Universities for the 21Universities for the 21stst Century - Century - Nolens VolensNolens Volens

Strategic Options in a Changing Enrolment Landscape, MPHEC, Feb 12 2008

Assertion Assertion

The coming 20-year demographic crunch is the best thing that can happen to Maritime universities. It will force them to think deeply about what a 21st century university must be, and make them implement long-needed and essential changes. As a result they will emerge by 2026 undiminished in size and immeasurably stronger.

The Demographic CrunchThe Demographic Crunch

Between 2006 and 2026, the number of young people (19-24) will reduce by:

39.7% in Newfoundland30.6% in New Brunswick23.9% in Nova Scotia22.5% in Prince Edward Island

The Alleged Participation The Alleged Participation RateRate

AUCC: the participation rate for young adults (18-21) is 23.1%, so can easily rise.

How is it calculated?

True Young Adult True Young Adult Participation RateParticipation RateStatsCan has confirmed that the

true Young Adult participation rate is now 40% (and closer to 50% for young women.)

Is this above saturation rate?

Effect by 2026 of Reduced Effect by 2026 of Reduced Cohort Combined with Cohort Combined with Reduced Participation Reduced Participation

Newfoundland: decline of 55% New Brunswick: decline of 48%Nova Scotia: decline of 43%Prince Edward Island: decline of

42%

Cultural PressuresCultural PressuresUniversity for their newborn child is

now close to a universal aspiration for parents

90% of grade nine students say they want to go to university or college

The economy is ever-increasingly knowledge based

Governments are competing to up the educational ante, and are seeking participation rates of 50%+

Degree Attainment Rate by Degree Attainment Rate by Family Income (US, 2006)Family Income (US, 2006)

Top quartile: 72.6%Bottom quartile: 12.3%

University Growth - University Growth - ImplicationsImplications1950: 5% of young people enter

university. Median student is gifted.

1970: 15-20% of young people enter university. Median student is bright and energized.

2007: 40% of young people enter university. Median student is of normal ability, attending because it’s expected.

Some Recent UK & Some Recent UK & Australian Australian ProgramsPrograms BEng Renewable Energy Bachelor of Coaching

Science BA Events Management BEng Pollution Control BA Digital Arts BA Recruitment BA Professional

Communication BA Arts Management BA Sports Tourism BSc Security Technology BA Sports Journalism BSc Restoration Ecology BSc in Business Statistics BA Robotics BSc Hacking

Countermeasures

BSc Mobile Computing BSc Animation Technology BSc Interactive Media BA Sports Marketing BA Adventure Recreation BA Disaster Management BSc Fire Safety BSc Exercise and Nutrition BA Moving Image

Production BA Sonic Arts BSc Medialab Arts Bachelor of Property

Management BA Fundraising and

Sponsorship BA Managing a Small

Business

Summary: A Vision for Summary: A Vision for Maritime Universities in the Maritime Universities in the 2020s2020s

A university system which has ACCEPTED the challenge of taking in 45-50% of young people and thus provides the programs and the pedagogy SUITED to 45-50% of young people.

What is a University For?What is a University For?Our traditional conception:

universities are, above all else, concerned with the advancement of knowledge; gifted, bright and highly committed students have a role to play in this enterprise.

The external world’s conception: universities are, above all else, concerned with teaching: with bringing out the best in young people, preparing them for effective careers and citizenship.

The Challenge from Today’s The Challenge from Today’s StudentStudent“Students do not come to school to

learn…we come because a university education is deemed socially and economically necessary….we have been brainwashed into a game, whereby we memorize vast amounts of material, regurgitate it onto paper in a crowded room, and then forget about it. The academic environment has trained us to perform. Revolutionize the system! Start now. And make society, and academia a more productive and positive learning and living environment.”