Understanding our Nuclear Future -

Global Growth in Nuclear Power Raymond James 2007 Uranium Conference

by

Milton Caplan, President,

Dr. Terry Thompson, Senior Advisor

MZConsulting Inc

2007 May 8

2

Outline

• Uranium and its use• Nuclear New Build• Nuclear Characteristics

– Performance– Project schedules– Economics

• Alternative Fuel Cycles• Future Projections

3

The World of Uranium

• Spot price hits $113/lb, breaking through $100 as expected

• “It could quite conceivably get to $150 a pound before the end of this year “

• Thomas Neff says “Nuclear Plans may Stall on Uranium Shortage”

• “China is finding it hard to get enough uranium to fuel nuclear plants”

Understanding Uranium Demand

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Uranium Energy

• Highly energy intensive source of energy

Uranium Pellet

Coal

7 grams (.24 oz) 1,780 lbs

(or 17,000 cu ft of gas)

=

5

Only with Nuclear Power

• Need a nuclear power plant to realize this energy

6

Uranium – without Nuclear Power

It’s nothing but a rock!!

Demand for Uranium is a direct function of the number of nuclear plants in operation and their performance

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The Global Nuclear Fleet

• 435 reactors in operation• 30 countries• Producing

– 368 GWe– 16% of global electricity

• Burning 66,500 tonnes of uranium/year• 1,000 MW reactor uses about 230 tonnes/ year• 28 units under construction, 64 planned and 158

proposedSource: WNA

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Uranium Supply and Demand

Understanding Future Demand means understanding Nuclear Growth

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Potential for GrowthThe Stars are Aligned!!

• Finland constructs Olkiluoto 3• France to build at Flamanville• UK considers new nuclear• Germany to do energy review• Sweden supports ongoing

nuclear operations• China planning a fivefold

increase in nuclear power by 2020

• Russia planning to play a major role in nuclear power construction

• Canada commits to nuclear• US supports nuclear energy• G8 supports nuclear power

as part of the mix• Nuclear power is part of

Australia’s future• Bush reopens nuclear

cooperation with India• Environmentalists now

supportive

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Why Nuclear?

• Environmental – Climate Change continues to move up the political agenda and nuclear emits no GHGs

• Security of Supply

• Economics

• Excellent performance of existing fleet

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What are the Alternatives?

• Fossil fuels falling from favour– Coal is dirty, new clean coal technology under

development– Gas prices volatile and increasing

• Renewables increasing in use – Acceptance that it can’t do it all

• Nuclear is the only large scale generation option available for baseload (24/7) requirements

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Hype vs. Reality

Understanding nuclear characteristics that lead to growth

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Global Forecasts

• WNA base case predicts 542 GW by 2030 with a high case of 740 GW

• IEA World Energy Outlook (WEO) predicts a more modest 416 GW in its reference case and 519 GW in it alternative scenario

• USA– applications for COL for 33 or more new reactors.

– EIA Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) assume 12.5 GW to be built by 2030

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Nuclear PerformanceCapacity Factors

Source: WANO

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Performance

• Capacity Factors in the US consistent at ~90%

• WEO assumes that capacity factors will improve from global average of 85% in 2005 to 91% in 2030

Performance has peaked and no further improvements are likely

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Project Schedule

• Nuclear plants are capital intensive projects

• Schedules are long relative to alternatives

• Planning can take from 3-5 years

• Construction can take from 5-8 years

• Total schedule anywhere from 8 to 13 years

There are no surprise increases in demand

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Economics

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Nuclearhigh

Nuclearlow

CCGT Coalsteam

IGCC Windonshore

US c

ents

per

kW

h

Capital Operation and maintenance Fuel

Source: IEA WEO 2006

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Competitiveness of Nuclear

Source: IEA WEO 2006

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Impact of 50% increase in Fuel Costs

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Nuclear IGCC Coal steam CCGT

incr

ease

in g

ener

atin

g co

st

Source: IEA WEO 2006

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Fuel Cost is Important

• Operational Costs ~ 1.7 cents/kWh

• Fuel Costs ~ .4 cents/kWh– Uranium cost ~ .1 cents/kWh– At uranium price of $10/lb– At uranium price of $100/lb– Uranium cost ~1 cent/kWh

• Total Operational Cost ~2.6 cents/kWh

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Alternative Fuel Cycles

• Today thermal reactors (US, Canada, Sweden, Finland, Spain, South Africa) use a “once through” or “open” fuel cycle

• Only about 0.7% of the uranium mined is used• Some countries (Japan and Western Europe) have

started to recycle and use MOX (uranium and plutonium oxide) fuel– Typically reactors can use MOX for 1/3 of their core

• US GNEP Program

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Longer Term Fuel Use

• Fast reactors consume virtually all uranium mined• 100 times more efficient than thermal reactors

– Best for burning plutonium– Thorium cycle (India leading)

• At any price, fuel is cheap• With fast reactors, uranium as a fuel is

inexhaustible

Only nuclear power can replace fossil fuels in the long term

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Demand Forecast

740 Gwe

542 Gwe

519 Gwe (WEO Alt)

368 Gwe

416 Gwe (WEO Ref)

Dashed lines – 2003 report

Stable until 2020

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Summary• Uranium needs nuclear power

• Demand is predictable in the short to medium term

• Nuclear renaissance has just begun

• Long term demand is more uncertain

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And so……

The future is bright as Nuclear Power remains the only emissions

free large scale form of electricity production

Thank You

Milton CaplanMZConsulting Incmzconsulting@rogers.comwww.mzconsultinginc.com+1.647.271.4442