2 17 14 16

ASIA







Average 30 95 102 93 61 58 59 5 6 6 16 17 17

EUROPE




Average 60 129 105 102 81 69 61 3 4 5 9 10 11

All average 38 180 106 111 70 67 59 34 44 50 14 14 15














EREGL 483 423 (12) HOLD 184 103 130 103 74 83 20 18 18 31 49 73 20 16 17 117 185 139

KOZAA 166 201 21 BUY 31 66 72 17 41 60 05 05 04 00 00 00 09 16 22 161 71 60

KOZAL 1800 1860 3 HOLD 57 101 109 24 37 36 16 15 13 46 53 30 15 18 17 306 150 128

KRDMD 206 238 16 BUY 160 47 44 85 57 53 13 10 08 00 00 00 16 15 13 84 245 209








Top preferences









high on Halk










































































medium to long term





























starting from 2016

















discount channel











three years















APPENDIX









NA NA NA



company



NA NA NA NA




































983345

r983345

m Menkul Değ

erler AŞ



















Buy 345 Buy 870

Hold 253 Hold 430













EREGL 483 423 (12) HOLD 184 103 130 103 74 83 20 18 18 31 49 73 20 16 17 117 185 139

KOZAA 166 201 21 BUY 31 66 72 17 41 60 05 05 04 00 00 00 09 16 22 161 71 60

KOZAL 1800 1860 3 HOLD 57 101 109 24 37 36 16 15 13 46 53 30 15 18 17 306 150 128

KRDMD 206 238 16 BUY 160 47 44 85 57 53 13 10 08 00 00 00 16 15 13 84 245 209








Top preferences









high on Halk










































































medium to long term





























starting from 2016

















discount channel











three years















APPENDIX









NA NA NA



company



NA NA NA NA




































983345

r983345

m Menkul Değ

erler AŞ



















Buy 345 Buy 870

Hold 253 Hold 430









Top preferences









high on Halk










































































medium to long term





























starting from 2016

















discount channel











three years















APPENDIX









NA NA NA



company



NA NA NA NA




































983345

r983345

m Menkul Değ

erler AŞ



















Buy 345 Buy 870

Hold 253 Hold 430









































medium to long term





























starting from 2016

















discount channel











three years















APPENDIX









NA NA NA



company



NA NA NA NA




































983345

r983345

m Menkul Değ

erler AŞ



















Buy 345 Buy 870

Hold 253 Hold 430

















starting from 2016

















discount channel











three years















APPENDIX









NA NA NA



company



NA NA NA NA




































983345

r983345

m Menkul Değ

erler AŞ



















Buy 345 Buy 870

Hold 253 Hold 430











APPENDIX









NA NA NA



company



NA NA NA NA




































983345

r983345

m Menkul Değ

erler AŞ



















Buy 345 Buy 870

Hold 253 Hold 430









APPENDIX









NA NA NA



company



NA NA NA NA




































983345

r983345

m Menkul Değ

erler AŞ



















Buy 345 Buy 870

Hold 253 Hold 430































983345

r983345

m Menkul Değ

erler AŞ



















Buy 345 Buy 870

Hold 253 Hold 430













983345

r983345

m Menkul Değ

erler AŞ



















Buy 345 Buy 870

Hold 253 Hold 430









Buy 345 Buy 870

Hold 253 Hold 430




Documents

Turkey Strategy 280115