Unit 3 Contested Planet Energy Security

8/2/2019 Unit 3 Contested Planet Energy Security

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6GEO3 Unit 3 Contested Planet

Energy Security


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What is this topic about?

Energy is fundamental to ourlives, and we often take it forgranted

This topic explores our energy

supply, and asks challengingquestions about it

Can we continue to rely onfossil fuels, or do we need aradical switch in energysources?

Energy is very closely linked toclimate change as fossil fuels(our main energy source) arethe main source of greenhousegas emissions.


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1. Energy supply, demand and

security

2. The impacts of energy insecurity

3. Energy security and the future

CONTENTS

Click on the information icon to jump to that section.

Click on the home button to return to this contents page


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1. Energy supply, demandand security

There are a wide range of energy resources, with different security ofsupply and environmental issues:

Non-renewable Renewable Recyclable

A finite stock of resources,which will run out

A flow of resources, whichis infinite in human terms

Can be used repeatedly, ifmanaged carefully

Coal, oil, gas (plus oil shale,tar sands, lignite etc.)

Wind, solar, hydroelectric,wave, tidal, geothermal

Biomass, nuclear (withreprocessing of fuel)

Significant environmental

impacts during extraction(oil wells, opencast mines)Greenhouse gas emissions

during use, and acidicemissions

May require large areas

(solar arrays, wind farms)for operation.NIMBY issues.

Limited / no greenhouseemissions.

Large land area needed

for biomass.Largely unresolvedissues of storing high

level radioactive waste.


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Life cycle analysis

Comparing the environmental impact of

different energy sources is a challenge Life cycle greenhouse emissions is one

approach

Even this does not account for NIMBY issues(e.g. windfarms), or the loss of ecosystemsand biodiversity linked to extraction offossil fuels

Some sources, such as nuclear and biomassare highly controversial and there isintense debate over their green

credentials.

Life cycle analysis accounts for

C02 emissions at all stages

of the energy supply chain, notsimply during use


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Access to energy

Direct access to fossil fuelreserves is a coincidence of

geological history andinternational boundaries.

Some countries find themselveswith more fossil fuel sourcesthan their needs

Others have none Reserves run down over time, as

is the gas with the UKs once

abundant North Sea oil and gas

Remaining oil and gas willincreasingly concentrate in the

Middle East over the next 30years.

Top 15 countries by oil, gas and coalreserves in 2008


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Access to renewables

Most renewable energy is constrained byphysical geography, and especially climate

This means its availability is place specific

The UK has significant renewable potential,especially wind, although it is a smallcountry with limited land area; most HEPsites are already used.

Many renewables are intermittent energysources, so energy must be stored (verycostly and technically difficult) or backedup by another source

Source Physical limitations

Wind Requires wind speeds of 8-25 mph

Solar PV Works best in areas of over 6 kwhper sq. metre per day

Biomass Requires large land area forfeedstock

HEP Suitable valleys i.e. long, deep andrelatively narrow, and predictable

water supply

UK renewable potential


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Access to energy

Which energy sources are used is not simply a matter of whichfossil fuels or renewable forms are available in a country

Other factors influence choice of energy sources

Cost is critical, as people are sensitive to energy sources

Nuclear power station construction ground to a standstill afterthe 1986 Chernobyl accident.

Technology

Technology is required to drill, mine, process etc, and is notavailable everywhere e.g. LDCs.

Attitudes

Public attitudes may be anti-nuclear, or NIMBYISM may block windturbines or dams.

Cost

While desirable, technologies like wave and hydrogen may be tooexpensive due to technical challenges.


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Energy poverty

Lack of access to energy resources is common in the developing world

Reliance of fuel wood, farm waste and dung is high and fossil fuel

consumption low Up to 40% of the worlds population rely on these sources as their

primary cooking and heating fuel

Close to 2 billion people have no access to electricity

Access to cheap, reliable energy is strongly related to development as

so much of modern life and industry depends on it.


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Demand

Global demand for energyhas risen dramatically,especially since the 1960s

Demand doubled between1960 and 1980

Growth in demand has beenslower since 1980, but isprojected to rise by up to

60% between 2002 and 2030and continue upward.

The BRIC countries, as wellas other large developingnations (Mexico, Indonesia)have contributed to much to

recent increases in demandand are likely to do so in thefuture.

Further industrialisationinevitably brings demands forcars and consumer goods, allof which need power.


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Security

Energy security depends ona number of factors (see

table) Countries with a diverse

energy mix are less at risk

than those relying on 1 or 2sources

Renewable potential couldbe used to offset decliningfossil fuel reserves orsupply interruptions

Reliance on long distanceinternational trade in fossil

fuels may be risky Demand and dependency

are important too, as it isdifficult to replace a largeamount of oil with anotherenergy source for instance

Domestic fossil

fuel reserves

Countries like Italy andJapan have few of their

own resources

Domestic renewable

potential

Small, crowded nations likeSingapore and South Korea

lack renewable potential

Domestic energy

mix

France relies heavily onnuclear power, and the

UK on gas.

Import pathway

risk

The UK imports gas fromRussia and Qatar, both long

distance pathways.


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2. The impacts of energy insecurity

Fossil fuel supply regions are

poorly matched with areas oflargest demand

This is especially true for oiland gas

Energy must flow along

internationalpathways fromproducer to consumer

These are either pipelines(oil and gas), bulk carriers(coal, uranium), LNG tankers(gas) or oil tankers.

Electricity is also exported /imported.

Pathways could bedisrupted, increasing energyinsecurity.

Pathwaydisruption

Price andpaymentdisputes Piracy e.g.

off theSomalicoast

Terrorism

or conflictclosingchokepoints

Politicaldiscord

betweensupplier

andconsumer

Diversion

of supply,perhaps

for ahigherprice

Technicalinterruptio

n toproduction

Producerssupplysimply

runs out

Naturaldisasters

e.g.hurricaneKatrina


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Risks of disruption

Gas pipeline disruption has already occurred, as disputes between Russiaand Ukraine disrupted European gas supplies in 2006 and 2009

Russia holds 25% of world gas reserves, the Middle East 40% (and 56% ofoil)

Disruption to narrow ocean choke points (see map) could seriously affectthe flow of oil

Countries close to some choke points are unstable (Iran, Somalia, Yemen)


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Risks of disruption

There are real risks if oil and gassupplies are disrupted.

Any potential disruption is headlinenews

So dependent are we on cheap,uninterrupted energy supplies thatdisruption could lead to:

1. Soaring energy costs and risingenergy poverty

2. Pressure on politicians to act;

possibly rationing energy

3. Civil disruption

4. Rising costs for industry, job lossesand recession

5. Unsound decisions (economically

and environmentally) to rapidly

develop alternative sources

6. Diplomatic conflict

UK energy disruption

Oct1973 Oil crisis; petrolrationing

Sept

2000

UK wide fuel protestsover price and tax

Aug

2005

Further UK protests;

Hurricane Katrinapushes oil prices higher

Aug

2008

Oil at $147 a barrel

Jan

2010

National Grid gas

balancing alerts areheadline news ; gassupply from Norwaydrops on technicalproblems


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Supply: new sources

As oil prices remain high, and fears of peak oil and gas increase the

search is on for new sources:

Example Source Technical challenge Environmentalimpacts

Canadian(Athabasca)tar sands

Bitumen combinedwith sand / rockunder boreal forests;close to surface

MODERATE

Strip mining or extraction bysteam; gas is used to heatthe sands and extract oil.

HIGH

Energy intensive extractionand destruction ofecosystems

Arctic oil Conventional oil infragile wildernessregion, both on andoffshore

LOWConventional drilling andextraction; Arctic oil hasbeen taken from PrudhoeBay for decades.

MODERATEFragile environment butproduction has relativelysmall footprint

West ofShetland,

Foinaven field

Conventional oil indeep ocean water

HIGH

Production began in 1997,

but using floating rigs

LOW

Low risk of spills and

limited impact on sea bed

USA (GreenRiver) oilshale

Bitumen encased insolid rock

MODERATE

Opencast mining, then canbe directly burnt or heatedto drive off oil.

HIGH

Large areas mined, scarringlandscape and energyintensive production


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Viable alternatives? The chart below shows the estimates oil price required for each

energy resource to be competitive with oil and gas without any form

of State support or subsidyEconomic viability of energy sources

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160

Conventional Oil Middle East

Conventional Oil other

Deep water oil

Oil Shale

Coal to liquids

Tar sands

Sugar cane ethanol

USA Corn ethanol

European biodiesel

Onshore wind

Offshore wind

Oil price US$

Source: the FT 2009


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Players

The diagram below summarises the role of some key players in the energysupply

EnergyPlayers

Governments

National energy mix;renewable policy;

subsidies and grants

Generators andDistributors

Vital infrastructure(National Grid) and power

stations

Environmentalists

Pressure to adoptrenewables and reduce

carbon intensity; campaigns

OPEC

Key role in the global oil price,by managing production

Scientists, R&D

Research into alterative fuelsand applications ; efficiency

gains

Energy TNCs

Exploration for reserves,exploitation and refining;

distribution of oil

Consumers

Often highly pricesensitive; can exert

pressure on politicians.


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Big oil: TNCs and OPEC

Supermajor andother oil and gasTNCs control mostoil and gasextraction,refining anddistribution.

State owned oilcompanies own /control access to95% of world oiland gas reserves

OPEC is

effectively a pricecontrol cartel,with considerablepower.

Supermajor TNCs State owned oil giants

Total Fr Saudi Aramco Saudi ArabiaBP UK Gazprom Russia

Shell UK/Nl CNPC China

Chevron USA Petrobras Brazil

ExxonMobil USA NOIC Iran

ConocoPhilips USA PDVSA Venezuela


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There are several keyuncertainties relating to

energy futures: Future demand is uncertain

it partly depends on future

population andeconomicgrowth

The lifespan of fossil fuel

reserves, especially oil, isunknown

The extent to which we

exploit unconventional oil

(see image)

The extent and timing ofswitching from fossil fuel to

renewables is uncertain.

Peak oil and gas areimportant; after peakproduction prices can only

rise.

3. Energy security and the future


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The nuclear option?

Opinion is divided over whethernuclear power is the answer

It provides about 15% of theworlds electricity, but only 2% of

all energy needs

There are over 400 reactors in 30countries, but few currently

being built

Advantages Disadvantages

Fuel sources (seemap)Low life cyclecarbon emissions.Constant poweroutputTakes up little

space .Large power outputper plant

Public distrust.High initial cost.Long build times.High level wastedisposal.Fears of terrorism.Nuclear

proliferation.Technicallychallenging


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Biofuels?

Biofuels have the advantage ofbeing flexible liquids

As such they can replace diesel(biodiesel) and petrol (bio-ethanol)

However, they require foodcrops as feedstocks (sugar cane,

maize etc) This means land that could be

used for food.

In 2007-08 explosive growth ofbiofuel crop area was blamed forpushing up global food prices

Biofuels are not carbon neutral,because of the energy used infarming, transport and refining.

Future biofuels might not use

food crops:1st generation food crops

2nd generation crop wastes3rd generation algae


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Geopolitics

There are a number of sources of tension, both present and future,related to energy security and the threat of insecurity:

Scenario Explanation Consequences

Oil hits $100 Sustained oil price of over $100 perbarrel, for several years.

Prolonged economic recessionand rising fuel poverty in OECDcountries

Middle Eastmeltdown

Tensions in the Gulf escalate into warbetween Muslim factions; possibly

involving Iran, Iraq, Israel, Syria, Turkeyand others.

Interruption of oil and gas flows;rising prices; tension between

China and USA to secure oil supply

The nuclearoption

Wholesale shifting towards nuclear toreplace fossil fuels, leads to global spreadof nuclear power and technology

Power stations become soft

targets for terrorism; enriched

uranium and depleted plutoniumget into the wrong hands.

Energysuperpowers

The Gulf States hold 60%+ of oil reservesand Russia/Qatar/ Iran 60%+ of gas; theworld has not shifted to renewables.

Energy superpowers begin toname their price and take care

of their friends; majorgeopolitical shifts

Arctic attack Canada, Russia, USA and EU begin toexploit the Arctic for oil and gas, butwithout clear delineation of territorialareas.

A war or words over who has theright to exploit what, quicklybecomes a new cold war possiblya hot one


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Future challenges

What are our energychallenges in 2010?

There are some thatare obvious:

Reduce dependency

on fossil fuels to

increase energy

security

Increase renewable

energy use as fossil

fuels become more

expensive / peak

Reduce greenhouse

gas emissions

Increase access to

energy in developing

nations

Mix it up

Wind, solar and others can be

used to diversify energysources.

This would increase security,but could also reducegreenhouse emissions.

Technology for allAid could be used to help

developing nations grow theirrenewable sectors

Intermediate technology iskey to this.

They need energy, butwithout greenhouse emissions.

Tax it downGreen taxes i.e. taxing fossilfuel use, could encourageefficiency

Greenhouse emissions would

fall as efficiency rises

The dirtiest fuels could betaxed the most.

Self generationHomes can generaterenewable energy using groundsource heat pumps, micro-windand solar PV / thermal

This would diversify theenergy mix, reduce emissionsand increase self-reliance.

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Unit 3 Contested Planet Energy Security