#LCV2019 @LCV_Event

Understanding the future market for Electric

Vehicles: Results from a real-world trial with

mainstream consumersDr Neale Kinnear

Head of Behavioural Science – TRL

LCV2019 Event Sponsor:

Understanding the future market for Electric Vehicles:Results from a real-world trial with mainstream consumers

Dr Neale Kinnear

TRL

What is the Consumers, Vehicles and Energy Integration project?

Cross-industry consortium led by TRL

Innovative and ambitious project

commissioned by the Energy Technologies

Institute (ETI)

Aims

Address challenges and identify opportunities in transitioning to

low-carbon vehicles

Examine integration of vehicles with

energy supply system

Help inform government policy

and industry products

Integration of modelling tools

1.Mainstream Consumer BEV adoption

2.Mainstream Consumer PHEV adoption

3.Mainstream Consumer charging behaviour

4.Mainstream Consumer response to managed charging

5.EV adoption and consideration of managed charging by fleets

Knowledge gaps addressed by CVEI

+1 s.d. +2 s.d.-1 s.d.-2 s.d.

Time (years)

mean

No

rma

lise

d a

do

ptio

n r

ate

Laggards

Late

majorityEarly

majority

Early

adopters

Innovators

Time

Mainstream consumers (i.e. the mass-market)

What did we do?

Consumer Charging Trials

Fleet research

Data analysis

Update modelling tools

Policy and market recommendations

Reporting and disseminationPHEV trial

BEV trial

Consumer Uptake Trial

Consumer Uptake Trial

World’s first trials of BEVs and PHEVs exploring mainstream consumer adoption

Uptake trial - Overview

Likelihood to choose a BEV or PHEV in the next 5 years

Reported likelihood to choose a BEV or PHEV

• ~25% likely to choose a BEV as a main car

• ~50% likely to choose BEV as second car

• ~50% likely to choose PHEV, as either main or second car

• Positive outlook for the market in the near term

What can we do to encourage the market?

Barriers to adoption

Range

Purchase price

Depreciation

Vehicle

performance

Public charging

infrastructure

Charging

time Incentives

Consumer

attitudes

200mi BEVs appeal to 50% consumers; 300mi BEVs appeal to 90%. Lower ranges appeal as second cars

➢ Vehicle models improving, but more choice needed to appeal to majority

▪ Jaguar I-PACE: 292 miles

▪ Kie E-Niro: 282 miles

▪ Hyundai Kona 64kWh: 279 miles

▪ Audi e-tron: 241 miles

▪ Nissan Leaf 62kWh: 239 miles

▪ BMW i3: 193 miles

▪ VW e-golf: 186 miles

▪ Renault Zoe: 186 miles

▪ Tesla Model S Long Range: 375

miles

▪ Tesla Model 3 Long Range: 384

miles

▪ Tesla Model X Long Range: 315

miles

Source: WLTP -

https://www.carmagazine.co.uk/electri

c/longest-range-electric-cars-ev/

PHEV range is also important: 50mi PHEVs appeal to 50% of consumers; 100mi PHEVs appeal to 90%.

➢ Majority PHEV models around 30mi AER – improvements will

increase appeal

• Hyundai Ioniq PHEV: 39 miles

• Toyota Prius Plug-in: 39 miles

• Kia Niro PHEV: 36 miles

• Mercedes-Benz E300e: 31 miles

• VW Golf GTE: 31 miles

• VW Passat GTE: 31 miles

• Mitsubishi Outlander: 28 miles

• Volvo XC60 PHEV: 29 miles

• Volvo V90 PHEV: 29 miles

• BMW 330e: 25 miles

Source: nextgreencar.com

What can we do to encourage the market?

Barriers to adoption

Range

Purchase price

Depreciation

Vehicle

performance

Public charging

infrastructure

Charging

time Incentives

Consumer

attitudes

• Experience with EVs had a material effect on likelihood to purchase

• Opinions were polarised

• Experience matters; most positive shifts for BEVs as second car

• This is important for understanding likely EVmarket in next 5 years

Proportion of consumers who became more or less likely to purchase EVs after experience

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

BEV as main car BEV as second car PHEV as main car PHEV as second car

Less likely to adopt

More likely to adopt

Experience with EVs matters

Further work required to understand consumer motivations

What can we do to encourage the market?

Barriers to adoption

Range

Purchase price

Depreciation

Vehicle

performance

Public charging

infrastructure

Charging

time Incentives

Consumer

attitudes

7.2 kW home chargers provide charge times broadly acceptable for mass-market

9.7

6

3

0.5

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Mode 2 (2.3kW) Mode 3 (3.6kW) Mode 3 (7.2 kW) Mode 4 (50kW DC)

Esti

mat

ed c

har

ge t

ime

(ho

urs

) fo

r 1

00

mile

s o

f ra

nge

(V

W e

-Go

lf)

Charger type (charging rate)

▪ Important to consider compatibility of homes with 7.2kW chargers, including on-street charging

Mean acceptable charge time (BEV second car)

Mean acceptable charge time (BEV main car)

What can we do to encourage the market?

Barriers to adoption

Range

Purchase price

Depreciation

Vehicle

performance

Public charging

infrastructure

Charging

time Incentives

Consumer

attitudes

18%

11%

14%

12%

11%

6%

8%

4%

3%

19%

15%

16%

19%

13%

9%

7%

9%

5%

36%

28%

26%

31%

35%

27%

19%

21%

16%

20%

33%

32%

26%

28%

39%

45%

42%

38%

8%

13%

13%

14%

15%

21%

22%

25%

40%

Discounted access to public transport

Free access to low emission zones / clean air zones

Discounted access to hire cars (e.g. for longer journeys)

Free access to congestion charge zones

Permission to drive in bus lanes

A free chargepoint for my home

Access to free parking

Exemption from car tax (Vehicle Excise Duty)

A government grant towards purchase price

Very unlikely Fairly unlikely Neither likely nor unlikely Fairly likely Very likely

• Top 4 finance related; related to reducing cost of ownership

• Government grant rated as most important for adoption

Financial incentives have greatest impact on adoption

Proportion of consumers willing to adopt a BEV by incentive type

What can we do to encourage the market?

• Full details in the published Uptake Trial report

• “Deliverable D5.2”

https://trl.co.uk/consumers-vehicles-and-energy-integration-project-cvei

or

https://www.eti.co.uk/programmes/transport-ldv/consumers-vehicles-and-energy-integration-cvei

Summary

• Electrification of vehicle parc requires understanding mass market motivations

• Positive outlook in the next five years, but…

• Range ‘wants’ versus ‘needs’ must be addressed

• Barriers to adoption need to be managed (e.g. upfront cost, uncertainty, charging infrastructure)

• Providing positive experiences likely to be beneficial

• But deeper understanding of consumer motivations is necessary for EVs to appeal to all of the mass market in time to meet targets

Thank you for listening

Dr Neale Kinnear

Head of Behavioural Science

nkinnear@trl.co.uk

01344 77 0101

TRL | Crowthorne House | Nine Mile Ride | Wokingham

Berkshire | RG40 3GA | United Kingdom